MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 7th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Pirates @ Cubs
Williams is 0-0, 4.82 in his last five starts; his last three starts stayed under. Pirates are 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-1

Butler is 1-2, 4.63 in his last five starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Chicago is 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4

Pirates won their last three games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six. Bucs are 5-9 in road series openers. Cubs are 4-7 in last 11 home games, 5-8 in home series openers. Last three Chicago games went over total.

Padres @ Phillies
Richard is 0-1, 7.88 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. San Diego is 2-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-8-1

Pivetta is 1-2, 4.55 in his last five starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Phillies are 1-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5-2

San Diego won three of its last four games, is 3-10 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Philly lost its last three games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five home games. Phillies are 3-10 in last 13 home series openers.

Mets @ Cardinals
deGrom is 4-0, 1.13 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Mets are 5-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-1

Martinez is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. St Louis is 6-3 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2

Mets didn’t play last two days; they lost last three games, are 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. St Louis won six of last nine games; they’re 8-8 in home series openers. Over is 17-6-1 in their last 24 games.

Braves @ Nationals
Dickey is 2-0, 0.90 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Atlanta is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-3

Scherzer is 3-1, 1.24 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Washington is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 12-4-1

Braves are 9-3 in last 12 home games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Washington won four of last six home games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Reds @ Diamondbacks
Adleman is 1-3, 5.87 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Reds are 1-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1

Greinke is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11. Arizona is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2

Cincinnati is 6-4 in its last ten games; their last seven games stayed under. Reds are 6-9 in road series openers. Arizona lost its last three games; under is 6-3-2 in their last 11. Snakes are 9-5 in home series openers.

Marlins @ Giants
Straily is 2-0, 2.31 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Miami is 4-3 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-6-1

Moore is 1-4, 6.70 in his last eight starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Giants are 2-5 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-13-2

Marlins lost six of last nine games, are 5-9 in road series openers. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Giants won seven of last nine games; they’re 5-7 in home series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

American League

Astros @ Raptors
Morton’s last start was May 24; he is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts. Over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Astros are 1-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2

Sanchez is making his first start since May 19; he is 0-1, 4.70 in five starts this season (under 4-1). Toronto is their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Houston is 9-2 in its last 11 road games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Toronto won its last three games; over is 3-1 in their last four home games.

Tigers @ Indians
Zimmerman is 0-2, 3.86 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1). Detroit is 1-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-8

Carrasco is 4-0, 3.86 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Indians are 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-1

Detroit is 6-4 in its last ten games; they’re 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Cleveland is 4-6 in its last ten home games, 5-9 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Red Sox @ Rays
Pomeranz is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Boston is 4-3 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7

Odorizzi is 2-1, 7.63 in his last three starts; his last six starts all went over. Rays are 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-4

Boston won six of its last eight games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Rays are 9-4 in last 13 home games; over is 11-1 in their last 12 home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Nolasco is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (15.1 IP); under is 10-4 in his last 14 starts. Angels are 2-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-3

Hamels is 3-0, 4.56 in his last four starts; Texas scored 39 runs in those games. Over is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Texas is 2-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-0-1

Angels lost three of last four games, are 7-8 in road series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Texas lost six of last eight games, is 7-7 in home series openers. Over is 16-3-1 in their last 20 home games.

Orioles @ Twins
Gausman is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (12.2 IP); his last three starts stayed under. Orioles are 2-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-10

Jorge allowed three runs in five IP (85 PT) in his first MLB start. Minnesota’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Baltimore lost six of last seven games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Minnesota won four of last six games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.

A’s @ Mariners
Manaea is 6-1, 3.00 in his last nine starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Oakland is 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-5

Paxton is 1-1, 2.70 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3

Oakland won its last three games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games. Seattle lost eight of its last ten games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Interleague

Milwaukee @ New York
Guerra is 0-2, 8.55 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Milwaukee is 1-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2

Montgomery is 4-0, 2.95 in his last six starts; his last five starts all went over. New York is 4-3 in his home starts- New York’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1

Milwaukee won six of last seven games; they’re 6-6 in road series openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 games. New York lost four of last five games, is 8-5 in home series openers. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

White Sox @ Rockies
Holland is 0-2, 8.36 in his last three starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Chicago is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Marquez is 0-1, 5.17 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Colorado is 6-4-3 their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3

White Sox lost five of last seven road games; they’re 5-10 in road series openers. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Colorado is 3-12 in its last 15 games, 10-3 in home series openers. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Colorado games.

Royals @ Dodgers
Hammel is 1-1, 5.71 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11. Royals are 1-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-3

Maeda is 2-2, 4.18 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Dodgers won his last five road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1

Kansas City won six of last seven games; they’re 6-7 in road series openers. Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games. Los Angeles is 15-1 in last 16 home games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Dodgers are 11-4 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Pitt-Chi: Williams 5-6; Butler 5-5
SD-Phil: Richard 6-11; Pivetta 3-7
Atl-Wsh: Dickey 10-6; Scherzer 11-6
NY-StL: deGrom 10-6; Martinez 8-9
Cin-Az: Adleman 6-8; Greinke 12-5
Mia-SF: Straily 10-7; Moore 5-12

American League
Hst-Tor: Morton 6-4; Sanchez 4-7
Det-Clev: Zimmerman Carrasco
Bos-TB: Pomeranz 10-6; Odorizzi 6-9
LA-Tex: Nolasco 5-12; Hamels 3-4
Balt-Min: Gausman 9-9; Jorge 1-0
A’s-Sea: Manaea 8-7; Paxton 7-6

Interleague
Mil-NY; Guerra 3-6; Montgomery 7-8
Chi-Colo: Holland 6-10; Marquez 7-6
KC-LA: Hammel 4-12; Maeda 9-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Pitt-Chi: Williams 3-11; Butler 3-10
SD-Phil: Richard 4-17; Pivetta 3-10
Atl-Wsh: Dickey 8-5-3 Scherzer 4-17
NY-StL: deGrom 6-16; Martinez 4-17
Cin-Az: Adleman 4-14; Greinke 1-17
Mia-SF: Straily 4-17; Moore 6-17

American League
Hst-Tor: Morton 1-10; Sanchez 4-11
Det-Clev: Zimmerman Carrasco
Bos-TB: Pomeranz 5-16; Odorizzi 5-15
LA-Tex: Nolasco 4-17; Hamels 4-7
Balt-Min: Gausman 4-18; Jorge 1-1
A’s-Sea: Manaea 3-15; Paxton 1-13

Interleague
Mil-NY; Guerra 2-9; Montgomery 4-15
Chi-Colo: Holland 5-16; Marquez 4-13
KC-LA: Hammel 1-16; Maeda 6-13

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 44-31 AL, favorites -$993
AL @ NL– 44-43 NL, favorites -$552
Total: 88-74 AL, favorites -$1,545

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 43-35-2
AL @ NL: Over 47-35-2
Total: Over 90-70-4

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Royals (6-1 last seven) at Dodgers

Following a pair of World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015 (including a title), the door seemed to close on Kansas City after 81-81 last season. A poor start to 2017 started the fire sale rumors of several key players by the All-Star break, but those whispers have disappeared after Kansas City caught fire and went on an 18-6 run. The Royals begin the weekend one game behind Cleveland atop the AL Central as Kansas City is fresh off a three-game road sweep of Seattle.

The Royals remain out west to finish the first half and will be tested against the NL West-leading Dodgers. Jason Hammel takes the mound in the series opener as Kansas City has dropped four of his five road starts this season. However, Kansas City has fared well on the road inside interleague play this season by posting a 4-1 record against NL West squads San Diego and San Francisco.

Coldest team: Rockies (3-12 last 15) vs. White Sox

Colorado has failed to win a series in its last five tries, but the Rockies split a four-game set with the Reds on Thursday. The usually reliable Rockies’ offense has dried up during this stretch as they have scored three runs or less in 10 of their past 11 losses, but Colorado has put together a solid 7-1 record in its past eight home series openers.

The Rockies close out the first half with an interleague series against the White Sox at Coors Field as German Marquez takes the mound. Marquez is winless in his last two starts, but Colorado has won each of his past three home outings, while allowing three earned runs in 19.2 innings of work.

Hottest pitcher: Jacob deGrom, Mets (8-3, 3.55 ERA)

deGrom received an extra two days of rest after New York’s game against Washington on Wednesday was rained out. The New York ace is coming off a dominating June after getting lit up at Texas in a 10-8 loss. deGrom posted a perfect 4-0 record in his last four starts of the month, while allowing four runs (three earned) and striking out 31 batters. The right-hander has tossed at least eight innings in two of his previous three road starts as the Mets travel to St. Louis to face the Cardinals.

Coldest pitcher: Clayton Richard, Padres (5-8, 4.85 ERA)

San Diego is heating up of late after capturing a road series victory at Cleveland. The Padres head to Philadelphia this weekend as Richard is winless in his last three starts. The southpaw was knocked around in his past two outings at home against the Dodgers and Tigers, allowing 18 hits and 12 earned runs in 10.2 innings of work. To make matters worse, the Padres own a 1-6 record in Richard’s last seven road starts since knocking off the Dodgers as a +200 underdog in the first week of the season.

Biggest OVER run: White Sox (6-0 last six)

Chicago’s pitching has been touched up recently by allowing 14 runs in the last two losses at Oakland, while giving up at least five runs in five of the past six games. The White Sox’ offense hasn’t been bad lately by plating four runs or more in seven consecutive contests, while putting up 26 runs in its past four games on the highway. Chicago heads to Colorado where that streak can continue as Friday’s starter Derek Holland has cashed the OVER in eight consecutive away starts.

Biggest UNDER run: Giants (7-1 last eight)

San Francisco was the biggest disappointment in the first half, but the Giants have won seven of their last nine games. The Giants return home from a six-game road swing to host the Marlins looking to head into the All-Star break on a high note. San Francisco finished UNDER the total in all three games at Detroit, although each total closed at 10 or higher. Matt Moore has been nearly an automatic UNDER at AT&T Park this season as the Giants are 6-1 to the UNDER in the southpaw’s seven home starts.

Matchup to watch: Brewers vs. Yankees

Two teams going in different directions hook up for an interleague set in the Bronx this weekend. Milwaukee has won seven of its past eight games after destroying Chicago in a make-up game at Wrigley Field on Thursday, 11-2. The Brewers have allowed five runs in the past four games, while building a 4 ½-game advantage over the Cubs in the NL Central.

The Yankees put together a six-game winning streak in early June, but the Bronx Bombers have slipped the last three weeks by compiling a 6-16 record the last 22 contests. New York looks to extend its hot streak in series openers to five with a victory on Friday as Jordan Montgomery takes the mound. Montgomery is unbeaten in his last six starts as the Yankees are 4-2 in this span with the two losses coming by one run each.

Brewers’ right-hander Junior Guerra has struggled of late by lasting only four innings in each of his past two starts, losses to the Reds and Marlins. However, Guerra thrived in his largest underdog spot of the season, which also came in New York as he tossed six scoreless innings in a 7-1 rout of the Mets on May 31 as a +180 ‘dog.

Betcha didn’t know: Detroit and Cleveland are hooking up for their fourth series of the season. In the first three series, the Tigers have won the opener each time, cashing as underdogs of +140, +125, and +110. Detroit opened up as +180 underdogs on Friday at Cleveland as Jordan Zimmermann seeks his first win as a road ‘dog this season in seven tries.

Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-275) vs. Braves

Biggest public underdog: Padres (+115) at Phillies

Biggest line move: Astros (-115 to -130) at Blue Jays

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

San Diego at Philadelphia (-125); Total: 9

After winning two out of three from the Indians, the San Diego Padres take their show further east to take on the Philadelphia Phillies. This will be an interesting series to watch from a betting market standpoint because the Padres, at least prior to the series in Cleveland, had been taking on some money. People can’t phade the Phillies phast enough this year, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the market inch down this weekend.

In fact, we’re actually seeing that a little bit for Friday, with Clayton Richard and Nick Pivetta listed as the starters. Richard could be a pretty popular trade candidate, along with Trevor Cahill, as the Padres look to scoop up any and all lottery tickets being offered to them this month. Richard got shelled by the Dodgers his last time out and now has a 4.85 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP. The peripherals are better than the primary stats, as Richard deals with a .347 BABIP against as a very extreme ground ball guy. He has a 57.9 percent rate of worm-burners, though he’s still allowed 13 HR in 104 innings of work.

Sometimes balls just aren’t hit at fielders. That was the case in his last start on June 30. The same thing happened in his June 25 start against Detroit. He has given up six runs twice this season. It’s just a thing that extremely ground ball guys face, especially those without a good defense in support. To me, that makes Richard a tough guy to back, since he can’t do a lot of it himself with a 6.32 K/9.

It seems that Nick Pivetta’s out-of-body experience has been put on hold. The 24-year-old right-hander has had an interesting rookie season to say the least. Last time out, the only hit Pivetta allowed was a solo home run across seven innings. He only had four strikeouts and four walks. In his start before that, he allowed six runs on seven hits and walked five against Arizona. Prior to that, though, Pivetta had two starts covering 13 innings with just three runs allowed and a 19/3 K/BB ratio. It isn’t a big surprise to se inconsistency like that from a rookie. Nineteen of Pivetta’s 53 strikeouts came in 13 of his 52 innings, so we don’t really know what we’re dealing with.

As I’ve said before, my entire goal in handicapping baseball is to eliminate as much variance as possible. There isn’t really a good way to do that in a game like this. If I had to bet it, I’d probably look at the Padres, since I’m not interested in laying prices with Phillies pitchers not named Aaron Nola.

Houston (-130) at Toronto; Total: 9.5

On yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box, I got angry with myself for not sticking to my guns about the Toronto Blue Jays, who took a series from the New York Yankees to start the week. Well, now they’ve taken the first game in this four-game series against the Houston Astros and beat up on Lance McCullers to do it. Guess I should have dug my heels in even harder instead of just walking away.

Anyway, tonight’s game is a very interesting one. Charlie Morton and Aaron Sanchez are both returning from the disabled list. Morton was out with a lat injury and Sanchez has been sidelined with a blister problem. Morton has made three rehab outings covering 10.1 innings and has looked okay, but not great, with eight strikeouts, four walks, and one run allowed on three hits. Before the injury, Morton was one of the bigger surprises of the season. He had a 4.06 ERA, which obviously wasn’t great, but he had 65 strikeouts in 57.2 innings with some newfound velocity. He has a 3.99 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP, so the underlying metrics are looking for some better fortunes, but I’m not sure how his command will look in this first start back.

Sanchez returned from his blister problem to make two starts on May 14 and 19 and he hasn’t made an MLB appearance since. Sanchez was off to 3.33/5.05/4.96 start, with a low BABIP and a high LOB% carrying his ERA. It’s hard to fully evaluate his performance since the blister issue has been kind of an ongoing thing. He made two starts on April 8 and 14, hit the DL before making a start on April 30, and then came back for those two May outings. That’s a really tough thing for a pitcher, since he does all that Spring Training work and it’s basically gone at this point. Sanchez has one rehab start at High-A and one at Triple-A. Neither one went particularly well.

I have no idea what to do here. I’d probably trust Morton a little bit more, given that his injury was a core muscle problem, not a hand, elbow, or shoulder problem, but probably not enough to lay the -130 price. If I had to play it, I’d lay the chalk, but I don’t have to play it and neither do you.

Boston (-140) at Tampa Bay; Total: 8.5

Jacob Faria outpitched Chris Sale on Thursday night to slow down the surging Boston Red Sox. Judging by the betting market, the expectation is that the Red Sox will bounce back on Friday night. Drew Pomeranz opened a -121 favorite at Bookmaker and is now a -138 favorite. Pinnacle has also seen a 12-cent move. The Rays have struggled with southpaws this season and Pomeranz has strikeout upside, so there’s a lot to like about this matchup for him.

The question now becomes whether or not we want to take Boston to knock Jake Odorizzi around. Odorizzi has a 4.08 ERA with a 5.51 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP. Some of the line movement in this game may be related to that ERA/xFIP discrepancy, but keep in mind that extreme fly ball pitchers generally have that ERA/xFIP disconnect. Odorizzi has a .245 BABIP against because of a lot of weak contact and also because 18 of the 72 hits he has allowed have left the ballpark. He has given up a home run in 14 of his 15 starts this season and in 12 straight starts. Fortunately, he’s only allowed one home run in most of those games, but that’s still a significant number.

Everything seems to set up nicely here for Boston if you’re willing to lay the -135 or -140 price tag that is being offered in the market.

New York at St. Louis (-115); Total: 8

Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez meet in tonight’s highlight pitching matchup. I’ve talked about deGrom a few times over the last few weeks as a guy that was pitching better than his traditional metrics would suggest and he’s been on quite a roll. Since allowing eight runs to Texas on June 6, deGrom has allowed one run in each of his last four starts with a 31/8 K/BB ratio across 32 innings of work. He’s faced Philadelphia and San Francisco in that span, but he has also faced Washington and the Cubs. deGrom now boasts a 3.55 ERA with a 3.63 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP on the season with 125 K in 104 innings of work. He’s clearly the class of the Mets pitching staff with Noah Syndergaard out.

Think about this. deGrom allowed five runs to Atlanta on May, four runs to Milwaukee on May 14, seven runs to Milwaukee on May 31, and eight runs to Texas on June 6. That accounts for 24 of the 41 runs that deGrom has allowed this season in just four of his 16 starts. He’s given up 17 runs in his other 12 starts. Save for the occasional blow-up and deGrom has been as reliable as they come. He got some extra rest prior to this start thanks to Wednesday’s rainout in Washington.

Carlos Martinez is having a special season. The Cardinals are not, but the 25-year-old right-hander is just getting better and better. He has a 3.15 ERA with a 3.54 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP. His HR/FB% is up a bit this season, despite a higher number of fly balls, which is a tiny bit concerning, but he’s struck out 124 in 111.1 innings of work. His walk rate is up a touch, but you can certainly deal with that given the strikeout bump. It may just be noise, variance, or luck, but I take the fact that Martinez’s BABIP has decreased in each of his last three full seasons as a good sign that he is learning his craft. He’s developing as a pitcher. Sure, the increased home run total this season helps this year’s .263 BABIP, but he has a .204 batting average against, which is 28 points lower than last year’s.

I love both of these starters tonight. I’d recommend taking the bullpens out of the equation, but a first five under play looks good for tonight with a couple of strikeout pitchers and a couple of lineups that see these two starters once or twice a season.

Miami (-115) at San Francisco; Total: 8.5

Will we see our usual Miami steam today? The Marlins go from St. Louis to San Francisco, which is a very long trip, as we know, for the final series before the All-Star Break. It has been a tough first half for Miami, an underachieving team buried in the NL East with a runaway leader and three mediocre teams, and one really bad team. Dan Straily has been backed a lot this season, and deservedly so. But, the Giants are playing a lot better of late and Miami is a long way from home with a four-day break on the horizon.

Oh, and Miami opened a favorite. We’ve seen some speckles of Miami money on the overnights, which leads me to believe that nothing can stop the Marlins backers right now. It doesn’t hurt that Matt Moore has a 5.78 ERA with a 4.76 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP. He’s also been one of the hardest hit pitchers per the Statcast metrics this season, with a ton of high exit velocity contact and barreled balls. His .332 BABIP would seem to support those numbers. He’s also had sequencing problems with a 66.2 percent LOB%. Mix in 14 HR in 95 innings and that’s how you get an ERA near 6.

Straily brings a 3.51 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP to the Left Coast. Straily is an extreme fly ball guy, hence the big ERA/xFIP disconnect. He has an 11.2 percent HR/FB%, so he’s still given up some dingers, but he’s struck out nearly a batter per inning in 95 innings this season. That being said, I do have some concerns about Straily. His K% by month has gone from 27.4 percent to 24.5 percent to 23.4 percent to 16.7 percent in his one July start. Fortunately, his walk rate has gone down from April to July, but Straily’s best asset has been that strikeout rate. He’s also been fortunate to post a 79.1 percent LOB% in May and an 82.7 percent LOB% in June, despite the drop in strikeouts.

Straily might actually be a guy to sell for the next little while. Extreme fly ball guys with good strikeout rates can and will post good LOB% marks, but Straily’s are definitely high for a guy with a declining strikeout rate. His fly ball rate also went from 49.5 percent in May to 34.2 percent in June. That’s not a good development at all.

I truly believe that Straily is in a precarious spot in this start and if he doesn’t go back to being an extreme fly ball guy. His pop up rate went from 23.3 percent in April to 15.2 percent in May to a paltry 3.7 percent in June. Pop ups are great because they are essentially strikeouts. It looks like Straily is moving away from the things that have given him success this season and I’m worried about that.

Because of that, I’ll look to the Giants today, even with Moore on the mound. Wait this line out because you’ll probably get a better price closer to game time and can maybe grab San Francisco at +115 or +120.

Friday's Best Bet
By BetOnline.ag

Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies

Odds: Chicago (+144), Colorado (-154); Total set at 11.5

The Colorado Rockies are hoping to regain some of that consistency that saw them storm out of the gates in April and May, as the Rockies are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and have really fallen out of the race for the NL West crown.

They currently enter action tonight 8.5 games behind the Dodgers for 1st, and while there is no denying the fact that L.A has been one of the most dominant teams all year, the Rockies definitely expected to be closer then they are at the All-Star break after that great start.

Colorado closes the first half of the season with an interleague matchup against the Chicago White Sox this evening, and this is a great opportunity for them to beat up on a last place squad and head into the time off feeling good about themselves. Will the Rockies get the job done in the opener?

Trusting the Rockies to win SU at this -150 price is a little tough given their current form, especially when you consider that they are having trouble keeping opponents off the scoresheet. Colorado has allowed 5+ runs five times over their last 10 games (all losses), and against a White Sox team that has scored 4+ in their last seven, I'm not about to lay 50 cents on the dollar to take Colorado in this spot.

Instead, it's this total that I'm focusing on as the combination of Chicago's bats being rather healthy at the moment and two struggling starting pitchers on the hill, runs should come in bunches from the get-go.

German Marquez gets the nod for Colorado, and he's been hit hard all year. Marquez has allowed 72 hits in just 69.1 innings of work this year and the 4.5 runs/game he's allowed on average has been bumped up to 5.3/game over his last three starts.

Typically he doesn't last more than five innings as his control isn't the greatest, and for a White Sox lineup that has minimal experience against him, they should be patient early on and force him into the strikezone.

With the way Chicago's bats have been cashing in tallies, staying hot in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field shouldn't be a problem for them tonight. And if Chicago does want to pull off the upset, they know they are going to need plenty of runs with Derek Holland on the hill for their side.

Holland has really struggled the past month, but more importantly for our situation, he's got a 10-5 O/U record in his 15 starts this season. In two of Holland's last three starts the opposition has finished with 9+ runs as teams are tattooing the ball against him and this Colorado lineup is one of the better ones in the business.

Chicago is on a 8-0 O/U run in Holland's last eight starts away from home, and as a team they are 8-3-1 O/U in their last 12 vs. NL teams. Add in the 18-7-1 O/U run they are on after a day off, and the White Sox will do their part on both sides of the ball to ensure this game goes 'over.'

Finally, when you look at the betting percentages on VegasInsider.com, you'll see about a 70/30 split in favor of the 'under' right now. All of that 'under' action has pushed this total down a full run from it's opening number, as many are looking at Colorado's streak of nine straight games where they've failed to cash an 'over' ticket (0-8-1 O/U). The drop in the number – even at 11.5 – has presented much more value in this 'over' play, and it's not often you see a strong majority of bettors on an 'under' in a Colorado home game.

It's spots like that where the masses typically get burned, and I've got no problem going the other way.

Best Bet: Over 11.5

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (-200, 9)

The Reds are in the desert for the first time this season for their final series before the All-Star break and have to contend with a Diamondbacks team that is having its best first half in team history.

After winning just 69 games in 2016, the Diamondbacks are 52-34 in their first 84 games this season and they’ll be looking for No. 53 when they send ace Zack Greinke to the mound for the series opener versus the Reds.

Greinke is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.015 WHIP this season, but he has been close to lights out at Chase Field. There the Diamondbacks’ veteran right-hander is 8-0 with a 2.67 ERA and A 0.891 WHIP while racking up 82 strikeouts while surrendering just 12 walks.

Greinke goes up a Reds’ offense, which while powerful, has shown some inconsistencies of late and have score five or more runs in back-to-back games just once since the middle of June.

Tim Adleman gets the start for the much-maligned Reds’ pitching staff and while Adleman has not been great, he also hasn’t been the worst. The Reds’ right-hander is 5-5 with a 4.67 ERA with a 1.329 WHIP.

An interesting stat is Adleman’s day/night splits. He is much better in night games, going 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA with a 1.113 WHIP.

Plus the Under is 6-0 in Reds last six games overall, 7-3-1 in the Diamondbacks last 11 and 8-2-1 in Greinke’s last 11 starts overall.

Pick: Under 9.5

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-205, 9)

The National League-leading Dodgers host the surging Royals in a three-game set in their final series before the Mid-Summer Classic.

Los Angeles has the best record in the NL at 58-29 and leads Arizona by 5.5 games in the NL West thanks to their young and explosive offense and the majors best pitching staff.

The Dodgers rank fourth in runs scored and OPS thanks to the likes of youngsters Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, while the pitching staff ranks first in team ERA, WHIP and are second in strikeouts.

On Friday night, it will be Kenta Maeda taking making his second start after a stint on the DL and while he got a little roughed up in his first outing back, he has been much more comfortable on the mound at Dodger Stadium.

Maeda is 4-1 at home this season with a 3.27 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP with 39 strikeouts and just six walks.

He faces a Royals team that has been better, going 18-6 in their last 24 games, but still rank in the bottom third of the Bigs in runs, average and OPS.

The Royals counter with right-hander Jason Hammel, who has struggled in his first season with Kansas City. Hammel is 4-7 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.363 WHIP. On the road, he is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.732 WHIP.

Additionally, the Dodgers are not only great at home this season at 36-11, they’ve been winning by a good margin as they are 29-17 against the runline there. The Dodgers are also 5-0 in Maeda’s last five home starts.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0

Season To Date: 84-73-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (10-5, 1.94 ERA, $-11)

Another start another appearance for ‘Mad Max’ in the MLB line drive as the ’Streaking Starter’. This might not be a guaranteed win for the Nationals, but Scherzer has thrown eight straight quality starts and the Over has only cashed in two of those eight starts.

In his last three outings he’s allowed one earned run in total over 21 innings, .43 ERA, .43 WHIP, and has 29 strikeouts to go along with only four walks.

Scherzer and the Nationals are a chalky -280 at home tonight hosting the Braves. The total is currently sitting at 8.

Slumping: Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (5-8, 4.52 ERA, $-142)

There was a time when Derek Holland was a great pitcher in the majors, sadly injuries have ravaged his career and what’s left is a mediocre pitcher that can be counted on to eat up some innings on a rebuilding club. Eat up innings at home anyway, on the road lately is a different story.

His last three road starts have been a dumpster fire, 0-3, an ERA of 19.55, a WHIP of 3.5862, and has given up eight home runs. Eight home runs allowed in 9.2 innings of work. Not what you want to see leading up to a start at Coors Field.

Holland and the White Sox are +138 road dogs against the Rockies and the total is currently at 12.

Friday’s Top Trends:

The Chicago Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss. -135 today vs. Pirates.

The Atlanta Braves are 5-24 in the last 29 meetings in Washington. +223 at Nationals (Max Scherzer)

Over is 11-1 in Tampa Bay Rays last 12 home games. Red Sox/Rays Total: 8.5

Over is 8-0 in Derek Holland’s last 8 road starts. White Sox at Rockies Total: 12

The Seattle Mariners are 0-8 in their last 8 home games. -153 today vs. A’s

Weather To Keep An Eye On:

There is a chance of thunderstorms and a 50-60 percent chance of rain throughout the evening in Cleveland where the Indians are scheduled to host the Detroit Tigers. The Indians are -208 home chalk.

The most notable wind today will be a hitters wind at AT&T Park where the Giants will entertain the Miami Marlins tonight with a 15-17 mile per hour breeze blowing out towards left field. The total is currently set at 8.5. At Busch Stadium the Mets are in town to play the Cardinals and will be greeted with a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field. The total is currently at 7.5.

Our near daily Wrigley Field check shows a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field. The total is currently off the board.

Ump Of The Day:

Chad Whitson will be calling balls and strikes in Washington tonight and that is another obstacle for the Braves to overcome. Home teams are 12-2 (85.7 percent) with Whitson behind the plate so far in 2017. A blind $100 wager on the home team in all of Whitson's games in 2017 would have profited $968 thus far.

Dave's MLB Friday
By Dave Essler

Padres/Phillies: The market likes the Padres and at this point so do I. Richard has looked very good - and I could see correlating the Fathers with the over, assuming (I know) that San Diego gets four runs (they'll at least get 9 innings to do it), meaning it might be hard to lose both sides.

Braves/Nats: That rain delay was some BS last night. I think that STILL has an effect on the Braves (pissing them off) so I could take the over (because it's Max we get a better #) and it's Dickey - and perhaps the Braves RL as well.

Mets/Cardinals: I really hate to fade either of these pitchers right now. There was a time I thought Martinez threw too many pitches, so I could take the Mets if you made me, and lean under.

Reds/D-Backs: I wonder how that Arizona meltdown in LA last night affects them tonight. There's not a lot of travel, but it's the emotional thing in the bullpen. Greinke will do what he does, so I have a slight lean to the under, in which case I could see taking the Reds RL.

Astros/Jays: We got away with fading Houston last night and I'm not sure I want to tempt fate again. Morton and I have a history of being on different pages more often than not. I don't trust marginal pitchers coming off the DL, either, so Houston if you made me.

Tigers/Indians: The market certainly loves Carrasco, or hates Zimmerman, or both. I wouldn't lay -230 with Cleveland against anyone, and FWIW Carlos Santana is on paternity leave. It's actually the Tigers' bullpen that been over performing lately, so maybe I could get behind them with that extra +1.5, since a out 30% of all games are one-run games.

Red Sox/Rays: They really like Pomeranz and I do understand why, but it's hard to fade the Rays at home, especially after the confidence they gained from beating Sale last night. Not that they lacked confidence in the first place, so, at 9 I like the under and I do lean Rays RL.

Angels/Rangers: I didn't understand they market's early love of Nolasco and the Angels. In a big park Nolasco might get away with his fly balls, but this isn't a big park. Obviously we don't like the Rangers' pen, so perhaps we could take the over - I do think Texas/over is a split at worst because I don't see them not getting runs here. Gallo and Odor are questionable, so either wait, or know that the line will move when their status is confirmed.

Orioles/Twins: Know that there is no chance of taking Gausman as a favorite on the road against anyone. I don't care how good Jorge is or isn't, and without looking I could make the argument that without any familiarity the Orioles might take some time to know what he's doing, and with two marginal (at best) bullpens I think the market's move to the under might be incorrect.

A's/Mariners: It's hard to fade either pitcher but getting Manaea on the RL will be an easy call. As I've said repeatedly when a good pitcher (Paxton, in this case) gets hit it's almost always by a familiar opponent. And of course I don't think there will be tons of runs, either.

Brewers/Yankees: With neither pitcher being their teams ace, I think the instinctive thing many would assume is the over. I can't disagree given that the Brewers get a DH and their pen has been over performing for their ability (IMO, anyways) and the Yankees pen hasn't been good at all. But, needing 11 runs to win is perhaps a bit much for me. Guerra CAN be decent and neither team has seen much of either pitcher, so runs may be later rather than sooner. I may look at F5 under.

White Sox/Rockies: Taking the DH away from the White Sox might be all I need to take Colorado. A bit expensive for some people, but I do like Marquez quite a bit. Either way, there's no chance my money will be on Chicago tonight.

Royals/Dodgers: Toto, we're not in Kansas anymore. I know, it's really Missouri but WTH. Hammel has had some better outing lately, but again, take the DH away from the Royals and give Los Doyas the mojo from last night's win, and I can't make a case for the Royals.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Milwaukee (48-40) at New York Yankees (44-39)

Scheduled Rotation: Guerra (1-3) vs. Montgomery (6-4), Suter (1-1) vs. Severino (5-4), Nelson (7-4) vs. Tanaka (7-7)
Series Price: Yankees -250, Brewers +210

The Yankees are 25-15 at home, but they're playing extremely sluggish lately and have lost four of their last five. They're a large -250 favorite at Station Casinos to win the series, but these new-look Brewers are no joke. I think we've all been saying for the past two months that they're just warming up the first-place slot for the Cubs, but after a while you have to give the club credit for battling and winning games. They've won seven of their last eight, including a major statement win Thursday at Wrigley Field. They buried the Cubs 11-2 in a make-up game. I don't like their pitching, but they keep making it happen and their hot. Yankees are not. I'm betting Milwaukee to take two of three here and win the series.

Atlanta (41-43) at Washington (50-35)

Scheduled Rotation: Dickey (6-5) vs. Scherzer (10-5), Teheran (6-6) vs. Strasburg (9-2), Newcomb (1-3) vs. Ross (5-3)
Series Price: Nationals -310, Braves +255 (started Thursday)

Well, here you go Atlanta. It's a chance to make up some ground in the National League East where you sit 8.5 games back. But damn, this offense of the Nats leads the league in almost every category and feature not only the No. 1 hitter with Daniel Murphy (.341), but they also have No. 2 with Ryan Zimmerman (.330) and No. 4 with Bryce Harper (.324). There's no easy outs with this lineup and someone new, beyond those All-Stars, seem to step up nightly. The Braves have been beaten like a drum in this series losing 36 times in the last 51 meetings. But the quality play of the Braves lately has helped them be a good 'under' bet. They've gone 12-4-1 to the 'under' in their last 17. The Nats have gone 8-3 to the 'under' in their last 11. That might be the approach to this series over the weekend.

Detroit (38-46) at Cleveland (45-39)

Scheduled Rotation: Zimmermann (5-6) vs. Carrasco (9-3), Verlander (5-5) vs. Clevinger (4-3), Fulmer (8-6) vs. Kluber (7-3)
Series Price: Indians -300, Tigers +240

Cleveland is 19-23 at home this season and it's the starters that have been letting the club down. Those were the guys that made a World Series appearance happen last season. Fortunately, they still have the best bullpen in baseball and it's part of the reason why they are the best 'under' team in baseball. They don't allow garbage runs after the starters leave the game. On the other side, the Tigers are packing it in and reports of them shopping ace Jason Verlander proves that cause. They look like a team that doesn't care anymore. They've only won once in their last 10 games as an underdog. Carlos Carrasco starts Friday and the Indians have won eight of his last nine starts against Detroit. The Indians are the best 'under' team, but 27 of the last 33 meetings with the Tigers in Cleveland have gone 'over' the number.

White Sox (37-47) at Colorado (50-38)

Scheduled Rotation: Holland (5-8 ) vs. Marquez (5-4), Quintana (4-8 ) vs. Hoffman (5-1), Rodon (1-1) vs. Freeland (8-7)
Series Price: Rockies -250, White Sox +210

The White Sox are hot and Colorado is falling into the abyss. The Rockies have become a great 'under' team, especially lately as they've stayed 'under' in their last six games. Good pitching, light hitting, and the altitude hasn't seemed to matter much. The Sox, however, have been mashing the ball and have gone 'over' in their last six. The best bet of the weekend is probably betting the 'under' on Sunday with Denver native Kyle Freeland pitching. I've never seen a Rockies pitcher take to Coors Field elements like him and I think it's just because he's pitched in Denver his entire life. He's gone 14-2-1 to the 'under' in his 17 starts so far which makes him the best 'under' pitcher in baseball.

Kansas City (44-40) at LA Dodgers (58-29)

Scheduled Rotation: Hammel (4-7) vs. Maeda (6-4), Kennedy (3-6) vs. McCarthy (6-3), Duffy (5-4) vs. Kershaw (13-2)
Series Price: Dodgers -330, Royals +270

Who is hotter here? The Dodgers just come off recent sweeps of division foes in Colorado and Arizona and have won six of their last seven. Kansas City has been bashing the ball and find themselves only one game out of first-place in the American League Central after being 10 games behind last month. They've won four straight coming in and six of their seven as well. That revived Kansas City offense has helped them go 13-3 to the 'over' in their last 16 road games. Sunday's game can be almost automatically give to the Dodgers because Kershaw is starting -- they've won 16 of his 18 starts. But I think Saturday offers great value with Ian Kennedy who is throwing his best lately for the Royals. I think the series comes down to Friday's game and being able to get +260 on the Royals makes it a worthwhile proposition.