MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, May 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Reds @ Phillies
Adleman is 1-1, 10.97 in his last three starts (over 4-2).
Nola is 2-1, 3.52 in four starts this season (over 2-2).
Reds lost nine of last 12 games; they’re 4-3 in road series openers. Eight of last ten Cincy games went over the total. Philly is 2-9 in its last 11 games, 2-5 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Mets @ Pirates
deGrom is 3-0, 4.35 in his last five starts; under is 4-0 in his home starts.
Kuhl is 0-2, 5.57 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
New York lost three of last four games; they’re 9-6 in series openers, 4-2 on road. Over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 road games. Pirates won four of last five home games; they’re 3-4 in home series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Padres @ Nationals
Perdomo is 0-2, 6.27 in seven starts this season (over 4-3).
Scherzer is 1-2, 3.94 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
San Diego won three of its last four games; they’re 2-6 in road series openers. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Washington won three of its last four games; they’re 6-2 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in Nationals’ last five games.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Godley is 1-1, 2.18 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Guerra hasn’t pitched since Opening Day, when he allowed two runs in three IP (46 PT) against the Rockies. He was 0-2, 3.97 in two AAA rehab starts.
Arizona won nine of last ten games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Milwaukee lost its last four games; over is 16-5 in their last 21 games at Miller Park.
Cardinals @ Rockies
Martinez is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
Senzatela is 3-0, 5.32 in his last four starts; Colorado is 4-1 in his home starts. His last six starts all went over the total.
St Louis lost five of last seven games; over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 road games. Cardinals are 2-4 in road series openers. Colorado is off a 7-3 road trip; they’re 5-2 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in last ten games at Coors Field.
Cubs @ Dodgers
Arrieta is 0-3, 11.57 in his last three road starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
Wood is 4-0, 1.52 in his last five starts; he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 20.2 IP. Over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts.
Cubs won their last three games, are 3-4 in road series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Los Angeles won seven of last nine home games; last six Dodger games went over the total. LA is 6-2 in home series openers.
Braves @ Giants
Garcia is 0-2, 5.12 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Cain is 3-0, 1.19 in four home starts; his last five starts overall went over.
Atlanta is 2-3 in its last five games but won four of last five on road; they’re 4-5 in road series openers. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Giants lost last three games, are 4-2 in home series openers. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games.
American League
Rangers @ Blue Jays
Griffin is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts (over 6-1).
Bolsinger is 0-2, 6.89 in his last three starts (over 2-1).
Texas lost four of last five games after a 10-game win streak; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Rangers are 3-5 in road series openers. Toronto won its last three games; they’re 2-5 in home series openers. Over is 3-1 in their last four home games.
A’s @ New York
Graveman is 0-0, 3.66 in his last three starts (under 5-3).
Tanaka is 1-2, 13.89 in his last three starts (over 7-2).
Oakland is 2-8 in its last ten road games, 1-6 in road series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten road tilts. New York won three of last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games. NY is 5-2 in home series openers.
Royals @ Indians
Kennedy is 0-2, 4.39 in his last five starts; his last three starts went over the total.
Clevinger is 2-1, 1.59 in three starts this year (under 3-0).
Royals lost six of last nine games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Indians lost five of last seven home games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.
Mariners @ Red Sox
Gallardo is 1-2, 7.00 in his last five starts, last three of which went over.
Rodriguez is 3-0, 2.61 in his last six starts (under 6-2).
Mariners lost 10 of last 14 games, are 2-6 in road series openers; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Boston won its last four games; over is 9-2 in last 11 Red Sox games.
Tigers @ White Sox
Farmer is making his first ’17 start; he is 0-6, 6.84 in 32 big league games (8 starts). He is 1-3, 4.12 in nine AAA starts this season. Boyd is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Former Tiger Pelfrey is 1-4, 5.46 in six starts this year (over 3-3). Danish is making his first MLB start; he had three short relief stints LY. He is 1-3, 3.15 in eight AAA starts this season.
Tigers lost five of last seven games; they’re 5-3 in road series openers. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. White Sox lost their last three games; they’re 1-5 in home series openers. Over is 10-4-1 in their last fifteen games.
Rays @ Twins
Archer is 1-3, 4.35 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight.
Santiago is 1-1, 7.07 in his last three starts; five of his last six starts went over.
Tampa Bay won six of last nine games; their last five games stayed under. Rays are 4-3 in road series openers. Minnesota won three of last four games; they’re 5-2 in home series openers. Twins’ last four games stayed under the total.
Orioles @ Astros
Gausman is 1-1, 5.79 in his last five starts, four of which went over.
Musgrove is 2-3, 5.76 in his last five starts; Astros are 1-5 in his home starts (under 4-2).
Baltimore lost its last four games; they’re 3-4 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Houston won three of its last four games; they’re 6-2 in home series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Interleague
Angels @ Marlins
Chavez is 2-1, 4.74 in his last four starts (under 5-4).
Straily is 1-1, 2.04 in his last three starts (over 5-3-1).
Angels are 4-8 in last dozen road games, 3-5 in road series openers; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Miami is 4-15 in its last 19 games, 1-6 in home series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Cin-Phil: Adleman 3-3; Nola 2-2
NY-Pitt: deGrom 5-4; Kuhl 3-6
SD-Wsh: Perdomo 2-5; Scherzer 5-4
Az-Mil: Godley 2-2; Guerra 0-1
StL-Col: Martinez 5-4; Senzatela 7-2
Chi-LA: Arrieta 5-4; Wood 4-3
Atl-SF: Garcia 4-4; Cain 5-4
American League
Tex-Tor: Griffin 6-1; Bolsinger 0-3
A’s-NY: Graveman 4-4; Tanaka 5-4
KC-Clev: Kennedy 1-6; Clevinger 2-1
Sea-Bos: Gallardo 3-6; Rodriguez 6-2
Det-Chi: Farmer 0-0 Boyd 3-6; Pelfrey 2-4 Danish 0-0
TB-Minn: Archer 5-5; Santiago 5-4
Balt-Hst: Gausman 5-5; Musgrove 4-5
Interleague
LAA-Mia: Chavez 4-5; Straily 4-5
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Phil: Adleman 3-6; Nola 0-4
NY-Pitt: deGrom 3-9; Kuhl 4-9
SD-Wsh: Perdomo 4-7; Scherzer 2-9
Az-Mil: Godley 0-4; Guerra 0-1
StL-Col: Martinez 2-9; Senzatela 4-9
Chi-LA: Arrieta 3-9; Wood 1-7
Atl-SF: Garcia 2-8; Cain 4-9
American League
Tex-Tor: Griffin 2-7; Bolsinger 2-3
A’s-NY: Graveman 4-8; Tanaka 5-9
KC-Clev: Kennedy 2-7; Clevinger 0-3
Sea-Bos: Gallardo 5-9; Rodriguez 2-8
Det-Chi: Farmer 0-0 Boyd 2-9; Pelfrey 2-6 Danish 0-0
TB-Minn: Archer 2-10; Santiago 1-9
Balt-Hst: Gausman 3-10; Musgrove 2-9
Interleague
LAA-Mia: Chavez 0-9; Straily 0-9
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 24-11 AL, favorites -$57
AL @ NL– 25-23 AL, favorites +$399
Total: 49-34 AL, favorites +$342
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 18-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 28-18
Total: Over 46-38-1
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Diamondbacks (9-1 last 10)
Arizona began its road trip on a solid note by shutting out Milwaukee, 4-0 on Thursday to capitalize off a three-game home sweep of the White Sox. The D-backs moved within one game of the Rockies for first place in the NL West, while improving to 5-0 in its last five road series openers. For the third time in the last four road games, Arizona has held its opponent to one run or less, as southpaw Robbie Ray struck out nine batters and gave up two hits in seven innings against the Brewers.
Zack Godley (not Greinke) looks to keep the D-backs hissing on Friday as the right-hander is coming off three straight quality starts. Godley is winless in his lone road start, falling to the Padres last Sunday in a 5-1 defeat by allowing three earned runs in seven innings of work. Arizona has compiled a 1-3 record in Game 2’s of a road series this season after winning the opener.
Coldest team: Orioles (3-7 last 10)
Baltimore has gone backwards lately since a wild 13-11 in 13 innings at Detroit on May 16. The O’s have dropped six of their last eight games, while getting swept at home in a three-game set by the surprising Twins. In three losses during this current four-game skid, Baltimore has scored three runs or less, while trying to improve on a 1-6 record in their last seven games away from Camden Yards. Things don’t get easier on Friday with a trip to Houston to face the AL West-leading Astros, as Baltimore posted a 1-6 mark against Houston in 2016.
Hottest pitcher: Alex Wood, Dodgers (5-0, 1.88 ERA)
On a staff spearheaded by Cy Young favorite Clayton Kershaw, another Dodgers’ southpaw is making waves on the mound. Wood has won four consecutive decisions, while not allowing a run in his last three starts, a total of 18.1 innings. Prior to a 7-2 victory over Miami his last time out, Wood posted consecutive double-digit strikeout performances against the Pirates and Rockies. Wood faces the Cubs in an NLCS rematch in the series opener as the former Brave allowed three hits and two runs in 3.2 innings of a 3-2 defeat at Wrigley Field last month.
Coldest pitcher: Ian Kennedy, Royals (0-4, 4.06 ERA)
The right-hander won 11 games in his first season in Kansas City in 2016, but is winless so far through seven starts in 2017. To make matters worse, the Royals own a dreadful 1-6 record when Kennedy takes the mound, including an 0-3 record away from Kansas City. The Royals travel to Cleveland on Friday as Kennedy dropped each of his last three decisions to the Indians last season after winning the first two starts.
Biggest OVER run: Red Sox (10-2 last 12)
Even though Boston finished UNDER the total in Thursday’s victory over Texas to pull off the three-game home sweep, the Red Sox are still riding a massive OVER run. The offense posted six runs on Thursday after scoring 20 runs in the first two wins against the Rangers, while putting up 12 runs in the series finale at Oakland this past Sunday. Boston is currently on a 6-1 OVER stretch at Fenway Park, as the Mariners invade Beantown. Seattle had scored one run in five straight games before a mini-explosion in Thursday’s 4-2 victory at Washington, while five of seven matchups against Boston last season went UNDER the total.
Biggest UNDER run: Rays (5-0 last five)
All four games of Tampa Bay’s series against Los Angeles finished UNDER the total, as the Rays allowed a total of two runs in the final two victories. Prior to this 5-0 UNDER run, Tampa Bay eclipsed the OVER in its previous eight games, including six straight OVERS away from Tropicana Field. The UNDER streak may come to an end on Friday even though staff ace Chris Archer heads to the mound. Archer has hit the OVER in seven of his 10 starts this season, as the Rays are 3-1 to the OVER in his four road outings with Tampa Bay heading to Minnesota.
Matchup to watch: Cubs vs. Dodgers
Los Angeles grabbed a 2-1 advantage over Chicago in the 2016 NLCS before the Cubs won the next three games to capture the pennant. The Cubs head out to Chavez Ravine for a three-game series as Chicago took two of three from Los Angeles at Wrigley Field in mid-April.
Chicago finished off a 7-2 homestand after grabbing the final three contests against San Francisco. 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta heads to the mound as the right-hander ended a two-game skid by beating Milwaukee in his last start, 13-6 as a -200 favorite. Arrieta scattered five hits and allowed one unearned run in six innings as he is winless in his last three starts on the highway.
The Dodgers continue their long homestand after taking a pair of series from the Marlins and Cardinals. Alex Wood’s credentials were mentioned above as the hottest pitcher taking the hill on Friday, as the Los Angeles left-hander is 3-0 in three starts at Dodger Stadium. Since getting traded to the Dodgers in 2015, Wood winless in three outings against the Cubs, while all three games finished UNDER the total.
Betcha didn’t know: The Blue Jays face the Rangers in a rematch of the 2016 ALDS as Toronto swept the three-game set from Texas. Toronto got off to a horrible start this season before climbing back to 21-26 as the Jays have dominated at home against American League opponents of late. The Jays have won eight of their last nine at home within the league, while Toronto is expected to activate the power hitters from the left side of their infield with Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki due to come off the disabled list.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-260) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Cubs (+125) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Blue Jays (-125 to -140) vs. Rangers
Mariners face sizzling Red Sox
By: StatFox,com
The Red Sox will be going for their fifth straight win when they host the Mariners on Friday.
The Mariners are really struggling right now and can badly use a win against the Red Sox on Friday night. Seattle beat Washington 4-2 on Thursday, but the team had lost five straight heading into that one. The Mariners can’t afford to go through another spell like that, as they are still hoping to make the playoffs this season and can’t allow themselves to dig this hole any further. The Red Sox, meanwhile, will be showing no sympathy for the struggling Mariners. Boston is looking to win its fifth straight game, and this team desperately wants to get to the top of the AL East standings. The starters in this Friday night battle are going to be RHP Yovani Gallardo (2-4, 5.84 ERA, 36 K) for Seattle and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3-1, 3.10 ERA, 55 K) for Boston. One odd trend that favors the Mariners in this game is the fact that Gallardo’s teams are 12-4 against the money line when facing AL East opponents since 1997. Seattle is, however, a lousy 6-18 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
The Mariners are going to be hungry for a victory on Friday, but they will need a good start from Gallardo in order for that to happen. The righty is coming off of his worst start of the season, as he gave up nine earned runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings of work against the White Sox on May 20. Gallardo had allowed just seven earned runs total in his previous three starts, so Seattle is definitely hoping that it was just a rough day for the veteran. Offensively, one guy that the Mariners will be counting on a big way is DH Nelson Cruz (.296 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI). Cruz has seen his average drop from .318 to .296 over the past 10 games, but he has homered in two of his past three contests. This matchup also happens to favor the 36-year-old, as Rodriguez is a mistake-prone lefty. Don’t be surprised if Cruz ends up homering in this one. He will, however, need help from guys like 2B Robinson Cano (.306 BA, 8 HR, 30 RBI) and SS Jean Segura (.335 BA, 4 HR, 20 RBI). Both superstars are having fantastic seasons, and they’ll need to be at their best here.
The Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound on Friday, and the lefty has been having a career year for Boston. Rodriguez has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his nine appearances this season. He has also struck out eight or more batters in three starts. His stuff is truly remarkable, but he must dial in on Friday. Rodriguez can struggle with control at times, and that can’t happen against a dangerous lineup like Seattle’s here. Offensively, SS Xander Bogaerts (.335 BA, 1 HR, 17 RBI) is somebody that should be able to step up and help Rodriguez by producing some runs. He has been insane this season, but has also been even better of late. In the series against Texas, Bogaerts was 7-for-14 with two doubles, a homer, and five RBI in three games. The Sox also have plenty of other weapons that can come through here.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Chicago Cubs (25-21) at LA Dodgers (28-20)
Scheduled Rotation: Arrieta (5-3) vs. Wood (5-0), Lackey (4-4) vs. McCarthy (4-1), Lester (3-2) vs. Kershaw (7-2)
Series Price: Dodgers -160, Cubs +135
Both these teams may end up in the National League Championship Series again like last season, but if you've been betting them every day your profits are in the minus. The Dodgers, eight games above .500, are -1.9 units on the season. The Cubs are four games above .500, but are -5.8 units.
They're the top two rated teams in the National League but aren't living up to expectations so far as we head into the final weekend of May. However, it's easily the most intriguing series of the weekend and Station Casinos has posted the Dodgers as short -160 favorites to take at least two of three at Dodger Stadium.
The World Series hangover for the Cubs appears to be coming to end. They've won three straight and thanks to the Brewers dropping five in a row and the Cardinals losing six of eight, the Cubs have finally reached first-place in the NL Central. They've gone 11-10 on the road and they'll find themselves underdogs in all three games over the weekend which closes out Sunday with a date against Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs are 4-14 in their last games as underdogs.
The Dodgers statistically look like the best team in baseball but they can't catch the first-place Rockies (MLB-best +15.7 units) or second-place Arizona (+11.7 units, second-best). Dodger Stadium is once again helping the home team have one of the best team ERA's in baseball and so far they're No. 1 at 3.37. They've also got 3B Justin Turner leading the majors with a .379 batting average. It's a tough lineup to face and they lead baseball with a +64 run differential.
Last season the Dodgers took a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, including a brilliant 1-0 win by Kershaw in Game 2, but the Cubs charged back to win the next three. The two teams met again in April with the Cubs taking two of three at Wrigley Field, a series that didn't feature Kershaw and did feature Jon Lester who isn't in the rotation this weekend.
The last four meetings have stayed 'under' the total and the run extends to eight of the past 11 meetings and 18 of the past 23. This season the Cubs have gone 28-16-2 to the 'over', which is the second best 'over' ratio in baseball behind the Mets (29-10-2).
The Dodgers are annually one of the best 'under' teams at home, but they're 13-12-1 to the 'over' this season while winning 18 of 26. Considering the pitching match-ups and how well the Dodgers play at home and the Cubs team rating sliding since the beginning of the season, -160 with the Dodgers to win the series appears cheap by about 20 cents.
Baltimore (25-20) at Houston (32-16)
Scheduled Rotation: Gausman (2-3) vs Musgrove (3-4), Miley (1-2) vs. Keuchel (7-0), Bundy (5-3) vs. Montgomery (2-3)
Series Price: Astros -260, Orioiles +215
Baltimore is an impressive 15-7 at home, but are just 10-13 on the road and currently ride a four game losing streak. Houston's +11.4 units of profit is the most in the American League. The 'under' has occurred in 13 of the past 19 meetings. When they met in almost the same weekend last season at Houston, the Astros pulled off the sweep and when they met in August the Astros took three of four at Camden Yards.
Texas (24-24) at Toronto (21-26)
Scheduled Rotation: Griffin (4-1) vs. Bolsinger (0-2), Darvish (5-2) vs. Estrada (3-2), Cashner (1-4) vs. Biagini (1-2)
Series Price: Blue Jays -160, Rangers +135
Toronto pulled off a 3-0 sweep against Texas in the American League Division Series last season and they've won seven of the past nine meetings. The Blue Jays are on a run right now of winning eight of 11 at home and keep note that they've won eight of their last 10 as a favorite. Following a 10-game winning streak, the Rangers have now lost four of their last five, including the Red Sox just completed three game sweep at Fenway Park. The biggest hope here is that we get Rougned Odor/Jose Bautista II.
Oakland (21-25) at NY Yankees (27-17)
Scheduled Rotation: Gravemand (2-2) vs. Tanaka (5-3), Manaea (2-3) vs. Sabathia (4-2), Triggs (5-3) vs. Pineda (5-2)
Series Price: Yankees -270
The Yankees are 15-7 at home while the A's are 6-15 on the road, which is part of the reason for such a high series price. Last season both teams were swept on the road. The A's won all three at Yankees Stadium in April and the Yankees returned the favor in May winning all four in Oakland. The A's are currently on a 16-6 'over' run.
Kansas City (19-27) at Cleveland (24-21)
Scheduled Rotation: Kennedy (0-4) vs. Clevinger (2-1), Vargas (5-3) vs. Salazar (3-4), Duffy (4-3) vs. Tomlin (2-6)
Series Price: Indians -275, Royals +230
The Royals get their top three starters on the mound this weekend, but the Royals have lost their last eight meetings in Cleveland. The two squads met in Kansas City earlier this month with the Indians taking two of three and all three stayed 'under' the number. The total is the theme to follow here as these are the two best 'under' teams in baseball. The Royals have lost six of their last nine, but the +270 to win the series is attractive just because of the KC starters.
Seattle (21-27) at Boston (25-21)
Scheduled Rotation: Gallardo (2-4) vs. Rodriguez (3-1), Lawrence (0-3) vs. Johnson (1-0), Bergman (1-2) vs. Porcello (3-5)
Series Price: Red Sox -270, Mariners +225
Over the total is the theme here with Boston going 'over' in 14 of its last 17 and the high side has gone 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings with Seattle at Fenway Park. Boston comes in on a four game win streak while Seattle has lost five of its last six.
Tampa Bay (25-25) at Minnesota (25-18)
Scheduled Rotation: Archer (3-3) vs. Santiago (4-2), Odorizzi (3-2) vs. Mejia (1-1), Cobb (4-4) vs. Santana (7-2)
Series Price: Rays -115, Twins -105
The Twins (+7.7 units) have to be the least talked about first-place team in baseball. It's likely because everyone has them in their pool to fade first among the division leaders. But they're holding steady at the top while the rest of the division plays .500 or less ball. Minnesota has won six of its last seven, including its last four which ended with a home sweep over Baltimore. The Rays also aren't getting talked about much but their 25-25 record is impressive compared to preseason expectations. They come in winning six of their last nine, including the last five staying 'under.' However, the 'over' has been the play in this series with 11 of the past 12 meetings going high. The Twins are hot and they're an underdog at home in the series with their ace anchoring on Sunday? I'll bite for sure.
St. Louis (23-21) at Colorado (31-18)
Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (3-3) vs. Senatela (6-1), Wainwright (4-3) vs. Freeland (5-2), Lynn (4-2) vs. Marquez (3-2)
Series Price: Rockies -130, Cardinals +110
The Cardinals have a better record on the road (11-8 ) than they do at home (12-13) and are currently on a 10-2 road run with the two losses coming on the just completed series loss at Dodger Stadium. The Cards have lost six of their last eight overall. The Rockies big key to success this season has been jumping out their opponents in Game 1 of a series going 12-3. The Cards have gone 5-10 in those situations. The series price is cheap with the Rockies by 15 cents.
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies (+103, 10.5)
At the start of the season many people believed this would be the year the Rockies would take a leap forward, but not many thought the leap was going to be this big. Colorado leads the NL West with a 31-18 record and they look to improve that record when they welcome the Cardinals to town Friday night to start a three-game weekend set.
The Rockies have always been known for their bats and this season is no different as they rank in the Top 10 in runs, average, OPS and home runs, but what is different is their young rotation.
Led by the likes of Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela, the Rockies pitching staff ranks 13th in ERA, 11th in WHIP and 11th in strikeouts.
It will be Senzatela toeing the rubber Friday night and while the rookie has faded a bit recently, it has mostly been an outstanding campaign. The 22-year-ld leads the Rockies in wins with six and owns a 3.67 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP, which is impressive seeing as over half his starts come at the very hitter friendly Coors Field.
The Cardinals will counter with Carlos Martinez. The Cardinals right-hander has been dealing, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in his last five starts and is coming off a nine inning, two-hit, shutout performance in his last outing against the Giants. St. Louis’ offense has fallen off a bit lately scoring just 3.9 runs per game over the last eight games.
The Rockies are also coming off a grueling 10-game road trip, where they mostly feasted on lesser pitching, but the bats could be in for a let-down after their first night at home in about a week and a half.
So, we have two good pitchers going at it, with an inflated Coors Field total, with a home team coming off a major road trip. Oh yeah, the Under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Colorado.
Pick: Under 10.5
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-114, 8.5)
The Milwaukee Brewers slugged their way to the top of the NL Central standings, but their bats have gone silent so far during their current home stand, scoring just 2.33 runs per game. The Brew Crew will continue their four-game set with the red-hot Diamondbacks Friday night after getting shutout 4-0 in the opener.
The Brewers offense has tailed off, just as first baseman Eric Thames has cooled off after a red-hot start. Thames hit 11 home runs in his first 22 games, but has just two in the 25 games since.
Milwaukee sends right-hander Junior Guerra to the mound to make just his second start of the season after straining his right calf in his first start back on April 3.
Arizona, which has won nine its last 10 ball games, has feasted on right-handed pitching this year. They have scored the second most runs in the MLB of right-handed pitching and are first in batting average and OPS when facing righties.
The Diamondbacks counter with Zack Godley. The 27-year-old right hander is coming off three consecutive quality starts and has a 2.45 ERA in his four starts this season.
Look for the Diamondbacks to stay hot.
Pick: Diamondbacks +104
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season to Date: 43-36-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox (3-1, 3.10 ERA, $358)
It might have taken longer than Red Sox fans wanted but Eduardo Rodriguez is starting to live up to the hype and become an integral piece of the starting pitching staff.
The southpaw has polished off six consecutive quality starts and ranks in the top 20 of our Starter Money Leaderboard at $+358. While his 3-1 record is deceiving, the Red Sox are 6-2 (2-0 at Fenway Park) when he takes to the rubber.
In his last six starts he has a BAA of .196 a ERA of 1.83 and only allowed two home runs. The Red Sox are -159 home chalk today against the Seattle Mariners.
Slumping: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (5-3, 6.56 ERA, $112)
It has been an awful two weeks for Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees when the righty takes to the mound. In his last two starts he’s went a combined 4.2 innings and allowed a staggering 14 earned runs.
The Yankees offence has hidden how awful Tanaka has been this season, in nine starts this season he has given up 13 home runs, has an ERA of 6.56 and a BAA of .310. And the over has cashed in seven of his nine starts.
Can he snap out of his slump today at Yankee Stadium? The total for Yankees hosting the Athletics is 9.5.
Friday's Top Trends
* Royals are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Indians -166
* Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. Angels +105
* Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Diamondbacks -105
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals -105
* Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Braves +107
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The only high chance of precipitation in Friday’s MLB forecast is in Detroit where the Tigers will host the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. There is a chance of thunderstorms developing throughout the day with a P.O.P. listed at 85 percent at first pitch, but that does decrease as the evening goes along. The line is currently off the board.
There will be a moderate hitters wind at Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees host the Athletics. It will be gusting out to right field around 10 miles per hour. The total is currently 9.5.
The wind will be blowing out to straight center field at a clip between 12-15 miles per hour at AT&T Park in San Francisco, where the Braves are in town for a weekend series. The total is currently at an even 8.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Chicago Cubs (25-21) at LA Dodgers (28-20)
Scheduled Rotation: Arrieta (5-3) vs. Wood (5-0), Lackey (4-4) vs. McCarthy (4-1), Lester (3-2) vs. Kershaw (7-2)
Series Price: Dodgers -160, Cubs +135
Both these teams may end up in the National League Championship Series again like last season, but if you've been betting them every day your profits are in the minus. The Dodgers, eight games above .500, are -1.9 units on the season. The Cubs are four games above .500, but are -5.8 units.
They're the top two rated teams in the National League but aren't living up to expectations so far as we head into the final weekend of May. However, it's easily the most intriguing series of the weekend and Station Casinos has posted the Dodgers as short -160 favorites to take at least two of three at Dodger Stadium.
The World Series hangover for the Cubs appears to be coming to end. They've won three straight and thanks to the Brewers dropping five in a row and the Cardinals losing six of eight, the Cubs have finally reached first-place in the NL Central. They've gone 11-10 on the road and they'll find themselves underdogs in all three games over the weekend which closes out Sunday with a date against Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs are 4-14 in their last games as underdogs.
The Dodgers statistically look like the best team in baseball but they can't catch the first-place Rockies (MLB-best +15.7 units) or second-place Arizona (+11.7 units, second-best). Dodger Stadium is once again helping the home team have one of the best team ERA's in baseball and so far they're No. 1 at 3.37. They've also got 3B Justin Turner leading the majors with a .379 batting average. It's a tough lineup to face and they lead baseball with a +64 run differential.
Last season the Dodgers took a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, including a brilliant 1-0 win by Kershaw in Game 2, but the Cubs charged back to win the next three. The two teams met again in April with the Cubs taking two of three at Wrigley Field, a series that didn't feature Kershaw and did feature Jon Lester who isn't in the rotation this weekend.
The last four meetings have stayed 'under' the total and the run extends to eight of the past 11 meetings and 18 of the past 23. This season the Cubs have gone 28-16-2 to the 'over', which is the second best 'over' ratio in baseball behind the Mets (29-10-2).
The Dodgers are annually one of the best 'under' teams at home, but they're 13-12-1 to the 'over' this season while winning 18 of 26. Considering the pitching match-ups and how well the Dodgers play at home and the Cubs team rating sliding since the beginning of the season, -160 with the Dodgers to win the series appears cheap by about 20 cents.
Baltimore (25-20) at Houston (32-16)
Scheduled Rotation: Gausman (2-3) vs Musgrove (3-4), Miley (1-2) vs. Keuchel (7-0), Bundy (5-3) vs. Montgomery (2-3)
Series Price: Astros -260, Orioiles +215
Baltimore is an impressive 15-7 at home, but are just 10-13 on the road and currently ride a four game losing streak. Houston's +11.4 units of profit is the most in the American League. The 'under' has occurred in 13 of the past 19 meetings. When they met in almost the same weekend last season at Houston, the Astros pulled off the sweep and when they met in August the Astros took three of four at Camden Yards.
Texas (24-24) at Toronto (21-26)
Scheduled Rotation: Griffin (4-1) vs. Bolsinger (0-2), Darvish (5-2) vs. Estrada (3-2), Cashner (1-4) vs. Biagini (1-2)
Series Price: Blue Jays -160, Rangers +135
Toronto pulled off a 3-0 sweep against Texas in the American League Division Series last season and they've won seven of the past nine meetings. The Blue Jays are on a run right now of winning eight of 11 at home and keep note that they've won eight of their last 10 as a favorite. Following a 10-game winning streak, the Rangers have now lost four of their last five, including the Red Sox just completed three game sweep at Fenway Park. The biggest hope here is that we get Rougned Odor/Jose Bautista II.
Oakland (21-25) at NY Yankees (27-17)
Scheduled Rotation: Gravemand (2-2) vs. Tanaka (5-3), Manaea (2-3) vs. Sabathia (4-2), Triggs (5-3) vs. Pineda (5-2)
Series Price: Yankees -270
The Yankees are 15-7 at home while the A's are 6-15 on the road, which is part of the reason for such a high series price. Last season both teams were swept on the road. The A's won all three at Yankees Stadium in April and the Yankees returned the favor in May winning all four in Oakland. The A's are currently on a 16-6 'over' run.
Kansas City (19-27) at Cleveland (24-21)
Scheduled Rotation: Kennedy (0-4) vs. Clevinger (2-1), Vargas (5-3) vs. Salazar (3-4), Duffy (4-3) vs. Tomlin (2-6)
Series Price: Indians -275, Royals +230
The Royals get their top three starters on the mound this weekend, but the Royals have lost their last eight meetings in Cleveland. The two squads met in Kansas City earlier this month with the Indians taking two of three and all three stayed 'under' the number. The total is the theme to follow here as these are the two best 'under' teams in baseball. The Royals have lost six of their last nine, but the +270 to win the series is attractive just because of the KC starters.
Seattle (21-27) at Boston (25-21)
Scheduled Rotation: Gallardo (2-4) vs. Rodriguez (3-1), Lawrence (0-3) vs. Johnson (1-0), Bergman (1-2) vs. Porcello (3-5)
Series Price: Red Sox -270, Mariners +225
Over the total is the theme here with Boston going 'over' in 14 of its last 17 and the high side has gone 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings with Seattle at Fenway Park. Boston comes in on a four game win streak while Seattle has lost five of its last six.
Tampa Bay (25-25) at Minnesota (25-18)
Scheduled Rotation: Archer (3-3) vs. Santiago (4-2), Odorizzi (3-2) vs. Mejia (1-1), Cobb (4-4) vs. Santana (7-2)
Series Price: Rays -115, Twins -105
The Twins (+7.7 units) have to be the least talked about first-place team in baseball. It's likely because everyone has them in their pool to fade first among the division leaders. But they're holding steady at the top while the rest of the division plays .500 or less ball. Minnesota has won six of its last seven, including its last four which ended with a home sweep over Baltimore. The Rays also aren't getting talked about much but their 25-25 record is impressive compared to preseason expectations. They come in winning six of their last nine, including the last five staying 'under.' However, the 'over' has been the play in this series with 11 of the past 12 meetings going high. The Twins are hot and they're an underdog at home in the series with their ace anchoring on Sunday? I'll bite for sure.
St. Louis (23-21) at Colorado (31-18)
Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (3-3) vs. Senatela (6-1), Wainwright (4-3) vs. Freeland (5-2), Lynn (4-2) vs. Marquez (3-2)
Series Price: Rockies -130, Cardinals +110
The Cardinals have a better record on the road (11-8 ) than they do at home (12-13) and are currently on a 10-2 road run with the two losses coming on the just completed series loss at Dodger Stadium. The Cards have lost six of their last eight overall. The Rockies big key to success this season has been jumping out their opponents in Game 1 of a series going 12-3. The Cards have gone 5-10 in those situations. The series price is cheap with the Rockies by 15 cents.
Dave's MLB Friday
By Dave Essler
Padres/Nationals: I'd always look to not do the obvious first, which is take Washington. If Perdomo is "on" he's inducing a lot of ground ball outs, and the downside is that only three times in his career has he completed seven innings. Surprisingly, one of those was here in Washington last year. Max is probably Max, allowing a token run or two, giving way to the bullpen in the 8th. A bullpen that hasn't been very good, which would concern me, because heading into Thursday night in New York the Padres pen has been solid of late. San Diego has been a very good "over" team this year, and with a reasonable breeze expected from left-to-right that may be worth looking at.
St. Louis/Colorado: It will be instinctive for many people to stay on the Colorado train, and I get that. I have to look at all the options, and it is indeed a first-game back, no day off, and coming from the East Coast. I do worry about Senzatela's increasing pitch count and his walks, especially since the Cardinals tend to be one of the more patient teams. Some bettors might be high on Martinez after his two-hitter against the Giants. First consider the competition and let's not over react, because in a very limited sample size Colorado's lineup has all seen and hit him. I'm inclined to think both teams score, and that's always the first thought in a Rockies' home game, and because of that the totals are usually inflated a bit. It was almost inevitable that Colorado would regress at the plate, and in fact the market said so. Often times that can be the start of a new trend, and not a good one to follow.
Chicago/Los Angeles: Arrieta has been on my "fade" list this season, and I don't like the fact that Arietta threw 111 pitches last week. The only other time this season he's been over 100 he was hammered (at Boston) the following game. Wood comes in off a gem at Miami, but in truth that's been the rule rather than the exception with him this season. He's allowed exactly one home run this season and given up exactly zero runs in his last three starts. One of those starts was at Colorado, as a matter of fact. The Cubs are flying in from Chicago with no rest (and having lost), while the Dodgers have been at home, so you've got to like the home team here, all things being equal.
St. Louis/Colorado: It will be instinctive for many people to stay on the Colorado train, and I get that. I have to look at all the options, and it is indeed a first-game back, no day off, and coming from the East Coast. I do worry about Senzatela's increasing pitch count and his walks, especially since the Cardinals tend to be one of the more patient teams. Some bettors might be high on Martinez after his two-hitter against the Giants. First consider the competition and let's not over react, because in a very limited sample size Colorado's lineup has all seen and hit him. I'm inclined to think both teams score, and that's always the first thought in a Rockies' home game, and because of that the totals are usually inflated a bit. It was almost inevitable that Colorado would regress at the plate, and in fact the market said so on Thursday. Often times that can be the start of a new trend, and not a good one to follow.
Tampa Bay/Minnesota: It's hard not to think about an under in this park with these two offenses and these two starters. If and when Archer gets beat, it's with the long ball, and this park holds fly balls. The Rays are at a situation-disadvantage having played and beaten the Angels on Thursday, while the Twins had the day off. That may not be enough to keep me off of the Rays simply because they've hit Santiago (in a limited sample size) and they didn't need to dig deep into their pen Thursday, thanks to Andriese going eight innings. It might be easy to overlook the fact that the Twins just swept the Orioles in Baltimore, and their pen has been outstanding. But, everything is situational and it looks to me like Santiago may be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Los Angeles/Miami: Obviously the Angels are sans the DH in Miami and facing the Marlins best starter, and Miami will be more rested having had Thursday off. The biggest key to a Marlins bet is whether or not Yelich plays, as in my opinion he's the most valuable player on that team. Phelps being out (personal) has an effect on the Miami bullpen, and not a positive one, either. Chavez was knocked around in his last start, which was actually predictable given that he had two high pitch-count games prior, so he may be in better shape here than at first glance. And remember, the Angels saw plenty of Straily when he was with Oakland, so there's some familiarity there. Although the easy bet would be the Marlins, without Phelps and if Yelich is out, that's another candidate for the public disaster play. If the Angels weren't having trouble scoring this would be an easy call on Los Angeles. It still might be. We'll also have to see how badly Maybin is after leaving Thursday's game.
Atlanta/San Francisco: As I alluded to referencing the Dodgers game, the Giants are coming in from Chicago while the Braves are flying out from Atlanta, so neither team is going to be overly rested. The instinctive thing to do would be to fade Matt Cain, one would think, especially after two taxing (a lot of pitches) games. Garcia can go either way, so any bet I may or may not make will be predicated on figuring him out. Atlanta giving up a ton of runs to the Pirates on Thursday isn't a huge concern, since the bulk was either off of Colon early, or Sam Freeman when it really didn't matter - Sam needed the work. After losing to the Cubs, the Giants long plane ride isn't going to be a happy one, either. Atlanta got their emotions out early against the Pirates, and they're playing much better than expected without Freeman. However, this will be the first time they go on the road without him, so truly, the value here probably lies in the total. As is usual for this time of year the wind is blowing straight out, but as usual it's one of the best pitchers' park year in and year out.
Texas/Toronto: It's a great situation for the Blue Jays, having beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee and having a day off. Seemingly, they are getting their act together as much as one can without Donaldson and Pearce. Texas gets no rest, coming up from Boston, and the Rangers continue to be perhaps the biggest enigma in baseball. Griffin was pulverized in Detroit last week and I'd like to think he rebounds from that. But, a closer look at his season finds that, yes, he's got a great W/L record, but he's had either great run support or pitched well against the Padres or Oakland. It would certainly be tough to back Bolsinger as well. The Jays will obviously have the more rested bullpen, but that may not be enough. The roof won't be open, or taking the over would be a no-brainer, if there is such a thing. It still might be, especially if Texas uses much bullpen in Boston, and assuming the "A" lineups are in. You'd expect the Jays to have everyone in with a day off.
Oakland/New York: The A's with a day off to travel East, but the A's are 5-16 on the road, and when you get their bullpen away from that big park in Oakland, they're not very good. At all. Graveman is certainly one of their best options if you are thinking about the big dog, but he had a rare 105 pitch game last outing and he should give way to the pen sooner rather than later. Sabathia has been stellar in his last two starts, so there will indeed be money on the Yankees that might not have been there two weeks ago. In some of the splits against the A's there may be enough cracks to think Oakland does score some, and the weather might be conducive for an "over" once the late afternoon showers pass through, which is only magnified by the Yankees pen since Chapman has been on the DL.