MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Swept in Atlanta over the weekend the Washington Nationals try to right the ship sending Jordan Zimmermann to the mound. When these clubs met earlier this season Marlins chased the right-hander after 1 2/3 innings spanking the hurler for 7 hits 5 runs. But, Washington's pen held allowing 2 runs over 7 plus innings while the bats responded with 10 runs to save the day earning Zimmermann a ND along with his sixth straight team start record facing Miami. Always a challenge backing a skidding team but Washington has thrived in this situation. The Nationals are 5-1 in the next game after being swept in a three game series. Washington on a solid 12-2 stretch vs Miami since mid-July last year, 3-1 last four opening a road series with Zimmermann consider sticking with Nats.
Monday MLB Notes
By Dave Essler
Atlanta - Philadelphia: A lot of people probably went down with Gio, and I admit I was ALMOST one of them. Especially when the Braves put out their "B" lineup, and given how many chances they'd given Washington on Saturday. IMO they're going to need Santana to pitch deep, because the Braves bullpen has been used and hit lately. And there's not a lot of familiarity there, so there's every reason to think he might. Fausto needed 100+ pitches to get through five innings against Milwaukee last week, but the Braves haven't seen much of him, either, which would make me lean under. However, it's warm with a stiff breeze blowing out to left. Since the total is only at 8 with that wind, I lean under, mainly because Atlanta is simply a HR team and so are the Phillies. At only -130 or so it seems like they're asking for Atlanta money. With Utley and Howard hot, if Revere is playing, I may personally play the Philadelphia RL.
Washington - Miami: Always tough to take the Fish in a first-game back, but as badly as the Nationals are playing (3 errors on Sunday) even backing Zimmerman might be tough. They're also just not getting any timely hits. Zimmerman was torched by the Fish last week, and I mean torched. Usually we look for the pitcher to make the adjustments, but Miami has seen enough of him to think they can stay in this game. If they can get to the Nationals bullpen, which was worked by Atlanta, they've got a real shot. Without Zimmerman, Ramos, and now perhaps Span, I can't take Washington here. Miami is 5-2 at home with a bullpen ERA of 0.40. They beat the Fish three straight in Washington last week, which might be enough motivation to overcome the first game back thing. I may look hard at the series price, because if Miami can pull this one out, they get Jose and a shot at winning two of three.
Pirates - Reds: Well, Pittsburgh simply isn't hitting right now. I suppose part of that could be Lohse and Volquez being freaks, and their bullpen has already blown two saves. Since we were on the Rays on Sunday, I did have the occasion to watch most of that game. Honestly, Tampa Bay made the Reds offense look better than it really was with all the walks, and by the late innings it just didn't matter, as Maddon simply emptied the bullpen. With Bruce and Votto being about a combined 2-21 against Liriano, I might make a case for the Pirates. But, since Bailey has only been hit by Russell Martin who's probably not playing, the under looks far more appealing. I thought the Reds' bullpen would let them down today, but it may be Monday. Wind blowing out again to LF, so IMO this is ALL about whether Liriano can keep the ball down.
St. Louis - Milwaukee: Sooner or later we'll have to get in front of the train this is the Brewers. But, Garza has been almost unhittable and is one of the best in baseball at keeping the ball in the park and inducing ground ball outs. There's nobody on the Cardinals team that's done a ton against him, either, so getting in front of the train may have to wait. I keep waiting for the Brewers pen to implode, but unless and until it does I can't bet against them. Lynn has been miserable his first two starts, but has had some success in the past against Milwaukee, and last year was just not backable on the road. Brewers not tearing the cover off the ball lately, but doing it with pitching. With that in mind, at 8 I like the under here.
Mets - D-Backs: Well, the Mets were handed their ass in Los Angeles, but perhaps more importantly Wright and Murphy were ejected, which tells me they're at least playing with passion. It appears that Arizona is not, and Arizona brings Collmenter back from the bullpen, which is always scary since Arizona doesn't have much of one to begin with. Mets have had some success, namely the aforementioned two that were ejected, against Collmenter. Almost because they Angels pounded the shit out of the Mets, whatever "decent" relief pitchers they had weren't used. Fairly big total as you might expect, and perhaps too big. "9" in the NL is a lot. Wheeler WILL throw a lot of pitches, so he could save some innings on the other end. The Mets are just playing better, and although the D-Backs have a potent offense, one has to wonder where there heads are at right now. Lean Mets.
Rockies - Padres: Really annoyed I tweeted Padres RL on Sunday and didn't play it. Almost an automatic at -135 in what was going to be a low scoring game. Don't let me make that mistake again. Rockies bullpen has simply been used a ton lately, and after coming back to tie, only to lose in 10, to the Giants, I wonder where they're at mentally. Lyles has been great the first two starts, but against the White Sox and Miami. Eventually the Astros may wish they'd kept him. The Padres have individually had their way with him, so there's not much chance of taking Colorado here. Stults has not fared well, but this will be his first home start. Colorado has had some success against him, but probably not enough for me to get behind with that bullpen. They're (Colorado) 2-5 on the road and 0-3 against LHP.
Rays - Orioles: The one good thing we did on Sunday was not follow the lemmings on Baltimore. We put that in our work, too, saying that taking Baltimore would mean backing Ubaldo, which we just weren't going to do. Plus, because we were on them Saturday and watched most of the game, they appeared listless and just couldn't get any timely hits. Chen's been battered a couple of times, but has has success against the Rays. Ah, the Rays. Perhaps a bit under valued after the Reds bashing which was far more self-inflicted than it looked, and they did hit Cingrani a bit. Since Archer tends to keep the ball in the ballpark and has been very efficient (less need for the pen) I do think the Rays have a shot here.
Oakland - Angels: Don't quite grasp the move to the Angels here, not with the pitching the A's have had. I suppose Santiago has done well against the A's, but he's had a rough start and is not going to pitch deep (typically) bringing in the Angels pen which we don't ever like to trust. I do see that several of the key Angels have hit Chavez a bit, so this could be an over reaction to the Angels bats waking up Sunday. Lowrie rested on Sunday in Seattle, and the A's are already 3-0 against LHP's. At 8.5 I like the under here.
Monday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (110, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Newly acquired Braves pitcher Ervin Santana showed great command in his first start for Atlanta, setting a MLB record by throwing 20 straight strikes to open the game.
Hot batting stat: Chase Utley currently leads the majors with a .500 batting average.
Weather: Cloudy with SW winds going as high as 17 MPH.
Key betting stat: Atlanta have opened the season by going 4-1 in their last five road games.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-121, 7.5)
Cold pitching stats: Homer Bailey faced the Cardinals in his opening two starts of the season, blowing Reds leads in both outings.
Cold fielding stat: Pittsburgh have committed multiple errors in three of four games as the Pirates have developed some bad habits/luck as of late in the field.
Weather: 80% precipitation puts this game at risk of wet, rainy weather for now.
Key betting stat: Cincinnati have lost all four of their opening series to start the season, dropping two out of three games in all four heading into Monday's series opener with the Buccos.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (127, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Washington's Jordan Zimmerman will start against the Marlins yet again after failing to get out of the second inning in his last start, also against Miami where he allowed five runs on seven hits. Washington came back to win despite Zimmerman's awful start.
Hot batting stat: Giancarlo Stanton has three home runs on Zimmerman in 19 career at bats despite having just four hits on the Nationals starter to his name.
Weather: Overcast with weather in the low 70's.
Key betting stat: Both Miami and Washington are ice cold coming into Monday. Washington has a three game losing skid while things are much worse for the Marlins who have seven straight defeats.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-113, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Matt Garza will look to continue his strong start to the season for the Brewers as the former highly touted pitching prospect already has a near no-hitter to his name as well as a respectable six inning outing in his last start against the Phillies.
Hot batting stat: Brewers slugger Ryan Braun is 4-for-10 with a home run lifetime against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn.
Weather: Cold and cloudy with a temp. below 40 and winds of 21 MPH to the northwest.
Key betting stat: Despite their hot start, the Brewers will face a stern test in their NL Central rivals. The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last ten attempts against the Brewers at Miller Park.
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-128, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Arizona looks to figure out the backend of their rotation by testing out unproven Josh Collmenter who hasn't started a game since 2012.
Hot batting stat: The Mets have allowed 21 home runs this season, something that bodes well for the Diamondbacks bats this series.
Weather: Sunny and warm with weather topping the 70's.
Key betting stat: Over is 6-1 in the last seven Mets-Diamondbacks contests.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-121, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Surprise end of the rotation starter Jordan Lyles earned his stay in the Show for the Rockies in his last start, holding the White Sox to just one run and five hits in six plus innings of work.
Hot batting stat: Colorado's Charlie Blackmon has one of the best batting statlines going into mid-April with a .488 average and nine RBI's.
Weather: Highs nearing 80 are expected for tonight's night game.
Key betting stat: Four straight games between the two teams have went Under, including six of the last seven played in San Diego and away from the high altitudes of Coors Field.
Monday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-101, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen has failed to get out of the sixth inning in two starts so far in the 2014 season.
Hot batting stat: Former Ray Delmon Young has been on fire for Baltimore to start the year, batting 10-for-22 in the last five games.
Weather: Mostly cloudy with a high in the 70's.
Key betting stat: Tampa are on a four game winning streak against Baltimore and are 4-1 in the last five games on the road to the O's.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-129, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Rangers starter Colby Lewis will be making his first big league start since 2012. He will be facing rookie Roenis Elias who made the jump from AA to Seattle this spring.
Cold batting stat: Mariners 1B Justin Smoak hasn't had a hit in a staggering 13 at bats, compiling a woeful seven strikeouts at the plate.
Weather: 24 MPH NW winds should become a factor should the Texas wind keep blowing throughout the day.
Key betting stat: Over is 3-1-1 in the last five Seattle-Texas meetings.
Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels (105, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Oakland's Jesse Chavez had the best start of his career in his last outing, setting a career high for K's with nine.
Cold batting stat: A's star Coco Crisp may miss out on today's contest after tweaking his hamstring on the weekend.
Weather: High of 83 degrees in sunny California.
Key betting stat: Angels are 4-1 against righties over their last five games.