MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 4

PITTSBURGH vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

TAMPA BAY vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Boston
Tampa Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA DODGERS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home

DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Pittsburgh at St Louis
Cole: Pirates 36-16 under after getting 4 or less hits in last game
Lynn: 17-4 TSR after allowing 2 or less runs in his last two starts

Tampa Bay at Boston
Moore: 14-2 TSR pitching on the road this season
Lester: Boston 22-9 Under this season as favorite of $-125 to $-150

LA Dodgers at Atlanta
Greinke: 13-3 Under when total is 7 or less runs this season
Minor: Braves 20-4 in home games off a loss this year

Detroit at Oakland
Scherzer: Tigers 9-17 away this season when total is 7 or less runs
Colon: 14-2 TSR after allowing 2 or less runs in last two starts

ALDS Betting Notebook
VegasInsider.com

Tampa Bay vs. Boston

Series Price: Red Sox (-130) Rays (+110)
Series Format: Boston (2-2-1)

Game 1 - Friday, Oct. 4
Game 2 - Saturday, Oct. 5
Game 3 - Monday, Oct. 7
Game 4* - Tuesday, Oct. 8
Game 5* - Thursday, Oct. 10

Records

Overall
Tampa Bay - 92-71
Boston - 97-65

Home
Tampa Bay - 51-30
Boston - 53-28

Away
Tampa Bay - 41-41
Boston - 44-37

Head-to-Head (19 Games)
Overall: Boston 12-7
Fenway Park: Boston 6-3
Tropicana Field: Boston 6-4

Total Notes (Over/Under)

Overall
Tampa Bay - 76-78-9
Boston - 74-81

Home
Tampa Bay - 38-39-4
Boston - 35-43

Away
Tampa Bay - 37-39-5
Boston - 40-38

Head-to-Head (19 Games)
Overall: Under - 14-5
Fenway Park: Under - 10-0
Tropicana Field: Under - 5-4

Game 1 Starters

Tampa Bay - Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29 ERA)

The Rays went 21-6 in Moore's 27 appearances, 14-2 on the road.
The Rayss went 6-2 in Moore's eight starts after the All-Star break.
Moore beat the Red Sox twice this season, including a complete-game shutout at Boston in mid-July. The Rays won each of Moore's starts against Boston as a favorite this season.
Moore hit the 'over' in nine of 15 road starts this season, which includes a 1-1 mark against the Red Sox.
Moore is making his second career postseason start after beating the Rangers in the 2011 ALDS as a +160 underdog.

Boston - Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75 ERA)

The Red Sox went 19-14 in Lester's 33 appearances, 11-2 at home.
The Red Sox went 3-3 in Lester's last six starts of the season.
Lester faced Tampa Bay four times this season as the Red Sox posted a 3-1 record.
In Lester's two home starts against Tampa Bay, he gave up 12 hits and 3 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.
Lester saw the 'over' go 16-15-2 on the season but the 'under' was 7-6 in his 13 home starts.
Lester owns a 2-3 postseason record, but went 0-2 against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS with an ERA of 4.97.

Detroit vs. Oakland

Series Price: Tigers (-155) Athletics (+135)
Series Format: Oakland (2-2-1)

Game 1 - Friday, Oct. 4
Game 2 - Saturday, Oct. 5
Game 3 - Monday, Oct. 7
Game 4* - Tuesday, Oct. 8
Game 5* - Thursday, Oct. 10

Records

Overall
Detroit - 93-69
Oakland - 96-66

Home
Detroit - 51-30
Oakland - 52-39

Away
Detroit - 42-39
Oakland - 44-37

Head-to-Head (7 Games)
Overall: Oakland 4-3
Comerica Park: Oakland 3-1
O.Co Coliseum: Detroit 2-1

Total Notes (Over/Under)

Overall
Detroit - 81-75-6
Oakland - 84-74-4

Home
Detroit - 45-32-5
Oakland - 40-40-1

Away
Detroit - 36-44-1
Oakland - 44-34-3

Head-to-Head (7 Games)

Overall: Over - 6-1
Comerica Park: Over - 4-0
O.Co Coliseum: Over 2-1

Game 1 Starters

Detroit - Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90 ERA)

The Tigers went 25-7 in Scherzer's 32 appearances, 11-5 on road
The Tigers went 6-2 in his final eight starts
Scherzer faced the A's twice this season and produced a pair of no decisions while the Tigers split the two games. Detroit blew a 3-0 lead at Oakland in mid-April as Scherzer struck out 11 batters in six innings as the Tigers lost, 4-3. In the next meeting at Comerica park in late August, the Tigers rallied from a five-run deficit to bail out Scherzer as a -190 home favorite in a 7-6 victory, in spite of the righty allowing six runs in five innings.
The 'under' was 17-14-1 in Scherzer's starts, 11-5 to the 'under' on the road.
Scherzer has put together a 2-1 career playoff record, but allowed 12 hits and five runs in 17 1/3 innings in the 2012 playoffs.

Oakland - Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 ERA)

The A's have gone 21-9 in Colon's 30 starts, which includes an 11-5 home mark.
The A's won each of Colon's final four starts of the season.
Colon pitched opposite Scherzer in two starts against the Tigers this season, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings.
Colon saw the 'over' go 17-13 this season, including a 9-7 record to the 'over' at home.
Colon is making his first postseason start since 2005 when he was a member of the Angels. The last time Colon won in the playoffs came back in 2001 with the Indians.

Pirates-Cardinals

Cole is 4-0, 1.38 in his last four starts, with five of lhis last seven going under the total. He has not pitched against the Cardinals.
Lynn is 2-0, 1.46 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five at home. He allowed 11 runs in 9.1 IP in his last two starts vs Pirates, after going 2-0, 3.00 in his first three against Pittsburgh this season (2-1, 5.60 total). Four of his five starts against Pittsburgh went over the total.

Pirates won six of their last eight games; they are 10-10 vs St Louis this year, but lost last five meetings, allowing 42 runs. Three of their last four games went over total. Cardinals won last seven games, outscoring opponents 36-7.

Dodgers-Braves

Greinke is 7-0, 1.36 in his last twn starts, with eight of ten staying under total. He shut Braves out for seven innings in 5-0 win June 6.
Minor is 0-4, 4.38 in his last six starts; six of his last nine starts went over the total. He was 1-0, 2.25 in two starts against the Dodgers this year.

Dodgers lost four of last six games with seven of last ten games staying under; LA is just 26-27 this season vs southpaws.

Four of last five Atlanta games went over total. Braves are 5-3 against Dodgers this year, but 3-0 home sweep in May was before Puig came to big leagues.

Rays-Red Sox

Moore is 2-0, 2.61 in his last two starts; he was 2-0, 1.80 vs Boston this year, tossing a 2-hit shutout at Fenway July 22.
Lester is 3-2, 2.57 in his last five starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. He is 1-2, 4.32 in four starts against the Rays this season.

Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 12 games; they're playing in fifth city in last nine days, all on the road. Rays are 7-12 vs Boston this year, 4-6 in Fenway.

Red Sox are 32-22 vs lefty starters, Tampa Bay is 30-23.

Boston went 3-4 in last seven games, as they won AL East fairly easily; their last five games went over the total.

Tigers-A's

Scherzer is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts stayed under the total. He allowed eight runs in 11 IP vs Oakland this season.
Colon is 4-0, 1.04 in his last four starts; six of his last eight outings went over the total. He was 0-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Detroit this season.

Detroit lost five of last seven games but seemed to go thru motions once they clinched division; their last six games stayed under the total.

Oakland is 4-3 vs Tigers this year, with road team winning five of seven games. Detroit beat the A's in five games in LY's playoffs.

A's won 16 of last 21 games, eight of last ten at home. Nine of their last 11 games went over the total.

Armadillosports.com

Friday's MLB NLDS Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 7)

Cardinals lead series 1-0.

Reggie Jackson may be the original "Mr. October," but Carlos Beltran of the St. Louis Cardinals is making a strong argument that he deserves the title in the 21st century. Beltran continued his postseason heroics with a three-run homer to spark St. Louis to a 9-1 rout of the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Thursday. The Cardinals will look to take a 2-0 lead in Friday's Game 2 of the best-of-five series.

Beltran's blast was his 15th in 35 postseason games, tying Babe Ruth for eighth place on the all-time list. "He's like our secret weapon when it comes to the postseason. He steps up every time," Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter said of Beltran. Pittsburgh managed only four hits - two by Andrew McCutchen - and got its only run on a homer by Pedro Alvarez, continuing a trend that has seen the Pirates outscored 35-11 in their last four games in St. Louis.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s with partly cloudy skies and a 17 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing south at 12 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.22 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97)

Cole showed why he was the top overall pick in the 2011 draft, winning his last four starts and allowing six runs in five September outings. The 23-year-old fireballer has never faced St. Louis, but he was 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven starts away from home. Cole has not pitched since Sept. 24, when he limited the Chicago Cubs to two runs over six innings.

Lynn also had a strong finish to the season, winning his last two starts and allowing one run and eight hits over 12 1/3 innings. He also faced the Cubs in his last turn, blanking them on four hits over six innings, and permitted a total of four runs (three earned) in his last four starts. Lynn made five starts against Pittsburgh this season, going 2-1 with a 5.60 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Cardinals are 4-1 in Lynns last five home starts vs. Pirates.
* Over is 32-15-4 in the last 51 meetings in St. Louis.
* Pirates are 0-5 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Lynn has held McCutchen to four hits in 26 at-bats with 10 strikeouts.

2. Cole struck out 39 and allowed only 24 hits in 32 innings in September.

3. Beltran trails only Derek Jeter (20) and Albert Pujols (18) for the most postseason homers among active players.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-104, 6.5)

Dodgers lead series 1-0.

The Atlanta Braves struck out 15 times in a series-opening loss and now have to deal with Los Angeles right-hander Zack Greinke when they host the Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Division Series on Friday. Atlanta hitters fanned 12 times in seven innings against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in the opener and must fare better against Greinke to avoid heading to Los Angeles in an 0-2 hole. The Braves have lost four consecutive home postseason games.

The Dodgers had 11 hits in Thursday’s 6-1 victory, including a two-run homer by Adrian Gonzalez - the first postseason blast of his career. A.J. Ellis doubled twice and hopes to continue his surge as he is 4-for-10 with a homer against Game 2 starter Mike Minor. Atlanta had just five hits in the opener, with the high-priced B.J. Upton (.184 average) starting the game on the bench and the well-paid Dan Uggla (.179) left off the playoff roster.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s with partly cloudy skies and winds SE at 3 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA) vs. Braves LH Mike Minor (15-12, 3.11)

Greinke was just 1-1 over his last five starts despite allowing just six runs. He blanked Atlanta on four hits over seven innings on June 6 and is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in three career outings against the Braves. Greinke is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 career postseason appearances (12 starts).

Minor is making his first career playoff start. He is 1-1 with a 2.32 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers, including a 1-0 mark and 2.25 ERA in two outings this season. Minor went 0-4 with a 3.94 ERA in five September starts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in Minors last five starts vs. Dodgers.
* Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Braves were 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the opener, with 3B Chris Johnson delivering a run-scoring single.

2. Dodgers OF Andre Ethier (ankle) was included on the postseason roster and grounded out as a pinch hitter in the opener.

3. Atlanta RF Justin Upton is 5-for-11 with a homer against Greinke.

Friday's MLB ALDS Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-135, 6.5)

The Tampa Bay Rays have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while battling for the wild card, winning a one-game tiebreaker in Texas on Monday and taking the one-game wild card playoff in Cleveland on Wednesday. Their reward is a trip to face the well-rested and top-seeded Boston Red Sox on Friday in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. The Red Sox will be playing for the first time since ending the regular season on Sunday.

Boston played an intersquad game on Wednesday to keep everybody fresh but will need to get into playoff mode quickly after spending the bulk of September comfortably ahead of the rest of the AL East. The Red Sox took 12 of the 19 meetings against Tampa Bay during the regular season, including two of three on the road from Sept. 10-12 to help put the division out of reach. The Rays won 10 of their last 12 going back to the regular season, with the pitching holding opponents to 2.83 runs in that span.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75)

Moore finished out the regular season with wins in each of his last two starts but struggled with his command in September, issuing 20 walks in 29 total innings over six starts. The 24-year-old had one of his best starts at Boston on July 22, allowing just two hits and walking one in a shutout. Moore is making his third career postseason appearance - second start - and yielded a total of one run on three hits in 10 innings during the 2011 ALDS.

Lester had a string of nine straight quality starts come to an end at Baltimore last Saturday, when he was reached for four runs on nine hits in five innings. The 29-year-old faced Tampa Bay four times in the regular season and went 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA, including a win in the most recent meeting on July 23. Lester is 2-3 with a 2.57 ERA in eight career postseason games - six starts - but went 0-2 against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in Lester's last seven home starts vs. Rays.
* Rays are 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.
* Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Boston.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Red Sox are expected to go with Jonny Gomes in left field against the left-handed Moore over Daniel Nava and Mike Carp.

2. The Rays beat Boston in seven games in the 2008 ALCS - the only postseason meeting between the teams.

3. Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria is batting just .196 with 34 strikeouts in 26 postseason games.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (+112, 6.5)

The Oakland Athletics have a recent history of making the playoffs only to disappoint when the postseason begins. They will set about changing that when they host the Detroit Tigers in the opener of the American League Division Series on Friday. The Tigers are enjoying their third straight trip to the postseason and advanced to the Championship Series in each of the past two seasons.

The Athletics made the playoffs six times since 2000 and advanced past the Division Series only once, when they were swept out of the ALCS by Detroit in 2006. The Tigers played heartbreaker for Oakland last October as well, claiming a 6-0 victory in a decisive Game 5 of the ALDS. The big difference this time around is the health of Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera, who is dealing with abdominal and groin injuries and managed just two extra-base hits in his final 25 games.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing NNE at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65)

Scherzer is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award and finished the season with a gem, striking out 10 and allowing two hits in seven scoreless innings at Minnesota. The 29-year-old punched out eight and yielded an unearned run on three hits 5 1/3 innings against Oakland in Game 4 last October but was left without a decision when the bullpen blew the save. Scherzer was lit up by the Athletics on Aug. 29, surrendering six runs (five earned) over five innings in another no decision.

Colon finished up the season with four straight wins, posting a 1.04 ERA and issuing only four walks in that span. The burly veteran went up against Scherzer on Aug. 29 and did not factor in the decision, allowing one run on seven hits in five innings. Colon missed the playoffs last season but is 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA in nine career postseason starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1-2 in Scherzers last seven starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Oakland.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Athletics LF Yoenis Cespedes (shoulder) is hoping to play the outfield on Friday but could be stuck at DH, leaving Brandon Moss in left.

2. Detroit RHP Bruce Rondon (elbow inflammation) and LHP Phil Coke (forearm) will not appear in the ALDS.

3. Oakland RHP A.J. Griffin, who posted a 3.83 ERA over 200 innings in the regular season, was left off the ALDS roster due to mild tendinitis in his right elbow.

StatFox Super Situations

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
Play On - Home teams (OAKLAND) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts 93-53 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.7% 39.5 units ) 19-17 this year. ( 52.8% 1.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB TAMPA BAY at BOSTON
TAMPA BAY is 37-16 (+21.2 Units) against the money line in Road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: TAMPA BAY (5.3) , OPPONENT (3.7)