MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 3

MLB Playoffs

Tigers - Orioles

Verlander is 3-0, 2.89 in his last four starts; he is 7-5, 3.28 in 15 postseason starts, 1-1, 4.50 in two starts vs Baltimore this season.

Chen is 1-2, 4.58 in his last three starts; he allowed two runs (one earned) in 6.2 IP in his only postseason start, two years ago. Chen hasn't faced Detroit in '14.

Tigers are 10-7 in last 17 road games; they're in playoffs for 4th year in row; they won this round last three years, won World Series in 2012.

Orioles are 21-6 in their last 27 home games; they lost in this round in 2012, their only playoff appearamce since '97.

Verlander 19-13.....10-32 first inning
Chen 19-12.........10-31 first inning

Giants - Nationals

Peavy is 0-3, 9.27 in his five postseason starts (23 runs allowed in 22.1 IP); he is 4-0, 1.62 in his last six starts. Peavy hasn't pitched against Washington in '14. .
Strasburg was held out of playoffs two years ago to keep him under an innings limit; controversial move. he is 4-1, 1.13 in his last six starts and hasn't allowed any runs in his last 20 IP. Obviously, this is his first playoff start.

Giants are in playoffs for third time in last five years; they won World Series in 2010/2012. Giants won four of last five games overall, but lost five of last seven road games.

Washington won 13 of its last 16 games, eight of last 11 at home; they're in the playoffs for second time in three years, after not making it since they were the Montreal Expos back in 1981.

Peavy 5-15/8-4.........6-32 first inning
Strasburg 19-15.......10-34 first inning

Cardinals - Dodgers

Wainwright is 5-0, 1.38 in his last five starts; he is 4-3, 2.95 in nine postseason starts. He lost 1-0 at Dodger Stadium June 26, pitching eight innings.

Kershaw is 1-3, 4.23 in six postseason starts; he was dominant this year, going 21-3, 1.77 in 27 starts, 7-0, 2.04 in his last seven. He was 1-0, 1.93 in two starts vs St Louis (3 runs in 14 IP) this season.

St Louis is in playoffs for 4th year in row, 8th time in last 12 years-- they are 3-4 in last seven games overall, 3-6 in last nine on road.

Dodgers won their last five games, scoring 36 runs; they're in playoffs second year in row, after missing the three years before that. LA has by far biggest payroll in baseball.

Wainwright 23-9.........4-32 first inning
Kershaw 23-4.............4-27 first inning

Royals - Angels

Ventura is making first postseason start; he got hit hard in relief Tuesday by the A's, after throwing 73 pitches in a Sunday start. Ventura is 2-0, 2.50 in his last three starts; he is 0-1, 4.50 against the Angels this season.

Shoemaker is 6-0, 1.38 in his last seven starts, but hasn't pitched since Sept 15 (oblique); he allowed 19 hits, 11 runs in two starts (nine IP) against the Royals this season. This is his first postseason appearance.

Royals won eight of last ten games, seven of last nine on road; they won their last two games in extra innings.

Angels jogged to AL West title, lost eight of last 11 games; they're in playoffs for first time since 2009- they made playoffs six out of eight years ('02-'09), winning 2002 World Series.

Ventura 18-12.........7-30 first inning
Shoemaker 16-4........2-20 first inning

Armadillosports.com

Friday's MLB Playoff Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-105)

Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason and has already proved to be a great bargain. Cruz will look to continue his postseason dominance when the Orioles host the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of their American League Division Series on Friday. Cruz hit a two-run homer in Thursday’s Game 1 victory and has 15 home runs in 35 career postseason games while being a particular pest to the Tigers.

Cruz homered six times in a six-game series win over Detroit when he was with the Texas Rangers in 2011 and picked up right where he left off with a first-inning blast Thursday as the Orioles went on to grab a 12-3 victory. There were five home runs in total in Game 1, with the Tigers managing three solo blasts and nothing else. The big question surrounding Detroit coming into the series was in the bullpen, and the team did little to answer those concerns as Joba Chamberlain, Joakim Soria and Phil Coke combined to give up seven runs while recording two outs in the eighth inning.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54 ERA) vs. Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.54)

Verlander seemed like a candidate for the bullpen in the postseason until turning things around over the final two weeks with back-to-back strong outings. The former MVP allowed a total of two runs and 14 hits in 15 1/3 innings to earn wins over Kansas City and Chicago. Verlander is 9-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 career starts against Baltimore but was knocked around for five runs in six innings at Orioles Park at Camden Yards on May 14.

Chen allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts but took the loss in the last two. The Taiwan native issued only 35 walks in 185 2/3 innings in 2014 and yielded just one home run in those five September outings. Chen missed Detroit earlier this season and is 1-0 with six runs allowed in 11 total innings over two starts in his career against the Tigers.

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 5-11 in Verlanders last 16 starts as a road underdog.
*Under is 10-2 in Chens last 12 starts overall.
*Tigers are 12-3 in Verlanders last 15 starts vs. Orioles.

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals (-175, 6.5)

After being reduced to a spectator during his team's postseason run two years ago, Stephen Strasburg makes his playoff debut on Friday as the Washington Nationals host the San Francisco Giants in Game 1 of the best-of-5 National League Division Series. The 26-year-old fireballer was held out of the 2012 postseason by Washington in a bid to protect his surgically repaired right elbow. Fast forward to the present, it's full steam ahead as the NL East-champion Nationals breezed to the league's best record of 96-66 and also won five of the seven meetings with the Giants.

San Francisco won its eighth consecutive postseason game dating to the 2012 NLCS and a date with Washington after cruising to an 8-0 rout of Pittsburgh in the wild-card game on Wednesday. Brandon Crawford provided an unlikely jolt with a grand slam and portly Pablo Sandoval added two hits, two runs and an over-the-railing acrobatic catch in the lopsided victory. Sandoval is 35-for-106 (.330) in his career versus Washington and .317 this season against right-handers, but is just 3-for-12 with five strikeouts when he has opposed Strasburg.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (14-11, 3.14)

Peavy overcame losing his first three outings since being acquired from Boston by winning six of seven before settling for a pair of no-decisions to end the regular season. The 33-year-old seems to have put his penchant for surrendering the long ball on hold, allowing just three in 12 outings (78 2/3 innings) with the Giants after permitting 20 in as many appearances (124 innings) with the Red Sox. Peavy was blitzed for three homers and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last meeting with the Nationals.

Strasburg finished the season with a flourish, tossing 20 shutout innings over his last three starts while posting victories in six of his last seven decisions. The former top overall pick wasn't as fortunate in his last meeting with the Giants, allowing five runs on eight hits in four innings before escaping with a no-decision on Aug. 24. That contest was in San Francisco, but Strasburg has pitched far better in 18 starts at home - securing a 9-3 mark with a 2.56 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Nationals are 4-1 in Strasburg's last five starts versus the Giants.
* Giants are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Washington.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-195, 5.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to exact revenge for last year's postseason dismissal when they host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of their National League Division Series on Friday. The NL West champion Dodgers were ousted by St. Louis in six games in the 2013 NL Championship Series, ending their bid for their first pennant since 1988. St. Louis went on to lose to Boston in the World Series in six.

Los Angeles claimed its second straight division title this season, finishing two games behind NL East champion Washington for the best record in the senior circuit. It rolls into the postseason with a five-game winning streak and an 8-2 mark over its final 10 regular-season contests, while St. Louis held off wild-card recipient Pittsburgh to capture its second consecutive NL Central crown. The Cardinals have made the playoffs five of the last six years and reached the World Series two of the last three seasons.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77)

Wainwright had another sensational season, posting at least 19 victories for the fourth time in five years and matching his career high of 20 originally set in 2010. The 33-year-old ended the campaign with a five-start winning streak, allowing a total of two runs and tossing two of his five complete games over his final four outings. Wainwright has posted a 2.90 ERA in 14 career games - 11 starts - against the Dodgers but owns only a 4-5 overall record and a 1-3 mark at Los Angeles, where he suffered a 1-0 complete-game loss on June 26 in which he allowed just five hits.

The only thing likely to keep Wainwright from capturing his first NL Cy Young Award was the incredible 2014 performance by Kershaw, who led the major leagues in wins, ERA, complete games (six) and WHIP (0.86) while finishing second in opposing batting average (.196). The 26-year-old, who is ticketed for his third overall Cy Young Award and second in a row, closed the season by winning each of his last seven starts - working eight innings six times and yielding fewer than two earned runs on five occasions. Kershaw has been ordinary against St. Louis over his career, going 5-5 with a 3.46 ERA in 14 outings, but struck out 13 over seven scoreless innings in a victory at home June 29.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Wainwright's last four starts versus the Dodgers.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Cardinals are 1-4 in Wainwright's last five road starts versus the Dodgers.

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

Matt Shoemaker recovered from an oblique injury and draws the start for Game 2 when the host Los Angeles Angels try to even their American League Division Series against the Kansas City Royals on Friday. Shoemaker suffered the injury against Seattle on Sept. 15 and was pronounced fit after a bullpen session. “That was the most encouraging thing in coming out of the bullpen,” Shoemaker said at his Thursday press conference. “It felt like I just played a few days before that instead of being off two weeks.”

The Royals won Thursday’s opener 3-2 as Mike Moustakas hit the game-winning homer in the 11th inning, his first blast since Aug. 25. Rookie Yordano Ventura receives the ball for Kansas City just three days after experiencing a rough relief outing and allowing a three-run homer to Oakland’s Brandon Moss in the AL wild-card game. “I learned that things do happen very quickly, and that I got myself into trouble in that situation,” Ventura said at his press conference. “Even though I don’t treat it as a different game, it is a different game.”

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) vs. Angels RH Matt Shoemaker (16-4, 3.04)

Ventura won five of his last six regular-season decisions to cap off an impressive rookie season. Despite his lack of experience, Ventura was picked as the No. 2 starter despite the presence of tough left-hander Danny Duffy and veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie. “Well, if you watched this kid pitch all summer long, he’s got great composure for a young guy,” Kansas City manager Ned Yost said in his press conference.

Shoemaker is 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA in two 2014 starts against the Royals and was roughed up for eight runs and 11 hits in four innings in the second outing. “That was probably his worst start of the season,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said in his press conference. “If you look at Matt when he’s thrown the ball well and probably his last eight starts, arguably he was our best pitcher.” Shoemaker won seven consecutive decisions to end the regular season.

TRENDS:

*Angels are 17-4 in Shoemakers last 21 starts.
*Over is 6-2 in Royals last 8 overall.
*Under is 27-12 in Angels last 39 home games.

NLDS - Cardinals at Dodgers
By Sportsbook.ag

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) at Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Los Angeles -195, St. Louis +182, Total: 5.5

Two storied franchises, the Cardinals and Dodgers, open their best-of-5 NLDS with Game 1 in L.A. on Friday night.

St. Louis just barely edged out Pittsburgh for the NL Central title by going 10-5 since Sept. 12, and then clinching the division with a 1-0 victory over Arizona on the last day of the season. With an offense ranked eighth-worst in the league in runs (619), the Cardinals earned most of their victories with solid pitching which had an overall 3.50 ERA. Their hottest hitter coming into the postseason is 1B Matt Adams (.288 BA) who has gone 11-for-34 (.324) with three doubles, 3 RBI and four runs over his past nine contests.

Los Angeles played up to its potential in the 2014 campaign and beat out the Giants for the NL West title over the last series of the year. The team with the league's highest payroll finished the season on a high note with victories in eight of the final 10 games, including winning the final five contests. The offense had the best on-base percentage (.333) in all of baseball this year while scoring 718 runs (6th in majors). OF Matt Kemp (.287 BA) closed out the year in impressive form by going 12-for-30 (.400) with four home runs, 12 RBI and nine runs over his final eight contests. The pitching matchup will be a great one as RHP Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) faces the best pitcher in baseball, LHP Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 ERA).

The Cardinals have not played well on the road this year with a 39-42 record (.481) and will be facing a Dodgers team which has gone 45-36 (.556) in front of their fans. Since the beginning of the 2012 campaign, L.A. is 14-11 in this matchup while going a solid 9-5 at home, including taking 3-of-4 games at Chavez Ravine earlier this season.

Bettors should keep an eye on the fact that the Dodgers are only 19-26 (.422) after two or more consecutive wins this season while going 50-27 (.649) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games over the past two seasons.

The Cardinals come into this game with no injuries, while SS Dee Gordon (hip) is listed as day-to-day for the host Dodgers.

Adam Wainwright has won 19 or more games in four of his past five seasons while pitching under a 2.95 ERA, and has thrown at least 198 frames in each of the past five years. His consistency has come from his ability to control the strike zone with a walk rate of 2.0 BB/9 in 2014 while holding batters to a mere 10 homers in his 227 innings (0.40 HR/9). Wainwright finished off the season in spectacular fashion, going 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA while having a 39:5 K/BB ration in five September starts. Despite a 4-6 career record (6-7 team record) against his opponent, Wainwright has a strong 2.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP when facing the Dodgers.

He has lost his past three outings in this matchup despite allowing only six runs in 22 frames. OF Andre Ethier (9-for-33, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI) has been one of the few L.A. players able to produce off of the ace, while 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Matt Kemp and SS Hanley Ramirez are a combined 12-for-66 (.182) with 15 strikeouts when facing Wainwright.

The relievers for St. Louis are 26-23 (.531) this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and have been successful saving games in 55-of-72 (76%) attempts. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.20 ERA, 45 saves) allowed far too many free passes (5.4 BB/9) while holding opposing hitters to just 0.26 HR/9 and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings.

Clayton Kershaw has been in a league of his own over the past few seasons with an ERA under 3.00 in each of the past six years while pitching to a mark better than a 2.00 ERA in each of the past two years. Amazingly, Kershaw improved on his 2013 Cy Young performance with a career-best 1.77 ERA, 10.9 K/9 and 1.41 BB/9 this season. He has kept 81.6% of runners on base in 2014 and forced 51.8% of balls in play to be hit on the ground, which are also both career-best marks. He has allowed more than three runs just once on the year and was a perfect 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA over the final month of the regular season.

Kershaw has actually not done too well against the Cardinals in his career, going 5-7 (8-9 team record) with a 3.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he did throw a quality start in both of his outings this year, including seven shutout innings with 13 K's at Dodger Stadium on June 29. OF Peter Bourjos (4-for-11, 1 HR, 2 RBI) is the only player on the St. Louis roster with a homer against the lefty while OF Matt Holliday (9-for-35, 10 K's, 10 BB's) and 3B Matt Carpenter (5-for-18, 4 K's) have been decent in the matchup.

In the regular season, L.A.’s bullpen was a subpar 18-24 (.429) with a 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while going 47-for-61 (77%) in save opportunities. Closer Kenley Jansen (2.76 ERA, 44 saves) struck out a wealth of batters (13.9 K/9) and was on the losing side of batters hitting .350 BABIP against him.

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