MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 4th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Nationals @ Cubs
Roark is 2-0, 3.46 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2

Hendricks is 0-1, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 3-1 in those four games. Cubs are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Nationals lost four of last six games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Washington is 12-6 in road series openers. Cubs are 6-3 in last nine games, 7-11 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Cardinals @ Reds
Leake is 1-1, 2.25 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. St Louis is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12

Wojciechowski is 0-1, 7.27 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Reds are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-4

Cardinals lost four of last five road games, are 6-10 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Cincinnati won three of last four games; 8-9 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Padres @ Pirates
Wood allowed two runs in six IP (81 PT) in his first San Diego start, a 3-2 win over the Pirates. San Diego’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Nova is 2-3, 6.28 in his last five starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Pirates are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10

Padres won five of last seven games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. San Diego is 5-11 in road series openers. Pittsburgh lost six of last eight games; under is 18-3 in their last 21 home games. Pirates are 7-10 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Mets
Darvish is making his Dodger debut; he was 0-4, 7.00 in his last six starts for Texas. Under is 13-2-1 in his last 16 starts.

deGrom is 3-1, 2.51 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. Mets are 8-2 in his home outings— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7

Dodgers won 10 of last 11 games; under is 4-1 in their last five. LA is 8-1 in last nine road series openers. Mets lost six of last eight games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. New York is 9-3 in last 12 home series openers.

Marlins @ Braves
Conley is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts (over 7-2). Miami is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-2

Dickey is 0-2, 2.95 in his last six starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Atlanta is 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10

Marlins won six of last eight games; over is 7-3 in their last ten. Miami is 8-9 in road series openers. Atlanta lost seven of last eight games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Braves are 8-8 in home series openers.

Phillies @ Rockies
Velasquez is 0-2, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Phillies are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7

Freeland is 3-0, 2.79 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Colorado is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7

Phillies lost their last three games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Phils are 7-12 in road series openers. Colorado won 8 of last 10 home games; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Rockies are 13-4 in home series openers.

Diamondbacks @ Giants
Banda allowed four runs in 5.2 IP (82 PT) in his only ’17 start, a 4-3 loss to Washington. Arizona’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Bumgarner is 1-1, 2.84 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Giants are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1

Arizona is 5-3 in its last eight games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Diamondbacks are 10-7 in road series openers. Giants lost five of last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five. SF is 5-12 in home series openers.

American League

Tigers @ Orioles
Verlander is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Detroit is 2-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Gausman is 5-0, 3.35 in his last seven starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Orioles are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12.

Tigers are 5-1 in last six games; over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Baltimore is 11-6 in last 17 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.

New York @ Cleveland
Garcia is making his NY debut; he is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three starts, for Braves/Twins. Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.

Bauer is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts;; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Indians are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

New York lost its last three games- six of their last seven games stayed under. Cleveland won 10 of its last 13 games; under is 3-1 in their last four.

White Sox @ Red Sox
Rodon is 0-3, 7.32 in his last four starts (over 2-2-2). Chicago is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5

Rodriguez is 0-2, 7.84 in his last four starts (under 9-4). Boston is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

White Sox are 3-16 since All-Star break; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Boston won three of last five games; under is 14-5-1 in last 20 games at Fenway Park.

Mariners @ Royals
Paxton is 6-0, 1.37 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-3

Hammel is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts; his last five starts stayed under. Royals are 5-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-4

Mariners won eight of last 11 road games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Royals lost four of last six games; four of their last five games stayed under.

Blue Jays @ Astros
Valdez is 1-0, 8.00 in two starts for Toronto; over is 2-1 in his starts this year (one with A’s). Jays’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Peacock is 5-0, 1.93 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Astros are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-2

Toronto won three of last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Blue Jays are 4-8 in last 12 road series openers. Houston lost six of last eight games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Astros are 2-6 in last eight home series openers.

Rangers @ Twins
Perez is 0-3, 8.31 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Texas is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3

Colon is 0-1, 5.87 in three starts for the Twins (over 2-1). Twins’— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Rangers lost four of last six games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Minnesota lost eight of last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

A’s @ Angels
Cotton is 2-2, 6.12 in his last five starts; over is 5-3-3 in his last 11 starts. Oakland is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1

Scribner is making his first MLB start; he allowed two runs in four IP in two big league relief stints. He is 10-3, 4.16 in 17 AAA starts.

A’s lost three of last four games, are 6-11 in road series openers. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Angels won their last five home games; three of their last four games overall went over. Halos are 6-11 in home series openers.

Interleague

Brewers @ Rays
Woodruff is making his first MLB start; he was up earlier in year, but pulled a hamstring as he was warming up to start, and went on DL. He is 6-5, 4.46 in 16 AAA starts this season.

Faria is 1-1, 5.51 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Rays are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-1-2

Brewers are 5-12 in last 17 games, 3-3 in last six; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee is 9-8 in road series openers. Rays won four of last five games; under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games. Tampa Bay is 6-10 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Wsh-Chi: Roark 11-8; Hendricks 7-6
StL-Cin: Leake 9-12; Wojciechowski 1-3
SD-Pitt: Wood 1-0 (2-1); Nova 11-10
LA-NY: Darvish 0-0 (9-13); deGrom 14-7
Mia-Atl: Conley 5-4; Dickey 11-10
Phil-Colo: Velasquez 6-7; Freeland 13-7
Az-SF: Banda 0-1; Bumgarner 1-7

American League
Det-Balt: Verlander Gausman 12-11
Chi-Bos: Rodon 2-4; Rodriguez 8-5
NY-Clev: Garcia 0-0 (9-9); Bauer 10-10
Tor-Hst: Valdez 2-0 (1-0); Peacock 9-2
Tex-Minn: Perez 7-13; Colon 0-3 (5-8 )
Sea-KC: Paxton 12-6; Hammel 7-14
A’s-LA: Cotton 6-9; Scribner 0-0

Interleague
Mil-TB: Woodruff 0-0; Faria 8-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Wsh-Chi: Roark 8-19; Hendricks 5-13
StL-Cin: Leake 4-21; Wojciechowski 2-4
SD-Pitt: Wood 0-4; Nova 7-21
LA-NY: Darvish 7-22; deGrom 7-21
Mia-Atl: Conley 4-9; Dickey 6-21
Phil-Colo: Velasquez 4-13; Freeland 6-20
Az-SF: Banda 1-1; Bumgarner 1-8

American League
Det-Balt: Verlander Gausman 6-23
Chi-Bos: Rodon 3-6; Rodriguez 4-13
NY-Clev: Garcia 4-18; Bauer 4-20
Tor-Hst: Valdez 2-3; Peacock 1-11
Tex-Minn: Perez 8-20; Colon 5-16
Sea-KC: Paxton 1-18; Hammel 2-21
A’s-LA: Cotton 6-15; Scribner 0-0

Interleague
Mil-TB: Woodruff 0-0; Faria 2-10

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 57-43 AL, favorites -$468
AL @ NL– 58-51 NL, favorites -$401
Total: 108-101 AL, favorites -$869

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 52-48-2
AL @ NL: Over 61-45-4
Total: Over 113-93-6

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Marlins (9-4 last 13) at Braves

The Dodgers have won 41 of their last 48 games, but the National League team with the second-best record since May 28 is Miami. The Marlins won’t catch the Nationals in the NL East, while sitting 9 ½ games behind Colorado for the second Wild Card berth in the National League. However, Miami has captured four consecutive series, including taking two of three at home from Washington this week.

Miami makes the short trip to Atlanta to face the Braves for the first time since mid-June. Southpaw Adam Conley has strung together three consecutive quality starts since the All-Star break, including victories over Texas and Cincinnati. Conley has been excellent away from Marlins Park this season by compiling a 3-0 record and 1.54 ERA, while going 2-0 in three starts against Atlanta in 2016.

Coldest team: White Sox (3-17 last 20) at Red Sox

Chicago has folded up shop at this point and is looking ahead to the future. Since the All-Star break, the Sox have won just three times, with two of those victories coming in walk-off fashion earlier this week at home against the Indians and Blue Jays. The Sox dropped the opener of their four-game series at Boston on Thursday, 9-5, while falling to 2-6 in their last eight Game 1’s of a series.

Left-hander Carlos Rodon struggled throughout most of July before rebounding with a solid outing in a 3-1 win over Cleveland on Sunday. Rodon scattered six hits and allowed one earned run while striking out nine in 6.2 innings. Chicago faces southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez tonight, looking to snap a nine-game skid against left-handed starting pitchers.

Hottest pitcher: Brad Peacock, Astros (9-1, 2.62 ERA)

The last time Houston faced Toronto in the game prior to the All-Star break, the Astros pulverized the Blue Jays, 19-1. The two teams hook up at Minute Maid Park for a weekend series as Peacock tossed six scoreless innings in the 18-run blowout last month. With Dallas Keuchel recently activated from the disabled list and Lance McCullers, Jr. struggling, Peacock has been a nice surprise as the Astros have won each of his last six starts.

Coldest pitcher: Yu Darvish, Dodgers (6-9, 4.01 ERA)

Darvish makes his Los Angeles debut after getting dealt by Texas earlier in the week. The right-hander finished his Texas tenure by winning only one of his final 12 starts, while the Rangers compiled a 2-10 record in that span. The final start in a Rangers’ uniform was his worst of the season, allowing 10 earned runs in in 3.2 innings of a 22-10 drubbing at the hands of the Marlins on July 26. The Dodgers swept a four-game series from the Mets in June as Los Angeles will look to stay hot at Citi Field, but face Jacob deGrom, who owns an 8-1 record in his last nine starts.

Biggest OVER run: Athletics (4-1 last five)

Oakland finished off its Bay Bridge Series by getting thumped, 11-2 by San Francisco to cash three OVERS in the four-game set. The Giants lit up A’s pitching for double-digit runs twice in the final three games, while Oakland scored six and eight runs in its two victories over their Bay Area rival. The A’s head down to Anaheim for a weekend series with the Angels as right-hander Jharel Cotton tries to put his recent struggles behind him. Cotton has allowed nine earned runs in two July starts, but Oakland has finished UNDER the total in three of his previous four road assignments.

Biggest UNDER run: Padres (5-0 last five)

San Diego travels east to face Pittsburgh for the second straight weekend after the Padres captured two of three from the Pirates at Petco Park to wrap up July. All three games in that series stayed UNDER the total as the Pirates were limited to two runs apiece in their two defeats. Since scoring 13 runs combined in the final two victories over the Mets on July 26 and 27, the Padres have pushed across only 13 runs in the past five contests. Travis Wood makes his second start for San Diego since getting dealt from Kansas City as the southpaw limited Pittsburgh to two runs and two hits in six innings of a 3-2 triumph last Friday.

Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Royals

Kansas City rebounded after getting swept at Baltimore by rallying past Seattle on Thursday, 6-4. The Royals remained 2 ½ games behind the Indians in the AL Central as Kansas City knocked off Seattle for the fourth time in four tries this season. The Mariners dropped their second straight game following a four-game winning streak as Seattle fell 2 ½ games back of Kansas City for the second Wild Card spot in the American League.

The M’s are flipped to a road favorite on Friday as James Paxton heads to the mound. The southpaw won all six of his July starts, while not allowing a single run in his previous two outings against the Red Sox and Mets. Paxton didn’t face the Royals when Kansas City swept Seattle at Safeco Field in early July, while tossing eight innings in a 4-3 loss at Kauffman Stadium last season after the M’s squandered a 3-0 lead.

Jason Hammel counters for the Royals, as Kansas City shoots for its sixth consecutive home victory. The Royals are unbeaten in Hammel’s last three appearances, including a pair of underdog wins at Detroit and Boston. Hammel hasn’t had much luck pitching at home this season as Kansas City owns a 4-9 record, while the righty has turned into an UNDER machine of late by hitting five straight UNDERS.

Betcha didn’t know: The Twins have performed better on the road than at home this season, as Minnesota dropped the opener of its series to Texas on Thursday. However, Minnesota owns a 4-1 record at Target Field in its last five opportunities following a home loss since mid-June, while Texas is riding a four-game road winning streak.

Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-210) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Athletics (+115) at Angels

Biggest line move: Yankees (+140 to +120) at Indians

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: St. Louis Cardinals -135

The Cardinals and Reds are going to be playing at Great American Ballpark Friday night with Mike Leake and Asher Wojciechowski starting. The Cardinals are about as average a team as can exist in the MLB, and opted to stand pat at the deadline. I’m not sure that there was an obvious move to make outside of moving Lynn, but with the absence of a lot of buyers, the Cardinals evidently didn’t think it was worth selling. The Reds meanwhile are in one of the tougher situations in the league in my opinion, with a lot of good positional players, but no good pitchers whatsoever. It may be awhile before the farm system saves their rotation.

Mike Leake has been a consistently good pitcher for the Cardinals all season. Leake has an ERA of 3.29, and an xFIP of 3.98. I think it’s worth noting that the peripherals being worse than the ERA seems consistent with the style of pitcher that Leake is. He’s a control pitcher who limits walks, and gets a high rate of groundballs, which will also limit the BABIP. His current BABIP isn’t too far off of his career average, so I actually think the ERA is pretty sustainable.

Asher Wojciechowski is one of the many pitchers that the Reds are giving a chance to this season. Wojciechowski so far seems to actually be an interesting option going forward for the Reds. I don’t think it’s likely that he will be a great starter, but he may be worthy of a backend spot on a playoff team. He has an ERA of 4.50, with nearly identical peripheral stats. His greatest strength is his ability to strike batters out, with a strikeout rate of 9.26 per nine innings. It’s hard to say if he’s going to continue striking guys out at such a high rate, given the fact that projections don’t like him nearly as much as me. Ultimately, I’m a huge fan of Leake, so I would feel good taking the Cardinals in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Detroit Tigers +115

The Tigers and Orioles are going to be playing at Camden Yards with Justin Verlander and Kevin Gausman starting. The Tigers may still be looking to move Verlander as a waiver deal, but I think it’s very unlikely, and mostly just dreams from the sports media to talk about something interesting. Gausman meanwhile is part of one of the worst rotations in baseball.
Justin Verlander is one of the hardest pitchers in the MLB to get a food feeling for. His ERA is at 4.29, with pretty similar peripheral stats. The only big concern that I have with Verlander is his very high walk rate which is at 4.15 per nine innings. He’s never been a great control pitcher, but his zone rating is a career low this season, so the walk rate doesn’t seem entirely like an anomaly to me. It’s just hard for me to see the stuff that he still has, and not think that he’s still a really high upside pitcher. It’s tough for me to not like Verlander as an underdog against a pitcher like Gausman. I would feel okay taking the Tigers at +115 in this game.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners under 8

The Mariners and Royals are going to be playing at Kaufmann stadium with James Paxton and Jason Hammel starting. I think there is a really strong chance that both of these teams could get the second wild card spot. The Royals occupy it right now, and solidified their rotation at the deadline by acquiring Trevor Cahill.

I’ll be honest and say that the only real reason that I like the under in this game is because of how much I like James Paxton. Outside of Sale and Kluber, I don’t think that there is any clear superior pitcher in the American League. Paxton has an ERA of 2.68, and an xFIP of 3.23, and has been worth almost 4 wins by fangraphs WAR, even though he missed a bit of time due to injury. Paxton has no clear weaknesses, as he can strike batters out, avoids walks, throws with good velocity, and has pretty good batted ball stats. Paxton playing at a pretty good pitching stadium like Kauffman, I would feel good about the under in this game.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis (-130) at Cincinnati; Total: 9.5

Mike Leake takes on his former squad in his former home park as the Cardinals open up a weekend set with the Cincinnati Reds. St. Louis suffered a series loss on Thursday with a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds were shut out by Chad Kuhl at PNC Park. I thought about skipping the analysis on this game to spare myself from typing out Asher Wojciechowski’s name, but I’ll just Ctrl + C, Ctrl + V it instead.

Leake is having a terrific season. He has a 3.29 ERA with a 4.07 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP. I mentioned prior to Leake’s last start that he had commented to some reporters that he felt like he was having a tough time maintaining his strength between starts. That doesn’t seem to be an issue with his performance. He’s never missed a lot of bats, but he’s a soft contact wizard with a high ground ball rate, so he’s been able to have a lot of success throughout his career. There aren’t any outliers that concern me as it pertains to his 2017 performance. His HR/FB% is up a bit, but that’s because he’s posting the lowest GB% of his career. Those are things that you have to look for when handicapping pitchers. He’s actually allowing fewer home runs than last season, but an increased GB% means a fewer number of fly balls, therefore his HR/FB% is a little higher.

Asher Wojciechowski takes the hill for the Reds. Wojciechowski has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP in four starts and eight relief appearances. He’s added some strikeouts to his repertoire this season, but keep in mind that 75 percent of his appearances are out of the bullpen. Wojciechowski made his four starts from May 30 to June 17 and has worked out of the pen since. He gave up 16 of the 19 runs he has allowed in those four starts. He hasn’t worked more than two innings since July 17, so who knows how long he will work in this game.

This looks like a spot to take the Cardinals. The Reds have some decent back-end of the bullpen options, but Wojciechowski probably won’t last too long in this game and the Reds will have to use lesser relievers to bridge the gap. Both offenses have struggled of late, so the under may be a consideration as well. With Wojciechowski working out of the bullpen most of the year, my guess is that he should be able to get through the lineup once before he runs into trouble.

Detroit at Baltimore (-130); Total: 9

The Orioles saw their winning streak end at five games last night against the Tigers in a 7-5 decision. Today, it will be Justin Verlander and Kevin Gausman facing off. Both pitchers are trending upwards at this point in the season. Verlander has allowed just nine runs, eight earned, on 25 hits over his last 32 innings of work with 34 strikeouts. He seems to be turning things around after a rough start to the season. We’ve seen Verlander go on second-half runs in recent years, so it shouldn’t come as a big surprise that he got off to a slow start and has turned the ship in the right direction.

Similarly, Kevin Gausman has a 3.15/3.37/3.13 in his last seven starts covering 40 innings of work. He has 49 K and 13 BB in that span. He’s still dealing with a little bit of an elevated BABIP, but he’s been pretty dominant in four of his last six starts. He gave up eight runs to the Cubs in his first start out of the Break, which skewed the numbers and his home run rate, since he allowed four of those. The Tigers are a fade team for me against any right-handed pitcher of consequence at this stage of the game. Anybody average or better and I’m looking to fade the Tigers.

In this instance, I’ll look to do it with the team total rather than lay the price with the Orioles. That being said, with Shane Greene unavailable for the Tigers after working three straight days, it might be a challenge for Brad Ausmus to find somebody to close this game out. The market is tilting in Baltimore’s direction again today and I’m sure Detroit’s bullpen status, especially relative to the strength of the Orioles pen, is a consideration. I think there are a few ways to play this game, including the full game under and possibly some live betting spots.

New York at Cleveland (-130); Total: 9.5

The market is not a believer in laying -155 with the Cleveland Indians as Trevor Bauer faces Jaime Garcia. Any time you see the market fade a guy with a 5.25 ERA and a 3.73 xFIP, you take notice. I will say this: I am concerned about Bauer tonight as well. Bauer is a routine-oriented guy. He wants to throw as much as humanly possible. With Wednesday’s game rained out, Terry Francona wanted to keep Corey Kluber on his regular turn, so he pitched on Thursday night, pushing Bauer to Friday. When Bauer pitched on extra rest after the All-Star Break, he didn’t make it out of the first inning. When he pitched on extra rest on July 5, he gave up four runs, three earned, on eight hits over five innings. When his schedule was thrown off by having a rain-shortened start in Kansas City on June 4, he gave up four runs on five hits in 3.1 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field in his next start.

I really believe that these things affect Bauer more than they do other pitchers. It’s just the way that he’s wired. I don’t think there’s a ton of flexibility with him. I think he likes black and white. He doesn’t like grey. With another adjustment to his schedule, it really wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggle.

Jaime Garcia makes his Yankees debut after making a cameo start for the Twins. In his 19 starts this season, Garcia has a 4.29 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP. Garcia’s entire game plan is to get the opposition to hit the ball on the ground. One thing that does stand out to me about Garcia is his walk rate at 8.8 percent. That is the highest walk rate he has posted in a season since 2010. Most people don’t realize it, but the Indians are tied for second in BB% at 9.8 percent. Garcia’s been able to work around the walks because of his ability to induce double plays and limit big innings by not allowing extra-base hits, but there has been a lot of traffic out there on the bases.

In looking at this game, I have to look at the over. Trevor Bauer allows a lot of hard contact on his fastball and a lot of hard contact overall. Garcia is reliant on ground balls get hit at fielders, otherwise things can get pretty dicey for him with that walk rate. Rain is in the forecast tonight, so the Indians and Yankees may have to get creative with bullpen usage. That would threaten the under in a big way in my mind, with both lineups seeing different relievers every inning or two innings. Keep an eye on the weather. If this game looks like it will go interrupted, the over is the way to look.

Los Angeles (-125) at New York; Total: 7.5

Ah, it’s good to see a 7.5 total. That’s what happens when Yu Darvish and Jacob deGrom get together. This will be the first start for Darvish in Dodger blue. It seemed like he was going to stay in Texas, but a very late deal came together and hit the wire after the 4 p.m. ET Trade Deadline passed that sent Darvish to the Dodgers. Somehow, the unquestioned best team in baseball got even better.

Darvish gave up 10 runs on nine hits in his last start back on July 26. He was pitching with a lot of distractions with the Trade Deadline approaching and simply didn’t have it. It happens. He also gave up seven runs to Boston on July 4. Outside of those two starts, Darvish has allowed just 44 earned runs in 20 starts covering 129 innings of work. In the start before his ill-fated outing against the Marlins, Darvish induced 30 swings and misses in eight innings against the Rays. He also gets a little bit of a defensive upgrade going from the Rangers to the Dodgers.

Jacob deGrom is getting overlooked in this start. It’s pretty obvious why that is the case, since Darvish was the biggest name to move at the deadline and the Dodgers look like a team that could sweep the ’27 Yankees, and no, I don’t mean because they’re all dead. deGrom has a 3.29 ERA with a 3.56 FIP and a 3.36 xFIP on the season in his 21 starts. He’s struck out 162 in 139.2 innings of work. A home run problem has popped up for JDG this season, but I’m not overly worried about it. He gave up four solo home runs in his July 7 start against St. Louis and has allowed two home runs in a start here or there over the course of the season. Since allowing 15 runs over his two starts prior to June 12, deGrom has a 1.73 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 3.41 xFIP. He’s struck out 68 in 67.2 innings of work.

I don’t know what to do with this game other than savor a pitching matchup like this. Darvish has been a little inconsistent lately, but the fact that deGrom is going on the other side has created a manageable number for taking the best team in baseball. There’s also a learning curve to changing teams and changing catchers that Darvish has to go through. Because he’s a rental and doesn’t know where he’ll be playing next season, he has some different family considerations behind the scenes.

It’s best just to stay away and simply take this game for what it is. A battle between two premier pitchers.

Oakland at Los Angeles (-130); Total: 9

Jharel Cotton and Troy Scribner duke it out at Angel Stadium in this AL West showdown. It’s hard to bet against the Angels right now because Mike Trout is attempting to make up for the time he missed so that he can win another AL MVP trophy. He’s carrying this offense right now and everybody has fallen in line behind the best position player on the planet.

Cotton has been a major disappointment for me this season. I, like too many others, overvalued the five starts he made last season with a 2.15 ERA and a 3.76 FIP. His low minors numbers have been good and his upper minors numbers have been solid, but it was a fool’s errand to think that they would translate to the bigs so quickly. He’s got a 5.49 ERA with a 5.28 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP in 15 starts covering 80.1 MLB innings this season. His strikeout rate is fine, but his command and control have both been a problem and he’s only stranded 64 percent of his runners.

I don’t understand what the A’s are doing with him. Cotton’s best pitch is his changeup, but his usage of that pitch is down almost 10 percent this season. His slider (PITCHf/x) / cutter (Pitch Info Solutions) usage has gone up more than 10 percent. Both pitches have been negatives for him this season. Add that to poor fastball command and that’s how you wind up with a 5.50 ERA. Cotton is getting ahead in counts and has a decent swinging strike rate, but he’s not getting a lot of swings and misses outside of the zone. Pitchers need those things. That’s how they get back into counts or put hitters away. With the elevated walk rate, Cotton has been able to work very deep into games either.

Troy Scribner made 17 starts and one relief appearance at Triple-A before getting the call to the big leagues. He’s worked two games in relief and now gets his first chance to start. Scribner struck out over a batter per inning in Triple-A, but only has a couple of strikeouts out of his 15 batters faced at the MLB level. Nothing really jumps out about Scribner’s Triple-A performance. He had a 4.16 ERA with a 4.73 FIP and a 4.58 xFIP. He tilts towards the fly ball side and he’s in the Pacific Coast League, so it’s not a big surprise that his advanced metrics don’t point towards success. The PCL is full of hitter-friendly ballparks and good offensive weather conditions. Angel Stadium remains one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.

I’m not entirely sure what to expect from Scribner in this start, yet I feel like the Angels are still the side. The A’s are scuffling and live off of hitting for power. Angel Stadium doesn’t allow much of that. Scribner does have the ability to give up some home runs, but his fly ball style should play much better in Anaheim than it has in the minor leagues.

thanks man

Mets host Dodgers on Friday night
By: StatFox.com

The Dodgers will be going for their 11th win in 12 games when they face the struggling Mets on Friday.

Los Angeles is currently unrivaled as the best team in baseball, as the team has seven more wins than the next best team (Houston) and also has a ridiculous run differential of +187. The Dodgers have also allowed fewer runs than anybody in baseball, as they have given up only 361 on the season. The next best team in that regard is the Indians, who have allowed 422. The crazy thing is that the Dodgers did nothing but improve their pitching at the deadline. One of the moves they made was to acquire RHP Yu Darvish (6-9, 4.01 ERA, 148 K), who will be making his debut for Los Angeles in this one. Darvish will definitely want to put on a show in his first start for his new team, but outdueling RHP Jacob deGrom (12-4, 3.29 ERA, 162 K) is no easy task. One trend that favors the Dodgers in this game is the fact that they are 50-20 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Darvish’s teams are, however, a lousy 26-31 against the money line in the second half of the season since he came into the league. That suggests that his durability is a bit of a concern, as he is likely to get tired later in the year. Still, the Dodgers are a lot better than the Rangers ever were.

The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball and Yu Darvish will look to help them stay that way on Friday. The righty had been struggling with Texas before being dealt to Los Angeles, but perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. Things with the Rangers were not going well this season, and he now joins a team with actual expectations. That change in mentality could give him a new sense of focus. It helps he’ll be facing a Mets lineup that is very easy to shut down. On offense, 1B Cody Bellinger (.268 BA, 30 HR, 71 RBI) is a guy that could easily come through in this one. He is hitting very well recently, as he homered in two straight games before going 0-for-5 against the Braves on Thursday. It would not be surprising to see him make it three in four games here. SS Corey Seager (.302 BA, 18 HR, 53 RBI) could also be in for a big game here. Seager has seen his average rise from .293 to .302 over the past 10 games, and he is really seeing the ball well at this point.

The Mets are obviously in the middle of a disappointing season, but they are still trying to finish the year off strong. They definitely have a shot in this one, as deGrom is going to be on the mound in this game. The righty has really been rolling recently, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four straight games for New York. Also working in deGrom’s favor is the fact that he allowed only one earned run in seven innings of work against the Dodgers in his most recent start against the team. That was, however, on May 27, 2016. Los Angeles is a lot more dangerous this season. As for the New York offense, it’d be big if OF Yoenis Cespedes (.281 BA, 11 HR, 30 RBI) had a good game here. Staying healthy this season has been tough for Cespedes, but he has been productive when on the field. He also happens to have eight RBI over the past 10 games, and he homered on Thursday. His confidence is as high as it has been all season heading into this one.

thanks man

My pleasure doctorlynn