National League
Phillies @ Pirates
Eflin is 2-1, 2.14 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
Cole is 0-2, 5.21 in his last four starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Pirates are 2-4 when Cole starts at home.
Phillies lost four of last five games; they're 5-10 in road series openers. Over is 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Pittsburgh won three of last four games; five of their last six stayed under the totala. Bucs are 9-5 in home series openers. Teams have not met this season.
Padres @ Nationals
Perdomo is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts (over 6-2).
Roark is 3-0, 1.86 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under. Washington is 6-4 in his home starts.
Padres lost their last seven road games; they're 10-5 in road series openers. Four of their last six games went over. Washington won five of last seven games, but lost last two; they're 10-4 in home series openers. Six of Nationals' last seven games stayed under the total. Teams split four games so far this year.
Diamondbacks @ Reds
Bradley is 0-2, 3.72 in his last five starts (over 8-4). Arizona is 4-2 in his road starts.
Straily is 1-1, 2.70 in his last three starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Reds are 6-3 when he starts at home.
Arizona lost 15 of its last 19 games; they're 9-5 in road series openers. Over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. Cincinnati lost six of its last nine games; they're 8-8 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-3 in their last nine home games. Teams are meeting for first time this year.
Mets @ Marlins
Verrett is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
Conley is 2-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Miami is 4-3 when he starts at home.
Mets lost seven of last 10 road games; their last nine games all stayed under. New York is 8-7 in road series openers. Marlins won four of last five games; under is 8-4 in their last twelve games. Miami is 7-8 in home series openers. New York is 5-4 vs Miami this year.
Cubs @ Brewers
Hammel is 1-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Cubs lost five of his last six road starts.
Nelson is 1-1, 1.88 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Milwaukee split his ten home starts.
Cubs won five of last seven games; they're 3-7 in last 10 road series openers. Over is 11-1-1 in Cubs' last 13 road games. Milwaukee lost six of last eight games; they're 7-8 in home series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in last six games at Miller Park. Chicago is 3-2 against the Brewers this year.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
McCarthy is 2-0, 1.69 in three starts this year (under 3-0).
Wacha is 3-0, 4.45 in his last five starts; over is 11-2 in his last 13. Cardinals split his ten road starts this season.
Dodgers won six of last nine games; they're 5-10 in road series openers. Last four Dodger tilts went over the total. St Louis won its last four games; they're 6-11 in home series openers. Under is 13-7-1 in their last 21 home games. LA is 2-1 against the Cardinals this year.
Braves @ Rockies
Teheran is 0-1, 4.58 in his last three starts; under is 10-3 in his last 13. Atlanta split his eight road starts this season.
Gray is 1-1, 3.08 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Colorado is 4-3 when he starts at Coors Field.
Braves lost five of last seven games; under is 12-4-2 in their last 18 road games. Colorado lost three of last five games; over is 10-5 in their last 15 games at Coors Field. Rockies won three of four against the Braves this season.
American League
Indians @ Orioles
Bauer is 0-1, 6.94 in his last two starts; over is 2-0-1 in his last three. Cleveland is 3-4 when he starts on the road.
Bundy allowed four runs in 3.1 IP (70 PT) in his first MLB start.
Indians won three of last four games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Tribe is 10-7 in road series openers. Baltimore won six of last seven home games; they're 8-7 in openers of a home series. Last nine Baltimore games stayed under. Orioles are 2-1 vs Cleveland this year.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Paxton is 1-2, 6.03 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over. He is 1-2, 6.04 in four road starts.
Estrada is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over. Toronto is 5-3 in his home starts.
Mariners lost 11 of last 13 road games; they're 1-6 in last seven road series openers. Under is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Toronto won its last three games; six of its last seven home games stayed under. Jays are 5-10 in home series openers.
Twins @ Red Sox
Gibson is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Minnesota lost three of his four road starts.
Rodriguez is 2-3, 7.43 in seven starts this year (under 4-3). He is 0-2, 7.88 at home. .
Twins lost four of last five games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Boston won 11 of last 13 home games; six of last eight Red Sox games stayed under the total.
Tigers @ White Sox
Fulmer is 2-0, 1.78 in his last four starts (over 9-5). Detroit is 8-2 in his road starts.
Turner allowed eight runs in four IP (80 PT) in his first '16 start.
Tigers won four of last five games; their last four games stayed under. Chicago lost seven of last eight games; five of their last seven games stayed under. Detroit is 5-2 against the Plae Hose this season.
Angels @ Astros
Shoemaker is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; seven of his last nine stayed under. Angels lost six of his nine road starts.
McCullers is 0-2, 3.86 in his last two starts; his last seven stayed under. Houston is 4-3 in his home starts.
Angels won their last six games, last four of which went over; they're 7-8 in first games of a road series. Houston won five of last seven home games; they're 9-6 in home series openers. Halos are 1-8 against Houston this season.
Rangers @ Royals
Darvish is 2-1, 3.15 in four starts this year (under 3-1).
Duffy is 3-0, 3.03 in his last four starts (under 6-4-2).
Rangers lost 14 of last 18 games, are 8-8 in road series openers. Over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Royals lost five of last seven games; they're 13-2 in home series openers. KC's last four home games all went over the total.
Rays @ A's
Odorizzi is 1-3, 5.85 in his last six starts; Rays are 6-3 in his road starts. Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Manaea is 1-1, 3.18 in his last four outings; A's won his last three home starts. Under is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts.
Tampa Bay won its last three games, which all went over. Oakland is 4-7 in its last 11 home games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games. Teams split four games this season.
Interleague
Giants @ Bronx
Bumgarner is 1-1, 1.71 in his last three starts; six of his last eight stayed under.
Tanaka is 4-0, 4.23 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over. Bronx is 8-2 when he starts at home.
Giants lost their last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. SF is 8-7 in road series openers. New York won four of last five games; under is 8-0 in their last eight home games. Bronx is 8-7 in home series openers.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Phil-Pitt-- Eflin 3-4; Cole 6-7
SD-Wsh-- Perdomo 5-3; Roark 11-8 (8-1 last 9)
Az-Cin-- Bradley 6-6; Straily 8-9
NY-Mia-- Verrett 2-5; Conley 11-8
Chi-Mil-- Hammel 10-8; Nelson 9-10
LA-StL-- McCarthy 2-1; Wacha 9-4
Atl-Colo-- Teheran 5-14; Gray 6-10
Cle-Balt-- Bauer 7-7; Bundy 0-1
Sea-Tor-- Paxton 2-7; Estrada 9-7
Min-Bos-- Gibson 4-7; Rodriguez 3-4
Det-Chi-- Fulmer 12-2; Turner 0-1
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 6-12; McCullers 6-5
Tex-KC-- Darvish 2-2; Duffy 9-3
TB-A's-- Odorizzi 9-11; Manaea 6-6
SF-NY-- Bumgarner 13-7; Tanaka 14-5
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Phil-Pitt-- Eflin 3-7; Cole 4-13
SD-Wsh-- Perdomo 5-8; Roark 3-19
Az-Cin-- Bradley 4-12; Straily 4-17
NY-Mia-- Verrett 1-7; Conley 5-19
Chi-Mil-- Hammel 4-18; Nelson 4-19
LA-StL-- McCarthy 1-3; Wacha 4-19
Atl-Colo-- Teheran 4-19; Gray 5-16
Cle-Balt-- Bauer 3-14; Bundy 1-1
Sea-Tor-- Paxton 3-9; Estrada 4-16
Min-Bos-- Gibson 5-11; Rodriguez 3-7
Det-Chi-- Fulmer 2-14; Turner 1-1
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 4-18; McCullers 3-11
Tex-KC-- Darvish 1-4; Duffy 3-12
TB-A's-- Odorizzi 4-20; Manaea 1-12
SF-NY-- Bumgarner 4-20; Tanaka 3-19
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians get it on in a three game set at Camden Yards this weekend.
Orioles are off a lackluster 3-4 road swing platting 2.0 runs/game. A.L. East. Central leading Tribe head into Baltimore having won four of six on this current extended nine game road swing crossing a whopping 6.0 runs/game.
Orioles open the series handing the ball to Dylan Bundy. The righthander holding his own out of the bullpen didn't exactly cover himself in glory in his first start of the season last Sunday. Bundy got crushed for three yard ball, four runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Bundy has never faced Orioles. On the flipside, we have Trevor Bauer who logged 6.0 innings of 4 run ball last Saturday walking off with a no-decion in Indians loss at Minnesota.
Orioles handing starting duties to Bundy does not instill a lot of confidence. However, some very telling baseball betting stats leap out favoring Baltimore. Orioles love home cookin' sporting the leagues best home record at 33-14 and are currently ridding a 7-1 stretch in front of the home audience. Additionally, Orioles have a habit of making life miserable for Indians. Orioles took 2 of 3 earlier this season and have won 8 of 10 meetings vs Tribe including 2-0 with Bauer starting for Cleveland. Sportsbooks have this one a Pick'm with the total set a 9.0 runs.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: July 22nd
By Power Sports
Covers.com
TGIF
When we reach Friday on the MLB schedule, often times you will find a team that’s coming off an off day taking on a team that had to play Thursday. Four such matchups exist this week. The first is a critical battle in the NL East with the rested Mets traveling to Miami. Another is the Cubs, who need no added advantage, in Milwaukee. Over in the American League, Cleveland is rested and Baltimore is not in a battle of playoff contenders. Finally, the lone Interleague series of the weekend sees the Giants coming out to the East Coast with an extra day of rest, looking to snap a five-game losing streak, (starting Madison Bumgarner Friday) to play the Yankees.
Angels Spreading Their Wings
The longest win streak in all of baseball belongs to the Los Angeles Angels. I certainly didn’t expect to be typing that coming out of the All-Star Break. Last weekend saw the Angels sweep the White Sox, holding them to just one run in three games. Up next was a series was a three-game set with the first place Rangers and they swept there too, scoring 24 runs in the process. So they just swept two opponents in two very different ways. However, up next is a series with a team that has had their number throughout 2016 – the Houston Astros. Back on May 27th, the Angels beat the Astros 7-2. Since that time, Houston has come out on top of this AL West rivalry eight straight times. That includes six wins, three in Houston and three more in LA, in a 10-day span in late June. Both teams had Thursday off. It will be interesting to see that stalls the Angels momentum.
Royal Pains
One series I’m very interested in this weekend is Rangers-Royals. As I’ve written about previously, the Rangers are reeling right now (4-12 in July). Their YTD run differential is now down to just +2 (they’re still 55-41 and in 1st place) after being swept by the Angels, who now have a better run differential (+4) than the Rangers despite being nine games below .500 (43-52)! Meanwhile, we also know the story with Kansas City. They are lousy on the road (17-32), but excellent at home (30-15). This series will be contested at Kauffman Stadium, but it’s interesting to note the Royals just dropped two straight here to Cleveland. Like Texas, they also have a run differential (-33) that’s not indicative of their won-loss record (47-47). It might be wise to sit out the opener Friday and see how the series goes.
Pitcher Notes
Even after taking two of three in D.C., the Dodgers are still a game below .500 when Clayton Kershaw is not starting. With Kershaw on the shelf for the foreseeable future, someone else in the rotation has to step up. Might that person be Brandon McCarthy? In three starts so far, McCarthy has a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. He’s allowed only three runs, all in one start vs. San Diego, and eight hits in 16 total innings of work. He’ll get the starting nod Friday in St. Louis.
What Michael Fulmer is doing in Detroit deserves recognition. He now has a 12-2 team start record, good for a net gain of +11.8 units. Only Chris Tillman of Baltimore and Stephen Strasburg of Washington have been better to bet on this season. Fulmer, who was acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes deal with the Mets, has a solid ERA (2.13) and WHIP (1.075). But some more advanced metrics such as FIP and SIERA suggest that he might not be as good as his excellent record suggests. We’ll see how he does Friday in Chicago where he and the Tigers will be favored.
Hitter Notes
The last time the Giants traveled to an American League park, they actually opted to allow pitcher Madison Bumgarner to hit. According to manager Bruce Bochy, that will not be the case Friday night at Yankee Stadium. He’s said he’ll use one of his lefties as a standard DH against Masahiro Tanaka (who will be working on regular rest, a situation that has been unkind to him.)
Part of the reason we’re seeing this long string of Unders out of Baltimore (see below) is that their everyday lineup has been ravaged by both injury and a nasty flu bug. Thursday saw them carried by pitcher Chris Tillman when they were down to just 10 position players. Monitor the situation as a number of players are listed as day to day.
Totals Trend
The Orioles are eighth in runs scored, sixth in team batting average and second in slugging. But the Under has now cashed for them in nine consecutive contests. As mentioned above, this weekend has them hosting Cleveland, who happens to have arguably the best starting rotation in the American League.
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Angels (8-2 last 10)
Los Angeles has started the second half in impressive fashion by sweeping each of its first two series at home against Chicago and Texas. The Angels’ offense blew up by plating at least seven runs in five of those six victories, while flying ‘over’ the total in all three wins over the Rangers. The Halos head to Houston on Friday to begin a three-game set with the Astros as Los Angeles has dropped eight of nine meetings this season. Matt Shoemaker takes the mound in the opener for L.A., as the right-hander is coming off a complete-game gem against the White Sox, striking out 13 batters in a 1-0 triumph last Saturday.
Coldest team: Giants (0-5 last five)
San Francisco finished the first half owning the best record in baseball, but the All-Star break disrupted the Giants’ momentum. Bruce Bochy’s team was swept in San Diego in its first series, followed by a pair of losses at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. San Francisco’s normally reliable pitching staff has allowed an average of 6.2 runs/game during this skid, while none of its starters have lasted past the sixth inning. Madison Bumgarner hopes to turn things around for the Giants, as he takes the ball in the opener against the Yankees in the Bronx. Bumgarner owns a 2.12 ERA this season, but San Francisco has compiled a 2-4 record in his past six starts.
Hottest pitcher: Danny Duffy, Royals (5-1, 3.27 ERA)
Kansas City returns home after visiting the White House to celebrate its 2015 World Series championship. Duffy has been the only consistent pitcher for the Royals, as the southpaw is 3-0 in his last four trips to the mound, including recent wins over the Tigers and Cardinals. In his last four starts, Duffy has walked only two batters, while striking out 30 in 29.1 innings of work. Kansas City hosts Texas as the Royals try to rebound from a pair of losses to the Indians. Duffy faces a Rangers’ squad that has lost six of their past seven games, while Texas owns a dreadful 3-11 record in its previous 14 road contests.
Coldest pitcher: Kyle Gibson, Twins (2-6, 5.12 ERA)
It’s been a rough season for the Minnesota rotation, as Gibson has allowed four earned runs in each of his past three outings. Gibson is coming off a 6-1 home defeat to the Indians in which Cleveland tagged him for 10 hits in six innings of work. The Twins’ right-hander has given up at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts, including allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings in a 15-4 loss to Boston on June 11. The Twins and Red Sox continue their four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday.
Biggest UNDER run: Mets (9-0 last nine)
New York is one of two teams that is riding a nine-game UNDER streak along with Baltimore, but we’ll focus on the Mets here. In its three-game series at Wrigley Field, the Mets scored a total of five runs, while plating two runs or fewer seven times during this nine-game UNDER stretch. Since late June, New York has posted an incredible 11-2 run to the UNDER away from Citi Field, but the Mets are 2-1 to the OVER in three games at Miami this season. New York travels to Miami to start a three-game series as Logan Verrett gets the start on Friday. Verrett has finished UNDER the total in each of his past three starts, while the Mets have scored (Surprise!) two runs or less in each of those outings.
Biggest OVER run: Indians (8-2-2 last 12)
The Indians head to Baltimore for a battle of division leaders as one of these total streaks has to end. Baltimore’s offense has struggled lately, resulting in a 9-0 mark to the UNDER the last nine games. Cleveland is coming off three consecutive OVERS at Kansas City, including putting up 18 runs in the final two victories. Trevor Bauer tries to bounce back against Baltimore after picking up a no-decision in a 6-4 defeat to the Orioles in late May as he heads to the hill. In Bauer’s seven road starts, the Indians are 4-1-2 to the UNDER, while Cleveland has cashed the OVER only once in his past seven starts overall.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Cardinals
St. Louis rallied from a 5-1 deficit to stun San Diego on Thursday, 6-5 to pull off a four-game sweep of the Padres. The Cardinals remain home to battle the Dodgers for a key three-game series between a pair of teams fighting for Wild Card positioning. Los Angeles handed Stephen Strasburg his first loss of the season on Thursday as the Dodgers beat the Nationals, 6-3 to take two of three from Washington.
The Dodgers grabbed two of three from the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine in mid-May as Brandon McCarthy makes his fourth start for Los Angeles. McCarthy has allowed three earned runs in three starts as the Dodgers own a 2-1 record in this stretch. Michael Wacha is winless in his past two trips to the mound for St. Louis following three consecutive victories as the Cardinals have scored at least seven runs in eight of nine team wins when he starts.
Betcha didn’t know: Julio Teheran has been dealt plenty of bad luck this season for Atlanta, in spite of compiling a 2.79 ERA. The Braves are 5-14 in his 19 starts this season, but Teheran helped lift Atlanta to a 1-0 victory over Colorado last Sunday. Atlanta is 10-3 to the UNDER the last 13 starts made by Teheran, including a 5-1 mark in his past six outings on the highway. The Braves and Rockies opened with an 11 total on Friday at Coors Field as the highest total Teheran has pitched to this season is 8 ½ against the Marlins on July 1 (which went OVER).
Biggest public favorite: Pirates (-230) vs. Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Rays (+110) at Athletics
Biggest line move: Yankees (+110 to -105) vs. Giants
Giants travel to New York
By SSportsbook.ag
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (57-38) at NEW YORK YANKEES (48-47)
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Francisco -115, New York +105, Total: 7.0
The Giants will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak when they face the Yankees on Friday.
San Francisco has World Series aspirations and those are not looking particularly great at the moment. The Giants are struggling mightily right now, as they have lost five straight games coming into this meeting with the Yankees. The main issue with this team has been its hitting. San Francisco has gotten five or less hits in three of the past five games and the team will need to figure out a way to get it done offensively against New York.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are playing pretty well coming into this one. They are coming off of a 4-1 loss to the Orioles, but they won their previous four games. The starting pitching has been outstanding for New York, as the team has allowed a total of seven runs over the past five contests.
The starters in this big Friday matchup are set to be LHP Madison Bumgarner (10-5, 2.12 ERA, 155 K) for the Giants and RHP Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.15 ERA, 100 K) for the Yankees. It’s definitely worth noting that Bumgarner is 25-5 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the past two seasons with San Francisco. 3B Chase Headley (Personal) will be joining the Yankees tonight after dealing with an illness that his son was getting over.
Madison Bumgarner is coming off of a rough start against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on seven hits in just six innings of work. The lefty superstar is usually good for at least seven or so innings and it’s important that he works deep into this one against the Yankees on Friday. One thing he will need to do is avoid making mistakes high in the zone. Bumgarner has allowed two homers in two of the past four games and the Yankees will surely make him pay for any costly mistakes on Friday.
Not many Giants players have ever gotten to face Tanaka, but two guys to keep an eye on in this game are C Buster Posey (.286, 12 HR, 44 RBI) and SS Brandon Crawford (.276, 9 HR, 61 RBI). Both guys are absolutely tremendous hitters and the Giants will be counting on them for some type of production on Friday. Posey, however, happens to be just 1-for-11 over the past three games, so it’s important that he finds a way to break out of his slump coming into this one.
Masahiro Tanaka is coming off of a brilliant start against the Red Sox, allowing just one earned run in six innings of work. Tanaka struck out seven batters in that game and walked just one. He’ll be hoping for a similar performance this time out. He has, however, been extremely inconsistent this season and is capable of a very poor performance on any given outing.
Offensively, the return of 3B Chase Headley (.251, 9 HR, 30 RBI) could be huge for the Yankees in this one. He has hit Bumgarner very well in his career, going 10-for-33 with two doubles, three homers and 12 RBI against him. If he could come through in this game then the Yankees might be able to win this one. 2B Starlin Castro (.259, 11 HR, 37 RBI) has also been excellent against Bumgarner, going 11-for-26 with two doubles and two RBI against him in his career. His experience against him in the National League could end up helping him out greatly on Friday.