Dodgers at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (+118, 5.5)
St. Louis leads the the series 3-2.
With last year's stunning National League Championship Series loss a not-so-distant memory, the St. Louis Cardinals try to close out the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 on Friday night. It won't be an easy task for St. Louis, which must face Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw as it attempts to avoid squandering a 3-1 lead in the NLCS for the second straight year. Rookie Michael Wacha will oppose Kershaw in a rematch of Game 2, won by the Cardinals 1-0.
Offense had been at a premium throughout the series until the Dodgers busted out and swatted four homers - two by Adrian Gonzalez - to stave off elimination with a 6-4 victory in Game 5. St. Louis failed to take advantage of some early scoring opportunities on Wednesday but its bats are starting to come around, producing 10 hits after managing a total of 12 in the previous three games. Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday is 5-for-8 with a homer and three RBIs in the last two games.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s. There is a 30 percent chance of showers in the forecast.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (0-1, 0.00) vs. RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00)
Kershaw was saddled with the loss in Game 2 despite allowing an unearned run on only two hits in his six-inning stint. In three starts this postseason, the likely NL Cy Young Award winner has yielded four runs - one earned - and eight hits while striking out 23 in 19 innings. "Our focus for Game 6 is to score runs for Kershaw and let him do his thing," Gonzalez said. As well as he pitched in Game 2, Kershaw has lost all three starts to St. Louis this season.
Wacha has pitched with the poise of a veteran rather than the rookie who entered the playoffs with nine regular-season starts. He struck out eight in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to outduel Kershaw in Game 2 and was dominant in his NL Division Series start, allowing one run and one hit with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings. Wacha's last three outings have been off the charts - the 22-year-old has yielded one run on seven hits while striking out 26 in 22 2/3 innings.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-2-1 in Kershaw's last nine starts vs. Cardinals.
* Dodgers are 0-4 in Kershaw's last four starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
UMP TRENDS - Greg Gibson:
* Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six games with Gibson behind home plate.
* Under is 8-3 in Gibson's last 11 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Home team is 17-5 in Gibson's last 22 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Dodgers SS Hanley Ramirez (ribs) has made early exits in the last two games but will be in the starting lineup Friday.
2. Holliday is 10-for-35 with 10 walks lifetime against Kershaw.
3. The Dodgers have lost six straight postseason series when facing elimination at any point, dating to the 1995 NLDS.
Dodgers - Cardinals
Kershaw is 3-1, 1.13 in his last five starts, with three of last four going over the total. He is 0-2, 3.32 in three starts against St Louis this season.
Wacha won his last three starts, allowing one run, seven hits in 22.2 IP; four of his last five starts stayed under the total. He blanked LA for 6.2 IP on five hits earlier in series, his only start against the Dodgers.
Dodgers are 6-6 against St Louis this year, with eight of 12 games going under the total. LA is 5-4 in playoffs but 11-14 in last 25 games overall; four of five games in this series stayed under the total.
Cardinals scored 12 runs in this series, still lead 3-2; they've won 16 of last 22 games, winning 11 of last 12 home games- four of their last five games stayed under the total. St Louis was 19-23 vs lefty starters during regular season.
Armadillosports.com
LA DODGERS (97 - 74) at ST LOUIS (103 - 69) - 8:35 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. MICHAEL WACHA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 103-69 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 27-15 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 80-61 (+25.0 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 58-28 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ST LOUIS is 12-0 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off this season.
ST LOUIS is 103-69 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 48-21 (+22.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ST LOUIS is 389-266 (+57.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 18-7 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
LA DODGERS are 97-74 (+5.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 46-39 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA DODGERS are 71-46 (+15.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 21-25 (-11.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-6 (-0.3 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.6 Units)
CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
KERSHAW is 4-6 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.276.
His team's record is 6-8 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (+0.3 units)
MICHAEL WACHA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WACHA is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)
LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
LA Dodgers are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Dodgers: 1-5 in Kershaw's last 6 road starts vs. Cardinals
Dodgers: 0-7 in their last 7 NLCS road games
Cardinals: 5-1 in their last 6 NLCS home games
NLCS Game 6 Notes
VegasInsider.com
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Game 1 - Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2
Game 2 - Cardinals 1, Dodgers 0
Game 3 - Dodgers 3, Cardinals 0
Game 4 - Cardinals 4, Dodgers 2
Game 5 - Dodgers 6, Cardinals 4
Game 6 - Friday
Game 7* - Saturday
* - If Necessary
Game 5 recap:
-- Los Angeles stayed alive with a 6-4 victory over St. Louis. Adrian Gonzalez knocked out two homers, while Zack Greinke tossed seven innings for his first postseason win in three tries. The two teams cashed the 'over' for the first time in five games of the NLCS.
Game 6 Probables:
Los Angeles - Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83 ERA)
-- Dodgers own a 9-2 record in his 11 day starts this season
-- Dodgers are 12-6 in his 18 away starts this season
-- Kershaw has allowed one earned run (four runs overall) in his last five outings
-- Dodgers are 2-1 in his three postseason starts, but lost at St. Louis in Game 2 of the NLCS, 1-0 as a -135 road favorite
-- Kershaw has yet to beat the Cardinals in three starts this season, including two defeats at Busch Stadium
St. Louis - Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78 ERA)
-- The right-hander has been terrific in playoffs, winning both starts against the Pirates (Game 4 of NLDS) and Dodgers (Game 2 of NLCS)
-- Wacha has allowed one run in 14 innings of the postseason, while striking out 17 and walking only three
-- In victory over Dodgers in Game 2, Wacha scattered five hits in 6 2/3 innings of work
-- The Cardinals are 3-4 in Wacha's seven starts at Busch Stadium this season
-- The 'under' is 2-0 in his two starts as an underdog
StatFox Super Situations
MLB LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA DODGERS) with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start 71-53 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.3% 38.8 units ) 19-19 this year. ( 50.0% 4.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB LA DODGERS at ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS is 16-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in Home games with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: ST LOUIS (6.2) , OPPONENT (2.4)
Cardinals look to close
By Sportsbook.ag
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (97-74) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (103-69)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -132 & 5.5 over -130
The Cardinals return home Friday and get a second chance to try and eliminate the Dodgers and advance to the World Series, but face a tall task against ace Clayton Kershaw.
Game 5 of this NLCS was filled with the most firepower yet, as the Dodgers pulled out a 6-4 victory, the highest scoring game of the series. This one appears likely to return to the norm of pitchers’ duels, however. Los Angeles is a road favorite with Kershaw (17-10, 1.73 ERA) toeing the rubber after the southpaw allowed just one unearned run over six innings in his 1-0 loss in Game 2. That was a rare win for the Cardinals, as they are just 21-25 (.457) against lefty starters in 2013. The winner of that game is also his opponent tonight, Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.38 ERA), who threw 6.2 scoreless innings in that contest.
While the Dodgers have played admirably well on the road this season, racking up a 46-39 (.541) record, beating the Cardinals at home is never easy, as St. Louis is 58-28 (.674) at Busch Stadium this season. They’ve yet to exert that dominance over Los Angeles though, as the teams are 6-6 against each other on the year and 3-3 at Busch Stadium.
Kershaw (0.90 WHIP) is likely on his way to the Cy Young Award this season, posting incredible numbers all year long. He has 255 strikeouts in a whopping 255 innings while walking only 57 batters in that span and giving up 11 home runs. He also does not suffer from pitching on the road, where he has a 1.99 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, leading the Dodgers to a 12-6 record in those games. He is also showing no signs of slowing down, allowing just one earned run in his past three starts (0.47 ERA, 0.68 WHIP). He did nothing to deserve to lose his first start against the Cardinals this series, though that was his third consecutive losing decision against the Redbirds in 2013. In his career, he is 4-6 (team 6-8) against St. Louis with a 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
While OF Carlos Beltran (5-for-24, 9 K's), 2B Matt Carpenter (3-for-15, 2 K's) and 3B David Freese (4-for-17, 2 K's) have all struggled versus the lefty, OF Matt Holliday (10-for-35, 1 HR, 10 walks) is the one hitter in their lineup who has had some degree of consistent success against Kershaw, who is 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his postseason career. Though Kershaw (7.1 innings per start) doesn’t typically need much bullpen help because he tends to give them leads and not many innings to work, it’s important for manager Don Mattingly to know he can feel comfortable turning to the unit that has a 3.46 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2013. Those numbers are actually slightly better on the road (3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). During the NLCS, Dodgers relievers have a 2.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 15.1 innings, fanning 16, but also issuing nine walks.
Wacha (1.03 WHIP) has been absolutely brilliant in his rookie season, despite his team's 5-6 record when he starts. This includes a 3-4 mark at Busch Stadium, where he has a 3-1 record, 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in seven starts. Like Kershaw, Wacha has only been getting better late in the season, producing a 3-0 record, 0.40 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in his past three starts, giving up only one run and seven hits in 22.2 innings with 26 K's and just five walks. Game 2 of the NLCS was his only career start against the Dodgers and none of their hitters seemed to figure him out—the five hits he allowed (4 singles, 1 double) were dispersed over five people. He also had eight strikeouts and only one walk in that game.
Wacha doesn’t quite yet have Kershaw’s endurance, averaging only 6.2 innings per start this year, but he's tossed 7.6 innings per start in his past three starts. He still has the comfort of a strong bullpen behind him, as Cardinals relievers have a 3.36 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 2013, though that ERA jumps to 3.60 at Busch Stadium, despite an improved 1.21 WHIP. During the NLCS, St. Louis relievers have been outstanding, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, two saves, 16 K's and just four walks over 17 innings.