National League
Conley is 3-0, 2.12 in his last five starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. Miami is 6-5 in his road starts.
Hendricks is 4-1, 1.80 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under the total. Cubs won his last six home starts.
Marlins won five of last seven road games, are 10-6 in road series openers. Last five Miami games went over. Cubs are 15-3 in home series openers. Under is 10-3 in last 13 games at Wrigley Field.
Nationals @ Diamondbacks
Strasburg is 4-1, 1.94 in his last six starts; three of last four stayed under. Nationals are 7-1 in his road starts.
Bradley is 1-1, 2.50 in his last three starts; his last four stayed under the total. Arizona is 2-4 in his home starts.
Nationals are 5-8 in last 13 games, 10-8 in road series openers. Last five Washington games stayed under. Arizona lost nine of last 12 games, is 3-14 in home series openers. Over is 9-2-1 in last 12 games at Chase Field.
Brewers @ Padres
Nelson is 0-2, 11.17 in his last two starts; five of his last six stayed under total. Milwaukee is 4-5 in his road starts.
Cosart was 0-1, 6.41 in four starts (over 3-1) for Miami this year; this is his San Diego debut.
Brewers won six of last seven games; they’re 5-11 in road series openers. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. San Diego is 4-9 in last 13 games, 10-7 in home series openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
American League
Royals @ Rays
Duffy is 4-0, 3.00 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-2 in his road starts- KC won four of those six games.
Archer is 1-3, 4.78 in his last four starts; six of his last nine stayed under. Tampa bay lost his last six home starts.
Royals lost 18 of last 24 games, is 4-13 in road series openers. Six of last eight KC road games stayed under. Tampa Bay won its last four home games, is 7-10 in home series openers. Under is 13-4 in Rays’ last 17 games.
Twins @ Indians
Berrios was 1-1, 10.20 in four starts back in May (over 2-1-1).
Salazar is 1-0, 6.55 in his last four starts; six of his last eight went over. Indians are 9-1 in his last 10 starts, 7-1 in his last eight at home.
Twins are 7-5 in last 12 games, 5-11 in road series openers. Over is 9-4 in Minnesota’s last 13 road games. Cleveland won four of last five games, is 11-5 in home series openers. Under is 3-0-1 in Tribe’s last four games.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Stroman is 2-0, 3.97 in his last five starts; his last three stayed over. Toronto is 5-4 in his road starts.
Fister is 2-4, 5.00 in his last six starts; four of his last five home starts went over. Astros are 5-3 in his home starts.
Blue Jays won five of last seven games, are 10-6 in road series openers. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Toronto games. Houston lost five of last six games, is 10-7 in home series openers. Under is 9-4-1 in last 14 Astro home games.
Red Sox @ Mariners
Rodriguez is 1-1, 3.06 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Boston won three of his four road starts.
Paxton is 1-2, 5.29 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over. He is 1-1, 8.62 in his last three home starts.
Red Sox lost seven of last ten games, are 9-6 in road series openers. Last eight Boston road games stayed under. Seattle won seven of last ten home games, is 9-7 in home series openers. Five of Mariners’ last seven games went over the total.
Interleague
Bronx @ Mets
Sabathia is 1-4, 6.51 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Bronx is 6-4 in his home starts.
Verrett is 0-4, 6.38 in his last seven starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Bronx lost its last four games, is 8-9 in road series openers. Over is 14-5 in last 19 Bronx road games. Mets lost eight of last ten home games; they’re 12-5 in home series openers (4-4 in last 8). Over is 3-1-1 in last five Met games.
Teams’ record when this pitcher starts
Mia-Chi– Conley 12-9; Hendricks 11-8
Wsh-Az– Strasburg 17-2; Bradley 7-7
Mil-SD– Nelson 9-12; Cosart 0-0/1-3
KC-TB– Duffy 11-3; Archer 6-16
Min-Clev– Berrios 1-3; Salazar 13-6
Tor-Hst– Stroman 11-10; Fister 13-7
Bos-Sea– Rodriguez 3-6; Paxton 3-8
NYY-NYM– Sabathia 9-9; Verrett 3-6
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning
Mia-Chi– Conley 6-21; Hendricks 5-19
Wsh-Az– Strasburg 5-19; Bradley 5-14
Mil-SD– Nelson 5-21; Cosart 2-4
KC-TB– Duffy 3-14; Archer 10-22
Min-Clev– Berrios 1-4; Salazar 2-19
Tor-Hst– Stroman 6-21; Fister 3-20
Bos-Sea– Rodriguez 3-9; Paxton 3-11
NYY-NYM– Sabathia 4-18 (4 of last 6); Verrett 1-9
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
NY Yankees at NY Mets
This years subway series gets underway Monday at Citi Field as the New York Yankees visit the New York Mets. Yankees had a slight edge in play last season winning 4 of 6 meeting boosting the record to 15-11 the past five years including a solid 8-5 in Mets' back-yard.
Logan Verrett gets the call for Metropolitans. The right hander is a 3-6 record with a 4.12 ERA over 9 starts (1-4) and 18 relief appearances (2-2). This marks the rookie first subway series. Verrett trades pitches with Yankees' southpaw C.C. Sabathia carrying a 6-8 record, 3.95 ERA to the hill. Sabathia has 3-2 record, 4-2 Teams Start Record vs Mets since joining Yankees.
The fact that this game is at Citi Field has no doubt caught the attention of sports handicappers, since the 'Under' has paid dividends in 10 of 13 played at this venue. Between Mets' current 14-4-1 'Under' stretch and Yankees' 13-3 'Under' record heading into Monday's action the series 'Under' trend in Mets' back-yard looks like it could continue.
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Brewers (4-0 last four, 6-1 last seven)
The Tigers have won a league-best six straight games but get the day off before opening a series against the White Sox at home, which means surprising Milwaukee will fill this spot. After wrapping up a sweep of Pittsburgh at Miller Park, the team embarked on a seven-game road trip to San Diego and Arizona with personnel matters till very much up in the air. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy blocked a deal to Cleveland over the weekend but may still be moved, while other contenders are sniffing around closer Jeremy Jeffress. Ryan Braun has been dealing with right side tightness and is questionable as well, so be sure to see who will be available if you’re pulling the trigger on the Brewers against the Padres. Jimmy Nelson (6-9, 3.42 ERA) had a 1-3 mark despite a 2.83 ERA in five July outings and has lost six of his last seven decisions. Jarred Cosart (0-1, 5.95), acquired from Miami in the deal for starters Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea, will make his first start for San Diego. He pitched five shutout innings in his first start since April against the Phillies on July 25.
Coldest team: Royals (1-8 last nine)
Fatigue is the latest reason utilized by manager Ned Yost to possibly explain why the defending World Series champs are sputtering entering August. Whatever the case, the fact is Kansas City has dipped to a season-worst six games under .500, ranking 11th out of 15 American League teams. The Royals are 8.5 games behind the Red Sox for the second wild card and own the worst road record in the majors as they open this four-game set at Tampa Bay. Top prospect Brett Eibner was moved to Oakland on Sunday for OF Billy Burns as the Royals seek out a spark with time realistically running out on their ability to turn things around emphatically enough to make a playoff push. The offense has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last eight games, all losses. Lefty Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.22) has started six consecutive Kansas City wins, earning victories in five straight decisions. Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42), provided he’s still on the roster, will take the ball for the Rays.
Hottest pitcher: Stephen Strasburg (14-1, 2.68 ERA)
Since Clayton Kershaw got hurt, there is little mystery as to the current front-runner in the NL Cy Young Award race. Strasburg finally lost for the first time on July 21 after opening up with 13 consecutive wins, but he got back on track with an impressive effort at Cleveland last time out, pitching seven innings of three-hit ball in a 4-1 win over the AL’s top team. Strasburg will be facing the Diamondbacks for the first time this season but had his worst start of 2015 at Chase Field last year, surrendering eight Arizona runs in 3.1 innings in a 14-6 loss.
Coldest pitcher: Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12 ERA)
Verrett hasn’t pitched poorly, but he’s been the victim of bad luck in failing to adequately make up for the absence of Matt Harvey. Verrett has been utilized as a swing guy for the Mets, starting games and coming out of the bullpen, but he hasn’t won a decision since April 26 and has only won a single start this season. In fact, New York went 6-1 in games he appeared in during the opening month, but is just 4-16 since. He’s coming off his longest outing of 2016, picking up a no-decision in a 5-4 home loss to St. Louis that Jeurys Familia fumbled, snapping a 52-game streak without a blown save. Verrett will be facing the Yankees for the first time, matched up against veteran CC Sabathia (6-8, 3.95).
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (5-0 last five, 13-5 last 18)
Strasburg had a 2.08 ERA in July, but gave up more than a single run in only one of his five starts. The OVER had gone 12-2 prior to him landing on the disabled list following his June 15 start against the Cubs. Since then, the UNDER is 3-2. Oddsmakers have set the total tonight at 8 runs as Strasburg squares off against Archie Bradley (4-6, 4.17).
Biggest OVER run: Mariners (4-1 last five)
The Mariners squandered a 6-0 lead in losing to the Cubs at Wrigley, so they couldn't have had the most enjoyable flight back to Washington as they prepare to begin a critical 10-game homestand with a four-game set against the Red Sox. James Paxton (3-5, 4.27) is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA at Safeco Field this season, while young lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-1 away from Fenway despite a 7.08 ERA over four starts. He'll be facing the Mariners for the first time in his career.
Matchup to watch: Marlins at Cubs
Only one matchup pits would-be playoff teams against one another if the season ended today, so with apologies to New York’s Subway Series, this is a no-brainer. The Marlins recovered from losing their first two home games against the Cardinals by winning on Saturday and Sunday, pulling off yesterday’s in walk-off fashion on Derek Dietrich’s game-winning triple in the bottom of the ninth. Hours later, the Cubs were pulling off a remarkable comeback win in the 12th inning, taking down the Mariners with a three-run bottom of the ninth and a walk-off squeeze play. Chicago owns the best record in baseball and sends Kyle Hendricks (9-7, 2.39) to the mound against lefty Adam Conley (7-5, 3.38) in what looks like Monday’s top pitching matchup. Although Miami may have to win a wild card date to get there, this could be an NLDS preview. The Marlins won three of four against the Cubs in South Florida from June 23-26.
Betcha didn’t know: Not only did the Indians coast to an 8-0 win over the A's, completing a series sweep on the same day they made a huge splash in acquiring reliever Andrew Miller from the Yanks, the blowout of Oakland extended their edge in run differential to plus-97. Boston (+84) and Toronto (+81) are second and third, respectively, which should tell you how dominant the Tribe has been in ascending to the AL's best record by percentage points over Texas. Danny Salazar (11-3, 2.97) hasn't lost a decision since May 22. Cleveland is 9-1 over his last 10 starts with last-place Minnesota coming to town.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-190) at Diamondbacks
Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+100) at Padres
Biggest line move: Mariners (-115 to -130) vs. Red Sox
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Clash of the Titans
Two of the three American League division leaders square off as the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles duel in a three-game set at Camden Yards beginning Tuesday night.
Both teams have provided significant value to bettors this season; the Rangers (62-44) have won the most money of any team in the majors (+2,378), while the Orioles (59-45) rank third in units won at +1,338. They’re also a combined 71-33 at home this season - providing a distinct advantage to the Orioles, who are coming off losing two of three in Toronto.
The Rangers took three of four the last time these teams met, with 11 of their 23 runs in the series coming in just two innings - a five-run sixth on April 14, and a six-run seventh on April 16. Relievers earned all three wins for Texas.
Twin Killing?
Fresh off making a significant trade for the majors’ best reliever - and stunningly missing out on an upgrade at catcher - the Cleveland Indians look to extend their AL Central Division lead with a four-game series against the visiting Minnesota Twins.
The Indians swept the Oakland Athletics out of town to remain 4 1/2 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers, who have won six straight but didn’t gain a stitch of ground over the weekend. And that may not happen for a while if the Indians continue their divisional dominance (30-13 vs. Central foes) against a Twins team that is just 11-25 against divisional opponents.
If that wasn’t enough to convince you, consider the teams’ respective run differentials: The Indians rank first in the American League at +97, while the Twins are second last (-79), ahead of only the Athletics (-82).
Big Game Fishing
The Miami Marlins were big players ahead of Monday’s trade deadline - and they’ll put their new lineup to the test this week as they play a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Marlins acquired starters Andrew Cashner and Collin Rea in a seven-player blockbuster with the San Diego Padres as they look to close the gap between themselves and the NL East-leading Washington Nationals. And while this may seem crazy, the Marlins' record since May 1 (45-37) is nearly identical to that of the Cubs (46-36), considered by many to be the World Series favorite.
Pitching Notes
Lance McCullers has been baseball’s top Under option over the past two months, going 0-9 against the total over that stretch. That has been mostly his doing; the 22-year-old has allowed two runs or fewer seven times over that span, and is coming off three straight starts of one run against. With 100 strikeouts over 76 innings, he should be a solid Under bet the rest of the way.
One of the top pitching matchups of the week goes Wednesday evening at Comerica Park, as Detroit’s Michael Fulmer takes on Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale - provided that Sale doesn’t end up on another team at Monday’s deadline. Sale is looking for his first victory since July 2, while Detroit has won six straight with Fulmer - the prohibitive favorite for AL Rookie of the Year - on the hill.
Hitting Notes
One of the leaders in the NL Rookie of the Year race is having a sensational stretch himself. Colorado Rockies SS Trevor Story has been on a tear, belting six home runs and driving in 15 over his previous 13 games. The majority of that damage came at Coors Field (surprise, surprise), and he’ll have a great opportunity to add to those totals with the Rockies kicking off an eight-game homestead Tuesday against the Dodgers.
Much has been made of the Washington Nationals’ bullpen issues, but perhaps more attention should be focused on the struggles of right fielder Bryce Harper. The defending National League MVP has a positively putrid .170/.295/.318 slash line in July, and has only six hits - including four singles - since the All-Star break. He’ll look to get going this week with three games in Arizona and another three at home against San Francisco.
Totals Trend
Over is 3-0 in Jose Berrios’ three career big-league starts. Berrios is expected to return to major-league action Monday against host Cleveland.
Yankees, Mets hook up
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW YORK YANKEES (52-52) at NEW YORK METS (54-50)
Sportsbook.ag Line: NY Yankees -105, NY Mets -105, Total: 8.0
The Yankees will be looking to avoid a fifth straight loss when they face the Mets on Monday.
The Yankees are in a position that not many are used to, as the they have pretty much given up their hopes of making the postseason and have started to sell off their assets. They will, however, be giving it their all in this series, as this is still a local rivalry and the Yankees will be hoping to make things a bit tougher on the Mets to make the postseason. The Mets are coming off of a 6-4 victory over the Rockies on Sunday, but they had lost four straight games heading into that one and must start to rattle off some more wins soon.
The starters in this Monday matchup are set to be LHP C.C. Sabathia (6-8, 3.95 ERA, 81 K) for the Yankees and RHP Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12 ERA, 51 K) for the Mets. One interesting thing worth noting is that the Mets are 23-5 against the money line when playing on Monday over the past two seasons. They are also 75-39 against the money line when the line is -100 to -150 over the past two seasons. OF Yoenis Cespedes (Quad) is, however, questionable for the Mets in this one.
Sabathia is coming off of a very good start for the Yankees, allowing just two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The lefty struck out five batters in that game, but he did allow two solo homers and will need to avoid making big mistakes like that on Monday. He has now allowed two homers in two of his past five starts and needs to keep the ball in the park on Monday.
Offensively, the Yankees have no experience against Verrett. They also could be without OF Carlos Beltran (.304, 22 HR, 64 RBI), who is their best hitter by a mile and also their top asset ahead of Monday’s trade deadline. If he is no longer on the team then it’ll be tough for the Yankees to score moving forward. Another guy to keep an eye on for the Yanks is SS Didi Gregorius (.292, 11 HR, 43 RBI). Gregorius has surprisingly emerged as one of the best hitters on this team and the Yankees can use some production out of him on Monday. He is, however, 0-for-7 over the past two contests and needs to break out of this slump.
Logan Verrett will be on the mound for the Mets on Monday and he has pitched very well for the Mets recently. In Verrett’s last 18.1 innings of work, he has allowed just seven earned runs. If he could come through with something close to a quality start on Monday then the Mets would be in very good shape, as they should be able to hit Sabathia in this one.
Offensively, the Mets to keep an eye on are OF Yoenis Cespedes (.291, 22 HR, 58 RBI) and 2B Neil Walker (.259, 17 HR, 45 RBI). Cespedes might not play in this game, but he is this team’s bet source of power and it would be big if he were to be in the lineup on Monday. With Sabathia’s inability to throw his fastball with any velocity, Cespedes could easily send one out of the park in this one. Walker, meanwhile, is on a tear for the Mets, as he has gone 12-for-19 with a homer and five RBI over the past five games. He’ll be hoping to keep it up in this game against the Yankees.