MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, April 28th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Pirates @ Marlins
Taillon is 1-0, 2.49 in four starts this month (under 2-1-1).
Conley 1-0, 2.65 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Pirates lost six of last nine games; they’re 3-6 on road (under 8-1). Miami is 3-5 in its last eight games; they’re 4-2 at home. Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Mets @ Nationals
deGrom is 0-1, 2.55 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Scherzer is 3-1, 2.60 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Mets lost six in row, 10 of last 11 games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Washington won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 6-3 at home. Last four Nationals’ games went over.
Braves @ Brewers
Colon is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Anderson is 2-0, 1.88 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Braves won last two games but are 4-9 on road; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Milwaukee won its last three games; over is 8-1 in its last nine home games.
Reds @ St Louis
Adleman allowed two runs in six IP (92 pT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-5 loss in Chicago.
Lynn is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts (over 2-2).
Reds lost three in row, seven of last eight games; their last six games went over. St Louis is 8-2 in its last ten games, 5-1 in last six at home. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Freeland is 2-1, 3.32 in four starts this month (under 4-0).
Ray is 3-0, 3.80 in four starts this month (over 2-2); Arizona scored 28 runs in the four games.
Rockies lost their last three games; under is 7-1 in their last eight road tilts, 6-1 in last seven overall (all at Coors). Arizona is 11-3 at home (over 11-3).
Phillies @ Dodgers
Eickhoff is 0-1, 2.92 in four starts this month (under 3-1). Phils scored 11 runs in the four games.
Maeda is 1-2, 8.05 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Phillies won their last six games; four of their last five stayed under. Dodgers are 4-5 in their last nine games; their last four home games stayed under.
Padres @ Giants
Perdomo is 0-1, 6.97 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Samardzija is 0-4, 7.40 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Padres lost five of their last six games; five of their last six road games went over. San Francisco lost six of its last eight games; under is 8-1-2 in their home games.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays
Snell is 0-1, 5.51 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Stroman is 2-2, 3.41 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Rays lost five of their last six road games; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Toronto is 4-7 in its last 11 games, 2-7 at home- their last three games went over.
Orioles @ Bronx
Gausman is 0-2, 14.63 in his last two starts (under 3-2).
Sabathia is 2-1, 3.09 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Orioles won six of last eight games; they’re 6-3 on road. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Bronx won 12 of last 15 games, is 8-1 at home- their last three games stayed under.
Mariners @ Indians
Miranda is 1-2, 4.35 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Carrasco is 2-1, 1.65 in four starts this month (under 4-0).
Mariners won three of last four games; under is 8-5-1 in their road games. Cleveland won seven of last nine games; five of their last six games stayed under.
White Sox @ Tigers
Former Tiger Pelfrey allowed four runs in 4.1 IP (81 PT) in his first ’17 start, 7-0 loss to the Indians.
Boyd is 2-0, 1.65 in his last three starts (under 2-1-1).
White Sox won their last four games, scoring 33 runs. Under is 13-5 in their last 18 games. Detroit is 6-4 at home; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight games overall.
Angels @ Rangers
Skaggs is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two starts (under 2-1-1).
Martinez allowed one run in seven IP (94 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 win over KC.
Angels won five of their last six games; their last nine road games stayed under. Texas won six of its last eight home games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine.
A’s @ Astros
Cotton is 2-1, 3.44 in his last three starts (under 4-0). Oakland scored six runs in his four starts.
Morton is 1-2, 4.29 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
A’s lost their last four games, scoring eight runs. Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Houston won four of last five home tilts; under is 9-2 in their home games.
Twins @ Royals
Gibson is 0-3, 11.25 in his last three starts (under 3-1).
Kennedy is 0-1, 1.29 in his last three starts (under 3-1). Royals scored three runs in his four starts.
Twins lost seven of last ten games; they’re 5-4 on road. Over is 4-1-3 in their last eight games. Kansas City is off an 0-7 road trip; they’re 5-3 at home. Under is 11-2 in their last 13 games overall.
Interleague
Cubs @ Red Sox
Arrieta is 3-0, 4.38 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Pomeranz is 1-1, 4.60 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Cubs won six of their last eight games; they’re 8-4 on road. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Boston lost four of its last five games; their last seven games stayed under.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Pit-Mia: Taillon 1-3; Conley 2-1
NY-Wsh: deGrom 1-3; Scherzer 3-1
Atl-Mil: Colon 2-2; Anderson 2-2
Cin-StL: Adleman 0-1; Lynn 2-2
Colo-Az: Freeland 3-1; Ray 4-0
Phil-LA: Eickhoff 1-3; Maeda 2-2
SD-SF: Perdomo 1-1; Samardzija 0-4
American League
TB-Tor: Snell 1-2; Stroman 2-2
Balt-NY: Gausman 3-2; Sabathia 3-1
Sea-Clev: Miranda 2-2; Carrasco 3-1
Chi-Det: Pelfrey 0-1; Boyd 3-1
LA-Tex: Skaggs 2-2; Martinez 1-0
A’s-Hst: Cotton 2-2; Morton 2-2
Min-KC: Gibson 1-3; Kennedy 1-3
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Arrieta 3-1; Pomeranz 2-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Pitt-Mia: Taillon 0-4; Conley 2-3
NY-Wsh: deGrom 1-4; Scherzer 2-4
Atl-Mil: Colon 1-4; Anderson 1-4
Cin-StL: Adleman 0-1; Lynn 1-4
Colo-Az: Freeland 1-4; Ray 1-4
Phil-LA: Eickhoff 1-4; Maeda 2-4
SD-SF: Perdomo 1-2; Samardzija 2-4
American League
TB-Tor: Snell 0-3; Stroman 0-4
Balt-NY: Gausman 2-5; Sabathia 1-4
Sea-Clev: Miranda 3-4; Carrasco 0-4
Chi-Det: Pelfrey 1-1; Boyd 0-4
LA-Tex: Skaggs 2-4; Martinez 0-1
A’s-Hst: Cotton 2-4; Morton 0-4
Min-KC: Gibson 0-4; Kennedy 0-4
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Arrieta 1-4; Pomeranz 1-3
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
This weekend, World Series Champion Chicago Cubs visit Fenway Park for a three game inter-league set against Boston Red Sox. The Cubs entering 12-9 on the campaign, 8-4 in unfriendly territory, 16-8 on the road vs the Junior league are expected to open the series handing the ball to Jake Arrieta. The right-hander carries a 3-0 record to the mound with a 3-1 Team Start Record. Arrieta has faced Boston just once as a Cubbie flirting with a no-hitter giving up up one hit over 7 2/3 innings.
Red Sox 11-10 overall, 7-4 in front of the home audience, 19-4 at Fenway vs the Senior Circuit counter with Drew Pomerance. The Red Sox lefty 1-1 over three starts (2-1 TSR) last faced Cubs in 2016 as a member of the Padres tossing six shoutout innings, strking out 10 walking off with the 'W'.
John Lackey gets the call in game two for Cubbies. Lackey has struggled in each of his last three strats getting tagged for 5 long ball 12 runs, all losses giving the hurler a 1-3 TSR on the year. Lackey trades pitches with Steven Wright. The knuckle-baller is 1-2 saddled with a whopping 8.66 ERA over four starts (1-3 TSR).
The finale, features Cubbies Kyle Hendricks and Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez on respective mounds. Kendricks scattered four hits over six scoreless innings in a 1-0 win last effort moving to 2-1 on the season with a 3-1 Team Start Record. Boston's lefty Rodriguez is off a 6 inning 1 hit gem moving to 1-1 over three starts, 1 relief appearance. Rodriguez has not been a pegg to hang your hopes on at Fenway Park. In his last 10 appearance the result has been 2 wins, 8 losses for Red Sox.
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Phillies (6-0 last six) at Dodgers
Philadelphia finished off a perfect 5-0 homestand after sweeping Atlanta and Miami to leap above the .500 mark. The Phillies won three games by one run apiece, including Thursday’s 3-2 victory over the Marlins to win their third consecutive series.
A seven-game road trip for the Phillies begins in Los Angeles as Philadelphia will face both teams that played for the National League pennant (Dodgers and Cubs). In fact, 16 of the next 18 games for the Phillies take place against playoff squads from last season. Philadelphia sends out Jerad Eickhoff to the mound in the series opener at Dodger Stadium, as the Phillies own a 1-3 record with the right-hander on the hill even though he has allowed two runs or less three times in April.
Coldest team: Mets (1-10 last 11) at Nationals
Who would have thought at this point in the season that New York would be sitting at the bottom of the NL East? The Mets are coming off a dreadful 1-7 homestand, punctuated by consecutive losses to the Braves. In the previous series, the Nationals pulled off a three-game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field, while scoring only seven runs.
New York has needed to shuffle its rotation the last few days with ace Noah Syndergaard getting bumped to arm soreness. Jacob deGrom looks to stop the bleeding in the series opener at Nationals Park as the Mets’ right-hander is winless in four starts. deGrom struck out 10 batters in 5.2 innings against Washington last Saturday in a 3-1 defeat as a -110 favorite, as the 28-year old will be listed as an underdog on Friday opposite Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer.
Hottest pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, Indians (2-1, 1.65 ERA)
Cleveland is coming off its third consecutive series victory after edging Houston on Thursday, 4-3. Carrasco is fresh off his best start of the young season by tossing eight scoreless innings and scattering three hits in a 7-0 rout of the White Sox as a heavy road favorite. The righty will be listed as a favorite of -200 or higher for the fourth straight start against Seattle on Friday, as Carrasco has given up five earned runs in his first four outings.
Coldest pitcher: Jeff Samardzija, Giants (0-4, 7.40 ERA)
San Francisco has been the biggest disaster this season in the National League at 8-15 and in the NL West cellar. What’s not helping is the lack of success from Samardzjia, who has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his four starts this season. The former Notre Dame football standout was knocked around at Colorado in his last outing by giving up seven earned runs in 5.1 innings in an 8-0 defeat. Samardzija faces the Padres as San Francisco won four of his six starts against San Diego last season.
Biggest OVER run: Reds (6-0 last six)
Cincinnati began the season on fire at 7-2, but its pitching has let them down of late. The Reds have dropped seven of their past eight games, while allowing a total of 29 runs in a three-game sweep by the Brewers. During this current six-game OVER streak, the Reds have given up at least five runs each time, but managed to plate seven runs or more three times. Tim Adleman takes the hill for Cincinnati, as he cashed the UNDER in four of his final five road starts last season.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (1-10 on road)
The Yankees currently have the longest UNDER streak in baseball at only three, but we’ll focus on Los Angeles with its prowess to hit UNDERS on the highway. The Halos’ offense has been miserable away from Orange County by scoring two runs or less in seven of their last eight road contests. The Angels travel to Texas for a weekend series as Los Angeles scored a total of six runs in the final two losses to the Rangers earlier this month. Tyler Skaggs gets the start for L.A. as the Angels have finished UNDER the total in each of his two road outings this season.
Matchup to watch: Cubs vs. Red Sox
Two of the legendary franchises in baseball meet at Fenway Park for the first time since 2014 when Chicago pulled off a three-game sweep. The defending champions still haven’t swept a series this season as the Cubs fell to the Pirates on Wednesday, 6-5 as -150 road favorites. Chicago eclipsed the OVER for the eighth time in the last nine contests, while the Cubs look to improve on a 5-0 mark against left-handed starting pitchers.
Drew Pomeranz gets the call for Boston in the opener as the southpaw lost in his last start at Baltimore, 2-0. Pomeranz yielded five hits and two earned runs in 5.1 innings, as the Red Sox dropped one of his starts for the first time since last September. The Red Sox have compiled a 2-5 record the last seven games, while scoring only one run total in a pair of defeats to the rival Yankees at home.
Jake Arrieta counters for the Cubs, as the former Cy Young winner makes his fourth road start of the season. The right-hander owns a perfect 3-0 record in his three starts away from Wrigley Field, while eight of his past nine outings dating back to last September have come on the highway. Arrieta dominated the Red Sox three years ago in their previous matchup by allowing one hit in 7.2 innings and striking out 10 in a 2-0 shutout.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros have complete ownership of the Athletics by capturing nine straight meetings in the series since last July. Houston pulled off a two-game road sweep of Oakland two weeks ago, as the two AL West rivals hook up at Minute Maid Park on Friday. After closing out last season by losing four straight home series openers, the Astros have started 2-1 in Game 1’s at Minute Maid Park, including two shutouts.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-200) vs. Mariners
Biggest public underdog: Twins (+115) at Royals
Biggest line move: Dodgers (-165 to -185) vs. Phillies
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Before the season started the Colorado Rockies were 60/1 (Bet $100 to win $6,000) to win the World Series and the Arizona Diamondbacks were 100/1 (Bet $100 to win $10,000). After just one month of play those odds have been slashed in half as both have controlled the National League West division. They hook up in Phoenix for a three-game set in what is the most intriguing series of the weekend.
Most of us came into spring training with the mindset that the Giants and Dodgers would be battling once again for the NL West crown. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and the Giants have Bruce Bochy. That's just how the order of things work in the NL West, or at least that's the way things have been. So far in 2017, the Dodgers and Giants both have losing records.
Arizona (15-9) took over first-place by a half-game last night with a 6-2 win over the Padres following Colorado's 16-5 afternoon loss to the Nationals. The Rockies (14-9) pitching staff showed its first sign of being over-matched by any team allowing the Nats 46 runs over the four-game series in which Washington won the last three.
The Diamondbacks recipe for success has been playing at Chase Field where they've gone 11-3 averaging 7.2 runs a game while batting .320. In 10 road games they've gone 4-6. They gotten steady starting pitching with a bullpen that has been surprisingly good. New closer Fernando Rodney had started the season going 6-for-6 in save opportunities until giving up five runs in the ninth against San Diego on Wednesday.
All the Arizona bats seem to be clicking at the same time with seven of its regulars hitting .291 or higher. Buried within all the impressive hitting numbers is the fact that their 27 steals lead baseball. The combination of speed and power have helped Arizona be the most profitable team at +8.4 units. Colorado is fourth-best at +6.0 units.
The Diamondbacks have gone 12-7 at home against the Rockies in the past three seasons and the Over has gone 12-5-2. In all meetings the past three seasons, including Coors Field, 25 of the 36 games have gone Over. This season, Arizona has gone 10-3-1 to the Over at Chase Field. Look for the Over trend to continue this weekend.
Scheduled rotation: Robbie Ray (2-0) vs Kyle Freeland (2-1), Zack Greinke (2-2) vs. Tyler Anderson (1-3), Patrick Corbin (2-3) vs. German Marquez (0-1)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -175, Rockies +155
Here's a look some of the series I'm excited to watch this weekend:
Baltimore (14-6) at New York Yankees (13-7)
Scheduled rotation: Gausman (1-2) vs. Sabathia (2-1), Jimenez (1-0) vs. Pineda (2-1), Miley (1-1) vs. Montgomery (1-1)
Series Price: Yankees -160, Orioles +135
The Yankees come off a five game road trip, winning three of them -- the last two at Fenway Park. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball having won 12 of their last 15, including going 8-1 on their only home stand. Baltimore comes in as the third most profitable team (+7.4 units) and have won six of its last eight road games. They are the AL East leader. This is what Baltimore does every year under Buck Showalter. They also like facing C.C. Sabathia, going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
New York Mets (8-13) at Washington (16-6)
Scheduled rotation: DeGrom (0-1) vs. Scherzer (3-1), Wheeler (1-2) vs. Strasburg (2-0), Syndergaard (1-1) vs. Ross (1-0)
Series Price: Nationals -200, Mets +170
The Mets are on a 1-10 run have their highest rated daily player, Yoenis Cespedes, doubtful with a strained hamstring. They look every bit like a last-place team. They've belted 30 homers, but bat an NL-low .209. They've been hard to watch nightly. The first-place Nationals are the complete opposite. They're fun to watch leading baseball with 6.3 runs a game, a .284 batting average and .842 OPS. Washington comes off a sweep at Coors Field and have won 10 of its last 11, which includes a sweep last weekend against the Mets at Citi Field. Another sweep here?
Chicago Cubs (12-9) at Boston (11-10)
Scheduled rotation: Arrieta (3-0) vs Pomeranz (1-1), Lackey (1-3) vs. Wright (1-2), Hendricks (2-1) vs. Rodriguez (1-1)
Series Price: Cubs -120, Red Sox +100
Theo Epstein built teams that ended Boston's 86 year drought and he also ended Chicago's 108 year wait. He's a baseball hero on a level never seen before. He's a Hall-of-Famer now and a Cubs-Red Sox world series is certainly a possibility. They're both favorites to win the pennant -- Cubs are 2-to-1 while the Red Sox are 3-to-1 co-favorites with two others. The two teams last met for three in 2014 at Fenway Park with the Cubs sweeping.
The Sox haven't found their groove yet this season losing four of their last five. The Cubs have won six of their last eight and taken over the NL Central lead. Boston has gone 7-0-1 to the Under in its last eight games. The best news for Cubs is they have to face Chris Sale, who pitched Thursday in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees. The Cubs look collectively better than the Red Sox right now; the series price looks cheap.
Cincinnati (10-12) at St. Louis (11-11)
Scheduled rotation: Adelman (0-0) vs. Lynn (2-1), Arroyo (2-2) vs. Leake (3-1), Garrett (2-2) vs. Wacha (2-1)
Series Price: Cardinals -215, Reds +175
Cincinnati took two of three at St. Louis three weeks ago, but both these teams are playing drastically different right now. Everything I hated about the Reds that I was wrong about in the first three weeks is starting to come true again as they've lost seven of their last eight. The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 and believe that's the real version of the squad, showed what they hope is their real team, not the team that started 3-9.
With Cincinnati's pitching staff coming back to earth allowing 48 runs in its last five, the total Over in this series might offer value. St. Louis has gone Over in in last four games and Cincinnati is on a six game Over streak.