MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 6th, 2017

MLB Playoffs

Boston @ Houston
Astros are 5-3 vs Boston this season; road team won five of the eight games.

Pomeranz is 3-1, 2.08 in his last five starts; over is 12-8-2 in his last 22 starts. Boston is 7-5 in his road starts. He is 1-0, 1.46 in two starts vs Houston this season.

Keuchel is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Astros are 5-4 in his home starts; he didn’t pitch against Boston this season.

Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

New York @ Cleveland
New York is 2-6 vs Cleveland this season; road teams won five of the eight games. Losing team scored 1 or 2 runs in seven of the eight games.

Sabathia is 3-0, 2.55 in his last three starts under is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. New York is 8-5 in his road starts; he didn’t pitch against Cleveland this year.

Kluber is 6-0, 1.41 in his last seven starts; his last four starts stayed under. Cleveland is 9-5 in his home starts; he is 2-0, 1.59 against New York this year.

New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs.

Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.

Chicago @ Washington
Washington was 4-3 against the Cubs this season (over 5-2).

Hendricks is 3-1, 2.20 in his last seven starts; his last six starts stayed under. He is 0-1, 3.86 vs Washington this year. Cubs are 5-6 in his road starts.

Strasburg is 5-0, 0.86 in his last six starts; under is 8-1-1 in his last ten starts. Washington is 9-4 in his home starts. He allowed three runs in seven IP in his only ’17 start against the Cubs.

Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.

Arizona @ Los Angeles
Arizona won its last six games with the Dodgers; they’re 11-8 vs LA this season, 4-5 in Chavez Ravine. Over is 10-9 in those games this season.

Walker is 0-2, 6.41 in his last four starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten starts. Arizona is 3-6 in his last nine road starts. Walker is 2-0, 3.24 in three starts against the Dodgers this year.

Kershaw is 2-2, 4.55 in his last five starts; he is 4-7, 3.64 in 14 career playoff starts. Dodgers are 10-2 in his road starts. His last four starts stayed under the total. Kershaw is 2-0, 0.59 against Arizona this season.

Dodgers haven’t been to the World Series since 1988; this is their 5th year in a row in playoffs. Arizona won the Wild Card game 11-8 Wednesday; this is the first time they’re in the playoffs since 2011.

Armadillosports.com

NLDS Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Washington 4-3, Under 4-3)

Washington vs. Chicago (Nationals Park)
June 26 - Cubs 5 Nationals 4 (Under 10)
June 27 - Nationals 6 Cubs 1 (Under 7.5)
June 28 - Nationals 8 Cubs 4 (Over 8.5)
June 29 - Cubs 5 Nationals 4 (Under 9.5)

Chicago vs. Washington (Wrigley Field)
Aug. 4 - Nationals 4 Cubs 2 (Under 9)
Aug. 5 - Cubs 7 Nationals 4 (Over 10.5)
Aug. 6 - Nationals 9 Cubs 4 (Over 9.5)

The Cubs suffered through an early season World Series hangover, but are back in the playoffs seeking back-to-back titles. Chicago hooks up with Washington for the first time ever in the postseason as the Nationals hope this is finally their year to break through and capture the National League pennant.

Chicago (92-70) surprisingly went into the All-Star break with a below .500 record at 43-45, capped off by an ugly 14-3 loss to Pittsburgh. The break exactly is what Joe Maddon’s team needed, as the Cubs won its first six games to kick off the second half, while going 14-3 in a 17-game stretch to overtake the Brewers for first place in the NL Central. After getting swept by Milwaukee in mid-September, the Cubs put together a 15-4 run to pull away from the Brewers to claim back-to-back division titles for the first time since 2007 and 2008.

The Cubs feature a pair of veteran southpaws at the top of the rotation heading into their title defense that will start Games 2 and 3. Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 ERA) closed out an up and down season by going 5-1 in September, which includes four quality starts in his last five trips to the mound. Lester posted a pair of no-decisions in two starts against Washington this season, as the Cubs rallied for three ninth inning runs in a 5-4 triumph at National Park in late June. The southpaw scattered three hits and allowed one earned run in six innings that night, but gave up three earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 9-4 home loss to Washington in August as a -190 favorite.

The second left-hander looking to slow down Washington’s offense is Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15 ERA). The former White Sox hurler put together a 7-3 record in 14 starts with the Cubs, while the North Siders won each of his final six outings. The Cubs won seven of Quintana’s eight starts at Wrigley Field, while not allowing a run in his last two road starts at Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. Quintana will make his playoff debut in Game 3 back at Wrigley, where the Cubs won five of eight games in the 2016 postseason.

However, Maddon will send out right-hander Kyle Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 ERA) in the series opener at Washington. Hendricks started Game 7 of the World Series in 2016 as he allowed two runs in 4.2 innings, while Chicago won three of his five postseason starts. The former Dartmouth standout started opposite Clayton Kershaw twice in the NLDS series win over the Dodgers, while squaring off with Kluber in the pivotal Game 7 classic at Cleveland. Returning to this season, Hendricks owned a perfect 6-0 record in night action, but lost in his only start against Washington in a 4-2 setback as a -165 home favorite, giving up three earned runs in seven innings.

The Nationals (97-65) took home their third NL East title in the last four seasons by winning at least 95 games for the third time in this span. Washington cruised to the division title as the Nats never lost more than four straight games, while not suffering through a three-game skid after the All-Star break. The Nats started 21-9, while picking up 47 of its 97 victories against divisional opponents.

Washington isn’t sure when reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA) will start in the NLDS after suffering a hamstring strain in his final regular season start against the Pirates. Scherzer was winless in a pair of one-run defeats to the Dodgers in last year’s postseason, while his teams are 0-5 in his past five playoff starts since 2013.

Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52 ERA) closed the season on fire by going 5-0 in his final seven starts, while the Nationals put together a 13-2 record in his last 15 outings. Washington won 11 of his 14 starts at Nationals Park (two losses came to Atlanta), including an 8-4 victory over Chicago in late June as he struck out 13 in seven innings of work. Strasburg has made only one playoff start in his career, losing a 3-2 decision to the Giants in the 2013 NLDS as a -190 home favorite in spite of allowing two runs in five innings.

2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Arizona 11-8, Over 10-9)

Los Angeles vs. Arizona (Dodger Stadium)
Apr. 14 - Dodgers 7 D-backs 1 (Over 6)
Apr. 15 - Dodgers 8 D-backs 4 (Over 7.5)
Apr. 16 - D-backs 3 Dodgers 1 (Under 7.5)
Apr. 17 - D-backs 4 Dodgers 2 (Under 7.5)

July 4 - Dodgers 4 D-backs 3 (Under 7.5)
July 5 - Dodgers 1 D-backs 0 (Under 7.5)
July 6 - Dodgers 5 D-backs 4 (Over 7.5)

Sep. 4 - D-backs 13 Dodgers 0 (Over 8.5)
Sep. 5 - D-backs 3 Dodgers 1 (Under 7.5)
Sep. 6 - D-backs 3 Dodgers 1 (Under 8 )

Arizona vs. Los Angeles (Chase Field)
Apr. 21 - D-backs 13 Dodgers 5 (Over 9.5)
Apr. 22 - D-backs 11 Dodgers 5 (Over 9)
Apr. 23 - Dodgers 6 D-backs 2 (Under 9)

Aug. 8 - D-backs 6 Dodgers 3 (Under 9.5)
Aug. 9 - Dodgers 3 D-backs 2 (Under 9)
Aug. 10 - Dodgers 8 D-backs 6 (Over 9)

Aug. 29 - D-backs 7 Dodgers 6 (Over 9)
Aug. 30 - D-backs 6 Dodgers 4 (Over 9.5)
Aug. 31 - D-backs 8 Dodgers 1 (Over 8.5)

The Dodgers didn’t have to worry about traveling far for its NLDS matchup against either the Diamondbacks or Rockies. Arizona outlasted Colorado in the Wild Card game on Wednesday, 11-8 to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2011. The D-backs won 11 of 18 matchups with the Dodgers this season, including a pair of sweeps in a nine-day span from late August through early September.

Los Angeles (104-58) busted the 100-win plateau for the first time since 1974, while capturing its fifth consecutive NL West title. The Dodgers had their share of ups and downs in spite of racking up the second-most wins in franchise history as L.A. went through an incredible 50-game stretch halfway through the season posting a 43-7 mark. However, Dave Roberts’ team also suffered through a dreadful 1-14 run from late August through mid-September, which included an 11-game losing streak.

Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA) is on his way to a fourth Cy Young award as the Dodgers’ ace overcame a five-week absence with a back injury. Kershaw’s numbers were identical at home and on the road (9-2), while the Dodgers won 23 of his 27 starts this season. He never started at Chase Field this season, but beat the D-backs twice at Dodger Stadium, yielding one earned run in 15.1 innings, while striking out 19. Los Angeles owns a 4-6 record in Kershaw’s last 10 playoff starts, as four of those defeats came on the road.

The Dodgers looked to bolster their rotation by acquiring Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) at the trade deadline from Texas. Darvish struggled toward the end of his tenure with the Rangers as Texas compiled a 2-10 record in his final 12 starts. The move to Los Angeles has been a roller coaster ride as the Dodgers won his first three starts, lost his following three outings, but concluded with a 2-0 record in his final three starts, while allowing two runs (one earned) in 17.1 innings. Darvish picked up a victory in his lone start against Arizona at Chase Field on August 10 by striking out 10 in five innings of an 8-6 triumph.

Arizona (93-69) overcame a disappointing 69-93 mark in 2016 to reverse its record in 2017 under new manager Torey Lovullo. The D-backs won 10 of its first 15 games, including a home sweep of the defending AL champion Indians. Arizona had one hiccup during this season, losing five straight in July to Cincinnati and Atlanta. However, the D-backs heated up in August by winning 13 straight games, capped off by a three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium, while holding Los Angeles to two runs.

Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20 ERA) was cruising along in Wednesday’s Wild Card game against Colorado by not allowing a run in the first three innings. The wheels fell off the wagon in the fourth inning as the Rockies tagged Greinke for four runs and he exited with a 6-4 lead. Arizona held on for the victory as the D-backs improved to 16-3 in Greinke’s starts at Chase Field this season, compared to a 7-7 mark on the road. Greinke lost his first two starts to the Dodgers this season, but bounced back with a pair of victories in which he allowed two earned runs as an underdog in the final month.

The D-backs had to call on Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA) for relief work in the Wild Card game in which he struck out three batters in 2.1 innings. Ray recorded 218 strikeouts this season, which ranked third in the National League, while picking up double-digit strikeouts in four of five starts against the Dodgers. Arizona posted a 4-1 record in Ray’s five outings against Los Angeles, while the D-backs won his final eight starts of the season.

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Boston at Houston (-175); Total: 8.5

The series could not have started any worse for the Boston Red Sox. Not only did they do very little offensively once Justin Verlander settled in, but Chris Sale was tagged for seven runs and that was a game that absolutely had to be won given how the rest of the series appears to shake out. Today, the Red Sox are huge underdogs to Dallas Keuchel and the Astros.

I’m going to let the cat out of the bag early here. I really like Drew Pomeranz. This number is too high. However, I’m not trusting Drew Pomeranz in this format and certainly not against the best lineup of the eight remaining playoff teams. The biggest issue with Pomeranz in this spot is that he struggles to be efficient with his pitch count. In the playoffs, when managers hit the abort button on starters very quickly, John Farrell could make a panic move here and bring in somebody much less talented in hopes of bridging the game to the back end of his bullpen.

Pomeranz was solid during the season with a 3.32 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP. He had over a strikeout per inning and pitched well in leverage spots with an 80 percent LOB%. He also did a good job of keeping the ball in the park. On the other hand, in the second half, his K% fell from 25.5 percent to 21.4 percent. His walk rate increased from 8.3 percent to 10.4 percent. We didn’t see a big drop in numbers, but his 4.64 xFIP stands out as something to be worried about, especially against a lineup like the Astros. Dave Cameron wrote about some concerns with Pomeranz on September 26, in case you needed more fuel for the fire.

Dallas Keuchel isn’t the type of profile that I love, but, nobody commands the bottom of the zone better than Keuchel. I don’t love it because extreme ground ball guys can be prone to more variance than other pitchers because balls sometimes just find holes. But, in today’s lift and separate craze to hit fly balls, Keuchel’s 66.8 percent rate of worm murder is an even bigger asset. His advanced metrics soured on his low strikeout rate as we set another league-wide high in strikeouts, but I can’t ignore just how well he uses the bottom of the zone. Now, to play devil’s advocate, this is a better matchup for the Red Sox than yesterday’s against Justin Verlander. The big knock against Verlander is his home run rate. The Red Sox don’t hit home runs, so they couldn’t take advantage. This is a pitch-to-contact starter, which does play to their strengths, even if Keuchel limits damage by getting so many ground balls.

With the blowout win, the Astros were able to manage their bullpen and keep everybody fresh for today. The Red Sox didn’t burn any of their real good arms, so they are in decent shape as well. The play for me here is the first five innings over the total. Pomeranz has a bad matchup and the Red Sox have the best shot that they’re going to have on offense against Keuchel.

Chicago at Washington (-160); Total: 7

The Cubs begin their title defense on the road in Washington against the Nationals. Kyle Hendricks is something of a surprise Game 1 starter for the Cubs, but he has been tremendous since his return. Stephen Strasburg was forced into Game 1 duty because of the hamstring injury to Max Scherzer. The Nationals are a clear favorite here and I think that this is a pretty fair line overall.

Hendricks turned in a solid season with a 3.03 ERA, a 3.88 FIP, and a 3.76 xFIP over 139.2 innings of work. It feels like last year’s heavy workload affected him early on in the season, but he was able to get things back on track after he came off the DL. Since his July 24 return, Hendricks has posted a 2.19 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.50 xFIP. One of my beliefs about the playoffs is that command guys like Hendricks can sometimes have more success than stuff guys. Stuff guys tend to overthrow and can get erratic with the fastball or bounce too many breaking balls. Stuff guys know that they don’t get by with velocity or devastating breaking balls. They get by with sequencing and changing eye levels. A guy like Hendricks is perfect for this because he has one of the game’s most underrated changeups. As far as offensive performance against changeups goes, the Nationals were 22nd in PITCHf/x pitch type linear weights against changeups at 10.9 runs below average. The Cubs also use Hendricks knowing that they have a full bullpen to deploy.

Stephen Strasburg has to be an ace for the Nationals in Max Scherzer’s absence. Given what he did in the regular season, that seems plausible. Strasburg posted a 2.52 ERA with a 2.72 FIP and a 3.27 xFIP in his 175.1 innings of work. He struck out 204 batters in his work against just 47 walks. Strasburg has been excellent and that is a big deal for the Nationals because they have been below average offensively in the second half. While both offenses have nearly identical full-season numbers, the Cubs thrived in the second half with a .273/.352/.459 slash, a .345 wOBA, and a 110 wRC+. The Nationals posted just a .252/.316/.428 slash with a .316 wOBA and a 90 wRC+ in the second half. One team has been a steadily depreciating asset and the other has been hitting its stride. After all, the Cubs led all of baseball in second half position player fWAR and it wasn’t particularly close. The Cubs were tops at 15.7. The Twins were next at 14.3. The Indians were next at 14.0 and, remember, they won 22 games in a row at one point. St. Louis was next at 12.7. The Nationals were 17th at 8.1 and were worth a lot more defensively than they were offensively.

As I wrote in my preview, I think the Cubs series price has some serious value and I think they have value in this game today with the big underdog price. Hendricks is a command artist and I think that stuff plays up in the playoffs when other pitchers are overthrowing and hitters are being too aggressive.

Arizona at Los Angeles (-270); Total: 7.5

Look, I know what you want to do here. Everybody, and I mean everybody, knows about the playoff struggles of Clayton Kershaw. You’re going to want to play on that narrative and fade the Dodgers and Kershaw as an overwhelming favorite. I would just caution you to seriously consider what the small 89-inning playoff sample means for Kershaw relative to what he’s done throughout his regular season career.

That’s not to say that I’d lay it with the Dodgers, nor will I be looking at the run line or an alternate run line, but I’d still be careful dumping money into that narrative. If you want to throw a half unit on the Diamondbacks to take a shot at a huge dog in a playoff game, I can’t find much fault with that. If you want to play the over as a Kershaw fade, I can’t find much fault with that. I’d rather see Zack Godley going here for the Diamondbacks than Taijuan Walker, but it also makes quite a bit of sense to save Godley for a more winnable game against Rich Hill tomorrow. If you can steal this one, it’s that much better.

Edit: Apparently, Robbie Ray is going tomorrow? I don’t get it, but okay.

This series will be an exercise in betting the underdog because of line value because the line will be inflated in every game of the series. I don’t know how many times the Diamondbacks will actually win, but this will be a series where it’s basically dog or nothing I would think.

Friday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds
Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-160, 8.5)

Jose Altuve looks for another memorable performance as his Houston Astros vie for a 2-0 lead in the American League Division Series on Friday afternoon against the visiting Boston Red Sox. Altuve, the AL batting champion three of the last four years, including 2017, launched three solo homers in the series opener on Thursday as the Astros posted an 8-2 victory after taking three of four at Boston to end the regular season.

Altuve went 10-for-24 with one blast against the Red Sox in the regular season on the way to a career-high .346 overall batting average, a .410 on-base percentage, 24 homers and 81 RBIs. Altuve is 7-for-17 with a double and a walk versus Boston’s scheduled starter Drew Pomeranz, who finished the regular season strong and will face 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel on Friday. Slugger Hanley Ramirez recorded a pair of hits in the opener after coming on when Eduardo Nunez suffered a knee injury, while Mookie Betts and Sandy Leon also notched two hits apiece as the Red Sox lost their fourth consecutive postseason contest after being swept by Cleveland in the last year's ALDS. Boston will need more from Dustin Pedroia, who went 0-for-3 with a walk on Thursday and was 3-for-36 to end the regular season while hampered by a lingering knee injury.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32 ERA) vs. Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90)

Pomeranz won three of his last four decisions during the regular season and gave up fewer than two runs in three of his final four appearances. The 28-year-old went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road this year and 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two starts against the Astros. Carlos Correa (3-for-5) and Jake Marisnick (4-for-12, two homers) have caused plenty of trouble for Pomeranz, who is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 12 career games (seven starts) versus Houston.

Keuchel finished the regular season strong, limiting his final three opponents and seven of the last nine to fewer than three earned runs. The 29-year-old Tulsa native is 36-20 all-time at Minute Maid Park, including 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA this year, and went 2-0 there in the 2015 postseason. Ramirez is 2-for-2 while Betts and Xander Bogaerts each have homered versus Keuchel, who is 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against Boston.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 17-4 in Pomeranz's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Astros are 12-2 in their last 14 home games.
* Over is 11-2 in Astros' last 132 Divisional Playoff games.
* Under is 13-3 in Hernandez's last 16 games behind home plate.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Astros with 65 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing 56 percent of the totals wagers.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (-220, 7)

The current ace of the Cleveland Indians faces a former one in Game 2 of the American League Division Series on Friday as Corey Kluber gets the start opposite CC Sabathia and the visiting New York Yankees. Kluber, a prime candidate to pick up his second career AL Cy Young Award after leading the majors in ERA, will be eager to attack a Yankees lineup that was limited to three hits in Cleveland's series-opening 4-0 victory on Thursday.

Slugger Aaron Judge was 0-for-4 with four of New York's 14 strikeouts, while fellow right fielder Jay Bruce homered and drove in three of the Indians' four runs. Cleveland managed only five hits of its own but wore out Yankees right-hander Sonny Gray, who walked four and gave up three runs over 3 1/3 innings in the second straight poor start by a New York pitcher this postseason. Kluber was dominant in the playoffs a year ago, going 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts - including seven scoreless innings against Boston in his lone ALDS outing. Sabathia, who is 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 10 starts following a loss this year, registered 106 wins and claimed a Cy Young Award during his eight years with the Indians.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH CC Sabathia (14-5, 3.69 ERA) vs. Indians RH Corey Kluber (18-4, 2.25)

Sabathia posted his best win total since 2013 and his lowest ERA since 2012 in a solid campaign that ended with victories in each of his final three starts. The 37-year-old will be making his first postseason appearance since giving up six runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of Game 4 of the 2012 AL Championship Series. Carlos Santana (10-for-19), Francisco Lindor (5-for-9) and Jose Ramirez (4-for-8 ) have enjoyed their encounters with Sabathia, who last faced the Indians on Aug. 6, 2016.

Kluber also led or tied for the lead in the AL in wins, complete games (five) and shutouts (three) while finishing the regular season by going 6-0 in his final seven starts. That run began with eight dominant innings at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 28, a performance that came less than four weeks after he registered 11 strikeouts in a complete-game home victory over New York. Several Yankees have dismal numbers against Kluber, including Todd Frazier (3-for-26, 10 strikeouts), Aaron Hicks (3-for-23, eight), Chase Headley (1-for-14), Didi Gregorius (2-for-13) and Starlin Castro (2-for-12).

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff road games.
* Indians are 5-0 in Klubers last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
* Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
* Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 overall.

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (-160, 7)

The man who took the ball to start the Chicago Cubs’ World Series clincher gets it again Friday. The Cubs send Kyle Hendricks to the mound opposite fellow right-hander Stephen Strasburg when visiting Chicago begins its quest for another crown in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals.

The Cubs are trying to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000, and only one team since then - the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies - have returned to the World Series the year after winning. "There was maybe a little more pressure last year because you feel the weight of 108 years on your shoulders,” Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant told reporters. “This year, it's not like it's different, we're here for one reason - we want to win the whole thing. Regardless if we won it last year or 108 years ago, it doesn't matter to us." Now it’s the Nationals who are trying to get over the hump after being knocked out in the NLDS three times in the past five seasons. The franchise has not won a postseason series since it was in Montreal in 1981.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52)

Hendricks struggled early in the season, but he has posted an NL-best 2.19 ERA since returning from a hand injury July 24. The 27-year-old has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts over that stretch, but he gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to Washington on Aug. 4. Hendricks is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA in seven postseason starts.

Strasburg was dominant in 10 starts after the All-Star break, going 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 62 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old allowed more than one run only twice over that span, and he hasn’t lost since Aug. 19. Strasburg has made only one postseason start - in the 2014 NLDS against San Francisco - and allowed two runs (one earned) over five innings in a tough-luck loss.

TRENDS:

* Cubs are 23-5 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Nationals are 45-11 in Strasburg's last 56 starts.
* Under is 9-1 in Hendricks' last 10 road starts.
* Under is 20-3-4 in Nationals' last 27 during game 1 of a series.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Nationals with 57 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a 71 percent of the totals wagers.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-250, 7.5)

Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his era but postseason success has often eluded the Los Angeles Dodgers' ace left-hander. Kershaw looks to improve on his spotty playoff resume when he opens the National League Division Series against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner stands just 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 career appearances (14 starts) in the postseason and is looking to help propel the team with the best record (104-58) in the majors to its first World Series berth since 1988. "I'm sure every year I feel like we're going to win the World Series. This year is no different," Kershaw told reporters. "We've had a better regular season than I've ever been a part of." Arizona, which defeated the Colorado Rockies 11-8 in Wednesday's NL wild-card game, isn't about to back down from the Dodgers after winning the regular-season series 11-8. "Look, the Dodgers got on a tremendous run there, and I think they were steamrolling teams and intimidating teams, and I don't think we have that mentality," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said. "We love that battle mindset. We love that challenge."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.49 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31)

Walker was named the starter early Thursday evening, an assignment that opened up after All-Star left-hander Robbie Ray was needed to pitch in relief in the wild-card game. The 25-year-old was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers this season and said he will be aware of his nerves in what is his first career postseason appearance. "I think the biggest thing is controlling your emotions and taking it one pitch at a time," Walker said at a press conference. "I think you can't go out there and let the adrenaline really get to you. You have to take a deep breath every pitch and really focus on each pitch."

Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks in two starts this season by going 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA and holding batters to a .118 average. The 29-year-old has a long standard of success against Arizona with a solid 2.55 career ERA in 26 career starts while going 14-8 with a 1.12 WHIP. The postseason issues are a concern to the Dodgers and manager Dave Roberts said during Thursday's press conference that it is "set in stone" that Kershaw won't be used on short rest and his next start would be in Game 5, if necessary.

TRENDS:

* Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Dodgers are 44-9 in Kershaw's last 53 starts.
* Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks' last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Diamondbacks are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Dodgers with 72 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a 64 percent of the totals wagers.