MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Reds @ Cubs
Stephenson is 1-2, 6.00 in his last two starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Reds are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2
Quintana is 2-0, 2.18 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Cubs are 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3
Reds lost eight of their last nine games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Cincy is 5-14 in last 19 road series openers. Cubs won six of last eight games (under 5-2-1). Chicago is 6-1 in last seven home series openers.
Pirates @ Nationals
Cole is 1-3, 5.58 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates are 9-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-14-8
Strasburg is 4-0, 1.06 in his last five starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Washington is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4
Pirates won four of their last five games; under is 13-2 in their last 15 road games. Washington is 7-4 in its last 11 games; under is 11-5-2 in their last 18 games.
Mets @ Phillies
Harvey is 1-3, 13.19 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Mets are 2-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9
Lively is 0-1, 4.80 in his last three starts; under is 3-0-2 in his last five. Phillies are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-9-4
Mets won their last three games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. NY is 2-5 in last seven road series openers. Phillies are 5-2 in last seven home games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Phils are 7-6 in last 13 home series openers.
Braves @ Marlins
Gohara is 1-3, 5.02 in four starts (over 2-2). Braves won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1
Straily is 1-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Marlins are 9-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-4
Braves lost five of last six games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Marlins lost three of last five games (under 4-1).
Dodgers @ Rockies
Ryu is 0-2, 4.24 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. dodgers are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-4
Bettis is 1-3, 7.97 in his last five starts (under 7-1). Colorado is 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1
Dodgers won their last four games, last three of which went over. LA is 13-5 in last 18 road series openers. Colorado won three of last four games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Rockies are 15-5 in last 20 home series openers.
Brewers @ Cardinals
Anderson is 3-1, 1.99 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Milwaukee is 7-5 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 15-7-2
Gant allowed one run in three IP (48 PT) in his first ’17 start, which was on the road. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Milwaukee won five of last six road games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Brewers are 6-10 in last 16 road series openers. St Louis lost five of last six games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Cardinals are 8-5 in last 13 home series openers- they got eliminated yesterday, while Milwaukee is two games behind Colorado for Wild Card spot.
Padres @ Giants
Lyles is 1-2, 7.92 in four starts for San Diego (over 3-1). Padres split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Stratton is 1-1, 5.02 in his last four starts (under 5-4). Giants are 4-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1
Padres lost their last four games, all of which went over. San Diego is 4-7 in last 11 road series openers. Giants lost four of last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven home games. SF is 5-14 in last 19 home series openers.
American League
Blue Jays @ New York
Biagini is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Toronto is 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1
Garcia is 0-3, 6.03 in eight starts for New York (under 6-2). NY is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-2
Toronto won three of its last four games; their last four road games went over. Blue Jays are 7-12 in last 19 road series openers. New York won 11 of last 15 games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 home games. NY won its last four home series openers.
Orioles @ Rays
Miley is 0-4, 9.92 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Baltimore is 8-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-17-2
Odorizzi is 4-1, 3.62 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Tampa Bay is 4-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4
Orioles lost four of last five games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Baltimore is 9-16 in road series openers. Tampa Bay lost three of last four games; under is 19-9-1 in their last 29 home games. Rays are 3-7 in last ten home series openers.
White Sox @ Indians
Pelfrey is 0-5, 8.76 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. White Sox are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-2
Bauer is 6-1, 3.10 in his last eight starts; under is 9-1-1 in his last 11. Cleveland is 9-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-8-4
White Sox won six of last eight games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Chicago is 3-7 in last ten road series openers. Cleveland is 31-3 in its last 34 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games. Indians are 10-1 in last 11 home series openers.
Astros @ Red Sox
Morton is 3-1, 2.74 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Houston is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-2
Fister is 0-1, 11.12 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Boston is 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9
Houston won 12 of its last 14 games; over is 5-0 in their last five. Boston won 10 of last 14 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
A’s @ Rangers
Alcantara is 1-0, 0.00 (8.2 IP) in two starts this season (over 1-1). A’s won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0
Perez is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Texas is 8-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-14-4
A’s won 9 of last 11 games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 road games. Texas lost its last seven games; under is 8-4 in their last 12.
Tigers @ Twins
Boyd is 1-0, 1.15 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-6
Berrios is 1-2, 4.50 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Minnesota is 8-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-3
Twins won five of last seven games but lost last two; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Minnesota is 6-3 in last nine road series openers. Detroit lost nine of its last ten games; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14. Tigers are 0-8 in last eight home series openers.
Mariners @ Angels
Gonzales is 1-1, 7.01 in six starts this season (over 5-1). Seattle is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-4
Skaggs is 1-4, 5.98 in his last eight starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Angels are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-3
Seattle is 3-8 in its last 11 games; their last eight series openers stayed under. Mariners are 11-5 in last 16 road series openers. Angels lost nine of last 11 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight. Halos are 6-15 in last 21 home series openers.
Interleague
Diamondbacks @ Royals
Greinke is 3-0, 3.49 in his last six starts; under is 6-1-2 in his last nine starts. Arizona is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-7-5
Kennedy is 0-4, 8.72 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 5-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-18-4
Arizona won five of last seven games (over 5-2). Snakes won four of last five road series openers. Royals are 5-3 in last eight home games; under is 4-1 in last five. KC is 4-7 in last 11 home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Cin-Chi: Stephenson 6-4; Quintana 9-4
Pitt-Wsh: Cole 17-15; Strasburg 21-6
NY-Phil: Harvey 6-11; Lively 13-14
Atl-Mia: Gohara 1-3; Straily 15-17
LA-Colo: Ryu 11-12; Bettis 3-5
Mil-StL: Anderson 13-11; Gant 0-1
SD-SF: Lyles 2-2; Stratton 5-4
American League
Tor-NY: Biagini 5-12; Garcia 4-4
Balt-TB: Miley 15-16; Odorizzi 12-15
Chi-Clev: Pelfrey 6-14; Bauer 17-13
Hst-Bos: Morton 15-9; Fister 8-6
A’s-Tex: Alcantara 2-0; Perez 15-16
Det-Min: Boyd 9-15; Berrios 14-11
Sea-LA: Gonzales 3-3; Skaggs 7-8
Interleague
Az-KC: Greinke 22-9; Kennedy 13-16
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Cin-Chi: Stephenson 4-10; Quintana 4-13
Pitt-Wsh: Cole 11-32; Strasburg 4-27
NY-Phil: Harvey 10-17; Lively 6-27
Atl-Mia: Gohara 2-4; Straily 7-32
LA-Colo: Ryu 9-23; Bettis 3-8
Mil-StL: Anderson 7-24; Gant 0-1
SD-SF: Lyles 1-4; Stratton 1-8
American League
Tor-NY: Biagini 6-17; Garcia 6-8
Balt-TB: Miley 12-31; Odorizzi 8-27
Chi-Clev: Pelfrey 7-20; Bauer 4-30
Hst-Bos: Morton 3-24; Fister 9-14
A’s-Tex: Alcantara 0-2; Perez 12-31
Det-Min: Boyd 9-24; Berrios 6-25
Sea-LA: Gonzales 1-6; Skaggs 7-15
Interleague
Az-KC: Greinke 4-31; Kennedy 9-29
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 156-131 AL, favorites +$116
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 146-133-12
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
New York at Philadelphia (-140); Total: 9.5
How far has Matt Harvey fallen that he is now a +130 dog against the Phillies and Ben Lively? This line would be in the -180 range with Aaron Nola on the bump. That is crazy to think about. The Mets have also lost some players to trades and injuries, so this is an extremely watered-down version of the team.
Harvey is one of the few players that I can guarantee will be motivated for this start. It has been a frustrating, and let’s be honest, sad, year for Harvey. He has a 6.60 ERA, a 6.33 FIP, and a 5.29 xFIP. He wasn’t even fully healthy this season, so there are really no redeeming qualities to this season. He just looked sullen on the mound and after his starts. Getting some positive vibes rolling into the offseason would give him a small measure of solace. The concern is that I don’t know if that is even possible. Since returning on September 2, he has allowed 24 runs on 36 hits in 18.1 innings of work with a 10/9 K/BB ratio. It has been as ugly as it sounds.
Up until Ben Lively’s last blow-up, he had been throwing the ball fairly well. In seven starts since coming back on August 20, Lively has held the opposition to three runs or less in five of those outings. He’s also allowed six runs twice. He has 34 strikeouts, though, which is a good development given his year-to-date strikeout rate. I’m not really sure what to expect in this spot from him or from the Mets. Terry Collins is out the door and changes are coming. Changes need to come organization-wide, from the training staff, to the front office, to everything in between.
I think that has a negative carryover into this weekend. The Mets may rally for Collins on Sunday, but I don’t think I could back them on Friday or Saturday. On the other hand, backing the Phillies at -140 without Nola pitching seems ill-advised.
My overall suggestion for this weekend is to look to pair the money line favorites that you like together in some parlays to limit exposure. That was a suggestion yesterday with the Indians and Royals, but the Royals didn’t hold up their end. You can find a partner with the Phillies today and have a decent play.
Los Angeles (-115) at Colorado; Total: 12
I don’t really know how this game will go, but I can tell you the way that I want it to go. I want the Rockies to win and the Brewers to lose. Unfortunately for Brewers fans, it looks like they just won’t have enough, as one Rockies win over the next three days guarantees at least a Game #163 and the Brewers would have to sweep the Cardinals on the road. Sure, it could happen, though the odds are small. The Brewers were my favorite season win total and I love what they’re doing, so this isn’t some vendetta. This is just about a great story.
Again, no offense to Brewers fans, but with the likelihood that they fall short anyway, wouldn’t it be cool to see Chad Bettis pitch his team into the postseason? Bettis missed time at the start of the year while undergoing treatment for testicular cancer. Bettis hasn’t been very effective since throwing seven shutout innings in his first start. He has a 5.72 ERA with a 5.31 FIP and a 4.76 xFIP. Coors Field is unforgiving, especially for somebody without a lot of swing and miss in the arsenal.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his final regular season start and then we’ll see how Dave Roberts wants to use him in the postseason. Ryu has pitched well over his 124.2 innings of work. He has a 3.47 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP. Ryu won’t pitch very deep into this game, effectively making it a bullpen day for the Dodgers. He worked 2.1 innings last time out and 4.2 innings the time before that. Some forearm discomfort has limited him here in the month of September. That makes the Dodgers a pretty high-variance team in this spot since we don’t know who will pitch after Ryu.
The market has not really tipped its hand yet. I don’t know which way to go here. The heart angle says Bettis, but he hasn’t pitched well and the Dodgers do have some incentive to put up some numbers this weekend and get some good feelings rolling into Friday’s Game 1, quite possibly against these same Rockies.
There probably isn’t an edge one way or another, but the sappy side of me wouldn’t mind seeing Bettis throw a gem to push his team into the postseason.
Arizona (-145) at Kansas City; Total: 9
This is a tough handicap. On one hand, I assume the Royals are invested in getting to .500 and now have to sweep the Diamondbacks to do it. On the other hand, they are facing an enormous starting pitcher deficit today with Zack Greinke against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy, whose wife just had a kid last week, is not a good pitcher. The Diamondbacks hammer right-handed pitching and will add another hitter to the lineup with the AL rules. Greinke is vastly superior to Kennedy and he’s having a really good season.
One thing to keep in mind here is that, like Ervin Santana on Thursday, managers aren’t going to push their horses in these last starts. They’ll get some work in and then hit the showers. I would be shocked to see Greinke get pushed too much since he’s in line to start at Chase Field on Wednesday. We’ll probably see a five-and-fly with 65 or 75 pitches and then the bullpen will take over. Definitely factor that into your handicapping with the teams that are in.
This weekend marks the end of an era for the Royals. Two World Series trips. One division title. One flag that will fly forever. The writing has been on the wall since everybody had a career year together in 2015, as the Royals fell to 81-81 last year and will likely finish below .500 this year. I’m curious to see how this weekend is received by the fans and the players. While I have been looking at it from a positive angle, striving for .500, it’s actually kind of sad for the players. The impending free agents have been fixtures in that clubhouse for a long time. They’ll have to go place elsewhere next season, which will leave behind friendships and relationships, not just for the players, but for their wives, girlfriends, and kids. None of them are hitting free agency at a good time either. And then the players that are sticking around have the prospect of a rebuild on the horizon.
Maybe I’ve taken the wrong approach. Maybe Arizona is the -140 to pair with Philadelphia.
As you can see, there are a lot of other considerations in this final weekend that you normally don’t see when handicapping baseball. It’s a weekend for observing and worrying about football. I’ll have two more articles for you, but I won’t recommend anything as a strong play this weekend.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (+120, 8.5)
It is a tough time to handicap baseball with most teams either locked into their playoff positions, or are already making their offseason plans. However, one team which still has an outside chance at the playoffs is the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ll look to keep those hopes alive when they visit the recently eliminated Cardinals in the final series of the season.
Milwaukee is the lone team who can catch the Rockies for the second Wild Card spot in the National league, sitting two games back with three games to go and they send their best pitcher to the mound on Friday to keep those postseason dreams alive.
Chase Anderson will take the mound for the Brewers in the series opener and the veteran right-hander has had a career year in Milwaukee. Anderson set career marks in wins with 11, ERA at a 2.81 and WHIP at 1.12.
Anderson has also seemed to get stronger in the latter part of the season, going 3-1 in his last four starts with a 1.59 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP while striking out 23 batters and walking just three.
The Cardinals counter with John Gant, who will be making just his second start for a Cardinals team that had the life sucked out of it last night in a heartbreaking loss to the Cubs, which ended their season.
This will just be a tough game for the Cardinals to show up to against a hot pitcher.
Pick: Brewers -130
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 9.5)
You don’t think we would pass up one more opportunity to rag on Matt Harvey this season, did you? Well, we are, as the Mets close out their disappointing season with a three-game set in Philadelphia this weekend.
New York opened this season as a 12/1 contender to win the World Series and now here they sit at 69-90 just five games better than the Phillies this season and it could get worse as the Mets will send Harvey to the hill one more time this season.
It has been a season to forget for the former Mets ace, riddled with injuries and inconsistencies. Harvey is 5-6 this season with a 6.60 ERA and has only struck out 64 batters, while walking 44.
His last five starts have been pretty brutal, where he is 1-3 with a whopping 12.26 ERA and a WHIP of 2.40. (Puke.)
The Phillies counter with Ben Lively, who hasn’t been terrible, but is nothing to write home about either. The rookie right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP and the MLB season seems to be wearing on him a bit. Lively is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts.
Expect the bats to take over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 9.5.
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 159-145-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs
Quintana, the Cubs big trade deadline acquisition, is ramping up nicely in anticipation of the first postseason action oh his career.
The Cubs have won the southpaws last five starts, thanks to the fact he has pitched to a 2.14 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP and includes a three-hit, 10 strikeout, complete-game shutout of the Brewers in his last start.
Chicago is currently a -171 home favorite for tonight’s game against the Reds.
Slumping: Wade Miley, Baltimore Orioles
Miley’s first full season in Baltimore has been a rough one and he has the look of a man who just wants to get this season with and move on to the next.
The Orioles’ southpaw has gone 8-14 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP, but has been even worse in his last four starts, going 0-4 with a 9.92 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP.
Miley and the Orioles are currently +131 road dogs tonight against the Rays.
Friday's Top Trends
* Blue Jays are 0-7 in Joe Biagini's last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays +195 @ Yankees.
* Rangers are 0-7 in their last seven games overall. -12 vs A's.
* Over is 11-1-2 in the last 14 meetings between the Tigers and Twins. O/U: 8.5.
* Under is 8-0 in Chad Bettis' last eight home starts. O/U: 11.5 vs Dodgers.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Friday will mostly be a beautiful fall day and night for baseball all around the Big League, except for maybe in Cleveland where there will be a chance of rain and a pitchers wind for the Indians game against the White Sox. The total is currently 8.5.
Ump Of The Day
Rob Drake: Drake has turned into a abit of an Over ump in the later half of the season, with it going 7-2 in his last nine games behind home plate. Drake sees an average of 8.72 total runs per game this season and has a strike percentage of 63.47. Drake will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Texas, where the Rangers will host the A's, with a total currently sitting at 10.5.