MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 18, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Martinez is 2-0, 3.21 in his last two starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. St Louis is 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-2

Williams is 1-1, 2.59 in his last four starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten. Pirates are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2

Cardinals lost three of their last four games; their last ten games went over the total. Pittsburgh lost its last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.

Marlins @ Mets
Nicolino is 1-1, 6.04 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1). Miami lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Flexen is 2-1, 7.56 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). Mets won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Miami won five of its last six games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road tilts. Marlins are 8-11 in road series openers. Mets lost their last four games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games. New York is 11-9 in home series openers.

Reds @ Braves
Romano is 0-3, 8.47 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5

Dickey is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Atlanta is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4

Reds lost four of last six games; over is 11-1 in their last 12 games. Cincy is 8-14 in road series openers. Atlanta is 3-7 in its last ten games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 home games. Braves are 9-9 in home series openers.

Brewers @ Rockies
Garza is 2-2, 6.98 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Milwaukee is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2

Marquez is 2-1, 3.26 in his last five starts (under 5-0). Colorado won his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-3

Brewers won their last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Milwaukee is 10-9 in road series openers. Colorado lost five of last seven games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Rockies are 15-4 in home series openers.

Nationals @ Padres
Scherzer is 1-0, 2.14 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Washington is 8-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-2

Perdomo is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. San Diego is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-4

Nationals won six of last eight games; their last seven games stayed under. San Diego is 8-3 in last 11 home games; under is 7-2 in last nine home tilts.

Phillies @ Giants
Eflin is 1-4, 9.22 in his last five starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Phillies are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-3

Moore is 0-4, 6.15 in his last seven starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Giants are 3-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-17-5

Philly lost seven of last eight games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Giants won five of last six home games; last four Giant games went over the total.

American League

Angels @ Orioles
Heaney is making his first ’17 start after he was hurt— he is 6-8, 4.09 in 24 career big league starts, is 1-1, 3.12 in three AAA starts this season.

Hellickson is 1-2, 4.50 in three starts for Baltimore (under 2-1). O’s won his only home start— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

Angels won seven of last eight games; their last four games stayed under. Halos are 9-11 in road series openers. Baltimore lost six of last nine games; four of their last five went over. Orioles are 2-6 in last eight home series openers.

Mariners @ Rays
Former Ray Ramirez is 0-1, 5.65 in three starts for Seattle (over 2-1). Mariners split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Pruitt is 1-2, 3.08 in five starts this year (under 5-0). Tampa Bay is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Mariners lost five of last seven games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Seattle is 8-1 in last nine road series openers. Tampa Bay lost 8 of last 10 games; under is 13-2 in their last 15 games. Rays are 7-12 in home series openers.

New York @ Boston
Montgomery is 1-2, 4.56 in his last five starts (under 5-0). New York is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-3

Pomeranz is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts; over is 8-4-1 in his last 13. Red Sox are 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9

New York won its last four games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. NY is 10-10 in road series openers. Red Sox are 12-2 in last 14 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Boston is 14-7 in home series openers.

White Sox @ Rangers
Shields is 0-3, 7.79 in his last six starts (over 7-6). Chicago is 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-2

Cashner is 3-1, 2.42 in his last four starts; his last seven starts stayed under. Texas is 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

White Sox lost their last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Texas won seven of last eight games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

A’s @ Astros
Manaea is 0-2, 24.30 (yes, 24.30) in his last three starts; his last seven starts went over. Oakland is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-5

Keuchel is 1-2, 7.23 in four starts since coming off the DL; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Houston is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-3-2

A’s lost six of last nine games; four of their last five went over. Oakland is 6-12 in road series openers. Houston is 3-7 in its last ten games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine. Astros are 11-8 in home series openers.

Indians @ Royals
Kluber is 3-0, 1.80 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Cleveland is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Kennedy is 0-2, 7.72 in his last three starts; over is 12-5-1 in his last 18 starts. Royals are 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-2

Cleveland played a twianbill in Minnesota yesterday; they’re 6-1 in last seven games- under is 11-2-1 in their last 13 games. Tribe is 10-11 in road series openers. Royals won four of last five games; three of their last four went over. KC is 10-9 in home series openers.

Interleague

Blue Jays @ Cubs
Happ is 3-0, 1.45 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Toronto is 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9

Arrieta is 3-1, 2.77 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-2 in his last six. Cubs are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-3

Toronto won five of last six games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Blue Jays are 9-10 in road series openers. Cubs are 6-9 in last fifteen games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Chicago is 8-12 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Tigers
Hill is 3-0, 2.89 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1); Dodgers are 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Zimmerman is 1-2, 5.79 in his last five starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Detroit is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12

Dodgers are 19-3 in last 22 games; over is 4-2 in their last six. LA is 9-2 in last 11 road series openers. Detroit lost six of last seven games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Tigers are 11-8 in home series openers.

Diamondbacks @ Twins
Godley is 2-1, 1.78 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six. Arizona is 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2

Santana is 1-0, 4.50 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Minnesota is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-4

Arizona is 4-8 in its last 12 games; over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Snakes are 11-8 in road series openers. Twins played a DH yesterday; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games; over is 3-1-2 in their last six. Minnesota is 10-10 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Martinez 12-12; Williams 8-10
Mia-NY: Nicolino 3-3; Flexen 3-1
Cin-Atl: Romano 2-6; Dickey 13-10
Mil-Colo: Garza 9-9; Marquez 12-8
Wsh-SD: Scherzer 16-8; Perdomo 9-12
Phil-SF: Eflin 3-7; Moore 6-18

American League
LA-Balt: Heaney 0-0; Hellickson 1-2
Sea-TB: Ramirez 1-2 (5-3); Pruitt 2-3
NY-Bos: Montgomery 9-13; Pomeranz 15-8
Chi-Tex: Shields 4-9; Cashner 9-10
A’s-Hst: Manaea 5-6; Keuchel 12-3
Clev-KC: Kluber 13-7; Kennedy 11-11

Interleague
Tor-Chi: Happ 7-10; Arrieta 13-11
LA-Det: Hill 11-6; Zimmerman 9-14
Az-Minn: Godley 11-6; Santana 14-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Pitt: Martinez 10-24; Williams 6-18
Mia-NY: Nicolino 4-6; Flexen 2-4
Cin-Atl: Romano 3-8; Dickey 6-23
Mil-Colo: Garza 4-18; Marquez 5-20
Wsh-SD: Scherzer 5-24; Perdomo 7-21
Phil-SF: Eflin 8-10; Moore 8-24

American League
LA-Balt: Heaney 0-0; Hellickson 0-3
Sea-TB: Ramirez 6-11; Pruitt 1-5
NY-Bos: Montgomery 5-22; Pomeranz 7-23
Chi-Tex: Shields 5-13; Cashner 5-19
A’s-Hst: Manaea 6-11; Keuchel 4-15
Clev-KC: Kluber 4-20; Kennedy 4-22

Interleague
Tor-Chi: Happ 4-17; Arrieta 6-24
LA-Det: Hill 4-17; Zimmerman 8-23
Az-Minn: Godley 3-17; Santana 4-24

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 69-50 AL, favorites +$295
AL @ NL– 64-60 NL, favorites -$54
Total: 129-114 AL, favorites +$241

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 60-58-3
AL @ NL: Over 65-53-7
Total: Over 125-111-10

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Angels (7-1 last eight) vs. Orioles

All of the sudden, the Halos are the second Wild Card team in the American League after compiling an 11-4 record in August. Los Angeles pulled off a four-game sweep at Seattle, followed by a split of a two-game series at Washington. The Angels remain in the Beltway to battle the Orioles this weekend, as L.A. grabbed two of three from Baltimore at home earlier this month.

The Angels have stepped up on the highway recently by posting a 7-2 record in the last nine games away from Orange County. Andrew Heaney gets the ball in the series opener at Camden Yards, making his first start in over a year since Tommy John surgery. The Angels catch the Orioles off a 10-game west coast swing (4-6), but Baltimore has won four of its past five series openers.

Coldest team: Tigers (2-10 last 12) vs. Dodgers

It’s never a good time to go on a skid like Detroit is currently on, but to make matters worse, the red-hot Dodgers are headed to the Motor City this weekend. The Tigers were swept in a three-game series at Texas, while allowing 22 runs in the final two losses. Detroit has dropped six of its past seven contests with the only victory coming in walk-off fashion in a wild 12-11 triumph over Minnesota last Saturday.

Since shutting out the Pirates, 10-0 on August 9, Detroit’s pitching has been lit up by giving up six runs or more in seven straight contests. Jordan Zimmermann will try to turn around Detroit’s recent misfortunes in spite of the Tigers losing three of his past four home starts, including underdog losses to division leaders Houston and Cleveland.

Hottest pitcher: Corey Kluber, Indians (11-3, 2.71 ERA)

Chris Sale is the favorite to capture the AL Cy Young award, but Kluber is pushing the issue for his second Cy Young. Kluber ranks second in the AL in ERA and third in strikeouts with 192, as the right-hander has recorded eight K’s or more in 14 consecutive appearances. Since Cleveland dropped three straight starts by Kluber in July, the Tribe is 5-0 in his past five trips to the mound, including complete game victories at home over the Rockies and Yankees. Kluber is listed as a heavy road favorite at Kansas City, as the Indians are 0-4 in his past four outings at Kauffman Stadium since 2015.

Coldest pitcher: Sean Manaea, Athletics (8-7, 4.59 ERA)

Oakland has struggled with Houston this season by losing 10 of 12 matchups. In one of those victories, Manaea allowed one earned run in 5.2 innings of a 6-4 triumph at Minute Maid Park in late June. However, the A’s are 2-6 in Manaea’s previous eight starts, including a 1-3 mark away from the Coliseum. The southpaw recorded only one out and yielded six earned runs in a 12-5 defeat to Baltimore last Saturday, while Oakland is riding a seven-game OVER streak in Manaea’s last seven starts.

Biggest OVER run: Reds (11-1 last 12)

Cincinnati dropped nine runs in the second inning at Wrigley Field on Thursday, but the Reds squandered that 9-0 advantage as the Cubs rallied to tie the game at 9-9. Luckily, the Reds were able to hold off the defending champions, 13-10, while eclipsing the OVER in 10 of the past 12 games away from Great American Ballpark. Sal Romano is winless in his last four starts for Cincinnati as the Reds are 3-1 to the OVER in this span. The Reds travel to Atlanta as two of three meetings earlier this season in Cincinnati flew OVER the total.

Biggest UNDER run: Rays (13-1 last 14)

Tampa Bay’s offense has dried up since capturing the final three games at Houston to start August. In 11 of the previous 13 games, the Rays have been held to three runs or fewer, including getting shut out at home a whopping five times. Tampa Bay has lost four consecutive series, as Seattle invades Tropicana Field after the M’s swept the Rays at Safeco Field in early June. Austin Pruitt has made four starts since the end of July as the Rays have finished UNDER the total in each outing, while posting three straight quality appearances.

Matchup to watch: Yankees vs. Red Sox

The top two teams in the AL East hook up for their third series since the All-Star break as the Sox have won four of seven matchups. Last weekend in the Bronx, the Yankees rallied from a 3-0 deficit to score five runs in the eighth inning in a 5-3 victory on Friday. However, the Red Sox captured the final two games of the series, including an extra-innings win in the finale as Chris Sale picked up a no-decision in spite of 12 strikeouts in seven innings.

Boston has won 10 of 12 games this month, while putting together an impressive 8-1 record in the past nine contests at Fenway Park. Drew Pomeranz shut down the Yankees last weekend as a +150 underdog, 10-5 by pitching into the seventh inning and allowing three earned runs for his 12th victory of the season. Pomeranz will be listed as a home favorite on Friday as the Sox own a 9-3 record at Fenway in 12 starts.

Fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for the Bombers, as he went toe-to-toe with Sale last Sunday. Montgomery scattered two hits in 5.1 innings, while the Yankees hit the UNDER in his fifth consecutive start. The Yankees have lost three of the last four home starts by Montgomery, but the Bombers are coming off a four-game sweep of the rival Mets and sit four games behind the Red Sox entering the weekend.

Betcha didn’t know: Following a four-game split of their series with the Astros, the Diamondbacks improved to 11-3 this season in interleague action. Arizona faces another American League opponent this weekend as the Snakes travel to Minnesota to face the Twins. Minnesota has won three of Ervin Santana’s last four starts in interleague play, while the Twins are riding a five-game winning streak against NL opponents.

Biggest public favorite: Astros (-230) vs. Athletics

Biggest public underdog: Marlins (+105) at Mets

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis (-120) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8

Carlos Martinez and Trevor Williams are the listed hurlers for tonight’s matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates. The Cardinals did end up having value last night, even though Adam Wainwright’s arm seems to be on the verge of falling off. The game doubled the total of nine, so that was a bad call. It’s been one of those baseball seasons where I can’t do anything right and it’s incredibly frustrating.

Anyway, I keep plugging away. Carlos Martinez is having a fine season and should probably be a bigger favorite, but there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of trust in the Cardinals this season. Martinez has a 3.56 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 3.61 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning in his 154.1 frames. He’s got a ground ball rate over 50 percent. It’s basically everything you could want in a starter in today’s run environment. The career-worst home run rate is a tad concerning, especially with a walk rate that is a little on the high side, but PNC Park suppresses power, so this is a good fit for Martinez tonight.

Trevor Williams is a pitcher that I have been taking a longer look lately. He’s got a 4.19 ERA with a 3.80 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP. He has a low LOB%, which has been positively regressing of late, of 67.2 percent and that low LOB% has hurt him in his 124.1 career innings. He doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats, but he also doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has a good ground ball rate at 49.6 percent. The thing I like the most about Williams is that he doesn’t allow a lot of long balls. He’s given up just nine this season in 111.2 innings. He also limited dingers in the minors, so the command profile is better than the run metrics would suggest.

At risk of being made a fool again today, I do like the under once again. I’d have a small lean to the road favorite as well. While I like Williams and think he’s underrated, I wish he was going up against somebody other than Martinez so I could back him. I have to respect how good Martinez is in this spot, especially since his one shortcoming isn’t as big of a factor in PNC Park.

Los Angeles at Baltimore (-135); Total: 10.5

We’re seeing sharp action hit the over for the matchup between Andrew Heaney and Jeremy Hellickson. That should surprise exactly zero people. This will be the 2017 MLB debut for Heaney. He made one start last year for the Angels and wound up on the shelf with Tommy John surgery. Across six rehab starts between Low-A and Triple-A, Heaney allowed eight earned runs on 28 hits in 27.2 innings of work with 29 strikeouts against five walks. I don’t love backing guys coming off of the disabled list, as you know, so I have concerns about Heaney, but he did throw the ball pretty well in his minor league rehab outings.

The primary concern I have is that command is often the last thing to come back for pitchers after surgery and rehab. The velocity has a great success rate of coming back and pitchers that were previously good with their control generally fall back into that rhythm. Command is all about feel. It’s about getting around and over your pitches to locate them where you want. In some of those rehab starts, Heaney may have focused solely on fastball command or may have pitched backwards to surprise hitters with early-count breaking balls to work on his command. The big leagues don’t allow that, especially in a game with some Wild Card implications. Poor command against the Orioles lineup at Camden Yards is usually a recipe for disaster.

Jeremy Hellickson’s full-season numbers are ugly. He has a 4.70 ERA with a 5.13 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP. In three starts with the Orioles, Hellickson has allowed nine runs on 16 hits in 18 innings with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. The strikeout rate stands out because he had a horrible one with the Phillies. Perhaps it’s just the league change, but he is missing more bats. Still, the shine may have come off already. After seven shutout in his first outing, Hellickson allowed three runs on six hits to the Angels on August 8. He allowed six runs on five hits to the A’s on August 13.

I won’t be touching this game from a side standpoint, but those sharp groups bumping the total up seem to be on to something.

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-130); Total: 9

Former Tampa Bay Ray Erasmo Ramirez will make this start against Austin Pruitt, as the Rays continue to hold back prized prospect Brent Honeywell. Ramirez is working exclusively in a starting capacity for the Mariners after being a swingman for the Rays. Ramirez made eight starts and 18 relief outings for Tampa Bay. In three starts with Seattle, Ramirez has allowed seven earned runs, nine total, on 16 hits in 14.1 innings of work with an 8/1 K/BB ratio. He has allowed five home runs in that span. The Rays do hit home runs to score, though they haven’t been scoring a whole lot lately. In fact, since the start of July, they have one of the worst offenses in baseball by a lot of the metrics.

Austin Pruitt has a lot of average numbers in his profile, but the luck and sequencing gods have shunned him. Pruitt has a 5.07 ERA with a 3.79 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP on the season. The rookie right-hander has made five starts and 17 relief appearances. He has a .343 BABIP against and a 63 percent LOB%. Outside of Pruitt’s three-inning spot start in April, he’s allowed nine runs on 20 hits in 23.1 innings of work as a regular starter. He joined the rotation full-time on July 28 after his recall from Triple-A. He’s shown good control with an 18/5 K/BB ratio in that span. The stuff is pretty unexciting, although he’s faced the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, and Indians, so he’s seen some very good lineups. The Mariners aren’t on that level, especially with how inconsistent they have been this season.

I don’t see a whole lot of good ways to approach this game. Both teams have been struggling. You could make a case that the Rays have a good book on Ramirez, but he should know what he’s dealing with in terms of his ex-teammates. Pruitt is a pretty average starter, which is an upgrade to Ramirez, hence the line. I won’t be invested.

Miami at New York (-115); Total: 9.5

Things I learned today: Justin Nicolino is still a Major League starting pitcher. He’s the one going for the Marlins today against Mets rookie right-hander Chris Flexen, who hopes to be flexen his muscles in this NL East showdown. Nicolino made his return to the big leagues with 5.1 ugly, but effective innings, on August 12 against the Rockies. He gave up six hits and walked four, but only gave up one earned run and got his first win of the season. He has a 4.56 ERA with a 5.94 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP on the year with an ugly K/BB ratio and no command based on the numbers.

Chris Flexen’s first four Major League starts have not gone well. He’s got a 7.02 ERA, which, coincidentally, is the area code in Las Vegas, where he never pitched with the 51s because he went straight from seven starts in Double-A to the show. His high ERA comes with a higher FIP at 7.22 and a 6.24 xFIP. Flexen has allowed 23 hits and 12 walks in 16.2 innings, with just 13 strikeouts. It’s almost like the jump from Double-A to the big leagues is significant. He’s allowed 13 earned runs and one unearned run.

He had his best start as a pro last time out against the Phillies with five innings of two-run ball. He allowed six hits and four walks, so he’s still having a lot of problems figuring out this pitching thing. On the whole, Nicolino seems to have more skill in terms of leaving runners on base and getting out of bad situations. There will be a lot of bad situations for both pitchers in this one. With the Mets just off a sweep at the hands of the interleague rival Yankees, I’m kind of curious how they show up for this one.

Still, there’s something about this game that makes me want to look at the Mets. The year-long steam on the Marlins may have created a little bit of value on New York, since these two pitchers aren’t that far apart and home field advantage would likely have the Mets about -125. I think I’m going to take them today. There’s not a whole lot worth playing and this game is marginal at best, but there’s something about it.

New York at Boston (-130); Total: 9

Another series between the Yankees and Red Sox starts tonight. It feels like these teams are always playing each other. Jordan Montgomery toes the slab for the Yankees and Drew Pomeranz goes for the Red Sox, so we’ll have a couple of dueling southpaws at Fenway Park.

Something I found extremely interesting about Jordan Montgomery was his pitch selection against the Indians back on August 5. Montgomery basically shelved his fastball and wound up throwing a ton of breaking balls. He’s thrown a lot of offspeed stuff throughout the season, but it seems to be an inordinately high number of changeups, curveballs, and sliders. Based on Pitch Info Solutions data, which is tracked by human hand, Montgomery had the most extreme start in terms of sliders and curveballs last time out against the Red Sox. Over 52 percent of his arsenal was made up of sliders and curves. I actually like this a lot. Montgomery hasn’t been pushed all that far by Joe Girardi, who is trying to limit his exposure the third time through the lineup with his super bullpen.

The results were fairly solid for Montgomery, who allowed one run on just two hits with three walks and four strikeouts in 5.1 innings of work. Against the Indians, Montgomery allowed just one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. This concerted effort by Montgomery to use a breaking ball heavy arsenal should counteract the league-wide power spike because it’s really hard to center on breaking balls. As it is, Boston doesn’t hit for a lot of home run power, relative to the rest of the league, but the Red Sox rank fourth in linear pitch type weighted value against curveballs. They struggle against sliders and changeups, so maybe we see Montgomery vary his arsenal a little bit here? Montgomery has gone from a very intriguing pitcher to a downright fascinating one for me.

Drew Pomeranz is having a strong season. He has a 3.39 ERA with a 3.73 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and has really good peripherals. Most importantly, he’s stayed pretty healthy for a second straight season, since injuries have always been a hindrance for him. Pomeranz has been strong for the last two months. Dating back to his June 16 bounce back start against Houston, Pomeranz has only allowed more than three runs in a start once. He owns a 2.42 ERA with a 3.56 FIP and a 4.19 xFIP in that span, as he has cut down on his home run rate. His strikeout rate is down a bit, so that may be worth watching, but he’s been extremely solid overall and deserves the respect that he’s getting in this line.

Montgomery has also been strong for a while. He’s had a blow-up here or there, but has generally kept his team in the game. It’s easier when only five innings are asked of you because of the bullpen and that’s likely why Montgomery has changed up his arsenal. I’ll be curious to see how he fares seeing Boston for the third time since the All-Star Break. Two of Pomeranz’s worst three starts since the Break came against the Yankees. That’s a small sample and not entirely predictive, but it is worth noting.

I don’t think I’ll have a play here, but, as you can tell, I’m very invested in this game for other reasons.

Arizona (-110) at Minnesota; Total: 9

Without a doubt, my favorite play on the board and probably my favorite play in a while is the Arizona Diamondbacks today against the Minnesota Twins. Zack Godley is having a phenomenal year and I don’t think he’s getting the respect that he deserves. It’s an East Coast Media world, so nobody gets to see him. Also, some guy named Clayton Kershaw pitches in his division, along with guys like Yu Darvish, Rich Hill, Madison Bumgarner, and teammate Zack Greinke.

Godley has a 2.95 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.33 xFIP. In 17 starts covering 106.2 innings, Godley has 109 strikeouts against 34 walks. He’s only allowed eight home runs and has a 55.7 percent ground ball rate. He’s one of the lowest-barreled starters in all of baseball. Godley’s last five starts have been against the Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Cubs. In that span, Godley posted a 2.61/2.98/3.41 pitcher slash and struck out 35 in 31 innings of work. If that didn’t get him recognition, I don’t know what will. If he qualified for the ERA title, his swinging strike rate would be among the best in baseball.

Ervin Santana still shows huge signs of regression with a 3.28 ERA, a 4.71 FIP, and a 4.78 xFIP. His 80.4 percent LOB% and .233 BABIP against are pretty significant outliers. The Diamondbacks rank fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Adding an extra hitter to the lineup doesn’t hurt for Arizona and they’ll also be able to put together a stronger defensive lineup with the addition of the DH. This is already a really solid defensive ballclub.

The fact that this line has come down a tad stuns me. I love the Diamondbacks here. It’s been a tough year for me and I’ve fought with myself a lot of times, but this is a game that I am very confident in.

Thanks for all your information. Followed the braves and and diamondbacks pick yesterday.

You're incredibly knowledgeable and appreciate all the time and research you put into this.

My pleasure colbski, glad to be of help to everyone to make handicapping gamea a bit easier.

Cardinals, Pirates clash in Pittsburgh
By: StatFox.com

The Cardinals will be hoping to earn a big victory over the Pirates in Pittsburgh on Friday.

Both the Cardinals and the Pirates are currently doing everything they can to win the NL Central right now. The Cubs and Brewers are ahead of both teams at the moment, but nobody is really pulling away from the rest of the pack. The Pirates, however, are in danger of falling a bit too far behind in this series. They are the only team of the four that is under .500 and a loss in this three-game series against the Cardinals would really hurt their chances of crawling back into this race. Having said that, there are still a lot of games to be played and they’ll have a few more opportunities to face the teams that are ahead of them in the coming weeks. The starters in this Friday night matchup are going to be RHP Carlos Martinez (9-9, 3.56 ERA, 165 K) for St. Louis and RHP Trevor Williams (5-5, 4.19 ERA, 83 K) for Pittsburgh. The Cardinals certainly have the edge on the mound on paper, but it’s not a very significant one. It wouldn’t be surprising if Williams found a way to outduel Martinez, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if this weren’t a pitcher’s duel at all. Both teams could very well put a ton of runs on the scoreboard in this one, which would make for one exciting game.

The Cardinals are still fighting for a playoff spot, but they’re going to need to find a way to overcome both the Cubs and Brewers in the coming weeks. And while the team certainly has talent, it also has to find a way to stop blowing leads late. The Cardinals have been plagued by their bullpen all year, and they need to find a way to win close games moving forward. As for the starting pitcher in this one, Martinez will be hoping to shut the Pirates down. He allowed just two earned runs in seven innings against the Pirates on Jul. 16, but the Cardinals lost that game. Still, St. Louis would be ecstatic if he were to pitch like that again on Friday. On offense, C Yadier Molina (.274 BA, 14 HR, 55 RBI) is a name to keep an eye on in this one. Molina has had some success against Trevor Williams in his career, as he is 2-for-7 with two doubles against the righty. It would be big for the Cardinals if he were to come through at the plate here. 1B Matt Carpenter (.248 BA, 15 HR, 57 RBI) has also hit Williams hard, as he is 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI against him.

The last time Trevor Williams faced the Cardinals was on Jul. 16, when the righty allowed only one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. Williams struck out five batters in that game, but he also gave up nine hits. If he lets St. Louis hit him around like that again then it’s very likely that Pittsburgh will not be able to overcome it. He’ll need to do a better job of avoiding contact on Friday. On offense, OF Starling Marte (.256 BA, 2 HR, 12 RBI) is a guy that could come through for the Pirates on Friday. He is 11-for-22 with two doubles and three RBI against Martinez in his career. He also happens to be finding his groove right now, so he should be confident when he gets to the plate on Friday. He has gotten two hits in each of the past three games now, which is nothing to ignore heading into this one.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

L.A. Dodgers (85-34) at Detroit (53-67)

Scheduled Rotation: Hill (8-4) vs. Zimmermann (7-9), Ryu (4-6) vs. Fulmer (10-10), Maeda (11-4) vs. Verlander (8-8 )
Series Price: Dodgers -220, Tigers +180

It's August 18 and the Dodgers already have 85 wins, and they're doing it without their ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw. They've gone 24-5 since the All-Star break and have gone 50-9 in their last 59 and start a seven-game road trip in Detroit.The Dodgers are 14-3 in Interleague play and all three losses came at the hands of the Tigers. They split a pair at Dodger Stadium in early April, but then it was the Tigers holding serve at home winning both meetings, one of which was a 14-5 Tigers win in matchup between Justin Verlander and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

The Tigers enter this weekend's play on a four-game losing streak and have the majors second-worst ERA (5.08). The Dodgers are ranked MLB's No. 1 in ERA (3.11). It's hard to make a case for the Tigers to win more than one game in this series.

Detroit's poor form happens when it's supposed to, winning just once in its last 11 games as an underdog. Detroit's poor pitching has helped eight of its last nine go 'over' the total. Check the winds on that angle as well; Friday it was blowing out 12 mph to left field.

The Dodgers are currently the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook's 2/1 favorite to win the World Series.

Arizona (67-54) at Minnesota (60-59)

Scheduled Rotation: (Godley 5-5) vs. Santana (12-7), Shipley (0-1) vs. Colon (4-10)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -135, Twins +125

After splitting a four game home-and-away series with Houston, Arizona just went 4-6 on a brutal 10-game stretch that began at Chase Field by going 1-2 against the Dodgers and then 1-2 against the Cubs. Since going 53-36 at the All-Star break -- a club record, they've stumbled in the second-half, 14-18.

The Twins have won eight of their last 11, but Arizona has won 11 of 14 inter-league games. They have MLB's No. 2 ranked team ERA (3.61), Minnesota is No. 26 (4.77). This is a team defining series for the Twins, who are just 28-35 at home this season. They're six games out of the American League Central, but are in the middle of a wild eight-team race for the final AL Wild Card.

Eight teams are within three games of each other for the stretch run. The Twins are only one game behind the Angels. I'd look for Arizona to bounce back here and score quite a bit of runs in this series. Greinke will handle Saturday, so they have to win either Friday or Sunday to win. Bartolo Colon goes Sunday, so that's a good bet against and try the 'over' in that game as well. Colon has gone 'over' the total in 13 of his 19 starts.

Cleveland (66-53) at Kansas City (61-59)

Scheduled Rotation: Kluber (11-3) vs. Kennedy (4-8 ), Bauer (11-8 ) vs. Vargas (14-6), Salazar (5-5) vs. Hammel (5-9)
Series Price: Indians -155, Royals +135

We still have a long ways to go in the regular season, but the feeling I get in this series is that it's kind of a big deal for the Royals. KC is already 5.5 games behind the Indians in the AL Central while being just half-game behind the Angels for the final AL Wild Card. They'll meet again next weekend in Cleveland and they'll play there again for four games from Sept. 13-17, their last meeting of the regular season. The Royals have a 5-4 edge in the nine meetings already this season.

The Indians return home after a successful eight-game road trip where they won six of their last seven to widen their division lead. The up and down Royals are currently trending up with wins in four of their last five. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the past 15 meetings. And the Indians are currently on a 13-3-1 'under' run improving their MLB-best 'under' record at 70-43-6. That's cashing at a 61 percent rate just by blindly betting them 'under' the total. There's some pretty good pitching matchups in all three games. Other than double-digit mph winds blowing out, the 'under' will be my focus all weekend in this series.

N.Y. Yankees (65-55) at Boston (69-51)

Scheduled Rotation: Montgomery (7-6) vs. Pomeranz (12-4), Sabathia (9-5) vs. Sale (14-4), Gray (7-7) vs. Fister (2-6)
Series Price: Red Sox -170, Yankees +150

The Yankees lost two of three last week at home to the Red Sox, and Station Casinos sports books is saying it's likely to happen again this weekend when they meet at Fenway Park where the Sox are -170 to win the series. However, it's the Yankees that hold a 7-5 season lead. The Red Sox lead the Yanks by four games in the American League East. Boston is currently on a run of winning eight of its last nine home games and winning 11 of its last 12 as a favorite. I love this series traditionally, but I have to admit the last couple of seasons haven't exactly displayed the intensity (A-Rod vs. Varitek), or hate, of years past. Maybe this race down the stretch will start a new chapter in the rivalry.

Oakland (53-68) at Houston (74-47)

Scheduled Rotation: Manea (8-7) vs. Keuchel (10-2), Graveman (3-3) vs. McHugh (0-2), Cotton (5-10) vs. Peacock (10-1)
Series Price: Astros -300, Athletics +260

The Astros have beat up on the A's winning 10 of 12 this season by an 84-46 combined score, but that all came in the first-half. Houston has gone 14-18 in the second-half and their in the middle of an awful 6-13 skid. Is this just a hiccup for Houston or have they really run out of gas? Getting swept at the White Sox eight days ago was a definite low point to what has been an amazing season.

So the question here is whether it's worth taking a shot with Oakland in a couple spots and maybe take them to win the series at +270. The only problem with Oakland is that they've won only 16 times in their last 51 road games. They've also only won six of the past 29 meetings. The Astros rating right now is more about their first-half, so there's going to be 15 cents of value on Oakland in each game. Still, the A's might be just what the Astros needed to bust of this slump.

Seattle (61-61) at Tampa Bay (60-63)

Scheduled Rotation: Ramirez (4-4) vs. Pruitt (6-3), Miranda (7-6) vs. Odorizzi (6-6), Gallardo (5-8 ) vs. Snell (1-6)
Series Price: Rays -145, Mariners +135

The Mariners are 1.5-games behind the Angels for the final AL Wild Card and the Rays are only three back, so this series has a nice story-line behind it. Seattle has won seven of the past nine meetings at Tampa Bay. In their only meeting this season, the M's swept three at Safeco Field in early June. They were blowouts -- all three by at least six runs. The combined score of the series was 28-7. The Mariners won their last two against Baltimore after losing five straight

This series begins a long 12-game road trip that will define who the Mariners really are and where they're going. They are a fun team to watch nightly and the second-half has gone well for them at 18-14 to get them back to .500. Look for lots of runs in this series. Over their last 10 games, Seattle's starters have a 6.43 ERA and the bullpen isn't much better at 4.39. Seven of those last 10 games went 'over' the total. The Westgate SuperBook has Seattle at 40/1 odds and Tampa Bay at 60/1 to win the World Series.

L.A. Angels (62-59) at Baltimore (59-62)

Scheduled Rotation: Heaney (0-0) vs. Hellickson (7-7), Ramirez (10-10) vs. Gausman (9-8 ), Bridwell (7-1) vs. Miley (6-10)
Series Price: Orioles -140, Angels +120

Check out the Angels hanging on to the second AL Wild Card! It may be only a half-game lead over the Royals, but it's still impressive considering this team wasn't expected to do much. They've won seven of their last eight and the run started last week at home against the Orioles, who they took two of three from. They then started a four-game series at Seattle, who were ahead of the Angels in the AL West at the time, and promptly swept the M's. They took two of three at Washington and here they are at Baltimore ready to close out this already successful road trip.

Baltimore has been a completely different team at home going 35-23 this season, but lately they've started weekend series out terribly going 3-13 in their last 16 Friday games. Dating back to last season, the past five meetings between these two have stayed 'under' the number. The Angels are currently on a four-game 'under' streak. Baltimore has lost three of its last four including the last two at Seattle. Riding the hot Angels here to win the series looks to be the winning move with Friday and Sunday's games being their most likely wins.