MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, June 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Giants @ Pirates
Cueto is 0-3, 4.11 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Giants are 4-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-3
Cole is 3-0, 1.35 in his last three starts; under is 10-3-1 in his last 14. Pirates are 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-10-3
Giants won their last three games, are 2-10 in last 12 road games, 6-7 in road series openers. Over is 10-3 in their road series openers. Pirates won four of last six games, are 5-8 in home series openers- their last five home games stayed under.
Phillies @ Mets
Lively is 0-2, 4.97 in his last four starts (under 3-1-1). Philles’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-4-1
deGrom is 3-0, 1.08 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Mets are 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-5-1
Phillies are 3-10 in last 13 road games, 7-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Mets won five of last six games, are 6-2 in last eight home series openers. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Cubs @ Reds
Montgomery is 1-1, 3.43 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Cubs’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1
Feldman is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Reds are 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2
Chicago lost four of last six games, is 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Reds lost 15 of last 19 games; they’re 7-6 in home series openers- over is 4-1 in their last five home games.
Marlins @ Brewers
Volquez is 1-1, 8.56 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Miami is 1-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1
Garza is 1-2, 6.06 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his home starts. Brewers lost his last three home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-2
Miami lost four of last five road games, is 5-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Milwaukee lost four of last six games, is 6-7 in home series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Nationals @ Cardinals
Roark is 0-3, 10.98 in his last four starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Washington is 4-3 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-7-1
Leake is 0-4, 5.65 in his last six starts; over is 2-0-1 in his last three. St Louis is 2-6 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2
Washington lost three of last four road games, is 9-4 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. St Louis won four of last five games, is 6-8 in home series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Gray is making his first start since April 13; he is 0-0, 4.38 in three starts this year. Colorado’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1
Ray is 1.30 in his last seven starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four. Arizona is 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3-5
Colorado lost its last eight games; they’re 1-5 in last six road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Arizona is 15-4 in its last 19 home games, but lost last two; they’re 9-4 in home series openers. Over is 10-3 in their home series openers.
Dodgers @ Padres
Wood is 7-0, 1.89 in his last eight starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-2-1
Richard is 1-1, 4.81 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his home starts. Padres split his eight home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-7-1
Dodgers are 13-2 in last 15 games, are 4-1 in last five road series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. San Diego won five of last seven games, is 10-4 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
American League
Rays @ Orioles
Faria is 3-0, 2.10 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). Rays’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-0-1
Bundy is 2-3, 6.26 in his last five starts; his last four starts went over. Orioles are 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2
Tampa Bay lost four of last five games, is 8-5 in road series openers- their last three games stayed under. Orioles won four of their last five games; their last three stayed under. Baltimore is 10-3 in home series openers.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Fister allowed three runs in six IP (105 PT) in his first Boston start; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Estrada is 0-4, 10.03 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Toronto is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-3
Red Sox won three of last four games; they’re 5-8 in road series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Toronto lost five of last seven games; they’re 4-9 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Indians @ Tigers
Tomlin is 1-3, 7.11 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four road starts. Cleveland is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-2
Sanchez is 0-0, 3.27 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Detroit’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1
Cleveland won three of its last four games, is 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Detroit won three of last four games; six of their last eight games went over. Tigers are 8-4 in home series openers.
New York @ Houston
Pineda is 0-1, 8.62 in his last three starts; his last six starts went over. New York is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8
McCullers is 5-0, 2.06 in his last seven starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Houston is 6-0 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3
New York is 4-12 in its last 16 games; they’re 7-6 in road series openers. Under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Astros won eight of last ten games, but lost last four home series openers- over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Rangers @ White Sox
Dirkx is 2-0, 3.80 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0-2
Pelfrey is 1-2, 4.12 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Chicago is 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-2
Texas lost three of last four games, is 5-8 in road series openers. Under is 12-3 in their last 15 road games. Chicago lost 8 of last 12 games, is 4-7 in home series openers. Over is 6-1-1 in their last eight home series openers.
Twins @ Royals
Santana is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his road starts. Minnesota is 6-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-3-2
Vargas is 6-0, 2.27 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-4-1
Minnesota lost three of last four games; they’re 9-3 in road series openers. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Kansas City lost three of last four games, is 7-6 in home series openers. Over is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games.
Mariners @ Angels
Gaviglio is 4-1, 4.45 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Seattle is 2-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1
Bridwell is 2-0, 3.71 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Angels’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-0
Seattle lost its last four games, is 4-8 in road series openers. Over is 9-3-3 in their last 15 games. Angels lost three of last four games, are 5-7 in home series openers. Five of last six Angel games stayed under the total.
Interleague
Braves @ A’s
Foltynewicz is 1-0, 2.54 in his last five starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Atlanta is 2-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-3
Gray is 1-1, 5.64 in his last five starts (over 9-2). Oakland is 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4
Atlanta lost three of last four games; they’re 8-2 in last ten road series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Oakland lost its last four home games; they’re 6-6 in home series openers. Over is 17-9-1 in their last 27 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Pitt: Cueto 8-8; Cole 9-7
Phil-NY: Lively 1-4; deGrom 9-6
Chi-Cin: Montgomery 1-3; Feldman 7-9
Mia-Mil: Volquez 6-9; Garza 5-6
Wsh-StL: Roark 9-7; Leake 7-8
Col-Az: Gray 3-0; Ray 11-4
LA-SD: Wood 8-3; Richard 6-10
American League
TB-Balt: Faria 3-1; Bundy 10-6
Bos-Tor: Fister 0-1; Estrada 7-9
Clev-Det: Tomlin 5-10; Sanchez 0-2
NY-Hst: Pineda 9-6; McCullers 12-2
Tex-Chi: Dirkx 2-2; Pelfrey 5-7
Minn-KC: Santana 10-6; Vargas 11-4
Sea-LA: Gaviglio 6-2; Bridwell 3-0
Interleague
Atl-A’s: Foltynewicz 7-7 (7-2 last 9); Gray 5-6
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
SF-Pitt: Cueto 5-16; Cole 4-16
Phil-NY: Lively 3-5; deGrom 6-15
Chi-Cin: Montgomery 1-4; Feldman 3-16
Mia-Mil: Volquez 6-15; Garza 2-11
Wsh-StL: Roark 7-16; Leake 2-15
Col-Az: Gray 0-3; Ray 5-15
LA-SD: Wood 1-11; Richard 3-16
American League
TB-Balt: Faria 2-4; Bundy 1-16
Bos-Tor: Fister 0-1; Estrada 7-16
Clev-Det: Tomlin 6-15; Sanchez 0-2
NY-Hst: Pineda 8-15 (4 of last 5); McCullers 3-14
Tex-Chi: Dirkx 1-4; Pelfrey 3-12
Minn-KC: Santana 3-16; Vargas 3-15
Sea-LA: Gaviglio 2-8; Bridwell 0-3
Interleague
Atl-A’s: Foltynewicz 2-14; Gray 2-11
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 41-25 AL, favorites -$147
AL @ NL– 40-40, favorites -$1,010
Total: 81-65 AL, favorites -$1,157
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-27-2
AL @ NL: Over 43-32-2
Total: Over 85-59-4
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mets (5-1 last six) vs. Phillies
New York sits seven games below .500 in spite of its recent hot stretch, as the Mets return home following a successful end to their road trip. After getting swept in a four-game series by the Dodgers, the Mets took all three contests against the Giants, while capturing two of three from the Marlins. The offense racked up only five runs in the final three losses at Los Angeles, but New York scored at least five runs in each of their past five victories.
Jacob deGrom has rebounded from a pair of poor outings against the Brewers and Rangers (15 earned runs in eight innings) to give up just three runs in the past three starts – all victories. In seven of New York’s nine wins when deGrom starts, the Mets have won by two runs or more, which is key since they are -240 on the money-line and -120 on the run-line.
Coldest team: Rockies (0-8 last eight) at Diamondbacks
On June 20, Colorado rallied past Arizona, 4-3 to win its sixth consecutive game and improve to 47-26. The Rockies haven’t won since then as they dropped the final two games of their series to the D-backs, while getting swept in road series to the Dodgers and Giants. The Colorado offense has dried up during this losing streak by scoring three runs or fewer six times, while the pitching has allowed nine runs or more four times.
The Rockies head to the desert to face the D-backs once again in an NL West showdown this weekend. Colorado captured two of three matchups at Chase Field in late April as right-hander Jon Gray heads to the mound in the opener. Gray started on Opening Day for Colorado in a 7-5 win at Milwaukee, but has been out of action since mid-April with a foot injury.
Hottest pitcher: Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (8-3, 2.87 ERA)
Ray has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season, as he is one victory away from a career-high for wins in a season. Arizona is 7-0 in Ray’s past seven outings, including three double-digit strikeout efforts from the southpaw. Ray has received tremendous run support in his last three outings at Chase Field (30 runs), but picked up only one run of support the last time he faced the Rockies on April 28, dropping a 3-1 decision as a -165 favorite.
Coldest pitcher: Chris Tillman, Orioles (1-5, 8.39 ERA)
Maybe the reverse jinx is on in this category after Tillman’s teammate, Ubaldo Jimenez was featured. Jimenez scattered two hits in eight innings of work as the Orioles blanked the Blue Jays, 2-0 as +165 road underdogs. Tillman tries to capitalize off that performance as the right-hander is actually unbeaten in his last two starts. Baltimore pulled out a pair of victories as underdogs against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, but Tillman gave up 16 hits and 10 runs in just 8.1 innings of work. Baltimore hosts Tampa Bay on Friday as the Orioles own a 1-3 record in Tillman’s past four starts at Camden Yards.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (6-2 last eight on road)
Atlanta’s offense disappeared against Dinelson Lamet in a 6-0 shutout at San Diego on Thursday. Although the Braves have played only two of their last seven series on the road, we’ll focus on their away total numbers as they travel to Oakland tonight. Atlanta has given up at least six runs in five of its past seven games away from SunTrust Park, while right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has yielded at least five earned runs in two of his previous three road assignments.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (5-1 last six)
Thanks to a late run against the Dodgers’ bullpen, the Angels barely cashed the OVER in a 6-2 loss and saw its five-game UNDER streak come to a close. The Angels’ offense hasn’t busted out recently by scoring four runs or fewer in five straight games, while getting shut down by Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on Thursday. The Halos welcome in the Mariners this weekend as Parker Bridwell shoots for his third win of the season. Bridwell is coming off a pair of wins as a huge underdog against the Yankees and Red Sox, while allowing a total of four earned runs in those outings.
Matchup to watch: Yankees vs. Astros
Houston is running away with the American League West as the Astros own a commanding 13½-game edge over second-place Los Angeles. The Astros are coming off a 8-2 stretch against the Athletics and Mariners, but Houston has slumped to a 1-5 record in the past six series openers, which includes a loss on Tuesday to Oakland.
Lance McCullers, Jr. heads to the mound for Houston searching for his eighth win of the season. McCullers is unbeaten in his last seven starts, while making his first start following a two-week layoff in a 5-2 victory at Seattle last Saturday. The Astros have won all six of McCullers’ outings at Minute Maid Park this season, while going 12-4 in his past 16 home starts since the beginning of 2016.
The Yankees played deep into the night on Thursday following a three-hour rain delay in Chicago as New York lost, 4-3 to split their four-game set on the South Side. New York has slipped to 2-8 in its past 10 games away from the Bronx, while the Yankees haven’t won consecutive road contests since mid-May at Kansas City. Joe Girardi’s team is looking to avenge a 1-3 home series to Houston from early May as Michael Pineda takes the hill. Pineda is winless in his last three starts, while owning a 6.25 ERA on the highway.
Betcha didn’t know: The Cubs continue to be inconsistent on the road this season as the defending champions haven’t won back-to-back games away from Wrigley Field since late April in Cincinnati. Guess where Chicago is playing tonight? The Cubs try to capitalize off Thursday’s comeback win at Washington with a visit against the Reds, who own a 1-5 record against Chicago this season.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-240) vs. Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Red Sox (+135) at Blue Jays
Biggest line move: Dodgers (-190 to -210) at Padres
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-125); Total: 8
I’ll conveniently skip over the Tampa Bay/Baltimore game since I have no idea what to expect from the Rays at this point and focus on the Giants vs. Pirates matchup. The Giants are coming off of a sweep and a travel day with Johnny Cueto on the hill. The Pirates will counter with Gerrit Cole. This feels like as close as we get to a premier pitching matchup anymore with all the injuries and a lot of bad starters out there.
Cueto has been anything but premier, though. Cueto has a 4.20 ERA with a 4.51 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. He has expressed interest in opting out of his contract after the season. With the Giants in shambles, he’ll be a popular trade candidate, much like he once in 2015 when the Royals acquired him for their World Series run. Cueto’s problem is very easy to figure out. He’s giving up too many home runs. All of his other numbers fall pretty close to his career range, but his home run to fly ball rate of 17.8 percent is 7.5 percent higher than his career mark. In 100.2 innings, Cueto has allowed 18 dingers. He allowed 15 in 219.2 innings last season. His career high is 29 back in 2008, his rookie year, and he’s on pace to match that this season. He only allowed 22 HR in a career-best 243.2 innings in 2014.
Cueto’s velocity is down, even with the new tracking methods, and his command is also down. We may be seeing some signs of the pitcher aging curve from the 31-year-old. It’s generally not about age, it’s about workload. Cueto surpassed 1,700 career innings earlier this season. It may be simple variance. It may be that Cueto has gotten caught in the crosshairs of MLB’s launch angle craze. Thirteen of his 18 HR allowed have come on the road, with starts in Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and San Diego. Pittsburgh is not a hitter’s haven like some of those other parks and should knock down that home run rate, at least for one start.
Those that were panicking about Gerrit Cole, like me, have gotten a dose of STFU over the last three starts. Cole has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.57 FIP and a 4.02 xFIP, but he has allowed just three runs on 11 hits over his last three starts covering 20 innings of work. He only has 13 strikeouts against seven walks, though, so I’m not ready to anoint him as a savior for this team. In fact, I still have some concerns. Cole’s claim to fame has been command, but he, like Cueto, seems to have lost it this season. Cole has allowed 17 HR in 96.1 innings of work. He did bunch his home runs, though, allowing eight of the 17 over a three-start stretch in which he allowed 16 runs over 14.2 innings. It seems a mechanical adjustment has been made. Eleven of Cole’s 17 HR allowed have come on the road.
With the Giants making the cross-country trek to PNC Park and the park factor playing as a positive for both guys, we’ll be looking at the under today. If you prefer the first five, take it, but the under should be a good look here. As far as a side goes, the Giants got that sweep, but I think that was more about regression for the Rockies, so I’d lean Pirates today.
Boston at Toronto (-145); Total: 10
Those that listened to yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box know my thoughts on the Toronto Blue Jays. If you haven’t, please go back and check it out. There was a lot of great information in there. For those that don’t want to hear the sound of my lovely voice, the cliff notes version is that I’m on the Blue Jays for the next little while. They’ve been a pretty big underachiever offensively in key situations, with injuries playing a big part.
Doug Fister is back in the bigs. After posting a 4.64 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP in 180.1 innings for the Astros, Fister opted to join a team around midseason this year and he picked the Red Sox. His first start wasn’t bad, with three runs on seven hits, six strikeouts, and three walks. It obviously wasn’t great, but Fister kept the Red Sox in the game against the Angels. We’ll have to see what he has in store for today. His velocity was up, so maybe starting late has given him a chance to be a big stronger.
The Jays will respond with Marco Estrada. Estrada has seen a massive reversal of luck in the BABIP category. It feels like the regression that people have been betting on for him throughout his career is all hitting in one season. Estrada, despite a 33.5 percent GB%, has a .333 BABIP against. He’s also carrying that BABIP in spite of a 1.47 HR/9 and a 12.4 percent HR/FB%. He’s given up 15 HR in 92 innings. What’s really odd about all of it is that Estrada has his best K% since 2009 in a career that dates back to 2008 at the MLB level. Command is king and Estrada hasn’t shown enough of it.
The Red Sox are having a problem hitting home runs this season, which isn’t a problem for any other team it seems. I want to back the Blue Jays, but I was definitely hoping for a better price here. I had this game more like -133, so it’s a little bit too rich for my blood, but I do think the Blue Jays will go on a little run before the Break.
Chicago (-115) at Cincinnati; Total: 9
Well, you can assume that it’s a sharp line move between the Cubs and Reds today. Left-hander Mike Montgomery opened a -130 favorite and some shops are as low as -113 with Scott Feldman going for the Reds. I presume this is an adjustment to the Cubs lineup without Kris Bryant. Bryant suffered a sprained ankle on Wednesday and his status is in doubt. He hasn’t been put on the DL as of this morning, but we’ll see how the Cubs handle it. He’s a two-way player in that he’s exceptional offensively and very good defensively as well, so it’s a double whammy for the Cubs.
Montgomery will be making his fifth start of the season. He’s got a 2.50 ERA with a 3.64 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP in four starts and 18 relief appearances. As he’s gotten stretched out, the former starter in the Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City organizations has looked more comfortable in that role. Cincinnati ranks 10th in wOBA, but when adjusted for park factor, the Reds are three percent below league average. Montgomery hasn’t given up more than three runs in a start this season, so he’s keeping the Cubs in the game. To me, that’s really all you need against Scott Feldman.
Feldman has a 4.07 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP. He’s actually been better than expected, even in the face of a .304 BABIP and a 14.9 percent HR/FB%. I’m actually looking at Feldman for a guy in line for some regression. His 74.1 percent LOB% is above his career average and his 19.2 percent K% is well above his career mark. To be fair, he’s in the NL and facing pitchers regularly for the first time, but his swinging strike rate of 7.9 percent is way below the league average and so is his 25.7 percent chase rate. More contact is coming for Feldman and that appears to be a bad thing given his HR rate and his BABIP.
I’m taking the Cubs today. I know they can’t seem to get out of their own way right now, but they’re the better team and I truly think they have the better pitcher on the mound. Not having Kris Bryant is a bummer, if he doesn’t play, but there’s a lot of depth and talent here. The bullpen is in decent shape. There aren’t enough reasons to keep me off of them at the lower price.
Cleveland at Detroit (-110); Total: 10
I’m kind of at a loss for words when it comes to this line move. The Indians head to Detroit after taking three of four from the Rangers. The Tigers stay home after hosting the Royals. It’ll be Josh Tomlin against Anibal Sanchez. The Indians opened a slight favorite, but are now a slight dog at some shops as the market backs Sanchez.
Look, these two teams don’t like each other and it goes all the way to the managers. Brad Ausmus’s embarrassing antics and whining have rubbed Terry Francona the wrong way, so much so to the point that Francona let his pettiness out and challenged a call at first in the eighth inning of a lopsided game the last time these teams met.
Comerica Park isn’t playing as small as it did earlier in the season, which I’m guessing is why people don’t like Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is doing what he has always done. He’s showing elite control with a home run problem. The difference this season is that he’s also carrying a .353 BABIP against and a 63.6 percent strand rate. He has a 6.09 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. Tomlin has gotten pretty unlucky on balls in play. He’s going to give up home runs, but you rarely see a home run pitcher with a 63.6 percent LOB%. You also rarely see one with a .353 BABIP. Tomlin hasn’t shown much command this season, but I see some positive regression, despite all the hard contact. He had a 4.40 ERA last season with a 4.88 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP with a similar profile. He actually had more ground balls last season which would support a higher BABIP.
The inconsistent Indians offense is a worry against Anibal Sanchez, who has a 6.75 ERA, a 6.57 FIP, and a 5.08 xFIP in his 32 innings this season. Sanchez went to the minors to get some work in and made four rehab starts. Since coming back as a starter, he’s allowed three earned on seven hits over 11 innings with an 11/3 K/BB ratio. Forgive me for not believing that he is suddenly fixed. He did well against a quality Mariners lineup, but faced a bad Padres lineup in San Diego.
I’ve talked in the past about my unwillingness to play the “which pitcher will suck less?” game, but I’m playing it here and I’m playing it with the Indians. If the Tribe gets blown out, it happens, but if you’re giving me two bad starters, one in line for some positive regression, and one team has a huge bullpen advantage, I know exactly where I’m going. The Indians are the play tonight.
Texas (-125) at Chicago; Total: 9.5
Normalcy is the theme of the Rangers vs. White Sox game tonight. This could be a byproduct of last night’s White Sox vs. Yankees game, which didn’t get underway until late because of rain, but the market is fading the White Sox against right-handed pitchers again. Today, that right-hander is Texas’s Austin Bibens-Dirkx. It doesn’t hurt that Mike Pelfrey is the hurler on the other side for Chicago.
In four starts and five relief outings, Bibens-Dirkx, who I will refer to as ABD from now on so I don’t have to type that name, has a 3.68 ERA with a 5.29 FIP and a 5.25 xFIP. He’s been in pro ball since 2006 and this is the first time that he has pitched at the Major League level. I’m assuming there’s a reason or two behind that. He’s got a .194 BABIP because the only hits that he has allowed have left the ballpark. That’s not entirely true, but he does have seven HR allowed out of his 28 hits. He only has 21 strikeouts. I get that the White Sox aren’t very good against righties, but this guy is basically a Triple-A starter.
Fading Mike Pelfrey is totally fair. Pelfrey actually has a 3.73 ERA this season, but also has a 4.84 FIP and a 5.26 xFIP, so the ERA is likely on the way up. Pitching coach Don Cooper’s concoction of RC cola, pixie dust, and the souls of more talented pitchers seems to be working on Pelfrey. I’d be surprised if it works for long, at least to this degree. This is the type of guy that the Rangers can hit. They can’t hit anybody with plus stuff because they swing and miss too much. Pelfrey pitches to contact.
I need to watch this line throughout the day. If it goes any higher, I’m going to gamble on the White Sox. I’m actually surprised to see the market taking sides here with signs of regression for both pitchers. I’m guessing this is just a reactionary thing to the late night and the bullpen usage of the White Sox. The Rangers played a getaway day game in Cleveland and looked like they wanted to get away. I’m not sure that angle is enough to support the move or the Rangers.
Miami at Milwaukee (-105); Total: 10
We’ve seen money on the Marlins and against the Brewers over the last several weeks. We’ll see if that continues in 2012 when Edinson Volquez faces off against Matt Garza. Doc Brown has shoved us all into the DeLorean and we’re going back in time to when slap hitters ruled the earth and department stores were still thriving. There wasn’t a Starbucks in every nook and cranny and Twitter was a place with mostly reasonable takes.
Volquez actually has a no-hitter to his name this season. He’s pitched well with a 4.15 ERA, a 4.29 FIP, and a 4.73 xFIP. His walk rate of 13.8 percent hasn’t been a big problem because of a .282 BABIP against and an improved LOB%. He’s also cut back on his home runs. He’s actually kind of an underrated commodity this season, considering the Marlins have a pretty good defense and he’s probably the second-most-consistent starter behind Dan Straily. I think we’ll see some Marlins money throughout the day, as these are two teams pointed in different directions according to the market. We’ve already seen a move at Pinnacle, which is deemed the sharpest book in the offshore market by most pros. That is the only place where Miami is a favorite at time of writing, so the sharp guys have tipped their hands.
Matt Garza has a 4.43 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.39 xFIP. He’s been moderately useful despite a 65.9 percent LOB%. Most of his other numbers fall in normal ranges and his declining K% is somewhat mitigated by an improved BB%. If the Brewers can get anything out of value out of the impending free agent, that would be a very good thing for them.
I’m not sure what to do here. I know there is regression coming for the Brewers, but this seemingly endless push on the Marlins hasn’t generated a ton of ROI, as they are still struggling to put it all together. I’ll probably just stay off this one.
Minnesota at Kansas City (-125); Total: 8.5
Let’s get ready to reeeeeeeeeeeeeegresssssssssssssssssssssssssss! Michael Buffer won’t be on the call for this game, nor will his brother, Bruce. Perhaps there’s another Buffer Brother that can announce that for us. Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas are both massive regression candidates.
Santana has a 2.80 ERA with a 4.58 FIP and a 4.82 xFIP. Vargas has a 2.29 ERA with a 3.45 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. Vargas has never been one to allow a lot of home runs, so the xFIP doesn’t concern me all that much. The 85.9 percent LOB% does, especially with one of the lower qualified K rates in baseball. Santana doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats either. His 86.2 percent LOB% is also a significant outlier.
The market has moved on the Royals, which leads me to believe that Vargas is viewed as more sustainable, likely because of the FIP. Vargas doesn’t walk people, which is something that can make Santana’s regression worse. Santana also has a .208 BABIP against while Vargas has a .284 BABIP against. Kansas City is also playing a bit better right now. Advantage Kansas City, but I’m not sure I’m touching this one.
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks -144
The Diamondbacks and the Rockies have the second and third best records in the National League respectively, worse than only the Dodgers. Robbie Ray is going to be starting for Arizona against Jon Gray for the Rockies. Both teams have cooled off a little bit in recent weeks, but the Rockies especially look like they may start to perform closer to their projections.
Robbie Ray is arguably the second best starter for the Diamondbacks. ERA wise, he has been the best pitcher for Arizona, even better than Greinke, at 2.87. This is better than his peripherals, with an xFIP of 3.79, largely because of his high walk rate, and low BABIP. His walk rate right now sits at 4.12 walks per nine innings, and a BABIP of .268. Last season, Ray was a pretty controversial starter, because his peripherals outperformed his ERA drastically, due to a very high BABIP, at .358, and many thought that his batted ball profile was particularly bad. The low BABIP this season probably says something positive about it, but largely it’s hard to tell just how good Ray is at this point. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks have one of the best bullpens in the MLB, so Ray may not be too important.
MLB Underdog of the day: San Diego Padres +202
I’m more than comfortable calling the Padres the worst team in the MLB, while calling the Dodgers the best team in the MLB. Left hander Clayton Richard is starting for the Padres against left hander Alex Wood for the Dodgers. Alex Wood has been the second best starter for the Dodgers this season, and has solidified their rotation as the best in the MLB.
Clayton Richard in my opinion is one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL West. Richard isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, but he has been having a career season for strikeouts. He is above average when it comes to limiting walks, which is valuable for such an extreme groundball pitcher. By far Richard’s most valuable skill is his ability to prevent flyballs and line drives, and force a lot of groundballs. Richard’s skillset would be more valuable on a team in a hitter’s park, and with better fielders, but even for the Padres he’s been fairly good. He has an ERA of 4.42, and an xFIP of 3.75. His groundball rate is at 58%, and even still he has a BABIP of .341. Traditionally high groundball rates are going to correspond to lower BABIPs, so I think it’s likely that his BABIP at the very least should start to trend towards .300.
Alex Wood has been one of the best starting pitchers in the MLB, worse than only Kershaw on the Dodgers. Already this season, Wood is at his career high in innings, after he pitched only 60 innings last season. He has an ERA of 1.86, and xFIP of 2.53, with one of the best strikeout rates in the MLB at 10.53 per nine innings. Just like Richard he has a very high groundball rate at 66%, which is of course impressive, but I’m not sure that it’s likely to continue. He is a high volume sinker ball thrower, but one of the strange occurrences in the MLB right now is how many players have managed to start to hit flyballs on moving fastballs, including sinkers. Ultimately, I’m not confident that the Padres are going to win this game, and this is mostly a value play. I don’t have a total pick for the day, so these are going to be my only two picks.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
NY Yankees (42-35) at Houston (54-26)
Scheduled rotation: Pineda (7-4) vs. McCullers (7-1), Montgomery (6-4) vs. Martes (2-0), Severino (5-3) vs. Fiers (5-3)
Series price: Astros -150, Yankees +135
This should have been a nice match-up between first-place squads, but the Yankees (-3.1 units) blew it by going 4-12 over their last 16 games. Still, it's a match-up of the top scoring teams in the American League with both averaging 5.6 runs a game. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees own a .226 batting average and their stellar bullpen is imploding with a 6.75 ERA. The Astros (+18.8 units) are batting .303 over the same span, winning eight of 10. Houston just keeps rolling along with baseball's best record and highest batting average (.284). They've gone 39-17 in their last 56 games. They took three out of four in May at Yankee Stadium, and of course they took the first game of that series. That's what Houston does. They get on opponents quickly out of the gate going 17-8 in the first games of series this season. The Yankees have shown they are a much different team on the road (18-22) and Houston hasn't shown any signs of slowing the machine down. Laying -150 looks cheap here.
Boston (44-35) at Toronto (37-41)
Scheduled rotation: Fister (0-1) vs. Estrada (4-6), Sale (10-3) vs. Liriano (4-3), Pomeranz (7-4) vs. Biagini (2-7)
Series price: Red Sox -110, Blue Jays +100
The Red Sox (-1.6) are right where they were expected to be when the season started: first-place in the A.L. East. The Blue Jays (-12.8 ) have been a major disappointment and sit in last place, 6.5 games behind Boston. The Jays average only 4.2 runs a game, which is the second-least in the A.L. behind the Royals (4.0). Surprisingly, this is only the second series between the division rivals this season. Boston took two of three at Toronto in April. The Jays have lost six of their last nine and because of their hitting woes, five of their last six stayed Under the total. Boston is also also on a run of staying Under five of its last six. Saturday's game features Chris Sale, who is now listed at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as a prohibitive 1-to-5 favorite to win the A.L. Cy Young Award. Something to think about is Sale's lack of stamina in the second half last season. After starting 14-2, the White Sox proceeded to lose 10 of his final 14 starts with most of the losses being his fault.
Chicago Cubs (40-39) at Cincinnati (33-45)
Scheduled rotation: Montgomery (1-4) vs. Feldman (6-5), Butler (4-2) vs. TBA, Arrieta (7-6) vs. Adleman (5-4)
Series price: Cubs -145, Reds +130
The Cubs have been the third-worst bet of the season at -15.2 units and its team rating at the Las Vegas sports books has been sliding weekly. It dropped even lower since Kris Bryant (8 cents) hurt his ankle and has been out the last two nights. Only the Padres have a lower batting average (.228) than the Cubs (.238). The Cubs starting rotation hasn't picked up the slack, either, coming with a chunky 4.48 ERA. But the get well tonic might be the Reds (-7.3), who they've beaten 38 of the past 51 meetings, including five of six this season. Cincinnati has the worst starting rotation (6.29 ERA) in baseball and have lost 15 of its last 19 games. The Cubs have lost 15 of their last 22 road games, but come off a split at Washington where they won the last game in dramatic fashion.
Washington (47-32) at St. Louis (37-41)
Scheduled rotation: Roark (6-5) vs. Leake (4-3), Gonzalez (7-2) vs. Wacha (4-3), Scherzer (9-5) vs. Martinez (6-6)
Series price: Nationals -110, Cardinals +100
The Cardinals (-10.6) have to come into this series feeling good about their current play winning four of their last five, which included winning a series at Arizona. The Diamondbacks hadn't lost a series at home since April. St. Louis comes fully loaded with their best arms and while they lost two of three at Washington in April, they did manage to beat Max Scherzer. Washington has won eight of the past 11 meetings, but the Cardinals have won 21 of the last 28 meetings at Busch Stadium. The key to this series will be Friday's game with Tanner Roark going for the Nats. They've lost his past four starts. The Nats have gone 17-9 in the first game of a series this season. Washington leads the National League in hitting (.278) and lead baseball in runs scored (446), but they're such big favorites nightly that their net profits are in the negative at -0.1.
Colorado (47-34) at Arizona (50-30)
Scheduled rotation: Gray (0-0) vs. Ray (8-3), Chatwood (6-8 ) vs. Greinke (9-4), Marquez (5-4) vs. Walker (6-3)
Series price: Diamondbacks -170, Rockies +150
The Rockies (+14.8 ) had been the most profitable team in baseball, but now that label goes to Arizona (+19.5) just because the Rockies have lost eight straight games. The awful run actually was started by Arizona winning the final two of a three games series at Coors Field, which allowed the Dodgers to take over first-place in the N.L. West from Colorado. The Rockies had a shot to take the lead back in their next series, but then lost three straight at Dodger Stadium. Then things got worse when they lost three at AT&T Park to the last-place Giants. Now here they are -- staggering -- playing against one of the best home teams in baseball (30-12) who have the second-best record in the league. The good news for the Rockies is that they get Jon Gray back into the rotation on Friday. He's been out since mid-April. The Rockies had won all three of his starts up to that point. The Rockies lead the season series, 5-4, but Arizona is on a run of winning 16 of its last 21 games.
LA Dodgers (53-28) at San Diego (33-46)
Scheduled rotation: Wood (8-0) vs. Richard (5-7), Hill (4-4) vs. TBA, Maeda (6-3) vs. Chacin (6-7)
Series price: Dodgers -250, Padres +220
The Dodgers (+12.9) have been on a an incredible roll winning 38 of their last 52 with an insane combination of great hitting and shutdown pitching. They lead baseball with a +1.7 run differential and their starters have the best ERA (3.43). The Padres (-5.9) aren't in last-place because the Giants are so bad, but they're last in almost every offense category beginning with runs scored (3.4 per game) and batting average (.228). The Dodgers have won five of six from the Padres this season, including both games at Petco Park. The best news here for the Padres is that they've won seven of their last nine home games and they don't have to face Clayton Kershaw.
Minnesota (40-37) at Kansas City (38-39)
Scheduled rotation: Santana (10-4) vs. Vargas (11-3), Berrios (7-2) vs. Hammel (4-6), Jorge (0-0) vs, Skoglund (1-1), Santiago (4-7) vs. Strahm (2-5)
Series price: Royals -115, Twins -105
This will be a four-game series with a day/night double-header on Saturday. The Twins (+7.0) follow-up to their sweep at Cleveland didn't go so well losing three of four at Boston. But their 24-12 road record is still quite impressive and they sit 1.5 games behind Cleveland in the A.L. Central. Kansas City (+3.6) is 3.5 games behind and showing signs offensively of being real contenders in a mediocre division. However, Minnesota has won eight of the past nine meetings. Friday's winner will tilt the scales in this series with an All-Star match-up of Ervin Santana vs. Jason Vargas. Quietly, Vargas is having his best season ever leading the A.L. in wins (11) and ERA (2.29). If thinking Cy Young, the Westgate has him at 12-to-1 odds to win as the third choice behind Sale (1/5) and Dallas Keuchel (3/1).
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double Play Picks
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-125, 8.5)
Tell me if you thought you would be hearing this through three months of the Major League Baseball season, the Twins and Royals are not only in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, but the AL Central as well. Well, that’s exactly the case as the division rivals meet for a three-game set in Kansas City this weekend.
The series kicks off in style as the AL Central foes send their respective best pitchers to the bump on Friday night, as Ervin Santana gets the call for the Twins while the Royals counter with Jason Vargas. In fact, Santana and Vargas haven’t just been their team’s best pitcher, but they’ve been a couple of the best pitchers in the American League this season.
Santana is 10-4 this season with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.047 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit just .196 off of him this season. The 34-year-old right hander did do through a bit of a slump, but bounced back in his last outing, scattering nine hits over six shutout innings, while striking out seven against the Indians.
He has been even better away from Target Field this year, going 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA, a 0.938 WHIP while opponents it just .180 against him.
By the numbers, Vargas has been even better. He is 11-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP. At home, the veteran right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA, a 1.065 WHIP.
Plus, both teams rank in the bottom third in the majors in runs scored and the Under is 4-0 in Santana’s last four road starts versus the Royals.
This should be a situation for both starter’s to excel.
Pick: Under 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (+190, 7.5)
It’s a west coast showdown as the Dodgers travel to San Diego to begin a three-game weekend series against the Padres on Friday, in a matchup of NL West foes that the Dodgers have dominated this season.
The Dodgers and Padres have played six times already in 2017 with Los Angeles going 5-1, while outscoring San Diego 45-14.
Los Angeles send Alex Wood to the mound for Friday’s opener and the 26-year-old southpaw has been fantastic for the Dodgers this season. Wood is 8-0 this season with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.916 WHIP, with the Dodgers winning each of his last eight starts. On Friday he gets to face a Padres lineup that ranks dead last in runs, average and 29th in OPS.
The Padres counter with Clayton Richard, who is 5-7 with 4.42 ERA with a 1.445 WHIP and is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA with a1.452 WHIP at home this season. Richard will have his hand full with a Dodgers lineup that has been mashing the ball.
In Los Angeles’ last 14 games, in which they have gone 12-2, they have scored 6.5 runs per game, thanks in no small part to rookie Cody Bellinger, who now has 24 round trippers this season, including six multi-homer games.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 76-68-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (7-3, 3.71, $43)
The Mets have had a disappointing season 2017, this was the year they were supposed to be the Kings of New York. Things haven’t worked out that way, as injuries have ravaged the team.
Jacob deGrom has been a rare glimmer of hope and over his last three outings he has been filthy. He is 3-0 with a tidy .72 ERA, .76 WHIP and the two earned runs he’s allowed have been solo dingers. He isn’t just dominating but he’s eating up innings throwing 25 innings in those last three starts. DeGrom and the Mets are currently -250 home chalk and host the Philadelphia Phillies.
Slumping: Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (6-5, 5.15, $-320)
The Washington Nationals are dominating the worst division in the Majors and baring an epic meltdown will make the playoffs. The Nats rotation is lead by arguably the best trio in baseball and after that their pitching gets questionable.
While the struggling bullpen gets most of the headlines, Tanner Roark has been struggling lately. In his last three starts he has a 12.51 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, and opponents batting average of .441. The Nationals have lost all three of these starts. Roark and the Nationals are +110 road dogs against Mike Leake and the Cardinals.
Friday's Top Trends
* Mets are 8-0 in Jacob deGroms last eight starts vs. Phillies. Mets -250.
* Under is 7-0 in Cubs last seven games following a win. Cub @ Reds, O/U: 9.
* Rockies are 0-8 in their last eight overall. Rockies +135 @ Diamondbacks.
* Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Robbie Ray's last seven starts. Diamondbacks -145 vs. Rockies.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Rain and Thunderstorms will be an issue at a couple ball parks today. Great American Ball Park where the Pirates will welcome the Cubs there is a 24 percent chance of rain at first pitch and that numbers grows as the night goes on. PNC Park is expecting a 45 percent chance of precipitation at first pitch and a chance of thunderstorms as the night progresses with The Pirates hosting the Giants. At Comerica Park in Detroit the Indians are in town and thunderstorms are forecasted for the evening and could lead to a delay of first pitch. At Busch Stadium the Cardinals welcome the Nationals and thunderstorms are forecasted at various point throughout the day/evening.
The wind will be blowing straight out to center field (10-13 miles per hour) at Camden Yards for tonights game between the Orioles and the visiting Rays. The total is currently 11.
There will also be a strong hitter’s wind (15-16 miles per hour) blowing out to left-center at Citi Field, where the Mets will be entertaining the Phillies. The total is currently at 8.5.
The most notable wind will be a gusty hitter’s wind (16-18 miles per hour) at Oakland coliseum. The total for todays game between the Braves and Athletics is 8.5.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
NY Yankees (42-35) at Houston (54-26)
Scheduled rotation: Pineda (7-4) vs. McCullers (7-1), Montgomery (6-4) vs. Martes (2-0), Severino (5-3) vs. Fiers (5-3)
Series price: Astros -150, Yankees +135
This should have been a nice match-up between first-place squads, but the Yankees (-3.1 units) blew it by going 4-12 over their last 16 games. Still, it's a match-up of the top scoring teams in the American League with both averaging 5.6 runs a game. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees own a .226 batting average and their stellar bullpen is imploding with a 6.75 ERA. The Astros (+18.8 units) are batting .303 over the same span, winning eight of 10. Houston just keeps rolling along with baseball's best record and highest batting average (.284). They've gone 39-17 in their last 56 games. They took three out of four in May at Yankee Stadium, and of course they took the first game of that series. That's what Houston does. They get on opponents quickly out of the gate going 17-8 in the first games of series this season. The Yankees have shown they are a much different team on the road (18-22) and Houston hasn't shown any signs of slowing the machine down. Laying -150 looks cheap here.
Boston (44-35) at Toronto (37-41)
Scheduled rotation: Fister (0-1) vs. Estrada (4-6), Sale (10-3) vs. Liriano (4-3), Pomeranz (7-4) vs. Biagini (2-7)
Series price: Red Sox -110, Blue Jays +100
The Red Sox (-1.6) are right where they were expected to be when the season started: first-place in the A.L. East. The Blue Jays (-12.8 ) have been a major disappointment and sit in last place, 6.5 games behind Boston. The Jays average only 4.2 runs a game, which is the second-least in the A.L. behind the Royals (4.0). Surprisingly, this is only the second series between the division rivals this season. Boston took two of three at Toronto in April. The Jays have lost six of their last nine and because of their hitting woes, five of their last six stayed Under the total. Boston is also also on a run of staying Under five of its last six. Saturday's game features Chris Sale, who is now listed at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as a prohibitive 1-to-5 favorite to win the A.L. Cy Young Award. Something to think about is Sale's lack of stamina in the second half last season. After starting 14-2, the White Sox proceeded to lose 10 of his final 14 starts with most of the losses being his fault.
Chicago Cubs (40-39) at Cincinnati (33-45)
Scheduled rotation: Montgomery (1-4) vs. Feldman (6-5), Butler (4-2) vs. TBA, Arrieta (7-6) vs. Adleman (5-4)
Series price: Cubs -145, Reds +130
The Cubs have been the third-worst bet of the season at -15.2 units and its team rating at the Las Vegas sports books has been sliding weekly. It dropped even lower since Kris Bryant (8 cents) hurt his ankle and has been out the last two nights. Only the Padres have a lower batting average (.228) than the Cubs (.238). The Cubs starting rotation hasn't picked up the slack, either, coming with a chunky 4.48 ERA. But the get well tonic might be the Reds (-7.3), who they've beaten 38 of the past 51 meetings, including five of six this season. Cincinnati has the worst starting rotation (6.29 ERA) in baseball and have lost 15 of its last 19 games. The Cubs have lost 15 of their last 22 road games, but come off a split at Washington where they won the last game in dramatic fashion.
Washington (47-32) at St. Louis (37-41)
Scheduled rotation: Roark (6-5) vs. Leake (4-3), Gonzalez (7-2) vs. Wacha (4-3), Scherzer (9-5) vs. Martinez (6-6)
Series price: Nationals -110, Cardinals +100
The Cardinals (-10.6) have to come into this series feeling good about their current play winning four of their last five, which included winning a series at Arizona. The Diamondbacks hadn't lost a series at home since April. St. Louis comes fully loaded with their best arms and while they lost two of three at Washington in April, they did manage to beat Max Scherzer. Washington has won eight of the past 11 meetings, but the Cardinals have won 21 of the last 28 meetings at Busch Stadium. The key to this series will be Friday's game with Tanner Roark going for the Nats. They've lost his past four starts. The Nats have gone 17-9 in the first game of a series this season. Washington leads the National League in hitting (.278) and lead baseball in runs scored (446), but they're such big favorites nightly that their net profits are in the negative at -0.1.
Colorado (47-34) at Arizona (50-30)
Scheduled rotation: Gray (0-0) vs. Ray (8-3), Chatwood (6-8 ) vs. Greinke (9-4), Marquez (5-4) vs. Walker (6-3)
Series price: Diamondbacks -170, Rockies +150
The Rockies (+14.8 ) had been the most profitable team in baseball, but now that label goes to Arizona (+19.5) just because the Rockies have lost eight straight games. The awful run actually was started by Arizona winning the final two of a three games series at Coors Field, which allowed the Dodgers to take over first-place in the N.L. West from Colorado. The Rockies had a shot to take the lead back in their next series, but then lost three straight at Dodger Stadium. Then things got worse when they lost three at AT&T Park to the last-place Giants. Now here they are -- staggering -- playing against one of the best home teams in baseball (30-12) who have the second-best record in the league. The good news for the Rockies is that they get Jon Gray back into the rotation on Friday. He's been out since mid-April. The Rockies had won all three of his starts up to that point. The Rockies lead the season series, 5-4, but Arizona is on a run of winning 16 of its last 21 games.
LA Dodgers (53-28) at San Diego (33-46)
Scheduled rotation: Wood (8-0) vs. Richard (5-7), Hill (4-4) vs. TBA, Maeda (6-3) vs. Chacin (6-7)
Series price: Dodgers -250, Padres +220
The Dodgers (+12.9) have been on a an incredible roll winning 38 of their last 52 with an insane combination of great hitting and shutdown pitching. They lead baseball with a +1.7 run differential and their starters have the best ERA (3.43). The Padres (-5.9) aren't in last-place because the Giants are so bad, but they're last in almost every offense category beginning with runs scored (3.4 per game) and batting average (.228). The Dodgers have won five of six from the Padres this season, including both games at Petco Park. The best news here for the Padres is that they've won seven of their last nine home games and they don't have to face Clayton Kershaw.
Minnesota (40-37) at Kansas City (38-39)
Scheduled rotation: Santana (10-4) vs. Vargas (11-3), Berrios (7-2) vs. Hammel (4-6), Jorge (0-0) vs, Skoglund (1-1), Santiago (4-7) vs. Strahm (2-5)
Series price: Royals -115, Twins -105
This will be a four-game series with a day/night double-header on Saturday. The Twins (+7.0) follow-up to their sweep at Cleveland didn't go so well losing three of four at Boston. But their 24-12 road record is still quite impressive and they sit 1.5 games behind Cleveland in the A.L. Central. Kansas City (+3.6) is 3.5 games behind and showing signs offensively of being real contenders in a mediocre division. However, Minnesota has won eight of the past nine meetings. Friday's winner will tilt the scales in this series with an All-Star match-up of Ervin Santana vs. Jason Vargas. Quietly, Vargas is having his best season ever leading the A.L. in wins (11) and ERA (2.29). If thinking Cy Young, the Westgate has him at 12-to-1 odds to win as the third choice behind Sale (1/5) and Dallas Keuchel (3/1).