MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, April 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cubs @ Pirates
Anderson is 1-0, 4.40 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Kuhl is 1-1, 3.12 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Chicago won four of its last five games; their last six games went over. Pittsburgh lost four of its last six games; over is 6-1-2 in their home games.
Reds @ Brewers
Garrett is 2-1, 1.83 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Garza is making his first ’17 start; he is 87-97, 4.03 in 262 career starts, was 6-8, 4.51 in 19 starts last year.
Reds lost four of their last five games; they’re 5-1 on road. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Milwaukee lost five of its last six home games- over is 8-2 in its last ten home games.
Nationals @ Rockies
Ross allowed three runs in seven IP (100 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 14-4 win over Atlanta.
Anderson is 0-3, 7.98 in his last three starts (over 3-1 this year).
Nationals won their last seven games; they’re 7-2 on road- they also played a nite game in NYC last nite. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Colorado won six of its last seven games; under is 9-3 in their last twelve games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Chacin is 0-2, 14.04 in two road starts, 2-0, 0.00 in two home starts (under 3-1).
Greinke is 1-2, 3.28 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Padres lost their last four road games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games overall. Arizona won seven of last eight home games; over is 8-2 in their home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
Ryu is 0-3, 5.87 in three starts this month (under 3-0). Dodgers scored four runs in the three games.
Cain is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts (over 1-1-1).
Dodgers lost five of their last seven games (under 5-2)- they’re 3-6 on road. San Francisco lost their last four games, are 6-13, their worst start since 1983. Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
American League
Royals @ White Sox
Vargas is 3-0, 0.44 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.79 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Royals lost their last four games; their last ten games stayed under the total. Chicago lost three of last four games; their last six home games stayed under.
Twins @ Rangers
Hughes is 2-1, 6.60 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Perez is 1-2, 3.60 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Twins lost six of their last seven games; under is 5-1 in their road games. Texas won its last five home games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Rays @ Orioles
Archer is 2-0, 3.20 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Jimenez is 1-0, 5.40 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Rays won four of last six games; they’re 1-6 on road. Last five Tampa Bay games went over total. Baltimore is 6-2 at home; their last five games stayed under total.
Blue Jays @ Angels
Liriano is 1-1, 1.50 in his last two starts; under is 2-1 in his starts this month.
Nolasco is 1-2, 4.77 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Toronto is 4-4 in its last eight games after a 1-9 start; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Angels lost four of last five games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Chi-Pitt: Anderson 2-1; Kuhl 1-2
Cin-Mil: Garrett 2-1; Garza 0-0
Wsh-Colo: Ross 1-0; Anderson 1-3
SD-Az: Chacin 2-2; Greinke 2-2
LA-SF: Ryu 0-3; Cain 2-1
American League
KC-Chi: Vargas 3-0; Gonzalez 3-0
Min-Tex: Hughes 2-1; Perez 1-3
TB-Balt: Archer 4-0; Jimenez 3-0
Tor-LAA: Liriano 1-2; Nolasco 2-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Chi-Pitt: Anderson 1-3; Kuhl 1-3
Cin-Mil: Garrett 0-3; Garza 0-0
Wsh-Colo: Ross 1-1; Anderson 1-4
SD-Az: Chacin 1-4; Greinke 0-4
LA-SF: Ryu 3-3; Cain 2-3
American League
KC-Chi: Vargas 0-3; Gonzalez 1-3
Min-Tex: Hughes 3-3; Perez 2-4
TB-Balt: Archer 1-4; Jimenez 1-3
Tor-LAA: Liriano 1-3; Nolasco 2-4
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Double-Play Picks
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-105, 7.5)
The Kansas City Royals roll into Chicago on Monday to take on the White Sox. The Royals are fresh off being swept in four games by the Texas Rangers in Arlington and the Sox lost two of three over the weekend at home against the Cleveland Indians.
Kansas City scored five total runs in their four losses in Texas and come into Monday's game having played 10 consecutive Unders. The explanation is simple - the Royals starting pitching has been good but they can't hit. Jason Vargas gets the ball Monday and he has been terrific in his return to the rotation (3-0, 0.44 ERA, .216 opponent on base percentage) and spanning the last three seasons the Royals have played 10 consecutive Unders in his starts.
The White Sox have been playing plenty of Unders at home in 2017 (5-0-1 in last six home games) and will send righty Miguel Gonzalez to the hill (2-0, 2.84 ERA) with five of his last six starts against the Royals cashing for Under bettors.
Pick: Under 7.5
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-160, 9)
The Arizona Diamondbacks send ace Zack Greinke to the mound to kick off this four-game series with the visiting San Diego Padres, who will counter with righty Jhoulys Chacin.
This is a classic revenge spot for Greinke and the D-Backs. Greinke tossed an eight-inning gem in San Diego in his last start but Arizona was unable to generate any offense in a 1-0 loss. The Diamondbacks have won both of Greinke's home starts this season and are a very tidy 8-2 at Chase Field thus far in 2017.
Chacin, on the other hand, is 2-2 early on this season but both of his losses have come on the road where he currently owns a 14.04 ERA in two road starts. As much as the Padres have surprised this season, by not being the worst team in baseball history, they have won most of their games at home and are only 3-8 in their 11 road contests.
Slightly chalky, but worth it in this revenge spot. Greinke, at home, against the Padres - should be higher.
Pick: Diamondbacks -160
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 10-10
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals (3-0, 0.44 ERA, $355)
We don't mean to jinx him (like we did Sunday with Andrew Triggs) but Jason Vargas has looked tremendous since his return from Tommy John surgery. The Royals' lefty made three solid appearances in September and has carried that over into 2017.
His last start was his best of the season, holding the San Francisco Giants to just four hits over seven shutout innings while racking up nine strikeouts to go along with zero walks.
Slumping: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Loa Angeles Dodgers (0-3, 5.87 ERA, -$415)
Hyun-Jin Ryu has struggled to find his previous form after missing the bulk of the last two seasons and suffered his third defeat in as many starts Tuesday after giving up four runs in six frames against Colorado.
The portly, 30-year-old South Korean already has served up six home runs over 15 1/3 innings in 2017 after surrendering a total of 24 over the first 348 2/3 frames of his major-league career.
Monday’s Top Trends
* Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Cubs and Pirates in Pittsburgh. Total set at 8 today.
* The Orioles are 25-6 in Ubaldo Jimenez' last 31 home starts. O's +105 today vs Rays.
* The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. KC -115 today @ Gonzalez and the White Sox.
* The Giants are 1-5 in Matt Cains last 6 starts vs. the Dodgers. SF +130 today vs Los Angeles.
Weather to Keep an Eye on
According to the forecast, it looks the Tampa Bay Rays and the Orioles are in for an unpleasant night for baseball in Baltimore (and Dustin Pedroia and the Boston Red Sox won't even be in town).
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50's with a 10-15 mile per hour pitcher's wind blowing IN from right-center field. There is also a 50 percent chance of rain throughout the game - not enough the have the game postponed, just enough to make the evening miserable.
UMP of the Day
Alfonso Marquez: Tonight will be Marquez' fourth home plate of the 2017 season and his numbers have been a bit off. He currently owns a 2-1 O/U record but his strike percentage is very high (65.19 percent) and his average runs per game in only 7.67. His previous three games have had totals on the low side (7.5, 7.5, and 8 ). Tonight's total is also on the low side with the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels getting pegged with an 8.
Note - Eight of Marquez' last nine games calling balls-and-strikes involving the Jays have gone Under the closing total.