National League
Giants @ Marlins
Cueto is 0-2, 4.56 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Giants are 10-2 in his road starts.
Fernandez is 0-2, 6.55 in his last two starts; three of his last four home starts went over. Miami is 9-3 in his home starts.
Giants lost 11 of last 14 road games; they’re 3-9 in last 12 road series openers. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Miami is 10-5 in its last 15 home games, 8-10 in home series openers. Last five Marlin home games went over the total.
Braves @ Brewers
Whalen allowed four runs in five IP (98 PT) in his MLB debut.
Davies is 4-0, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Brewers won seven of his last eight home starts.
Braves won four of last five games, are 7-11 in last 18 road series openers. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Milwaukee lost three of last four games but won six of last seven home games; they’re 9-9 in home series openers. Under is 9-3-1 in last 13 games at Miller Park.
Reds @ Cardinals
Reed is 0-6, 9.07 in eight starts this year (over 6-0-2).
Wacha is 2-0, 3.71 in his last three starts; over is 12-3-1 in his last 16 starts. Cardinals are 6-5 in his home starts.
Cincinnati is 13-7 in its last 20 games, 6-4 in last 10 road series openers. Under is 6-1 in Reds’ last seven road games. Cardinals lost six of last eight games, are 8-11 in home series openers– over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Phillies @ Dodgers
Eflin is 1-2, 5.76 in his last four starts (over 6-4). Phillies split his six road starts.
Urias is 1-1, 3.77 in his last six starts; his last three went over. Dodgers won all four of his home starts.
Philly is 6-4 in its last ten games, 5-1 in last six road series openers. Over is 10-5 in its last 15 games. Dodgers won three of last four games, are 5-2 in last seven home series openers. Under is 14-7 in their last 21 home games.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays
Odorizzi is 3-0, 0.67 in his last four starts; he’s thrown 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Four of his last five starts stayed under. Rays lost his last three road starts.
Dickey is 1-3, 7.89 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Blue Jays are 2-10 in his home starts.
Rays lost four of last five road games, are 6-11 in road series openers. Tampa Bay’s last five road games stayed under. Toronto won five of last seven home games; they’re 7-11 in home series openers. Over is 4-0-1 in last five games at SkyDome.
Astros @ Twins
McHugh is 0-2, 12.91 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Astros won three of his last four road starts.
Duffey is 1-2, 11.25 in his last four starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine outings. Minnesota won three of his last four home starts.
Astros lost 10 of last 13 games, are 7-10 in road series openers. Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Houston games. Minnesota won eight of last 11 games; they’re 7-11 in home series openers. Last nine Twins games went over the total.
Orioles @ A’s
Gausman is 2-2, 3.82 in his last four starts; six of his last eight stayed under. Baltimore lost seven of his last eight road starts.
Graveman is 0-1, 8.71 in his last two starts; four of his last six stayed under. Oakland won his last four home starts.
Orioles won five of last seven games, are 9-9 in road series openers. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Baltimore road games. Oakland lost eight of last nine games; they’re 9-9 in home series openers. Five of A’s last seven home games stayed under the total.
Tigers @ Mariners
Fulmer is 2-0, 2.90 in his last six starts; three of his last four stayed under. Detroit is 10-2 in his road starts.
Iwakuma is 6-1, 2.95 in his last seven starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under. Seattle won his last seven home starts.
Tigers won 11 of last 13 games, are 7-11 in road series openers. Under is 10-4-2 in Detroit’s last 16 road games. Seattle won five of last six games, is 10-8 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven home series openers.
Interleague
Rangers @ Rockies
Hamels is 3-1, 2.22 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Texas is 7-4 in his road starts.
Anderson is 4-0, 3.45 in his last five starts (under 7-3); Colorado won his last four home starts.
Rangers won seven of last ten games, but lost last six road series openers. Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Texas games. Colorado lost three of last four games, is 9-5 in last 14 home series openers. Under is 10-6 in Rockies’ last 16 home games.
Teams’ record when this pitcher starts
SF-Mia– Cueto 17-5 (1-3 last 4); Fernandez 14-7
Atl-Mil– Whalen 1-0; Davies 11-8
Cin-StL– Reed 0-8; Wacha 12-10
Phil-LA– Eflin 5-5; Urias 6-3
TB-Tor– Odorizzi 11-12; Dickey 8-15
Hst-Min– McHugh 13-9; Duffey 8-10
Balt-A’s– Gausman 8-11; Graveman 10-11
Det-Sea– Fulmer 15-2; Iwakuma 13-9
Tex-Colo– Hamels 16-6; Anderson 6-4 (5-0 last 5)
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning
SF-Mia– Cueto 6-22; Fernandez 6-21
Atl-Mil– Whalen 1-1; Davies 4-19
Cin-StL– Reed 5-8; Wacha 6-22
Phil-LA– Eflin 3-10; Urias 2-9
TB-Tor– Odorizzi 4-23; Dickey 6-23
Hst-Min– McHugh 9-22; Duffey 6-18
Balt-A’s– Gausman 8-19; Graveman 4-21
Det-Sea– Fulmer 4-17; Iwakuma 3-22
Tex-Colo– Hamels 5-22; Anderson 3-10
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays enter the week at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Blue Jays at 63-49 are in a fierce battle for top spot in the East while Rays at 45-65 are A.L. East bottom dwellers. This three games series therefore offers Blue Jays an opportunity to keep pace or improve on their placement.
However, won't be a cake walk. For what ever reason, Tampa seems to bring its best against Toronto. The Jays have been on the wrong end of the scoreboard in six of ten meetings this season including being swept in a three game series last time Rays paid a visit.
What's more troubling in the opener, Jays have R.A. Dickey toeing the rubber which serves as a huge red flag. Blue Jays are 2-10 in the knuckle baller's home starts, 3-12 his last fifteen in front of the home audience. Jays are also on a 2-5 skid vs Rays with Dickey, 7-10 slide vs the division rival since his arrival back in 2013.
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Tigers (10-2 past 12)
The Tigers continue to breathe down the neck of the Indians. They head out west to battle the Seattle Mariners in Monday's series opener, looking to extend their impressive run against the American League West. Detroit has won eight straight against the AL West, and they have also won each of their past seven series openers. The streaking Tigers have won nine of their past 10 against teams with a winning overall record, and 6-1 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching. In addition, they're 15-2 in Michael Fulmer's past 17 starts, and 4-0 in Fulmer's past four against teams with a winning overall mark.
Coldest team: Athletics (1-8 past nine)
The woes continued for the A's, getting swept at home against the Cubs. They were outscored 13-3 in the series, and now set their sights on the visiting Baltimore Orioles. In their first three-game series of the season at Camden Yards in early May, Baltimore won two of three while outscoring the A's 20-13. The O's have won four of the past five against AL West fores, but they're 5-18 in their past 23 road starts by Kevin Gausman. The O's are also 2-8 in Gausman's past 10 road outings against a team with a losing record. However, the A's are just 1-7 in their past eight against a right-handed starting pitcher while going 0-6 in their past six against teams with a winning overall mark.
Hottest pitcher: Jake Odorizzi, Rays (6-5, 3.70 ERA)
Odorizzi appears to be a lot more comfortable lately, perhaps because the non-waiver trade deadline has passed and he wasn't moved. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over his past three outings, issuing just two walks with 16 strikeouts over the past 20 2/3 innings. The Rays have won four of the past five meetings against the Blue Jays, while the Jays are just 2-5 in R.A. Dickey's past seven against Tampa Bay.
Coldest pitcher: Cody Reed, Cincinnati (0-6, 7.30 ERA)
Reed has been horrific for the Redlegs, going 0-6 with a 7.30 ERA overall. He hasn't improved much over his past three outings, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA. A major problem with Reed is his frequent issuances of free passes, walking 15 in just 40 2/3 innings. The Reds have lost eight straight with Reed on the hill, including 0-4 in his past four road assignments. They're 0-5 in his past five against teams with an overall winning record, too.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (0-7-1 past eight)
The 'under' is 0-6-1 in the past seven road games for the Texas Rangers. That streak will be put to the test in a road series in Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. The 'under' is also 5-0-1 in their past six interleague road games, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Colorado, the 'under' is 5-1-1 in their past seven interleague affairs, and 14-6 in their past 20 against teams with an overall winning record.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (9-0 past nine)
The Twins offense has been doing the job at the dish lately, posting five or more runs in seven of their past nine outings and 10 of the past 14 contests. The 'over' is also 6-0-2 in Tyler Duffey's past eight home starts, and 10-1-3 in his past 14 assignments overall. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in the past four head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and 3-0-1 in Collin McHugh's past four starts against Minnesota.
Matchup to watch: Marlins vs. Giants
It's 'Jose Day' in Miami, and that usually means the Marlins are successful. Fernandez is 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA in 38 career starts at Marlins Park. He'll be angling to avenge a loss in San Francisco April 23, as he gave up four runs over six frames in that loss. The Giants were 16-2 in All-Star Johnny Cueto's first 18 outings, but they're 1-3 over his past four assignment. It's hard to predict who will win the game, but it is likely to be close. In 10 of 13 games played between these clubs at Marlins Park the game has been decided by one or two runs.
Betcha didn’t know: The Cardinals look to maintain their dominance with Michael Wacha on the bump against the Reds. They're 7-0 in his past seven starts against Cincinnati, and 4-0 in Wacha's past four home assignments against the Reds. Cincinnati has won just four of their past 13 against St. Louis, and they're 22-53 in their past 75 trips to Busch Stadium II in the Lou. While St. Louis has won just two of their past 10 against a left-handed starting pitcher, and 1-8 in their past nine at home vs. LHP. However, they're 6-2 in Wacha's past eight outings, and 25-11 in his past 36 at home.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-205) vs. Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+110) at Mariners
Biggest line move: Orioles (+130 to +140) at Athletics
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Houston, We Have a Problem
Just as the Astros seemed to be finding their way in the American League playoff race, they’ve hit a major pothole.
Houston has scored a paltry 17 runs over its last nine games, going 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 O/U over that span. The good news: an upcoming four-game set with the Twins could reverse both trends.
The Astros won two of three while going 2-0-1 O/U in its previous three-game set with the Twins, and while Minnesota has been scoring a ton of runs, it still has a 4.48 ERA since the break.
Sanchez’s Starter Swansong?
The Blue Jays have decided against shuffling ace starter Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen - at least for now. But the hard-throwing right-hander may be making his final start of the year Saturday afternoon against Houston.
Sanchez’s overall numbers look fantastic (11-2, 2.85 ERA, .289 opponent OBP), but he’s just a middle-of-the-pack starter in terms of units (-65).
Keep a close eye on Saturday’s total. While the Astros are having all sorts of trouble generating offense, Sanchez, despite going 6-16 O/U in 22 games season, has seen an average of 10.2 runs scored in six day starts this season - well up from a 7.75 runs-per-game total over his 16 night outings.
Thanks for Nothing
The National League Central is on pace to accomplish something that hasn’t been done in six years - and it isn’t good.
All five NL Central teams are at a negative unit return heading into the new week; the Pittsburgh Pirates lead the way at “only” 141 units lost, followed by the Chicago Cubs (-278), Milwaukee Brewers (-367), St. Louis Cardinals (-482) and Cincinnati Reds (-844).
If the numbers hold, the NL Central will be the first division to be without a positive money line since the American League West all finished with negative units won in 2010. It would be a surprising result for a division that, just last year, was considered among the strongest in baseball.
Hitting Notes
The Minnesota Twins have been a red-hot over play (more on that below), and they have a few of their hitters to thank - Joe Mauer chief among them. Maker’s best days are clearly behind him, but he still racked up five straight multi-hit games this week, driving in nine runs in six outings.
Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado put on an incredible show in Sunday’s 10-2 drubbing of the Chicago White Sox, swatting three home runs and driving in seven. The Orioles improved to 14-8 SU and 10-11-1 O/U in games where Machado goes deep.
Pitching Notes
Marlins ace Jose Fernandez may be one of the top under options in the league (8-13), but low totals have predictably bucked this trend. Over has played in five of Fernandez’s seven starts with a total below 7. Fernandez and the Marlins are facing a total of 6 1/2 entering Monday’s tilt with visiting San Francisco.
Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood has been victimized by a bizarre trend that has seen him go 2-9 O/U in 11 home starts. Despite being supported by high-octane offence, Chatwood’s 11 home starts have seen the home team score a paltry average of 3.36 runs per game. Chatwood goes Tuesday against visiting Texas.
Totals Trend
The Twins are the hottest totals play right now, racking up nine consecutive overs. They’re an impressive 6-3 SU over that span, and will look to add to that win total against the Astros this week.
Monday's Weather Report
There is a chance of thunderstorms and warm, muggy temperatures in the mid-90's for first pitch tonight in Denver where the Rockies will host the Texas Rangers. The total for tonight's game is set at 10.5.
Cool temperatures are expected in Oakland tonight for the game between the A's and the Baltimore Orioles. I can assure you that summer isn't over yet, but it's going to feel like it tonight in the Bay Area with evening temperatures dipping into the 50's! The total tonight is set at 8.5.
Rangers, Rockies square off
By Sportsbook.ag
TEXAS RANGERS (65-47) at COLORADO ROCKIES (55-56)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Texas -115, Colorado +115, Total: 10.5
The Rangers will be looking to win their third straight game when they face the Rockies in Colorado on Monday.
Texas has been playing extremely well recently and the team has now won seven of its past 10 games. One reason the Rangers are playing this way is because they are really hitting the ball. Texas has racked up at least 11 hits in three of its past four games.
The team will be hoping to keep that up and should be able to do so, as hits come even easier in Colorado. The Rockies, meanwhile, have now lost three of their past four games, but this team is still suddenly in the playoff race in the National League. If they can string together some victories then they will be in very good shape moving forward.
The pitching matchup in this game is going to be pretty lopsided, as LHP Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA, 138 K) is on the mound for Texas and LHP Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25 ERA, 52 K) is going to be giving it a go for Colorado.
Hamels has been incredible all season and is the Rangers’ best pitcher, but Anderson has been pretty impressive for the Rockies this season. It is worth nothing that the Rangers are 44-21 against the money line when the line is +125 to -125 this season.
Texas could, however, be without DH Carlos Beltran (Quad) in this one, as he is listed as questionable for this game.
Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and he has now allowed just five earned runs over his past four starts. The lefty has, however, had some issues with his control, as he has walked eight batters over his past three games.
It’s crucial that he is able to throw strikes in this game, as the Rockies are the type of team that will make him pay for his mistakes.
Offensively, Texas could really use some production out of 3B Adrian Beltre (.271, 16 HR, 65 RBI). Beltre is one of the team’s best hitters and has really been struggling lately, as his average has dipped from .280 to .271 over the past 10 games.
If he doesn’t start to get some hits soon then things are going to be tough on this Rangers team, especially in a potentially Beltran-less game against the Rockies on Monday.
The Rockies are not known for having great pitching, but Tyler Anderson has been brilliant since beginning his short career with Colorado.
The Rockies’ lefty has allowed three or less earned runs in nine of his 10 starts and that is all a team like Colorado can ask for out of its starters.
This is the second most high-scoring team in baseball, so quality starts are huge when the Rockies can get them. Offensively, both 3B Nolan Arenado (.283, 29 HR, 87 RBI) and OF David Dahl (.370, 3 HR, 7 RBI) are guys to keep an eye on in this one.
Arenado has been one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball all season and will be feeling confident coming into this one, as he went 3-for-3 with two homers, a double and five RBI on Sunday.
Dahl, meanwhile, has made his transition to the pros look easy and has been a machine since getting called up. He’ll be hoping to continue to spark his team moving forward.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Rangers (-115, 10.5) at Rockies
Texas and Colorado projects to be a high-scoring game tonight. Both pitchers, Cole Hamels for the Rangers and Tyler Anderson for the Rockies, project to have poor outings in this game based on my numbers. The Rockies are averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season with a .304 batting average, while their opponents average 6.4 runs and bat .301. Overall, Colorado's home games have averaged 12.7 total runs per game in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field.
Phillies at Dodgers (-215, 8u15)
The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Julio Urias tonight. My numbers project a sterling outing for him, plus he is backed by a Los Angeles bullpen that has a fantastic 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home this year. Philadelphia will counter with Zach Eflin who projects to have a rough outing with a 5.19 ERA in his six road starts this season. The line on this game is high for a good reason. The best value is with the Dodgers -1.5 +100 on the runline.