Baseball Information
National League
Cubs @ Pirates
Lester is 2-0, 1.61 in his last three starts; under is 9-0-1 in his last ten.
Liriano is 3-0, 2.37 in his last six starts (over 4-1 in last five).
Cubs won four of their last six games with Pittsburgh; Chicago won its last five games overall (under 4-0-1). Pirates won five of last seven (under 2-0-1 in last three games). .
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Godley is 3-0, 2.25 in his first two starts (over 2-0)-- Arizona scored eight runs in each of his two starts.
Fister is 1-3, 5.14 in his last five starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Washington is 3-7 in last ten games overall; five of last seven stayed under the total- they won seven of last eight games with Arizona- five of last seven in series went over. D'backs lost five of their last seven games (under 5-2).
Giants @ Braves
Cain is 1-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Foltynewicz is 0-2, 6.35 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four).
Giants won seven of last ten games with Atlanta; four of last five went over the total. SF won 14 of last 18 games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Braves lost six of last seven games (over 2-0-1 in last three).
Mets @ Marlins
Mets lost last seven Colon starts (0-6, 6.63); seven of his last 10 went under. .
Koehler is 1-3, 4.68 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Mets won six of last eight games, are tied for first in NL East, but they lost four of last five with Miami- three of last four went over. Marlins lost seven of last nine games (under 9-4 in last 13 games).
Padres @ Brewers
Ross is 2-1, 2.77 in his last five starts.
Peralta is 2-1, 3.72 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1 in last five).
Brewers lost ten of last twelve games; under is 8-0-2 in last ten. Milwaukee is 4-6 in its last ten games with San Diego (under 8-2). Padres won four of their last five games (over 5-0).
American League
Twins @ Blue Jays
Santana is 2-0, 0.76 in his three road starts this year (under 3-0).
Newly-acquired Price makes his Toronto debut here; he was 0-2, 3.43 in his last three starts for Detroit- three of his last four stayed under.
Minnesota won six of last eight games with Toronto; Twins lost six of last eight games overall, with last three staying under. Blue Jays won four of last five games; six of their last nine went over.
Astros @ Rangers
McCullers is 2-1, 2.50 in his last six starts (over 3-0-1 in last four).
Lewis is 3-0, 2.57 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Houston lost four of last six games with Texas; three of last four went over the total. Astros won five of last six games (over 4-2). Rangers won four of last five games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine.
Rays @ White Sox
Karns is 2-0, 0.82 in his last two starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Quintana is 2-0, 1.17 in his last two starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under the total.
Rays won four of last five games with Chicago; three of last four went over the total. Tampa Bay lost three of last four games; three of their last four on road went over. White Sox lost three of last four games; eight of their last nine games went over.
Orioles @ A's
Wilson allowed two runs in six IP (86 PT) in his only MLB start.
Chavez is 1-4, 5.23 in his last six starts; eight of his last nine went over.
Orioles lost three of last four games with Oakland; eight of last ten in series went over the total. Baltimore won seven of last nine games but lost last five road series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. A's won last two games after a 1-7 skid; eight of their last ten games stayed under.
Indians @ Angels
Kluber is 1-1, 3.90 in his last four road starts (over 3-1).
Richards is 1-3, 3.45 in his last four starts; Angels scored eight runs in those four games- under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Angels lost nine of last ten games after going 0-6 on Houston/LA trip last week; they're 5-2 in last seven games with Cleveland (under 6-4 in last ten). Indians lost eight of last 11 games, with last four staying under total.
Interleague
Mariners @ Rockies
Hernandez is 0-1, 1.42 in his last three road starts (under 3-0); Seattle scored three runs in those three games.
Butler is 0-2, 6.61 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Rockies are 4-7 in last 11 games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Colorado lost its last three games with Seattle; under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Mariners lost five of last seven games, with last three staying under.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Pitt-- Lester 11-10; Liriano 10-10 (6-0 last 6)
Az-Wsh-- Godley 2-0; Fister 5-9
SF-Atl-- Cain 3-2; Foltynewicz 4-6
NY-Mia-- Colon 9-11 (0-7 last 7); Koehler 10-9
SD-Mil-- Ross 11-11; Peralta 4-6
Min-Tor-- Santana 3-2; Price (15-6 w/Det)
Hst-Tex-- McCullers 7-6; Lewis 11-10
TB-Chi-- Karns 9-10; Quintana 9-12
Balt-A's-- Wilson 0-1; Chavez 5-13
Clev-LAA-- Kluber 7-15; Richards 11-8
Sea-Col-- Hernandez 13-8; Butler 6-7
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Pitt-- Lester 7-21; Liriano 2-20
Az-Wsh-- Godley 0-2; Fister 4-14
SF-Atl-- Cain 2-5; Foltynewicz 5-10
NY-Mia-- Colon 6-20; Koehler 4-19
SD-Mil-- Ross 5-22; Peralta 2-10
Min-Tor-- Santana 0-5; Price 4-21
Hst-Tex-- McCullers 2-13; Lewis 4-21
TB-Chi-- Karns 8-19; Quintana 11-21
Balt-A's-- Wilson 0-1; Chavez 5-18 (3 of last 4)
Clev-LAA-- Kluber 10-22; Richards 2-19
Sea-Col-- Hernandez 6-21; Butler 7-14
Armadillosports.com
Monday Scouting Edge
By Coach Fletcher
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
David Price is no doubt an excellent pitcher. He has found his way to Toronto from the depths of Detroit and I'm sure he's relishing the chance to pitch for a contender. His era while with the Tigers was a crisp 2.65 and his record 9-4. He goes into today's game as a huge favorite over the Twins and Ervin Santana. Santana is 2-1 with a 3.78 era after an 80 game suspension. His arm should be plenty fresh. Price ran into a few problems in his final start for the Tigers against Tampa Bay. He went 6 innings and gave up 5 runs on 7 hits, 2 of which went the distance. Santana sports a 0.76 era on the road. He too was blasted in his last start giving up 8 runs, 6 earned, against the Pirates. In 5 2/3 frames Santana gave up 8 hits including 2 four baggers. Price has been uber-successful against the Twins, who are 1 game ahead of Toronto in the Al Central. He's 8-3 with a 2.33 era overall. He's been 6-1 with a 1.87 era versus Minnesota in the last 2 seasons.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Chicago Cubs have had their ups and downs. They have been hovering in the area of 10 games behind the league leading Cardinals even after being swept at Wrigley by the suddenly hot Phillies. Now they've won 5 straight and Cub fans are happy again. The 5 game streak isn't all that impressive when you break it down. The first game in the streak started when they downed the Rockies and Eddie Butler 3-2 as -220 favorites. The next 4 wins were over the lowly Millwaukee Brewers who scored only 9 runs in the 4 game series. The Cubs only managed to score 13 runs and may have lost rookie Kris Bryant who injured himself Sunday. The Cubs were favored in the 1st 3 games in the series and were only slight dogs against the Brewers Kyle Lohse who is 5-13 on the year. Francisco Liriano and the Pirates may prove a little tougher for the Cubs today. We will see if they really are contenders or pretenders.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Zack Godley will try to win his 3rd game in as many starts as he takes on the Washington Nationals tonight. Godley has won his first two starts, both as dogs. The 25 year old Godley has spent 3 years in the minor leagues. He went 15-7 with a 2.73 era while there. He bypassed Triple-A coming directly to the D-backs from Double-A Mobile where he was 1-1 with a 5.14 era. In the big leagues, Godley has improved. In his first start against the Brewers, he went 6 innings without allowing a run and gave up only 4 hits and fanned 7. In his second start, this one against the Mariners, he went 6 innings once more and gave up 3 runs on 7 hits including 2 bombs. He will be facing the Nats Doug Fister who 1-2 with a 5.62 era in his last 3 starts.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are now just 3 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies and tied wih the Colorado Rockies for baseball's worst team. The way they're going, it might not be long before they take over worst place. They take on the Padres at home sending a 2-5 Wily Peralta against a 7-8 Tyson Ross. The Brew Crew has lost 5 straight games including being swept 4 straight at home by the Cubs. They have only won 3 of their last 13 games. Ross is 2-1 versus Milwaukee holding them to only one run in 6 innings in 2 of his 3 starts in 2014. Peralta, however, may give the Brewers a shot at a win. He's 1-0 against the Friars with a 2014 victory to his credit and an era against SD of just 2.84. Peralta just came off a 2 month stay on the disabled list and brought his 96 mph fastball back with him. He went 6 innings against the Giants giving up 2 runs on 5 hits.
Monday MLB Preview
By Dave Essler
Cubs-Pirates: The Cubs did indeed beat the Brewers Sunday, but should have beaten them much worse. They were 2-11 with runners in scoring position Rizzo came back to normal, and because the Brewers threatened in the ninth Rondon threw 29 pitches. So, they didn't play as clean as it may look and their pen, which had a 4.44 ERA over the last week, was stressed a bit.The Pirates get a shut out WIN on only three of their own hits, used most of their good arms out of the pen, but not for many pitches. Their bullpen had been miserable of late, too. Cubs pen perhaps slightly more rested over the weekend. Kris Bryant left the game Sunday so we'll see what's up with him. Pirates in a first-game-back, which hasn't been overly kind to them, but it was only a short trip out and not tons of time zones. A big series for the Pirates, but probably bigger for the Cubs because they cannot afford to fall too much further back. Pirates are 35-17 at home and about .500 against LHP, but what really surprised me was that they are only 18-26 against the NL Central. These two haven't played since the middle of May - and I suspect the Cubs are the more improved team since then. Interesting that they've only played six game, and more interesting that Lester didn't pitch in either series. Lester, who hasn't got the great W/L record lately, but has a sick 0.86 WHIP over the last seven starts. Liriano lost to the Cubs (Wood) at home back in April. He probably remembers that, but is was more the pen that lost it than him. The Pirates have won his last six starts. David Ross catching Lester weakens the Cubs offense, usually. In any batter versus pitcher stats - edge to Liriano, but the Pirates' looks were back in 2011 when Lester pitched at Pittsburgh when he was with Boston. So, toss up. Reasonable chance of a T-Storm, fairly warm, and a slightly helping breeze to left in a hitters' park. Cubs hitting .226 since the break and the Pirates .262 - scoring about equal, Cubs doing it more with the home run, which Liriano doesn't usually give up, although surprisingly he's allowed 8 of his 10 this season at home. He owns left handed hitters.
Arizona-Washington: The one thing we do know is that the Nats are going to be glad to get home, losing a series in New York, and playing on Sunday Night in a crazy atmosphere. One thing I have always held against Washington is their mental toughness, or lack thereof. Sending Fister to the mound is almost a crapshoot, but the one thing we might reasonably conclude is that he'll need the bullpen. He hasn't pitched past the sixth inning in his last five starts, and until he beat the Fish last week, Washington had lost four of his five previous starts since he came back. Normally, I'd look to back Arizona against a left handed pitcher, but interestingly enough, Fister is allowing RIGHT handed batters to hit .367 against him in 146 at bats this season. Arizona played Houston fairly tough on Sunday and their bullpen was once again very solid. The D-backs had the hits, but not when they need them to, and the top third of their order went 0-12. Godley has shown he can win on the road, but has had great run support. He shutout the Brewers at home in his first start and was marginal at best in Seattle, allowing two home runs. Washington's bullpen has been very good of late, and they've needed to be. Going into Sunday nights' game, the Nationals had only had double-digit hits ONCE since July 12th, or 16 games. Arizona has NOT been a bad road team, and Washington has fared better against LHP (W/L record) than RHP. The variables here are more the starters than anything else, which is a bit unusual. Not sure which Fister and who knows whether the Nationals "spot" and not seeing Godley is a factor. Arizona still in the playoff hunt, and as long as they think they are, then they are, and their only really bad loss in quite some time was that 9-2 loss against Kuechel on Saturday.
Giants-Braves: It's getting to the point where we have to start thinking about only playing teams that are still playing for this season, except in rare market mis-priced games. I'm not sure what was up with that line in the Giants game on Sunday, and it was early and often. And right. Hard to fathom - but impossible to ignore. San Francisco HAD been scoring more on the road and HAD been much better (W/L) against lefties. After winning 12 of 13 against VERY marginal offenses they've now lost three of four to decent offenses. Atlanta's as a whole is not decent, but they did put up six runs on eleven hits Sunday, and Freeman was 0-5, and Simmons didn't play. We could easily write off Atlanta, and that may be what we do, but people wrote off the Phillies who just made people a ton, and people gave me sh*t for playing the Astros so much early in the season. Cain is certainly not the Giants' best option. He's beaten the Mets (who weren't hitting at the time) and the Padres, and lost (badly) to decent hitting teams. The Braves are not a great offensive team, but we're talking about one game, and they are 26-20 at home. Atlanta could be confident since they did split a series with the Giants in San Francisco, and Foltynewicz actually won one of those games. However, the downside there is that the Giants have seen him. Only Maybin (when he was with San Diego) has any significant at bats against Cain. Freeman is 0-5. Foltynewicz pitched well at Baltimore, who'd never seen him, but he threw over 100 pitches and the last two (and only other) times that happened he was hit very hard the next game. That is enough to probably keep me off Atlanta. I don't know about ON the Giants at -150 on the road after yesterday, but off Atlanta. That total of 8u (-120) seems awful high for a game at Turner Field, so I do think it comes down, but perhaps there for a reason. The weather will be pretty typical Atlanta Summer weather, and I wonder if the heat and humidity of Arlington wore down the Giants, who aren't used to that at all - and losing another hour coming East.
Mets-Miami: The same deal as Washington for the Mets in that there's a huge emotional series and a late night game and the the travel to South Florida. So the final verdict will be out, but we have to look early. Fernandez only went six innings for the Fish, meaning they used bullpen. And in fact although it was a great win for them, Ramos gave up two in the top of the ninth before Hecavarria hits a three run home run in the bottom of the ninth - of all people, and it was the bottom of their order that got it done. That doesn't happen often in Miami. The Fish were swept four games in New York early in the season, and have actually won two series' since then (against New York). The Mets bullpen has not been dominant and lets' not forget the emotional letdown, win or lose, that they'll have after Sunday night. Not to mention that this is the same Mets team that is 17-32 on the road. So, I can't get carried away with the recent drama of Flores or the big Saturday night win. The Mets have lost the last seven starts Colon has made, and once he pitched to the level of his competition (Kershaw) otherwise he's been bad. Very tough to take New York here. Koehler was hit hard by the Nationals last week, and had been very good at home, but also hadn't pitched at home since the end of June. He's pitched well against the Mets - only allowing two long balls in 175 or so at bats. Tejada and Nieuwenhuis (in five at bats) have some hits against him, but the meat of the order does not. It is interesting to me that the total here is 7o (-120) in most places. I could see 7 but not closer to 7.5. Travel no factor for Miami. Much like so many other games from now on, there's enough evidence to probably keep me off New York, but perhaps not enough to TAKE Miami.
San Diego-Milwaukee: I doubt either team is feeling very good about life, least of all the Padres, who hung around in Miami against Fernandez, tied the game, went ahead, then lost with a three run home runs by a slap hitter in the bottom of the ninth. Then they have to fly to Wisconsin. That cannot be a good thing. And then there are the Brewers, who seriously look like the don't care - the body language and the swinging early in counts. The strength of the Brewers has been their bullpen, which years was maligned. They (Milwaukee) haven't had ten hits in a single game in ten games, and have only scored more than three runs in one of those ten games. San Diego is probably more motivated because they can actually finish at .500 since they're only three games below that, and for the Padres, that's something for most of them to play for, at least the ones that have been there a while. They'd been winning before they ran into Urena, scoring a bunch of runs, and the Fernandez, who they could have beaten, so I like their chances. Ross did leave the lat game with some thigh tightness, so we need to make sure that's not a lingering issue. He's (Ross) typically a ground ball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, which should bode well in this park. The downside here is that in limited at bats, most of the Brewers have hit him very well. I need to find out when and where. Peralta looked pretty reasonable against the Giants, after missing almost two months. When he's on, he too is a ground ball pitcher, but when he's not he can be bad - really bad. He ran out of gas the last game (so they say) which is not unexpected given the layoff. San Diego hasn't seen much off him - so that matchup is tough to nail down. If the Brewers hadn't hit Ross at some point I'd be taking the Padres without question.
Houston-Texas: The Astros are still winning, and still hitting home runs. At home. On the road they are still six games under .500 and now are playing a division rival, an in-state rival, outside, in the heat. Although Houston won on Sunday, they were out hit by Arizona and didn't have that big crooked inning they often do. We know they're young, and I wonder if at some point they don't start thinking too much. This game is the start of a long road trip that also takes them to the West Coast, more division games, and IL games with the Giants - so the Astros "mid term" starts now. The Rangers have won four of five and most by just outscoring people, until whatever that game was against the Giants on Sunday. I don't know if it was Perez being brilliant or the Giants being off, but someone knew something. The situation is in favor of Texas, IMO. I've watched Colby Lewis pitch for years, and he's typically solid, keeps teams in games, and then all of a sudden has that one outing you just cannot explain. What always concerns me about him is that he is a flyball pitcher, now in a hot summer hitters park, against a team that can hit it over the fence, and he's had three straight 100+ pitch games which for him is a lot. Houston has seen a fair bit of him, but slight edge to Lewis on paper. I keep waiting for McCullers to fall apart and he keeps getting better. He's only 21, which is why I wait for the meltdown game that hasn't come. He keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and of course the Rangers haven't seen him. One would think this could well be a Houston F5 game, given that. I don't see Lewis shutting out the Astros, regardless, and it may well take a while for the Rangers, if at all, to get to McCullers. However, that heat is a factor, IMO, but the Texas pen is nothing most teams need to worry about. They did show some signs over the weekend, and the intangibles late, if it's close, have to go to the streaking Rangers, I would think.
Rays-White Sox: Chicago and Samardzija were lit up with two big innings by the Yankees, but Chicago didn't need much bullpen because Carroll took them the rest of the way when Samardzija couldn't get out of the fifth inning. They had really been pounding the ball, and winning, until the Yankees took two of three. However, those wins were against Boston, a team in serious disarray, and the Indians who cannot score. Prior to those two series' they were beaten by St. Louis and Kansas City, good teams. I am not sure which category to put the Rays in, since I guess they're technically still in the AL East race but there's a team between them and the Yankees - not to mention nine games in the loss column. The Rays pen has not been great most of the season, but they are 17-11 against left handed starters. Fundamentally the Rays are the better team with more cohesiveness and perhaps playing harder right now. Quintana has been pitching well recently, a great WHIP, but every now and then he gets destroyed, and predicting when is tough. I do know that there was some early Rays money, and Karns is a lot like Quintana in that he is generally solid but can get crushed every so often. The Rays have seen very little of Quintana, which surprised me a little, and Chicago has seen Karns once, which is more than I expected, but he beat Chris Sale at home back in June. If the White Sox were either good or contending (one would think they go hand in hand) I'd take them, assuming they'd make adjustments. Not a huge edge either way, but Karns generally isn't someone that's going to give you much more than six innings, so perhaps a Rays F5 or the other option would be trusting their bullpen, which might take some doing. From a rest standpoint that edge goes to the White Sox in this game.
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota at Toronto
Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins both chasing a Wild Card berth open a crucial four-game set at the Rogers Center. Lefty David Price carrying a 9-4 record, 2.53 ERA makes his Blue Jays debut in this early start. Price has faced Twins three times this season going 3-0 tossing 23 innings of 5 run-ball with a 20-5 strike-to-walk ratio. Price trades pitches with Twins Ervin Santana who is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA in five starts for his new club. With the presence of today's starter, the Blue Jays have opened -$2.00 home favorites, with the total set at 7 runs. A pricey home favorite in baseball betting is always a risky proposition. However, in this case Price's success vs Minnesota makes it less risky. Additionally, facing a southpaw has not been good for the Twins on the road this year, since losses in 11 of 16 games has been the end result. This being a series opener is yet another nod towards the Blue Jays, since the team has compiled a 11-5 record in series home openers, whereas Minnesota has shown a habit of faltering opening a series in enemy territory (5-11). Taking all those numbers into account, there is still one more fact that leans in Toronto's direction. Minnesota as a team has had its problems in daylight hours on the road. In the past five they're 1-4 and 9-14 on the year.
Seattle at Colorado
The Colorado Rockies don't put up much of a fight when they take on the Junior Circuit. Rockies are just 2-12 this season vs the A.L. and 9-25 the last 34 games. That is exactly the situation the Rockies will be in Monday when they host the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez who carries a 3-1 TSR his last four on the road vs an N.L. opponent.
Cubs, Pirates square off
By Sportsbook.ag
CHICAGO CUBS (57-47) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (61-43)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -130, Chicago +120, Total: 6.5
Two teams vying for a spot in the postseason, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, will begin an important three-game series on Monday night.
It has been an outstanding campaign for the Cubs in 2015 as they currently remain in the second wildcard spot while being tied with the Giants. The young club has some of the more exciting and talented players in the game and that has led the Cubs to victories in six of their last seven games; including each of the last five.
Most of those were in Milwaukee where they swept the Brewers over four games, giving up eight runs in all and capped it off with a close 4-3 win on Sunday afternoon when the offense was a mere 2-for-11 with RISP, but did enough to back a nice outing (6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3K) from starter Clayton Richard. His four-game hitting streak may have ended on Sunday, but 1B Anthony Rizzo (.286) is 8-for-19 (.421) with four homers, 10 RBIs and five runs during the current winning streak.
Since the Pirates have decided to start keeping their young stars, they have begun to win and remain competitive in the tough NL Central while currently owning the top wildcard spot. They’ve also been playing some solid baseball of late, going 7-3 in their last 10-game stretch and will be returning home for just the second series since the All-Star break.
They were able to earn a split on the road against the Reds on Sunday afternoon, riding the stellar effort (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 7 K) by Charlie Morton in a 3-0 victory. OF Starling Marte (.288) has helped in making this OF one of the best in the league and has at least one hit in nine of the last 10 games; driving in six runs during that time.
A couple of veteran lefties will battle it out in this divisional matchup with LHP Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) of Chicago going against LHP Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92 ERA) of the host group.
One reason that the Cubs have been so successful this year is their ability to play well on the road where they are 30-23 (.566) as they take on this Pittsburgh crew which is a solid 35-17 (.673) at home.
The series between these teams since the start of 2013 hasn’t been all too close with the Pirates holding a 30-18 (.625) edge overall while taking 16-of-24 contests at home during that stretch.
The last time the clubs played against each other this year in Pittsburgh was back in April, and Chicago managed a split over four games, outscoring the Pirates 21-19.
Some trends to keep an eye on include that the Cubs are 14-5 (.737) in games with a total of seven or less this year while being a meager 17-39 (.304) after having won five or six of their last seven games going back three years.
Chicago will be keeping an eye on 3B Kris Bryant who left Sunday’s game with dizziness after a slide and they will also be playing without C Miguel Montero (Thumb) who is on the DL. On the other side of the diamond, Pittsburgh has 3B Josh Harrison (Thumb) and SS Jody Mercer (Knee) still missing from the active roster.
After a career year in 2014, Lester has reverted back to his usual stuff, which while still better than most other starters in the league, is certainly not the greatness of last year (16-11, 2.46 ERA). He has kept his strikeouts up (9.2 K/9) and has some of the best control (2.2 BB/9) as he keeps the ball in park (0.75 HR/9).
Most would think that lefties have more trouble against him, but on the year they are hitting .269 over 126 batters faced compared to the .233 mark right-handed batters have posted in their 419 plate appearances. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last six outings, throwing five quality starts with a 50:5 K/BB ratio over 43.1 frames.
Lester has done well in his limited time against the Pirates and is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA (1.46 WHIP) while getting the one win this year in a nice outing (7 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 7 K). The only players on Pittsburgh who have any sort of success against the lefty are 3B Aramis Ramirez (3-for-7) and C Chris Stewart (3-for-7) as superstar OF Andrew McCutchen is hitless in six at-bats during the matchup.
The relievers for Chicago have gone 24-18 with a 3.38 ERA (1.26 WHIP) and are 28-for-43 (65%) in save chances. Hector Rondon (1.88 ERA, 16 saves) has been reinserted as the closer, converting each of the last four save opportunities and 16-of-19 (84%) on the year.
Liriano may not be considered an ace by many, but he is looking to post an ERA south of 3.40 for the third consecutive season as he is striking out more batters (10.0 K/9) than he has since 2006. His control (3.0 BB/9) is also near a career-best as he gives up a respectable 0.71 HR/9. Despite batters hitting a poor .265 BABIP against him, his ERA seems very sustainable with a FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) of 2.94 as he is getting the opposition to hit it on the ground 53.7% of the time.
Unlike his counterpart in this one, Liriano and his nasty slider have dominated left-handers to the tune of a .185 average over 114 batters faced in 2015. He’s currently riding a six-game quality start streak dating back to June 26th and his team has been able to win each of those contests with Liriano going 3-0. The 31-year-old has had plenty of experience against the Cubs in his career, going 4-2 (6-4 team record) with a 2.56 ERA (1.02 WHIP), but did lose in his one start (5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 9 K) this year.
The players on Chicago’s roster have combined to go a putrid 12-for-86 (.140) with 33 strikeouts against the lefty as both 1B Anthony Rizzo (4-for-20, 7 K) and SS Starlin Castro (3-for-22, 7 K) have really struggled in the matchup.
The Pirates bullpen has gone 16-13 with a 2.86 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and are a solid 36-for-46 (78%) in their saves. Mark Melancon (1.29 ERA, 33 saves) leads the league in saves and has not blown one since April 21st as he benefits from a .252 BABIP mark from the opposition.
Game of the Day: Cubs at Pirates
Covers.com
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-127, 6.5)
The National League wild-card race will heat up this week when two of the top contenders — the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates — hook up for a three-game series in Pittsburgh. The Cubs have won five straight and six of seven to move 10 games above .500 for the first time since the end of the 2008 season, pulling into a tie with San Francisco for the second wild card and within four games of the Pirates.
Chicago could begin the series without rookie third baseman Kris Bryant, who left Sunday’s contest due to dizziness after a collision sliding into second and will be reevaluated Monday. The Pirates salvaged a split of their four-game set in Cincinnati with a 3-0 win Sunday in a game marred by the benches clearing after each team hit a batter. After shutting out the Reds on six hits Sunday, the Pirates look for more of the same from left-hander Francisco Liriano, who was dominant at home (8-1, 1.47 ERA) in his first season with the Pirates in 2013 but has struggled to a 5-9 mark and a 4.04 ERA at PNC Park over the past two seasons. Liriano will oppose another tough lefty in Cubs ace Jon Lester, who makes his first start in Pittsburgh since 2011 with Boston.
LINE HISTROY: The Pirates opened as -130 home favorites and have been bet down to -127. The total has held steady at its opening number of 6.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Cubs - 3B K. Bryant (questionable Monday, head), RP N. Ramirez (15-day DL, abdominal), C M. Montero (15-day DL thumb), RP Z. Rosscup (15-day DL, shoulder), SP T. Wada (15-day DL, shoulder), 2B T. La Stella (60-day DL, ribs), SP J. Turner (60-day DL, shoulder).
Pirates - SP A. Burnett (15-day DL, elbow), 3B J. Harrison (Late Aug, thumb), SS J. Mercer (Early Sept, knee), RF C. Hart (60-day DL, shoulder), LF A. Lambo (60-day DL, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance of thunderstorms and a 63 percent chance of rain at game time. There will also be a moderate hitter wind blowing at nine miles per hour out to left field.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92)
Lester has pitched like the ace the Cubs signed him to be in the second half, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA over three starts since the break. The 31-year-old has recorded quality starts in three straight outings and five of his last six, piling up 50 strikeouts against five walks over 43 1/3 innings in July. Lester beat the Pirates on May 16 in Chicago, allowing one run and nine hits over seven innings while striking out seven.
The Pirates have won Liriano’s last six starts with the 31-year-old going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA over that span. The native of the Dominican Republic had his streak of five straight quality starts snapped last time out, as he allowed three runs (two earned) and a season-high 10 hits over 5 2/3 frames at Minnesota. Liriano is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 starts against the Cubs, including a no-decision earlier this season.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Cubs are 6-1 in Lester's last seven starts against the NL Central.
* Pirates are 7-0 in Liriano's last seven starts as a favorite.
* Under is 7-0 in Lester's last seven starts versus a team with a winning record.
CONSENSUS: The public is giving the edge to Pittsburgh with 64.31 percent of wagers backing the Pirates.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Matt Zylbert
VegasInsider.com
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s a bit of a different flavor on ESPN Monday Night Baseball tonight, as instead of getting a nationally-televised game with the usual suspects, it’ll instead be the surging Cubs and Pirates who are showcased in game one of their critical three-game set from PNC Park. The series kicks off with a pitching matchup comprised of two upper echelon National League left-handers, with Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92 ERA) taking the ball first for the second-place Pirates. The 31-year-old has been a weird pitcher to bet on this season, at least as far as regular ML propositions are concerned, as Pittsburgh lost eight of his first ten starts this season. Since then, however, they’ve actually won eight of his last ten, making the Pirates an even 10-10 when Liriano takes the hill. In any event, he’s a -130 home favorite this evening.
Trailing directly behind the Pirates in the NL Central by four games is indeed the Cubs, who are currently mired in a tie with the defending champion San Francisco Giants for the second Wild Card berth. They also enter this one with the Majors’ longest active winning streak at five games, and are turning to Opening Day starter Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) to try and extend it further in this ESPN affair. After a relatively slow start to the campaign, it’s apparent that Lester has settled in with his new digs now, as he’s been pitching some of his best baseball of the season as of late. In fact, he’s gone seven innings or more in six consecutive starts, while yielding just two runs in five of those outings. As a result, he might have solid value as a +120 road ’dog. The over/under, meanwhile, is 6.5.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
The Mets just endured a week that was the equivalent of a wild rollercoaster, with a variety of extreme highs and lows that a lot of teams would only experience over a full season. From the botched Carlos Gomez trade mess, to blowing a 7-1 lead at home the very next afternoon, to acquiring slugger Yoenis Cespedes, all the way en route to the most important sweep in Citi Field history when the club took down the first-place Washington Nationals. At the end of the day, the Mets now find themselves in a tie for first, and have an opportune series with the Marlins to possibly move into sole possession for division supremacy.
Bartolo Colon (9-10, 4.96 ERA) takes the hill for the Mets in game one looking to get back on track. The 42-year-old right-hander is coming off his shortest outing of the season, when the Padres tattooed him for six runs on ten hits in just two-plus innings, and he’ll also try to reverse a trend right now that has seen the Mets lost his last seven consecutive starts. Overall, he’s allowed four runs or more in four of his past seven assignments, hence why his ERA has steadily gone south.
Tom Koehler (8-7, 3.38 ERA) certainly hasn’t had that issue, as he takes the ball for Miami. Although he allowed five runs in his last start, Koehler has quietly been one of the hotter pitchers in baseball over the past couple of months, having impressively gone six innings or more in nine consecutive starts. Furthermore, he surrendered two earned runs or less in seven of those, including a shocking win over Clayton Kershaw at the end of June. The over/under for this contest opened up at 7, but has now risen to 7.5 in many shops.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
In what is probably baseball’s most underrated in-state rivalry, the Astros and Rangers will clash in a three-game set to continue this year’s Lone Star Series. There’s a lot more than the silver boot trophy on the line this year, however, as both teams are trying to stake their claim towards an unlikely playoff berth. Of course, everyone is already familiar with Houston’s storybook year, and after winning another series over the weekend, the Astros own a much more comforting four-game lead for first place in the AL West. Upstart rookie Lance McCullers (5-3, 2.48 ERA) toes the rubber in this series opener looking to continue his success, as he has to be considered one of the frontrunners for this year’s AL Rookie of the Year award. McCullers has put up some very sparkling numbers in his freshman campaign but the most impressive of all is his opposing batting average, as lineups are hitting a miniscule .207 off the 21-year-old right-hander. Interestingly, the over has gone 3-0-2 in his last five starts.
Like McCullers, Colby Lewis (11-4, 4.42 ERA) has also remarkably consistent, at least as of late, as the 36-year-old has remarkably fired quality starts in 10 of his last 11 tries. It’s probably the most underrated streak in baseball right now as far as starting pitchers go, and the Rangers are 7-4 over that stretch. Interestingly, the over has also gone 7-4 in those outings as well. Also of note, Lewis has pitched against the Astros more than any other team in ’15, with three starts spanning 22.2 innings, and he’s churned out some solid numbers in the process, having a 2.78 ERA, 0.79 WHIP (!), and an 18/1 K/BB ratio in those outings. Furthermore, the Astros have only been able to muster a .205 average versus Lewis. Nonetheless, Houston is the -130 favorite, and the over/under is predictably 9.
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
If you look close enough at the pitching matchup that kicks off this Indians-Angels series from Angel Stadium of Anaheim tonight, you might notice sort of an interesting dynamic. That’s because it involves the reigning AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (6-11, 3.44 ERA) in action, coming off his second complete game of the season his last time out when he had his way with the Royals at home. Opposing him is Garrett Richards (10-8, 3.38 ERA), someone who was so tremendous last year that if not for his fluke season-ending injury last August at Fenway Park, perhaps Kluber would not have secured his first career Cy Young award.
Fortunately for the Halos, Richards returned from his injury seemingly picking up where he left off, continuing to serve as one of the most consistent arms in this rotation. In fact, he’s registered six innings or more in all but three of his 19 starts this year. Kluber is certainly familiar with that type of consistency, having logged six innings or more in all but three of his 22 starts in 2015. He also appears to be re-entering prime form, after enjoying his best month of the season when he went 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six July starts, while holding opponents to a .212 batting average. The linesmakers have understandably opened this one with an over/under of 6.5.