MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 14th, 2017

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers

The Toronto Blue Jays (41-47, –14.29 betting units) could use a break. They ended the unofficial first half of the regular season Sunday afternoon with an embarrassing 19-1 loss at home to the top team in the American League, the Houston Astros (–125). After pausing for the All-Star Game, the Jays return to action Friday night with a road tilt against the Detroit Tigers; first pitch is at 7:10 PM ET on Sportsnet.

Aaron Sanchez (6.38 FIP) has already been penciled in to start for Toronto. Sanchez was one of the best pitchers on the junior circuit last year, but blisters and a split fingernail have limited his effectiveness this season and sent him to the DL on three separate occasions. In his most recent return, Sanchez was rocked by the Astros for five earned runs Friday night in just 1.2 innings of work.

Jays have had succes vs Tigers winning 8 of the past 11 encounters. But, are 0-2 in Sanchez's 2 career starts vs Tigers. Sanchez trades pitches with Justin Verlander carrying an 0-3 teams start skid vs Toronto.

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Leake is 1-2, 6.07 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). St Louis is 5-2 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2.

Cole is 4-1, 3.45 in his last five starts; under is 11-4-1 in his last 16. Pirates are 5-3 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 4-11-3.

Cardinals won three of last four games, are 4-8 in road series openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Pittsburgh won five of last six games; they’re 5-9 in home series openers. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.

Nationals @ Reds
Gonzalez is 0-2, 2.37 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Washington is 6-3 in his last nine starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-3.

Adleman is 1-4, 5.88 in his last five starts (over 8-6-1). Cincinnati is 5-3 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1.

Nationals won five of last seven games, are 9-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cincinnati is 8-5 in its last 13 games, 8-6 in home series openers. Under is 9-0-1 in their last ten games.

Rockies @ Mets
Colorado is 5-0 in Gray starts (2-0, 4.13); under is 3-1-1 in those games. Rockies won all three of his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1.

deGrom is 5-0, 1.85 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Mets are 5-3 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-1.

Rockies are 2-11 in last 13 road games, 9-6 in road series openers. Under is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games. New York lost five of last six games; they’re 7-2 in last nine home series openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Dodgers @ Marlins
McCarthy is 1-1, 3.29 in his last five starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 3-2 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1.

Straily is 3-0, 1.99 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Miami is 6-3 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-1.

Dodgers won their last six games, are 5-1 in last six road series openers. Under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Miami won five of last six games; they’re 5-2 in last seven home series openers. Under is 5-0-1 in their last six home games.

Diamondbacks @ Braves
Walker is 0-1, 5.89 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Arizona is 5-2 in his road outings- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2.

Dickey is 2-0, 1.00 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Braves are 7-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-3.

Diamondbacks lost five of last six games, are 8-5 in road series openers. Under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Atlanta lost four of last six games, is 7-6 in home series openers. Five of their last six games went over.

Phillies @ Brewers
Pivetta is 1-0, 2.57 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Phillies are 2-5 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2

Davies is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Milwaukee is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Phillies lost five of last six games, are 7-8 in road series openers. Under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. Milwaukee is 9-2 in its last 11 games, 8-7 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Giants @ Padres
Cueto is 1-2, 4.99 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Giants are 5-5 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-4

Richard is 0-1, 6.14 in his last four starts (under 10-8). San Diego is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1

Giants lost five of last six games, are 7-8 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. San Diego won five of last seven games; they’re 10-5 in home series openers. Under is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

American League

New York @ Boston
Pineda is 1-1, 8.39 in his last five starts; his last eight starts went over. New York is 4-3 in his road outings- their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9

Pomeranz is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Boston is 7-2 in his Fenway starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7

New York lost six of last eight games; they’re 8-4 in last 12 road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Boston lost four of last five games, is 10-4 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Blue Jays @ Tigers
Sanchez is 0-2, 6.23 in six starts this year (under 4-2). Toronto is 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1

Verlander is 0-2, 7.20 in his last two starts; over is 6-4 in his last 10 starts. Detroit is 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-3

Blue Jays won three of last four road games, are 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Detroit is 3-5 in its last eight games, 10-4 in home series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Mariners @ White Sox
Paxton is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3

Shields is 1-1, 9.42 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. White Sox are 2-1 in his home starts-— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1

Mariners lost five of last seven games; they’re 5-8 in road series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Chicago lost four of last five games; they’re 5-7 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Twins @ Astros
Berrios is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts (under 8-2-1). Minnesota is 4-2 in his road starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1

Morton is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Astros are 5-2 in his home starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-2

Twins lost six of last eight road games, are 9-4 in road series openers. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Houston won six of last eight games; they’re 0-5 in last five home series openers. Over is 11-2 in their last 13 games.

Rangers @ Royals
Perez is 2-1, 7.01 in his last seven starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Rangers are 1-4 in his road stats— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-3

Hammel is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11. Royals are 3-8 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10-3

Rangers are 2-5 in last seven road games, 5-9 in road series openers. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Kansas City lost its last three games, is 7-7 in home series openers. Over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Indians @ A’s
Carrasco is 5-0, 3.60 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Cleveland is 8-1 in his road starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-1

Gray is 2-1, 2.14 in his last three starts (over 10-3). Oakland is 5-3 in his home starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5

Indians are 9-2 in last 11 road games, 6-8 in road series openers. Under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Oakland won four of last six games, is 6-8 in home series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Rays @ Angels
Faria is 4-0, 2.35 in his first six MLB starts (under 3-2-1). Rays are 3-0 in his road starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 5-0-1

Nolasco is 2-2, 5.24 in his last four stats; under is 8-3-1 in his last 12. Angels are 3-5 in his home starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Rays won three of last four games, are 10-5 in road series openers. Over is 3-1 in their last four road games. Angels are 3-7 in last ten games, 5-8 in home series openers. Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Interleague

Cubs @ Orioles
Montgomery is 0-3, 8.40 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his starts. Cubs are 0-3 in his road starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

Gausman is 2-0, 3.24 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 7-3 in his home starts- – their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11

Cubs are 4-8 in last 12 games overall, 8-17 in last 25 road games, 6-8 in road series openers. Under is 11-2 in their last 13 road games. Baltimore lost four of last five home games; they’re 10-4 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Leake 8-9; Cole 10-8
Wsh-Cin: Gonzalez 9-9; Adleman 6-9
Col-NY: Gray 5-0; deGrom 11-6
LA-Mia: McCarthy 10-4; Straily 11-7
Az-Atl: Walker 10-4; Dickey 10-7
Phil-Mil: Pivetta 3-8; Davies 12-6
SF-SD: Cueto 9-9; Richard 7-11

American League
NY-Bos: Pineda 10-7; Pomeranz 11-6
Tor-Det: Sanchez 2-4; Verlander 8-10
Sea-Chi: Paxton 8-6; Shields 3-4
Min-Hst: Berrios 8-3; Morton 7-4
Tex-KC: Perez 6-10; Hammel 4-13
Clev-A’s: Carrasco 14-3; Gray 6-7
TB-LAA: Faria 5-1; Nolasco 5-13

Interleague
Chi-Balt: Montgomery 1-5; Gausman 9-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Pitt: Leake 3-17; Cole 6-18
Wsh-Cin: Gonzalez 6-18; Adleman 4-15
Col-NY: Gray 1-5; deGrom 6-17
LA-Mia: McCarthy 2-14; Straily 4-18
Az-Atl: Walker 5-14; Dickey 6-17
Phil-Mil: Pivetta 4-11; Davies 6-18
SF-SD: Cueto 6-18; Richard 4-18

American League
NY-Bos: Pineda 10-17; Pomeranz 5-17
Tor-Det: Sanchez 1-6; Verlander 6-18
Sea-Chi: Paxton 1-14; Shields 3-7
Min-Hst: Berrios 3-11; Morton 1-11
Tex-KC: Perez 6-16; Hammel 1-17
Clev-A’s: Carrasco 3-17; Gray 2-13
TB-LAA: Faria 2-6; Nolasco 5-18

Interleague
Chi-Balt: Montgomery 2-6; Gausman 4-19

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 45-32 AL, favorites -$1,093
AL @ NL– 47-44 NL, favorites -$390
Total: 88-77 AL, favorites -$1,483

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 44-36-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-37-3
Total: Over 92-73-5

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (6-0 last six, 9-1 last nine)

Wrapping up home sweeps of Arizona and Kansas City helped L.A. finish one win ahead of Houston for the best record in baseball at the All-Star break. Clayton Kershaw pitched a complete game to deliver the win, but isn't expected to be in the mix until next week. Brandon McCarthy will look to keep the winning streak alive after a promising start last time out as he battles back from a stint on the disabled list and a case of the yips. If he can strengthen his hold on a spot in the rotation and pitch consistently, the Dodgers have a shot at 100 wins. He'll run into a hot counterpart in Miami's Dan Straily, who comes off nearly throwing his first career complete game and has been outstanding over his last five starts.

Coldest team: Diamondbacks (1-5 last six, 3-8 last 11)

All this unexpected swoon has done to the Snakes is increase the likelihood that they'll be in the NL's Wild Card game. Catching the Dodgers is going to be tougher now, but Arizona remains ahead in the race to host the Wild Card, up two games on Colorado and nearly 10 on the Cubs and Cards, currently both on the outside looking in. The Diamondbacks get back at it against a hot knuckleballer in R.A. Dickey (1.00 ERA over last four), which doesn't sound like an easy rebound opportunity from the layoff after scoring a single run over two home losses to Cincinnati last weekend. The D'Backs see the Reds again next week for a shot at revenge, but begin a six-game road trip in Atlanta hoping that Taijuan Walker can help stop the bleeding.

Hottest pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, Indians (10-3, 3.44 ERA)

The Tribe has won 11 of their Venenzuelan righty's last 12 starts and are 14-3 on the season. They even won when he got rocked by the Rangers on June 26, rallying for a memorable 15-9 win. He's given up two or fewer runs in five of his last six outings, making his shortest, ugliest outing a true outlier. Carrasco has struck out 46 while walking just nine within that span. He's been brilliant on the road (7-1, 2.38) this season and is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career outings against Oakland, where counterpart Sonny Gray could very well be making his final start.

Coldest pitcher: Mike Montgomery, Cubs (1-6, 3.75 ERA)

Even though he has't pitched as poorly as it sounds, the Cubs have dropped six of the seven appearances Montgomery has made since Joe Maddon inserted him into the rotation. The most recent one came in relief on Sunday during a 14-3 home loss to get him additional work after he lasted just 2.1 innings after surrendering seven runs in an 11-2 loss to the Brewers. His ERA this month is 15.19 and his WHIP is a robust 2.63. Among hitters he's set to face in the Orioles lineup at Camden Yards, only Welington Castillo has successfully reached, homering. Oddsmakers view the opening game of MLB's lone interleague series as a pick'em entering Friday.

Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (10-1-1 last 12)

Colorado is 5-13 since June 21 and has dropped a significant share of no-shows where it seems like the team would collectively rather be anywhere else. They maxed out at 6 runs for the first 15 games of that stretch, but scored 12 against the White Sox last Friday at Coors and registered a 10-0 win on Sunday. Can the bats remain productive on the road in Queens? The Rockies will run into Jacob deGrom first, which isn't ideal since he's 5-0 over his last five, surrendering one run or fewer in their first four of this stretch. Colorado ace Jon Gray is making his third start in retruning from a two-month DL stint after breaking his left foot. The number opened at 8.

Biggest OVER run: Astros (10-1-1 last 12)

In a figurative bat flip to open All-Star festivities, baseball's best offense dropped a 19-run bomb on the Blue Jays to earn the team's 60th win on Sunday, marking the fourth time in the team's last six games that they've ventured into double-digits. Houston's production has been cartoonish, so we'll see whether having a pause dropped into its lap manages to slow the bats down. The Astros are home to face Twins' phenom Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.53), who they've already beaten once. Houston touched him up for four earned runs over five innings in a 7-2 win on May 30 without the benefit of a home run. Charlie Morton will get the nod to try and continue the team's winning ways after a sharp first outing coming off a DL stint.

Matchup to watch: Yankees at Red Sox

New York opened a seven-game road trip by picking up its sixth straight win on June 12 and then dropped seven consecutive contests, beginning a 7-18 run over their final 25 games before the break. They'll look to get back on track in Boston against a rival that has taken full advantage of the Yankees' futility, carrying a 3.5-game lead in the AL East into tonight despite coming in losers of four of five. Drew Pomeranz, who is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA over his last five, gets the ball first for the Sox. Michael Pineda will pitch for the Yankees after allowing three homers and lasting just three innings as he was booed in the Bronx. He hasn't been good on the road (5.73 ERA over seven starts), but did win at Houston in one of his best outings since beating Boston 9-1 on June 8, surrendering one unearned run over seven innings. The teams will command a nationally-televised spotlight all weekend.

Betcha didn’t know: The Brewers got to the All-Star break in sole possession of first place for the first time since '14, but this 5.5-game bulge is their largest lead ever. They finished third three years ago and are by far the most surprising team leading a division at the unofficial halfway point, but it would be a mistake to sell what Milwaukee has accomplished to this point short. Even with defending champion Chicago and St. Louis each two games under .500 and struggling more than anyone expected, the Brewers lead the NL with 138 homers and rank only behind Houston (148) in all of baseball. They're also topping the National League with 75 stolen bases and have pitched well. Zach Davies has won five of his last six decisions and can match last season's career-high win total if he picks up his 11th as a heavy favorite at home against Philadelphia.

Biggest public favorite: Brewers (-165) vs. Phillies

Biggest public underdog: Padres (+101) vs. Giants

Biggest line move: Mariners (-155 to -170) at White Sox

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Washington (52-36) at Cincinnati (39-49)

Scheduled Rotation: Gonzalez (7-4) vs. Adleman (5-6), TBA vs. Castillo (1-1), TBA vs. Bailey (2-2), TBA vs. Feldman (7-6)
Series Price: TBA

Are you kidding me with this Nationals lineup featuring the top three hitters in the National League? Daniel Murphy (.342), Ryan Zimmerman (.330) and Bryce Harper (.325) are 1-2-3. And to boot, they also have starters with two of the top three ERA's with Max Scherzer (2.1) and Gio Gonzalez (2.86). The only thing stopping them from being a great bet at 6/1 odds to win the World Series is their lousy bullpen which has an MLB-worst 5.20 ERA. You can bet that a few trades will be made for bullpen relief before the deadline at the end of the month. If you've been betting the Nationals all season you'd have to say they're overrated, or overpriced, because you would be down -1.1 units despite them being 16 games over .500. The Nats went 'over' in their last three before the break, but the Reds have been on an incredible 10-1-1 'under' run thanks to a vastly improved bullpen. Cincinnati has gone 23-20 at home, but lost two of three at Washington in their only meetings this season.

St. Louis (43-45) at Pittsburgh (42-47)

Scheduled Rotation: Leake (6-7) vs. Cole (7-7), Lynn (7-6) vs. Kuhl (3-6), Martinez (6-8 ) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

Both teams have been disappointing, but I'm sure they'd both gladly take where they're at with St. Louis being only 5.5 back out of first tied with the Cubs and Pittsburgh being only seven games back. Last season the Pirates finished five games under like they performed in the first-half and finished 25 games back because of the dominant Cubs. I love what Milwaukee has done, but that starting rotation isn't running away with the National League Central, sorry. The Cardinals are the team that could actually make a run just because of their pitching, which ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.97 ERA. The Cards are -9.5 units so far if betting daily, but I like them to be one of the more profitable teams in the second-half because of their pitching. Their hitting will come around. The Cards are on a run of going only 5-12 in their last 17 road games but they've beaten the Bucs in seven of the last nine meetings. The 'under' has been a good bet in this series -- seven of the past 10 -- and Pittsburgh has gone 19-6-2 to the 'under' in its last 27 games overall.

Los Angeles Dodgers (61-29) at Miami (41-46)

Scheduled Rotation: McCarthy (6-3) vs. Straily (7-4), Wood (10-0) vs. TBA, Hill 95-4) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

An interesting look for a Dodgers player to win MVP is rookie sensation Cody Bellinger, who has 18/1 odds. He's hit 25 homers and 58 RBI in 70 games and really has been the key to the Dodgers offense charging to the largest margin of victory (+1.8 ). That effort has helped them topple Colorado and Arizona and get 32 games over .500 which has them 7.5 games out front in the National League West. There's been several instances in baseball where a key player with lesser stats won because of the contribution to a team making the postseason. Only Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki has won rookie-of-the-year and MVP in the same season. In 1981, Fernando-mania gave him the rookie-of-the-year award and Cy Young -- man, what a wild, magical strike-shortened season that was and it ended with a World Series title for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have MLB's best record and are now the 7/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $350) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win it all. Meanwhile, Miami is in the selling mode as the trade deadline approaches, but they have won 14 of its last 20 at home. For whatever reason over the years, these two squads score a lot when they hook-up going 42-16-6 to the 'over' in their last 64 meetings.

Arizona (53-36) at Atlanta (42-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Walker (10-4) vs. Dickey (6-5), Corbin (6-9) vs. Foltynewscz (7-5), Godley (3-3 vs. Garcia (2-7)
Series Price: TBA

Arizona has had the most rapidly dropped World Series odds from an opener of 100/1 down to 18/1. Its success stems from getting solid starts from the rotation. The club is No. 2 in baseball with the lowest ERA (3.43) behind the Dodgers (3.24) which is why they also have the most rapidly improved team rating. They've netted +15.2 units if you've bet them every day this season. Getting swept at home by the Dodgers before the break really slowed some of their momentum, but they haven't lost more than three straight all season and that's a testament to their starters. Paul Goldschimdt (.312, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 13 SB) also got back to his normal self in the first half after being sluggish in 2016. The Westgate is offering him as the 11/4 co-favorite with Joey Votto and Bryce Harper to win the 2017 NL Most Valuable Player award. Despite Arizona finishing the first-half going 1-5, they still ended up with a franchise-best first-half record. Atlanta should be applauded for hanging in there and battling after a rough start. They were nine games under .500 on May 10, but are now only three games back. The Braves need to clean up their act in games decided by five runs or more where they are 8-20. Despite the losing record, they do win a few with chunky prices and have netted +5.2 units on the season. R.A. Dickey is +4.8 units with the Braves going just 10-7 behind him. The Braves have gone 11-4-2 to the 'under' in their last 17 home games. Arizona has gone 35-17-1 to the 'under' in its last 53 road games.

NY Yankees (45-41) at Boston (50-39)

Scheduled Rotation: TBA vs. Pomeranz (9-4), TBA vs. Sale (11-4), TBA vs. Porcello (4-11), DH #2 TBA vs. Price (4-2)
Series Price: TBA

The Yankees stayed on top of the American League East for 51 days, but a seven-game losing streak in June helped contribute to their slide. At the same time, Boston has put it all together and now lead the Yankees by 3.5 games in the division. The Yankees are currently 20/1 to win the World Series, but they're not playing like a 20/1 squad lately. They're batting only .221 in their last 10 games and have gone 3-10 in their last 13 road games. They've had trouble with lefties all season, batting just .229 and they'll get three right out the gate with Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale and David Price this weekend. The Yankees have won seven of the past eight meetings, but Boston is on a 13-5 run at home. Look for Boston to take this series and the Yankees to make a couple moves for pitching to stay in the AL Wild Card race.

Minnesota (45-43) at Houston (60-29)

Scheduled Rotation: Berrios (8-2) vs. Morton, Santana (10-6) vs. Musgrove (4-7), Gibson (5-7) vs. Fiers (5-4)
Series Price: TBA

Houston has been the best bet all season at +20.9 units, but Minnesota has been profitable as well at +5.2 units. The Astros have an MLB-leading .285 batting average and while going 8-3 in their last 11 they're batting .329. This team is actually getting better and they've been doing without ace pitcher Dallas Keuchel (neck), and he's scheduled to be back within two weeks. They're a short 9/2 price to win the World Series for a good reason. Amazingly, the Twins are still looking at postseason play being only one game out of the final wild card spot. They've stayed alive by going an impressive 25-15 on the road. The hot trend coming in to this series is the totals going 'over.' Houston has gone 12-3-1 to the 'over' in their last 16 games and the 'over' is 8-1-2 on their last 11 meetings with Minnesota. Houston pounded the Twins in a three-game sweep at Target Field in May where the combined score was 40-16.

Texas (43-45) at Kansas City (44-43)

Scheduled Rotation: Perez (4-6) vs. Hammel (4-8 ), Hamels (4-0) vs. Vargas (12-3), Darvish (6-8 ) vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

The Royals find themselves only three games out of first in the mediocre American League Central, which is a huge accomplishment considering they started April with a 7-16 record and that included a nine-game losing streak. They got right back into the mix of things by going 17-9 in June aided by their bats finally waking up. Ian Kennedy has also been a big reason for the KC upswing with them winning five of his past six starts after losing eight of his first 10. Texas is only three games out of the Wild Card, but the standings would look a lot different if they could win some one-run games -- they're 6-14. The Rangers have won 13 of the past 16 meetings and the 'under' has gone 31-15-5 in the past 51 meetings.

Chicago Cubs (43-45) at Baltimore (42-46)

Scheduled Rotation: Montgomery (1-6) vs. Gausman (5-7), TBA vs. Miley (4-7), TBA vs. TBA
Series Price: TBA

Prior to the start of the season, the Cubs were 3/1 favorites to repeat as World Series champions, but now with a losing record at the break you can get 12/1 odds if you think they take control in the second half. The Orioles have made the playoffs three of the past five seasons and opened the season with plenty of respect at 20/1 to win the World Series, but now they're 200/1 as they sit in fourth-place. The bad news for Baltimore is when they hit the road where they're 17-30. However, they're pretty good at home at 25-16. The Cubs are 19-25 on the road this season, but the good news for Cubs fans is that no one has really taken control of the NL Central even though the Brewers closed out the first-half on a 9-2 run. This is a good test for both teams to maybe find their true identity and the Cubs rotation just got better by trading for Jose Quintana. Something to keep note of is that the Cubs have stayed 'under' in 21 of their last 28 road games while Baltimore has gone 9-4 to the 'under' in its last 13.

Twins, Astros meet in Houston
By: SStatFox.com

Two of the more surprising teams in the league meet when the Astros host the Twins on Friday.

Both the Twins and the Astros have exceeded expectations thus far, as Minnesota is currently in the hunt in the AL Central and Houston has the second-best record in Major League Baseball. Nobody expected the Twins to be over .500 at this point, so it’s shocking to see them playing so well. The Astros, meanwhile, were supposed to be good, but not many people expected them to be what they are right now. Well, now expectations are a bit higher for these teams in the second half of the year. The first start of the second half of the season for these teams will go to RHP Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.53 ERA, 69 K) for the Twins and RHP Charlie Morton (6-3, 3.82 ERA, 68 K) for the Astros. The Twins will be comfortable playing in Houston on Friday, as they are 25-15 when playing on the road this season. The Astros, however, are 27-18 when playing in Houston, so it’s not like they’ll be uncomfortable.

The Twins are hoping to start the second half of the year off with a win and they definitely have the right guy on the mound here. After really struggling in his time with Minnesota last season, Jose Berrios has taken the league by storm in 2017. Heading into the break, the righty had allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his past seven starts. He’s hoping that he can regain his form rather fast, but this is a tough matchup for him. Berrios allowed four earned runs in only five inning of work in a start against the Astros on May 30, and he needs to be better than that here. Offensively, the Twins are hoping that both 3B Miguel Sano (.276 BA, 21 HR, 62 RBI) and 2B Brian Dozier (.242 BA, 13 HR, 41 RBI) can storm out the gates on Friday. Sano was a monster in the first half of the year, and it’d be big if he can perform like that the rest of the way. Dozier, meanwhile, needs to be a lot better moving forward. He was one of the better power hitters in the league last season, but he has not flashed that ability in 2017.

If the Astros are going to repeat their tremendous start to the year then Charlie Morton must get his team off and running with a solid performance on Friday. Morton’s two starts before heading into the break were superb, as he let up only two earned runs in 13 innings of work. It is, however, hard to regroup after some time away from the team and it’s possible he struggles a bit here. Regardless, the Astros have the bats to make up for whatever type of outing they get from Morton. In 2B Jose Altuve (.347 BA, 13 HR, 50 RBI), SS Carlos Correa (.325 BA, 20 HR, 65 RBI) and OF George Springer (.310 BA, 27 HR, 61 RBI), the Astros have three of the starters for the AL All-Star team. All of them are capable of changing this game with one swing of the bat. They’re not the only ones either, as this lineup just might be the most dangerous in baseball.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-115); Total: 8

Gerrit Cole has been the subject of a lot of trade speculation as the Pirates look to fall short of the playoffs this year. The market is coming in on St. Louis and right-hander Mike Leake for this NL Central division series opener at PNC Park. Right off the bat, it is interesting to see the Cardinals getting some love here because Leake has a 3.12 ERA with a 3.96 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP. Usually when we see ERAs like this, though, we’re talking about an unsustainable LOB%, or an elite pitcher. Leake’s LOB% is 74.9 percent, so there’s no reason that can’t be sustainable. He’s limited home runs for the most part and induces a lot of ground balls. He doesn’t issue many walks, which is a decent trade-off for a lack of strikeouts.

To me, Leake does look like a guy that could have a sustainable profile. He’s carried a lot of low BABIPs in his career and his .272 mark in 2017 isn’t terribly far off from his .291 career mark. This is also a good park to pitch in coming out of the All-Star Break. PNC Park is very forgiving, so any command mistake might stay in the park more often here than in other places.

Cole has a 4.43 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP on the year. Cole came into this season with just 36 home runs allowed in 579.1 innings of work, but he has allowed 19 in 107.2 innings this season. After missing nearly half of last year with some injuries, it has been good to see Cole’s velocity back up, but the lack of command is a major concern. The silver lining for this start is that 12 of the 19 homers Cole has allowed have come on the road. His SLG% against is 63 points higher away from PNC Park.

Certainly a lean to the Cardinals looks reasonable with how Leake has pitched and with Cole’s inconsistencies. The Cardinals and Pirates have both been disappointments offensively for the better part of the season and both bullpens have had their problems as well. There are probably better games on the board, but catching the Cards at plus money is a decent look.

Chicago at Baltimore (-105); Total: 10

One person that did not want the All-Star Break is Kevin Gausman. He’ll start the second half for the host Orioles today against left-hander Mike Montgomery for the Cubs. The Cubs made a huge splash on Thursday acquiring Jose Quintana for a haul of prospects, but Montgomery will still get this start. We’ll see what happens with the rotation after this point.

Montgomery has a 3.75/3.91/4.31 slash line in 19 relief outings and six starts covering 69.2 innings of work. As a starter, Montgomery has a 5.40 ERA with a 3.75 FIP and a 3.70 xFIP. He allowed seven runs on six hits in 2.1 innings in his final start of the first half against Milwaukee. Prior to that, he had allowed 11 earned runs across 27.2 innings of work as a starter. Montgomery doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but does induce a lot of ground balls and has only allowed four HR this season. That seems like a bad matchup for the Orioles, who live off of their power.

Gausman enters the second half with a 5.85 ERA, a 4.73 FIP, and a 4.90 xFIP. In 97 innings, the right-hander has allowed 14 HR and a .371 BABIP against, so command has been a huge problem. Adding to Gausman’s command struggles is the fact that he has walked 43 on the season after walking 47 in 179.2 innings last season. The Cubs are a rarity in that they have decent hitters to plug into that DH spot for interleague games, which will make Gausman’s job even tougher.

Before getting knocked around by Minnesota on July 7, Gausman had shown some signs of improvement with 12.1 shutout innings across starts against the Rays and Blue Jays. He struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter in that start against Minnesota across four innings, so the BABIP gods weren’t on his side, but the stuff was decent.

Still, I’m not ready to trust Gausman. A few days off should have helped the Cubs reset and Thursday’s big trade to acquire one of the top three controlled starters on the market might inject a little bit of life into the ballclub after a World Series hangover of a first half. Give me the Cubs today.

Colorado at New York (-140); Total: 8

Jon Gray and Jacob deGrom get together for what is the best pitching matchup on the board today. The Rockies were one of the biggest surprises of the first half and did most of it without the services of their best starting pitcher. Gray was limited to 24 innings in the first half of the year. He worked to a 3.75/3.36/3.61 pitcher slash in those five starts with 24 strikeouts and nine walks. The Rockies basically tumbled down the Rocky Mountain equivalent of a slump at the end of the first half. On June 20, Colorado moved to 47-24. They lost eight straight and then wound up 52-39 at the Break. In other words, the Break couldn’t have come at a better time.

Though the Rockies are a long way from home as they open the second half, this isn’t a bad matchup against a Mets team that has been a mess all season long. Gray can be a tone-setter coming out of the time off. On the other hand, the Rockies are now just 26-21 with a 1-8 record in their last nine road games. Regression on the road was certainly coming for this team, especially because the offense has been really subpar this season when adjusted for Coors Field and the road parks.

Jacob deGrom’s first half finished up with a 3.65 ERA, a 3.97 FIP, and a 3.34 xFIP. He has 130 strikeouts in 111 innings of work. He allowed four solo dingers in his last start across seven innings, but had allowed just four runs over his previous 32 innings. deGrom is a tough assignment right out of the second-half chute for the Rockies. He’s only going on six days rest, so rust shouldn’t be a huge factor. That’s something that we do have to look at for pitchers, especially those that won’t start until Monday or Tuesday. In this case, it isn’t a big deal for JDG.

I’d probably take a look at the under in this game with two really talented starters against some hitters that have been away from the game for a while.

Washington (-135) at Cincinnati; Total: 10

Those that listened to The Bettor’s Box know where I’m likely to go with this game. Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for the Nationals against Tim Adleman for the Reds. We’ve seen some money trickle in on the Nationals, which is very surprising. As we open the second half, Gonzalez is one of the headliners on my Pitchers to Fade list. The savvy southpaw has a 2.86 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He’s got an 85 percent LOB% and a .259 BABIP against. His career averages in those two stats are 73.6 percent and .295. He’s also seen a spike in walks this season.

Gonzalez is the type of guy that I’d probably peg for swift regression, like a stretch of two starts with seven or eight runs allowed rather than a prolonged stretch with four or five runs allowed over four or five starts. He also has his highest HR/FB% since 2009, so there are a lot of red flags in this profile. I’ll be looking to fade him a lot in the early going and I certainly don’t mind fading him in a good hitter’s park against a talented Cincinnati lineup.

Obviously the worry here is buying stock in Tim Adleman and the Reds bullpen. Adleman has a 4.71 ERA with a 5.61 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. He’s worked 84 innings this season and the long ball has been his biggest problem with 19 of those allowed. He’s got a decent strikeout rate. His walk rate could use some work, but he’s an extreme fly ball guy in a pretty unfortunate park to be one of those.

Nevertheless, I’ll gamble on the Reds here in this one and play on those Gonzalez regression angles. The Reds team total over also isn’t a bad play.

Los Angeles (-120) at Miami; Total: 8.5

The Dodgers and Marlins get together tonight at Marlins Park as regular season baseball returns to South Beach. After the All-Star Game festivities with an impressive display of power on Monday and a pitcher performance for the ages on Tuesday, we’re back to normal with Brandon McCarthy and Dan Straily set to take the mound. I’ve talked about McCarthy a lot this season as a guy that has been extremely valuable for the Dodgers. McCarthy has a 3.12 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 4.34 xFIP. He’s gotten back to inducing ground balls to counteract the launch angle craze in MLB and has had a ton of success with it across 78 innings. What was interesting about his fly ball days is that he enjoyed some strikeout success as well. The strikeout rate has plummeted, but he’s been extremely effective at inducing weak contact. He’s one of my favorite pitchers in baseball because of how in tune he is with sabermetric concepts and how he’s made adjustments throughout his career.

I’m worried about Dan Straily. I talked about these concerns before his last start, but Straily went out and held the Giants to one run on four hits in his last outing before the Break. Straily hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start since his first start of the season on April 5. The concern I have with Straily is that his strikeout rate is falling like a rock. Since he struck out 10 on May 31, Straily has just 33 strikeouts in 42.2 innings of work. Fortunately, he’s only walked four, so he has been able to counterbalance that lack of strikeouts. He’s living on a .246 BABIP right now and an 86.5 percent LOB%. Perhaps the biggest problem I see is that Straily’s GB% is 40.7 percent in that span of seven starts. More ground balls means more hits. Fewer strikeouts with more hits means more runs.

Perhaps Straily just needed the Break. Maybe he got tired. The improved control was a lifesaver late in the first half, but the sustainability of his BABIP and his LOB% are a serious question mark for me. He did get back to inducing fly balls in his last two starts, so maybe he made a mechanical correction.

The overall point here is that I cannot trust Straily until I see something that makes me believe his BABIP and LOB% are more sustainable. More fly balls and more strikeouts would help. If I had to fire on this game, it would be the Dodgers. Instead, I’ll likely pass and look for more information to come out after this one.

Toronto at Detroit (-120); Total: 9

We’ve got a lot of reasonable lines as we come out of the All-Star Break, so we’ve got a lot of games to break down today. This one features two teams that are nowhere near where they want to be at this point in the season. For Toronto, injuries and bad luck are to blame. For Detroit, this is just a subpar ballclub. Aaron Sanchez and Justin Verlander will get the ball rolling for the second half.

Sanchez kind of epitomizes the whole first half for the Blue Jays. A bad luck injury, a blister, limited him to 26 innings of work across just six starts. Fellow rotation member Marcus Stroman dealt with a blister late in the first half as well, so this seems to be bordering on an epidemic for the Blue Jays. With the inconsistent workload and the blister, Sanchez posted a 4.85 ERA with a 6.38 FIP and a 5.44 xFIP in his six starts. This is after he posted a 3.00/3.55/3.75 in a 3.9-win season per Fangraphs’s WAR calculations last year. Factor in injuries to Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki, as well as Roberto Osuna’s battle with anxiety, and you’ve got a perfect storm of problems.

The Jays can wipe the slate clean. Hopefully Sanchez is healthy enough to do the same because he does have some terrific stuff. Sanchez hasn’t had much arm-side command this season, as righties are batting .313/.370/.582 in a small sample size of 73 plate appearances. Last season, righties only hit .230/.273/.318. That’s the big key for Sanchez. Lefties generally do damage against righties. It happens. But, you have to dominate righties to have success. Sanchez did that last season. He hasn’t been able to this season. If he can do that today, he’ll have tremendous success against the right-handed-heavy Tigers.

Justin Verlander has been the subject of some trade talks, but it seems unlikely that a team will bite on the guaranteed money left on his deal. It doesn’t help that Verlander has taken some steps back this season. After getting snubbed for the Cy Young Award last year, Verlander has followed it up with a 4.73 ERA, a 4.28 FIP, and a 5.03 xFIP. His strikeout rate is down quite a bit. He’s walked 51 in 104.2 innings after walking 57 in 227.2 innings last season. His BABIP against has gone from .255 to .316 as hitters like the ball up more this season.

The Blue Jays are a team I want to back coming out of the All-Star Break. They enter the second half with a .242 BABIP with runners in scoring position. No team was under .262 in that category last season, so Toronto is a massive outlier and should see some positive regression. We’ll see if they can improve upon that mark against Verlander and they would be my lean tonight.

Arizona (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5

As we head into the second half, the Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the top teams on my fade list. Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been much better than anyone could have expected and their BABIP with runners in scoring position ranks third in baseball at .331. A reversal of fortunes should be coming in that department. When it does, this is an average rotation with an average bullpen, so the Diamondbacks could very well be more like a .500 team the rest of the way.

Taijuan Walker takes the mound today against RA Dickey as the Braves get their second half underway. Walker has been a good addition to the Snakes’ rotation with a 3.65/3.86/4.47 pitcher slash across 81.1 innings of work. One thing that will keep me off of Atlanta today, despite my desire to fade Arizona, is that Walker has been much better away from Chase Field. Small sample sizes are obviously in play here, but Walker has allowed a .246/.321/.432 slash at home and a .241/.329/.366 on the road. Chase Field is a tough place to pitch. It’s hard to get the proper grip on the ball, hence the humidor that has been installed and will be in use next season. Walker makes this start at SunTrust Park.

Another thing keeping me off of Arizona is that they get a knuckleballer to open the second half. I have no idea how that dynamic is going to play out. Dickey has a 4.23 ERA with a 5.07 FIP and a 5.10 xFIP on the season, so it’s not like he has been effective, but the knuckleball is a great unknown more often than not.

I’ll stay away here, but will look for opportunities to fade Arizona.

Cleveland (-140) at Oakland; Total: 8

We’re seeing money come in on Sonny Gray as the Athletics host the Indians to kick off the second half. The Tribe will counter with right-hander Carlos Carrasco. Gray takes the mound as the subject of a lot of trade speculation in the market. The Indians take the field severely shorthanded due to injuries. This should be an interesting series with the Tribe so far from home and with everything going on with these two teams.

Make no mistake, Carlos Carrasco is a very good pitcher, bordering on elite. Injuries and bad luck seem to pop up for him, so he’s never worked a 200-inning season, but he has a 3.44/3.41/3.40 slash with more than a strikeout per inning yet again this season. He has 114 strikeouts in 104.2 innings of work. It has been overshadowed by the absolute dominance that Corey Kluber has exhibited, but Carrasco has hit a little bit of a groove. He gave up eight runs in 3.1 innings against Texas on June 26 in what obviously stands out as a bad start, but he did strike out seven. He has 42 strikeouts over his last five starts covering 29.2 innings of work.

Sonny Gray has also turned in a fine season. Getting away from Oakland would be really beneficial for him because the A’s are by far the worst defensive team in baseball. As a result, Gray has a 63.7 percent LOB%, so his 3.58 FIP and 3.41 xFIP are accompanied by a 4.00 ERA. Gray has 74 strikeouts in 78.2 innings of work and a 55.3 percent GB%. Oakland should capitalize on his years of control and trade him before the deadline, so every start could be Gray’s last in the green and yellow.

The Indians will be without Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall for a few weeks as both guys deal with injuries. The loss of Kipnis isn’t a big deal given his performance, but the loss of Chisenhall is. The Indians do need to be adjusted a little bit against RHP with his absence. Bradley Zimmer will likely bat leadoff and he has not put up good numbers over the last few weeks. Perhaps Carlos Santana goes back up there. We’ll have to see. Either way, the Indians offense has been wildly inconsistent anyway and now faces some more adversity.

I’ll be looking at the under here. It’s a late start for the Tribe with the cross-country flight and these are two premier arms. Both teams also have good bullpens. Keep in mind that managers will be trying to work as many relievers in as possible over the next few days to get them some work. Fortunately, the Indians have a deep and talented bullpen. The A’s have a good amount of upside out there.

San Francisco (-115) at San Diego; Total: 8

We saw money come in on the Padres a lot as the first half came to a close. It’s happening again today with Clayton Richard against Johnny Cueto. Madison Bumgarner will return tomorrow for the Giants, but Cueto is the guy that they need to get right. Cueto is expected to opt out of his contract at season’s end, so the Giants may try to find a trade partner for him. The problem with that is that Cueto has struggled.

The normally reliable right-hander has a 4.51 ERA with a 4.73 FIP and a 4.41 xFIP. His strikeout rate is down a touch, but his walk rate is way up and his home run rate has nearly doubled per HR/FB%. The scariest part about that is that Cueto’s GB% has gone from 50.2 percent to 39.6 percent. His HR/9 has gone from 0.61 to 1.53. Cueto allowed 29 HR in his rookie season in 2008. He’s on pace to tie that this season. Cueto hasn’t allowed more than 22 HR since 2009, a streak which will likely be broken. How much will the All-Star Break have helped?

Clayton Richard will have a new zip code by the end of this month. The left-hander has a 4.66 ERA with a 4.42 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP on the season. Teams will buy into his 57.3 percent GB% and decent K/BB peripherals across 110 innings of work. A better defensive team and Richard’s numbers would look a bit better. He has a .338 BABIP against. A higher BABIP is to be expected with a high GB%, but not to that extent. Per Statcast data, Richard’s xBA (expected batting average) is .272, but his actual batting average against is .307. That 0.35-point difference ranks 15th out of 139 pitchers with at least 1,000 pitches thrown this season.

Still, I like the way that the Giants rallied before the Break. They went on the road and won a few games. They limped into that final weekend, but that’s to be expected with a team accustomed to winning. Cueto should get better. Richard is what he is and the profile probably won’t get much better with San Diego’s defense. I’d have a slight lean to the Giants tonight, but laying road prices with them is still a worry.

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Seattle Mariners -162

The Mariners and the White Sox are going to be playing in Chicago in their first game after the all-star break. The White Sox are playing their first game since trading away arguably the last remnant of their team from the last five years in Jose Quintana. It’s still unclear what the Mariners are going to do from here, but I don’t imagine that Jerry Dipoto has much interest in trying to rebuild after all of the trades he made in the offseason to try to improve.

Starting for the Mariners is one of my favorite pitchers in the MLB in James Paxton. Paxton still isn’t a very well-known name in most circles, but he has been one of the best major league pitchers for nearly a year now. So far this year he has an ERA of 3.21, with a slightly worse xFIP of 3.61. The xFIP difference isn’t that surprising though considering that Seattle’s home park has a lower than league average homerun to flyball rate. What’s important to note is just how good Paxton has been at striking batters out, with over 10 strikeouts per nine innings. While his walk rate hasn’t been terrific, he is facing a young team who has not shown much ability to take walks. Ultimately, I like this game almost exclusively because I love Paxton, which isn’t always the best reason to bet on a team. But in this case, I’m fine with it, because I also think the White Sox are much worse than most people realize.

MLB Underdog of the day: St. Louis Cardinals +106

The Pirates and Cardinals are going to be playing at PNC park tonight, with Gerrit Cole and Mike Leake pitching for the Pirates and Cardinals respectively. It’s tough to see how these teams are going to move around at the trade deadline, but given the limited amounts of teams looking to buy, I think that they are generally going to be staying still.

One of the biggest names that has been mentioned on occasion on the trade market has been Gerrit Cole. I would be very surprised to see him moved given the amount of team control that he has left with the Pirates. Ultimately though, I think that he will be gone from the Pirates sooner than many may realize. So far this season, Cole has begun to turn some of his potential that everyone has always recognized into pretty good results. A lot of his value is still in the amount of potential that he has, but even if this is his peak form, he is an above average major league starter. His ERA is not great, at 4.43, but his xFIP is quite a bit better at 3.98. This still isn’t great, and I have some concerns that his potential will ever quite get tapped into. Traditionally, the Pirates have been known to get movement onto their pitcher’s fastballs. Charlie Morton for example went from being a heavy 4-seam thrower to a sinker ball pitcher, which he rarely used prior to going to Pittsburgh. They have been credited with starting the reemergence of the 2-seam fastball, which turned Francisco Liriano into an all-star pitcher in his time with the Pirates. Right now though, Cole is still heavily reliant on his 4-seam fastball. That’s fine for some pitchers, but Cole only has one reliable secondary pitch, his slider. While he has started to incorporate a cutter a little bit more, I’m not convinced that it’s different enough from his slider to become a much better pitcher. I like the Cardinals in this game against a pitcher who I tend to think might be a bit overrated. I don’t have any totals picks for today, so these are going to be my only two picks for today.

Dave's MLB Friday
By Dave Essler

Starting the second half is not unlike starting the season. Bullpens are rested, some teams have enthusiasm for the time being, and soon the buyers and sellers will shake out. The point is - it's the same but different and we'll approach it the same as we would April.

Cubs/Orioles: It's always hard for me to trust Gausman regardless of the venue. Unless Baltimore gets out of the gate really fast, they may be sellers. They're only 7 out in the loss column but there are too many teams between them and Boston, and I think even they recognize they just don't have the starting pitching. That could bod well for taking the Cubs here, given that they're getting a DH to boot. Montgomery's upside is far higher than Gausman's, and given the lack of familiarity here and the shape of both pens heading into the break, it'd be easy to think over is the play, but I think not.

Cardinals/Pirates: St. Louis has to be grateful to be in the NL Central, under .500 and only four games out in the loss column - as are the aforementioned Cubs. Once could assume that both the Cards and Cubs make runs, but assuming is not a good way to win bets. Cole has let me down more than once this season, as opposed to being an auto-bet at home last season. Leake always scares me simply because unless he can't pee clean I have to wonder how he's doing what he's doing this season. Although, he's seemingly regressed lately. As much as this could be a pitchers' duel and may be billed that way, I am inclined to think these guys score some runs. On the flip side, both pens were spectacular going into the break. I'd have to think the Cardinals have more motivation, but just don't trust Leake. F5 over, perhaps.

Toronto/Detroit: One has to assume that Verlander is all but done and that the Tigers, being only one game out of last place, will be selling soon. That leaves us with Aaron Sanchez, who was simply crushed in his first start back from the DL against Houston. I'd like to think it was in part because it was Houston, but he walked four batters in less than two innings. He's fared well against Detroit's sticks, albeit in limited exposure. The Jays' pen heading into the break wasn't very good at all, which is troubling, but we could chalk some of that up to playing four games against Houston and three at the Yankees. It'd have to be Toronto or nothing here.

Rockies/Mets: An interesting matchup of two teams that are heading in opposite directions, both in what was probably an unexpected situation before the season started. Not many were picking the Rockies to be a playoff contender, and few were predicting the Mets to be in fourth place in the NL East. The Mets could clearly be selling, and they've got one way and one way only to win this game, and that's of course another DeGrom gem. Obviously that's not out of the question, but the Mets' offense is perhaps predicated somewhat on the will to win these days. Their bullpen has been deplorable and they lost five of six prior to the break. I just wonder how they "pick it up." Gray can strike people out and the Colorado pen is better on the road, although far from bad at home, and they ARE above .500 on the road. The Mets could be a public disaster play. We'll see.

Dodgers/Marlins: My first instinct here is/was to take Straily at home, almost against anyone right now. Miami won five off six at San Francisco and at St. Louis before the break, so the question is simply going to be can they keep winning or did the work stoppage slow them down. On the other side, the break could potentially have hurt the Dodgers, as they'd won 17 of 20 and have nowhere to go but down. For that reason alone they are, if nothing else, over valued. By the same token it's hard to bet against McCarthy, so one could reasonably conclude that there might not be many runs here, so yes, I like the under. If it is in fact lower scoring AND Los Doyas are over priced, I could make a case for the Fish RL as well.

DBacks/Braves: I think everyone's first instinct is to fade Dickey and/or take the over. He is, if nothing else, a feast or famine pitcher. He held the Nationals to three hits in Washington, only allowed one run to the A's, one to the Brewers, and none to the Giants - all in his last four starts. So, assuming he's the batting practice pitcher might get you in trouble. The D-backs haven't seen much of him, so predicting which R.A. we get isn't going to be easy. I do know that it will be very difficult to take Walker, given that the majority of his starts aren't overly deep, and that leaves the Arizona bullpen, which has regressed to where most thought it would be in the early stages of the season. The Atlanta pen is in really tough shape, so with the whole Freeman-being-back thing I expect Atlanta to at least play hard, and think this one could have "over" written on it.

Phillies/Brewers: I am all about trying to find some value in the underdog, but it might be hard given that the Phillies are 29-58 and just lost five of seven at home to the Padres and Pirates, neither of whom are all that good. Clearly the Brewers are going to be buyers, as they've already proven by picking up Vogt for an extra stick. When they're healthy they're as potent offensively as anyone, and although Braun is questionable, it's tough to find any extended period of time where he, Shaw, Thames, and Villar were all on the field at the same time. Pivetta does have the occasional great game, but on the road he's been terrible so although the Phillies could win, it won't be with my money. I don't like Davies enough to lay the chalk, but could make a reasonable case for the F5 over simply because both pens have been above average.

Minnesota/Houston: Even with Berrios pitching it's really tough to step in front of the Astros train. The case for taking the Twins in any form isn't a hard one to get to, since they're in contention in the AL Central and they're a GREAT road team. In my opinion Berrios does give them their best chance to win, but his last two road starts at Kansas City and at Boston did not go well. Perhaps as teams get a better look and more scouting on him they're finding it easier to hit him, which of course stands to reason. Morton at home is a far better bet than Morton on the road, but he's still capable of giving up runs, but for a guy to go from where he was in the early 2010's to someone that's struck out more men than innings pitched, betting against him is a tough sell. Add to that the fact that he's always been great at keeping the ball in the park, and I could use the Astros and maybe the over, which is clearly going to be an inflated number for a variety of reasons.

Indians/A's: As is always the case I'd try to build one (a case) for the home team and/or the underdog, and obviously the A's are both. Although the Indians have under performed this season (they had nowhere else to go) they're a great road team, and since the beginning of May the Tribe have won all but one of Carrasco's starts. The oddity is that although his W/L record is great, on the road his peripherals are just not overwhelming. Combine that with a bullpen that suffered going into the break and the Indians are not an auto-bet here (IMO). Grays' last three starts have been much more like the old Sonny Gray, and the only team to really hurt him was, of course, Houston. With that in mind and given that this is a big, big, park, I could make the argument that the first five innings will be low scoring, although the A's have been a good "over" team this year. That's primarily because their pitching and defense is near the bottom of the barrel, but, give me Sonny Gray to keep it competitive for five innings.

Giants/Padres: It's always tough for me to take a .347 winning percentage team, which is exactly what San Francisco is on the road. They're clearly done for the season and could well be selling before the next few weeks are over. Volquez himself is a microcosm of the team in that his season mirrors the teams - they're 2-5 in his road starts and he sits on a 1.60 WHIP on the road. As good as he can be, that's more than enough to keep me off the Giants. San Diego is a .500 team at home, and Richard has at the very least been serviceable except for his one start against the Dodgers. He's already faced San Francisco twice, so we might see some runs here.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, 8.5)

Both the Cardinals and Pirates have been inconsistent and have frankly underachieved in the first half of the 2017 season. St. Louis opens the second half third in the division at 43-45, while the Pirates are in fourth at 42-47.

Game 1 of this three-game weekend set features an intriguing pitching matchup as Mike Leake gets the call for the Cardinals, while the Pirates will counter with Gerrit Cole and just like the teams they represent, both have been inconsistent.

Leake has started the season hot, throwing nine consecutive quality starts, then went through a four start stretch where he didn’t have one, but closed the first half with quality starts in three of his last four outings.

Leake is 6-7 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP in 17 starts this season and the numbers get better on the road, where he is 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.942 WHIP in seven starts. The right-hander faces a Pittsburgh lineup that has struggled this season. The Buccos rank 24th in runs, 26th in average and OPS and 29th in home runs.

Cole on the other hand has been even more inconsistent. It’s also been the worst year of his career, as he has posted a 7-7 record with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

His last five starts have been better, where he is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA. One of those five includes a win over the Cardinals in St. Louis where he scattered five hits over six innings, giving up just one earned run.

Want some more tidbits? The Under is 5-0 in Leake’s last five road starts and 7-1 in the Pirates’ last eight home games.

Pick: Under 8.5

Cleveland Indians at Oakland A’s (+120, 8 )

It’s a battle of first and last place teams as the AL Central leading Indians begin the second half of the season in Oakland to take on the AL West basement dwelling A’s.

After a slow start to the season, Cleveland was able to overtake the Twins for first in the division, while the A’s once again look to be just showing off their tradable assets before the July 31st trade deadline.

One of those assets is starter Sonny Gray, who will be taking the mound Friday night. Gray seems to be aware of his status with the team as picked up his play over the past three starts going 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA.

However, Gray hasn’t performed well in night games this, going 1-4 with a 5.49 ERA. Plus the Indians have crushed Gray in his last two starts against them, allowing 14 earned runs over just eight innings.

What has also picked up for the Indians has been their bats. They now rank 10th in runs, ninth in average and sixth in OPS.

To make things tougher for the A’s, they have to go up against Cleveland’s best starter this season, as Carlos Carrasco will be on the bump.

Carrasco is 10-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.080 WHIP, but he has been plain dominant on the road, where the right-hander is 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.935 WHIP, while racking up 60 strikeouts and just 13 walks.

Pick: Indians -147

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 86-76-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays (4 -0, 2.11 ERA, $452)

There’s something about the Tampa Bay Rays, they just churn out young arms. The 2017 version is Jacob Faria and in his first six career starts he’s dealing.

Faria is 4-0 (5-1 TW/TL) with a 2.11 ERA, a .97 WHIP and has earned a quality appearance every time he has stepped on the rubber. Pretty impressive start to big league career for the 24-year-old.

The Rays are in Los Angeles tonight where Mike Trout makes his return to the Angles lineup and are available at +101.

Slumping: Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants (6-7, 4.51 ERA, $-89)

Reports surfaced last month that Johnny Cueto was going to opt out the remaining four years and $84 million left on his contract at the end of the season. The right hander might want to re-think that plan if his last two starts are any indication.

In his last two starts, Cueto has an ERA of 7.36, a WHIP of 2.09, only five strikeouts to go a long with 10 walks. The schedule gods are smiling on the Giants starter as he gets the start against the Padres and their feeble lineup.

Cueto and the Giants are -107 road chalk in San Diego tonight.

Friday's Top Trends:

* Red Sox are 6-0 in Drew Pomeranz’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. -119 vs. Yankees.

* Under is 10-1-1 in Reds last 12 overall. WAS @ CIN today’s total: 10.

* Rangers are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings with Royals. +104 @ KC

* Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. COL @ NYM today’s total: 7.5.

* Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 games following an off day. +152 @ Brewers.

Weather To Keep An Eye On:

There is a 45-55 percent chance of thunderstorms at first pitch today at Camden Yards where the Chicago Cubs are in town to play the Baltimore Orioles, and that same scenario is forecasted at Citi Field where the Mets are hosting the Colorado Rockies.

The most notable wind tonight will be a hitter’s wind of 11-14 miles per hour blowing out to right field at Oakland Coliseum. The A’s are hosting the Cleveland Indians and the total is currently sitting at 8.

Friday MLB Betting Preview
Vegasinsider.com

Washington vs. Cincinnati

Odds: Washington (-140), Cincinnati (+120); Total 10

Now that the All-Star break has come and gone, we are back to full days of regular season MLB action with the playoff push now just around the corner.

That means that the trading deadline (although it doesn't mean a whole lot in MLB) is also just around the corner and that gives teams two or three weeks here to either make their push to become contenders, fall by the wayside and decide what assets to sell off, or explore any and all avenues to improve glaring weaknesses that will presumably prevent their very good team from going all the way.

The Washington Nationals definitely fall into that latter category with bullpen help desperately needed, and tonight they'll look to get the second half started with a W.

While it's clear that Washington and Cincinnati will be going in opposite directions in the coming weeks in terms of buying or selling off assets, tonight's a game where we should see both sides do the same thing: score plenty of runs.

Washington definitely needed the All-Star break when it came as they were becoming a little inconsistent. Over their past 10 games they've scored 2 or fewer runs four times, while also scoring 7+ in three games. This is not a team that built a 9-game lead in the NL East by producing at such an inconsistent rate as they did down the stretch of the first half, a trend punctuated by a 13-0 loss followed by a 10-5 win over their last two games.

They didn't faced tonight's starter for the Reds, Tim Adleman the first time these two met, but Washington tagged the Reds for 26 runs over those three games in going 2-1 SU. The Nationals are a team that averages 5.52 runs per outing this year (5.64 vs. Righties), and Adleman is a guy that's been giving up runs all season long. Opponents have scored 5.3/game in his 15 starts this year and his numbers have actually gotten a bit worse over his last few starts. It's been four starts in a row for Adleman that opponents have scored 6+, and you know a well-rested Nationals team would love to keep that trend going tonight.

At 39-49 SU, the Reds know they'll be sellers at the deadline in some capacity, but prior to the break they did start to show signs of professional pride and team chemistry in going 4-3 SU on a very tough road trip in Colorado and Arizona. They've scored 5 or more runs themselves in five of their last 10 games, and while bettors look at their 0-9-1 O/U run during that stretch and see another high total tonight, they shouldn't be afraid to see that run flip very soon.

Cincinnati is 12-5 O/U in their last 17 at home vs a winning team, and have a 7-2-2 O/U record at home after being on the road for at least a week. With Adleman on the hill against a winning team, Cincinnati is 7-3 O/U in their last 10 tries, and Cincinnati knows that to have a shot at a win tonight (and in the rest of this series) they are going to have to put up plenty of runs.

Numerous Reds have very good numbers against Gio Gonzalez in their careers (Votto has 3 HR's and 8 hits in 18 at-bats), and there is little reason to think that the Reds won't carry their own weight in cashing this 'over' wager.

Finally, we can't forget about the fact that when Washington is lined in the -100 to -150 range on the side this year, they are 22-9 O/U this year with an average score of 11.5 runs per game. Add in a 9-3 O/U run in Gonzalez's last 12 starts away from home, and a 9-3-1 O/U run on the road against a losing team, and we should have no problem getting to double digits this evening.

Best Bet: Over 10