MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, June 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cubs @ Pirates
Butler is 3-2, 2.48 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3
Williams is 1-0, 4.09 in his last four starts (over 4-2-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1
Cubs are 1-10 in last 11 road games, 3-7 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. Pirates won four of last five games, are 5-6 in home series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Corbin is 1-2, 9.82 in his last three starts (over 3-0). He is 0-5, 10.44 on the road. Arizona’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1
Nola is 1-4, 4.34 in his last five starts (over 4-4). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-2
Arizona won seven of last eight games, is 7-3 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Phillies lost eight of last nine games; they’re 2-8 in home series openers. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
Dodgers @ Reds
Wood is 4-0, 0.94 in his last five starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. LA is 1-3 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2-1
Adleman is 2-0, 2.42 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Reds won his last four home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1
Dodgers won six of their last seven games, are 4-6 in road series openers (won last 3). LA’s last six games went over. Reds lost their last six games; they’re 5-2 in last seven home series openers. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.
Nationals @ Mets
Scherzer is 3-1, 1.69 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under. Washington is 5-2 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
Matz allowed one run in seven IP (98 PT) in his first ’17 start, in Atlanta. 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Washington lost five of its last seven games; their last four games went over. Mets won six of last nine games; their last three games went over.
Marlins @ Braves
Straily is 1-1, 4.58 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Miami is 2-4 in his road starts- they’re 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1
Newcomb allowed one run in 6.1 IP (96 PT) in his first MLB start, against the Mets. 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Marlins won five of last seven games; they’re 4-7 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Atlanta lost its last three home games; they’re 5-4 in home series openers. Four of their last five games went over.
Padres @ Brewers
Diaz threw two scoreless innings (46 PT) in his first start- this is a bullpen game. 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Guerra is 1-1, 2.81 in five starts this year (over 3-2). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1
San Diego won its last three games; they’re 2-8 in road series openers. Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Milwaukee won its last three games, is 5-6 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Giants @ Rockies
Samardzija is 1-3, 4.01 in his last four starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12. Giants are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-7-5
Senzatela is 1-1, 6.46 in his last three starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Colorado is 6-1 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-2
Giants are 4-12 in their last 16 games; over is 7-3-1 in their last ten games. Colorado lost three of last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home tilts.
American League
White Sox @ Blue Jays
Quintana is 0-3, 9.87 in his last four starts (over 3-1). White Sox are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-9-1
Biagini is 0-3, 3.60 in his last three starts (under 6-1). Toronto’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4
White Sox won three of last four games, are 3-9 in road series openers. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Toronto won three of its last four games, is 4-7 in home series openers. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
Rays @ Tigers
Ramirez is 0-1, 7.82 in his last three starts (over 4-2). Rays’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1
Norris is 1-2, 5.14 in his last five starts; under is 3-1-1 in his home starts. Detroit is 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-2
Rays won six of last nine games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Detroit lost six of last nine games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 games.
Mariners @ Rangers
Paxton is 3-1, 3.08 in his last five starts (under 5-3-1). Seattle’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2-2
Ross is making his first ’17 start (injury); he is 32-53, 3.64 in 102 big league starts- he got hurt in his first start last year. Ross was 2-1, 7.71 in four AAA rehab starts this season.
Seattle lost four of last six games, is 4-7 in road series openers. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Texas is off a 5-1 road trip but they’re 1-5 in last six home games, 6-5 in home series openers. Over is 9-1 in their last ten home games.
Red Sox @ Astros
Pomeranz is 3-1, 4.43 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Boston is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7
Fiers is 3-0, 2.45 in his last three starts; under is 3-2 in his home starts. Houston is 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Boston won five of last seven games; they’re 4-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Astros lost three of last four games, are 7-4 in home series openers. Under is 10-6-1 in their last 17 home games.
Indians @ Twins
Carrasco is 4-1, 4.54 in his last seven starts (under 9-3). Indians are 5-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-3-1
Turley allowed four runs in four IP (73 PT) in his first start. 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Indians are 4-7 in their last 11 games, are 1-6 in last seven road series openers. Under is 17-5 in their last 22 road games. Twins lost six of last eight home games; they’re 5-6 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home games.
New York @ A’s
Severino is 3-0, 1.35 in his last five starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. New York is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-3-1
Manaea is 5-0, 2.25 in his last five starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. A’s are 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-2
New York lost its last three games, all lost by the bullpen; six of their last seven games went over. Oakland lost six of its last eight games; over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games.
Royals @ Angels
Kennedy is 0-4, 9.59 in his last six starts; his last seven went over. Royals are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-8-2
Chavez is 1-1, 6.30 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his home starts. Angels are 4-2 in his home starts- their 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1
Royals won seven of last nine games; over is 9-1 in their last nine games. Angels are 3-5 in last eight home games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Interleague
Cardinals @ Orioles
Martinez is 2-1, 1.93 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under. Cardinals are 1-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2
Gausman is 1-2, 6.55 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Home team won his last nine starts. Orioles are 6-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8
Cardinals lost its last three games; they’re 2-7 in road series openers. Three of their last four games went over. Orioles are off a 1-7 road trip; they’re 10-1 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Chi-Pitt: Butler 3-3; Williams 5-2
Az-Phil: Corbin 7-6; Nola 3-5
LA-Cin: Wood 6-3; Adleman 5-5
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 8-5; Matz 1-0
Mia-Atl: Straily 6-7; Newcomb 0-1
SD-Mil: Diaz 0-1; Guerra 1-4
SF-Col: Samardzija 5-8; Senzatela 9-4
American League
Chi-Tor: Quintana 5-8; Biagini 3-4
TB-Det: Ramirez 5-1; Norris 6-6
Sea-Tex: Paxton 5-4; Ross 0-0
Bos-Hst: Pomeranz 7-5; Fiers 8-4
Clev-Min: Carrasco 9-3; Turley 0-1
NY-A’s: Severino 7-5; Manaea 6-5
KC-LA: Kennedy 3-8; Chavez 7-6
Interleague
StL-Balt: Martinez 7-6; Gausman 7-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Chi-Pitt: Butler 3-6; Williams 3-7
Az-Phil: Corbin 8-13; Nola 3-8
LA-Cin: Wood 1-9; Adleman 4-10
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 3-13; Matz 0-1
Mia-Atl: Straily 2-13; Newcomb 0-1
SD-Mil: Diaz 0-1; Guerra 0-5
SF-Col: Samardzija 6-13; Senzatela 5-13
American League
Chi-Tor: Quintana 3-13; Biagini 1-7
TB-Det: Ramirez 5-6; Norris 3-12
Sea-Tex: Paxton 1-9; Ross 0-0
Bos-Hst: Pomeranz 5-12; Fiers 6-12
Clev-Min: Carrasco 2-12; Turley 1-1
NY-A’s: Severino 2-12; Manaea 3-11
KC-LA: Kennedy 3-11; Chavez 1-13
Interleague
StL-Balt: Martinez 2-13; Gausman 4-10
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 36-20 AL, favorites -$36
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 73-55 AL, favorites -$665
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 34-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 75-52-3
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Marlins (12-5 last 17) at Braves
Miami hasn’t even reached the 30-win mark on the season, but the Fish are swimming upstream after racking up 19 runs in a two-game sweep of the Athletics. The Marlins’ bats are coming alive by scoring at least six runs in six of the past seven contests, while posting a combined 25 runs during a three-game winning streak last week against the Cubs and Pirates.
The Marlins travel to Atlanta for a weekend set with the slugging Braves, who put up double-digit runs in all three games of their recent series with the Nationals. Miami is making its first trip to SunTrust Park as Dan Straily takes the mound in the opener. Straily is winless in his last two starts against Chicago and Pittsburgh, but the right-hander beat the Braves in his previous start back in April as a -130 home favorite.
Coldest team: Reds (0-6 last six) vs. Dodgers
Cincinnati finished off an impressive four-game sweep of St. Louis earlier this month, but that winning streak came to an abrupt halt in California. The Reds dropped all three games to the Dodgers last weekend, including blowing a late 7-3 lead in a 9-7 defeat in the series finale. Cincinnati followed that effort by dropping all three games at San Diego, while scoring a total of seven runs against the Padres.
The Reds face the Dodgers once again, but at least Cincinnati gets Los Angeles at Great American Ballpark this weekend. Cincinnati has won 13 of its last 19 games at home, while owning a 4-0 record in Tim Adleman’s last four starts at GABP, including recent victories over the Yankees and Rockies.
Hottest pitcher: Sean Manaea, Athletics (6-3, 3.67 ERA)
Since allowing four earned runs to the Angels in his season debut, Manaea has been dealing at the Coliseum by giving up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four home outings. During this span, the Oakland southpaw has defeated Boston, Toronto, and Seattle at home, while not allowing a hit in five innings of work against Houston in mid-April. Manaea shoots for his second victory over the Yankees in less than three weeks after defeating New York as a +145 underdog in a 4-1 triumph on May 26.
Coldest pitcher: Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks (5-6, 5.38 ERA)
Arizona is rolling by winning seven of its last eight contests, including a mini two-game sweep of Detroit. The D-backs head to Philadelphia to continue an eight-game road swing, but their coldest road pitcher takes the mound in the opener. Corbin is fresh off a 15-3 rout over the Padres in his last time out, but Arizona owns a dreadful 0-5 mark in his five starts away from Chase Field this season. To make matters worse, Corbin has been tagged for 21 runs in his last three road outings, while not lasting past the fifth inning in any of those appearances.
Biggest OVER run: Royals (6-0 last six)
Playing out west has woken up the Kansas City bats as the Royals have eclipsed the OVER in all six games on their current trip in California. Kansas City won its fifth straight contest on Thursday by blasting Los Angeles, 7-2, while putting up at least seven runs during each game of this current hot streak. The Royals go for their seventh straight win in Game 2 of a road series tonight with Ian Kennedy taking the hill. Kennedy is seeking his first victory of the season as the Royals are riding a 6-0-1 mark to the OVER in his last seven outings.
Biggest UNDER run: Mariners (6-2 last eight)
Following a pair of games that resembled football scores against the Twins, Seattle finished UNDER the total in each of its final two games at Minnesota. In the series finale on Thursday, the Twins dropped five runs in the first inning on the M’s, but scored only once the rest of the way as the two teams went UNDER on a 10½ total. The Mariners head to Texas for the weekend as James Paxton makes his first road start since late April. The Seattle southpaw owns a 2.60 ERA on the road, but the M’s have hit the OVER in two of his three starts away from Safeco Field.
Matchup to watch: Red Sox vs. Astros
Two teams that have World Series aspirations in the American League hook up for an intriguing weekend series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros still own a double-digit game lead over the Angels in the AL West in spite of dropping six of their past nine contests following an 11-game winning streak.
The Red Sox took three of four from the hapless Phillies in an interleague set, but have lost three of their previous four road series openers. Drew Pomeranz got knocked around early in his last outing against Detroit by giving up three early runs in an 8-3 defeat last Sunday night. The Red Sox southpaw is unbeaten in his last two road starts with victories over the White Sox and Yankees, while allowing only two earned runs in the past 12 innings on the highway.
Mike Fiers counters for Houston, as the Astros are a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts. Fiers is coming off his best outing of the season by tossing 7.1 innings of two-hit ball in a 3-1 home victory over the Angels last Saturday. The Astros own a sterling 12-3 record this season in series openers coming off a win, while looking to avenge a 2-5 mark against the Red Sox from last season.
Betcha didn’t know: The Orioles return home from a disastrous 1-7 road swing to host the Cardinals in interleague play. Right-hander Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Baltimore in the opener as he is making his 15th start. The home/road splits are astounding for Gausman as the O’s are 6-1 in his seven starts at Camden Yards, but just 1-6 on the highway.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-180) at Reds
Biggest public underdog: Marlins (+100) at Braves
Biggest line move: Mariners (-122 to -140) at Rangers
Red Sox, Astros meet in Houston
By: StatFox.com
The Astros will be hoping to end their recent struggles with a victory over the Red Sox on Friday night.
The Red Sox are playing well heading into this one, as they have now won five of their past seven games. Boston did, however, lose 1-0 against Philadelphia on Thursday night. The Sox obviously need to be better offensively in this series, as they’re going up against an elite Astros offense. Houston is, however, struggling a bit right now. The Astros are coming off of a 13-2 victory over the Rangers on Wednesday, but they have lost two straight series heading into this one. They’ll hope to snap that streak, as they know that their lead in the division can go away quickly. The starters in this contest are set to be LHP Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48 ERA, 73 K) for Boston and RHP Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.29 ERA, 58 K) for Houston. One trend that favors the Red Sox in this one is the fact that the Astros are 33-44 against the money line after having lost two of their past three games over the past two seasons. Houston is, however, an impressive 26-10 against the money line when the line is -100 to -150 this season.
The Red Sox are looking to take the first game in this series, and they’ll need Drew Pomeranz to pitch well in order for that to happen. Pomeranz is coming off of one of his worst outings of the year, as he allowed five earned runs in only 4.1 innings of work against the Tigers on Jun. 11. He had, however, allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight appearances before that game. The Sox are hoping they can chalk that up as nothing more than a bad outing, as they’ll need the lefty to be back on his game on Friday. Offensively, SS Xander Bogaerts (.320 BA, 2 HR, 26 RBI) is going to need to come through for the Red Sox. Bogaerts had five hits in the two games before going 0-for-4 against the Phillies in a loss on Thursday, and it’s clear that him getting on base is crucial. Boston also needs OF Mookie Betts (.279 BA, 11 HR, 37 RBI) to produce more moving forward. Betts had two homers and three RBI in Wednesday’s win over Philadelphia, but he was just 1-for-4 with no RBI against the Phillies on Thursday. It’s important that Betts comes through with an RBI or two on Friday.
The Astros can really use a win on Friday, and Wednesday’s 13-2 victory will certainly have them feeling confident. And while Mike Fiers obviously wasn’t on the mound in that one, he’ll be confident when he takes the mound as well. Fiers has been excellent lately, as he has allowed just four earned runs in his past 18.1 innings of work. He has 20 strikeouts over his past three starts, and the Astros just need him to avoid making huge mistakes in this one. He has gone three straight games without allowing a homer, but he has given up 18 already this season. On offense, the production for the Astros can really come from anywhere. One guy that is worth keeping an eye on is OF Derek Fisher, though. Fisher was called up recently, and he is considered one of Houston’s top prospects. He certainly showed why in his debut, going 2-for-3 with a homer, two RBI, and two walks. It’d be huge for the Astros if he can keep it up moving forward.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+130, 7.5)
The Nationals struck first in their big four-game set this weekend in New York, topping the Mets 8-3 on Thursday night and hope to extend their lead in the National League West even further when they send ace Max Scherzer to the mound for Game 2.
The Nats currently lead the NL East by 9.5 games ahead of the second-place Mets and while Washington’s powerful offense has been a big reason for their huge division lead, Scherzer and the the starters have been giving that offense a chance to win almost every game (what the bullpen does with those chances is another story).
Washington leads the major leagues in quality starts with 43 and its Scherzer leading the way for the Nats with 11 in his 13 starts this season and it doesn’t stop there for the dominant right-hander.
Scherzer is actually on pace to have a better season than his Cy Young campaign from last year. Scherzer is 7-4, with a 2.36 ERA and has already racked up a jaw-dropping 124 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Plus, hitters are only batting .175 against him this year.
Now the Mets did get to Scherzer for eight combined runs in back-to-back starts back in mid-April, but he’s been light’s out in his last four starts. He’s pitched to a 1.13 ERA and a ridiculous 0.576 WHIP, while striking out 47 to just five walks.
The Mets offense can hit some dingers and Steven Matz has been great for them as well, but Scherzer has been scary-good and laser focused, while keeping the ball out of the bullpen’s hands for as long as possible. The value is too good here.
Pick: Nationals -140
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (-114, 8.5)
The Royals and Angels continue their four-game series in California in a matchup of two teams trying to claw themselves back into contention after slow starts.
Kansas City took the series opener 7-2 on Thursday night as their bats remained red-hot, as it was the fifth consecutive game scoring seven runs or more.
The Royals offense has really turned it around of late, while they rank 27th in runs per game at just 3.98, over the last 10 games they have plated 6.5 runs per game, with the Over going 8-1-1 in those contests and 7-0 in their last seven overall.
That lineup gets to go up against Jesse Chavez in Game 2 of the series and while the veteran right-hander has pitched better at home, he has mostly been inconsistent in 2017. Chavez is 5-6 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.326 WHIP.
The Royals counter with a pitcher who has been just as inconsistent in Ian Kennedy, whose second season in Kansas City has not gone as well as the first.
The right-hander is 0-6 this season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP over 11 starts and away from Kauffman Stadium the number get worse. He is 0-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in five road starts.
Kennedy faces a lineup that is obviously downgraded without Mike Trout, but have performed admirably, scoring 5.3 runs per game over the last 10 games.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 63-53-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (5-5, 2.95 ERA, $-109)
Despite a pedestrian 5-5 W/L record the Cardinals right-hander has been throwing fire all season. In his 13 starts this season he has thrown nine quality starts, all of those over his last 10 appearances. But this is streaking where what have you done for me lately is our motto.
“Little Pedro” took the mound last week and embarrassed the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, chucking a complete game four hitter, while striking out 11 and only walking one. Martinez and the Cardinals travel to Oriole Park at Camden Yards and are available as -122 road chalk against the Baltimore Orioles.
Slumping: Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-8, 5.30 ERA, $-258)
It’s been a rough few starts for the White Sox left-hander and while Quintana was an All-Star in 2016, the ChiSox ace has done nothing but destroy his trade value this season. Currently sitting at 207th on Covers Starting Pitcher Money board.
Quintana has been lit up in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs over his last 13 innings (7.62 ERA) and has a shameful opponents on base percentage of .385. He returns to the rubber tonight in Toronto as big +151 road underdogs against the Blue Jays.
Friday's Top Trends
* Cardinals are 0-9 in their last nine road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals -123 @ Orioles vs. righty Kevin Gausman.
* Under is 7-0 in Nationals last seven games vs. a left-handed starter. O/U: 7.5 vs. Mets lefty Steven Matz.
* Dodgers are 6-0 in Alex Wood's last 6 starts. Dodgers -170 @ Reds.
* Over is 7-0 in Royals last seven road games. O/U: 8.5 vs. Angels.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There are thunderstorms in the forecast at Camden Yards, 24 percent chance at first pitch escalating as high as 60 percent as the night progresses. The total is currently set at 9.
There is a chance of rain at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Phillies are hosting the Diamondbacks. There is a 34 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms before the game starts, which might delay first pitch. As the night goes on the rain should end and overcast skies remain. The total is currently at 9.
According to the forecast, there will be a nice pitchers wind (10-14 miles per hour) blowing in from right field tonight at Rangers Ballpark for the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The total is currently set at 10.
As usual, there will be a hitter’s wind of 11-13 miles per hour blowing straight out to center field at Oakland Coliseum for the matchup between the Yankees and Athletics. the total for this one is currently sitting at 8.
Ump Of The Day
Gary Cederstrom: Cederstrom will be behind the dish for tonight’s showdown at Coors Field as the Rockies host the Giants and that’s a promising sign for hitters as he has been one of MLB’s top OVER umpires so far this season.
In the 12 games he has been calling balls and strikes the OVER has cashed nine times (75 percent) and 4-0 when the total is above nine. The total for today is currently at 11. If this wasn’t enough bad news for Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, Colorado is 0-6 in their last six games Cederstrom has been behind the plate.