MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, September 8th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Cubs
Nelson is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts; under is 11-4 in his last 15. He is 0-0, 6.35 in two starts vs Chicago this season. Brewers are 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14-2

Lackey is 1-1, 4.76 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 1-1, 4.50 vs Milwaukee this year. Cubs are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-2

Milwaukee lost its last three games; under is 12-2-3 in their last 17 road games. Brewers are 0-5 in last five road series openers. Cubs are 8-4 in last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Chicago is 5-1 in last six home series openers.

Phillies @ Nationals
Thompson is 1-1, 5.57 in four starts this season (over 2-2). Phillies split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Scherzer is 2-0, 1.91 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-0, 3.55 in two starts vs Philly this year. Washington is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-3

Phillies lost four of last five games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Washington won five of its last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Reds @ Mets
Former St John’s hooper Garrett is making his first start since May 20; he is 0-4, 12.90 in his last six starts. Over is 6-1 in his last seven. Reds are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-1

Lugo is 0-2, 6.93 in his last five starts (over 9-3-1). Mets are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3

Reds won five of last eight games; under is 3-1-2 in their last six games. Mets won four of last five games; over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games.

Marlins @ Braves
Urena is 3-1, 3.62 in his last six starts; under is 8-4-3 in his last 15 starts. He is 1-1, 2.50 in three starts vs Atlanta this season. Miami is 9-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-4

Foltynewicz is 0-5, 9.00 in his last five starts; over is 7-3 in his last 10 starts. He is 2-0, 1.96 in three starts vs Miami this season. Atlanta is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-6

Marlins lost 10 of last 11 games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine. Atlanta lost five of last eight games. Over is 5-1 in their last six games.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Williams is 1-1, 0.90 in his last three starts; under is 12-2 in his last 14 starts. He is 0-1, 10.38 in two starts vs St Louis this season. Pirates are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-4

Weaver is 4-0, 2.08 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Cardinals split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1

Pirates lost their last three games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Bucs are 1-5 in last six road series openers. Cardinals won five of last seven games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. St Louis is 8-5 in last 13 home series openers.

Padres @ Diamondbacks
Lyles allowed two runs in 4.1 IP (92 PT) in his first San Diego start. San Diego’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Corbin is 5-0, 0.76 in his last five starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. He is 2-1, 3.86 vs San Diego this year. Arizona is 9-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-12-4

San Diego won six of last nine games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Padres are 7-14 in road series openers. Arizona won its last 13 games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four home games. Diamondbacks are 16-6 in home series openers.

Rockies @ Dodgers
Marquez is 2-2, 5.72 in his last five starts; under is 8-0-1 in his last nine. Rockies are 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-4

Darvish is 0-2, 7.07 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

Colorado lost seven of their last 11 games; under is 8-4 in their last 11 games. Dodgers lost 12 of their last 13 games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.

American League

Tigers @ Blue Jays
Farmer is 1-2, 14.18 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Detroit won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Stroman is 1-1, 4.23 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Toronto is 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11-1

Tigers lost six of last seven games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Detroit is 11-11 in road series openers. Toronto lost five of last six home games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Jays are 4-9 in last 13 home series openers.

Rays @ Red Sox
Archer is 1-1, 3.04 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Boston this year. Tampa Bay is 7-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-7-5

Pomeramz is 4-1, 3.00 in his last six starts; over is 10-6-1 in his last 17 starts. He is 1-1, 6.08 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this season. Boston is 10-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11

Tampa Bay is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven road tilts. Rays are 15-8 in road series openers. Red Sox are 6-4 in their last ten games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Boston is 15-9 in home series openers.

Orioles @ Indians
Miley is 2-1, 2.65 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Baltimore is 8-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14-2

Carrasco is 3-1, 2.14 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Cleveland is 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-2

Orioles are 10-4 in their last 14 games; their last three games went over. Baltimore won its last four road series openers. Cleveland won its last 15 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Indians are won their last seven home series openers.

New York @ Texas
Tanaka is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. New York is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-2

Perez is 6-0, 3.15 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Texas is 8-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-12-3

New York won four of last five games; their last six road games went over. NY is 12-11 in road series openers. Texas won six of last nine games; over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. Rangers are 13-9 in home series openers.

Twins @ Royals
Santana is 2-0, 4.10 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-2 in his last 11 starts. He is 1-1, 5.68 in three starts vs KC this season. Twins are 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-6

Kennedy is 0-4, 9.56 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-16-4

Twins lost four of last seven games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Royals won four of last seven games (over 5-2).

Astros @ A’s
McHugh is 3-0, 1.08 in his last three starts (under 7-1). Houston is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1

Cotton is 2-0, 4.32 in his last three starts; under is 6-4-1 in his home starts. Oakland is 4-7 in those home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-1

Astros won their last seven games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Houston is 16-6 in road series openers. Oakland lost eight of its last nine games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. A’s are 5-11 in last 16 home series openers.

Angels @ Mariners
Nolasco is 1-0, 5.75 in his last six starts (over 4-1-1). He is 1-0, 4.07 in four starts vs Seattle this season. Angels are 5-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-15-4

Leake allowed two runs in seven IP (105 PT) in his first start for Seattle. Over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts. Mariners’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Angels won six of last nine games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Halos are 3-6 in last nine road series openers. Seattle lost its last three games (under 3-0). Mariners are 2-8 in last ten home series openers.

Interleague

Giants @ White Sox
Moore is 1-1, 3.20 in his last four starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Giants are 3-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-18-5

Giolito is 2-1, 2.25 in three starts this season (under 3-0). All three of his starts have been at home (Sox 2-1)— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Giants are 3-10 in their last 13 games; under is 11-6 in their last 17 games. SF is 3-9 in last 12 road series openers. White Sox lost eight of last ten games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games. Chicago is 10-13 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

Mil-Chi: Nelson 16-12 (4-0 last 4); Lackey 16-9
Phil-Wsh: Thompson 2-2; Scherzer 18-8
Cin-NY: Garrett 4-8 (0-6 last 6); Lugo 7-6
Mia-Atl: Urena 15-8; Foltynewicz 13-13 (0-5 last 5)
Pitt-StL: Willliams 10-12; Weaver 4-1
SD-Az: Lyles 1-0; Corbin 15-13
Colo-LA: Marquez 15-9; Darvish 3-2

American League
Det-Tor: Farmer 3-3; Stroman 17-11
TB-Bos: Archer 15-14; Pomeranz 18-9
Balt-Clev: Miley 15-13; Carrasco 19-8
NY-Tex: Tanaka 14-12 (4-0 last 4); Perez 13-14 (6-0 last 6)
Minn-KC: Santana 16-12; Kennedy 13-13
Hst-A’s: McHugh 4-4; Cotton 8-13
LA-Sea: Nolasco 10-18; Leake 1-0

Interleague
SF-Chi: Moore 8-19; Giolito 2-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Chi: Nelson 5-28; Lackey 13-25
Phil-Wsh: Thompson 1-4; Scherzer 5-26
Cin-NY: Garrett 6-12; Lugo 4-13
Mia-Atl: Urena 4-23; Foltynewicz 4-26
Pitt-StL: Willliams 7-22; Weaver 1-5
SD-Az: Lyles 1-1; Corbin 12-28
Colo-LA: Marquez 6-24; Darvish 3-5

American League
Det-Tor: Farmer 2-6; Stroman 5-28
TB-Bos: Archer 9-29; Pomeranz 8-27
Balt-Clev: Miley 10-28; Carrasco 5-27
NY-Tex: Tanaka 11-26; Perez 12-27
Minn-KC: Santana 5-28; Kennedy 7-26
Hst-A’s: McHugh 2-8; Cotton 8-21
LA-Sea: Nolasco 12-28; Leake 1-1

Interleague
SF-Chi: Moore 9-27; Giolito 0-3

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 146-127 AL, favorites +$438

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 141-125-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Tampa Bay at Boston (-130); Total: 8.5

Chris Archer and Drew Pomeranz are the listed starters for tonight’s matchup at Fenway Park. Archer allowed two home runs to two batters and then exited the game with forearm discomfort in his last start. All tests came back negative and Archer was said to be feeling better, but color me skeptical. Archer’s workload is among the highest in baseball over the last few seasons and forearms ain’t nuthin’ to eff with.

On the year, Archer has had a strong set of numbers with a 3.76 ERA, a 3.32 FIP, and a 3.30 xFIP. He has 225 strikeouts in 179.1 innings of work. He has allowed six home runs over his last four starts, which is a little bit concerning, but his home run rate has been elevated most of the year. Archer’s velo was down in that first inning and he looked pretty concerned when he left the mound. He says he’s fine and the training staff has given him the green light, so we’ll have to see what happens.

My thought on this game is to take a position on Boston. You can probably get the chance to buy out live if you want or let it ride. Archer may not be able to work deep in the game if the same problems flare up. If he does, Drew Pomeranz is pretty good in his own right.

Cincinnati at New York (-110); Total: 9

How bad are things for the Mets right now? They won yesterday and Matt Harvey had a decent stat line, but they’re a virtual money line pick ‘em today against Amir Garrett. Garrett posted a 7.41/7.28/5.17 pitcher slash in his 58.1 innings of work before getting sent down to the minors, where he had a 5.72/4.03/3.94 pitcher slash. It hasn’t been a great season for Garrett in terms of stranding runners and that has been a problem throughout his MiLB career. He’s fairly new to pitching, so he lacks some of that pitchability to get out of situations. And he gets into a lot of situations because of his control.

Seth Lugo was a fine spot starter for the Mets last season, but it has been a little bit of a different story this year. Lugo has a 5.00 ERA with a 4.12 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP. Lugo has decent peripherals across the board, except for a .329 BABIP against, which has created a lot of traffic on the bases. Mix in a 67.7 percent LOB% and that’s how you get a 5.00 ERA. There is some room for positive regression in those numbers for Lugo, though, so I prefer the Mets side today. With so many trades and injuries, the Mets aren’t a good team, but they have some players motivated to make some impressions for future playing time or new contracts. That’s enough to keep them invested. This line looks at least 15 cents off to me, so I think there’s good value on New York.

Miami (-110) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5

I’m not a cold, heartless prick. I promise. But, when I look at tonight’s game, there’s only one way I can go and that’s the Atlanta side. The Marlins, as I talked about yesterday, have much greater concerns than baseball. A hurricane is bearing down on their families and friends. As we know, a lot of Latin players make up the league’s rosters and those players have a lot of concerns as well since Caribbean islands were hit by Hurricane Irma.

There’s just no way to back the Marlins as far as I’m concerned. They gave a game effort yesterday, but that hurricane is drawing closer by the day. Jose Urena is also a bad pitcher and has clear signs of significant statistical regression. I don’t love Mike Foltynewicz by any means, but he’s good enough compared to Urena to take the Braves today. If the Marlins were in a playoff chase, but they could keep their focus between the lines. They’re not.

Milwaukee at Chicago (-125)

No posted total for this night game at Wrigley Field, where Jimmy Nelson and John Lackey will square off. Nelson’s career year could not have come at a better time for the Brewers, who have a ton to play for this weekend. They’ll take the field five back of the Cubs and three back in the Wild Card. This isn’t a last stand series, per se, but losing this series would be troubling, at least for the Central. The Wild Card is still a possibility and the Dodgers could very well take the next three from the Rockies, but Milwaukee needs to find a way to bank some wins.

Nelson has a 3.59 ERA with a 3.05 FIP and a 3.14 xFIP. His K% is up 9.8 percent this season and his walk rate is down 4.2 percent. There is still a fair amount of hard contact in his profile, but it is amazing what more strikeouts and less walks can do to a set of stats. Nelson gave up nine earned runs, 10 total, on 11 hits in 3.2 innings on August 11 and it sent his ERA up quite a bit, which is hard to do with a sample size like this. Since then, he has only allowed eight earned runs over his last four starts, so it was just one of those things. He’s the right guy to set the tone for the Brewers in this series.

Still, I can’t help but think that this line looks a little bit light. John Lackey has struggled this season with a 4.74 ERA, a 5.31 FIP, and a 4.56 xFIP. He’s given up 32 home runs in just 148 innings of work. From July 5 to August 16, Lackey didn’t give up more than three runs in a start and shaved some points off of his ERA. He had a couple bad outings on August 22 and 27, but worked seven shutout against the Braves last time out. That was the first time he had completed seven innings since June 2. Over his last 10 starts, Lackey has a 3.90/4.36/4.53 pitcher slash. He’s been a bit better than his year-to-date numbers for the last two months.

I want to believe in the Brewers and Nelson in this spot, but Lackey has been throwing the ball better and something about this game swings me in the home team’s direction.

San Francisco at Chicago (-115); Total: 9

How bad are the San Francisco Giants? They’re an underdog to a guy making his fourth MLB start of the season against a team that is 16-36 since the All-Star Break. Sure, with home field advantage factored in, the Giants would still be a favorite on a neutral, so maybe I’m exaggerating a little bit, but this has the feel of a game that nobody will want to touch and it may have value as a result.

The question is whether or not Lucas Giolito can hold up his end of the bargain. I can’t imagine the Giants, who have been out of it since April, are too excited to go play an interleague series a long way from home. Giolito has allowed five runs on 12 hits in 20 innings of work with the White Sox. Home runs remain a problem at the MLB level, as he has now allowed 11 in 41.1 innings of work.

The White Sox aren’t much offensively anymore with trades and other things, but Matt Moore isn’t much of a pitcher either. He has a 5.42 ERA with a 4.62 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP on the year. He hasn’t been an effective pitcher since 2013 and that was a Tommy John surgery and a trade to the NL ago. He’s allowed a ton of hard contact this season and rates very poorly in the Statcast metrics.

The White Sox have to be a look tonight as far as I’m concerned. They have a rare chance to get some wins and that will help morale. It’s a long trip for a San Francisco team that doesn’t want to go play in Chicago. Signs point to the White Sox.

Cubs, Brewers fight for positioning Friday
By: StatFox.com

The Brewers and Cubs continue to fight for position in the NL Central when they meet at Wrigley Field on Friday.

The Brewers are currently trailing the Cubs in the NL Central, but they now have three games in a row against Chicago to try to make up some ground. Milwaukee badly needs to win this series, but Chicago will obviously be playing with plenty of urgency as well. The Cubs are the defending World Series champions and have been disappointing to this point in the year. Fortunately for them, they have gotten themselves going a bit lately. The starters in this Friday night game are set to be RHP Jimmy Nelson (11-6, 3.59 ERA, 192 K) for the Brewers and RHP John Lackey (11-10, 4.74 ERA, 131 K) for the Cubs. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Brewers are 20-10 against the money line when playing a team that has beaten them in two straight games this season. Lackey’s teams are, however, 32-10 against the money line when the righty is pitching at home on a Friday. That might seem rather random, but it’s pretty clear he prefers pitching then.

The Brewers are sending Jimmy Nelson to the hill on Friday and that is exactly the guy they’ll want out there in a big series opener like this one. Nelson has been outstanding all season and he enters this one in good form as well. In his most recent start, Nelson pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Nationals on Sep. 1. He struck out 11 batters in that one and that was his fourth start with at least nine strikeouts in the past 10 games. If he can give the Brewers six or seven solid innings then that would be big. It’s just important that he has his control in this one, as he has walked three batters in two of the past three games. On offense, OF Ryan Braun is a guy to look out for in this one. Braun has had a down year in 2017, but he is 9-for-32 with a double, two homers, and three RBI against Lackey in his career. He has a good idea of what Lackey is going to throw him and it’d be big if he can come through at the plate here. It’s also worth keeping an eye on 1B Eric Thames, who is 5-for-11 with a homer against Lackey and has some serious pop.

The Cubs are coming off of an impressive victory over the Pirates and will now try to stay hot against the Brewers. Lackey is going to take the ball for Chicago in this one and the veteran pitched very well against the Braves on Sep.1. He threw seven innings of shutout ball in that one, striking out five batters and walking none in the process. Lackey had struggled in his previous few trips to the mound, so it was big for him to get it going here. The Cubs need him to pitch well here and he should be able to do just that. He faced this Brewers team on Jul. 30 and allowed only two earned runs in six innings. As for the Cubs offense, they’ll be counting on guys like 1B Anthony Rizzo and 3B Kris Bryant here. Rizzo has been an absolute animal this season, but Bryant’s play has left a lot to be desired. Bryant has done a good job to get his average up lately, but he still has just 59 RBI. It’d be big if he can start driving in more runs soon.

Friday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

L.A. Angels vs Seattle Mariners

Odds: L.A. (+118) vs Seattle (-127); Total 9.5

A huge series between AL West foes begins in Seattle tonight as both the Angels and Mariners are vying to make a final push for a AL Wild Card spot this year. L.A. has a much bigger edge in that regard at the moment as they enter Friday's action a game behind Minnesota for that final spot, while Seattle finds themselves four games back of the Twins after getting swept by the Astros earlier this week. After those poor results, this series means much more to the Mariners who are looking to get it started right with a home win this evening.

Seattle sends out new pitching acquisition Mike Leake to the hill, and Leake pitched well in his debut for his new squad. That game was a 3-2 home win for Seattle over Oakland and Leake gave up both runs on eight hits over seven full innings of work. That stat line was a bit of a departure from the struggles Leake had during his last days with St Louis during July and August, as the Mariners had to be pleased with what they got from him in his debut. But shutting down a basement-dweller like Oakland is a much different task then pitching well against a rival you are competing with for a playoff spot, so it will be interesting to see Leake's work tonight.

L.A. counters with Ricky Nolasco and he's been far from sharp on the whole since August began. Nolasco has never gone more than six full innings in that span (seven starts), and the Angels have been involved in some tight, high-scoring games during that time as well. With the Angels bats finally cooling off the other day in a 3-1 defeat to the aforementioned Oakland A's, L.A. fans better hope that result was an abnormality because the Angels bats had been smoking hot prior to that.

For seven straight games prior to that 3-1 loss, L.A. had scored at least six runs in all of their games, and had 8+ runs in five of those games. The additions of Brandon Phillips and Justin Upton has lengthened their lineup significantly, and the excitement of playing meaningful September baseball for the first time in a few years has brought some of the joy back to the games of Trout, Pujols and company.

There is little question in my mind that the one run they scored on Wednesday was nothing but an anomaly and I expect the Angels bats to light up the scoreboard tonight. Leake may have been decent in his first outing for Seattle, but 4 or more runs were scored against him in his last four starts with St Louis prior to the trade, and that's the Leake I think we get this evening.

Yet, I wouldn't go and lay the farm on the Angels ML in that case as Nolasco's been far from good either. This will be his fifth start vs the Mariners this year and while the Angels are 3-1 SU in those games, his two prior starts in Seattle finished with 6-5 and 8-7 scores. A desperate Mariners team could easily end up on the right side of a scoreline like that and it's why I'm sending my money to the total.

Getting 11 or more runs in two starts in this stadium is not good for Nolasco from his perspective, but it does look great to bettors who want the 'over.' Seattle is more than capable of mashing the ball around tonight, and with the way the Angels have been scoring of late, I don't know how you can not like the 'over' tonight.

L.A. is on a 4-1-1 O/U run following a day off, is 4-0-2 O/U in Nolasco's last six starts against division rivals, and as a team the Angels are 6-1-1 O/U in their last eight against AL West foes. Meanwhile, Seattle is on a 8-1 O/U run when playing a foe that scored two runs or less in their last outing, and also have a strong 'over' trend going following a day off as they are 10-4 O/U in this spot the last 14 tries. With plus-money odds currently being offered on the high side of this number, that's where my money is going tonight.

Best Bet: Over 9.5

MLB Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (+149, 9)

While most people are talking about the Indians and Diamondbacks respective impressive win streaks, the American League leading Astros have quietly won seven straight themselves. They go for eight in a row Friday night when they visit the A’s.

Houston sends right-hander Collin McHugh to the mound for the opener of their four-game set, which could mean a tough night for Oakland.

McHugh, has looked good since coming off the disabled after he missed the first half of the season with an elbow injury. Since coming off the DL he has 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in eight starts and he loves facing the A’s, who are already slumping having lost eight of their last nine games.

The Astros have won McHugh’s last seven starts against the A’s and is 7-1 in 10 career starts against them, pitching to a 2.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in those 10 games.

But if -165 is too chalky for you, check this out. The Astros are 13-3 against the A’s this season and in all 13 wins they have won by at least two runs. Plus, they’re on of the best teams against the runline on the road in the MLB at 41-26.

If you think they’ll win and we do take the runline.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+103)

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-110, 9)

We got a little unlucky with the Push in last night’s game, as no runs were scored after the sixth inning and Matt Harvey put up an acceptable performance. Well, we are going back to the well for the second game of this four-game set in Queens.

Game 2 pits two southpaws against one another as Cincinnati’s Amir Garrett faces off against New York’s Seth Lugo.

The Reds have lost Gerrett’s last six starts in which he hasn’t gone past the fourth inning four times and where he has an ERA of a whopping 12.49 and a WHIP of 2.15.

Lugo hasn’t been much better for the Mets. New York has lost four of his last five starts, where he has pitched to a 6.93 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP.

Oh, and even with the Push last night, they’re still the best two Over teams in baseball.

Pick: Over 9

Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season To Date: 135-128-14

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs are on fire, having won 13 in a row, including two sweeps of the Dodgers and Patrick Corbin has been a big part of that, as the Arizona southpaw has been dealing.

The Diamondbacks have won Corbin’s last five starts, pitching to a ridiculous 0.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. Corbin and the D-backs go for 14 in a row when they host the Padres as big -250 chalk on Friday night.

Slumping: Buck Farmer, Detroit Tigers

Poor ol’ Buck. Farmer has been a spot starter for the Tigers over the last four seasons and with the 2017 season already in the dumpster for Detroit that means more starts for the right-hander.

Farmer’s first two starts this season went very well surprisingly, allowing no earned runs in 13 innings pitched. Since then, it hasn’t gone so well. In Farmer’s last four starts the Tigers are 1-3, while he has pitched to a 14.18 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.

Farmer and the Tigers are big +190 dogs tonight in Toronto when they visit the Blue Jays.

Friday's Top Trends

* Nationals are 6-0 in Max Scherzer's last six home starts. Nationals -330 vs. Phillies.
* Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 overall. Marlins -118 @ Braves.
* Under is 23-5-1 in Brewers last 29 road games. O/U: 8 @ Cubs.
* Over is 9-1-1 in Ian Kennedy's last 11 home starts. Royals +202 vs. Twins.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The Windy City will live up to its name on Friday. With winds blowing in from center at Wrigley at 11 mph and from left to right field at Guaranteed Rate Field.