MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, April 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Pirates @ Cardinals
Nova is 1-1, 3.75 in his first two starts (over 2-0).
Lynn is 0-2, 6.97 in his two starts (over 2-0).
Pittsburgh won its last three games; under is 5-1 in their road games. St Louis is off to a 3-9 start; three of their last four games stayed under.
Padres @ Braves
Weaver is 0-1, 4.91 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Garcia is 0-1, 6.35 in his first two starts (over 2-0).
Atlanta won its last four games; seven of their last nine games went over the total. Padres are 3-7 in first ten road games, with seven of last nine staying under.
Brewers @ Cubs
Anderson is 1-0, 0.69 in his first two starts (under 2-0).
Lackey is 1-1, 3.75 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Brewers won five of their first five road games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Cubs lost their last three games; under is 5-1 in their home games.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Ray is 2-0, 2.19 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
McCarthy is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Arizona lost four of its last six games; over is 8-4-1 in its games. Dodgers are 5-2 at home; three of their last four home games went over.
American League
Rays @ Red Sox
Snell is 0-1, 5.56 in his two starts (over 1-1).
Wright is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games; five of their last seven games went over. Boston won three of its last four games; under is 7-5 in all their games this season.
Chicago-New York
Holland 1-1, 2.25 in his first two starts (under 2-0).
Montgomery allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his first MLB start, an 8-4 win over the Rays.
White Sox won four of their last five games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Bronx won its last seven games; they’re 6-0 at home. Three of their last four games stayed under.
Indians @ Twins
Salazar is 0-1, 5.40 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Gibson is 1-1, 8.00 in his first two starts (under 2-0).
Cleveland lost four of its last five games; over is 4-2 in their road games. Minnesota lost four of its last six games; their last four home tilts stayed under total.
Angels @ Astros
Chavez is 1-1, 5.40 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Morton is 0-1, 4.09 in his first two starts (under 2-0).
Angels lost their last five games; under is 6-1 in their road games. Astros won five of last six games; six of their last seven games went over.
Rangers @ A’s
Griffin 1-0, 6.75 in his first two starts (over 2-0); Texas scored 18 runs in the two games.
Cotton is 1-1, 3.97 in his first two starts (under 2-0).
Texas lost its last three games; their bullpen is already 1-5. Over is 4-2 in their road games. Oakland lost its last three games; three of its last four games went over.
Interleague
Marlins @ Mariners
Koehler is 0-0, 3.27 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Miranda is 0-1, 5.06 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Marlins won their last three games; their bullpen to decision in their last four games. Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Seattle won its last three games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Pitt-StL: Nova 1-1; Lynn 0-2
SD-Atl: Weaver 0-2; Garcia 1-1
Mil-Chi: Anderson 1-1; Lackey 1-1
Az-LA: Ray 2-0; McCarthy 2-0
American League
TB-Bos: Snell 0-2; Wright 0-2
Chi-NY: Holland 1-1; Montgomery 1-0
Clev-Min: Salazar 1-1; Gibson 1-1
LA-Hst: Chavez 1-1; Morton 1-1
Tex-A’s: Griffin 2-0; Cotton 1-1
Interleague
Mia-Sea: Koehler 1-1; Miranda 1-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Pitt-StL: Nova 0-2; Lynn 0-2
SD-Atl: Weaver 0-2; Garcia 0-2
Mil-Chi: Anderson 0-2; Lackey 2-2
Az-LA: Ray 0-2; McCarthy 0-2
American League
TB-Bos: Snell 0-2; Wright 2-2
Chi-NY: Holland 0-2; Montgomery 1-1
Clev-Min: Salazar 1-2; Gibson 0-2
LA-Hst: Chavez 0-2; Morton 0-2
Tex-A’s: Griffin 0-2; Cotton 0-2
Interleague
Mia-Sea: Koehler 1-2; Miranda 2-2
Armadillosports.com
Red-hot Pirates face struggling Cards
By: StatFox.com
The Pirates will be going for their fourth straight win when they face the Cardinals in St. Louis on Monday.
Pittsburgh and St. Louis are heading in opposite directions coming into this Monday night matchup. The Pirates have won three straight games coming into this one and the Cardinals have lost three straight. Pittsburgh just swept Chicago at Wrigley last series, and St. Louis was swept by New York at Yankee Stadium. The Pirates have had it going offensively recently, scoring a total of 18 runs over the past three games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, scored only eight in the series against the Yankees. St. Louis will need to get the bats going against Pittsburgh or it will be a tough series for the team. The Cardinals do, however, have the recent success in this head-to-head series over the years. Over the past three seasons, St. Louis is 20-18 against Pittsburgh and that includes an 11-8 record when playing at home. The starters in this one will be RHP Ivan Nova (1-1. 2.25 ERA, 5 K) for the Pirates and RHP Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.23 ERA, 8 K) for the Cardinals. One trend that sticks out when looking at this game is that home teams that are batting .190 or worse over their past three games - that are also coming off of a game where their bullpen allowed five or more earned runs - are 13-35 over the past five seasons. OF Gregory Polanco (Groin) is one notable player dealing with an injury. He is day-to-day right now, as he is dealing with some serious discomfort at the moment.
Ivan Nova was brilliant after being acquired by the Pirates near last season’s trade deadline, and he has picked up 2017 right where he left off. Although he is just 1-1 on the year so far, Nova has allowed only three runs in 12 innings of work. He has been a quality start machine for the Pirates over the past two seasons, and he will be hoping for a similar outing when he takes the mound on Monday. It’s worth noting that his best work as a Pirate has come at PNC Park, so he should be confident at the very least. Offensively, three guys that will be looking forward to facing Lynn in this game are 2B Josh Harrison (.270 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI), OF Starling Marte (.260 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI), and OF Gregory Polanco (.278 BA, 0 HR, 1 RBI). As previously mentioned, Polanco is listed as questionable for this game. It’d be big if he can play though, as the three of them are a combined 20-for-57 with five doubles against Lynn in their careers. OF Andrew McCutchen (.250 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI) is also worth mentioning coming into this one. Over the past four games, McCutchen has two homers, a triple and six RBI. He is feeling good at the plate and could do some damage here.
Lance Lynn is off to a pretty brutal start for the Cardinals this season, as he has failed to pitch into the seventh inning of a single game this year. The same can be said for Nova, but the Pirates’ righty consistently gets them to the seventh inning with leads. Lynn, meanwhile, is coming off of a game where he allowed six runs (four earned) in 5.0 innings of work. He allowed three homers in that loss to the Nationals, and it’s important he finds a way to avoid mistakes in this one. If he can’t keep the ball down and find his control then the Cardinals are not going to have a chance in this one. Offensively, OF Dexter Fowler (.143 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI) is a good bet to break out of his slump in this one. He is 2-for-3 in his career against Nova, so it’s not out of the question that he’ll have his first multi-hit game of 2017. C Yadier Molina (.229 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBI) is another player to watch in this one. He was 1-for-3 with a homer against the Yankees on Sunday night and that might just be the game he needed to get himself going.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics -130, 8
The A's will send electric rookie Jharel Cotton to the mound Monday night after getting bumped from Sunday due to a rain out vs. Houston. The Rangers will counter with former A's starter A.J. Griffin.
You should expect Cotton to have a decent evening against a Rangers offense that is sputtering early in the season, hitting only .227 with 105 strikouts. Cotton is coming off a two-hit, seven-inning performance in his last outing against the Kansas City Royals.
On the other side, Griffin may not throw 98 miles per hour (far from it) but he certainly has a knack for getting hitters out. His craft approach will neutralize the power bats in the Oakland lineup, keeping them to ground balls and weak fly balls.
Pick: Twins -130
Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners -135, 8
The Seattle Mariners will host the Miami Marlins on Monday night for the opening game of a three-day set at Safeco Field. #FriedGrasshoppers
The M's will send lefty Ariel Miranda (0-1) to the mound while the Marlins will counter with Tom Koehler (0-0).
The reasoning around this play is simple - when Tom Koehler starts for the Marlins, they usually lose. In fact, dating back to last season the Marlins have lost 9 of his last 10 outings. It's not that he is a bad pitcher, but he'll do his usual and give up 3 or 4 runs over 5 innings and the pen will give up 1 or 2. The next thing you know the game will be over and the Marlins will have lost another Koehler start.
Pick: Mariners -135
Record to date: 3-3
Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
Streaking: Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers (1-0, 0.69 ERA, $95)
Although he draws a tough assignment today vs. the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, Chase Anderson has been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball through the opening two weeks of the season.
He has a pair of tremendous starts under his belt thus far in 2017 including a very impressive seven inning, three hit performance at Toronto vs. Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays in his last outing - a 2-0 Brewers victory.
Anderson and the Brewers are big +170 dogs today at John Lackey and the Cubbies.
Slumping: Jered Weaver, San Diego Padres (0-2, 4.91 ERA, $-200)
Jered Weaver has been slumping since 2014. Why he hasn't hung up the spikes yet is baffling - but it's always nice to have a few pitchers sprinkled around the league that you can use as automatic fades.
Although he is throwing more ground balls than he has over the last couple of seasons, signing in San Diego is a strange move for a veteran pitcher just playing out the string of a mostly successful career.
Weaver and the Padres are +150 underdogs today at Atlanta.
Monday’s Top Trends
* The Atlanta Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. -160 today vs Padres.
* The St. Louis Cardinals are 1-5 in Lance Lynn's last 6 home starts and 1-6 in their last 7 overall. -130 today vs. Pittsburgh.
* Under is 12-3-1 in the Minnesota Twins' last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. Total today vs. Cleveland is 8.5.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1-8 in Robbie Ray's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. +135 today @ Dodgers.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The only real notable weather for Monday is at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx where there will be a 10-15 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field for the Yanks' game against the Chicago White Sox. We all know that this young Yankees' lineup can rake and a little breeze blowing OUT in the extremely hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium could have a significant impact. The total for this evening's game is set at 8.5 vs. Derek Holland and the Chicago White Sox.
UMP Of The Day
Lazaro Diaz: Laz is a interesting case when looking at umpire total results over the past several seasons. From the start of 2012 until the end of the 2015 MLB season Diaz had 122 home plate assignments. During those 122 games he racked up a very lofty 76-46 O/U record (63 percent). With pace of play being such a "hot button" issue with baseball ownership, it's pretty obvious that he was asked to expand his strike zone slightly - which resulted in an increase in Under results. Last season Diaz had a home plate Over/Under record of 12-14 and thus far in 2017 he sits at 1-2 O/U. Laz Diaz will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Los Angeles where the Arizona Diamondbacks will be in town to take on the Dodgers. The total is currently set at 7.