National League
Cubs @ Pirates
Arrieta is 1-2, 6.46 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Cubs are 8-1 in his road starts.
Liriano is 1-5, 8.15 in his last seven starts, with last three going over. Pirates lost his last four home starts.
Pirates won seven of last eight games, are 7-6 in home series openers- over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Cubs are 5-13 in last 18 games, 8-6 in road series openers. Over is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
Reds @ Marlins
Straily is 0-3, 8.57 in his last four starts (over 8-2 in his last 10). Cincinnati is 3-4 in his road starts this season.
Fernandez is 1-2, 4.91 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Marlins are 6-3 in his starts at home.
Reds lost 11 of last 15 games, are 4-10 in road series openers. Over is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Miami is 8-3 in its last 11 home games, 7-7 in home series openers. Nine of their last 12 games went over the total.
Nationals @ Mets
Strasburg is 6-0, 2.66 in his last eight starts; his last 12 starts went over. Washington is 5-1 in his road outings. .
Syndergaard is 3-1, 4.07 in his last four starts (over 6-0-1 in last seven). Mets are 6-3 in Syndergaard's home starts.
Washington lost three of last four games; over is 14-5 in their last 19 road games. Mets won nine of last ten home games, under is 12-6-2 in last 20 New York games.
Phillies @ Rockies
Velasquez is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; seven of his last nine went over. Phillies are 4-3 in his road starts.
Gray is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Colorado is 4-2 in his home starts. .
Philly won eight of its last ten games; over is 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Colorado lost seven of last nine games, over is 7-1 in last eight games at Coors Field. .
Padres @ Dodgers
Cashner is 1-4, 4.60 in his last six starts; Padres are 2-3 in his road starts. Three of his last four road starts went over.
Kazmir is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts (over 8-4 in last 12). Dodgers are 5-1 in his last six home starts.
Padres are 11-6 in last 17 games, over is 14-5-1 in their last 20 games. Los Angeles lost its last three games; nine of last eleven games at Dodger Stadium stayed under.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Corbin is 1-1, 6.35 in his last four starts (over 6-3 in last nine). Arizona is 6-3 in his road starts.
Samardzija is 0-1, 8.64 in his last three starts (over 7-1 in last eight). San Francisco is 4-2 in his home starts.
Arizona lost nine of last 11 games, is 9-4 in road series openers. Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Giants won five of last seven games, are 7-7 in home series openers. Six of last nine San Francisco home games went over.
American League
Angels @ Orioles
Shoemaker is 0-2, 4.00 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under. Angels lost his last four road outings.
Jimenez is 2-2, 8.04 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten went over. Baltimore won seven of his nine home starts.
Angels won their last three games, are 6-8 in road series openers. Over is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Baltimore lost five of last seven games; they're 8-6 in home series openers. Four of last five Oriole games went over the total.
Tigers @ Blue Jays
Pelfrey is 2-0, 3.86 in his last two starts; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12. Detroit is 2-6 in his road starts. .
Happ is 5-0, 3.77 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over. Blue Jays are 7-1in his home starts.
Tigers won seven of last ten games, over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Toronto is 16-6 in last 22 home games, three of last four Blue Jay games stayed under.
Rays @ Red Sox
Archer is 0-4, 4.26 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Rays are 3-6 in his road starts.
O'Sullivan is 2-0, 7.05 in three starts (over 3-0). Boston scored 33 runs in three games.
Tampa Bay lost 19 of last 22 games, is 5-8 in road series openers. Over is 10-6 in Rays' last 16 road games. Red Sox won five of last seven at home, are 8-7 in openers of home series. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Boston games.
New York @ Indians
Green is 1-1, 6.30 in his two starts (over 1-0-1). .
Kluber is 4-2, 3.79 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over. Indians are 3-4 in his home starts.
New York is 7-12 in its last 19 road games, eight of last ten Bronx road games went over total. Indians won 16 of last 20 games, five of last six Cleveland games went over.
Twins @ Rangers
Gibson is 2-0, 2.63 in his last two starts; four of his last six starts went over. Minnesota lost two of his three road starts.
Hamels is 4-1, 1.99 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Texas is 6-2 in his home starts. .
Minnesota won five of last six games but is 4-9 in last 13 road games, over is 21-9-2 in their last 32 road games. Rangers lost seven of last nine games, over is 5-0-1 in last six Texas games.
A's @ Astros
Mengden is 1-4, 3.77 in his five starts (under 3-2).
McHugh is 0-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under. Houston is 6-3 in his home starts.
A's lost six of last eight games, over is 7-3 in Oakland's last ten road games. Houston won 16 of its last 21 games, under is 11-3 in Astros' last 14 home games.
Mariners @ Royals
Iwakuma is 4-1, 5.17 in his last five starts (over is 10-3 in his last 13). Seattle is 5-4 in his road outings. .
Ventura is 2-3, 6.31 in his last five starts; six of his last seven went over. Royals are 6-1 in his home starts.
Mariners lost 10 games in row on road; nine of last 10 Seattle road games stayed under. . Royals lost five of last seven games; over is 11-7-1 in last 19 Kansas City home games.
Interleague
Braves @ White Sox
Wisler is 1-1, 3.55 in his last four starts; six of his last nine went over. Atlanta is 2-3 in his road starts.
Sale is 5-0, 4.11 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under. Pale Hose won seven of his nine home starts.
Atlanta lost four of its last five games, is 4-9 in first game of road series. Under is 10-1 in last 11 Atlanta road games. White Sox won five of last seven at home, are 8-6 in home series openers. Four of last five Chicago home games went over the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Chi-Pitt-- Arrieta 13-4; Liriano 7-9
Cin-Mia-- Straily 7-8; Fernandez 11-5
Wsh-NY-- Strasburg 14-1; Syndergaard 11-5
Phil-Col-- Velasquez 9-5; Gray 6-8
StL-Mil-- Wacha 9-8; Nelson 7-10 (0-6 last 6)
SD-LA-- Cashner 6-6; Kazmir 9-8
Az-SF-- Corbin 7-10; Samardzija 10-7
LA-Balt-- Shoemaker 4-12; Jimenez 8-8
Det-Tor-- Pelfrey 7-9; Happ 12-5 (5-0 last 5)
TB-Bos-- Archer 5-13; O'Sullivan 3-0
NY-Clev-- Green 1-1; Kluber 8-9
Min-Tex-- Gibson 4-5; Hamels 12-5
A's-Hst-- Mengden 1-4; McHugh 10-7
Sea-KC-- Iwakuma 10-7; Ventura 9-7
Atl-Chi-- Wisler 4-12; Sale 14-3
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Chi-Pitt-- Arrieta 3-17; Liriano 4-16
Cin-Mia-- Straily 3-15; Fernandez 4-16
Wsh-NY-- Strasburg 4-15; Syndergaard 4-16
Phil-Col-- Velasquez 3-13; Gray 5-14
StL-Mil-- Wacha 3-17; Nelson 4-17
SD-LA-- Cashner 3-11; Kazmir 9-17
Az-SF-- Corbin 7-17; Samardzija 3-17
LA-Balt-- Shoemaker 3-16; Jimenez 7-16
Det-Tor-- Pelfrey 8-16; Happ 4-17
TB-Bos-- Archer 8-18; O'Sullivan 0-3
NY-Clev-- Green 1-2; Kluber 5-17
Min-Tex-- Gibson 4-9; Hamels 3-17
A's-Hst-- Mengden 0-5; McHugh 8-17
Sea-KC-- Iwakuma 3-17; Ventura 5-16
Atl-Chi-- Wisler 8-16; Sale 5-17
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Blue Jays (8-2 last 10)
Toronto has gotten off to so-so starts the last two seasons, as the Blue Jays picked things up midway through 2015 en route to an appearance in the American League Championship Series. The Jays are turning things on at the right time heading into the All-Star break as they grabbed their sixth consecutive victory in Thursday’s 5-4 comeback triumph over the Tigers. Toronto plated 26 runs in its final two wins over Cleveland, followed by a sweep of Kansas City, then knocking off Detroit last night. Left-hander J.A. Happ takes the mound for Toronto tonight as the Jays own a spectacular 7-1 record when he pitches at Rogers Center.
Coldest team: Diamondbacks (2-9 last 11)
Arizona has certainly been one of the biggest disappointments through the first half of the season at 38-49, including a dreadful 15-32 record at home. The D-backs finished their recent homestand at 2-7, including dropping two of three to the Giants to start July. Arizona heads to San Francisco for a weekend series tonight as the D-backs have been better on the road with a 23-17 mark, including pulling off a four-game sweep of the Giants at AT&T Park in April. The good news for Arizona is the 11-6 record it owns on the road within the NL West this season.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, White Sox (14-2, 2.92 ERA)
After a bit of a rough stretch towards the end of May, Sale has rebounded nicely by winning five consecutive starts. The Chicago southpaw has struck out at least seven batters in each of his past five trips to the mound, while beating the Astros, Blue Jays, and Red Sox in his last three outings. The Sox own a 5-1 record in Sale’s six starts as a favorite of at least -160 this season, as Chicago is a hefty -300 favorite this evening against the Braves.
Coldest pitcher: Jake Arrieta, Cubs (12-3, 2.33 ERA)
What? How can you possibly place last season’s NL Cy Young winner in this category with these numbers? Arrieta has hit a rough spot of late, failing to last beyond the fifth inning in two of his past three starts, while allowing a total of nine earned runs in his previous two trips to the mound. The Cubs have struggled recently by losing seven of their past eight games, including three straight to the Reds and Braves. However, Chicago owns an 8-1 record against Pittsburgh this season, as the Cubs head to PNC Park tonight and Arrieta is responsible for three of those victories.
Biggest UNDER run: Braves (10-1 last 11 on road)
Atlanta pulled off a stunner as +230 underdogs at Chicago to edge the Cubs in extra innings last night, 4-3 in a make-up game at Wrigley Field. The Braves allowed three runs in the eighth inning before tying the game in the top of the ninth to force extras, but the contest still finished ‘under’ the total of 9½. Atlanta continues to be an ‘under’ machine on the highway, allowing three runs or less in seven of the past 10 games away from Turner Field. The Braves will have it tough against Chris Sale in Chicago tonight, but Atlanta has won its last three times as a road underdog of +200 or higher (+260 tonight).
Biggest OVER run: Rockies (7-1 last eight at home)
Colorado’s offense busted out in Thursday’s 11-2 rout of Philadelphia, scoring five runs in the seventh inning to eclipse the ‘over’ of 12½ at Coors Field. In seven of the past eight games played in Denver, the Rockies and their opponent have combined for at least 13 runs, even though Colorado owns a 4-4 record in this span. In six of the previous seven contests at Coors, Colorado’s offense has struck for at least nine runs, as the Rockies will be tested by Phillies’ right-hander Vince Velasquez tonight, who has allowed two earned runs in his last two starts.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Mets
New York and Washington went back and forth on Thursday night in the opener of their series at Citi Field as the Mets held on for a 9-7 victory. The Mets avenged a sweep by the Nationals in D.C. last week to pull within three games of first place in the NL East. It’s a battle of young heavyweight right-handers on the mound in tonight’s contest in Flushing, as Stephen Strasburg puts his 11-0 record on the line for Washington opposite Noah Syndergaard, who is shooting for his 10th victory. Syndergaard’s worst start of the season came against the Nationals on June 27, allowing five earned runs in three innings of an 11-4 loss. However, the Mets’ right-hander tossed seven shutout innings against Washington at Citi Field on May 17 to outduel Max Scherzer in a 2-0 triumph. Strasburg is 3-1 in his last four starts against New York, including a perfect 2-0 mark this season.
Betcha didn’t know: The Mariners have dropped 10 consecutive games away from Safeco Field following Thursday’s meltdown loss at Kansas City. Seattle led the defending champions, 3-0 in the eighth before the Royals scored two runs in that inning, followed by a walk-off hit from catcher Salvador Perez in the ninth inning. The M’s last won on the highway at Boston on June 17 behind Hisashi Iwakuma, who heads to the mound tonight for Seattle.
Biggest public favorite: White Sox (-300) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Mariners (+105) vs. Royals
Biggest line move: Astros (-145 to -155) vs. Athletics
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Washington at New York
The Washington Nationals and New York Mets get ready to duel again after the Mets held on for a 9-7 victory in the first of a four game set at Citi Field. The Mets showing spunk winning seven of their last eight are now three games back of N.L. East leading Nationals.
The Mets' send Noah Syndergaard to the bump carrying a 9-3 record, 2.41 ERA. In his last outing, the righthander tossed a 7.0 inning 1 run-gem in a 14-3 home win over Chicago giving the hurler a 5-1 mark, 6-3 team start record over 9 starts in front of the home audience. Prior to that, Syndergaard was tagged with a loss shelled for 5 runs over 3.0 innings in Mets 11-4 loss vs Washington. Mets are now 2-3 in Syndegaard's five life-time stats vs Nationals.
Stephen Strasburg will start for Washington. To say Stephen Strasburg (11-0, 2.71 ERA) has been dominant this season would be an understatement. That dominance is reflected by the fact he's allowed two or fewer runs in ten of his fifteen starts with a 123-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Such success has not been limited to this season, the Nationals have emerged triumphant in eighteen of nineteen Strasburg starts dating back to last season with the righthander giving up two or fewer runs in fourteen of the nineteen allowing an average 2.1 runs/game with a 167-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Expect Nationals to do what they usually do in this situation with Strasburg. And that's win. The Nationals are a perfect 8-0 with Strasburg after a team loss the previous effort. Additionally, Nationals are 2-0 this season vs Mets with their ace hurler, 11-0 in his last eleven facing a division opponent.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
Flying North
A team to keep an eye on both this weekend and in the second half of the season is Toronto. At this time last year, the Blue Jays were just a .500 team, but had a run differential that suggested they might take off. They did and finished 93-69 with a run differential of +224. This year, a similar pattern may emerge, but the bad news for their fellow contenders in the American League is that the Jays are already 10 games above the Mendoza Line. Their run differential (+65) is best in the division and trails only Cleveland in the league. They won their sixth straight game Thursday night, taking the series opener from Detroit. The Jays are one of only three A.L. teams to be at least four games above .500 both at home and on the road. Cleveland and Texas are the others.
There’s No Place Like ….The Road?
One of the more unusual dichotomies MLB bettors need to take note of from the first half is Arizona’s atypical home and road split. On the road, they’ve actually made backers a significant profit (+11.6 units), actually the second most in all of baseball (Giants). But at Chase Field they’ve been an unmitigated disaster, going 15-32, which works itself out to a net loss of -24.0 units, by far the worst in all of baseball. This weekend sees them visiting the division rival Giants. True to form, the Diamondbacks swept a (four-game!) series here back in April, but have since lost five of six to them at home. For not just this series, but in general, I’m interested to see if this unusual dichotomy continues. It’s definitely worth keeping track of.
What to Look Forward To
Teams that I expect to see their win percentage decline in the second half are: Kansas City, Texas and Philadelphia. The Royals, who close out the 1st half at home vs. Seattle, continue to be just awful on the road (16-30). Texas, whose 1st half concludes with a visit from Minnesota, leads MLB at the betting window (+26.3 units) as they did last year. But despite leading the AL in wins, they are just seventh in run differential (+27) and their 18-7 record in one-run games will be difficult to maintain. It’s a similar story in the City of Brotherly Love where half of the Phillies victories have come by a one-run margin! Their -91 run differential is worse than everybody in baseball besides Atlanta and Cincinnati.
Hitting Notes
San Diego might be baseball’s equivalent of Siberia (not talking weather here), but Wil Myers is a name I’ve mentioned before and he certainly deserves more attention than he’s probably getting. He hit 11 home runs in June and is entered in next week’s Home Run Derby. If interested in playing that event, Myers might be a good bet as it will be contested in his home park where he’s hit 13 of his 19 home runs this season.
Over the last week, the Mets have scored 55 runs, which is a much needed offense surge. They scored nine times in a big win Thursday against the first place Nationals, who they’ll continue to host this weekend. On a personal note, I’ll be at Sunday’s game at Citi Field!
Pitching Notes
More Padres! San Diego leads the pitching notes “portion of the program” as well thanks to Drew Pomeranz, who I made the mistake of going against Thursday night. He ended up tossing a two-hit shutout against the Dodgers, improving his WHIP to 1.07 (TSR only 9-8.). Pomeranz now has 26 strikeouts in his last 27 innings of work and leads the entire N.L. in opponent’s batting average. Because he’s on a bad team, you might be able to get some good prices on him moving forward. The Dodgers are certainly happy they won’t have to see him the rest of the weekend.
Boston’s Sean O’Sullivan toes the rubber for the Red Sox Friday night in Fenway against a bad Rays team. O’Sullivan has a 3-0 team start record so far, but is not deserving of it given a 6.46 ERA and 1.696 WHIP. Underdog opportunity? He’ll be opposed by Chris Archer, who you can get at a nice price.
Totals Trend
Remember that Arizona team I talked about earlier? They’ve also gone Over in seven straight and 11 of their last 13 games.
Cubs, Pirates square off
By Sportsbook.ag
CHICAGO CUBS (52-33) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (44-42)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Chicago -160, Pittsburgh +150, Total: 7.5
The Cubs will be looking to avoid losing their fourth straight game when they face the Pirates on Friday.
Chicago has really struggled recently, losing three straight games and seven of its past eight. One thing the team is really struggling to do is hit.
The Cubs have scored three or less runs in six of those games and the lineup will need to be a lot better than that moving forward. There is plenty of firepower on the team, so it’s unacceptable to be scoring that little.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are playing some of their best baseball of the season. They’re coming off of a 5-1 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, but they have still won 10 of their past 13 games.
Pittsburgh desperately needed to rattle off some victories in order to stay alive in the hunt for the postseason.
This game will feature some studs on the mound, as RHP Jake Arrieta (12-3, 2.33 ERA, 115 K) will be pitching for the Cubs and LHP Francisco Liriano (5-8, 5.34 ERA, 85 K) will be out there for the Pirates.
Chicago will be confident coming into this game, as the team is 8-1 against Pittsburgh on the year. The team is also lucky to have Arrieta on the mound and he is 22-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the past two seasons.
Liriano has been no slouch himself though, going 16-1 against the money line in the second half of the season over the past two seasons.
Jake Arrieta is set to be on the mound for the Cubs on Friday and he has not pitched very well recently. Over his past two starts, Arrieta has allowed nine earned runs on 12 hits in 10.1 innings of work. He has walked seven betters over those two games and must find a way to throw his pitches over the plate in this one.
Fortunately for Arrieta, he has dominated the Pirates on the season. In three outings against Pittsburgh, Arrieta has allowed just two earned runs over 21.0 innings of work. He has truck out 27 batters in those games as well, so he’ll be happy to be out there against this lineup on Friday.
Some guys worth keeping an eye on in the Cubs’ lineup are 2B Ben Zobrist (.290, 12 HR, 45 RBI) and 3B Kris Bryant (.277, 25 HR, 64 RBI).
Both players have had some success against Liriano in their careers, as Zobrist is 5-for-20 with six RBI against the lefty and Bryant is 4-for-9 with two doubles, a homer and four RBI in the matchup.
Bryant also happens to be playing very well coming into this one, as he has homered four times over the past eight games.
Francisco Liriano has had some trouble recently, allowing four or more earned runs in five of his past seven starts.
The lefty has also failed to pitch more than six innings in nine of his past 10 outings. If he cannot find his groove again soon then it’s going to be very difficult for the Pirates to get themselves back into playoff contention.
It also doesn’t help that Liriano has really struggled against the Cubs this season, going 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in two starts against the team.
He will need to keep his walks down on Friday, as he has walked nine batters in his two starts against Chicago on the year.
Offensively, Pittsburgh could use some production from both OF Matt Joyce (.299, 8 HR, 27 RBI) and OF Andrew McCutchen (.238, 12 HR, 32 RBI).
The two of them are a combined 16-for-51 with a homer and five RBI against Arrieta in their careers. They have also combined for five doubles and it’d be big if they can get some extra base hits in this one.
McCutchen has been a disappointment all year for Pittsburgh, but he can really give his team a boost by coming on strong in the second half of the season.