MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, April 29

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay

An up coming three-game series between Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays should grab the attention of 'Under' gamblers. Tampa Bay hit-and-miss offense batting 2.25 platting 3.8 runs/game have played 'Under' posted totals 61.9 percent of the time recording 13 'Under' 5 'Over' and 3 'Push'. Blue Jays unable to find a consistent stroke at the plate crossing 3.9 runs/game have certainly followed in that same vein going 13-8-3 'Under' on the campaign.

Rays 10-2-1 'Under' before the home audience, Blue Jays with a penchant for making 'Under' bettors happy in an opposing park at 9-1-1 'Under', the arrow is clearly pointing toward 'Under' this weekend.

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Phillies (6-1 last seven)

Didn’t think that Philadelphia would be featured in this spot this season much less in April. The Phillies shocked the Nationals by pulling off a three-game sweep, while pulling off back-to-back shutouts. Philadelphia wrapped up a six-game road trip with consecutive series victories over Milwaukee and Washington to improve to 12-10. The Phillies host the Indians this weekend at Citizens Bank Park, as Cleveland owns a 5-13 record in Corey Kluber’s last 18 road starts since the beginning of the 2015 season.

Coldest team: Reds (1-8 on road)

Cincinnati has won only once away from the Great American Ballpark this season in nine tries, as the Reds begin a weekend set at Pittsburgh. Since taking two of three from the Pirates earlier this month, the Reds have lost nine of their last 11 games against NL Central opponents. Cincinnati’s road woes continued by getting swept this week by the Mets, as the Reds have scored three runs or less in all eight road defeats. The Reds competed well at PNC Park last season by winning five of nine meetings at Pittsburgh, while each series opener at PNC in 2015 went OVER the total.

Hottest pitcher: Steven Matz, Mets (2-1, 5.40 ERA)

The young New York southpaw was knocked around in his first start of the season against the Marlins by allowing seven earned runs in less than two innings of work. However, Matz has rebounded in a big way by coming off a pair of dominating performances in road victories at Cleveland and Atlanta. Matz struck out 17 batters and walked two, while giving up just two earned runs in those away wins as New York improved to 6-1 in his career road starts. New York lost two of three home games to San Francisco last season, while Matz is facing the Giants for the first time in his career.

Coldest pitcher: Zach Davies, Brewers (0-2, 9.72 ERA)

The second year right-hander has made two starts this season and hasn’t even reached nine innings pitched. Davies has given up 10 runs (nine earned) total in losses to the Pirates and Phillies, while allowing 17 hits this season. Facing the Marlins may be the thing to get Davies out of his funk, as the righty shut down Miami’s lineup last September in a 9-1 rout by yielding four hits and one earned run in seven innings.

Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (6-2 on road)

Washington’s offense has been hit or miss on the road this season by scoring at least seven runs three times, but has been limited to three runs or less five times. The Nationals begin a rough 10-game road swing against the Cardinals, Royals, and Cubs, as Washington has faced Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, and Minnesota so far. The three pitchers that oppose Washington this weekend at Busch Stadium are Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos Martinez, as none of them pitched against the Nationals last season.

Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (9-5 at home)

In spite of Thursday’s UNDER in the series finale against the Cardinals, the Diamondbacks have produced many high-scoring games this season at Chase Field. The first three games against St. Louis saw scores of 12-7, 8-2, and 11-4, while the winner of their previous series against Pittsburgh put up at least seven runs in all three games. The Rockies invade Chase Field this weekend as each team produced a double-digit effort in one game each when the NL West rivals met earlier this month.

Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Mariners

Seattle has played well to close out the first month of the season by winning six of its past eight games to pull within one-half game of first place in the AL West. The Mariners host a struggling Royals’ squad that has lost four consecutive road contests, including getting swept by the Angels. The task doesn’t get easier for the defending champions, facing former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. King Felix has produced four UNDERS in four starts, as the Mariners’ offense has plated eight runs in those four outings. Hernandez is making his second start at Safeco Field after tossing seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 loss to Oakland on April 10. The Royals captured two of three matchups at Seattle last season, including a 4-1 triumph over Hernandez as a +135 underdog last June.

Betcha you didn’t know: The Astros picked up only their third road victory in nine tries on Wednesday at Seattle. Houston travels to Oakland to begin a weekend series, as the Astros have lost in five of their past seven visits to the Coliseum. Mike Fiers takes the mound for Houston in the series opener, but the Astros lost all three times against the A’s last season as a favorite of -125, -145, and -205.

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-270) vs. Braves

Biggest public underdog: Blue Jays (+105) at Rays

Biggest line move: Reds (+145 to +135) at Pirates

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Bryan Power
Covers.com

The Major League Baseball season is about to roll over to its second month and it's already been a roller coaster ride for many teams. Covers Expert Power Sports gives a comprehensive look at the need to know betting notes for this weekend's series, including the Nationals current struggles.

Well, It Can’t Be Any Worse Than It Was The Last Time…

It’s never too early in the season to talk about revenge. San Diego (7-15, -7.1 units) will have a big time case of it this weekend when they visit Chavez Ravine to play the Dodgers. If you recall, these two NL West rivals opened the season against one another. The result was a historic, one-sided bludgeoning as the Padres were outscored 25-0 on the wrong end of a three-game sweep. It was the first time in MLB history that one team was shut out in its first three games of the season. While the Padres will certainly be an underdog in all three games this weekend (lost five in a row), note they at least avoid Kenta Maeda (but will draw Clayton Kershaw in the series finale). Be sure to check Thursday’s result for LA as if they lose, that means they’ll be off a series where they got swept as well.

Beltway Blues

So much for that fast start to the season for the Nationals. They just suffered the ignominy of being swept at home by the Phillies (shut out last two games) and now have just a one-half game lead over the hard-charging Mets. The Nats head to St. Louis this weekend to play a Cardinals team that might be “only” 12-9 (as of Thursday), but has a +48 run differential (trails only Cubs) after averaging 7.3 runs per game its last seven games. The one thing Washington has going for them in this next series is that Stephen Strasburg will be toeing the rubber in Friday’s opener. Strasburg has a 4-0 TSR and 0.931 WHIP.

Bottom of the Barrel

The Braves avoided what would have been a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston with 5-3 win Thursday. But they certainly appear to be “up against it” this weekend with a trip to the Windy City to take on the team with – by far- the best run differential in the sport, the Cubs (+74). Atlanta’s record is a MLB-worst 5-17 (-42 in run diff). This will be the biggest mismatch on the board, daily, all weekend long.

Hitting Notes

A big reason why St. Louis is lapping the league in runs scored (137) has been the hitting of Aledmys Diaz. Over the last seven days alone, he’s 14 of 23 (.609) with a ridiculous 1.582 OPS. He has a seven-game hit streak entering Thursday night. But, if there’s one guarantee that I can make in this week’s column it’s that Diaz won’t be able to keep this up.

After a slow start, Mike Trout has started to resemble his old self, at least in the power department. He’s hit four home runs in his last 24 at-bats and will head into Arlington this weekend on an eight-game hit streak. The Rangers have been a favorable opponent in the past for Trout, who has hit .402 with six homers, 18 RBI, 24 runs and a 1.288 OPS the last 25 games against them.

Pitching Notes

Chris Sale has won the 2016 American Cy Young Award. Okay, that may be a bit of premature proclamation, but Sale has been downright filthy thus far winning all five starts thanks to a 1.66 ERA and 0.684 WHIP. His next start is Sunday in Baltimore, a team that has hit 10 home runs in eight home games so far.

Last year saw Corey Kluber earn the dubious distinction of biggest money-losing starter in all of MLB, by far, at -17.7 units. (No other starter was down more than 11.6). The first three starts of 2016 brought “more of the same” for the one-time Cy Young winner (0-3 TSR), but Kluber’s last time out was a much needed outing where he tossed eight scoreless of three-hit ball vs. Boston. He starts Friday night in Philadelphia and in my mind, the turnaround will continue there for Kluber.

Totals Streak

Prior to a disastrous outing his last time out, Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez had seen the Under cash in eight of nine starts. He will get the baseball in Friday’s opener at Tampa Bay, a battle of what is two of the top six Under teams in all of baseball. The Rays being a top three Under team is not surprising, but the Jays being in the same stratosphere is. Last year’s #1 offensive team is averaging just 4.0 rpg, which is a middle of the pack 16th in MLB.

Friday's Weather Report

In Baltimore, there is a 56 percent chance of rain and a slight five mile per hour wind gusting in from right field for the Orioles' game tonight against the White Sox. The total for the game is 8.5.

There is a 47 percent chance of rain today in Philadelphia, where the Phillies will host the Indians. There will also be a slight five mile per hour wind gusting across the field from first to third. The total is currently 7.5.

The Mets host the Giants with a 60 percent chance of rain and a six mile per hour wind blowing in from right field. The total for the game is currently 7.5.

In Arlington, there will be a strong 12-15 mile per hour pitchers wind gusting in from right field for the Rangers game versus the Angels. There is a also a 60 percent chance of rain and chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. The total is currently 9.0.

In St. Louis, there is a chance of thunderstorms, a 24 percent chance of rain and a six to eight mile per hour wind gusting in from right field for the Cardinals game against the Nationals. The total is currently 7.5.

Yankees travel to Boston
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW YORK YANKEES (8-12) at BOSTON RED SOX (12-10)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -108, Boston -102, Total: 8.0

Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees take on Henry Owens and the Red Sox in this season’s first installment of the fiercest rivalry in baseball.

It’s the best rivalry in baseball—and arguably in all of sports. On Friday night the Yankees (8-12) and Red Sox (12-10) will kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park. On the mound for Joe Girardi’s club will be ace RHP Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 2.92 ERA, 23 SO, 6 BB in 24 2/3 IP). He’ll be opposed by LHP Henry Owens (0-0, 8.10 ERA, 4 SO, 4 BB in 3 1/3 IP), who has made just one start for Boston this season.

This rivalry may not currently have the juice that it did in years past, but you can guarantee that the players will get up for this weekend set. Coming into the opener, John Farrell’s squad is in second place in the American League East, 1 ½ games behind the first-place Orioles. The Yankees, 4 ½ games behind Baltimore, are in last place. These two clubs have been going in opposite directions. New York has dropped three of four, whereas the Sox have won four of five. New York has owned Boston over the last two seasons, going 23-15 (and 13-5 at Fenway Park). Nineteen of those 38 games went OVER the total.

This isn’t your father’s—or your brother’s, for that matter—Yankees offense. They don’t strike a ton of fear in you, which is a rarity considering they often have one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. New York’s best hitter in April has been 2B Starlin Castro (.289, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .333 OBP), who’s in his first season in the Bronx. New York doesn’t hit a lot of home runs, as RF Carlos Beltran (.263, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .288 OBP) leads the club with just four.

Two starters, DH Alex Rodriguez (.190, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .288 OBP) and 3B Chase Headley (.148, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .277 OBP), are hitting below .200. New York has gone just 3-6 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 2.8 runs in those nine games. Owens faced the Yankees twice last season—his rookie campaign—and went 0-2 against them with a 13.49 ERA. Rodriguez is 2-for-4 against the 23-year-old with a double and two RBIs.

The Red Sox have a quality lineup, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against Tanaka, who has gone 4-2 against them with a bloated 5.13 ERA. 2B Dustin Pedroia (.337, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .382 OBP) has been on absolute fire of late, and 3B Travis Shaw (.312, 2 HR, 15 RBI, .391 OBP) continues to impress in his first full season in the majors. 40-year-old David Ortiz (.296, 3 HR, 16 RBI, .398 OBP), in his final big-league campaign, is proving that he could certainly continue playing after 2016 if he wanted to.

RF Mookie Betts (.270, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .305 OBP) leads the club with four home runs. Being that they play the Yankees 19 times a season, the Red Sox have seen plenty of Tanaka since he debuted in 2014. Pedroia (5-for-13 with 2 2B) has hit him well, and Ortiz (4-for-15 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 3 BB) has had some success against the right-hander. Betts is 3-for-9 with two doubles and an RBI vs. Tanaka, while Xander Bogaerts (.282, 1 HR, 10 RBI, .358 OBP) is 5-for-19 lifetime with a home run, a double and three RBIs.