MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, May 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Marlins
Foltynewicz is 0-4, 5.20 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Urena blanked the Mets for six innings (63 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Braves lost their last six games; they’re 3-8 in series openers. Over is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games. Miami lost six of its last seven games; they’re 1-4 in home series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Phillies @ Nationals
Pivetta is 0-2, 5.40 in his first two MLB starts (under 1-0-1).
Roark is 1-1, 3.82 in his last five starts (over 5-1-1).
Phillies lost seven of their last eight games; they’re 2-4 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Nationals lost three of their last four games, all of which went over total.
Mets @ Brewers
Harvey 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts (over 4-1-1).
Garza is 1-0, 2.57 in his last two starts (under 2-1).
Mets won five of last seven games, are 4-0 in road series openers. Over is 12-3 in their last fifteen games. Milwaukee won three of last four games; they’re 4-2 in home series openers. Over is 12-3 in last 15 games at Miller Park.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Butler is making first ’17 start; he is 6-16, 6.50 in 28 MLB starts, all with Colorado- he is 1-0, 1.17 in five AAA starts this year.
Leake is 4-1, 1.79 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1).
Cubs lost five of last six games; they’re 3-8 in series openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. St Louis won its last eight games; they’re 5-6 in series openers, 3-3 at home. Over is 13-1-1 in their last 15 games.
Dodgers @ Rockies
Kershaw is 4-1, 2.27 in his last five starts (over 4-3).
Chatwood is 2-2, 5.79 in his last four starts, three of which went over the total.
Dodgers won five of their last six games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Colorado won seven of its last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks
Glasnow is 1-2, 8.00 in six starts this year (over 4-1-1).
Corbin is 1-3, 5.52 in his last five starts (under 3-1 in his last four).
Pirates lost their last five games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Arizona lost three of last five games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Reds @ Giants
Feldman is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts; he threw a CG shutout against the Giants Sunday. Over is 3-3-1 in his starts this season.
Cueto is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts (over 5-1-1).
Reds won seven of their last eight games; six of their last seven road games all went over. San Francisco lost six of last seven games; under is 11-2-2 in their home games.
American League
Houston @ New York
McCullers is 0-1, 3.93 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four outings.
Montgomery is 1-1, 4.08 in his last three starts (over 4-1).
Astros won nine of last 11 games; over is 9-6 in their road games. New York won six of last eight games; seven of New York’s last eight home games went over total.
Twins @ Indians
Santana is 5-1, 1.72 in seven starts this year (over 2-2-3).
Tomlin is 2-3, 7.12 in six starts this season (over 4-2).
Twins won seven of last eight road games, are 4-1 in road series openers. Over is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games; they lost last five series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Bergman is making his first ’17 start; he is 7-9, 5.71 in 56 MLB games (15 starts, all with Colorado). He is 5-0, 2.17 in five AAA starts this season.
Biagini allowed one run in four IP (52 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Tampa Bay.
Mariners won four of their last five games. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Toronto won five of last six home games (under 4-1-1).
Rays @ Red Sox
Cobb is 1-1, 2.37 in his last three starts (over 4-3).
Porcello is 1-3, 3.04 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Tampa Bay lost four of last five games; they’re 5-7 in series openers, 3-2 on road. Rays’ last four road games stayed under total. Red Sox are 4-5 in last nine home games, 1-5 in last six series openers. Four of their last five games went over.
A’s @ Rangers
Hahn is 1-2, 3.64 in five starts this year; over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Cashner 0-3, 3.29 in five starts this year (under 4-0-1). Texas scored 13 runs in the five games.
Oakland won four of last five games; they’re 1-4 in road series openers. Over is 9-3 in their last dozen games. Rangers are 9-4 in last 13 home games; under is 12-2-1 in their last 15 home games.
Orioles @ Royals
Bundy is 4-0, 1.95 in his last five starts (under 4-3).
Duffy is 0-3, 7.16 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
Baltimore won six of its last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Royals won three of last four games; they’re 3-3 in home series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
Tigers @ Angels
Zimmerman is 2-0, 6.48 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over. Tigers scored 38 runs in his last four starts.
Shoemaker is 1-2, 4.63 in his last four starts (over 4-3).
Detroit won three of last four games; over is 13-3-1 in their road games. Angels lost seven of last nine games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Interleague
Padres @ White Sox
Chacin is 1-3, 10.71 in four road starts (over 3-1).
Gonzalez is 0-2, 6.39 in his last two starts (over 3-3).
San Diego lost seven of its last eight games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. White Sox lost their last five games; they’re 3-8 in series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Atl-Mia: Foltynewicz 0-5; Urena 1-0
Phil-Wsh: Pivetta 0-2; Roark 4-3
NY-Mil: Harvey 2-4; Garza 2-1
Chi-StL: Butler 0-0; Leake 4-2
LA-Col: Kershaw 5-2; Chatwood 3-4
Pitt-Az: Glasnow 4-2; Corbin 3-4
Cin-SF: Feldman 2-5; Cueto 5-2
American League
Hst-NY: McCullers 5-2; Montgomery 3-2
Min-Clev: Santana 5-2; Tomlin 3-3
Sea-Tor: Bergman 0-0; Biagini 1-0
TB-Bos: Cobb 2-5; Porcello 3-4
A’s-Tex: Hahn 2-3; Cashner 1-4
Balt-KC: Bundy 6-1; Duffy 2-5
Det-LAA: Zimmerman 3-3; Shoemaker 4-3
Interleague
SD-Chi: Chacin 3-4; Gonzalez 4-2
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Cardinals (6-0 last six)
St. Louis returns home following a perfect 6-0 road swing at Atlanta and Miami as the Cardinals have crawled out of a 3-9 hole to own a 19-14 record. The Cardinals have flown into first place of the NL Central as they host the rival Cubs in a critical series at Busch Stadium this weekend.
The defending champions are making their second trip to St. Louis this season after capturing two of the first three meetings with the Cardinals. Chicago has dropped five of its past six games to fall to .500, while the Cardinals pulled off a pair of late rallies to stun the Marlins to finish off a three-game sweep. During this six-game winning streak, the Cardinals plated five runs or more, while cashing the OVER five times.
Coldest team: Braves (2-8 last 10)
Remember when Atlanta won five consecutive games in mid-April? That streak is long-gone as the Braves are skidding out of control by dropping six in a row, including getting swept by the Astros and Cardinals. Amazingly, the Braves also put together a four-game hot streak towards the end of April, but the team is a dreadful 2-20 when removing those two winning stretches.
Atlanta heads to Miami to face a Marlins’ squad who is also struggling by losing eight of their past 10 games. Mike Foltynewicz is winless in five starts for the Braves, while coming off his worst start of the season by allowing seven earned runs in four innings of a 10-0 rout by the Cardinals. The only piece of good news for Atlanta is Miami enters the weekend at 1-7 in its previous eight home contests.
Hottest pitcher: Mike Leake, Cardinals (4-1, 1.79 ERA)
Leake has been the anchor of this St. Louis resurgence following the slow start as the veteran right-hander has compiled six quality outings this season. Leake is coming off a victory at Atlanta his last time out, while allowing only one home run in his six starts, which is a dramatically better pace than in 2016 when he gave up 20 gopher balls in 30 starts.
The former Reds and Giants’ hurler has yielded one earned run in each of his two home starts this season, but Leake struggled In against the Cubs last season. St. Louis posted a 1-3 record in Leake’s four outings against Chicago, while allowing 16 runs in 22.1 innings, including a pair of defeats at Busch Stadium.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Harvey, Mets (2-2, 5.14 ERA)
In 2015, Harvey was the toast of New York by helping lead the Mets to the National League pennant and a 13-8 regular season record. In 2016, the right-hander slumped to 4-10 with a bloated ERA of 4.86 before his season ended in June due to injury. Fast-forward to 2017 and the Dark Knight is winless in his last four outings, while coming off a brief three-day suspension for a violation of team rules.
Harvey returns to the mound at Milwaukee after allowing 12 earned runs in 9.2 innings of two losses to the Braves, as he faces a team outside the NL East for the first time this season. Since the start of 2016, the Mets have posted a 4-9 record in Harvey’s 13 road starts, but one of those victories came at Miller Park last season when New York held off Milwaukee, 2-1 as short underdogs last June.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (7-2 last nine)
Philadelphia’s pitching was lit up the last two games in losses to Seattle by yielding 21 runs. The Phillies managed to score 15 runs in those defeats, but fell to 1-7 in the last eight games due to dreadful pitching. In this recent stretch, the Fightin’ Phils have given up at least five runs seven times in the last eight contests.
Philadelphia and Washington are playing their fourth series of the season this weekend as the teams hook up at Nationals Park. The Phillies face Tanner Roark in the opener as the Nationals’ right-hander has the cashed the OVER in three straight starts even though he limited Philadelphia to two unearned runs in six innings the last time he saw them in a 6-5 defeat.
Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (6-1-1 last eight)
Pittsburgh’s offense continues to struggle after racking up only one hit in Thursday’s 2-1 defeat at Arizona. The Pirates have been held to two runs or fewer in seven of the last nine games, while dropping five straight overall. The UNDER is 2-4 in Game 2’s on the road for Pittsburgh this season, as the Bucs have scored one run or less three times in these contests.
The Pirates are hitting only .204 against left-handed pitching this season as they face southpaw Patrick Corbin on Friday in Arizona. Pittsburgh owns a 5-2 record towards the UNDER against left-handed starting hurlers, but right-hander Tyler Glasnow is 4-0-1 to the OVER in his previous five starts.
Matchup to watch: Astros vs. Yankees
Houston and New York could be on a collision course to meet in the postseason. The Astros held off the Yankees in the first meeting on Thursday, 3-2 behind another strong performance from Dallas Keuchel, who tossed six innings and allowed one run, while striking out nine batters to improve to 6-0. New York made it interesting in the ninth inning by creeping within one run on a Gary Sanchez RBI single, but Jacoby Ellsbury was thrown out at the plate to end the game.
The Astros look to extend their winning streak to five as Lance McCullers, Jr. takes the mound. McCullers, Jr. is winless in three road starts this season, but is coming off his best away outing by allowing two hits and one run in seven innings of a 2-1 defeat to the Angels. The right-hander beat the Yankees last season at home, 4-1, while striking out 10 batters in six innings of work.
The Yankees counter with southpaw Jordan Montgomery, who beat the Cubs as a road underdog last Saturday, 11-6. Montgomery has given up three earned runs in four of five starts, while New York owns a 2-1 mark in his three home outings. The Yankees have lost consecutive home games only once this season, while the Astros are 0-3 in their three road games off a series opening victory.
Betcha didn’t know: The Dodgers look to bounce back after falling to the Rockies on Thursday, 10-7. Clayton Kershaw heads to the mound for Los Angeles as he seen plenty of success at Coors Field in his career. Since 2013, the Dodgers are 7-1 in his last eight starts in Denver, but the only loss came last month in a 4-2 defeat as a -200 favorite. Kershaw opened up as a -200 favorite for Friday’s opener against the red-hot Rockies.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-200) at Rockies
Biggest public underdog: Mariners (+115) at Blue Jays
Biggest line move: Astros (-120 to -130) at Yankees
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
After five straight seasons of making the playoffs, which included a 2011 World Series Championship banner, the St. Louis Cardinals missed out last season. Things looked bleak when they started 3-9 this season which caused many to wonder if we were seeing the demise of a great franchise with the Cardinal-way being diminished, but they fought back strong going 16-5 to take over first-place in the National League Central.
The World Champion Chicago Cubs are 17-17 in fourth-place and they renew their storied rivalry with the Cardinals this weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are slight -115 favorites to win the three-game series.
Before we start talking about what's wrong with the Cubs, let's talk about what's right with the Cardinals. The only problem with that is that there isn't a lot of positives to talk about other than a few players. They aren't the greatest fielding team (27 errors), they don't hit with authority (.261, 35 homers) and their bullpen has blown four of 18 save opportunities.
But what they do have is a manager in Mike Matheny that somehow makes it all works and instills the franchise pride into everyone to make it one successful unit. He's become one of my favorite managers right up there with Bruce Bochy and Buck Showalter.
The best attribute for the Cardinals so far has been its starting rotation, which at the beginning of the season was considered one of their weaknesses. Their starters have the the fifth-best ERA (3.53) and allow opponents to hit only .251. The MVP of the entire team so far has been Mike Leake (4-1), who starts Friday night against Eddie Butler. Leake has allowed only eight runs in six starts and has served up only one homer. Four of his six starts have stayed Under the total. In 23 career starts against the Cubs, Leake is 9-5 with a 3.52 ERA.
On the offensive side, 1B Matt Carpenter is leading the team with seven homers and 22, but the most exciting revelation for the team has been 3B Jedd Gyorko batting .351 with six home runs. Gyorko had a career-high 30 homers last season, but had only 59 RBIs and batted .243. His best batting average came as a rookie in 2013 at San Diego where he hit .249.
Important notes for this season begins with OF Stephen Piscotty and SS Jhonny Peralta both being placed on the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday. OF Dexter Fowler is also dealing with a shoulder injury and could possibly miss time against his former team this weekend. The combination of the trio is worth up to 10 cents to the team rating.
As for the Cubs, they'll be just fine. They'll make the playoffs again and make a serious push to win back-to-back titles. Some of the key components like Jake Arrieta (5.35 ERA), Kyle Schwarder (.195), Anthony Rizzo (.218), Addison Russell (.227) and Ben Zobrist (.222) have struggled with consistency, but there's no need to sound the alarm just yet. For bettors, they've been the third worst bet in baseball at -8.3 units of profit, just ahead of Toronto (-8.8 ) and San Francisco (-14.1).
The bottom line for the Cubs is that repeating is tough. We haven't seen any team do it since 2000 with the Yankees and we haven't seen a National League team do it since the 1976 Reds. Those are two epic teams with rosters that stand the test of time. Are the Cubs in that class? I really believe they can be, but I like their chances better if they get some more bullpen help. Everything else in Wrigleyville should iron itself over the summer.
Scheduled Rotation: Eddie Butler vs. Mike Leake, Jon Lester vs. Carlos Martinez, Jake Arrieta vs. Adam Wainwright
Here's a look at the prices and rotations of series that begin on Friday:
Atlanta (11-20) at Miami (13-20)
Series Price: Marlins -155, Braves +135
Scheduled Rotation: Foltynewicz(0-4) vs. Urena (1-0), Teheran (2-3) vs. Volquez (0-4), Dickey (3-2) vs. Straily (1-3)
Betting Notes: Braves are 5-11 in last 16 road games; the 'over' is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings.
Philadelphia (13-19) at Washington (22-12)
Series Price: Nationals -335, Phillies +270
Scheduled Rotation: Pivetta (0-2) vs. Roark (3-1), Velasquez (2-3) vs. Gonzalez (3-1), Hellickson (4-1) vs. Scherzer (4-2)
Betting Notes: Phillies have gone 'over' in 10 of their past 11 road games; Nationals are 17-5 in past 22 meetings.
NY Mets (16-17) at Milwaukee (18-17)
Series Price: Mets -120, Brewers +100
Scheduled Rotation: Harvey (2-2) vs. Garza (1-0), Gsellman (2-2) vs. Davies (3-2), deGrom (2-1) vs. Peralta (4-2)
Betting Notes: Brewers have gone 'over' in 12 of past 15 home games; Mets have won six of the past eight meetings.
Minnesota (17-14) at Cleveland (18-15)
Series Price: Indians -260, Twins +210
Scheduled Rotation: Santana (5-1) vs. Tomlin (2-3), Berrios (0-0) vs. Clevinger (1-0), Santaigo (4-1) vs. Bauer (2-4)
Betting Notes: Fifteen of the past 20 meetings in Cleveland have gone 'over' the total. However, Cleveland has been the best 'under' team in baseball (21-10-2).
Tampa Bay (17-20) at Boston (18-16)
Series Price: Red Sox -235, Rays +195
Scheduled Rotation: Cobb (2-3) vs. Porcello (2-4), Snell (0-3) vs. Sale (3-2), Andriese (2-1) vs. Pomeranz (3-2)
Betting Notes: Tampa Bay has only won twice in its past 10 games at Fenway Park.
Oakland (16-18) at Texas (16-20)
Series Price: Rangers -145, Athletics +125
Scheduled Rotation: Hahn (1-2) vs. Cashner (0-3), Gray (0-1) vs. Martinez (0-2), Graveman (2-2) vs. Griffin (4-0)
Betting Notes: Oakland has won twice in its last 10 road games; Texas has stayed 'under' in 12 of its last 14 home games.
Baltimore (22-11) at Kansas City (13-21)
Series Price: Orioles -145, Royals +125
Scheduled Rotation: Bundy (5-1) vs. Duffy (2-3), Tillman (1-0) vs. Karns (2-2), Gausman (2-3) vs. Young (0-0)
Betting Notes: Baltimore has won 23 of Chris Tillman's last 31 starts and the 'under' has connected in 17 of those wins, including his first start this season on Sunday.
San Diego (13-23) at Chicago White Sox (15-17)
Series Price: White Sox -190, Padres +165
Scheduled Rotation: Chacin (3-3) vs. Gonzalez (3-2), Cahill (3-2) vs. Covey (0-3), Weaver (0-4) vs. Quintana (2-5)
Betting Notes: The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games.
Astros, Yankees meet in NY
By: StatFox.com
The Yankees will be looking to get back into the win column with a win over the Astros on Friday.
The Astros and Yankees have been two of the best teams in baseball this season, so fans will be treated to a special night at Yankee Stadium on Friday. The Astros took the first game in this series, winning 3-2 behind an excellent outing from LHP Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees have now lost two straight coming into this one, and they’ll be hoping to get back on track here. The starters in this Friday night matchup will be RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 3.40 ERA, 50 K) for Houston and LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.81 ERA, 26 K) for New York. Both guys have been fantastic this season, so this could be an interesting battle on the mound. Over the last three seasons, the Astros are 5-3 against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Five of those eight games have gone Over the total. Houston is 23-8 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Astros are, however, facing a Yankees team that is 40-20 against the money line in home games in night games over the past two seasons.
The Astros picked up an impressive victory in New York on Thursday, and Lance McCullers Jr. will now try to shut down the Yankees on Friday. The righty has been great this season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his seven starts. He continues to miss bats at an impressive rate, striking out just over seven batters per game. He’ll need to keep his pitches down in this one, though. It’s incredibly easy to hit homers in Yankee Stadium, and with his pitch velocity it won’t take much contact for the Yankees to take advantage of his mistakes. Offensively, SS Carlos Correa (.282 BA, 5 HR, 19 RBI) showed his ability to take advantage of the short porch in right field on Thursday. He went 2-for-3 with a homer and two RBI in that game, and he would really spark his team if he can do so again. He is on fire coming into this one, as he has seen his average rise from .226 on May 2 to .282 on May 11. 2B Jose Altuve (.294 BA, 5 HR, 15 RBI) will also have a chance to spark his team here. His average is a bit down this season, but a hot streak is clearly coming soon for the 27-year-old. That just might begin on Friday.
The Yankees have lost two straight games heading into Friday and Jordan Montgomery is going to do his best to prevent that streak from reaching three. The lefty has been great for New York this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all five of his starts. He doesn’t have the best stuff in the world, but he pitches effectively to contact. It is, however, important that Montgomery keeps his walks down in this one. He has walked eight batters over his past two starts, and that is not going to cut it in this one. Offensively, the Yankees are going to be hoping that OF Aaron Judge (.308 BA, 13 HR, 28 RBI) and C Gary Sanchez (.262 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI) can bring in some runs on Friday. Judge hasn’t homered in five games for New York, which almost seems like a long amount of time with the way he has hit this season. Sanchez, meanwhile, is pretty hot since returning to the lineup.