MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, August 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Dodgers @ Pirates
Wood is 3-0, 2.77 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six road starts. Dodgers won his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-2
Cole is 3-1, 3.55 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Pirates are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-5
Dodgers won six of last seven games; under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. LA is 10-2 in last 12 road series openers. Pittsburgh lost six of its last eight games; their last five games went over. Pirates are 9-11 in home series openers.
Diamondbacks @ Mets
Walker is 0-4, 5.86 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Arizona is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-4
Gsellman is 0-2, 10.70 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Mets are 3-5 in hs home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1
Arizona lost five of its last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Snakes are 11-9 in road series openers. Mets lost six of their last seven games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games. New York is 9-7 in last 16 home series openers.
Brewers @ Giants
Davies is 3-2, 2.91 in his last five starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six. Milwaukee is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-5
Stratton is 1-1, 3.93 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Giants won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1
Brewers won six of last seven games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Milwaukee is 10-10 in road series openers. Giants won six of last nine home games; five of last seven Giant games went over the total. SF is 6-14 in home series openers.
American League
Twins @ White Sox
Gee is 48-46, 4.10 in 125 MLB starts; he allowed four runs in 3.1 IP (83 PT) in one start for Texas this year.
Melville is 4-3, 2.70 in 10 AAA starts this year; this is his first ’17 MLB start. He allowed 12 runs in nine IP for the Reds LY (3 games, 2 starts).
Rodon is 0-0, 2.12 in his last four starts (under 3-1). White Sox lost his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1
Fulmer is making his first MLB start; he is 0-2, 8.49 in 8 MLB relief stints (11.2 IP). He is 7-8, 5.61 in 24 AAA starts this year.
Twins are 11-3 in last 14 games; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine. Minnesota is 12-7 in road series openers. Chicago lost six of last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games. White Sox are 8-11 in home series openers.
A’s @ Orioles
Smith is 0-2, 5.09 in six starts this year (under 4-1-1). A’s are 1-1 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1
Jimenez is 1-1, 4.43 in his last four starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten. Orioles are 6-3 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-10-2
A’s lost eight of last 12 games; their last three games stayed under. Oakland is 6-13 in road series openers. Baltimore lost eight of last 12 games; under is 7-3 in their last 10 home games. Orioles are 3-6 in last nine home series openers.
Red Sox @ Indians
Rodriguez is 0-0, 4.22 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Boston is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8
Clevinger is 3-1, 3.62 in his last six starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Indians are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-4-2
Red Sox are 14-3 in last 17 games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Boston is 9-11 in road series openers. Cleveland is 8-2 in its last ten games; under is 6-1 in their last seven home games. Indians are 10-9 in home series openers.
Rangers @ Angels
Hamels is 4-0, 3.44 in his last five starts (over 10-4-1). Texas is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-0-2
Skaggs is 0-2, 2.66 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Angels are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-2
Texas won eight of last 11 games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Rangers are 8-11 in road series openers. Angels won nine of last 11 games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Halos are 7-12 in home series openers.
Interleague
Mariners @ Braves
Albers allowed one run in five IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 3-1 win over the Orioles. Seattle’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Foltynewicz is 1-3, 11.02 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Braves are 7-0 in his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-6
Mariners won four of last five games; under is 5-3 in their last eight. Seattle is 8-2 in last ten road series openers. Atlanta lost five of last six home games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Braves are 9-10 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
LA-Pitt: Wood 15-4; Cole 15-10
Az-NY: Walker 10-10 (0-7 last 7); Gsellman 7-8
Mil-SF: Davies 16-9; Stratton 2-1
American League
Minn-Chi: Gee 0-0 Melville 0-0; Rodon 3-6 Fulmer 0-0
A’s-Balt: Smith 3-3; Jimenez 10-10
Bos-Clev: Rodriguez 10-6; Clevinger 8-7
Tex-LA: Hamels 9-6; Skaggs 4-4
Interleague
Sea-Atl: Albers 1-0; Foltynewicz 13-10
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
LA-Pitt: Wood 3-19; Cole 9-25
Az-NY: Walker 6-20; Gsellman 8-15
Mil-SF: Davies 8-25; Stratton 1-3
American League
Minn-Chi: Gee 0-0 Melville 0-0; Rodon 3-9 Fulmer 0-0
A’s-Balt: Smith 3-6; Jimenez 6-20
Bos-Clev: Rodriguez 4-16; Clevinger 1-15
Tex-LA: Hamels 6-15; Skaggs 4-8
Interleague
Sea-Atl: Albers 1-1; Foltynewicz 5-23
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 73-52 AL, favorites +$227
AL @ NL– 67-60 NL, favorites +$204
Total: 133-119 AL, favorites +$431
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 63-61-3
AL @ NL: Over 67-54-7
Total: Over 130-115-10
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Brewers (6-1 last seven) at Giants
Milwaukee continues its NL West road trip after taking two of three from Colorado. The Brewers’ offense woke up in the final two victories by scoring 14 runs, while eclipsing the six-run mark in six of the past eight games. The Crew is still within striking distance of a Wild Card spot in the National League, entering Monday’s action 2 ½ games behind Arizona for the final playoff position.
The Brewers face the struggling Giants at AT&T Park for the start of a three-game series before heading down to Los Angeles to take on the first place Dodgers on Friday. Zach Davies heads to the mound for the opener by the Bay as the Milwaukee right-hander owns a perfect 7-0 record away from Miller Park this season. The Brewers are 9-3 in Davies’ 12 road starts, while allowing only a single run in his last three away assignments.
Coldest team: Mets (1-6 last seven) vs. Diamondbacks
New York dropped the finale of its three-game series to Miami to fall to 1-4 on its current homestand. The Mets have won only six of 19 games this month, including a 2-8 record at Citi Field. New York were listed as a heavy favorite with Jacob deGrom on the mound on Sunday, but the Mets will flip to an underdog against Arizona on Monday. However, the Mets have slumped to a 1-9 record in the past 10 games in the ‘dog role.
Robert Gsellman will look to get the Mets on track in spite of failing to win in his past four starts dating back to June. The Mets will be seeking revenge against the D-backs after getting swept in Arizona in May, while dropping eight of the past nine meetings since the start of 2016.
Hottest pitcher: Alex Wood, Dodgers (14-1, 2.30 ERA)
It seems like anybody that takes the mound for Los Angeles can be listed in this category on any given night. Wood continues to impress, although he isn’t the ace of the Dodgers’ rotation as the southpaw is unbeaten in his last six away starts. The former Braves’ left-hander has allowed a total five earned runs in his past seven road outings, while tossing five scoreless innings and striking out 11 in a 12-1 trouncing of the Pirates in May.
Coldest pitcher: Taijuan Walker, Diamondbacks (6-7, 3.38 ERA)
The last time Walker won a decision came on June 21 at Colorado, as the D-backs are riding a seven-game skid in his past seven starts. Four of those defeats have come away from Chase Field, including a 9-5 setback at Houston, while allowing five earned runs for the second consecutive start. The D-backs as a team aren’t too hot themselves after getting swept at Minnesota this past weekend, while losing six of their past seven road contests.
Biggest OVER run: Giants (5-1-1 last seven)
Although San Francisco cashed the UNDER for the first time in seven games on Sunday in a 5-2 home defeat to Philadelphia, the Giants have seen plenty of wild games of late. In the first three contests against the Phillies, San Francisco scored 24 runs, which is one more than the amount of runs posted in the seven previous games combined. Chris Stratton heads to the mound for the Giants in their opener against the Brewers, as he is coming off a career-high 10 strikeouts in 6.2 innings of a road victory at Washington his last time out.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (7-4 last 11)
Oakland avoided the sweep at Houston on Sunday as all three games with the Astros finished UNDER the total. The mighty Astros’ offense was limited to eight runs the entire weekend, which is in stark contrast the 21 runs allowed to Kansas City in its previous series. The A’s split a four-game series with the Orioles at home earlier this month, as Oakland scored five runs or more in each of the final three contests. Chris Smith has hit the UNDER in four of six starts for the A’s, including both road outings at Seattle and Toronto.
Matchup to watch: Rangers vs. Angels
The AL Wild Card race is tightening up by the day as the Yankees remain the leader in spite of losing two of three to the Red Sox. Right behind New York is a tie between the Twins and Angels for the second Wild Card position, while the Rangers are 2 ½ games behind. Texas suffered a costly home loss on Sunday by falling to the woeful White Sox, 3-2 as -200 favorites to split the four-game series.
The Angels finished off a terrific road trip at 7-2, capped off by a pair of victories at Baltimore. Tyler Skaggs faces the Rangers for the third time this season as the Angels are 2-0 in the southpaw’s first outings against Texas. Skaggs is 0-2 in three starts this month, as the Angels scored just one run in the two losses.
Cole Hamels counters for Texas, as the left-hander tries to improve on his 8-1 record after winning his last three starts. Hamels has dominated the Angels in two starts this season, giving up one earned run in 14.2 innings of work, although Texas is 1-1 in those games. The Rangers have won five of nine meetings with the Angels this season, while making their first trip to Anaheim since taking two of three back in April.
Betcha didn’t know: The underdogs ruled on Sunday as five teams closed at +150 or higher and picked up victories. The Marlins (+165), Phillies (+210), Athletics (+210), Royals (+155), and White Sox (+175) were all winners, as Oakland and Kansas City both avoided sweeps. The biggest underdog listed on Monday is Pittsburgh (+150) against Los Angeles, as the Pirates were listed as this high of a home ‘dog only once this season, coming against the Giants on July 2 in a 5-3 defeat.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-170) at Pirates
Biggest public underdog: Red Sox (+120) at Indians
Biggest line move: Angels (-125 to -145) vs. Rangers
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Arizona (-135) at New York; Total: 9
We start in the Big Apple with the Diamondbacks and Mets. Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Snakes against Robert Gsellman for the Mets. Things have suddenly gotten interesting in the NL Wild Card mix. The Rockies and Diamondbacks have both faltered lately and the Brewers are only 2.5 games in back of Arizona. The Cardinals are four games out. This is a big series for the Mets, who just squandered some opportunities in Minnesota.
Walker has had a solid season in Arizona. Over 20 starts and 115 innings, he has a 3.83 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP. He’s got pretty average peripherals across the board. His strikeout rate is pretty average and his walk rate is a tad high, but everything else looks reasonable. Walker is one of those guys where you know what you’re going to get more often than not. It won’t be earth-shattering, but it won’t be enough to bury the team. That’s a good skill to have when it comes to handicapping baseball this season. There are a lot of really below average pitchers out there and a lot of guys giving up boatloads of dongs.
Robert Gsellman is one of those below average pitchers giving up a lot of dongs. In 15 starts and three relief outings, Gsellman has a 5.98 ERA with a 5.18 FIP and a 4.68 xFIP. Command has not been his strong suit, with 14 HR allowed in 81.1 innings of work and also a .321 BABIP against. It has been a real challenge for Gsellman to have success with a low strikeout rate and bad command.
Unfortunately, it has been a challenge lately for Arizona. The offense has regressed in high-leverage plate appearances and the pitching staff has struggled a bit as well. Laying -135 on the road all the way east in New York City is a hard thing to do with the Diamondbacks right now. Backing Gsellman and the inconsistent Mets isn’t easy either.
Those looking for some kind of action on this game will want to consider the first five over or ‘Yes’ on a first inning run. Gsellman has allowed a .282/.343/.537 slash the first time through the order, so there may be value in fading him early. If Walker struggles, that would obviously help as well.
Boston at Cleveland (-125); Total: 9.5
In what has been a lost MLB season for me, I was thoroughly upset to not advocate fading the Indians yesterday. It was the end of a long road trip in which the Indians went into yesterday’s game with an 8-2 record. It was a total flat spot and it cashed a nice dog ticket for those that hit the Royals at home. The Indians return home for the first time since August 9 to host the Boston Red Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez will go for the Red Sox and Mike Clevinger will get the nod for the Indians.
Rodriguez is having a solid season. He has a 3.97 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 4.35 xFIP in 93 innings of work. He also has 102 strikeouts in those 93 innings. Rodriguez gave up seven of his 41 runs in his June 1 start against Baltimore. He allowed four home runs in that start, so he only has allowed eight home runs in his other appearances. Lately, he’s seen a bit of LOB% regression, so he’s given up four runs in three of his last five starts. One thing that could be a challenge for him today is how patient the Indians offense is. Rodriguez works some very deep counts, so it could be a five-and-fly type of game. He’s only worked six innings in two of his last seven starts. The Red Sox bullpen has been used a lot lately, so an early exit could be problematic.
Mike Clevinger has a 3.75 ERA with a 4.22 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP on the season. A little bit of regression has crept into his metrics. He induces a lot of weak contact, but his BABIP and LOB% have regressed a bit, so his numbers look a lot more reasonable at this point. He hasn’t started since August 12 and his previous start before that was July 31. He’s had a strange few weeks and he’s kind of a quirky guy to begin with, so I think this unconventional schedule has thrown him out of whack. He had issues with control and command in his relief appearance on August 17. He had a terrible inning of relief on August 6.
I’m not sure what to expect from Clevinger tonight against a pretty decent lineup. Initially, my thought was going to be to look at the under with a lean to the Red Sox. I’m not sure on the total, but I would still lean to the Red Sox. The Indians just came off of a long, taxing trip. Kids are going back to school and a lot of Indians have had new additions to their families this season. On the road, you’re just a baseball player. When you get home, you’re a husband, father, and a baseball player. Factor all of that into an 11-day, four-city road trip and the recent struggles of Clevinger and a flat effort wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Seattle at Atlanta (-105); Total: 9.5
Southpaw Andrew Albers makes his second start for the Mariners in this interleague tilt against the Atlanta Braves. Mike Foltynewicz will take the mound for the home team. Albers looked really good in the Braves system with a 2.61/2.58/3.05 pitcher slash in 17 starts and nine relief appearances before getting traded to Seattle. He worked five innings and allowed one run on six hits with four strikeouts and a walk in his Seattle debut. His MLB performance has been underwhelming overall, with a 4.25/4.62/4.38 in 84.2 career innings dating back to 2013 when he made 10 starts for the Twins.
Guys like Albers are really hard to gauge. His swinging strike rates at the MLB and MiLB levels are not exciting. He allows a lot of balls in play, so we’re required to bet on positive variance in a lot of those instances. That isn’t something I’m comfortable with because you just don’t know. When you boil it all down, you don’t know in any game, really, but guys that at least get swings and misses and miss bats have fewer potential problems (balls in play).
Mike Foltynewicz has been struggling. He has a 4.75 ERA all of the sudden with a 4.52 FIP and a 4.58 xFIP. Over his last two starts, Foltynewicz has allowed 14 runs on 16 hits in just six innings of work. He also allowed five runs on seven hits in his July 31 start. These blips on the radar happen and can be ERA killers. What you have to do is decide if these are just outliers with mechanical issues or if it is something more. The fact that Foltynewicz has also walked seven in those last two starts is a concern to me. His velocity readings looked good and his pitch usage wasn’t any different than normal, so it’s probably just one of those things.
The Mariners lose a hitter tonight, which is more significant for them than other AL teams going to the NL because it forces Nelson Cruz to play the outfield. That’s bad. Add everything up and it looks like I’ll be interested in the Braves tonight.
Texas at Los Angeles (-145); Total: 8.5
A big line move in this AL West battle between the Rangers and the Angels features heavy action on the home team. There isn’t a whole lot of love in the investment community for Cole Hamels. That’s not a big surprise, since his strikeout rate has dropped in a huge way and he has a 3.48 ERA with a 4.52 FIP and a 4.74 xFIP. The statistical profile for Hamels just doesn’t look good and it seems like he was priced on reputation in this start. The Angels are coming back from a long road trip that took them to the East Coast, but the market was ready to pounce.
Tyler Skaggs has had a rough road during his MLB career. He’s back from Tommy John surgery now and has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.81 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP in his 44.2 innings of work. He’s got some decent peripherals overall, though a high BABIP against could point to some command troubles. His rehab starts were pretty disappointing, but he’s been fine at the MLB level. Fading the Rangers against lefties makes some sense as well with how many left-handed bats are the focus of that lineup.
The market has eliminated any value on this game and it speaks to how important looking at those overnight lines is.
Milwaukee (-125) at San Francisco; Total: 8
The Brewers are playing well once again. After playing well in Colorado, they’ll move on to San Francisco in hopes of pushing for one of those wild card spots. Zach Davies takes the mound today for the Brewers and Chris Stratton will go for the Giants. As the Brewers have gotten back on track, Zach Davies has been a big part of the fun. After some early-season struggles, Davies has a 4.26 ERA with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. The peripherals still aren’t stellar, but Davies has gotten back to what works best for him. He’s inducing a lot of weak contact and commanding the ball well. Davies has allowed 17 HR on the season, but he has only allowed seven since May 30 with a 3.65 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, and a 4.44 xFIP. He’s getting more ground balls and he’s keeping the ball in the park, so he’s been able to get by with the low strikeout rate.
AT&T Park should be great for him, so this is a pretty good spot to back Davies.
Chris Stratton has a 4.91 ERA with a 3.57 FIP and a 4.59 xFIP in three starts and three relief outings. He has pretty uninspiring numbers across the board, but he does have a decent command profile in his statistics with low HR/FB% marks at most of his stops. He hasn’t stranded a whole lot of runners throughout his career. It doesn’t help anybody on the Giants staff that this team is really poor defensively. Stratton seems to be one of those guys that would be affected more by that than most.
I’ll lay it and play it with Milwaukee tonight.
High-powered Dodgers face Pirates
By: StatFox.com
The Pirates will be hoping to earn a big series victory against the Dodgers, and that starts with a meeting at PNC Park on Monday.
The Dodgers have been the most dominant team in baseball all season, and they have to be starting to think about the postseason at this point. They have flamed out in the playoffs before, so they know that everything they are doing right now doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. An incredible regular season is surely memorable, but it means nothing without winning the World Series. As for the Pirates, this team is in desperation mode at this point in the season. Pittsburgh is currently battling for the top spot in the NL Central, but the team is behind the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals right now. Not much separates the four teams, but the Pirates need to put together a nice winning streak soon. A sweep at the hands of the Dodgers is the last thing that Pittsburgh needs, but it’s always a possibility with the way that Los Angeles has been playing. The starters in this Monday night matchup are going to be LHP Alex Wood (14-1 2.30 ERA, 122 K) for the Dodgers and RHP Gerrit Cole (10-8, 4.04 ERA, 141 K) for the Pirates. The Dodgers might appear to have the edge there, but Cole is very talented and can certainly come through with a big performance here.
The Dodgers are on fire right now and Alex Wood is going to do his best to earn them a victory on Monday. Wood has been absolutely ridiculous this season and he hasn’t necessarily slowed down lately. He has allowed only four earned runs over his past three starts, and he has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his past 10 starts. Wood also struck out 11 batters in five shutout inning against the Pirates on May 8, so he knows what it takes to get it done against this lineup. Expect him to at least be solid on Monday. As for the offense in this game, 2B Logan Forsythe is a guy that might be able to produce here. He is 3-for-3 against Cole in his career, so he clearly likes what he sees when going against the righty. Forsythe also happens to be a guy that hasn’t done too much for the Dodgers this year, so it’d be big to get some unexpected production from him. Also, OF Yasiel Puig is 5-for-9 with two doubles and an RBI against Cole. He can also spark this team by coming through at the plate.
The Pirates aren’t in a great position, but they can still make it to the postseason if they put together a nice winning streak. Cole can get it started on Monday, as the righty is still one of the more talented pitchers in the game. He has struggled to put it together over the past few years, but the ability is there. He also has pitched pretty well as of late, as he has seen his ERA drop from 4.51 to 4.04 over his past nine outings. He has also struck out eight or more batters in four of the past eight games, so he clearly has his stuff working right now. It’d be big if he can turn in a quality start in this one. On offense, it’ll be OFs Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte that will be counted on to come through here. McCutchen has had a very good season for Pittsburgh, and Marte has started to come on strong as of late. It would not be surprising if both do something to drive in runs here, but it is going to be tough against a pitcher like Wood.