MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, August 7th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Nationals
O’Grady is 2-1, 5.40 in five starts this year (under 3-2). Miami won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1

Scherzer is 4-0, 2.56 in his last seven starts; he left his last outing with neck spasms. His last six starts went over. Washington is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-1

Marlins are 7-4 in last 11 games; their last four games stayed under. Marlins are 8-10 in road series openers. Washington is 4-5 in last nine games; over is 6-3 in last nine home games. Nationals are 2-6 in last eight home series openers.

Padres @ Reds
Chacin is 5-0, 2.04 in his last six starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Padres are 5-2 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-3

Stephenson is 0-2, 5.28 in three starts this year (under 3-0); Reds lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

San Diego lost three of last four games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Padres are 5-12 in road series openers. Cincinnati lost three of last four games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games. Reds are 8-6 in last 14 home series openers.

Cubs @ Giants
Arrieta is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Cubs are 4-7 in his last 11 road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-3

Moore is 0-4, 6.45 in his last seven starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Giants are 1-6 in his last even home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-16-4

Chicago lost four of last five games; their last four road games stayed under. Cubs are 6-2 in last eight road series openers. Giants lost five of last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five.

American League

Orioles @ Angels
Bundy is 2-0, 4.19 in his last three starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Orioles are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-2

Ramirez is 3-2, 2.48 In his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Angels are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-5

Baltimore won seven of last nine games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Orioles are 2-5 in last seven home series openers. Angels won six of their last eight home games, but lost last two; five of their last seven games overall went over.

Interleague

Tigers @ Pirates
Zimmerman is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Detroit is 3-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10

Williams is 1-1, 4.28 in his last five starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Pirates are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2

Tigers won six of last nine games; under is 4-2 in their last six. Detroit is 4-7 in last 11 road series openers. Pittsburgh won three of last four games; under is 17-3-1 in last 21 home games. Pirates are 8-10 in home series openers.

Brewers @ Twins
Suter is 2-1, 2.80 in his last six starts (under 5-2). Brewers are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1

Santana is 2-2, 3.97 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Twins are 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-3

Brewers won three of last four games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Milwaukee is 10-8 in road series openers. Minnesota is 0-8 in game following its last eight wins; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Twins are 9-9 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Royals
Martinez is 1-1, 4.88 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Cardinals are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-2

Kennedy is 1-1, 7.07 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven home starts. Royals are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3

St Louis is 8-5 in last 13 games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Cardinals are 6-11 in road series openers. Royals lost five of last seven games; over is 3-1 in their last four. KC is 10-8 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mia-Wsh: O’Grady 4-1; Scherzer 14-8
SD-Cin: Chacin 13-9; Stephenson 1-2
Chi-SF: Arrieta 11-11; Moore 6-16

American League
Balt-LAA: Bundy 13-8; Ramirez 12-9

Interleague
Det-Pitt: Zimmerman 8-13; Williams 7-9
Mil-Min: Suter 3-4; Santana 12-10
StL-KC: Martinez 10-12; Kennedy 10-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Wsh: O’Grady 2-5; Scherzer 7-22
SD-Cin: Chacin 8-22; Stephenson 1-3
Chi-SF: Arrieta 6-22; Moore 8-22

American League
Balt-LAA: Bundy 3-21; Ramirez 10-21

Interleague

Det-Pitt: Zimmerman 8-21; Williams 5-16
Mil-Min: Suter 0-7; Santana 4-22
StL-KC: Martinez 9-22; Kennedy 4-20

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 58-44 AL, favorites -$653
AL @ NL– 58-51 NL, favorites -$401
Total: 109-102 AL, favorites -$1,054

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 52-50-2
AL @ NL: Over 61-45-4
Total: Over 113-95-6

Armadillosports.com

Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Orioles (7-2 past nine overall, 10-4 past 14 at home)

The Orioles fought back from an 0-2 deficit against the Tigers, evening the four-game set at two apiece after a sound beating of Detroit on Sunday behind Ubaldo Jimenez. Over their past seven games the O's are averaging 5.8 runs per game while allowing just 2.9 runs per outing. That's the type of production that will lead to many wins, and they've mostly been doing it without Mark Trumbo (ribs). Now Baltimore hits the road, facing an Angels team spinning its wheels. The Halos were stunned at home when the A's scored five in the top of the eighth to win it 11-10.The Angels are 6-3 over their past nine games, but they're 1-4 over J.C. Ramirez's past five starts working on full rest.

Coldest team: Giants (4-6 past 10 games)

It's slim pickings on Monday with just 14 temas in action, but the Giants have been cold pretty much all season. They have won three of their past four games, but now they'll face the World Champion Cubs, a team playing much better of late. Chicago has won 11 of their past 12 on the road, and they're 20-7 in their past 27 starts against a left-handed starter. That doesn't bode well for Matt Moore, as the Giants are 3-8 over his past 11 when working on full rest. The Giants are also 1-4 over his past five starts, and 1-6 over his past seven at home.

Hottest pitcher: MaxScherzer, Nationals (12-5, 2.21 ERA)

Scherzer takes the ball as the active leader in the majors in ERA with Clayton Kershaw still on the 10-day disbled list. The man with two different colored eyes hasn't had the best of run support at times this season, but everything is coming up aces lately. Washington is 5-2 over his past seven outing, and they're averaging 9.0 runs per game over the past four outings. The Nationals are 27-11 over Scherzer's past 38 starts overall, 8-3 over his past 11 at home against a team with a losing overall mark and 6-1 across his past seven assignments overall.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-11, 5.80 ERA)

It's been a struggle for Moore all season, as the opposition is hitting .323 aginst him over 139 1/3 innings with a 1.58 WHIP. Moore has yielded the second-most earned runs in the majors at 79, one fewer than Padres SP Clayton Richard, alhough Moore has logged nearly 17 fewer innings. It doesn't get easier for Moore, as he'll be facing the world champs. Chicago has won 11 of its past 12 road games, while going 21-7 across Jake Arrieta's past 28 away games. The Cubs have won four of the past five in this series, although they're just 2-5 in their past seven trips to the Bay Area.

Biggest UNDER run: Cubs (28-11 past 39 road games)

The 'under' has hit frequently over the past 39 games away from the Friendly Confines, going 28-11. In addition, the under is 37-17-3 across the past 57 for the Cubbies against the National League West Division. And for what it's worth, which probably isn't much, the under is 7-0-1 over Chicago's past eight games on a Monday. On the other side of the ledger, the under is 8-2-1 over the past 11 home games for Moore, while going 5-0-1 in hisp ast six at home against a team with an overall winning mark. The over has hit in five of the past six between these two clubs.

Biggest OVER run: Tigers (11-0 past 11 vs. NL Central)

The over has been hitting frequently in games started by Jordan Zimmermann, and their most recent games agianst NL Central teams has been especially entertaining. The over is 4-1-1 over Zimm's past six road outing and 4-1 across his past five starts overall. Zimmermann has been involved in plenty of high-scoring outings when opening a series, too, as the over is 8-1 over his past nine during Game 1 of a series.The over is also a perfect 11-0 over his past 11 against the NL Central, while the over has connected in a perfect 7-of-7 in each of the past seven meetings in this interleague series.

Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals head west on Interstate 70 for their interleague rivalry series against the Royals. The Cards have dominated in recent seasons, going 27-11 over their past 38 trips to Kansas City. St. Louis hopes Carlos Martinez can bounce back, as they're just 2-6 over his past eight outings and 1-4 in his past five on the road. Conversely, Kansas City has won eight of Ian Kennedy's past 10 outings, and they're 5-1 over his past six against teams with a losing overall mark. The Royals are also 11-4 over their past 16 against NL Central foes, while going 10-3 over their past 13 against right-handed starting pitching.

Betcha didn’t know: The 'under' continues to hit in this I-70 rivalry, going 10-2-5 over the past 17 in this series. the under is also 4-1-3 across the past eight at 'The K' in Kansas City. The over has been the story for the Cardinals in interleague games of late, going a perfect 9-0 over their past nine interleague outings and 4-0 in their past four against teams from the American League. The under is 17-6-4 across the past 27 for St. Louis, however, and 5-1-2 over their past eight on the road. The under is also 7-1-2 in K.C.'s past 10 vs. NL Central foes, 7-1 in theirp ast eight against losing teams and 7-3 in their past 10 vs. RHP.

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-175) at Giants

Biggest public underdog: Padres (+125) at Reds

Biggest line move: Pirates (-130 to -155) vs. Tigers

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

San Diego at Cincinnati (-125); Total: 9.5

With no line up for the Marlins and Nationals, we start with a look at the Padres and Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Padres took a short flight from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati and got to settle in for the evening in advance of this matchup. Both the Padres and Reds have gotten some love in the betting market this season. The Reds are a short favorite here and it will be interesting to see which way the market goes.

It’s a little bit surprising that no contenders picked up Jhoulys Chacin at the deadline. Chacin has a respectable 3.99 ERA with a 4.25 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP on the season. His K and BB rates are pretty average and so are the rest of his peripherals. He’s induced ground ball contact on 51.9 percent of balls in play. Quietly, Chacin hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 23, when he got blasted for seven runs on eight hits in just 0.2 innings of work. From May 28 to now, Chacin has a 2.71 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP. He’s posted some fortunate luck and sequencing metrics with an 83.3 percent LOB% and a .256 BABIP with a 50.5 percent ground ball rate, so my natural inclination is to look for some regression. On the other hand, Chacin has allowed just two home runs over his last seven starts and has only allowed 31 hits in that span. Chacin rates very well in the Statcast metrics in terms of exit velocity allowed, so he’s simply inducing a lot of weak contact.

Tim Adleman has a 5.42 ERA with a 5.70 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP on the season in 104.2 innings of work. Adleman is an extreme fly ball pitcher in a bad place to be one of those, as Great American Ball Park has small dimensions and plays even smaller when the weather is warm in the Queen City. Adleman has a good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is too high and the home runs exacerbate that flaw. Adleman ranks 24th in average exit velocity against on fly balls and line drives, which defeats the purpose of being a fly ball guy. He was skipped in the rotation after allowing six runs in 4.1 innings in his last start. Adleman has given up at least one home run in each start dating back to May 26.

Given what I’m seeing from these two pitchers, I’d have to look at the underdog tonight. The Padres have used their bullpen quite a bit lately, as Brad Hand would make his third straight appearance, Craig Stammen has worked three days in a row, and Kirby Yates would be working for the third time in four days, so maybe looking just at the first five innings is the way to go. Either way, I do like the Padres in this spot, whether you play a first five or a full game.

Milwaukee at Minnesota (-125); Total: 9

Despite some talk leading up to the Trade Deadline, Ervin Santana stayed put. He’ll take the hill on Monday night for the Twins against upstart left-hander Brent Suter and the Brewers. Suter is one of the most fascinating pitchers in baseball for me this season. For starters, he’s a Harvard grad, so the cerebral nature of pitching with an 85 mph fastball intrigues me. Second, he’s been terrific since joining the rotation. Suter has a 3.04 ERA with a 3.26 FIP and a 3.96 xFIP in his 50.1 innings of work this season in seven starts and seven relief outings. Suter made a spot start on June 13 and then joined the rotation full-time on July 3. His most recent start was a blip on the radar, but he still struck out seven over just 5.1 innings against one walk, so he simply fell victim to some batted ball luck. Suter had allowed just five earned runs over 30 innings in his previous five starts.

As a starter, Suter has a 2.55 ERA with a 3.03 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP in 35.1 innings. He’s struck out 32 and walked just six. He’s faced a mixed bag of offenses, with the Cubs and Yankees lumped in with the Phillies and Pirates, so it’s not like he’s put up numbers against the league’s dregs. He’s drawing the Twins today, who rank 23rd in wOBA against left-handed pitching at .302. The Twins have a good walk rate in that split, but that doesn’t help much against Suter, who doesn’t walk many batters.

Ervin Santana is still in line for regression per the metrics, but we’ve been waiting on that all season long. Santana has a 3.28 ERA with a 4.81 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP in his 145.1 innings of work. He’s still carrying around a .223 BABIP against and has an 83 percent LOB%. It makes sense that FIP and xFIP aren’t big fans of his work. Santana has a 19.2 percent K% and an 8.2 percent walk rate. A below average strikeout rate and an average walk rate are not conducive to a metric comprised of strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and dingers. Considering Santana is on pace to allow 30 jacks for the first time since 2012, that’s another black mark on his FIP.

The Brewers offense has been dormant for a while now, but I don’t mind this matchup for them. They have a lot of problems with strikeouts against right-handed pitching, but Santana doesn’t really pitch for strikeouts. He pitches for weak contact. His swinging strike rate is a little bit above league average, but nothing earth-shattering. I like Suter in this matchup against the Twins as well, so maybe the under is a better play. I’d go under with a look at the underdog at Target Field tonight.

St. Louis (-120) at Kansas City; Total: 9

The Royals played a lot of baseball with yesterday’s doubleheader. Couple that with the fact that they face Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals are a flipped favorite for Game 1 of the I-70 series. They’ll play two at Kauffman Stadium and then two more at Busch Stadium later in the week. Martinez has been spectacular this season. Martinez has a 3.59 ERA with a 3.81 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP. He has the best strikeout rate of his career at 26 percent and has been able to pitch around an elevated walk rate a bit better than he has in the past by learning how to attack hitters better. I actually think there’s some margin for improvement from Martinez the rest of the way because he has a 15.3 percent HR/FB%. Martinez actually has a higher fly ball rate this season, which, theoretically, should help the HR/FB% because of sample size. Instead, it is 4.7 percent higher than last season and 4.6 percent higher than his career rate.

The launch angle craze is certainly to blame, but I do think that Martinez has gotten a little bit unfortunate with fly balls in play. Martinez has struggled a bit lately. He’s allowed at least five runs in three of his last six starts. Last time out, he walked five against the Brewers and only made it through five innings with three runs allowed. He allowed two earned runs, three total, against the Cubs on July 21, but allowed 10 hits. Since the start of July, Martinez has only struck out 30 batters in 34 innings against 16 walks. He’s allowed seven home runs in those 34 innings. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch recently with his control and command.

Ian Kennedy was slated to go on Saturday, but got pushed to Monday with the rainout, as Ned Yost opted to keep Danny Duffy on something resembling his usual turn and Jake Junis was called up as the 26th man. Kennedy has a 4.60 ERA with a 4.98 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP on the season in his 107.2 innings of work. His K% is down from last season, his BB% is up, and he’s allowed more home runs this year. Kennedy is living on a .239 BABIP against, which is surprising because his ground ball rate has gone up this season. Last year, Kennedy had a 33.2 percent GB% and a .268 BABIP. This season, he has a 38.4 percent GB% and a .239 BABIP. A pitcher’s BABIP doesn’t improve by almost 30 points with a five percent increase in ground balls too often. Kennedy has also seen a significant decrease in pop ups, which should also have an impact on his BABIP.

As a result, I’m not a big believer in Kennedy the rest of the way. Some may point to his below average LOB% and see positive regression, but I’m very concerned about the batted ball metrics and the direction that they could go in the future. Even though Martinez is in this one, and neither offense really impresses me, I’m kind of taking a hard look at the over. Martinez has struggled of late and Kennedy should be in line for some negative regression based on my analysis. We could see some runs here.

Baltimore at Los Angeles (-125); Total: 9

Dylan Bundy and JC Ramirez take the mound tonight at Angel Stadium. It has been a rough year for Bundy. He’s struggled in his 21 starts this season with a 4.24 ERA, a 4.85 FIP, and a 5.16 xFIP. What’s strange to me is that Bundy has become a very extreme fly ball guy in a run environment that punishes pitchers like that. He’s got a 32.3 percent GB% on the season. He’s on a similar pace as last season in terms of home runs allowed, but Steamer projections have him giving up 31 if he works 48 more innings.

Sometimes it’s hard to separate stats when a pitcher worked in both relief and the rotation the previous season. Bundy’s strikeout rate is down 3.3 percent from last season, though his walk rate is down 1.2 percent. The fly ball rate has lowered his BABIP to .262, but the decline in strikeouts has hurt his ability to strand runners at the same clip as last season. Bundy had 72 K in 71.2 innings as a starter last season with a .230/.313/.443 slash against. This season, he has just 97 strikeouts in 127.1 innings with a .241/.308/.439 slash against. He had a 4.52 ERA as a starter last season and has that 4.24 this season. So, in some respects, Bundy’s actually shown improvement, it just hasn’t felt like it.

Command against left-handers is Bundy’s biggest problem. He has a 23.9 percent K% against righties with a 6.3 percent BB%. Lefties have only struck out 12.8 percent of the time with a 9.2 percent BB%. The slash difference is huge, with lefties swinging at a .266/.339/.486 clip and righties at a .219/.279/.398 clip.

JC Ramirez has been a savior for the Angels this season. His numbers aren’t great, with a 4.03 ERA, a 4.61 FIP, and a 4.36 xFIP, but for a guy that hasn’t started regularly since 2011 with the Philadelphia Phillies Double-A team, the fact that he has been effective over 21 starts and three relief appearances has been huge for the Angels as they deal with another frustrating year of pitcher injuries. Ramirez has only allowed seven earned runs across his last five starts, but he’s had some serious batted ball and sequencing luck in some of those outings. Ramirez only has 20 strikeouts in those 32.2 innings of work and he has walked 17 batters. A .253 BABIP against and an 84.6 percent LOB% have been a big help.

My inclination here is to fire on Baltimore. Bundy fares better against right-handed hitters and the Angels don’t have a whole lot of lefties that induce fear. He’s also at Angel Stadium, which is more forgiving than Oriole Park or the other AL East parks for guys with command problems. Ramirez seems to be teetering on the brink of a blow-up and has given up 19 home runs this season. The Orioles are a very aggressive lineup, which will neutralize some of his recent walk troubles, but his pitch-to-contact style might be a problem.

I’ll roll the dice with several dogs tonight and see how things go.

Cubs, Giants meet
By: StatFox.com

The Cubs will be hoping to avoid a fifth loss in six games when they take on the lousy Giants on Monday.

Chicago currently has the lead in the NL Central, but it is only by a half of a game. The Cubs are 58-52 right now, but the Brewers are close behind at 59-54. The Cubs had seemingly righted the ship in the past few weeks, but going 5-5 in their past 10 games is not what they had in mind. This is, however, a very winnable series against the Giants, and the Cubs will be feeling like they have a great chance to sweep here. The starters in this Monday night game are set to be RHP Jake Arrieta (10-8, 3.88 ERA, 124 K) for Chicago and LHP Matt Moore (3-11, 5.80 ERA, 104 K) for San Francisco. Arrieta has not been at his best this season, but the Giants are still at a disadvantage on the mound here. One trend that favors Chicago in this game is the fact that San Francisco is a lousy 17-36 against the money line versus NL teams with an on base percentage of .325 or worse this season. The Giants have, however, been lousy against everybody, so which team they are facing hasn’t necessarily mattered this season.

The Cubs can really use a win in this series against the Giants and Jake Arrieta is somebody they’ll be happy to have on the mound here. The righty is rolling right now, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts. He has also pitched at least six innings in each of those games. If he can give Chicago another outing like that one then the team will be in good shape here. On offense, the player that must be mentioned first is C Willson Contreras (.281 BA, 21 HR, 70 RBI). Contreras has been an absolute monster recently, as he has now homered five times in the past four games. Contreras has racked up 11 RBI in those contests, and he is really seeing the ball well right now. Considering he’s going up against a lefty here, it wouldn’t be shocking if he goes yard again. He is batting .299 against lefties this season, but only .274 against righties. Another guy to keep an eye on is 3B Kris Bryant (.274 BA, 20 HR, 48 RBI). Bryant has had a down year, but he is on a four-game hitting streak entering this one. Perhaps he will get himself going and finish off the season strong.

The Giants have been miserable this season, but they will still be playing for pride in this series. They love to beat the Cubs whenever they can, so expect them to play with plenty of intensity here. San Francisco will really need a good game from Matt Moore in this one, though. Moore has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his past five starts, and it’d be tough for the Giants to win if he is not better than that in this one. San Francisco does not have the same firepower in its lineup as Chicago, so this will need to be a low-scoring game. On offense, the Giants can only hope that guys like C Buster Posey (.324 BA, 11 HR, 48 RBI) and OF Hunter Pence (.251 BA, 9 HR, 49 RBI) can get it going here. Both are very capable of coming through at the plate, and the Giants will be counting on them against Arrieta on Monday.

Monday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

San Diego vs. Cincinnati

Odds: San Diego (+101) vs. Cincinnati (-111); Total 9.5

It's a very light board to kick off the week of MLB action tonight and chances are there will be a few other games featuring more prominent contenders that will garner more attention from the betting public tonight. But I see tonight's series opener between the Padres and Reds as one of the better betting opportunities on this light board.

Neither team has done much winning this year to garner any sort of consistent support from the general betting masses, but that doesn't mean we can't cash in on a game between two basement dwellers.

A winning wager isn't worth more simply because it was placed on a more popular game, and often times you can find “easier” winners in these games that get lost in the shuffle.

Hopefully that's the case tonight.

Based on the opening line, this game has already seen some sharp bettors get out early on this game and show some support to the visiting Padres on the ML. San Diego's line has dropped from +115 open to it's current price with VegasInsider.com showing about 35% support. San Diego did sweep the Reds back in mid-June, and the finale of that series was won by tonight's starter Jhoulys Chacin (4-2).

Sometimes it's as simple as past results that bettors like to back – and the underdog - in games featuring two teams nobody wants, and that appears to be the case with this move. Neither team has been playing great baseball of late, but the Padres are 6-0 SU the last six times Chacin has started for them, and with plus-money odds on him tonight, you can see why the Padres have garnered some support here.

However, with most of the value sucked out of the San Diego ML option now, and the Reds and there one win in their last four games aren't something I'm willing to lay any sort of juice with. So it's on to the total in another line that's already seen some movement.

Tonight's total has stayed at 9.5 the entire time, but after opening at -110, the majority of support has come in on the low side, putting the 'under' as chalk. I get the line of thinking in that bad teams typically don't score often and putting two of them together – especially with Chacin's hot streak of late on the mound – should lead to a low-scoring game.

Yet, the flip side of that coin is that bad teams also give up plenty of runs to lose the majority of their tilts, and putting two of them in the same game should lead to quite a few runs scored. That, along with a preference to be in the betting minority here – VegasInsider.com has about 40% on the 'over' right now – is the approach I'm taking tonight.

Cincinnati has always been a hitter's ballpark, and Reds home games this year have averaged 10.23 runs per game. That's only equated to a 29-27 O/U record for Cincinnati, but the 5.45 runs/game they've allowed here usually puts them behind the eight-ball and if Cincy's bats are going (which is quite often the case), that's when the near .500 O/U record takes shape.

But the Padres give up 5.48 runs/game away from home this season and when you put that number together with the Reds runs allowed/home game you get nearly 11 runs. That's more than enough to cash an 'over' wager tonight.

Finally, the Padres are 7-2-1 O/U in their last 10 road games on the whole, and tonight's starter for Cincy – Tim Adleman – has really fallen off a cliff of late. Adleman's 7.71 ERA over his last three starts is extremely rough, and with the 13 runs Cincinnati gave up yesterday vs. St Louis, Adleman's not going to get much help from his tired bullpen when they enter the fray. The Reds are 9-4 O/U when Adleman gets the call after Cincinnati lost last time out, and the Padres are 7-3-1 O/U themselves when coming off a defeat.

With everyone expecting next to nothing in this game between two teams patiently waiting for 2018 to arrive, I believe we see some offensive fireworks tonight in a game that could reach double digits before the 7th inning arrives.

Best Bet: San Diego/Cincinnati Over 9.5

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-310, 8 )

The Marlins visit the nation's capital today for the first of four games against the National League East leading Washington Nationals. Welcome to town, Miami - here's Max Scherzer. Good luck.

These two clubs met last week in Florida with the Marlins taking two of the three games and "Mad Max" only lasted one inning in his start during that series after being removed with a stiff neck. That can only mean bad news for The Fish today as Scherzer is well rested and will be more cranky than usual after having to endure a week of rehab/treatment.

The Nats have lost both of Scherzer's starts against the Marlins this season, but it's certainly no fault of his. In his first outing against Miami he flirted with a no-no and last week he only participated in one inning. His combined numbers this season against the Marlins add up to nine innings pitched, zero earned runs, two hits allowed, 11 strikeouts, and one walk.

Lefty hurler Chris O'Grady will get the start today for the Marlins and he has just five major league starts under his belt. O'Grady was actually the opposing starter in the game last week that Scherzer was removed from after only one inning. He didn't exactly run with the opportunity - instead he gave up six runs, seven hits, and two walks in only three innings of work.

One thing to really watch for from O'Grady today is his walk total. In two career starts on the road he has an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.70 and a major contributing factor to these high numbers is that he has allowed eight bases on balls in just 10 innings of road work. That is 7.2 walks per nine innings - not a good number.

The Nationals own the top run producing offense in the National League, averaging 5.486 runs per game and their team batting average is higher against left-handed pitching (.281) than against righties (.272).

Pick: Nationals -1.5 (-110)

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds (-115, 9.5)

The Padres and Reds open their four-game series Monday evening with a meeting of two starting pitchers headed in exact opposite directions.

San Diego has won all three previous meetings with Cincinnati this season and will send their ace to the mound today on the road at Great American Ball Park. Jhoulys Chacin is as hot as they come in the category of major league starting pitchers right now. The Padres have won Chacin's last six starts and they closed as underdogs in every one of them. Guess What? They're dogs again today.

Chacin has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 23 and during his current six-game team winning streak he owns an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.0935.

Critics of Padres backers today will point to Chacin's 7.35 road ERA this season, but over his last three starts on the road he has an ERA of just 2.45 and a WHIP of 0.982. He appears to have figured it out.

The Reds will counter with right-hander Tim Adleman and he hasn't done much of anything right this season other than eat up innings and assist the Reds in securing a better draft position. Adleman's team win/loss this season is 7-12 and his ERA currently sits at 5.42. Over his last four starts he has an ERA of 8.27 and a WHIP of 1.742.

Keeping the ball in the ballpark is a big issue for Adleman as he has surrendered at least one home run in 12 consecutive starts and has allowed 24 home runs in 20 starts this season.

The Reds have lost eight of Adleman's last 10 starts and it won't get any easier today with an emerging star opposing him.

Pick: Padres +105

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 106-97-12

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: JC Ramirez, Los Angeles Angels (10-9, 4.03 ERA, $476)

This isn't exactly the highest profile Streaking Starter, but JC Ramirez has been very good for the Angels and deserves a bit of shine.

The Halos have won two of his last three starts and during those three appearances he owns an ERA of 1.31 in 20.2 innings of work. His high walk rate continues to be a bit of an issue, but if he keeps inducing ground balls and double plays all will be forgiven.

Ramirez and the Angels are -125 favorites at home against the Orioles tonight.

Slumping: Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants (3-11, 5.80 ERA, $-1159)

Giants' starter Matt Moore is a regular in the Slumping Starter section and with a team loss in his last start he has actually surpassed teammate Madison Bumgarner as the least profitable starting pitcher in all of baseball at $-1159.

The Giants have lost 10 of Moore's last 13 outings and tonight he will get the National League Central leading Chicago Cubs as a big +165 home underdog.

Monday's Top Trends

* Over is 11-0 in the Detroit Tigers' last 11 vs. National League Central. Tigers/Pirates Total: 9.
* Under is 12-3 in the Milwaukee Brewers' last 15 road games. Brewers/Twins Total: 9.
* Over is 9-0 in the St. Louis Cardinals last nine interleague games. Cardinals/Royals Total: 9.
* The Chicago Cubs are 11-1 in their last 12 road games. -185 today @ Giants.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening in D.C. where the Nats are scheduled to take on the Marlins. It's should clear out in time for first pitch, but thunderstorms are very unpredictable.

As usual, the wind will be blowing straight out to center field tonight (12-16 miles per hour) at AT&T Park in San Francisco. The total for tonight's game between the Cubs and Giants is currently set at 8.