May's Good Month And Bad Month Pitchers
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May.
On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds • 12-4
The Cincinnati right-hander was very sharp in April, with right hand hitters batting .127 against him. Cueto uses a low to mid-90s fastball and tilted slider that he expertly changes speeds with.
Yovanni Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers • 12-5
Gallardo is the ace of the Milwaukee staff and challenges hitters with a 90-95 mph fastball and a late-breaking slider. His curveball spins tightly and has excellent downward movement and he’ll mix in the occasional change to give hitters something different to look at. Gallardo has not been up to his usual standards just yet, having trouble with left-hand batters.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies • 13-3
Hamels is an underappreciated hurler who great command. The Phillies' lefty mixes two and four-seam fastballs in the low 90s and thanks to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, has developed a nasty cutter he can work both sides of the plate with. When he throws his two-strike changeup, batters swear it seems to back up, like Hamels has it on a string.
Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins • 10-5
After a rocky start, Johnson has begun to find a groove utilizing his hard slider and fastball combination. If the Marlins top pitcher can regain his command, he will start missing more bats (opponents hit .337 against him in April) and be the top thrower Miami needs to compete in the NL East.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers • 12-6
One of the best lefties in baseball has developed the skill to command his four-pitch repertoire. Still only 24 years old, Kershaw can throw strikes whenever and wherever he wants. His continued growth has seen his ground ball-to-fly ball outs skyrocket this season.
Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox • 12-6
Normally, Lester is one of the finest early season pitchers in the American League, but his walks were up significantly for April (until his final start of the month vs. Chicago) and that number will have to come down in May to match previous win totals. Reports indicate his delivery has been a bit rushed causing pitches to sail up and away.
Derek Lowe, Cleveland Indians • 13-5
Lowe might not be as old as Jamie Moyer, but he seems to have been around as long. Lowe will be 39 years old on June 1 and no longer has the velocity with his sinker/slider combo package. Strictly fifth starter material and at his age, will be more effective early in the season than late, when the innings take their toll.
Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox • 11-5
Is Jake Peavy finally healthy? It sure seems that way as early returns have a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opposing batters are hitting just .162 versus the White Sox right-hander. The fastball is not the same as younger days, but the snap on his breaking pitches is still deadly.
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers • 10-4
Though just 23, Porcello has not accelerated at the same pace as Kershaw, leaving Detroit fans yearning for more. For a guy 6-foot-6 with a rangy body, his career 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings is unremarkable. The Tigers hurler needs to trust his mid-90s fastball more to become the pitcher he should be.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays • 9-4
Have you noticed that four of May’s top performers are left-handed? The last in alphabetical order is Tampa Bay’s prized possession, David Price. The Nashville native has a nice loose delivery from the three-quarters arm slot and has lively late-moving fastball that occasionally touches 96-97 mph.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers • 13-5
Arguably the best pitcher in baseball who is at the peak of his skills, Verlander has old-school power and often will have greater velocity late in games with his electric fastball.The Detroit ace also keeps hitters off-balance by varying his pitch patterns.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox • 4-11
The White Sox right-hander is very close to a .500 record in his big league career, despite always giving the appearance of having better stuff. Floyd, actually has three dependable pitches, but has a tendency to run hot or cold for a series of starts. May has traditionally been a cold month for him.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners • 5-13
King Felix deserves his fair share of the blame for his rumpled record this month, but this is not all on him. Except for a couple of surprise seasons in 2009 and 2007, Seattle hasn't been a good team and its schedule over the past several years in May has featured many of the heavyweights in baseball.
Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians • 4-12
The Jamaican born right-hander has been on shabby Cleveland teams for the most part. Masterson is a rare side-armed starter and tosses a heavy sinker along with a low 90s fastball. He gets in trouble when he can't control the movement of his pitches. To start the month, lefties are hitting .281 against Masterson.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels • 6-12
It is almost inconceivable the Angels' top pitcher would ever have a bad month based on his history. Similar to Hernandez, the Halos and Weaver end up playing Boston and the Yankees frequently during this time period, along with division games, which has contributed to the poor record.
Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs • 3-8
The 6-foot-6 Cubs pitcher is actually a converted catcher. Wells leans on location because of his well-below average fastball and will use a change-up more than once to hitters in their time at bat. When Wells cannot spot his pitches, he’s throwing room service pitches.
Pitchers to Watch
By ASAWins.com
Each year there are a few names that pop up on the early season lists of who’s hot and who’s not. This season is no different. We’re going to take a look at some of the pitchers that are making headlines, for better or worse, a month into the 2012 season.
Here’s a guide to some of the abbreviations used in this article:
ERA: Earned Run Average
WHIP: Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched
BABIP: Batting Average on Balls In Play
K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings
OVERACHIEVERS
Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse – St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook (1.30), Lynn (1.33), and Lohse (1.62) all rank in the top 10 in the MLB in ERA and are a combined 11-1. None of the three are big strikeout pitchers as Lohse leads the way with 24 K’s, which is tied for 52nd in the MLB. But they’ve given up just 19 walks in 88 combined innings, and each have their own areas of expertise. Lynn has the 2nd lowest WHIP in the NL. Westbrook is 2nd in the NL in forced ground balls. Lohse is 6th in the NL in BABIP. All three have benefitted from a strong offense as Westbrook and Lynn rank in the top eight in the NL in run support and Lohse isn’t far behind with 5.7 runs per game. It’s likely that the St. Louis offense will cool down a bit and batters will start figuring these three out more as the season goes on.
Steven Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals
These two are the main reason that the Nationals are the #1 pitching team in the MLB through one month. Strasburg is 2-0 in five starts with a 1.13 ERA (2nd in the NL). No one knew if he’d return to his power pitching ways after undergoing Tommy John surgery last winter, but he’s tied for 3rd in the NL in strikeouts so it appears that he hasn’t lost much velocity. Gonzalez is tied with Strasburg with 34 strikeouts and he also ranks 12th in WHIP and ERA in the NL. Gonzalez also ranks 3rd in the NL in opponents’ batting average, holding batters to just .155 average so far this season.
Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
Cain leads the NL in WHIP and ranks 2nd in opponents’ batting average, surrendering just .154 to opposing hitters. He also has 30 strikeouts compared to just six walks in 38 innings, but only has a 1-2 record to show. That’s because the Giants’ offense is averaging just 3.52 runs in his five starts, including just four total runs in the previous three outings. Cain is a star entering his prime and we expect him to continue to dominate the rest of this season.
Yu Darvish – Texas Rangers
Darvish made a very public transition from Japan to the Rangers this offseason, but I don’t think anyone anticipated a start like this. Darvish is 4-0 and ranks 5th in the AL in ERA at 2.18. The Rangers have won each of Darvish’s five starts, including a 2-0 win over the Yankees in which Yu went 8.1 innings and struck out 10. There are a couple of areas for concern, however, as the Rangers average nine runs per game in his starts, a number that will be hard to maintain. Also, Darvish averages 9.00 K/9 and ranks 5th in the AL in strikeouts, but when he’s not getting strikeouts, opposing hitters are averaging .305 BABIP against Darvish.
UNDERACHIEVERS
Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
Buchholz is one of many areas of concern for the Boston to start this season. Buchholz has allowed 28 runs through 29 innings of play. He also has just 16 strikeouts and 15 walks. He boats below average 1.90 WHIP and .317 BABIP, but is somehow 3-1, mostly due to the fact that the Sox have scored an average of nine runs per game in his five starts. Buchholz was a combined 30-14 over the past three seasons and has a career 3.95 ERA, so expect him to shake off the rust as the year drags on.
Josh Johnson – Miami Marlins
Coming off of a serious shoulder injury in 2011, Johnson was expected to take a bit of a step back in terms of production. But no one expected him to struggle this much. Johnson is 0-3 and opponents are hitting .350 against him. He has a 5.34 ERA, .402 BABIP, and a 1.74 WHIP. To make matters worse, Johnson isn’t getting the strikeouts he is accustomed to (just 7.85 K/9) and offensively the Marlins are averaging just 3.77 runs per game with him on the mound.
Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
Gallardo has a 1-2 record with a 6.08 ERA. Opponents are batting .306 against him and he owns a .354 BABIP and a 1.65 WHIP. The good news is that he’s still getting the strikeouts at a rate of 9.11 K/9. But, much like Josh Johnson, the Brewers offense is averaging just 4.73 runs per game when he pitches. He’s also terrible against division rival St. Louis. Gallardo is already 0-2 against the Cards this season, allowing 14 ER, 4 HR, and 7 BB in just 5.2 innings of work.
Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
It looks as though Lincecum has started to right the ship, with back to back wins with just one ER in 13 innings of work in his last two outings (albeit against the offensively challenged Mets and Padres). But his first three starts were so bad that it’s worth noting. Lincecum is allowing .346 BABIP, 1.58 WHIP and has a 5.74 ERA. He still has a strong strikeout rate 9.79 K/9 and his offense is averaging 7.43 runs per start. Expect the former Cy Young winner to get back to form as the season continues into summer.