MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 28th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Teheran is 0-2, 4.38 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Braves are 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

Hellickson is 1-0, 6.05 in his last four starts (under 10-6-4). Phillies are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-12-2

Braves lost four of last five games; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Atlanta is 9-2 in last 11 road series openers. Philly is 5-3 in its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Phillies are 4-12 in home series openers.

Rockies @ Nationals
Marquez is 3-0, 2.48 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Colorado is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-4-3

Roark is 2-0, 3.46 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2

Colorado lost seven of last eight road games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 games overall. Rockies are 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Washington won four of last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Nationals are 10-7 in home series openers.

Reds @ Marlins
Romano is 2-2, 6.00 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Reds are 1-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Worley is 0-2, 7.71 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Miami is 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-1

Cincinnati is 2-12 in its last 14 games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Miami won five of last seven games; three of last four Miami games went over.

Cubs @ Brewers
Quintana 2-0, 2.08 in two starts with the Cubs (under 2-0). Cubs won his only road start for them— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1

Suter is 1-1, 2.93 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Milwaukee is 1-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1

Cubs are 11-2 since All-Star Game; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Chicago is 6-1 in last seven road series openers. Milwaukee is 2-8 in its last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Brewers are 9-7 in home series openers.

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Ray is 1-2, 4.70 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-2 in his last eight. Arizona is 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-6

Wacha is 4-1, 1.86 in his last five starts; his last four starts stayed under. St Louis is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Arizona is 6-4 in its last ten games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. St Louis won three of its last four games; under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games.

Giants @ Dodgers
Moore is 0-3, 6.49 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Giants are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-14-4

Wood is 5-1, 2.87 in his last six starts; Dodgers are 7-1 in his home starts. Under is 4-2 in his last six starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-3-1

Giants are 5-4 in last nine games, 8-8 in road series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Dodgers won their last five games; LA is 13-5 in home series openers. Over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Pirates @ Padres
Kuhl is 1-1, 4.18 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Pirates are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Wood is making his San Diego debut; he was 0-1, 8.31 in three starts for the Royals (under 2-1).

Pirates lost four of last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Bucs are 7-10 in road series openers. San Diego won four of last six home games; they’re 10-7 in home series openers. Over is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games.

American League

Rays @ New York
Pruitt threw three shutout innings in his only ’17 start, at Baltimore (54 PT)— Tampa Bay’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Tanaka is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. New York is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Rays lost six of last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. New York won six of last seven games; four of their last five games went over.

Angels @ Blue Jays
Bridwell is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Angels are 3-0 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 5-1-1

Happ is 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts; Toronto is 2-4 in his home starts. Under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Blue Jays’ first 5-inning record with him: 5-8

Angels lost their last four games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Halos are 7-10 in road series openers. Toronto won its last four games (under 3-1). Blue Jays are 6-10 in home series openers.

Royals @ Red Sox
Vargas is 1-1, 9.95 in his last three starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Royals are 6-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

Price is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts (under 5-4-2). Boston is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5

Royals won their last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five. KC is 7-8 in road series openers. Boston lost four of last five games, is 11-5 in home series openers. Under is 11-2-1 in last 14 games at Fenway Park.

Astros @ Tigers
Keuchel is making his first start since June 2; he is 4-0, 1.57 in his last four starts. Over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Astros are 6-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-0-2

Zimmerman is 1-3, 7.11 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Detroit is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10

Astros won four of last six games, are 13-3 in road series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Detroit lost six of last eight gamed; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Tigers are 10-6 in home series openers.

Orioles @ Rangers
Tillman is 0-0, 2.76 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Baltimore is 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-3

Cashner is 2-1, 3.66 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Texas is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Orioles lost four of last six games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Baltimore is 5-11 in road series openers. Texas is 4-7 in its last 11 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Rangers are 8-8 in home series openers.

Indians @ White Sox
Salazar is 1-2, 4.70 in his last four starts (under 7-4). Indians are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1

Holland is 0-3, 9.21 in his last six starts; over is 11-4 in his last 15. Chicago is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

Cleveland won its last seven games; over is 5-3 in their last eight. Indians are 7-9 in road series openers. White Sox are 1-11 since All-Star Game; under is 4-1-1 in their last six. Chicago is 5-10 in home series openers.

Twins @ A’s
Garcia is making his Minnesota debut; he was 1-4, 6.39 in his last seven starts for Atlanta. Four of his last five starts went over the total.

Gossett 1-3, 5.93 in his last five starts; his last three starts stayed under. Oakland is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5

Twins lost their last four games, are 9-6 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over total. Oakland lost 8 of last 10 games; under is 4-1 in their last five. A’s are 7-9 in home series openers.

Interleague

Mets @ Mariners
Montero is 0-3, 5.12 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Mets are 1-0 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1

Miranda is 0-0, 7.31 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over the total. Seattle is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-1

Mets are 3-6 in last nine road games, 8-7 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Seattle is 5-13 in its last 18 home games, 1-4 in last five home series openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Teheran 9-11; Hellickson 10-10
Col-Wsh: Marquez 10-6; Roark 11-8
Cin-Mia: Romano 2-2; Worley 2-2
Chi-Mil: Quintana 2-0 (10-8 ); Suter 2-3
Az-StL: Ray 12-7; Wacha 9-9
SF-LA: Moore 6-14; Wood 12-4
Pitt-SD: Kuhl 7-13; Wood 0-0 (2-1)

American League
TB-NY: Pruitt 1-0; Tanaka 9-11
LA-Tor: Bridwell 6-1; Happ 4-9
KC-Bos: Vargas 14-5; Price 6-5
Hst-Det: Keuchel 10-1; Zimmerman 7-12
Balt-Tex: Tillman 5-8; Cashner 7-9
Clev-Chi: Salazar 5-6; Holland 6-13
Minn-A’s: Garcia 0-0 (8-9); Gossett 3-5

Interleague
NY-Sea: Montero 2-4; Miranda 12-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Teheran 7-20; Hellickson 6-20
Col-Wsh: Marquez 5-16; Roark 8-19
Cin-Mia: Romano 0-4; Worley 4-4
Chi-Mil: Quintana 4-20; Suter 0-5
Az-StL: Ray 8-19; Wacha 3-18
SF-LA: Moore 7-20; Wood 2-16
Pitt-SD: Kuhl 4-20; Wood 0-3

American League
TB-NY: Pruitt 0-1; Tanaka 9-20
LA-Tor: Bridwell 0-7; Happ 3-13
KC-Bos: Vargas 5-19; Price 4-11
Hst-Det: Keuchel 2-11; Zimmerman 7-19
Balt-Tex: Tillman 5-13; Cashner 4-16
Clev-Chi: Salazar 5-11; Holland 6-19
Minn-A’s: Garcia 4-17; Gossett 0-8

Interleague
NY-Sea: Montero 2-6; Miranda 8-20

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 51-41 AL, favorites -$577
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 100-97 AL, favorites -$943

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-45-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 105-87-6

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (7-0 last seven) vs. White Sox

Following an up and down first three months of the season, the defending American League champions are starting to roll. Granted, the Indians don’t own the longest winning streak in baseball (Royals have won eight straight), but Cleveland rebounded from a 1-5 Bay Area road trip to sweep its seven-game homestand. The Tribe dropped 21 runs on the Angels in the first two victories of their series before edging the Halos on Thursday, 2-1 to improve to 10-1 in the past 11 games at Progressive Field.

Cleveland travels to Chicago to face the last place White Sox as the Indians own a 3-5 record in their past eight road series openers. Danny Salazar is coming off his best start of the season as the Indians’ right-hander tossed seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball in a 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays. Salazar has failed to beat the White Sox in two starts this season, losing as a -230 and -185 favorite, but managed to strike out 20 batters in 11 innings.

Coldest team: Athletics (3-7 last 10) vs. Twins

Both Oakland and Minnesota were swept in their past series on the road, but the A’s found new ways to lose. The A’s blew a ninth inning lead in each of the final two defeats at Toronto, while dropping Thursday’s contest to the Blue Jays, 8-4 on a walk-off grand slam in extra innings. Oakland finished off its road trip at 1-6, while scoring 12 runs in the final five games.

The A’s return home where they have won six of their past eight games at the Coliseum. Oakland squares off with a Minnesota squad that is 4-10 since erasing a 6-0 deficit in a 9-6 victory over Baltimore on June 7. Daniel Gossett is coming off his second career victory for Oakland after edging the Mets, 3-2 this past Sunday as a +140 underdog. The A’s are 1-5 in Gossett’s six starts as a ‘dog this season, as Oakland opened at +100 against Minnesota.

Hottest pitcher: Parker Bridwell, Angels (4-1, 3.09 ERA)

Who? The 25-year old Texas native is unbeaten in three July starts, while allowing a total of four earned runs in this stretch. Two of those three Los Angeles victories came against Boston and Tampa Bay (both above .500 teams) and a solid Minnesota team that has stumbled recently. Bridwell has been a solid underdog this season as L.A. is 5-1 in his six starts, including three road victories as a ‘dog of +140 or higher. The Angels look to snap a three-game skid with a trip to Toronto, as the Jays have won four straight.

Coldest pitcher: Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers (6-8, 5.81 ERA)

Detroit showed signs of life after taking two of three last weekend at Minnesota, but the Tigers went backwards after returning home to face the red-hot Royals. The Tigers were swept by Kansas City, while plating only six runs in the three-game set. Zimmermann has struggled this entire season and the task doesn’t get easier when he faces Houston in the series opener at Comerica Park. The right-hander has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts, while not escaping the fourth inning in a 6-5 defeat at Minnesota last Saturday.

Biggest OVER run: Braves (7-1 last eight)

Atlanta finishes off the third leg of its road trip in Philadelphia this weekend after hitting the OVER in six of the first seven games at Los Angeles and Arizona. The Braves’ offense has exploded in its last three wins by scoring 6, 12, and 8 runs, but the pitching was lit up in the past two losses at Arizona by allowing 20 runs. Julio Teheran starts the opener at Philadelphia, as the Braves’ righty has finished UNDER the total in five of his past six starts, while facing the Phillies for the first time this season.

Biggest UNDER run: Mariners (10-5 last 15)

Seattle has shown inconsistency at home recently as the M’s welcome in the Mets for an interleague series. The Mariners are 3-4 on their current homestand, while being limited to one run or fewer in three of those defeats. Three of the previous four home series openers have finished UNDER the total for the Mariners, as left-hander Ariel Miranda heads to the mound. Miranda is riding a four start OVER streak, while Seattle and its opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in each of his past five trips to the hill.

Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Red Sox

Yes, Kansas City qualified for the hottest team in baseball, but we’d figure they would be better suited in this category. The Royals travel to Fenway Park looking to extend their winning streak to nine games following sweeps of the White Sox and Tigers. Kansas City sits two games behind Cleveland in the AL Central at the 100-game mark, while owning a 53-47 record at this point compared to a 49-51 ledger in 2016.

The Royals send out southpaw Jason Vargas in the opener, who is winless in his last three starts. Vargas already has won the second-most games in a season in his career with 12 victories, including a 5-2 mark on the highway. Kansas City has cashed at a solid clip when Vargas starts as an underdog, posting an 8-2 record, while the Royals are 7-4 in their past 11 opportunities as a road ‘dog.

The Red Sox return home following a 2-4 road swing, but was capped off by a 4-0 shutout of the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston has won seven of its previous eight home series openers as the Sox trot out David Price to the mound. Price was touched up for six runs in five innings of a 7-3 defeat to the Angels his last time out, as the Sox are 1-2 in his previous three starts. The Red Sox have lost three straight series to the Royals since the beginning of 2016, including dropping two of three at Kauffman Stadium in June.

Betcha didn’t know: The Rangers struggle mightily when Andrew Cashner takes the mound following a victory in his last start. Texas has compiled a 1-5 record in this situation after Cashner beat the Rays as a +165 underdog his last time out on July 22. The Orioles invade Arlington owning a dreadful 3-10 record in their past 13 series openers, but one of those wins came over Cashner and the Rangers at Camden Yards on July 17.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-290) vs. Giants

Biggest public underdog: Phillies (+110) vs. Braves

Biggest line move: Cubs (-135 to -155) at Brewers

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Atlanta (-125) at Philadelphia; Total: 9

For a while, Julio Teheran’s name was tossed about on the trading block. Those rumors have quelled now and he can solely focus on his Friday night start against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies will send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound. We’ve seen a lot of money come in against Hellickson in recent starts. A little bit has trickled in thus far, but this line has only moved about 10 cents overnight.

Teheran is not having a good season. In fact, he’s having the worst season of his career. Teheran has a 4.67 ERA with a 5.52 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP. His K% is way down, his BB% is way up, his command is down with a 16 percent HR/FB% and a 1.79 HR/9, and his velocity is down. It’s basically a perfect storm of problems for the right-hander. He has thrown four consecutive quality starts since allowing seven runs on June 25 and six of his last seven starts have met the definition of a quality start. Keep in mind that a quality start is still a 4.50 ERA with three earned runs allowed over six innings.

If Teheran had less concerning peripherals, I could apply the same thoughts to him that I applied to Miguel Gonzalez last season. Teheran has allowed seven earned runs in three starts, nine earned runs in one start, and six earned runs in another start. Those five starts account for 36 of the 60 earned runs that he has allowed. In his other 15 starts, Teheran has a 2.28 ERA. Hidden value can be found by doing this with pitchers that have some pretty big blow-ups and mostly consistent efforts outside of that. Blow-ups happen. They’re outliers, not norms, for most guys.

Jeremy Hellickson has a 4.73 ERA with a 5.50 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He hasn’t missed many bats this season and regression hit him like a ton of bricks a few months ago. Hellickson’s GB% is down, which is a big problem with a decreased strikeout rate and the league-wide craze to hit fly balls. Hellickson’s 14.4 percent HR/FB% is a career worst and it coincides with a fly ball spike, which is doubly bad. The high fly ball rate has led to a .255 BABIP against, but he’s giving up a lot of dingers, so it doesn’t really matter.

Hellickson has actually given up fewer earned runs in his 20 starts than Teheran has in his and Teheran has only worked 3.1 more innings. Any way you slice it, these two guys are having pretty poor seasons.

If we’re talking about hope, I have more for Teheran, so I would lean Braves here. The Phillies also have The Bullpen From Hell. Not that Atlanta’s has been great or anything. There are probably better options tonight, but Atlanta would be the lean.

Cincinnati at Miami (-120); Total: 9.5

Must-see TV comes your way today when Sal Romano takes on Vance Worley. This is better than the old TGIF programming! The market has taken an interest in this game, as it opened a virtual money line pick ‘em and now is clearly slanted to the Marlins side.

This will be Romano’s second straight start against the Fish. He’s got a 5.50 ERA with a 5.32 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP in his 18 big league innings. His Triple-A numbers were strange before the call-up. He had a poor K%, a high BB%, but managed a 3.47/3.43/4.30 because he didn’t allow many home runs. Romano has never posted good LOB% numbers, which leads me to believe that he tips pitches from the stretch or just doesn’t have the mental side of the game nailed down yet. Another part of the equation is that he only throws two pitches, with a fastball and slider making up nearly 97 percent of his arsenal.

That’s a problem in a spot like this. The Marlins were getting their first look at him last time out. Now, they’ve seen him. Romano was actually really good in that start with one run on three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts. With just two pitches at his disposal here, though, there won’t be any surprises. This will be his first time facing the same big league lineup twice. Those starts usually go worse.

Vance Worley has a 6.37 ERA with a 3.39 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP this season. Worley has a 62.2 percent LOB% in his 29.2 innings, which covers four starts and eight relief outings. He hasn’t started since June 9, so we’ll have to see what sort of pitch count he’s on for his own protection. The Marlins bullpen has been losing pieces left and right, with David Phelps traded and Kyle Barraclough on the DL. AJ Ramos will be traded soon as well. That has to be a consideration tonight with Worley probably only going around three or four innings. He worked 3.2 poor innings in each of his last two starts on June 4 and June 9.

I understand and even agree with the line move, but I think backing Worley is tough here. As I mentioned on yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box, I think overs are the way to go with this Miami team the rest of the way. I think that’s the best course of action tonight.

Kansas City at Boston (-175); Total: 9.5

Anybody else a little bit surprised to see this line as high it is? The Regression Monster has found Jason Vargas, finally, as he has allowed 14 runs on 22 hits over his last three outings. He actually luck-boxed his way into five decent innings last time out, as the hapless White Sox couldn’t scratch out more than two runs despite having seven hits. Vargas has been a regression candidate all year long and still is with a 3.08 ERA, a 4.12 FIP, and a 4.90 xFIP. The Red Sox offense had a period of time when it looked like they were going to go on a rampage for several weeks, but has since cooled off. I’m curious to see if Vargas can right the ship tonight.

David Price has a 3.82 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP on the season over 66 innings. His year got off to a late start with some elbow discomfort and the last week has been interesting after his Dennis Eckersley comments. All of Price’s peripherals look pretty good and are gradually coming in his normal ranges. Price gave up six runs on June 8 and six runs, five earned, in his last start. Those two starts account for 11 of his 28 earned runs, so he’s allowed 17 runs in his other nine starts. He is pitching better than the run metrics suggest.

This line is justified. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some people rolling the dice on the Royals to drive the number down a little bit. It is tough to step in front of the Royals, but there may be some margin if the number does come down.

Arizona at St. Louis (-115); Total: 8

Money is gradually coming in on Michael Wacha this morning as the Cardinals host the Diamondbacks. Zack Godley was terrific again last night, so the Diamondbacks are plus one in the series price category, which is something that was discussed on yesterday’s show.

The biggest angle in this game is Robbie Ray. Ray had a 45.5 percent LOB% in his last start, as he allowed four earned runs, five total, on six hits over five innings of work. From May 14 to July 18, Ray had a 94.2 percent LOB% over his last 11 starts. He had a 2.29 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 4.12 xFIP. Regression was all but a certainty for Ray given that LOB%. We saw some in his last start and we could very well see some more tonight.

On the other hand, the Cardinals rank 18th with a .310 wOBA and have an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They do boast one of the league’s higher walk rates against LHP, so that could provide a nice boost against the effectively wild southpaw. I’m a bit concerned that Ray only has four strikeouts in each of his last two starts. Also, since June 11, Ray has walked 26 batters in 41.1 innings of work. He’s also allowed a home run in six straight starts. There are some signs of decline from Ray, who has allowed four earned runs in three of his last six starts.

Michael Wacha is having a solid season. He’s got a 3.93 ERA with a 3.47 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP on the year. His K% is way up and his walk rate has stayed the same. The rest of his peripherals are mostly in the same area, but some positive regression in his LOB% has been a big boost. Wacha’s 64.7 percent LOB% last season led to a 5.09 ERA. This season, it sits at 70.8 percent, which is likely a byproduct of more strikeouts. It’s still below the league average, but it’s certainly better than last season.

Wacha Flocka Flame seemed to hit a second gear when July started. He’s struck out 32 and walked just four over his last 26.2 innings of work. His velocity readings have also improved. You’re buying on a rising pitcher and selling on a falling one today with a play on the Cardinals and that’s how we’re going to handle this game. I’ll take the Cardinals.

Minnesota (-110) at Oakland; Total: 9

Jaime Garcia is scheduled to make what could be his only career start with the Twins as they take on the Oakland A’s. Oakland suffered yet another devastating loss on Thursday and then made the cross-country flight back home with an uncertain future waiting for them in California. The A’s have a lot of players on the trade block that could go at some point this weekend, which makes for a pretty uncomfortable situation for all involved.

Jaime Garcia went from the Braves to the Twins in a move that made no sense. The Twins had no business buying and then they subsequently got swept by the Dodgers, while the Indians and Royals hit hot streaks. Now Minnesota is well off the pace and is looking for somebody to take Garcia. It was a rookie move by inexperienced GM Derek Falvey.

In any event, we’ll see what Garcia has in store for today. Garcia had a 4.30 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP in 113 innings of work with the Atlanta Braves. Now, he pitches in the American League for the first time in his career. This is a decent matchup for Garcia as an unfamiliar left-hander with a high ground ball split. The A’s want to elevate. Garcia wants to keep the ball on the ground. This sets up a lot like yesterday’s Marcus Stroman matchup, but hopefully with an umpire that knows what the strike zone is.

Daniel Gossett has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.35 xFIP in his 43.1 innings of work this season. The Oakland right-hander looks a little bit refreshed out of the Break, with five runs allowed on 12 hits over his last two starts with a 9/3 K/BB ratio. It can be a real grind for young arms their first time around the big leagues. Gossett has allowed 11 HR in 43.1 innings of work at the MLB level. He’s not a great pitcher by any means, but the Twins offense has been stuck in neutral for a while now.

This might actually be an under spot out at O.co Coliseum. This isn’t a game that will draw a whole lot of attention, nor should it. But the Twins are regressing rapidly away from home and this is already a long road trip. The A’s are back home after a long trip of their own and have all those other things to worry about.

Pittsburgh (-105) at San Diego; Total: 8

After enjoying an off day on the West Coast, the Pirates get back to work with a matchup against the Padres. It will be Chad Kuhl for the Pirates against newly-acquired left-hander Travis Wood for the Padres. The Pirates now sit 4.5 back in the NL Central, as the Cubs have gotten hot and the Pirates have cooled off in a big way.

This is a big series for Pittsburgh. The Padres are playing a bit better of late and the market has been siding with them more often than not. Kuhl has a 4.92 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 4.62 xFIP. His K% is up a little bit from last season, but you would still expect more from a guy with his velocity. One thing I do need to mention that I did not mention on yesterday’s show with regards to Pirates pitchers is that PNC Park is such a great pitcher’s park that many of their guys do have low HR/FB%. In Kuhl’s case, though, his HR/FB% at home is almost double what it is on the road. He’s actually been awful at home and decent on the road, but whatever reason.

Travis Wood has only made three starts and 25 relief appearances this season with a 6.91 ERA, a 4.52 FIP, and a 5.55 xFIP. I’m not really understanding where this line is coming from. The Padres have weakened their bullpen with the trades of Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter. Brad Hand is going to go next. The offense is young and inconsistent.

Something seems off here. With the Pirates having a day off to reset the batteries, I like them in this spot tonight. I’ll take them in this late night contest.

Red-hot Nats host Rockies
By: StatFox.com

The Rockies will be looking to avoid a four-game losing streak when they face the Nationals on Friday.

Colorado is struggling right now, as the team has now lost three straight games and four of its past six. The Rockies have allowed eight or more runs in two of the three games during this losing streak and they’ll need to find a way to improve on that moving forward. The Nationals, meanwhile, have now won two straight and four of their past five. They have put up 23 runs over their past two games, and one would think that they’re looking forward to facing this struggling Rockies group of pitchers. The starters in this Friday night game are going to be RHP German Marquez (8-4, 4.20 ERA, 85 K) for Colorado and RHP Tanner Roark (8-6, 4.83 ERA, 96 K) for Washington. One trend that favors the Rockies in this game is the fact that they are 22-16 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Nationals, however, have the pleasure of facing a Colorado team that is also a lousy 4-15 against the money line versus teams with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse over the past two seasons.

The Rockies can use a victory on Friday and Marquez is one of the better guys they can be sending to the hill. Marquez is as solid of a pitcher that the Rockies have right now, and his 4.08 ERA on the road gives the team some hope in this one. Colorado is easily capable of putting up five or so runs in this one, so the team would have to be happy if he were to allow four or fewer runs in this one. Offensively, OFs Nolan Arenado (.313 BA, 23 HR, 89 RBI) and Charlie Blackmon (.326 BA, 24 HR, 69 RBI) are two guys that will be counted on to come through in this game. Going up against a mediocre pitcher like Roark, it’d be surprising if at least one of them didn’t have a huge performance. Arenado happens to be red-hot coming into this one, as he has raised his average from .304 to .313 over the past 10 games. He has had seven multi-hit games in that span, and he has racked up six homers and 18 RBI over the past nine games.

The Nationals are rolling right now and they will be hoping that Tanner Roark can keep up his recent string of solid performances. Over his past two starts, Roark has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings of work. He struck out 16 batters in those two games, and he walked only four. If he can continue to miss bats like that then he should be able to finish the season off strong. As for Roark’s run support, the Nationals are going to need guys like OF Bryce Harper (.338 BA, 27 HR, 79 RBI) and 2B Daniel Murphy (.340 BA, 17 HR, 73 RBI) to come through in a big way this series. The Rockies can pile on runs, so the Nationals will need their bats to be hot. Harper is just that, as he is on a 19-game hitting streak and has homered seven times in the past 11 games.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Colorado (58-45) at Washington (61-39)

Scheduled rotation: Marquez (8-4) vs. Roark (8-6), Freeland (10-7) vs. Fedde (0-0), Gray (3-1) vs. Jackson (1-1)

Series price: Nationals -155, Rockies +135

Look for lots of runs scored in this series just like when they met in April at Coors Field where the Nationals took three of four with all four games flying Over the total. The Nats scored a total of 46 runs between the four games. Not a lot has changed offensively for the Nats since then as they remain the NL leader in almost every hitting category including runs scored (5.6), batting average (.279) and slugging (.858). The Rockies come in hitting well also and have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 12 games. Colorado's offense will be aided this weekend because they'll miss Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg who just went on the DL. Taking Strasburg's place will be the Nats 2014 first round pick from UNLV, Erick Fedde, who makes him MLB debut Saturday. I'm rooting for him to do well because I went to UNLV also, but I'll be on the Over.

Chicago Cubs (54-47) at Milwaukee (54-50)

Scheduled rotation: Quintana 96-8 ) vs. Suter (1-1), Hendricks (4-3) vs. Guerra (1-4), Lackey (7-9) vs. Davies (12-4)

Series price: Cubs -180, Brewers +160

The Cubs are finally rolling and come in on an 11-2 run while the Brewers have lost nine of their last 11. The Cubs have taken control of the wide open NL Central and have a 1.5-game lead over the Brewers. Something to watch for here is the totals going Over. The Over has gone 13-3-1 in their last 17 meetings.

San Francisco (40-63) at LA Dodgers (71-31)

Scheduled rotation: Moore (3-10) vs. Wood (11-1), Blach (6-6) vs. Hill (7-4), Cain (3-9) vs. Ryu (3-6)

Series price: Dodgers -400, Giants +340

You can throw out the records and standings in this one and expect the Giants to be at their best against their most hated rivals. This is the playoffs for the Giants and they're on a run of winning nine of the last 13 against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won five straight coming in. They haven't lost since Clayton Kershaw went down Sunday with a back injury (out 4-6 weeks). But the Giants have won two straight. Taking the Giants to win the series offers some decent value. Some of these match-ups we've seen already this season. Ty Blach beat Rich Hill, 2-1, in May and they'll hook up Saturday. Matt Cain beat Hyun-Jin Ryu, 2-1, in April and they'll face each other on Sunday. It's tough betting against a team on a 44-11 run, but San Francisco should be game. One note to also keep in mind is that the Giants have gone 10-3-2 to the Over in their last 15 games.

Pittsburgh (50-52) at San Diego (45-57)

Scheduled rotation: Kuhl (3-7) vs. Wood (1-3), Nova (10-7) vs. Lamet (4-4), Cole (8-7) vs. Richard (5-11)

Series price: Pirates -140, Padres +120

The most interesting thing about this series is what will happen with the totals because both teams are streaking in opposite directions. Petco Park is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, but the Padres are currently ona run of going 12-3-1 to the Over in their last 16 games. The Pirates have been getting solid pitching, good fielding and can't hit so the Under has been cashing regularly. The Under has gone 19-6-1 in their last 26 games. Because the Pirates have their best two starters going on Saturday and Sunday, laying the -140 with them to win the series is a good play.

Kansas City (53-47) at Boston (56-47)

Scheduled rotation: Vargas (12-4) vs. Porcello (4-13), Cahill (4-3) vs. TBA, Hammel (4-8 ) vs. Rodriguez (4-3)

Series price: Red Sox -175, Royals +155

Kansas City is red hot with an eight-game winning streak, but they can't make up any ground in the AL Central because all of a sudden the Indians have decided play their best ball and ride a seven-game win streak. The Royals still sit two games out of first-place. This is a very live spot for the Royals to keep rolling and win the series and things were made a bit easier as David Price was scratched and put on the DL Friday. The Red Sox return home after a poor road trip (2-4) and have lost five of their last seven allowing the Yankees to get back into the picture in the division after they faded. Boston only has a half-game lead over the Yankees. The Royals took two of three from Boston at Kansas City in June and have won eight of the past 11 meetings overall. Keep note of Boston currently staying Under in nine of its last 13 games. The Royals are batting .305 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are hitting only .215 over the same span. Big Papi, where are you?

Cleveland (55-45) at Chicago White Sox (39-60)

Scheduled rotation: Salazar (3-5) vs. Holland (5-9), Kluber (8-3) vs. Gonzalez (5-9), Tomlin (7-9) vs. Rondon (1-4)

Series price: Indians -330, White Sox +270

This is a big series price for an Indians squad that has only won five of the nine meetings with the White Sox. However, the Indians are playing their best ball of the season and ride a seven-game win streak. At the same time, no team is playing worse than the White Sox who have lost 15 of their last 17. The best Indians theme all season has to bet them Under the total, especially on the road where they're on a 34-16-7 Under run.

Houston (67-34) at Detroit (45-55)

Scheduled rotation: Keuchel (9-0) vs. Zimmermann (6-8 ), McHugh (0-0) vs. Boyd (4-5), McCullers (7-2) vs. Verlander (5-7)

Series price: Astros -175, Tigers +155

Houston has lost 13 of their last 17 meetings in Detroit, but throw all that out the window. Both these squads are in drastically different places. When they last met in May, at Houston, the Astros took three of four. They kick off the series by welcoming back Dallas Keuchel who they've won 10 of 11 behind. Houston on the road is the most dangerous team in baseball going 37-13 for a profit of +22.2 units. They've only stayed Under the total in 13 of those games because they average 7.1 runs a game while batting .303 on the road. That is incredible! Detroit comes in having lost three straight and kick things off Friday with Jordan Zimmermann who has a 7.42 ERA between his last three starts, all of which went Over. Playing these totals Over daily in this series looks like the move.