MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, August 28th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Sims is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts (under 3-2). Braves split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Nola is 0-2, 11.12 in his last two starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Phillies are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-7

Braves lost three of last four games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Atlanta is 0-4 in its last four road series openers. Phillies are 5-4 in last nine games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Philly is 6-14 in home series openers.

Marlins @ Nationals
Urena is 3-0, 3.38 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-2 in his last eight. Miami is 9-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-3

Jackson is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts (under 6-1). Washington is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-2

Marlins are 13-3 in last 16 games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Miami is 10-11 in road series openers. Washington is 11-6 in its last 17 games; their last three games went over. Nationals are 13-9 in home series openers.

Pirates @ Cubs
Williams is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Pirates are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Montgomery is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; his last four starts went over. Cubs are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1

Pirates are 5-10 in last 15 games; over is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Bucs are 8-14 in road series openers. Cubs lost three of last four games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13. Chicago is 9-12 in home series openers.

Giants @ Padres
Samardzija is 4-1, 3.89 in his last six starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Giants are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-13-6

Chacin is 0-2, 5.23 in his last four starts; under is 8-4-1 in his last 13. Padres are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-4

Giants are 3-13 in last 15 road games; six of their last seven games overall stayed under. SF is 2-8 in last ten road series openers. Padres are 1-4 in their last five games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games overall. San Diego is 13-8 in home series openers.

American League

Indians @ New York
Kluber is 4-1, 1.93 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Indians are 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-2

Severino is 6-1, 3.35 in his last seven starts; his last six starts went over. New York is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-3

Indians are 13-4 in their last 17 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. Tribe is 11-11 in road series openers. New York is 9-4 in its last 13 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games. NY is 13-7 in home series openers.

Mariners @ Orioles
Gonzales is 0-1, 6.23 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Seattle split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1

Tillman is 0-2, 14.66 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Orioles are 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-11-3

Mariners are 3-4 in last seven games; under is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Seattle is 10-2 in last 12 road series openers. Orioles won five of last six games; six of their last eight games stayed under. Baltimore is 14-7 in home series openers.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Pomeranz is 3-0, 1.59 in his last five starts; over is 9-5-1 in his last 15 starts. Boston is 5-1 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-9

Stroman is 1-1, 4.79 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Toronto is 8-2 in his last ten home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-1

Boston lost its last four games; under is 6-3 in its last nine games. Red Sox are 9-12 in road series openers. Blue Jays lost seven of last nine games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. Toronto is 8-13 in home series openers.

Rays @ Royals
Pruitt is 0-2, 5.96 in his last four starts (under 6-1). Tampa Bay is 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Kennedy is 0-3, 8.75 in his last five starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Royals are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-14-3

Tampa Bay won five of last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Rays are 13-8 in road series openers. Royals lost their last four games; they haven’t scored a run in 34 innings. KC is 11-10 in home series openers- under is 4-2 in their last six games.

A’s @ Angels
Gossett is 2-0, 4.00 in his last three road starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts overall. A’s are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7

Heaney is 0-0, 8.10 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Angels lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

A’s won five of last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Oakland is 6-14 in road series openers. Angels lost five of last seven games; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Halos are 7-14 in home series openers.

Interleague

Tigers @ Rockies
Zimmerman is 0-3, 10.45 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Detroit is 3-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-14

Senzatela is 0-1, 5.14 in his last three starts; over is 13-3 in his last 16 starts. Rockies are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-2

Tigers are 3-10 in last 13 games; their last three games stayed under. Detroit is 4-10 in last 14 road series openers. Colorado won three of its last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Rockies are 16-4 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Sims 2-3; Nola 10-11
Mia-Wsh: Urena 15-6; Jackson 4-3
Pitt-Chi: Williams 9-11; Montgomery 4-5
SF-SD: Samardzija 11-15; Chacin 13-13 (0-4 last 4)

American League
Clev-NY: Kluber 14-8; Severino 15-10
Sea-Balt: Gonzales 2-2; Tillman 5-11
Bos-Tor: Pomeranz 17-8; Stroman 16-10
TB-KC: Pruitt 2-5; Kennedy 12-12
A’s-LAA: Gossett 4-7; Heaney 0-2

Interleague
Det-Colo: Zimmerman 9-16; Senzatela 12-7

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Sims 2-5; Nola 5-21
Mia-Wsh: Urena 3-21; Jackson 3-7
Pitt-Chi: Williams 7-20; Montgomery 2-9
SF-SD: Samardzija 11-26; Chacin 11-24

American League
Clev-NY: Kluber 4-22; Severino 5-25
Sea-Balt: Gonzales 1-4; Tillman 7-16
Bos-Tor: Pomeranz 7-25; Stroman 5-26
TB-KC: Pruitt 3-7; Kennedy 6-24
A’s-LAA: Gossett 0-11; Heaney 0-2

Interleague
Det-Colo: Zimmerman 9-25; Senzatela 8-19

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 70-63 NL, favorites +$344
Total: 140-124 AL, favorites +$447

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-56-7
Total: Over 136-121-10

Armadillosports.com

Monday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Marlins (7-1 last seven, 13-3 last 16)

The Fish have climbed three games over .500 for the first time in 2017 after completing a sweep of the Padres. Giancarlo Stanton crushed his 50th homer to snap a 2-2 tie in the 8th, as if the run they're on is destined by some force of nature. Miami swept its second consecutive home series and improved to 10-1 at Marlins Park in August with a single game remaining, but they're now going on the road to continue their unlikely playoff push.

Because it doesn't get terribly crowded at the yard down in Miami, the Marlins were actually just as good out of the suitcase as they were at home until this month, which should serve them well since their final road trip of the season takes to Arizona and Colorado, the teams currently residing in the wild card slots they're attempting to chase down. Miami is just 2-5 at Nationals Park this season, but have managed to avoid being swept in each of their first two trips. They'll look to get off to a good start in the series behind Jose Urena (12-5, 3.68 ERA), who is unbeaten thus far this month. Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.25) returns from a stint on the disabled list due to neck inflammation . Stanton has homered twice in 15 career at-bats against Scherzer, batting .267, but the Fish have managed just two earned runs in 16 innings over three starts thus. Scherzer has held Miami to a .127 average thus far.

Coldest team: Royals (0-4 last four)

Normally it takes a longer losing streak to make this category, but considering the Royals haven't scored since Thursday, we'll make an exception. Since rallying to stun Colorado on Eric Hosmer's walk-off 3-run homer in the bottom of the ninth, Kansas City has actually scored one fewer run than that blast provided despite 36 innings worth of at-bats. They'll take a 34-inning scoreless stretch into tonight's home date against the Rays. This group dug itself a hole by struggling at the plate, so it's no surprise that they've now been shut out an MLB-high 13 times and are back under .500 after a scoreless run through what was probably the most important series of their season. They'll hope to find a breakthrough against Tampa Bay's Austin Pruitt, a rookie who they've only seen as a reliever back on May 8. Pruitt gave up three runs in two innings, but only one of them was earned.

Hottest pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees (11-5, 3.10 ERA)

The Yankees have won eight of nine starts that their 23-year-old righty, increasing the likelihood that manager Joe Girardi would go with him over Masahiro Tanaka in a winner-take-all wild card game. You can't argue with the results, especially since the Dominican righty has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of the last eight. Currently third in the AL in ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.10) and fourth in strikeouts with 183, Severino gets an opportunity to demonstrate how he'd respond in a big moment by squaring off with former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.65) and the defending AL champs, who have outscored opponents 33-6 over their current four-game winning streak. Kluber is 9-2 with a 1.87 ERA since June 1, so he's worthy of this category too. This is the type of matchup we'd see in a Game 1 of an ALDS or ALCS. Bookmakers have this as a toss-up and have set the total at 7.5.

Coldest pitcher: Chris Tillman, Orioles (1-7, 7.75 ERA)

Despite being banished to the bulllpen after consecutive starts where he was roughed up for 15 runs (13 earned), the veteran righty put in over five inningsof work against the Angels last time out and is back in the rotation when necessary. Unfortunately for Baltimore, the Birds have dropped seven of the last eight games in which he's made an appearance, his ERA is astronomical and he comes off a game where he walked a season-high six batters. Can things get worse? You know the answer to that is always yes. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia are a combined 26-for-69 (.377) with five home runs and 15 RBI.

Biggest OVER run: Cubs (7-3-1 last 11)

If it weren't for that triple play they were unfortunate enough to have go against them, Chicago would've been a part of another game to the high side. Instead, the Cubs lost 6-3 and actually dropped a series in Philadelphia, finishing their six-game road trip at 3-3. Chicago averaged just two runs per game in its defeats and 13 in victories, which makes it hard to anticipate just how they'll react to returning to Wrigley Field on what may be a rainy night. Lefty Mike Montgomery (4-6, 3.43) spun a scoreless six innings last time out, while Pirates righty Trevor Williams pitched eight shutout innings to help foil Rich Hill's masterpiece. This over run may be in trouble.

Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (7-2 last nine, 16-6 last 22)

Colorado's six-game road trip is finally over and it managed to win three of the last four. The Rockies have managed over four runs in a single game only three times in the last 19 games, and they needed a great effort from Jon Gray and the bullpen just to survive the latest low-scoring effort in Sunday's 3-0 win. Their cushion for that second NL wild card remained just 3.5 games over Milwaukee thanks to a pair of upsets over the Dodgers, so the pressure to start swinging the bats better is certainly a factor. Colorado went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position in Atlanta and have faced seeing key cogs like Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story suffer through prolonged slumps. Today's series opener against the Tigers kicks off a nine-game homestand that features division rivals Arizona and San Francisco coming through town next, but there's no chance anyone is looking ahead or concentrating on anything other than busting out of their collective funk at the plate. Getting back home may help, as may the presence of Detroit righty Jordan Zimmermmann (7-11, 6.11), who has surrendered seven earned runs in three straight starts.

Matchup to watch: Indians at Yankees

Beyond the Kluber-Severino matchup that gets to be the best thing about Monday night's baseball card, there's also the fun of watching Joe Girardi and Terry Francona play chess.

These games are probably going to be lengthy and feature a lot of bullpen work, which should work in the Yankees favor but may not be as lopsided as one would think. Although New York has assembled the deepest, most high quality bullpen in baseball, some of the pieces have been off of late. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and David Robertson have each made pitches the Yankees wish they could have back. The Tribe won't have Andrew Miller available since he's on the DL, so they're relying on Kluber and tomorrow's starter, Trevor Bauer, to work deep into games so that they dont have to be reliant on a depleted bullpen.

Cleveland's Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley remain out, while the Yanks just got Starlin Castro and Greg Bird back in the lineup. This is a clear opportunity for New York to put together an impressive series that sends the message that they're prepared to play with the AL's elite and won't be scrambling with the teams fighting for the second playoff start. Managing a young team, it's important for Girardi to get them to believe while also ensuring the atmosphere in the Bronx becomes an advantage.

Despite not being the healthier team, the Indians have been dominant of late and will throw their ace out there first. From Cleveland's standpoint, if it can start planting seeds of doubt in the Yankees minds by getting the better of them in a series just before September, it could come in handy next month.

Betcha didn't know: Angels lefty Andrew Heaney (0-0, 8.10) is making his third start back from Tommy John surgery and has allowed seven home runs over his first two starts despite working only 10 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .341 against him, so it remains to be seen whether this is all rust-related or if the former No. 9 overall pick just isn't physically capable of being effective on this level. The Angels, still in the thick of the wild card race, can't afford a prolonged slump since a loss tonight would knock the team back down to .500.

Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-215) vs. Marlins

Biggest public underdog: Rays (+114) at Royals

Biggest line move: Blue Jays (+105 to -115) at Cardinals

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Seattle at Baltimore (-120); Total: 11

Runs must be in the forecast at Camden Yards tonight because the 11-run total is the second-highest on the board. It makes sense with Marco Gonzales and Chris Tillman set to square off. There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of pitching prowess on tap for this one. Gonzales has allowed 17 runs on 32 hits in his 20.2 innings of work this season with a 13/5 K/BB ratio. He has allowed seven HR in that small sample size and hasn’t had much success at the MLB level in his career.

Chris Tillman is having an awful year. He has a 7.75 ERA with a 6.49 FIP and a 5.54 xFIP in his 74.1 innings of work. Major regression on balls in play and with his K/BB ratio has led to what is the worst season of his career. Tillman has allowed 18 HR in those 74.1 innings after allowing 19 HR in 172 innings last season. Whether he’s just hurt or has simply stopped being effective remains to be seen, but he has been really awful this season.

My angle in this game would be to play the Orioles, in spite of Tillman’s horrible numbers. At least he has a track record of being better than this. Gonzales hasn’t done much at the MLB level in his career and missed the entire 2016 season with an injury. The 92 innings he has worked this season are the most he has worked since 2014, so it’s fair to wonder how fresh his arm is at this stage of the game. The Orioles rate in the middle of the pack against lefties because they simply don’t draw walks, but they rank seventh in SLG. Considering Gonzales’s command woes, this is a decent spot to back the chalky home team.

Cleveland at New York (-105); Total: 7

Corey Kluber and Luis Severino meet with a line of pick ‘em at Yankee Stadium today. The market hasn’t really made a move one way or another on this game. Early action at Pinnacle has crept in on the Indians, so they could be the sharper side in this one. I won’t be backing the Indians here. With what looks like a low run environment, the Yankees have the upper hand with the strength of their bullpen. Cleveland has a lot of injuries to left-handed hitters right now, so they’re better off facing lefties than righties.

It is really hard to step in front of Corey Kluber, though. The 31-year-old has a 2.65 ERA with a 2.56 FIP and a 2.49 xFIP in his 152.2 innings of work. He has 208 strikeouts in just 152.2 innings. The run that he is currently on is absolutely spectacular. Since returning from the disabled list on June 1, Kluber has a 1.87 ERA with a 1.96 FIP and a 2.05 xFIP in 115.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 167 and walked 19. He has allowed a home run in eight straight starts, but those have generally been the only blemishes of his outings. In those 16 starts, Kluber has struck out at least 10 on 12 separate occasions.

Luis Severino is no slouch himself. In 156.2 innings of work, Severino has a 3.10 ERA with a 3.04 FIP and a 3.10 xFIP. He’s struck out 183 in 156.2 innings of work. Like Kluber, home runs have been the only issue, with 16 allowed in those 156.2 frames. Severino has allowed zero or one earned run in seven of his last eight outings. In the other outing, he allowed eight earned runs, 10 total, on eight hits in 4.1 innings. So, he’s really pitching extremely well right now also.

Just sit back and enjoy this one with two of the best at their respective crafts going head-to-head.

Boston at Toronto (-115); Total: 8.5

Drew Pomeranz and the Red Sox have seen a flipped favorite situation in this game, as the Toronto Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman are now favored. Pomeranz has some signs of regression in his stat line with a 3.18 ERA, a 3.62 FIP, and a 3.84 xFIP. His 80.4 percent LOB% is the primary reason why his ERA is so much lower than his advanced metrics. He’s still racking up strikeouts and has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, but bettors are looking for some regression in terms of sequencing.

Ironically, I’m looking for the same from Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a 77.7 percent LOB% without the strikeout rate of Pomeranz. He has a 3.17 ERA with a 3.87 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP, so we’re basically looking at the same story for both pitchers. There are two primary differences for me. The first is that Stroman is an extreme ground ball pitcher, which keeps him from allowing a lot of extra-base hits, which are how runs get scored in today’s MLB. The second is that the Blue Jays have a bit of a platoon advantage against Pomeranz with their more productive bats swinging from the right side.

Those are the reasons behind the line move. In that respect, I can certainly understand and appreciate it. I’m also a bit concerned with Pomeranz from a health standpoint. He has made one fewer start than Stroman, but has worked 28.2 fewer innings. He’s just not as efficient or economical. That makes it hard to back him in individual starts.

I won’t have a ticket on this game, but will watch to see if Boston gets to a buy point in the +115 range.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-115); Total: 10

The Kansas City Royals are officially done in the AL Central and getting swept by the Indians dealt a significant blow to their Wild Card hopes as well. Per Fangraphs, the Royals dropped 7.2 percent in terms of playoff probability by getting blown out by the Indians. On July 30, the Royals were 60.8 percent to make the playoffs. They are now at 16.7 percent four weeks later.

They’ll have to regroup with the Tampa Bay Rays in town. The Rays sit three games back in the Wild Card chase, as everybody looks to track down the Minnesota Twins. Austin Pruitt takes the hill for the Rays, as they continue to keep Brent Honeywell in the minors. Ian Kennedy will go for the Royals.

This will be Pruitt’s eighth start of the season and 25th appearance overall. He’s got a 5.76 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP. He has allowed 11 runs on 18 hits over his last 10.2 innings of work. Last time out, the Blue Jays hit four dingers off of Pruitt. Since joining the rotation full-time on July 28, Pruitt has a 5.29/5.60/5.02 pitcher slash. He has only 22 strikeouts in 34 innings of work. There really isn’t a whole lot to love in this profile.

There isn’t much to love about Ian Kennedy either. Kennedy has a 5.09 ERA with a 5.36 FIP and a 5.12 xFIP in his 127.1 innings of work. He’s seen a huge regression in his sequencing metrics. Last year, Kennedy had an 83.1 percent LOB% and posted a 3.68 ERA with a 4.67 FIP and xFIP. This season, Kennedy has a 69.6 percent LOB%, so his ERA is up to 5.09. His advanced metrics are also up with a higher walk rate and more home runs allowed.

I don’t know if the move is a fade on the Royals after a brutal weekend or if it is a position on fading Ian Kennedy. I’m pretty much on board with either rationale and would take the Rays if I had to tonight.

San Francisco at San Diego (-105); Total: 7.5

The Giants and Padres have to keep playing out the string and that’s what they will do tonight at AT&T Park. The Giants will send Jeff Samardzija out to the mound against Jhoulys Chacin. Samardzija has been a guy to watch all season long with his 4.67 ERA and low FIP and xFIP. He’s not come close to looking like the guy that has a 3.52 FIP and a 3.45 xFIP because his command has been so bad this year. It doesn’t help that the Giants are among the league’s worst defensive teams when a ball does get put in play.

I’m not real thrilled with backing Samardzija right now. Since the start of August, he only has 24 strikeouts in 32.1 innings of work. His GB% is 37.3 percent, which is well below his 42 percent rate for the season. It looks like some fatigue may be settling in. If he’s not missing bats, he’s definitely not worth looking at and it appears that he’s run into some trouble in that regard. He’s not on my fade list, per se, but you can bet that I’ll be looking very closely at those strikeout totals and batted ball distributions.

Jhoulys Chacin was experiencing some swelling in his pitching hand after his last start, so there’s a bit of an unknown with that. He has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP on the season in his 147 innings. This year marks Chacin’s highest workload at the MLB level since 2013, so he’ll be a guy to watch for signs of fatigue as well. We may be seeing some already. Since the All-Star Break, Chacin has walked 24 batted in 45 innings of work. He’s gotten very fortunate on balls in play with a .244 BABIP against. He’s got a 3.60/4.53/5.46 pitcher slash in those 45 innings, so there are some clear worries about him as well.

This may be a spot to take an over. Both pitchers seem to be depreciating assets and it is a low total of 7.5, so it wouldn’t take much to inch this one over the number.

Monday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels

Odds: Oakland (+152) vs L.A (-162); Total 9.5

The L.A Angels are trying to do everything they can these days to get one of those coveted wildcard spots in the American League. L.A enters play tonight 1.5 games behind Minnesota for that final spot, but there is a host of others just behind L.A that are in the picture as well.

Thankfully for Angels fans, the Oakland A's aren't one of those teams and this three-game set to begin this week is a solid opportunity for the Angels to pick up a few wins.

They are listed as heavy home favorites tonight, but is laying -160+ on this Angels team something you really want to be doing consistently?

The narrative of one team having the playoffs to play for and the other just trying to finish a bad year off will be more prevalent over the next few weeks as the MLB regular season winds down. With Oakland just playing out the string and the Angels in the thick of a playoff race, oddmakers know the mentality of some bettors out there is to routinely bet on the team playing for something and will have no problem inflating lines a bit to that side.

It's what I believe they've done here with the Angels ML price, because I don't see how you can get to -160 given some of the specific parameters involved.

For one, L.A has lost four of their last five games overall, and needed a furious 8th inning rally to get that lone win. They are also sending lefty Andrew Heaney to the hill for his third start of 2017 when his first two haven't gone well at all.

L.A is 0-2 SU in those previous two starts, thanks to Heaney's 8.10 ERA and 8 runs allowed/game so far. With only two starts numbers will be inflated, but no matter how you slice it, Heaney isn't worth this kind of price. With the A's having scored 6+ runs in four of their last five games overall and also on a 4-1 SU run during that span, laying the chalk with the Angels tonight is a risky proposition that I want no part of.

Backing the A's is always a consideration given everything I've laid out here, but I'm looking at this total instead.

Tonight's total of 9.5 is a much fairer number (ie void of inflation) here and it's gotten about even action on both sides already. Yet, with the pitching matchup and current form of both teams, I'm not sure how you can't like the high side of this total tonight.

I've already discussed Heaney's poor numbers in limited action for L.A this year, but Oakland's Daniel Gossett has had a rough go of it in 2017 too. Gossett has a 5.49 ERA through 11 starts this season and the 70 hits allowed in 59 innings of work suggests that this Angels team should be able to rough him up a bit. L.A is coming off two high-scoring games with Houston over the weekend, and while perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout has been struggling at the plate a bit, the rest of his team hasn't been. Add in a few hits from Trout this evening and a third straight game of 5+ runs scored by L.A is a very real possibility.

Oakland has been producing runs of late too as I touched on earlier, and getting to face a guy in Heaney who has yet to find any sort of positive consistency should help keep those A's bats hot. Playing spoiler against division rivals is about all the motivation the A's have left this year, and with Oakland on a 20-6 O/U run when coming off a win, and a 20-8 O/U run after scoring 5+ runs last time out, I'm expecting tonight's series opener between these two to be another game with at least 10 runs scored.

Best Bet: Over 9.5

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (+185, 9.5)

The Cubs and Phillies meet Sunday afternoon for the final game of their three-game weekend series in Philadelphia. The teams have split the first two games with the Cubs' exploding for a 17-2 win to even the series yesterday.

We're going to ride the hot bats and a hot right-handed arm getting the start for Chicago today.

John Lackey, after a rough start to the season, is clearly getting into playoff mode for the Cubs. The Cubbies have won his last eight starts and he has looked very solid in all eight - he did allow six earned runs in his last start which was a weird game in Cincinnati with the wind howling straight out at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs ended up winning 13-9 that night against the Reds and have covered -1.5 in seven of Lackey's eight consecutive team wins.

The Phillies will counter with Nick Pivetta and he has been terrible all season long with a team win/loss record of 5-14 and an ERA of 6.73. He has been particularly bad over his last four starts with a team win/loss of 0-4, an ERA of 14.49, and a WHIP of 2.488.

Hot team, hot starting pitcher vs. struggling team, bad starting pitcher.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120)

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-190, 9.5)

The Diamondbacks have taken the first two games of this three-game series and will be looking for the weekend sweep of the last place Giants on Sunday afternoon.

Usually taking an Under at Chase Field in Phoenix is a no-no, but we can't ignore how well both starting pitchers have been performing.

Rookie Chris Stratton gets the start for the Giants (who have played Under in six straight games). The young right-hander will be making his fifth career start today. In his last two outings, against pretty good offensive teams in the Brewers and Nationals, Stratton has allowed exactly ZERO runs on only nine hits over 12.2 innings of work.

Patrick Corbin will get the ball for the D-Backs and we are all quite aware that he does his best work at home. In 13 home starts this season, Corbin is 7-3 with a very solid ERA of 2.87. Over his last three starts (one at home and two on the road), he is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.39, a WHIP of 0.73, and an opponent's on base percentage of .198. Those are Robbie Ray type numbers from the beginning of the season.

Two very hot starting pitchers taking on two teams who have not been scoring many runs recently - Giants averaging 2.5 runs per game over their last six, D-Back averaging 3.25 runs per game over their last eight).

Sounds like a good scenario for an Under play.

Pick: Under 9.5

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 126-115-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (11-11, 4.09 ERA, $-86)

We don't usually include a starting pitcher in this section if he's already been mentioned above in the picks section, but Patrick Corbin has been so good he deserves the double-billing - and the pickings are slim today.

Over his last three starts, Corbin has only allowed one earned run (ERA of 0.39) and 13 hits (WHIP of 0.73) in 23.1 innings of work.

Corbin and the Diamondbacks are available at a chalky -190 today at home against Chris Stratton and the Giants.

Slumping: Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves (10-9, 4.95 ERA, $595)

The 2017 season started out really well for Mike Foltynewicz, but over the last month there have been a few very wobbly performances - and in his last three starts the wheels have completely fallen off.

In his last three outings Folty is 0-3 with an ERA of 15.43, a WHIP of 2.91, and an incredibly bad opponent's on base percentage of .507.

Foltynewicz and the Braves are slight dogs (+110) at home today against Jon Gray and the Rockies.

Sunday's Top Trends

* The Minnesota Twins are 15-1 in Kyle Gibson's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. +130 today at Blue Jays.
* The Miami Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. -160 today vs. Padres.
* The Kansas City Royals are 2-11 in their last 13 games in Cleveland. +180 today at Indians.
* Over is 15-3 in the St. Louis Cardinals' last 18 vs. American League East. Rays/Cards Total: 8.5.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

For starters, thoughts and prayers for everyone in southern Texas - absolutely horrible situation.

As for MLB weather today, the only game on the schedule that may see precipitation is on the South Side of Chicago where the White Sox will host the Tigers this afternoon. There is a chance that some afternoon thunderstorms will develop during the late innings.

The most notable wind this afternoon will be at Fenway Park in Boston where the forecast is calling for a 10-12 mile per hour breeze blowing in from the right field bleachers. The Orioles are in town taking on the Red Sox and the total for today's contest is set at 10.5.

Ump Of The Day

Ted Barrett will be calling balls and strikes today in Atlanta where the Braves are hosting the Rockies.

Barrett is one of baseball's top Under umps this season at 13-8-3 and the Under is 12-3-2 in his last 17 games wearing the pads. He is also a very prominent homer at 17-7 for the home team in his 24 games behind the dish in 2017.

The Braves are slight home dogs today at +110 and the total is set at 9.

Yankees host Indians
By: StatFox.com

The Yankees will be hoping to earn a big home victory over the Indians on Monday night.

The Indians have a 6.5-game lead on the Twins in the AL Central and it’s really just not likely that they’ll lose their spot atop the division between now and the end of the season. The Yankees, however, still have a ton left to play for. New York is only 2.5 games behind Boston in the AL East, and the Yankees certainly are doing everything they can in order to win the division. They’re also sitting atop the wild card standings right now, so their playoff chances are certainly looking pretty good at the moment. This game, however, is going to be a tough one for both of these teams. That is because the matchup on the mound will feature a pair of aces, as RHP Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.65 ERA, 208 K) will be on the mound for the Indians and RHP Luis Severino (11-5, 3.10 ERA, 183 K) will be out there for the Yankees. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that Cleveland is 78-45 against the money line versus AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs per game on the year over the past two seasons.

The Indians are coming off of a 12-0 victory over the Royals on Sunday, so they’ll be feeling good when they get out there on Monday. Corey Kluber will be on the mound for Cleveland in this game and the righty has been dealing as of late. Kluber has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past 10 starts for the Indians, and he has struck out 10 or more batters in seven of the past 10 as well. If he can continue to miss bats like that then the Yankees will be in trouble in this one, as they are a team that is full of all-or-nothing hitters. On offense, SS Francisco Lindor could be a guy to keep an eye on in this game. Lindor is 3-for-8 with a homer against Severino in his career. Severino has definitely improved since the last time they met, but Lindor will still be feeling confident when he gets to the plate. The same can also be said for 1B Carlos Santana, who homered against the Royals on Sunday and has now homered in each of the past two games for Cleveland.

Luis Severino has been remarkable for the Yankees this season, as he has allowed one or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 25 starts on the year. Severino tends to either completely shut the opponent down or turn in an absolutely horrible outing, and there is really no in-between. New York will be hoping that the good Sevy shows up in this one, but he has definitely enjoyed pitching on the road more than pitching at Yankee Stadium. He is just 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA at home this season, which is something that the team desperately wants him to change. On offense, the Yankees will be looking for somebody to step it up against Kluber here. One guy that just might be able to do it is C Gary Sanchez, who is 2-for-6 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against the righty in his career. Sanchez also owes it to his team to produce in this one, as he will be serving a four-game suspension very shortly.