MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Martinez is 4-1, 2.96 in his last seven starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. St Louis is 6-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-3
Lackey is 1-2, 4.25 in his last five starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Cubs are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-16-2
St Louis is 9-2 in its last 11 games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Cardinals are 12-8 in last 20 road series openers. Cubs won their last three game, scoring 39 runs; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Chicago is 5-1 in last six home series openers.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Wood is 0-2, 4.88 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Dodgers are 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-2
Jackson is 1-3, 6.43 in his last four starts (under 7-2-1). Washington is 3-5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-2
Dodgers are 2-11 in last 13 games, but won last two; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. LA is 12-4 in last 16 road series openers. Washington won seven of last ten games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.
Pirates @ Reds
Kuhl is 1-1, 2.45 in his last three starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11. Pirates are 3-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-5
Bailey is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Reds are 1-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1
Pirates lost seven of last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Pittsburgh is 4-8 in last 12 road series openers. Reds lost five of last seven games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Cincy is 12-7 in last 19 home series openers.
Marlins @ Brewers (Miami will be “home” team, bat last. Game is in Milwaukee, though)
Urena is 4-1, 3.26 in his last seven starts; under is 6-3-2 in his last 11. Miami is 10-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3
Davies is 3-1, 1.69 in his last four starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11. Milwaukee is 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-6
Marlins lost 15 of last 17 games; over is 7-1 in their last eight. Miami is 2-5 in last seven road series openers. Milwaukee won five of its last six games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Brewers are 2-4 in last six home series openers.
Mets @ Braves
Montero is 3-0, 2.41 in his last three starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12. Mets are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-2
Newcomb is 0-1, 6.14 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Atlanta is 3-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-11
Mets lost their last seven road games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. New York is 7-12 in last 19 road series openers. Atlanta won four of its last five games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Braves are 2-7 in last nine home series openers.
Padres @ Rockies
Richard is 2-1, 3.21 in his last five starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. San Diego is 4-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-14-2
Chatwood is 1-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (only 8 IP). His last four starts went over. Colorado is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-1
San Diego lost six of last nine games; under is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Padres are 8-15 in road series openers. Rockies won eight of their last 11 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Colorado is 17-6 in home series openers.
Diamondbacks @ Giant
Ray is 4-0, 1.42 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Arizona is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-7
Samardzija is 2-1, 3.48 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Giants are 8-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-15-6
Arizona is 16-4 in its last 20 games; under is 3-1-1 in its last five. Snakes are 14-9 in road series openers. Giants lost four 14 of last 19 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. SF is 8-15 in home series openers.
American League
White Sox @ Tigers
Fulmer is 1-1, 8.59 in two starts this season (over 1-0-1). This is his first road start. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Sanchez is 0-3, 13.78 in his last five starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Detroit is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1
White Sox won five of last six games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Detroit lost 12 of last 14 games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.
Red Sox @ Rays
Sale is 2-1, 1.56 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 11-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-8
Andriese is 0-2, 15.43 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4
Boston won six of last eight games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Red Sox are 10-13 in road series openers. Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games; their last four games stayed under. Rays are 9-13 in home series openers.
Royals @ Indians
Vargas is 1-4, 8.34 in his last five starts; over is 10-7 in his last 17 starts. Royals are 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2
Bauer is 9-0, 2.53 in his last ten starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Indians are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-3
Royals lost three of last four games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Cleveland won its last 22 games; under is 16-5 in their last 21 home games.
Baltimore @ New York
Ynoa allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-2 loss. Orioles’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Severino is 3-1, 2.20 in his last five starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine starts. New York is 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-3
Orioles lost seven of last eight games; six of their last seven games stayed under. New York won five of last six games (under 4-2).
Mariners @ Astros
Paxton is making his first start since August 10; he is 7-0, 1.92 in his last eight starts. Seattle is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-4
Morton is 1-2, 5.14 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Houston is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-2
Mariners lost six of their last nine road games; eight of their last ten games overall stayed under. Seattle is 10-4 in last 14 road series openers. Astros lost five of their last seven games, five of which went over the total. Houston is 6-3 in last nine home series openers.
Blue Jays @ Twins
Happ is 2-0, 3.06 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Toronto is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-1
Colon is 0-2, 6.91 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Minnesota is 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1
Blue Jays won four of last six games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Minnesota won six of last eight games; over is 6-4 in their last ten home games.
Rangers @ Angels
Martinez is 0-3, 7.17 in his las four starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten starts. Texas is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9-2
Heaney is 0-2, 11.12 in his last two starts; over is 3-2 in his starts. Angels are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3
Texas lost six of last eight games; over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games. Rangers are 11-12 in road series openers. Angels lost five of last seven games, six of which stayed under. Halos are 1-4 in last five home series openers.
Interleague
A’s @ Phillies
Mengden is 0-1, 8.31 in three starts this season (over 2-1). Oakland lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1
Leiter is 1-2, 9.00 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Phillies are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
A’s won six of their last eight games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Oakland is 1-8 in last nine road series openers. Philly won four of its last five games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Phillies are 4-2 in last six home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
StL-Chi: Martinez 15-14; Lackey 16-10
LA-Wsh: Wood 16-6; Jackson 5-5
Pitt-Cin: Kuhl 11-18; Bailey 5-10
Mia-Mil: Urena 16-8; Davies 19-11
NY-Atl: Montero 7-8; Newcomb 5-11
SD-Colo: Richard 12-17; Chatwood 9-13
Az-SF: Ray 16-8; Samardzija 13-15
American League
Balt-NYY: Ynoa 0-1; Severino 17-11
Bos-TB: Sale 20-9; Andriese 6-8
Chi-Det: Fulmer 1-1; Sanchez 6-7
KC-Clev: Vargas 17-11; Bauer 17-11
Sea-Hst: Paxton 13-7; Morton 13-9
Tor-Minn: Happ 9-13; Colon 5-6
Tex-LA: Martinez 7-8; Heaney 1-4
Interleague
A’s-Phil: Mengden 2-1; Leiter 4-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
StL-Chi: Martinez 11-29; Lackey 14-26
LA-Wsh: Wood 4-22; Jackson 4-10
Pitt-Cin: Kuhl 5-29; Bailey 7-15
Mia-Mil: Urena 4-24; Davies 8-30
NY-Atl: Montero 3-15; Newcomb 5-16
SD-Colo: Richard 9-29; Chatwood 5-22
Az-SF: Ray 8-24; Samardzija 12-28
American League
Balt-NYY: Ynoa 0-1; Severino 6-28
Bos-TB: Sale 2-29; Andriese 8-14
Chi-Det: Fulmer 0-2; Sanchez 3-13
KC-Clev: Vargas 6-28; Bauer 4-28
Sea-Hst: Paxton 1-20; Morton 3-22
Tor-Minn: Happ 4-22; Colon 1-11
Tex-LA: Martinez 4-15; Heaney 1-5
Interleague
A’s-Phil: Mengden 0-3; Leiter 4-8
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 83-56 AL, favorites -$36
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 150-128 AL, favorites -$1
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-67-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 144-126-11
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Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (+135, 9.5)
We get what may be a preview of the National League Championship series as the NL West leading Dodgers visit the NL East leading Nationals for a three-game set beginning Friday night in Washington.
There was definitely a playoff atmosphere the last time these two teams met, despite the fact the series took place in June. All close hard fought games, with the Nats taking the series two games to one, but by a total score of just 7-5, resulting in the Under going 3-0.
That was thanks to matchups like Clayton Kershaw vs. Stephen Strasburg, Brandon McCarthy vs. Max Scherzer and Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Gio Gonzalez. This time we get Alex Wood vs. Edwin Jackson. Not the same shine, right?
While Wood is an All-Star and has been excellent for the Dodgers this season, he has struggled recently. The lefty is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his last three starts and that includes matchups with the Padres and Pirates.
Wood faces a Washington lineup that ranks third in average and fourth in slugging in the Big Leagues against lefties this season.
Meanwhile Jackson, who was signed as a fill in midway through the season, makes his 11th straight start, but his last three have also been tough. The Nats’ right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in those starts.
The Over is 6-0 in Dodgers’ last six games vs. a right-handed starter, that trend continuing is a good bet tonight.
Pick: Over 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (+145, 7.5)
One team that would like to through a wrench in the plans for a Dodgers-Nationals NLCS would have to be the Diamondbacks. They head on the road for a six-game road trip, beginning tonight in San Francisco against the Giants.
Despite not getting the attention (positive or negative) that the Dodgers are getting, the D-backs have quietly improved their record to 85-62 to hold the top NL Wild Card spot by five games.
They have done so thanks to a balanced offense (ninth in runs per game, seventh in OPS and stolen bases) and a pitching staff that has been spectacular (third in ERA and quality starts, sixth in WHIP and strikeouts).
One of those pitching standouts has been Robbie Ray. The southpaw is 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP and more impressively, he has been even better on the road. Ray is 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 12 starts away from Chase Field.
Oh, here’s the numbers from his last three starts: 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP, while striking out 36 and walking four. Yeah.
Did we mention they’re playing the last place Giants?
Pick: Diamondbacks -164
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 142-135-14
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Luis Severino, New York Yankees
The Yankees young right-hander is turning into the ace of the staff right before his teammates eyes and in the middle of a pennant race no less.
New York has won four of his last five starts, where Severino has pitched to a 1.38 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. In fact, if you take away one brutal outing back on August 12 against the Red Sox, the Yankees have won 10 of Severino’s last 11 starts, where he has a 1.37 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP. So, yeah, he’s been good.
Severino and the Yankees are big -270 home chalk tonight against the Orioles.
Slumping: Matt Andriese, Tampa Bay Rays
To put it nicely, Andriese has been not good. The Rays have lost the right-hander’s last four starts and in three of those games he failed to get out of the second inning. Ouch. In those four starts Andriese is 0-2 with a whopping 13.50 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP.
Andriese and the Rays hope he can put his struggles behind him, but they’ll be big +170 home dogs tonight against Chris Sale and the Red Sox.
Friday's Top Trends
* Indians are 6-0 in Trevor Bauer's last six starts... and if you've been living under a rock, 22-0 in their last 22 overall. Indians -200 vs. Royals.
* Mets are 0-7 in their last seven road games. Mets +125 @ Braves.
* Marlins are 2-15 in their last 17 overall. Marlins -115 vs. Brewers.
* Twins are 11-2 in their last 13 home games. Twins -105 vs. Blue Jays.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
It should mostly be a beautfil day for September baseball around the Big Leagues, with only a slight chance of rain (20 percent) at Yankee Stadium for their matchup versus the Orioles and a bit of pitchers wind at Target Field for when the Twins host the Blue Jays.
Ump Of The Day
Chris Segal: It's been a season of interesting splits for Segal. After starting the season as a bit of an Over ump, with it going 11-6 (64.7 percent) in his first 17 games, there has been a stark turnaround over his past nine, with the Under going 8-1 (88.9 percent). Segal has a fairly high strike rate a 64.05 percent as well. He will be calling balls and strikes for tonight's game in Detroit between the White Sox and Tigers, where the total is currently 9.5.