May Pitchers Report
Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Horse racing fans recognize May as the month of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. For baseball purists May is simply the 2nd month of the 2016 MLB season. But for die-hard baseball fans, namely those who enjoy handicapping America’s pastime, it signals our annual May Good Month/Bad Month pitchers report.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in May, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.
Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s May list.
Good Month Pitchers
De La Rosa , Jorge • 11-3 (5-1 A)
The Colorado right-hander had a rough April and will look to find his groove this month. The normally reliable right-hander has start and stop windup and still has low 90's fastball with tail action. He will need to spot pitches better and have more control with slider and changeup to match past numbers. Update - Went on 15-day DL on 4/27 with groin.
Hernandez, Felix • 11-5 (8-3 A)
Though the "King" does not have the same velocity as a few years ago, he has more pitches he throws for strikes. Thus, he's not going to be as dominant as often, but he's making the transition away from pure power pitcher to smarter hurler to get batter out.
Hughes, Phil • 10-4 (6-1 H)
Never the ace many envisioned in his younger days with the Yankees, Hughes is a dependable starter for Minnesota, who commands low-90's fastball and spins a tight-curve. His walk-to-strikeout command is excellent but the biggest problem is staying focused inning after inning and has always been prone of losing concentration.
Porcello, Rick • 11-5 (8-1 A)
Sinker-ball pitcher who tried to become strikeout chucker with big contract in Boston last year and failed miserably. Has gone back to what he does best so far this season, which has batters beating the ball into the ground. A true No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the rotation whose not comfortable being depended on for more.
*Sale, Chris • 10-1 (5-0 A)
A true strikeout machine who, at 27, has gained the confidence to also be clubhouse leader. At 6'6 and thin, all arms and legs with funky left-side delivery, has mid to upper 90's fastball and catcher seldom has to move once target is set. Headliner of an overabundance of White Sox lefty starters.
*Scherzer, Max • 13-4 (6-1 H)
Since the middle of last season, has been pedestrian performer, more like was with Arizona, with ERA over 4.25. Scherzer depends on clean mechanics for velocity and tilt on breaking pitches. It seems to come and go without warning. Washington is looking for the pitcher they had the first half of last year as right-hand version of Clayton Kershaw when he was unhittable.
*Vogelsong, Ryan • 12-3 (6-1 A)
Now with Pittsburgh, lost starting job in spring training and now works in long relief or as spot starter. Not likely to change at 38 unless injuries occur.
*Weaver, Jered • 10-2 (6-1 H)
After shoulder issues in the spring related to tightness, which had his fastball topping out at 81-82, Weaver got stretched out and is now serviceable mid-rotation pitcher, who knows how to works counts and change speeds. Fastball still only in mid-80's but throws so many off-speed pitches his fastball is looking quicker to hitter's thus far.
Zimmermann, Jordan • 11-5 (7-1 H)
The formers Nats pitcher took an immediate liking to the American League and went 24 1/3 innings before giving up a run in 2016. Has four good pitches he can keep in the zone and is frontline hurler. For whatever reason, seldom pitches beyond the seventh inning.
Bad Month Pitchers
Hamels, Cole • 5-12 (2-6 A)
Has fit in comfortably at Texas, with still good fastball that moves late when low in the zone, excellent cutter and still one of the best changes in the game. Part of poor record is he's been on some bad teams of late in Philadelphia and has thrown better when the weather heats up, which is not a problem in Dallas.
Peralta, Wily • 3-12 (1-6 A)
Been hit hard thus far in 2016, not keeping fastball down and delivering too many room service sliders. Peralta lacks great stuff and even when he's at his best, not many swings and misses. Note: Figures represent career start marks.
Underachieving AL Pitchers
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Heading into the second month of the season there are several prominent pitchers off to disappointing starts. Here are a few American League starters that could be due for a turnaround in the coming weeks and may provide some value in some of their upcoming starts.
Mike Fiers - Houston Astros: The entire Astros team has had a very disappointing start to the season, considered by most to be a serious contender, but sitting with one of the worst records in baseball through the first month. Fiers joined the Astros last August and promptly threw a no-hitter in his fourth appearance with the team, but he pitched just one inning in the postseason and wasn’t a lock to earn a rotation spot this season. With a 4.97 ERA through five starts he has work to do but there is a lot to like about his profile.
Fiers has always produced great strikeout numbers and in five starts in 2016 he has posted 22 strikeouts against just three walks. He has allowed 34 hits in 29 innings, including seven home runs. The home run and hit rates seem likely to climb downward with more innings under his belt and despite good strikeout numbers so far this season, he is well short of the nearly 9.00 strikeout per nine innings rate he had last season over 30 starts. Houston’s relief pitching and defense should be better than they have been so far this season and the schedule over the next several weeks looks reasonable for Houston and Fiers to show improvement.
Matt Moore - Tampa Bay Rays: Moore has spent plenty of time on lists like this as a breakthrough candidate, but injuries and underperforming have been common themes since a tantalizing start to his career in 2011. Moore has 37 strikeouts in just over 36 innings pitching this season, but he has just one win in six starts and his ERA is approaching 5.00. He can’t seem to shake the occasional awful outing as the early May outing vs. the Dodgers shows with seven runs allowed in a 10-5 loss. He has had some bad luck this season with a very low rate of stranding runners on base and six home runs allowed in six starts.
Five of his six starts have been at home this season and for his career he has often had more success on the road with a lower career ERA and far fewer home runs allowed as he could see better results and also value in the upcoming schedule that should feature more road outings. Moore may never become the Cy Young contender many envisioned, but he looks healthy this season and with a great defense behind him and a Rays squad that is rarely overvalued there will be some good opportunities to support Moore in the weeks ahead. Moore will remain a candidate for a big strikeout night against many lineups that struggle against left-handed pitching.
Kendall Graveman - Oakland Athletics: Graveman had amazing numbers in spring training before the 2015 season which led Oakland to start him early last season. He didn’t prove ready and a mediocre start again in 2016 may be a bit concerning as well. Graveman has looked the part this season with 25 strikeouts in fewer than 29 innings and an xFIP nearly a full run lower than his mediocre 4.40 ERA through five starts. One bad outing in Detroit vs. one of the AL’s best lineups skews the numbers as in three of his five starts he allowed four or fewer hits. His control has been sound with just eight walks allowed and he has been a little unlucky to already have allowed five home runs.
Graveman gets ground balls at a strong rate and Oakland’s bullpen has been shored up after the disastrous results the Athletics had from relievers last season which should allow Graveman’s numbers to improve and more leads to be held in 2016. Oakland has looked like a team that will remain in the AL West mix most of the season and Graveman will offer much better value than the more heralded starters on the staff like Sonny Gray or Rich Hill.
Michael Pineda - New York Yankees: 2016 isn’t going well for the Yankees and Michael Pineda has really struggled with a 6.33 ERA through five starts. Pineda’s results have been puzzling as his xFIP is a very respectable 3.66 and he has 30 strikeouts in 27 innings as he is still inducing swings and misses at a great rate. His control has also been polished compared with some erratic command early in his career, but he has allowed a great deal of hits and home runs. Surprisingly he has made strong starts at Toronto and at Boston, but has had a pair of rough home outings including one against a marginal Tampa Bay lineup. He currently owns a .359 BABIP which is certain to climb downward as the innings add up and this is a Yankees team that looks likely to dig its way out of an early season hole. There may be rare underdog pricing on Pineda and the Yankees in the coming weeks and he is certainly a better pitcher than his April numbers show.
AL Cy Young Winners: Dallas Keuchel, Corey Kluber, and David Price have won three of the last four AL Cy Young awards, but all three have struggled in 2016. Kluber and Price both have typically had very poor early season track records and figure to turn things around as usual. Keuchel and the entire Astros team have been off to a tough start as well and should see a turnaround. Ultimately the prices will remain high on these big name starters but chalk players may start to catch improved value in the weeks ahead. The career track records and the advanced data suggest that all are pitching better than the conventional numbers currently display.
Underachieving NL Pitchers
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Heading into the second month of the season there are several prominent pitchers off to disappointing starts. Here are a few National League starters that could be due for a turnaround in the coming weeks and may provide some value in some of their upcoming starts.
Jose Fernandez - Miami Marlins: The Marlins have quietly been one of the hottest teams in baseball the past two weeks with a 10-1 run through May 5 including getting sweeps over the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. While the attention in the NL East is rightfully on the Mets and Nationals, Miami may have the tools to slide into the Wild Card picture this season. The solid record comes even with the disappointing news of Dee Gordon being suspended as well as a bit of a struggle through six starts for ace Jose Fernandez.
With a 4.28 ERA, Fernandez has battled in the early going without a scoreless start and without going further than six innings in any game. His 47 strikeouts in fewer than 34 innings will tell you that his stuff is still top shelf and he has been unlucky with a .360 BABIP so far this season. Pitching on an overlooked Marlins team, Fernandez won’t be overvalued like some of the big name pitchers on high profile squads and his conventional numbers figure to only improve the rest of the way.
Zack Greinke - Arizona Diamondbacks: Twice this season, Greinke has allowed seven runs in an outing to boost his ERA up to 5.50 on the season. Greinke’s strikeout rate has been down so far this season and he has allowed 47 hits in fewer than 38 innings of work. He still has very impressive command and he should find better results as through six starts his FIP is nearly two runs lower than his ERA and he has been burned by a very high batting average on balls in play as well as a very low rate of stranding runners as a third of his base runners have come around to score. Trading Dodger Stadium for Chase Field means Greinke likely won’t match his dominant 2015 season numbers, but any suggestion that Greinke is no longer an elite starter in the NL is foolish.
John Lackey - Chicago Cubs: Supporting Jake Arrieta or Jon Lester for the red-hot Cubs costs a severe premium, but veteran John Lackey can still be found for reasonable prices in many outings. Lackey owns an average 4.32 ERA but he has done a good job of keeping runners off the bases only to see almost 40 percent of those base runners come around to score. Lackey finished with a 2.77 ERA last season for the Cardinals with only about 17 percent of base runners scoring with him on the mound.
Expect his 2016 numbers to fall somewhere in the middle of those two figures and Lackey is a good candidate to have improved numbers in the coming weeks. With baseball’s best record, the Cubs are likely to be favored almost every night, but Lackey will likely be relatively discounted compared with the rest of the staff until his conventional numbers improve with a six-run 2016 debut still weighing on his season statistics.
Alex Wood - Los Angeles Dodgers: With a great 2014 season and strong numbers in 20 starts for the Braves last season, Alex Wood was acquired for the stretch run with the Dodgers last season. He didn’t have the same success despite moving to a more favorable ballpark and playing with a better team behind him, eventually relegated to only mop-up duty in the playoffs. Wood looked like a promising candidate to help the Dodgers get through the early season injuries in the rotation, but he hasn’t gotten the job done so far with a 5.18 ERA in six starts and the Dodgers only going 2-4 behind him.
Wood had a rough opening start, but since that game he has not allowed more than seven hits in any start and over his last three outings he has 21 strikeouts against just four walks. A .324 BABIP has hurt his cause as well as a very low rate of stranding runners so far through six starts. He has had to make a start in Colorado already this season and he has only pitched twice at home, making his best two starts of the season at Dodger Stadium. As a left-hander with an unconventional delivery, Wood looks like a good bet to show improvement in the coming months and he may be worth a look in upcoming home starts with much more modest pricing compared with Clayton Kershaw or Kenta Maeda.
Jerad Eickhoff - Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez are rightfully getting some attention for the surprising Phillies, but Eickhoff also deserves to be looked at as a quality prospect with potential even if his ceiling is a bit lower. Eickhoff is having a lot of success with his curveball and while he is just 1-4 this season he has a nearly 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In five of his six starts, he has allowed six or fewer hits and he has a 2.25 ERA in his home starts.
Even with the strong start to the season, the Phillies seem likely to be dogged almost every game this season and the prices will be much more favorable with Eickhoff on the mound in comparison to Velasquez or Nola, especially with the early season numbers that have been generated. In 14 big league starts, Eickhoff has 83 strikeouts while walking just 20 batters and that type of command and swing-and-miss potential is likely to lead to success even if the first month of the season has not gone as well as would be expected.
MLB Weekly Dose 5/25-28
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com
5/25--Chicago Cubs (Arrieta) @ Saint Louis (Martinez)---While Jake Arrieta remains the best pitcher in the Majors, it can’t go unnoticed that the Cardinals are 5-0 all time in Carlos Martinez starts against the Cubs. Martinez has been listed anywhere from a -109 to a -138 in his four career home starts vs the Cubs. I could see this being a potential one run game and with the Cardinals being a MLB best 15-4 (79%) +1.5 runs as a home underdog since 2014, I think that the Cardinals are worth a second look Wednesday night on the Run line.
5/26--Colorado (Gray) @ Boston (Buchholz)----Jon Gray for the Rockies is an ‘under-the-radar’ pitcher for the Rockies. Gray is coming off a short lived 3.1 inning outing where he gave up 9 runs vs. the Cardinals, so he won’t get much notice from the public or respect from the oddsmaker. The Rockies have a lineup that is capable of going ‘toe to toe’ with the Red Sox, especially since they are facing Clay Buchholz who has given up 5 earned runs in five of his nine starts already this season. His 5.48 FIP holds true to his 5.92 ERA on the season. The oddsmakers have been forced to start to inflate the Red Sox lines when playing at Fenway park, giving value to the underdog when the correct pitching/hitting matchup can be found. I feel this is a potential one with a nice pay off. Let’s take a closer look at the Rockies if a +150 or more underdog on Wednesday.
5/27--Philly (Morgan) @ Chicago Cubs (Lester)---The Phillies starting rotation has been stellar this season other than that of Adam Morgan. Morgan has a 5.66 ERA this month and the Phillies have lost three of his four starts. The one win came against the Braves so nothing to brag on there. This is a day game at Wrigley Field and one for Jon Lester to rebound off of after a rare 2.2 inning outing vs the Giants over the weekend. Lester just didn’t have his ‘stuff’ working last Saturday but he is a good enough pitcher to easily bounceback in form his next outing. Opposing batters are hitting only .190 vs Lester in Wrigley this season and he has 38K in only 33 IP. The Phillies are ranked 28th (only the Twins and Braves are worse) in weighted On Base Average vs. left handed starters this season. The Phillies offense remains one of the worst while the Cubs bats are overdue for an offensive explosion if it hasn’t happened yet. I don’t mind looking to lay the -1.5 runs here with this matchup that I feel is warranted.
5/28--Reds (Simon) @ Brewers (Anderson)---It’s only a matter of time before Alfredo Simon either gets demoted to the bullpen or the minors. Until then, he is on my ‘auto fade’ and ‘auto-over’ list. His 10.16 ERA/ 2.15 WHIP is proof in the pudding. Chase Anderson for the Brewers has already given up 12 homeruns this season and got tagged for 6 runs in a starts against the Reds earlier this month in a 9-5 game. The Reds have the worst bullpen in the Majors and the Brewers aren’t far behind. If you like this game ‘over’, then I suggest taking a position on it when the overnight line is posted, because it will more than likely go up at least a half if not a full run by game time.
Some of these pitching matchup might change, so it’s always good to check daily for changes and injuries, etc.