National League
Marlins @ Reds
Phelps is 0-1, 0.96 in two starts for Miami (under 2-0).
Finneran is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over. Reds are 3-6 when he starts at home.
Marlins are 4-8 in last 12 games, 11-7 in road series openers. Four of last five Miami road games went over. Cincinnati is 15-10 in its last 25 games, 7-2 in last nine home series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Nationals @ Rockies
Scherzer is 3-1, 2.09 in his last six starts; seven of his last eight stayed under. Washington is 9-5 in his road starts.
De la Rosa is 1-0, 3.09 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Rockies are 3-4 in his home starts.
Nationals are 8-3 in last 11 games, 10-8 in road series openers. Last four Washington games went over the total. Colorado lost nine of last 11 games; they’re 10-9 in road series openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Colorado games.
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Colon is 0-3, 4.18 in his last six starts; six of his last seven stayed under. Mets lost five of his last six road starts.
Ray is 0-3, 6.46 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Arizona lost five of his last seven home starts.
New York lost 12 of last 18 games; they’re 2-5 in last seven road series openers. Under is 22-7 in their last 29 road games. Arizona lost six of last eight home games; they’re 4-15 in home series openers. Over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games.
Pirates @ Giants
Vogelsong is 0-1, 1.89 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Moore is 0-1, 3.00 in two starts for the Giants (under 2-0).
Pirates are 4-9 in last 13 road games, 12-8 in road series openers. Under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Giants are 9-18 since All-Star break, 8-10 in home series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
American League
Red Sox @ Indians
Pomeranz is 0-2, 5.26 in five starts this year; three of his last four stayed under.
Tomlin is 1-3, 8.31 in his last four starts; over is 12-5-2 in his last 19 starts. Cleveland won seven of his nine home starts.
Red Sox won their last three games, scoring 31 runs; they’re 7-2 in last nine road series openers. Under is 12-3 in last 15 Boston road games. Cleveland won its last five home games; they’re 12-6 in home series openers. Six of last eight Indian home games went over.
Blue Jays @ New York
Dickey is 1-3, 7.96 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Toronto split his ten road starts.
Green is 1-2, 8.35 in four starts this year (over 3-0-1).
Blue Jays are 8-4 in last 12 games, 11-7 in road series openers. Last seven Toronto road games stayed under. New York won four of last five games; they’re 12-4 in last 16 home series openers. Four of last five New York games went over the total.
Royals @ Tigers
Kennedy is 0-0, 1.93 in his last three starts; nine of his last ten stayed under. Kansas City lost his last eight road starts.
Norris is 1-0, 4.24 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Royals won six of last eight games; under is 12-4 in their last 16. KC is 5-13 in its road series openers. Detroit won eight of last ten home games; they’re 8-1 in last nine home series openers. Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under.
A’s @ Rangers
Detwiler threw eight shutout innings (108 IP) in his first start this season.
Perez is 0-4, 7.08 in his last eight starts; six of his last nine stayed under. Texas won his last eight home starts.
A’s lost three of last four games; they’re 10-8 in road series openers. Six of last eight A’s games stayed under. Texas lost three of last four games; they got shut out last couple days. Rangers are 12-6 in home series openers. Under is 11-2-2 in their last fifteen games.
Mariners @ Angels
Hernandez is 2-0, 3.81 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over. Seattle is 4-3 in his road starts.
Nolasco is 0-1, 5.25 in his first two starts for the Angels (over 1-1).
Mariners are 10-2 in last 12 games, 3-8 in last 11 road series openers. Six of last eight Seattle road games went over. Angels lost their last ten games; they’re 9-9 in home series openers (won last four). Five of last seven Angel games stayed under total.
Interleague
Padres @ Rays
Perdomo is 0-2, 6.94 in his last two starts (over 8-4). San Diego is 5-3 in his road starts.
Smyly is 2-0, 2.52 in his last four starts; over is 13-4 in his last 17 starts. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in his home starts.
Padres lost five of last seven games; they’re 12-7 in road series openers. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under. Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games; they’re 7-12 in home series openers. Eight of Rays’ last nine games went over total.
Teams’ record when this pitcher starts
Mia-Cin– Phelps 1-1; Finnegan 9-15
Wsh-Colo– Scherzer 14-10; De la Rosa 7-10
NY-Az– Colon 14-9; Ray 7-16
Pitt-SF– Vogelsong 1-3; Moore 1-1/9-12
Bos-Clev– Pomeranz 2-3/9-8; Tomlin 16-5
Tor-NY– Dickey 9-15; Green 2-2
KC-Det– Kennedy 10-13; Norris 2-2
A’s-Tex– Detwiler 1-0; Perez 13-11
Sea-LA– Hernandez 9-6; Nolasco 0-2/9-12
SD-TB– Perdomo 7-5; Smyly 9-13 (3-0 last 3)
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning
Mia-Cin– Phelps 0-2; Finnegan 7-24
Wsh-Colo– Scherzer 8-24; De la Rosa 8-17
NY-Az– Colon 7-23; Ray 5-23
Pitt-SF– Vogelsong 0-4; Moore 5-23
Bos-Clev– Pomeranz 4-22; Tomlin 11-21
Tor-NY– Dickey 6-24; Green 3-4
KC-Det– Kennedy 8-23; Norris 0-4
A’s-Tex– Detwiler 0-1; Perez 10-24
Sea-LA– Hernandez 3-15; Nolasco 10-23
SD-TB– Perdomo 6-12; Smyly 6-22
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Indians (4-0 past four, 6-2 past eight)
The Indians swept the Angels in a four-game set over the weekend, winning by a combined total of 37 runs to 12. Now, they set their sights on the Boston Red Sox Monday afternoon in a makeup of a rainout from back on April 7. Boston uses former Tribe prospect Drew Pomeranz, who continues to search for his first win since being acquired from the San Diego Padres after the All-Star break. Josh Tomlin faces the former first-round pick of the Indians, and he is also looking to slap the brakes on a skid. Tomlin has allowed 14 runs and 17 hits over 8 2/3 innings over the past two outings. He is 2-2 with a 5.94 ERA over six career appearances, including five starts, against the Red Sox.
Coldest team: Angels (0-10 past 10)
The Angels are in a nosedive and they're not showing any signs of pulling out of it. The Halos were broomed in Cleveland in a four-game set over the weekend, their third straight series resulting on the short end of a sweep. The good news is that they return home after a disastrous road trip, but the bad news is that the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez will be awaiting them. The M's have won eight of their past nine, and they're 6-1 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching while going 5-1 in their past six inside the division. On the flip side, the Angels are 3-14 in their past 17 vs. RHP, 2-14 in their past 16 against winning teams and 0-4 in their past four divisional games.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (12-7, 2.80 ERA)
Scherzer is coming off a hard-luck loss against the Cleveland Indians last time out, as he allowed just one run and three hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts over seven innings Aug. 9. He is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a sparkling 0.73 WHIP over 22 innings with 27 punchouts and just four walks. The Nats have won nine of their past 12, and they're 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing overall record. Washington is also 6-2 in Scherzer's past eight road outings, while the Nats are 11-5 in their past 16 road games against left-handed starting pitching.
Coldest pitcher: Josh Tomlin, Indians (11-5, 4.18 ERA)
Tomlin had been on fire earlier in the season, but he has certainly tailed off of late. In his past three outings he has a 9.19 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP over 15 2/3 innings. He hasn't issued a ton of walks, he has just left plenty of pitches over the plate and he has been getting hammered. As mentioned above, he has struggled over his career against the Red Sox. And while he has a 5-2 record in nine home starts, he has a 4.33 ERA and opponents are hitting a robust .275 against him at Progressive Field over 52 innings.
Biggest UNDER run: Royals (11-4 past 15)
The Royals are in the midst of a long-term 'under' run, and the under is 3-1 in their past four against the Tigers, including 2-1 in their three games at Comerica Park this season. The under is a perfect 5-0 in Kansas City's past five against a team with a winning overall record, and 5-1 in their past six road outings against left-handed starting pitching. The under has also cashed in six stragiht starts by Ian Kennedy, and 5-1 in his past six assignments against teams with a winning overall mark.
Biggest OVER run: Rays (8-1 past nine, 11-4 past 15)
The Rays pitching staff has allowed six or more runs in five of the past seven games, and Drew Smyly has been very hittable so another 'over' is likely coming. The over is 11-3-3 in Smyly's past 17 starts overall, and 6-2-1 in his past nine on astroturf. The over is also 4-1 in San Diego's past five against teams with a losing record, 6-2-1 in their past nine interleague games against a southpaw and 18-7-2 in their past 27 interleague games.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Mets
The Mets hit the road trying to get on track after an ugly homestand and inability to piece together a win streak. The Mets have managed a 1-11 record in their past 12 games following a win. They're also just 4-13 in their past 17 against National League West teams, 1-5 in their past six against left-handed starting pitching and 2-7 in their past nine games against teams with an overall losing record. The Diamondbacks have also been struggling, posting an 0-5 mark in their past five home games against teams with a winning record, and 12-29 in their past 41 games overall. New York has won seven of the past nine in the desert, and the Mets have won nine of Bartolo Colon's past 13 outings, including 5-2 in his past seven road assignments.
Betcha didn’t know: Pirates RHP Ryan Vogelsong faces the Giants, his former employer, in Monday's series opener. He has a better knowledge of AT&T Park than his counterpart, Giants LHP Matt Moore, who is making his first career start at his new home park, and just his third with the Giants since coming over in a trade from Tampa Bay. Vogelsong is 9-13 over 40 appearances (36 starts) since the start of the 2013 season in San Francisco, but he has a stellar 3.69 ERA with 179 strikeouts over 221 2/3 innings while posting a .242 opponent batting average.
Biggest public favorite: Rays (-170) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Reds (+120) vs. Marlins
Biggest line move: Angels (+135 to +115) vs. Mariners
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Minnesota Massacre
An incredible offensive display in July by the Minnesota Twins has given way to repeated pitching meltdowns as we reach the middle of August. The Twins dropped an 11-4 decision to the Kansas City Royals on Sunday for their fifth loss in the past six games; they’ve surrendered a whopping 53 runs over that stretch, the main contributor to their 5-1 O/U mark in that span. The Twins are easily the top over team in baseball (72-40-6) heading into a six-game road swing against hosts Atlanta and Kansas City.
Breaking Even
Speaking of the Royals, they’re back to being the closest break-even bet in baseball following Sunday’s one-sided win over Minnesota. The defending World Series champions are a +2 in units won through 117 games, slightly ahead of the San Diego Padres (+6). Kansas City has been one of the safest bets at home (36-21), but has been positively abysmal away from Kauffman Stadium (21-39). The Royals will look to improve that wretched road mark as they open a three-game set Tuesday in Detroit.
Marlins Malaise
The Miami Marlins face an uphill climb in their quest to reach the National League postseason. The Marlins learned Sunday they’ll be without star slugger Giancarlo Stanton for the rest of the season with a groin injury. Miami enters this week’s action a whopping 8 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Nationals, and in a multi-team battle for the second NL wild-card spot. But take heed, Marlins fans: Miami is 5-3 SU and +231 units in eight games with Stanton out of the lineup.
Batting Stats
We’ve said before that Jose Altuve is pivotal to the Houston Astros’ success, and he proved it again Sunday - going 0-for-4 in a 9-2 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros fell to 7-19 SU and 8-17-1 O/U when Altuve - the runaway American League batting leader - fails to record a hit.
Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds continues to be one of the most torrid hitters in the second half, adding a pair of hits in four at-bats Sunday to boost his post-All-Star-break average to .463. The Reds are an impressive 16-11 SU and 12-12-3 O/U over that stretch.
Pitching Stats
Bet against Danny Duffy at your peril. The Royals left-hander opens the week fourth in baseball in units won ($1,172) and is on an impressive stretch in which Kansas City has won each of his last nine starts. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of those nine outings.
Fans at Camden Yards will be treated to quite the showdown Wednesday when Boston Red Sox lefty David Price takes on Orioles ace Chris Tillman. Price has been one of the worst value pitchers in baseball this season (-$941) while Tillman comes in leading the majors in units won ($1,553).
Totals Trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have been an Under bettor’s dream so far this season, going 18-35-3 O/U away from the hitter-friendly confines of Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays embark on a pivotal six-game road trip beginning Monday night at Yankee Stadium.
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Toronto at New York
The Toronto Blue Jays have been an 'Under' bettor’s dream going 46-67-5 O/U on the campaign split between 28-32-2 O/U in front of the home audience, 18-35-3 O/U in an opposing park. Blue Jays look to keep 'Under' gambler's happy Monday when they open a three game set in New York.
Blue Jays have Dickey handling starting duties who will carry a 10-1 'Under' record in his last eleven starts vs Yankees, 6-1 'Under' last seven tossing in the Bronx. Matching that, Dickey has a 9-2-1 'Under' stretch following a team win the previous day, a 7-2 'Under mark when tasked with opening a road series.
Another positive for 'Under' gamblers, the 'Under' has been the right decision in seven of nine meetings this season.