ALDS Betting Preview: Orioles at Yankees
By Covers.com
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-198, 7.5)
Series tied 2-2
Neither the Baltimore Orioles nor the New York Yankees were able to gain the upper hand during the regular season as the American League East rivals split their 18-game season series. Nothing has been resolved thus far in their AL Division Series as each club has won a pair of contests, setting up Game Five at Yankee Stadium on Friday to decide who will face the Detroit Tigers in the AL Championship Series.
Baltimore was within two outs of taking a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday, only to have Raul Ibanez hit a game-tying home run as a pinch hitter in the ninth inning and a game-winning blast leading off the 12th frame. The Orioles turned the tables a night later as rookie Manny Machado opened the 13th inning of a 1-1 contest with a double and scored two batters later on J.J. Hardy's two-base hit. Closer Jim Johnson, who took the loss in the series opener and served up Ibanez's first homer in Game Three to blow the save opportunity, redeemed himself by retiring the Yankees in order for his second save of the postseason.
The Orioles improved to 31-10 in one-run games this year, including a 2-1 mark in the series. The starting pitching on both sides has been tremendous through the first four contests. Of the eight combined starters, only one (Andy Pettitte) has allowed more than two runs. Baltimore's starters have yielded six runs while New York's have given up eight.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50’s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 15 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Jason Hammel (0-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (1-0, 2.08)
Making his first start since Sept. 11 and third since July 13 due to problems with his knee, Hammel pitched as well as could be expected in the series opener, limiting New York to two runs and four hits over 5 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old went 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts against the Yankees during the regular season, including a no-decision on Sept. 6 in which he yielded one run over five frames. Hammel is 1-3 with 5.86 ERA in 15 career games against the Yankees, including nine starts.
Sabathia had his best performance against the Orioles this season in the series opener, coming within one out of a complete game as he allowed two runs and eight hits with a walk and seven strikeouts. During the regular season, the 32-year-old struggled versus Baltimore, going 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in three starts. Sabathia has dominated the Orioles over his career as he's posted a 17-4 record and 3.07 ERA in 26 outings.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in Sabathia’s last seven starts vs. Orioles.
* Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts vs. Orioles.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Hammel’s last four starts overall.
UMPIRE TRENDS- Mike Everitt
* Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games with Everitt behind home plate.
* Road team is 8-2 in Everitt’s last 10 games behind home plate.
* Under is 5-1 in Everitt’s last six games behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. While New York 3B Alex Rodriguez has been grilled in the press for his lack of production, CF Curtis Granderson has been even worse thus far in the series. Rodriguez is 2-for-16 with nine strikeouts and Granderson 1-for-16 while fanning nine times.
2. Including the playoffs, Baltimore is 17-3 in extra-inning contests this year. All three losses have been to the Yankees.
3. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season. They have combined for six over the first four games of the series, with each club hitting three.
NLDS Betting Preview: Cardinals at Nationals
By Covers.com
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-134, 7)
Series tied 2-2
The Washington Nationals still don't have their offense clicking in the National League Division Series, but they got the home run when they needed it in Game 4. Jayson Werth’s walk-off blast staved off elimination and gave Washington its first home playoff win since Game 3 of the 1933 World Series. The Nationals now have a chance to clinch the best-of-five series at home against Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals.
The teams combined for only six hits in Washington’s 2-1 win on Thursday afternoon but the last one mattered the most, as Werth fought through a 13-pitch at-bat and hammered a homer into the bullpen in left-center. The Nationals are averaging 2.25 runs in the series, with only Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman batting over .300 among the regulars. The Cardinals exploded offensively in their two victories, totaling 20 runs, but have managed three in their two setbacks. St. Louis batters struck out eight times among nine outs against the Nationals bullpen on Thursday. One of those relievers was Game 2 starter Jordan Zimmermann, who struck out the side in the seventh. Both managers will likely have everyone but the Game 4 starters available in relief on Friday.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s under clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 9 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (0-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 3.60)
Wainwright struck out 10 over 5 2/3 innings in Game 1, allowing one run on six hits while walking three. The veteran right-hander has struggled in three career starts at Nationals Park, going 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA. Wainwright was not a part of St. Louis’ World Series run last October while recovering from Tommy John surgery but is no stranger to big spots. It was Wainwright who struck out Carlos Beltran to end the 2006 NLCS and send the Cardinals to the World Series. He is 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA in 11 career playoff games (two starts).
Gonzalez struggled with his command in Game 1, issuing seven walks in five innings. The left-hander surrendered only one hit but was charged with two runs while striking out five. Gonzalez has not allowed more than three runs in a start since Aug. 3 and has been strong at home, going 9-4 with a 2.38 ERA in 14 starts at Nationals Park.
TRENDS:
* Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Washington.
* Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss.
* Nationals are 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last four home starts.
UMPIRE TRENDS-Alfonso Marquez
* Over is 7-0 in Marquez’s last seven games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Home team is 4-0 in Marquez’s last four Friday games behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 19-7 in their last 26 games with Marquez behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Washington CF Bryce Harper has struggled in the series, going 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts. Danny Espinosa (1-for-12) and Kurt Suzuki (1-for-13) are following closely behind.
2. The Cardinals won four elimination games in the 2011 postseason and took the one-game wild card playoff last week.
3. Werth’s 14 postseason home runs since 2004 are tied for the second-most in the majors over that span, behind only Albert Pujols’ 16.
MLB Playoffs
St Louis scored 20 runs in its two series wins, three in their two losses; hard to put big numbers up against GGonzalez, who is 5-1, 2.00 in his last seven starts, 1-0, 1.29 in two starts against St Louis this year; Washington staved off elimination Thursday, is now 4-2 in last six home games. Eight of eleven series games have gone over total. Wainwright is 1-0, 1.54 in his last two starts, both of which were against Washington, but Nationals pounded him in a previous start on August 31. Cardinals won six of their last eight away games.
Road team is 14-8 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 7-4 at this site. O's are now 31-10 in one-run games, 17-3 in extra-inning games, but all three losses were to Bronx. Hammel is 0-0, 2.51 in his last three starts, but effort in Game 1 was his first start in 26 days, so not sure how he rebounds here. He is 0-1, 4.15 in four starts vs Bronx this year. Sabathia is 3-0, 1.65 in his last four starts, lasting 8+ innings in all four; he is 1-2, 5.00 in four starts vs Orioles.
Armadillosports.com
ST LOUIS (91 - 76) at WASHINGTON (100 - 66) - 8:35 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 91-76 (-3.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 55-49 (-6.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-37 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-76 (-3.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 8-16 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 40-44 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 10-17 (-12.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 10-17 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997.
WAINWRIGHT is 5-13 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 66-41 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-46 (+17.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 60-39 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 49-37 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 41-32 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 100-66 (+22.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 97-66 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GONZALEZ is 25-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
GONZALEZ is 25-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GONZALEZ is 17-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ST LOUIS is 51-38 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 19-10 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-5 (+0.9 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.8 Units)
ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 4-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.462.
His team's record is 4-5 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.5 units)
GIO GONZALEZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 1.143.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
BALTIMORE (96 - 71) at NY YANKEES (97 - 69) - 5:05 PM
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 20-6 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 77-34 (+29.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 91-57 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 48-36 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 16-11 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
BALTIMORE is 45-31 (+22.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 32-15 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BALTIMORE is 88-61 (+38.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 28-19 (+12.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 54-41 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 56-43 (+28.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 28-24 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BALTIMORE is 96-71 (+39.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HAMMEL is 27-18 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 69-76 (-24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 11-11 (+4.8 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)
JASON HAMMEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HAMMEL is 1-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.554.
His team's record is 3-6 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.5 units)
C.C. SABATHIA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SABATHIA is 17-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 1.132.
His team's record is 20-6 (+9.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-9. (+5.4 units)
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
NY Yankees are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St Louis at Washington
Wainwright: 7-14 TSR away with a total of 7.5 or less runs
Gonzalez: 11-0 TSR vs. NL Central opponents
Baltimore at NY Yankees
Hammel: Baltimore 14-5 Under away off BB games scoring 3 runs or less
Sabathia: 72-22 TSR as a favorite of -175 to -250