National League
Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Bradley is 2-0, 6.11 in his three starts (over 3-0); Arizona scored 25 runs for him.
Lackey is 2-1, 2.06 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Arizona lost seven of last ten games; 12 of its last 13 games went over the total. Cubs won 13 of last 17 home games; four of their last six games stayed under.
Brewers @ Phillies
Nelson is 1-1, 1.57 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1).
Velasquez is 0-1, 10.38 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over. .
Milwaukee won seven of its last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Philly lost 11 of last 13 games; seven of its last nine home games stayed under.
Mets @ Marlins
Syndergaard is 3-0, 1.11 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Koehler is 1-2, 4.26 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Mets lost four of their last five games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Miami won four of its last five games; four of its last five home tilts stayed under.
Nationals @ Reds
Gonzalez is 0-2, 12.10 in his last two starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five.
Finnegan is 0-3, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last eleven.
Washington won seven of its last eight home games. Cincinnati won three of its last four games; over is 12-4-2 in their last 18.
Giants @ Cardinals
Cueto is 4-0, 1.45 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Wainwright is 5-0, 5.10 in his last seven starts (over 5-2); Cardinals scored 54 runs in those seven games
Giants won 16 of their last 20 games; four of their last five went over. St Louis is 5-6 in its last 11 games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Braves @ Dodgers
Teheran is 1-2, 2.00 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Maeda is 1-2, 5.68 in his last four starts, which all went over.
Atlanta won four of last six games; four of their last five went over. Dodgers won seven of last ten games; their last three games stayed under.
Rockies @ Padres
Rusin is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three starts (under 3-2).
Pomeranz 2-2, 2.48 in his last five starts; five of his last six starts stayed under.
Colorado lost eight of its last 11 games (over 9-2). Padres lost nine of last 11 games; eight of their last nine games went over.
American League
Bronx @ Orioles
Eovaldi is 6-0, 2.72 in his last seven starts; his last three stayed under. .
Tillman is 6-0, 2.31 in his last seven starts; seven of his last eight stayed under.
Baltimore are 8-5 in last 13 home games; over is 5-1-1 in its last seven games. Bronx is 3-6 in its last nine games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven.
White Sox @ Tigers
Rodon is 1-0, 3.06 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Zimmerman is 2-2, 5.33 in his last four starts (under 5-4)
Chicago lost seven of its last nine games; over is 13-3 in its last 16 road games. Detroit lost five of its last six games; four of its last five stayed under.
Royals @ Indians
Volquez is 1-1, 5.33 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Salazar is 3-1, 2.37 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1).
Royals won 10 of last 13 games; over is 9-0-1 in their last ten. Cleveland is 6-4 in its last ten games; 12 of their last 13 home games went over the total.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Dickey is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; six of his last nine stayed under.
Price is 3-0, 2.77 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight.
Toronto won seven of its last eight games; under is 5-2 in its last seven road games. Red Sox are 13-3 in last 16 home games; over is 16-5-2 in their last 23 games overall.
Rays @ Twins
Odorizzi is 2-1, 2.12 in his last three starts (under 8-3).
Nolasco is 1-3, 8.39 in his last five starts; his last nine starts went over.
Rays lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 12-1-1 in their last 14 road games. Twins lost 11 of their last 17 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Mariners @ Rangers
Walker is 0-5, 7.36 in his last six starts (under 7-3).
Darvish allowed one run in five IP (81 PT) in his first '16 start.
Seattle is 15-5 in its last 20 road games; its last nine games went over. Rangers won 10 of last 13 games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven.
A's @ Astros
Hahn is 2-2, 4.45 in his five starts; his last three starts went over. .
Fister is 3-0, 3.32 in his last six starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. .
Oakland won its last five games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Astros won eight of their last ten games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games
Interleague
Angels @ Pirates
Weaver is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts (over 5-5).
Liriano is 1-3, 6.17 in his last four starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Angels are 12-7 in their last 19 games; six of their last nine games stayed under total. Pirates lost five of last six games; five of their last six road games stayed under.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Az-Chi-- Bradley 3-0; Lackey 6-4
Mil-Phil-- Nelson 7-4; Velasquez 6-4
NY-Mia-- Syndergaard 6-4; Koehler 3-7
Wsh-Cin-- Gonzalez 5-5; Finnegan 2-9
SF-StL-- Cueto 10-1; Wainwright 8-3
Atl-LA-- Teheran 2-9; Maeda 5-5
Col-SD-- Rusin 2-3; Pomeranz 4-6
NY-Balt-- Eovaldi 7-3; Tillman 9-2
Chi-Det-- Rodon 3-7; Zimmerman 7-2
KC-Cle-- Volquez 7-4; Salazar 5-5
Tor-Bos-- Dickey 2-9; Price 8-3
Sea-Tex-- Walker 4-6; Darvish 1-0
A's-Hst-- Hahn 3-2; Fister 7-3
TB-Min-- Odorizzi 5-6; Nolasco 4-6
LAA-Pitt-- Weaver 4-6; Liriano 6-4
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Az-Chi-- Bradley 1-3; Lackey 3-10
Mil-Phil-- Nelson 3-11; Velasquez 3-10
NY-Mia-- Syndergaard 2-10; Koehler 4-10
Wsh-Cin-- Gonzalez 0-10; Finnegan 3-11
SF-StL-- Cueto 3-10; Wainwright 3-11
Atl-LA-- Teheran 2-11; Maeda 0-10
Col-SD-- Rusin 1-5; Pomeranz 1-10
NY-Balt-- Eovaldi 2-10; Tillman 2-11
Chi-Det-- Rodon 3-10; Zimmerman 1-9
KC-Cle-- Volquez 2-11; Salazar 1-10
Tor-Bos-- Dickey 3-11; Price 3-11
Sea-Tex-- Walker 1-10; Darvish 0-1
A's-Hst-- Hahn 0-5; Fister 3-10
TB-Min-- Odorizzi 2-11; Nolasco 6-10
LAA-Pitt-- Weaver 3-10; Liriano 2-10
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Toronto at Boston
The opening matchup of a three game series is Friday’s baseball betting focus as the Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. According to the current betting odds the Red Sox enter this contest as -$1.75 to -$1.80 home favorites depending on local, with the run total set at 9.0 across all shops.
Lefthander David Price will toe the rubber for John Farrell’s squad, bringing a 7-1 record to the hill with a 5.11 ERA. Price has enjoyed great success in his career against Toronto posting a 17-2 record over 22 starts with his teams (Bos/Det/TB) 20-2 in those contests. Price will be matching pitches with Toronto’s R.A. Dickey, who has 2-6 record this season with a 4.64 ERA. In contrast, Red Sox have been an obstacle for Dickey. Since arriving in Toronto the knuckelballer is 0-5 vs Boston with Jays 2-7 in his nine starts. Matching that horrid record, the Jays are on a 1-7 skid vs a team with winning record handing the ball to Dickey.
This being the opening game at home is yet another nod towards Boston, since the team has compiled a 12-5 record the past seventeen as home chalk opening a series at Fenway following a road swing. Additionally, Red Sox have made a habit of winning at home of late hosting a division opponent. The last eight as chalk vs a division foes the resulted has been six wins, two losses.
As always, a higher price on a game is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case, the numbers add up well enough to conclude Boston is the right choice.
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Astros (8-3 last 11)
Houston couldn’t pull off the four-game sweep of Arizona after getting blanked on Thursday, 3-0, but the Astros have gotten things together following a poor start. The Astros sit at 25-30 entering Friday’s action after beginning the season at 5-16. Houston’s hot streak started after getting swept by rival Texas at home two weeks ago, as the Astros swept the Orioles before capturing series against the Angels and Diamondbacks. Doug Fister takes the mound for Houston tonight against Oakland, as the Astros have won six straight starts made by the right-hander.
Coldest team: Rays, Phillies (2-9 last 11)
The two teams that hooked up for the 2008 World Series have hit the skids recently as it was too tough to just isolate one of these squads. Philadelphia turned heads to begin the season, but the Phillies are the team we thought they were as they have dropped seven straight games following Thursday’s 4-1 home setback to the Brewers. To make matters worse, the Phillies are 1-6 in their last seven home games, while scoring two runs or less in five of those defeats.
Tampa Bay has lost the first four games of its road trip after falling at Minnesota last night, the team with the worst record in the American League. In each of the past four losses, the Rays have allowed at least six runs, cashing the ‘over’ each time. Tampa Bay has stumbled to a 1-7 record in its past eight games away from Tropicana Field, but the Rays should take solace in Jake Odorzzi taking the mound tonight as Tampa Bay has won his last four road outings.
Hottest pitcher: Johnny Cueto, Giants (8-1, 2.31 ERA)
The Cy Young race in the National League is going to be exciting with Chicago’s Jake Arrieta and Los Angeles southpaw Clayton Kershaw as the two favorites. Cueto is thriving in his first season with San Francisco as he seeks consideration as the NL’s top pitcher, winning four straight starts, which includes a pair of complete game victories over the Padres. The Giants are 6-0 in Cueto’s six starts away from AT&T Park, but the right-hander is winless in his last three starts at Busch Stadium since 2012.
Coldest pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (4-4, 5.40 ERA)
Los Angeles travels to the East Coast to begin an interleague series with Pittsburgh following a 3-3 homestand. Weaver has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four outings, while getting knocked around in his last two road losses to the Dodgers and Brewers. The Angels have struggled against National League opponents with a 4-8 record, while Los Angeles owns a 1-5 mark in Weaver’s past six interleague starts since the beginning of the 2015 season.
Biggest UNDER run: Cubs (6-1 last seven)
Chicago continues to shut down opposing team’s offenses as the Cubs have allowed two runs or less in six of the past seven contests. The Cubs barely went ‘over’ Thursday’s total of 8 ½ in a 7-2 rout of the Dodgers to snap a six-game ‘under’ streak, but Chicago is 12-5 to the ‘under’ since mid-May. John Lackey takes the mound for the Cubs this afternoon against the Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field, as Chicago has finished ‘under’ the total in each of his past four starts.
Biggest OVER run: Royals (10-0 last 10)
Kansas City suffered a rare bullpen meltdown in Thursday’s 5-4 walk-off loss at Cleveland, but the Royals managed to sail ‘over’ the total for the 10th consecutive game. The Royals actually scored their fewest runs in a game during this ‘over’ streak last night, snapping a nine-game streak plating at least five runs. Nine times during this stretch the Royals and their opponent have combined for at least nine runs, as tonight’s total against the Indians sits at 7 ½. Edinson Volquez starts for Kansas City tonight, as the Royals have gone ‘over’ the total in his last three road outings, including a 5-4 defeat at Cleveland last month on a 7 ½ total.
Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Rangers
Seattle pulled off a comeback for the ages last Thursday night, erasing a 12-2 deficit to shock San Diego, 16-13. The Mariners improved to 19-8 away from Safeco Field, while losing consecutive games only once on the road this season. Seattle visits Texas for the first time since the opening weekend of the season when the Mariners grabbed two of three from the Rangers. However, Texas picked up revenge in mid-April by winning two of three games at Safeco Field. The Rangers couldn’t finish off a sweep in their last series at Cleveland, losing the finale in walk-off fashion, but won the first two games as heavy underdogs. Yu Darvish makes his second start for Texas since Tommy John surgery, as the right-hander tossed five innings and scattered three hits and allowed one run in a 5-2 victory over the Pirates in his first outing last weekend.
Betcha didn’t know: The Mets owned a 1-8 record in Noah Syndergaard’s first nine road starts, but New York has won six of his past eight outings away from Citi Field. Syndergaard is making his first career start at Marlins Park, while looking to avenge a 2-1 defeat to Miami in April as the Mets’ right-hander allowed one run in seven innings and struck out 12 in the loss.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-220) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+105) at Phillies
Biggest line move: Padres (-130 to -140) vs. Rockies
Dave's MLB Friday
By Dave Essler
Arizona/Cubs: It's difficult to fade someone (Lackey) that sits on an 0.97 WHIP for the season, but I'd certainly try and make that case first. He did beat the D-Backs earlier in the season but DID allow six runs in six innings - one of his only bad outings this season. I wonder if Arizona found some momentum winning in extras Wednesday and shutting out Houston Thursday. Clearly it's tough to back Bradley or really get a feel for what he brings yet, and he has thrown a lot of pitches early. I could make the case for a F5 under here, simply because it could take the Cubs a couple of times through the order to figure him out. Or not.
Milwaukee/Philadelphia: I like Velasquez and I don't like Nelson. Honestly I don't like the Phillies much anymore, leaving Ryan Howard and his .150 batting average in the middle of that order. Nelson has two straight 100+ pitch games and that's not is best spot, so he'll need help, and the Brewers pen has a 7.96 ERA over the last week - so that precludes taking them on the road. Lean under a bit here only because Milwaukee hasn't seen Velasquez, or at least a F5 under. But a clear pass on the side.
Fish/Mets: The Mets can't hit and the Fish can't hit. Koehler doesn't give up long balls (how the Mets like to score) but cannot throw strikes, walking five in each of his last four starts - all high-pitch games. Noah is in an interesting spot having pitched out of the bullpen a few days ago after being ejected early in his previous start. Both pens have been brutal of late which could kill an under, so F5 under and in in-game over is where I'll be looking. Miami RL is not the worst bet in the world.
Reds/Nats: Reds in a first game back after being in Colorado while the Nats rested, which may well already be factored into that line at -160, as well as Harper being still listed as questionable. Gonzalez has owned the Reds - Finnegan is a flyball pitcher who has not had a good game in the small park yet, coupled with the Reds lack of a bullpen, and I cannot make a case for the home team.
Giants/Cardinals: How the mighty have fallen since you can get Wainright at home as an underdog. Don't look now but the Cardinals are 7-0 in his last seven starts and they had Thursday off while the Giants finished off in Atlanta. So, fading Cueto isn't always the most advisable thing either, and you don't often get a pitcher having a season like he is at a cheap price, even on the road. He did have a back injury that's apparently not going to effect the start - but it's a thing. With Pence on the DL I can make a case for the home team here.
Dodgers/Braves: Lots of travel here for Atlanta, leaving Georgia on a sour note, scoring zero runs. But, the Dodgers fly back from Wrigley which puts them in a tough position for me to take. With their often anemic offense this has under written all over it since their bullpen has been better of late.
Colorado/Padres: Does anyone outside of San Diego and Denver really care? Pomeranz is fortunate to be in the big leagues so b default I'd have to take the Rockies and Rusin away from Coors - but even that might be a stretch depending on what BOTH teams do Thursday night since they appear to be headed in opposite directions.
Yankess/Orioles: There was a time when I couldn't fade Tillman at home and shouldn't have been fading Eovaldi. One would think that if Eovaldi is at all "on" - in conjunction with the Yankees offense (or lack of) that this stays under. I lean to the Orioles only because they're at home and the NYY pen hasn't been meeting their own expectations - and the fact that New York travels.
White Sox/Tigers: Detroit: Tigers getting no rest having to face Pineda while Chicago does get some rest and could be without Austin Jackson. I have an instinctive lean to the over (who doesn't) because the White Sox pen has fallen on hard times and the Tigers may need some of their's with Boyd pitching Thursday. I can't take the Tigers because it's against my religion (Buddhist) to take a pitcher (Zimmerman) coming off the DL.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
‘A’ For Effort
The hottest team in baseball right now is …. the Oakland A’s? Though they are winners of five in a row, we should be careful about reading too much into this as all they did was sweep Minnesota in the last series and their run differential remains a poor -42 for the season (second worst in the American League, ahead of only the Twins). This weekend might present an ideal time to “sell high” on Billy Beane’s club as they pay a visit to Houston. Sure, the Astros have been a huge disappointment thus far, but they themselves were on a five-game win streak prior to Thursday’s loss. The A’s have lost 13 of their last 18 road games and I’ll be talking a lot more about them in this column.
Just As We Expected
Coming into the season, there were a consensus seven teams expected to be playoff contenders in the National League. Through 50+ games, those same teams (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals, Giants and Dodgers) are the seven that have produced positive run differentials so far in the Senior Circuit. The only matchup this weekend among that grouping takes place in St. Louis where the Giants come calling. They’ll conclude the three game set on Sunday Night Baseball. That finale probably represents the Cards best chance at a win in this series as they’ll face Jake Peavy, who has the highest ERA and WHIP on the Giants staff. The fact that both teams will be sending a trio of righties to the hill in this series does seem to favor the home team, however. While St. Louis bats just .245 vs. lefties, they are at .273 vs. righties. For San Francisco, it’s just the opposite. They hit .276 vs. lefties, but only .248 vs. righties.
Rocky Road
You have to feel for San Diego, who blew a 10-run lead (at home!) to Seattle Thursday night. Scoring 27 runs in two days and coming away with only a split is tough. But you should probably look for the strong offensive output to continue this weekend. That’s because the Padres welcome in the division rival Rockies, whose pitching staff, as always, is very, very bad. While the ERA of the Colorado staff does jump from 29th overall to 12th on the road, the team has lost 14 of its last 18 games at Petco Park and also just dropped three of four – at home – to the lowly Reds.
Hitting Notes
The A’s Khris Davis hit 11 home runs in May, tied for the most in all of baseball with the Reds’ Adam Duvall. However, he’s already started to slow down (just 1 HR in last 21 at-bats) and he strikes out at an alarming rate (53 times in 51 games). In other words, look for Davis to regress here in June.
Yet another Oakland slugger, Danny Valencia, has been swinging the stick quite well of late. Over the last seven days, Valencia is 12 for 22 at the plate. But, yet again, regression is probably forthcoming. After not hitting a single home run in his first 61 at-bats this year, Valencia proceeded to hit five in a three-day span earlier this month. The two multi-homer games equaled the number of times he’d done that in the first 543 games of his career.
Pitching Notes
Oakland also has a pitcher worth talking about as Rich Hill went 5-1 in May with 2.13 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 38 innings pitched. He is expected to start Saturday against the one team that beat him last month, that being Houston. Interestingly, Hill has a perfect 6-0 team start record on the road where he’s made 6.6 units.
Don’t be fooled by Noah Syndergaard’s 6-4 team start record. The Mets’ phenom has pitched very well of late, not giving up a single earned run in his last three starts, though the last one was cut short due to him being ejected. He threw an inning of scoreless relief on Tuesday (two strikeouts) and now has a 26-0 KW ratio his last 17 1/3 innings of work. He will be on the hill Friday vs. Miami.
Totals Trend
Last year, the Blue Jays lapped the field in terms of runs scored, but this year it is another American League East team doing the same (Red Sox). Even though Boston is by far and away baseball’s highest scoring team, be careful about betting Overs this weekend. Toronto’s last visit to Fenway Park produced four Unders and they are the surprising best team to bet on for Under bettors at 19-33-3 in all games this season.
Giants, Cards meet in St. Louis
By Sportsbook.ag
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (34-22) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (28-26)
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Francisco -125, St. Louis +115, Total: 7.0
The Cardinals will be looking to pick up a big home win over the Giants on Friday night.
San Francisco has been playing extremely well recently, as the team has now won nine of its past 13 games. The Giants have been getting some excellent performances from their pitching staff, as they shutout the Braves twice in their four-game set last series.
They’ll be hoping that the rotation can continue to hold up against the Cardinals and it’ll be RHP Johnny Cueto (8-1, 2.31 ERA, 72 K) that will be on the mound in this one.
For the Cardinals, RHP Adam Wainwright (5-3, 5.71 ERA, 40 K) will be trying to outduel Cueto on Friday. St. Louis has won in each of his past seven starts, but that has nothing to do with his pitching.
He has allowed three or more earned runs in six of those seven starts and has pitched less than seven innings in six of those seven as well.
San Francisco is an incredible 26-9 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Giants are, however, facing a Cardinals team that is 19-5 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the past two seasons.
One key player that is expected to miss this one is the Giants’ OF Hunter Pence (Hamstring), who was placed on the 15-day DL on Jun. 1.
Johnny Cueto is going to be toeing the rubber on Friday and he has been absolutely dominant for the Giants recently. In his last 24.0 innings on the mound, Cueto has allowed just two earned runs and has struck out 19 batters.
One thing that he is doing is keeping his homers allowed down. He has allowed just three over the past 10 starts and he should really be able to keep his brilliance up if he can continue to avoid the long ball.
Offensively, the Giants are coming off of a good game and will be hoping it carries over into this one. C Buster Posey (.264, 8 HR, 26 RBI) homered against the Braves on Thursday and that was his first hit since May 29.
San Francisco needs him to start hitting more consistently moving forward, but he is just 2-for-11 against Wainwright in his career. He’ll need to find a way to figure out the Cardinals’ starter on Friday.
Another guy to watch out for coming into this game is 2B Joe Panik (.242, 6 HR, 23 RBI). Panik hasn’t faced Wainwright very often, but he is 2-for-3 against the pitcher in his career. It’d be big if he can get on base a few times on Friday.
Adam Wainwright has not been his usual self this season, but he has been slowly progressing as of late.
Wainwright has seen his ERA go from 8.27 to 5.71 since Apr. 16 and will be hoping to continue to improve moving forward. Wainwright has been solid against the Giants over the past three seasons, going 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA versus the team.
Two guys that will be looking forward to facing Cueto on Friday are OF Matt Holliday (.262, 9 HR, 31 RBI) and C Yadier Molina (.266, 1 HR, 19 RBI). Both guys have struggled this season, but they are a combined 22-for-77 with two homers and 15 RBI against the Giants’ starter in their careers and it’d be very big for the Cardinals if they can produce on Friday.
St. Louis can also use a solid game from OF Stephen Piscotty (.318, 6 HR, 31 RBI). He has been their best hitter all season and it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals beating Cueto without him getting it going.