MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, June 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Lynn is 0-2, 4.26 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Cardinals are 3-3 in his road starts.
Lackey is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts (over 7-3). Cubs are 2-3 in his home starts.
Cardinals are 5-9 in last 14 games but won last two; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Chicago lost its last six games; they’re 2-6 in home series openers. Over is 16-3 in last 19 games at Wrigley Field.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Corbin is 1-1, 7.88 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. He is 0-4, 10.35 in four road outings.
Urena is 3-2, 4.23 in five starts this year (over 3-2).
Arizona is 13-4 in its last 17 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Miami won five of last seven games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.
Giants @ Phillies
Blach is 3-0, 2.49 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
Eickhoff is 0-4, 6.82 in his last six starts; Phillies are 2-3, under is 3-2 in his home starts.
Giants lost seven of last nine games, are 4-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Phillies lost lost 10 of last 12 games, are 2-6 in home series openers. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.
Pirates @ Mets
Cole is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts (under 9-2). Pirates are 1-5 in his road starts.
Harvey is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Mets split his four home starts.
Pirates lost four of last six games, are 2-7 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Mets lost four of last six home games but won last five home series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four home games.
Braves @ Reds
Foltynewicz is 3-3, 6.39 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Atlanta is 1-4 in his road starts.
Arroyo is 0-2, 8.22 in his last three starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Reds are 3-2 in his home starts.
Braves lost four of last five games, are 6-1 in last seven road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Cincinnati lost its last three games, is 4-5 in home series openers. Over is 9-4 in their last thirteen home games.
Dodgers @ Brewers
Kershaw is 3-0, 2.08 in his last five starts, 4-0, 1.27 in his last four road outings. Under is 3-2 in his road starts.
Nelson is 2-1, 2.60 in his last five starts; Brewers are 2-4 in his home starts. Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Dodgers are 5-2 in last seven games but lost last two; they’re 2-6 in road series openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Milwaukee won four of last six games; they’re 5-4 in home series openers. Over is 18-6 in last 24 games at Miller Park.
Rockies @ Padres
Marquez is 4-0, 1.46 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Richard is 1-3, 4.36 in his last five starts; Padres are 2-3 in his home outings. Under is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
Rockies lost three of last four games, are 5-4 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. San Diego won its last four games, is 6-3 in home series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
American League
New York @ Toronto
Pineda is 3-1, 4.32 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. New York is 3-1 in his road starts.
Liriano is 1-1, 7.31 in his last four starts (under 4-3); this is his first start since May 10.
New York is 7-4 in its last 11 games; over 3-0 in last three Bronx games. Blue Jays won eight of last ten games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.
Red Sox @ Orioles
Porcello is 1-2, 5.68 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Boston is 3-1 in his road starts.
Asher is 0-2, 6.28 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
Boston won eight of last 11 games; under is 5-2-1 in last eight Red Sox games. Baltimore lost eight of its last 11 games; last three Oriole games went over.
White Sox @ Tigers
Holland is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. White Sox are 4-2 in his road outings.
Fulmer is 3-2, 2.68 in his last five starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. Detroit is 3-1 in his home starts.
White Sox are 3-10 in last 13 road games, 2-7 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Detroit is 4-8 in its last 12 games, 5-2 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.
Astros @ Rangers
Keuchel is 3-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; Astros are 5-0 in his road starts. Over is 3-2 in his road starts.
Darvish is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Texas is 4-3 in his home starts.
Astros won their last seven games, are 7-1 in road series openers. Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight road games. Texas lost seven of last nine games, is 5-4 in home series openers. Last five Texas home games went over.
Indians @ Royals
Tomlin is 1-3, 4.56 in his last four starts (over 6-4). Indians split his four road starts.
Vargas is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three starts (under 8-2). Royals are 3-2 in his home starts.
Indians won four of last five games, is 1-4 in last five road series openers. Under is 14-3 in their last 17 road games. Royals lost three of last four games; they’re 4-5 in home series openers. Under is 7-2 in their home series openers.
Twins @ Angels
Gibson is 1-4, 8.81 in his last seven starts; his last five went over. Minnesota is 2-1 in his road starts.
Ramirez is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts (under 7-2). Angels are 3-1 in his home starts.
Minnesota lost five of last seven games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Angels won five of last seven home games; four of Halos’ last six home games went over.
Rays @ Mariners
Odorizzi is 1-1, 3.42 in his last four starts (under 7-2). Rays split his four road starts.
In his last three starts, Bergman allowed 0-10-0 runs; go figure. Under is 3-1 in his starts.
Tampa Bay won six of last eight games; they’re 6-3 in road series openers. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Seattle won four of last five games; they’re 6-2 in home series openers. Over is 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
Interleague
Nationals @ A’s
Strasburg is 3-0, 2.18 in his last three starts (under 7-3). Washington is 5-0 in his road starts.
Triggs is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts; A’s split his six home outings. Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Washington won eight of last ten games; they’re 6-3 in road series openers. Four of their last five road games stayed under. A’s are 15-10 at home, but are off a 2-5 road trip. Oakland is 4-4 in home series openers. Over is 9-4 in A’s last 13 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Chi: Lynn 5-5; Lackey 5-5
Az-Mia: Corbin 6-5; Urena 3-2
SF-Phil: Blach 3-4; Eickhoff 2-8
Pitt-NY: Cole 5-6; Harvey 4-6
Atl-Cin: Foltynewicz 3-6; Arroyo 5-5
LA-Mil: Kershaw 9-2; Nelson 4-6
Col-SD: Marquez 4-3; Richard 4-7
American League
NY-Tor: Pineda 8-2; Liriano 4-3
Bos-Balt: Porcello 5-6; Asher 0-3
Chi-Det: Holland 5-5; Fulmer 6-4
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 9-1; Darvish 7-4
Clev-KC: Tomlin 4-6; Vargas 6-4
Minn-LA: Gibson 3-5; Ramirez 6-3
TB-Sea: Odorizzi 2-5; Bergman 2-2
Interleague
Wsh-A’s: Strasburg 8-2; Triggs 6-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Chi: Lynn 4-10; Lackey 6-10
Az-Mia: Corbin 6-11; Urena 1-5
SF-Phil: Blach 1-7; Eickhoff 3-10
Pitt-NY: Cole 2-11; Harvey 4-10
Atl-Cin: Foltynewicz 1-9; Arroyo 5-10
LA-Mil: Kershaw 4-11; Nelson 2-10
Col-SD: Marquez 2-7; Richard 2-11
American League
NY-Tor: Pineda 4-10; Liriano 2-7
Bos-Balt: Porcello 2-11; Asher 0-3
Chi-Det: Holland 2-10; Fulmer 4-10
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 2-10; Darvish 2-11
Clev-KC: Tomlin 4-10; Vargas 2-10
Minn-LA: Gibson 2-8; Ramirez 7-9
TB-Sea: Odorizzi 0-7; Bergman 0-4
Interleague
Wsh-A’s: Strasburg 1-10; Triggs 4-10
Interleague
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 29-14 AL, favorites +$60
AL @ NL– 28-25 AL, favorites +$202
Total: 57-39 AL, favorites +$262
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 23-23-1
AL @ NL: Over 31-19-1
Total: Over 54-42-2
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Astros (9-1 last 10) vs. Rangers
Houston is starting to run away with the AL West title as June is underway. The Astros pulled off a three-game road sweep of the Twins, which included a pair of wins in which they scored 16 and 17 runs. Houston bounced back nicely from a three-game sweep at the hands of Cleveland two weeks ago by winning nine of the past 10 games, as the Astros head into their series opener at Texas with an incredible 13-1 record in the past 14 Game 1’s of a series.
Dallas Keuchel looks to stay perfect on Friday as the 2015 Cy Young winner owns a sparkling 8-0 record and 1.81 ERA for Houston. The Astros have won all five of Keuchel’s road starts this season, but lost each of his two outings in Arlington last season. Houston faces Yu Darvish in the opener, as the Rangers have compiled a 6-1 record in his past seven trips to the mound.
Coldest team: Cubs (0-6 last six) vs. Cardinals
Chicago must be thrilled to leave the state of California after getting swept in consecutive series by the Dodgers and Padres. How bad was it losing three times at San Diego? The Cubs were listed as -200 favorites or above in two of those defeats, while scoring a total of five runs in that series. The defending champions sit at 25-27, as the Cubs didn’t lose their 27th game last season until June 30.
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field to face the rival Cardinals, who won the final two games of their series against the Dodgers. Former Cardinal John Lackey looks to rebound following a pair of losses to the Giants and Dodgers his last two starts, while allowing 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Lackey is winless in two home outings against St. Louis since joining Chicago prior to last season.
Hottest pitcher: Ty Blach, Giants (3-2, 3.83 ERA)
The top southpaw in the San Francisco rotation is sidelined (Madison Bumgarner), but Blach is turning into the standout left-hander. Blach has tossed at least seven innings in each of his last four starts, while pitching into the eighth inning in last Saturday’s win over the Braves. For the exception of a horrible outing at Cincinnati in early May in which he allowed 10 runs in three innings, Blach has given up two earned runs or fewer in five starts. The Giants travel to Philadelphia to face a Phillies’ squad that has lost 17 of their last 21 games.
Coldest pitcher: Bronson Arroyo, Reds (3-4, 6.62 ERA)
Cincinnati went through a stretch from mid-April through mid-May in which it won five straight starts made by Arroyo. However, things have gone backwards of late for the 40-year old, who has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings of work, while Cincinnati is 0-3 in this stretch. Arroyo takes the mound on Friday against the Braves, who are on the last leg of a three-city road trip after dropping two of three to the Angels.
Biggest OVER run: Rays (4-0 last four)
Tampa Bay is coming off an exciting series against Texas, as the Rays captured two of three in Arlington. The Rays and Rangers managed to combine for 18, 14, and 14 runs, as Tampa Bay and its opponent has now combined for at least 14 runs in four straight games.
Tampa Bay continues its road swing in Seattle against a Mariners’ squad that scored 26 runs during a four-game winning streak prior to Thursday’s 6-3 loss to Colorado. The OVER streak may be in jeopardy with Jake Odorizzi taking the mound on Friday as the Rays are 7-2 to the UNDER in his nine starts this season, including a 3-1 UNDER mark away from Tropicana Field.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (6-2 last eight)
Oakland returns to the Bay Area after getting shut out at Cleveland on Thursday afternoon, 8-0. That contest barely finished UNDER the total of 8½, as three of four games went UNDER against the Indians. The A’s have scored four runs or less in each of the last four contests to help contribute to this UNDER run, while facing Nationals’ ace Stephen Strasburg in the interleague series opener. Strasburg is 7-2-1 to the UNDER in 10 starts this season, but Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has cashed the OVER in his last three outings.
Matchup to Watch: Dodgers vs. Brewers
Normally, this feature wouldn’t spotlight a game with a +200 home underdog. But, Milwaukee has played better of late by winning four of its previous six games to retain first place in the NL Central. The Brewers have a tall task this weekend by hosting the surging Dodgers at Miller Park, starting with a matchup against Cy Young favorite Clayton Kershaw.
Although Los Angeles dropped the final two games at St. Louis, the Dodgers pulled with one half-game of the Rockies for first place in the NL West by winning 11 of their last 15 contests. Kershaw is coming off his worst start of the season against the Cubs by allowing 11 hits and four earned runs in 4.1 innings of work, but Los Angeles outslugged Chicago, 9-4. Kershaw is perfect in his last four road starts, while yielding a total of four earned runs in those victories.
The Brewers dropped five of seven meetings with the Dodgers last season, while missing out on Kershaw in those games. Jimmy Nelson takes the mound in the series opener for Milwaukee, as he struck out a season-high 10 batters in seven innings in a 9-5 victory over Arizona his last time out. Milwaukee owns a 2-4 record in Nelson’s six home starts this season, but one of those wins came as a +165 underdog against the Cubs in April.
Betcha didn’t know: Josh Tomlin has dominated the Royals recently as Cleveland visits Kansas City. Tomlin tossed a complete-game in last Sunday’s 10-1 rout of the Royals, as the Indians improved their mark to 6-2 in his previous eight starts against Kansas City since the beginning of 2016.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-230) at Brewers
Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+100) at Mets
Biggest line move: Red Sox (-125 to -135) at Orioles
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Houston (38-16) at Texas (26-28)
Scheduled rotation: Keuchel (8-0) vs. Darvish (5-3), McCullers (6-1) vs. Cashner (2-4), Peacock (2-0) vs. Perez (2-5)
Series price: Astros -155, Rangers +135
Man, these Houston Astros sure have a World Series look about them.
They have the best record in baseball (38-16), the best team batting average (.277), the most runs scored and their +1.7 average margin of victory is also tops. It's the best 54-game start in club history. Best of all, they lead the majors with +17.4 units of profit for bettors. They're riding a seven-game win streak and bring their amazing show to Arlington to face to sliding Rangers.
Station Casinos has posted the Astros as -155 favorites, a number that appears to be 20 cents cheap based on the way both clubs are currently playing with Houston also getting its ace starting on Friday. Texas has lost eight of its last 11 and are two games under .500 while being 12 games behind Houston in the AL West.
Last season the Astros finished 11 games behind the Rangers and it was the Rangers who created that distance by winning 15 of the 19 meetings. Houston won three of the first four meetings this season, but Texas has been beating Houston like a drum with regularity since the Astros joined the AL West in 2013. Before this season, Texas won 73 of the previous 100 meetings, including 40 of 53 at Arlington.
The tables have certainly turned in the Lone Star state rivalry and the Astros look to be in good shape to win their first division title since 2001 when they were in the NL Central. A win in Friday's game will take them 23 games over .500, the most since 2005 when they made their only World series visit.
Something to take note of right out of the gate in this series is Friday's match-up with the AL's top Cy Young contender Dallas Keuchel (8-0, 1.81 ERA) facing Yu Darvish (5-3, 2.97). Houston doesn't mess around when they start off a series and have won the first game 14 of 17 times. In Game 3, they have gone 11-4.
Look for Houston to keep rolling and take this series.
Here's a look at a couple of other series that start on Friday that I have some interest in:
L.A. Dodgers (33-22) at Milwaukee (29-25)
Scheduled rotation: Kershaw (7-2) vs. Nelson (3-3), Hill (2-2) vs. Garza (2-2), Maeda (4-2) vs. Davies (5-3)
Series price: Dodgers -220, Brewers +180
It was just a few days ago I was talking about the Dodgers taking over their rightful claim to the NL West and the Brewers fading away as the Cubs were finally back in first-place in the NL Central. Now, it's the Dodgers a half-game behind the Rockies and Diamondbacks and the Brewers 1.5 games over St. Louis and three games up on the Cubs who have lost six straight heading into Friday's game against the Cardinals. There's a lot to like about the Brewers, beginning with +9.6 units of profit. They're also a reliable Over team at 31-21-2 with an average score of 5.0 to 4.5. Something to think about Friday is that the Brewers have beat Clayton Kershaw the past two meetings. Saturday's game backing Rich Hill against Matt Garza looks like the best bet of the series.
Colorado (34-22) at San Diego (22-33)
Scheduled rotation: Marquez (4-2) vs. Richard (3-6), Chatwood (4-7) vs. Chacin (4-4), Anderson (3-5) vs. Cosart (0-1)
Series price: Rockies -150, Padres +130
Colorado is an NL-best 19-9 on the road and back in first-place, but the Padres are puffing their chests out a little more after sweeping the world champion Cubs during the week. The Rockies fell out of first-place with a three-game losing streak at Seattle which ended Thursday behind rookie Kyle Freeland. It was only the fourth time in 17 series this season that the Rockies didn't jump out with a win in Game 1. They've been getting on it and staying on it all season. They're not going away. It's June and they're in first. The Padres have won four straight with great pitching and have stayed Under the total in seven straight. During the Under streak, San Diego pitchers have held opponents to 2.7 runs and a .206 batting average. Before thinking about betting against the Padres, think about the guy at a CG Technology sports book in Las Vegas who bet $460,000 on the Cubs to win on Wednesday. No way the Padres can sweep the Cubs, right? Padres won 2-1.
Cleveland (28-24) at Kansas City (22-30)
Scheduled rotation: Tomlin (3-6) vs. Vargas (6-3), Carrasco (5-2) vs. Hammel (1-6), Bauer (5-4) vs. Skoglund (1-0)
Series price: Indians -155, Royals +135
Kansas City took two of three last weekend at Cleveland, but they still have the worst record in the American League. The name of the game is scoring runs and nobody does it worse than Kansas City in the AL with 3.4 runs a game (Giants are MLB-worst at 3.3). Last season, the Indians went 14-5 against KC. These are the only two teams in baseball cashing better than 60 percent on the Under wagers. Cleveland leads the way at 62 percent (31-19-2) and Kansas City is right at 60 percent (30-20-2). Four of the six meetings have stayed Under this season and the Royals have stayed Under in 17 of its last 24 home games. That seems like a good theme to follow this weekend.