MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, August 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Giants @ Nationals
Stratton is 0-1, 6.17 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Giants’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Jackson is 2-2, 5.11 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Washington split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-1
Giants won four of last five games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road tilts. SF is 8-10 in road series openers. Washington won five of its last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Nationals are 11-8 in home series openers.
Mets @ Phillies
Lugo is 1-1, 5.02 in his last four starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Mets are 4-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2
Pivetta is 1-2, 8.59 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Phillies are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2
Mets lost five of last seven games (under 4-2-1). Phillies won three of their last four games; under is 8-4 in their last 12.
Rockies @ Marlins
Gray is 2-1, 3.60 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Colorado is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-1
Urena is 3-1, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Miami is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-3
Colorado is 7-4 in its last 11 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Rockies are 3-8 in last 11 road series openers. Miami lost five of last seven games; they’re 7-4 in last 11 home series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Reds @ Brewers
Bailey is 1-3, 8.44 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Reds are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1
Nelson is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Brewers are 5-0 in his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-2
Reds won three of last four games; their last five games went over total. Cincy is 7-13 in road series openers. Milwaukee lost its last five games; under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games. Brewers are 11-8 in home series openers.
Braves @ Cardinals
Foltynewicz is 3-1, 4.30 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Braves are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-6
Wainwright is 4-0, 4.46 in his last six starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last six. St Louis is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-4
Braves are 3-10 in last 13 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Atlanta is 11-8 in road series openers. St Louis won its last six games, scoring 54 runs; their last four games went over total. Cardinals are 10-10 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Lackey is 4-0, 3.43 in his last four starts; under is 7-4-1 in his last 12. Chicago is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-13-2
Walker is 0-3, 4.71 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Arizona is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-4
Cubs lost six of last eight games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five. Chicago is 10-9 in road series openers. Arizona lost four of last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Snakes are 13-5 in home series openers.
Padres @ Dodgers
Richard is 0-4, 8.59 in his last five starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. San Diego is 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-1
Hill is 4-0, 2.00 in his last six starts, 2-0, 0.75 vs San Diego this year. Under is 4-2-1 in his last seven starts. LA is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3
San Diego lost four of last five games; their last four games went over. Padres are 5-13 in road series openers. Dodgers are 46-8 in their last 54 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. LA is 14-5 in home series openers.
American League
Boston @ New York
Rodriguez is 0-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7
Garcia allowed six runs in 4.2 IP (87) in his first start for New York— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1. Garcia is pitching for his third team in last three weeks.
Red Sox won its last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five. Red Sox are 7-3 in last ten road series openers. New York is 4-5 in its last nine games; under is 7-2 in those nine games. NY is 11-6 in home series openers.
Twins @ Tigers
Gibson is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Minnesota is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-1
Sanchez is 1-2, 9.45 in his last three starts (over 5-4). Detroit is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1
Minnesota won its last five games; under is 3-0-1 in their last four road games. Twins are 11-7 in road series openers. Detroit lost five of last six games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Tigers are 11-7 in home series openers.
Indians @ Rays
Carrasco is 0-2, 6.58 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 8-4 in his road starts but lost the last three— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-1
Faria is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Rays are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-2-2
Indians lost four of last five games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Tampa Bay lost four of last six games, scoring total of eight runs; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games.
Astros @ Rangers
Morton is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Astros are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4-2
Hamels is 2-0, 3.86 in his last three starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Texas is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-0-2
Astros lost last five road games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall. Houston is 14-4 in road series openers. Texas lost four of last five home games; under is 8-4-1 in their last thirteen home games. Rangers are 9-9 in home series openers.
Royals @ White Sox
Duffy is 2-2, 3.90 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Royals are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-4
Lopez is making his first ’17 start; he was 5-3, 4.91 in 11 games with Washington (6 starts) LY. He is 6-7, 3.79 in 22 AAA starts this season.
Royals lost six of last seven games; their last six games went over. KC is 8-10 in road series openers. Chicago won their last three games after a 3-20 skid; over is 7-5 in their last 12 home games. White Sox are 7-11 in home series openers.
Orioles @ A’s
Jimenez is 1-1, 1.93 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Orioles are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-2
Blackburn is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts (over 3-3-1). A’s are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-2
Baltimore won nine of last 13 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11. Oakland lost nine of last 12 home games (under 9-2-1).
Angels @ Mariners
Nolasco is 1-2, 6.43 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Angels are 2-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-4
Gonzales allowed five runs in four IP (76 PT) in his first ’17 start, an 8-7 win at KC. Seattle’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Angels are 8-3 in last 11 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Mariners won eight of last 12 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven.
Interleague
Pirates @ Blue Jays
Taillon is 0-2, 13.85 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1). Pirates are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3
Stroman is 2-0, 3.40 in his last six starts; his last three starts went over. Toronto is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-1
Pittsburgh won six of last eight games; under is 4-2 in their last five road games. Pirates are 7-12 in road series openers. Blue Jays are 5-3 in last eight games; under is 6-4 in their last ten home games. Toronto is 7-11 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-1; Jackson 2-2
NY-Phil: Lugo 7-7; Pivetta 5-11
Colo-Mia: Gray 7-3; Urena 12-6
Cin-Mil: Bailey 3-6; Nelson 12-11
Atl-StL: Foltynewicz 13-8; Wainwright 13-8
Chi-Az: Lackey 12-9 (5-0 last 5); Walker 10-8 (0-5 last 5)
SD-LA; Richard 7-16 (0-5 last 5); Hill 11-5 (6-0 last 6)
American League
Bos-NY; Rodriguez 9-5; Garcia 0-1 (9-9)
Min-Det: Gibson 9-10; Sanchez 5-4
Clev-TB: Carrasco 15-7; Faria 8-3
Hst-Tex: Morton 10-6; Hamels 7-6
KC-Chi: Duffy 8-10; Lopez 0-0
Balt-A’s: Jimenez 10-8; Blackburn 4-3
LA-Sea: Nolasco 6-17; Gonzales 1-0
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Taillon 8-8; Stroman 14-9
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-2; Jackson 2-4
NY-Phil: Lugo 8-14; Pivetta 6-16
Colo-Mia: Gray 2-10; Urena 3-18
Cin-Mil: Bailey 6-9; Nelson 3-23
Atl-StL: Foltynewicz 4-21; Wainwright 5-21
Chi-Az: Lackey 11-21; Walker 6-18
SD-LA; Richard 7-23; Hill 4-16
American League
Bos-NY; Rodriguez 4-14; Garcia 4-19
Min-Det: Gibson 5-19; Sanchez 1-9
Clev-TB: Carrasco 4-22; Faria 2-11
Hst-Tex: Morton 3-16; Hamels 5-13
KC-Chi: Duffy 4-18; Lopez 0-0
Balt-A’s: Jimenez 6-18; Blackburn 1-7
LA-Sea: Nolasco 9-23; Gonzales 0-1
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Taillon 4-16; Stroman 5-23
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 62-48 AL, favorites -$119
AL @ NL– 61-56 NL, favorites -$537
Total: 117-107 AL, favorites -$656
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 57-52-3
AL @ NL: Over 63-48-7
Total: Over 120-100-10
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (8-0 last eight) vs. Yankees
Boston is finally starting to distance itself from New York in the AL East by opening up a 4½-game advantage following three consecutive sweeps. Granted, two of those sweeps came in two-game sets against the Indians and Rays, but the Red Sox also took all four contests against the White Sox at Fenway Park last weekend. Boston’s pitching has stepped up recently by allowing only eight runs in the last five victories, while winning three straight on the road.
The Sox head to the Bronx to face the rival Yankees for a crucial weekend series after splitting a four-game set with New York in mid-July. Eduardo Rodriguez is winless in his last five starts since the beginning of June, but Boston won each of his past two starts by one run each at home against the Royals and White Sox.
Coldest team: Brewers (0-5 last five) vs. Reds
Milwaukee closed the first half of the season leading the NL Central, but the Brewers are in danger of not even making the playoffs. The Brew Crew is coming off a devastating series sweep at the hands of the Twins by losing all four games, including a pair of defeats at Miller Park. Milwaukee’s offense has scored four runs or less in 13 consecutive games, while going 7-0-1 to the UNDER in the past eight home contests.
The Brewers have a chance to rebound by hosting the last-place Reds this weekend, as Milwaukee swept Cincinnati at Miller Park in late April. Jimmy Nelson has been the most consistent home pitcher for the Brewers this season as Milwaukee owns a 5-0 record in his past five at Miller Park. Nelson has defeated the Reds twice this season, while the Brewers are 5-1 in his previous six starts against Cincinnati since 2016.
Hottest pitcher: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (11-5, 5.00 ERA)
Although Wainwright lasted only three innings in a victory over Cincinnati his last time out, the Cardinals have compiled a 5-1 record in his past six starts. The Redbirds have won six of Wainwright’s last seven outings at Busch Stadium, while allowing two earned runs or less six times in this span. The Cardinals welcome in the Braves after sweeping Atlanta at SunTrust Park in early May. The Georgia native split a pair of starts against the Braves in 2016, as he lost at home, 6-3 last August after giving up six runs in the first two innings.
Coldest pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, Indians (10-5, 4.06 ERA)
Cleveland has dropped four of Carrasco’s last five starts, while yielding five earned runs three times in this stretch. The last two outings have been forgettable for the Indians’ right-hander, who allowed 10 earned runs in less than eight innings of work, as he squandered a 5-0 lead in a 12-10 defeat at Boston on August 1. Carrasco faces the Rays for the second time this season as he was knocked around for five runs in an 8-7 home victory on May 15 at Progressive Field.
Biggest OVER run: Royals (6-0 last six)
Kansas City’s pitching has been knocked around the last few games, including against its cross-state rivals. The Cardinals scored eight runs or more in all four contests against the Royals, while posting at least four runs in each game off Kansas City’s bullpen. The Royals will look to snap a five-game road losing streak when they head to the South Side of Chicago to face the White Sox, as Kansas City has drilled the UNDER in six of the past seven road series openers.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (5-1 last six)
This is a rare situation where Colorado is on a solid UNDER run. The Rockies scored a total of two runs in the first 17 innings at Cleveland prior to scoring the tying run in the ninth inning on Wednesday, followed by the go-ahead run in the 12th inning of a 3-2 victory. Since the start of August, Colorado has yielded four runs or less in six of eight games, while the bullpen coughed up two ninth-inning leads at Philadelphia and Cleveland after allowing a total of one run in the first eight innings of each loss.
Matchup to watch: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Chicago and Arizona are hooking up for their second series this month as the D-backs grabbed two of three at Wrigley Field in early August. After getting embarrassed 16-4 in the opener, Arizona rebounded for a pair of victories, including an exciting 10-8 win in the finale thanks to three home runs off the bat of Paul Goldschmidt. Both these teams have their eyes on the postseason, but the defending champions still have work to do.
The Cubs dropped the final two games at San Francisco as their advantage in the NL Central over the Cardinals is down to just one game. John Lackey takes the mound for Chicago as he has won four straight starts, while the Cubs are 5-0 in his past five trips to the hill. Lackey has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight outings, while beating the D-backs twice last season.
Taijuan Walker counters for Arizona, who has lost four of its past five contests. Walker is winless in five consecutive outings, including losses as a -150 home favorite to the Braves and Reds. Arizona has stepped up in home openers recently by winning five of its past six Game 1’s at Chase Field.
Betcha didn’t know: Cole Hamels has yet to face the Astros this season, but the Rangers’ ace owned Houston in 2016. The Texas southpaw allowed five runs in three starts last season as the Rangers won all three games, including a pair of one-run victories at Globe Life Park. The Rangers were swept by the Astros in Arlington the last time Houston visited in early June, while scoring 20 runs in that series.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-345) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Red Sox (+110) at Yankees
Biggest line move: Pirates (+145 to +130) at Blue Jays
Indians, Rays meet in Tampa
By: StatFox.com
The Indians will be trying to avoid a fifth loss in six games when they face the Rays on Friday.
Cleveland is not playing well right now, as the team has now lost four of its past five games. The Indians had a pretty comfortable lead in the AL Central as of last week, but their recent struggles and a three-game winning streak by the Twins have complicated things. Minnesota is now only 3.5 games back in the division, and the Indians know they need to get it going soon. As for the Rays, a victory on Friday night would also be huge for them. Tampa Bay is currently tied for the second AL wild card spot, and the team must continue to win games in order to make it back to the postseason. The starters in this huge Friday night matchup are set to be RHP Carlos Carrasco (10-5, 4.06 ERA, 142 K) for Cleveland and RHP Jacob Faria (5-2, 2.81 ERA, 67 K) for Tampa Bay. Carrasco has been an excellent pitcher throughout his career, but this has been a bit of a rough season for him. Faria, meanwhile, has been excellent since the Rays gave him a shot to start games. It should be an interesting matchup on the hill.
The Indians are trying to get back on track and Carlos Carrasco is definitely a good guy to have on the mound here. Carrasco has not been as good as usual this season, but it’s only a matter of time before he turns things around. His last two starts have been complete disasters, as he has allowed 10 earned runs in 7.1 innings of work. He has, however, bounced back before. Carrasco is not a guy you want to count out, as he has been as consistent as any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons. On offense, two guys to watch out for in this game are 3B Jose Ramirez (.312 BA, 18 HR, 57 RBI) and OF Jay Bruce (.256 BA, 29 HR, 75 RBI). Ramirez has been a monster for Cleveland this season, and there have been no signs of him slowing down. He should be able to keep it up moving forward. As for Bruce, this will be only his second game with the Indians. He is, however, a lefty hitter going up against a young righty in this one. It wouldn’t be shocking if he makes him pay by taking him yard here.
The Rays are battling for a wild card spot this season, and this series against the Indians is definitely important. Tampa Bay needs to take advantage of all of its remaining home games this season, so this one is no different. The starter in this Friday night game is 24-year-old Jacob Faria, who allowed just one run in 6.0 innings of work against the Brewers on Aug. 4. He struck out nine batters in that game, and another performance like that should mean that the Rays walk away with a victory here. Tampa Bay lost 2-0 in his last start, but one would assume the offense would be a little better here. One guy that just might provide an unlikely spark in this game is 2B Brad Miller (.203 BA, 5 HR, 26 RBI). It has been a rough season for Miller, but the 27-year-old is 3-for-5 with an RBI against Carrasco in his career. He might have a little bit of extra confidence here, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he has a solid game at the plate.