MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, September 1st, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Cubs
Foltynewicz is 0-4, 11.12 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Braves are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-6

Lackey is 0-1, 10.24 in his last two starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Cubs are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-15-2

Atlanta is 5-4 in its last nine road games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 road games. Cubs won five of last six games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

Reds @ Pirates
Castillo is 0-2, 1.59 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Reds scored total of 3 runs in his last three starts; they’re 2-4 in his road starts. Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1

Cole is 2-0, 3.95 in his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 1-0, 2.08 in two starts vs Cincy this season. Pirates are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-6

Cincinnati is 4-6 in its last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Reds are 9-14 in road series openers. Pirates are 3-7 in last ten games; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Bucs are 9-12 in home series openers.

Phillies @ Marlins
Pivetta is 1-2, 12.53 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. he is 1-1, 12.15 against Miami this year. Phillies are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-2

Peters is making his MLB debut here; he is 6-2, 1.97 in nine AA starts this season. He was 3-0, 1.99 in four AA starts LY, his only experience above A ball.

Phillies are 3-5 in last eight road games (over 5-3). Marlins lost their last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Nationals @ Brewers
Roark is 2-1, 4.01 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Washington is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-2

Nelson is 1-1, 8.31 in his last four starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Brewers are 6-1 in his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-14-2

Washington won four of its last five games; six of their last seven games went over. Milwaukee won six of their last seven home games; eight of their last 11 games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Walker is 1-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; under is 6-4 in his last 10 starts. He is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Colorado this season. Arizona is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4

Freeland is 0-1, 5.09 in his last three starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Colorado is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-1

Arizona won nine of last ten games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Diamondbacks are 12-9 in road series openers. Colorado lost four of last five home games; their last four games stayed under. Rockies are 16-5 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Padres
Kershaw’s last start was July 23; he is 5-0, 0.71 in his last six starts. Under is 5-4 in his road starts. He is 2-0, 1.88 vs San Diego this year. Dodgers are 8-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-2-3

Lamet is 4-1, 2.63 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). San Diego is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-1

Dodgers lost five games in row for first time this year; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. San Diego is 11-6 in its last 17 home games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Padres are 13-9 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Giants
Flaherty is making his MLB debut; he was 7-2, 2.74 in 15 AAA starts this season.

Stratton is 2-1, 0.96 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Giants won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Cardinals lost four of last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six. Giants lost six of their last seven games; nine of their last 11 games overall stayed under.

American League

Indians @ Tigers
Clevinger is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Indians are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-3

Carrasco is 3-1, 2.36 in his last four starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Indians are 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-1

Farmer is 0-2, 13.94 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Tigers are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Boyd is 0-3, 11.00 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-2 in his last 10 starts. Detroit is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-4

2nd DH is three days for Cleveland; Indians won their last seven games- three of their last four games went over. Tribe is 12-11 in road series openers, winning last four. Detroit lost five of last seven home games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 1-6 in last seven home series openers.

Boston @ New York
Fister is 3-2, 3.41 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1). Boston is 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Gray is 2-0, 2.07 in two home starts for New York; home side won all five of his NY starts (under 4-1). New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Red Sox won five of last seven road games; five of their last six games stayed under. New York lost three of its last four games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Biagini is 0-3, 9.42 in his last three starts (under 8-4). Toronto is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7

Gausman is 5-2, 2.26 in his last eight starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14

Toronto lost nine of last 12 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight. Orioles won eight of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Skaggs is 0-3, 5.26 in his last five starts (under 6-3-1). Angels are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-2

Hamels is 4-1, 3.24 in his last five starts; over is 8-4-1 in his last 13 starts. Texas is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-1-2

Angels won four of last five games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Halos are 9-12 in road series openers. Texas lost four of last six games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Rangers are 12-9 in home series openers.

Royals @ Twins
Hammel is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-6

Gee is 1-1, 4.50 in two starts this season (over 2-0), both of which were on road. Minnesota’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Royals lost six of last seven games (over 4-2-1). KC is 9-12 in road series openers. Minnesota won its last four games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games. Twins 12-10 in home series openers.

Rays @ White Sox
Snell is 2-0, 2.39 in his last four starts; under is 8-2 in his last 11. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-2

Lopez is 1-1, 6.97 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Home side won both his starts. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Rays won five of last seven games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 road games. Tampa Bay is 14-7 in road series openers. Chicago lost four of last five games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. White Sox won their last five home series openers.

A’s @ Mariners
Manaea is 1-3, 11.72 in his last five starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Oakland is 5-7 inches road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-5

Gallardo is 0-3, 8.44 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-3

A’s lost seven of last nine road games, six of last seven road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. Seattle lost its last five games; over is 3-1 in their last four. Mariners are 1-7 in last eight home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Chi: Foltynewicz 13-12 (0-4 last 4); Lackey 15-9
Cin-Pitt: Castillo 5-8; Cole 16-11
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 6-14; Peters 0-0
Wsh-Mil: Roark 15-9; Nelson 15-12
Az-Colo: Walker 12-10; Freeland 15-9
LA-SD: Kershaw 19-2; Lamet 9-7
StL-SF: Flaherty 0-0; Stratton 3-2

American League
Clev-Det: Clevinger 10-7 Carrasco 18-8; Farmer 3-2 Boyd 8-11
Tor-Balt: Biagini 4-8; Gausman 14-14
Bos-NY: Fister 4-5; Gray 2-3
LA-Tex: Skaggs 5-5; Hamels 10-7
KC-MIn: Hammel 8-18; Gee 1-1
TB-Chi: Snell 7-10; Lopez 1-1
A’s-Sea: Manaea 11-13; Gallardo 7-14

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Chi: Foltynewicz 4-25; Lackey 13-24
Cin-Pitt: Castillo 2-13; Cole 9-27
Phil-Mia: Pivetta 8-20; Peters 0-0
Wsh-Mil: Roark 9-24; Nelson 5-27
Az-Colo: Walker 6-22; Freeland 6-24
LA-SD: Kershaw 4-21; Lamet 5-16
StL-SF: Flaherty 0-0; Stratton 1-5

American League
Clev-Det: Clevinger 2-17 Carrasco 6-26; Farmer 2-5 Boyd 7-19
Tor-Balt: Biagini 5-12; Gausman 8-28
Bos-NY: Fister 4-9; Gray 3-21
LA-Tex: Skaggs 2-6-2; Hamels 7-17
KC-MIn: Hammel 4-26; Gee 0-2
TB-Chi: Snell 4-17; Lopez 0-2
A’s-Sea: Manaea 9-24; Gallardo 11-21

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 141-126 AL, favorites +$267

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 136-124-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-130); Total: 7.5

The Reds and Pirates are the first game on the board with any betting interest, as the two afternoon games feature lopsided lines. It will be Luis Castillo against Gerrit Cole in this tilt, as the Reds look to get another start or two out of the promising 24-year-old. Barring a total disaster, Castillo will cross the 160-inning mark in this start for the first time in his career. He’s already set a new high in innings pitched with 157.2 innings of work. A lot of pitchers fall into this group at this point in the season, so we’re constantly looking for those spots where fatigue is a factor.

Given the recent performances for Castillo, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Castillo has a 3.26/3.98/3.65 pitcher slash in his 77.1 innings at the big league level. He’s allowed three runs in his last three starts and has 24 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. I don’t see anything to be worried about. We’re not seeing an increase in fly balls, a drop in command, or a drop in control. He looks fit as a fiddle right now, so he’s definitely a guy worthy of consideration.

Gerrit Cole seems to have pushed through a bit of a dead arm period for him. He has a 3.99 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. He’s worked 167 innings this year after being limited to 124 innings last year. His K rate is up and his walk rate is down, which are both good developments, but his command profile has taken a significant hit this season. Cole had a 6.8 percent HR/FB% last season and had never had one higher than 9.4 percent before this season’s 16.3 percent. Prior to throwing seven shutout against the Reds last time out, Cole had allowed 15 runs over his previous four starts, including six home runs. The strikeout numbers were still there, though, so he seems healthy to me. It was just a matter of running into some command problems. With a guy that was limited last season after throwing 200 innings in 2015, Cole will want to finish as strong as possible. That means he won’t throw away any of these starts at the back end of the season.

I’m looking for a low-scoring game here. PNC Park has been playing smaller of late, but the weather is getting much cooler in the Rust Belt. Cole’s SLG% against is 42 points lower at home than it is on the road and he’s allowed just 10 of his 27 HR at PNC Park. He’s shaved 88 points off of his SLG% against in the second half, so he’s getting better in that regard.

Give me the under tonight.

Los Angeles at Texas (-110); Total: 10.5

You have to wonder if the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim get a little bit of a shot in the arm today in Texas. The Angels were one of the more active teams at the waiver deal by grabbing Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. You have to give this team and this front office a lot of credit. For a while, this team has basically been Mike Trout and a collection of average or below average players. Andrelton Simmons’s offensive breakout has turned him into a superstar with his plus-plus defense. Beyond that, this was a team that needed help. The fact that the Angels are in the Wild Card race is surprising to me, but here they are and they got markedly better yesterday.

Now, they’ll face a hated rival in the Texas Rangers. Texas opened a -135 favorite at Bookmaker, a -115 favorite at Pinnacle, and the preferred side remains the Angels, who are road chalk at some books. Tyler Skaggs is up against Cole Hamels in this matchup.

I really like this spot for the Angels. Confidence is high in that clubhouse right now. They endured a Mike Trout DL stint to stay afloat and are now right in the thick of the postseason chase. They’ve added at the waiver deadline with what could end up being a significant financial commitment if Justin Upton decides not to opt out. I’m not a huge Mike Scioscia fan because I’m not an old school guy, but Scioscia tends to have the respect of his players, so things are going well in that regard. I also like Skaggs. The southpaw has made 10 starts at the MLB level this season with a 4.25/4.17/4.24 pitcher slash. He’s coming back from Tommy John, which is no easy task and he’s never really been healthy for prolonged periods of time throughout his career. I am buying his upside. I’m a bit concerned about the lack of strikeouts in his recent starts, but I think the command profile is decent and he’s done a pretty good job of limiting walks.

The Rangers rank 19th in wOBA against LHP with a .313 mark and have an 89 wRC+ with a very friendly park factor at home, so their numbers are not great in this split.

Cole Hamels has a 3.78 ERA with a 4.68 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP on the season. The Angels got much, much better against lefties yesterday. We’ll see if Brandon Phillips is able to make it, but Justin Upton has a .477 wOBA in 117 PA against southpaws this season. This is an Angels team that was dead last in wOBA against lefties at .285. Phillips hasn’t shown much power against lefties, but he puts a lot of balls in play and has a .303 batting average in that split.

I’m not a big believer in the new Cole Hamels, who can’t strike anybody out. Hamels has just 67 strikeouts in 109.2 innings of work. He’s been very fortunate with a .240 BABIP against. That has started to turn a little bit in recent outings with nine hits allowed in 4.1 against Oakland and eight hits allowed in six against the Tigers. There’s very little to like about this BABIP-dependent profile.

I’ll take the Angels tonight. This is a rejuvenated team and the Rangers return home with a lot of other things taking away their focus.

Washington at Milwaukee (-140); Total: 9

A pretty significant line movement is the story in the Washington vs. Milwaukee game, as Jimmy Nelson and the host Brewers have been pumped up about 30 cents in the market from the Bookmaker open. Pinnacle opened closer to where the number currently is. The market really does not like Tanner Roark. Roark is my boy, but I’ve been wrong about him this season, to say the least.

It isn’t entirely my fault, though. Roark owns a 65.6 percent LOB%, which is among the lowest LOB% marks for qualified pitchers. He has a 4.63 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP as a result. All of his other peripherals fall into the average range, but his LOB% does not and he hasn’t been able to get out of enough jams to see some positive regression in that metric. Quietly, though, Roark hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last five starts and that’s enough to give the Nationals and their strong offense a chance. In fact, Roark has only allowed more than three runs once since June 25. He’s actually 5-3 in that span, though win-loss record means nothing. It’s just a sign that his team has been a decent bet in his starts as the Nats are 6-3 in those nine starts. He has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.06 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP over his last nine starts and one relief appearance. I don’t think people realize how he has improved, even with a LOB% still below 69 percent in that span.

Jimmy Nelson shows some signs of positive regression, hence the line move. He has a 3.75 ERA with a 3.11 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP. Nelson is having a career year from a strikeout standpoint with 181 in 163.1 innings of work. He’s also induced a few more ground balls this season. There’s a lot to like about this profile, especially because he’s cut his walk rate by 4.4 percent this season. He’s allowed 10 runs over his last 18 innings of work and that comes on the heels of allowing 10 runs in 3.2 innings to Cincinnati on August 11. It’s possible that he may be starting to wear down a little bit, though the strikeout numbers are still there. The command is waning a bit.

I think I’m looking to take a shot with the road team here. Roark is an undervalued commodity right now as far as I’m concerned and the Nationals rank third in baseball in wOBA against RHP, so this is a tough matchup for any right-hander.

Kansas City (-115) at Minnesota; Total: 9

A huge series kicks off in the Twin Cities with a pitching matchup that makes you wonder how these two teams are in contention for a playoff spot. Jason Hammel will go for the Royals and Dillon Gee will go for the Twins. Hammel has been the sharp side in this one with a 4.76 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, and a 5.00 xFIP on the year in 149.1 innings of work.

Nobody seems interested to back Dillon Gee, who has a 3.53 ERA in three starts and seven relief outings, but he also has a 4.95 FIP and a 4.66 xFIP. He has allowed seven home runs in just 35.2 innings of work. Gee made one spot start for Texas back on June 6 and has made back-to-back starts for the Twins, with five runs allowed on nine hits in 10 innings of work. He does have a 9/1 K/BB ratio, so that’s solid.

This one of those matchups I don’t like to wager on. I’m basically betting on which guy will suck less and a lot of that ends up being BABIP-dependent. I understand the move, given that Hammel is a bit more proven and we can project his performance with a little more confidence than Gee, but I’m not interested.

Arizona (-110) at Colorado; Total: 12

Taijuan Walker has taken on a little bit of money for this one, as the Diamondbacks visit Coors Field. Kyle Freeland will be on the other side for Colorado, hence the move, since he is a guy that the advanced metrics do not think highly of at all. Walker does show some modest signs of regression with a 3.55 ERA, a 4.14 FIP, and a 4.44 xFIP, so I’m a little bit surprised to see the market taking a position on him at Coors Field.

Walker is having a fine season, but he has allowed 10 of his 15 home runs over his last 50.1 innings of work. He has a 3.93 ERA with a 5.12 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP in that span. His 76.9 percent LOB% has spared him further damage. He has a higher batting average against and a higher OBP against on the road, but has a 3.03 ERA compared to a 4.11 ERA at home, with a SLG% difference of 24 points. It’s simply a LOB% thing and a BABIP thing. His road BABIP is more normal than his home BABIP, so I’d actually be looking for some home regression at some point. I’m not thrilled with the idea of backing Walker here.

Kyle Freeland has a 3.81 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP on the season, so I can see why the markets aren’t buying his stock. He’s an extreme ground ball guy with a knack for inducing weak ground ball contact. That’s why he’s been able to carry a .291 BABIP against and a 77.6 percent LOB%. He’s mixed in a few more strikeouts as the season has gone along, but his BABIP has steadily rose. Still, he keeps his team in games and that’s all you can ask for at Coors Field.

The Diamondbacks are fourth in wOBA against righties, but 22nd in wOBA against lefties. I think there’s a smoke and mirrors element about this offense and you can see that in the season-long splits with RISP, where the Diamondbacks still have a .311 BABIP. They were leading the league for a while, but have regressed over the last couple of months.

I know Arizona is and has been the better team this season, but there are some factors that have me leaning towards the Rockies. Not the least of which is that the Diamondbacks just swept the Dodgers. They’re up 3.5 on the Rockies in the NL Wild Card. There’s a little bit of a “fat and happy” sense with this team coming into this series I believe. The Rockies are only 2.5 up on the Brewers, so desperation is setting in a little bit. I think their backs are far closer to the wall than the Diamondbacks, so I’m looking to buy the Rockies tonight and in this series.

Oakland at Seattle (-115); Total: 9.5

I’m taking the A’s tonight. I was a bit surprised to see that American League teams were interested in Mike Leake and the money remaining on that contract. Leake, who has never pitched in the AL, has a 4.21 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP this season. He’s very reliant on BABIP-luck and has carried some good LOB% in his career at times. Over the last two seasons, he hasn’t. Health has been a factor, as Leake had a battle with shingles last year that zapped some of his strength.

To me, this move looks a lot like the Tigers signing Jordan Zimmermann. It’s a profile that can work in the NL, where the pitcher hits and there are more elements of small ball and things of that sort. I don’t think it will translate to the American League as well. Leake has a 15.8 percent K%. If we sort qualified AL pitchers by lowest K%, we see Andrew Cashner, who is luckboxing his way to a 3.30 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 5.21 xFIP. Martin Perez has a 14.2 percent K% and a 4.89 ERA. Miguel Gonzalez has a 4.31/4.56/5.55 slash with a 14.5 percent K%. Jordan Zmmermann has a 6.08 ERA. Alex Cobb, Michael Fulmer, and Jason Vargas are the only ones with an ERA under 4.00 among the 12 lowest K% pitchers in the AL. I don’t see it as a sustainable profile for the Junior Circuit. I think Leake is in for a rude awakening. Also, for a pitcher that has openly talked about having a hard time maintaining his strength between starts, a trade to the Pacific Northwest this late in the year that uproots his family and puts a strain on his body clock is not a great move in my mind.

I like Sean Manaea a lot. He has struggled, with a 4.55/4.10/4.46 pitcher slash. The A’s are awful. But look at the line on this game. That should tell you what you need to know about how Leake is rated as an AL pitcher.

I’m on the visitors today.

St. Louis (-110) at San Francisco; Total: 8.5

Jack Flaherty will make his Major League debut at AT&T Park on Friday night for the St. Louis Cardinals in the spot previously occupied by Mike Leake. The Giants will counter with Johnny Cueto.

Flaherty had a 2.74 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP in 15 starts at Triple-A. He had a 1.42/2.31/2.94 in 10 starts at Double-A. So, this is a kid that has been making a rapid rise up the ranks and is only 21 years old. On the season, he’s got a 147/35 K/BB ratio and he has allowed 12 home runs, with 10 of those coming in Triple-A. It’s an interesting profile to say the least, as a big right-hander that doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm. He was predominantly a third baseman in high school, but started pitching during his junior year. As a senior, he had a breakout season and that was that. He’s carried some impressive pop up rates in the minor leagues, so he either mixes pitches really well or has some rise to that fastball that makes guys hit the bottom of the ball. It seems like AT&T Park would be a good fit for Flaherty.

One of the most intriguing stories of the rest of the season was supposed to be Johnny Cueto. Cueto has an opt out in his contract, but he’s been limited to 115.2 innings this season and hasn’t pitched well. He has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 4.42 xFIP. HE won’t get $21M per on the open market, so he’s better off riding this thing out. It seemed like Cueto wanted to exercise that option, but forearm troubles and bad pitching haven’t helped his cause. The Giants are also an awful defensive team.

This will be Cueto’s first MLB start since July 14, so that’s usually a stay away or fade spot for me. I have no interest in backing pitchers that are coming off the DL. He made a rehab start on July 31 and they shut him down. He pitched at Triple-A and worked three scoreless on August 22, but then gave up eight runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings in a High-A start on August 27.

I understand the line move and I’ll be looking to back the Cardinals, even with the long trip west.

Rockies host scorching Diamondbacks
By: StatFox.com

The Rockies will be hoping to get back on track with a win over the red-hot Diamondbacks on Friday.

The Diamondbacks are going to be heading into Friday’s game with some ridiculous confidence, as they have now won seven straight games and nine of their past 10. Arizona has swept each of its past two series, and the most recent of those two was against Los Angeles. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball all season, so it was big for the Diamondbacks to feel like they are capable of beating anybody when they are playing their best ball. They’ll now turn around and do their best to keep burying the Rockies in the wild card standings. It once seemed like an absolute lock that Colorado would make the playoffs, but the team is only 2.5 games ahead of Milwaukee for the second spot in the NL. The Rockies need to start winning games again soon. The starters in this crucial Friday night tilt are set to be RHP Taijuan Walker (7-7, 3.55 ERA, 110 K) for Arizona and LHP Kyle Freeland (11-8, 3.81 ERA, 94 K) for Colorado. Both guys have been for their teams this season, but that is of little importance with offenses like these playing in Colorado. This one should still be high scoring, which is why the total is so high here.

The Diamondbacks are scorching hot right now and they’ll send Taijuan Walker to the hill on Friday. Walker was incredible the last time he faced Colorado, which was on Jul. 2. Walker pitched seven innings in that game and allowed only one earned run. He struck out eight batters in that one and will be hoping to turn in a similar effort here. It is, however, much harder to pitch in Colorado than anywhere else. Fortunately for Walker, he did pitch pretty well in his last trip here. That game was on May 7 and the righty gave up just one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. While he didn’t go deep into that game, Arizona would be satisfied with another outing like that one. Offensively, 1B Paul Goldschmidt has a very good chance of coming through with a big day in this one. Goldschmidt is on a tear coming into this game, as he has had two or more hits in four of the past six contests and has also hit four homers with 11 RBI in that span. Goldschmidt also hits lefties very well, so he will be looking forward to facing Freeland.

The Rockies have not been playing their best ball as of late, but they will feel good about their chances of winning this one. Freeland has been their most consistent starter this season and pitched well in his only meeting with Arizona this year. He faced them on Apr. 28 and allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. Freeland has also surprisingly pitched well in Colorado this year, as he has a 3.30 ERA when pitching at home. On offense, 3B Nolan Arenado can really help his team by doing some damage here. Arenado’s average has dropped from .312 to .305 over the past 10 games, but he is far too good of a hitter to enter a sustained slump. Expect him to snap out of it with a good performance in this one.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (+100, 10.5)

The Angels are telling everyone they are going for it after making a big splash at the waiver trade deadline last night, acquiring Justin Upton from the Tigers and Brandon Phillips from the Braves.

The Angels currently sit 1.5 games behind the Twins for the second Wild Card spot in the American League, but now boast one of the league’s most potent lineups with the acquisitions of Upton and Phillips.

The focus returns to the field Friday night as the Angels visit the Rangers, who themselves are clinging to slim playoff hopes, for the opener a three-game series in Texas.

However, for possibly today only, it could create an opportunity for bettors. The Angels will more than likely be short-handed for tonight’s game and must face off against Rangers ace Cole Hamels.

Hamels is coming off a poor start last time out but has been his normal solid self this season, going 9-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. At home, he is 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

Additionally, the Angels struggle against lefties (hence bringing in Upton and Phillips). They rank 27th in runs scored and 29th in average versus southpaws, making that price with Hamels very tempting.

Pick: Rangers+100

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-105, 12)

The Diamondbacks and Rockies begin a crucial series for the National League Wild Card at Coors Field in Denver on Friday night.

The red-hot D-backs have won seven in a row and have extended their lead over the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race to 3.5 games. If the Rockies have hopes of hosting the Diamondbacks for the Wild Card game they must put a dent in that deficit this weekend and don’t look now, but the Brewers are creeping back into the Wild Card picture, sitting just 2.5 games behind Colorado.

For Game 1 of this series, Arizona will send Taijuan Walker to the hill to face off against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland.

The right-handed Walker has been solid in his first season in the desert, going 7-7 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Funny enough, Walker has been better on the road, despite the fact the D-backs have been outstanding at home. Walker is 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts away from Chase Field.

On the other side, being in the midst of a playoff race hasn’t bothered Freeland, despite the fact he is a rookie.

The southpaw is 11-8 this season with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season and despite the thin air at Coors Field, he has been better at home. Freeland is 6-5 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP at home.

Obviously, both these teams have great offenses, but this series will have a playoff atmosphere and 12 runs is too many. Plus, the Under is also 8-3-1 when these teams face off.

Pick: Under 12

Yesterday's Picks: 1-0 (Bumgarner was scratched from start)

Season To Date: 130-120-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox (3-7, 4.53 ERA, $ -154)

Right-hander Doug Fister is on a nice run for the American League East leading Boston Red Sox right now. During his last two outings, he has an ERA of 1.69 in 16 innings of work and struck out 13.

In Fister’s last road start he allowed a lead off home run to Francisco Lindor then was lights out the rest of the day, going nine innings only allowing the one hit.

Fister and the Red Sox take on Sonny Gary and the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium today and are road dogs, available at +151.

Slumping: Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers (5-8, 6.13 ERA, $-217 )

The white flags are officially up in Motown as the Tigers spent yesterday dumping expensive contracts, shipping out Justin Verlander and Justin Upton. Today they turn to Matthew Boyd and that isn’t promising.

Over his last three starts, Boyd is 0-2 (0-3 TW/TW) with a 9.00 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in 14 innings of work. This isn’t a new trend on the season the 26-year-old has an ERA of 6.13.

An interesting trend for bettors, the Over has cashed in seven of Boyd's last nine starts.

Boyd takes the mound today in game one of a double header as the Tigers welcome the American League Central leading Cleveland Indians. The Tigers are currently +201 home dogs as the rebuild begins.

Friday's Top Trends

* Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 home games. -197 today vs. Braves.
* Pirates are 1-9 in Gerrit Cole’s last 10 starts vs. Reds. -120 home chalk today vs. Reds.
* Over is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings in Chicago. Rays/White Sox Total: 9.
* Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 overall. -102 at Colorado.
* Over is 8-1 in Sean Manaea’s last 9 starts overall. Athletics/Mariners Total: 9.5

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Again, thoughts and prayers for everyone in southern Texas and Louisiana. Please donate to the American Red Cross (follow the link for simple donation instructions).

The only precipitation in the baseball forecast for Friday is in Miami where thunderstorms will threaten the Miami area. The roof at Marlins Park will likely be closed today.

There will be a strong wind in five ballparks tonight:

* Indians at Tigers (Total: 8.5 ) - 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing to right field.
* Braves at Cubs (Total: 8 ) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing in from right field.
* Royals at Twins (Total: 9.5) - 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from right field.
* Rays at White Sox (Total: 9) - 10-13 mile per hour wind blowing in from left -center field.
* Cardinals at Giants (Total: 8.5) - 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.

Ump Of The Day

Fieldin Culbreth will be calling balls and strike today at Wrigley field and this is a troubling sign for Mike Foltynewicz and the visiting Atlanta Braves. Culbreth is near the top of our 2017 Umpire Homer Stats table at 17-6 (73.9 percent) for the season.

In his last 14 games behind the dish in Chicago the home team has won 12 and overall the Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven games Culbreth has had the gear on.

The Cubs are massive -197 home chalk this afternoon.