MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, July 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Reds
Strasburg is 1-1, 5.73 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Washington is 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1
Feldman is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Reds are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2
Nationals won eight of last ten games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Cincinnati lost its last four home games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games.
Brewers @ Pirates
Suter is 11, 3.18 in three starts this year (under 3-0). Brewers are 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1
Kuhl is 1-0, 2.81 in his last three starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Pirates are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2
Milwaukee is 11-3 in its last 14 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Brewers are 8-6 in road series openers. Pittsburgh won seven of last nine games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 home games. Pirates are 6-9 in home series openers.
Cardinals @ Mets
Wainwright is 3-0, 4.50 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. St Louis is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-3
Wheeler is 0-4, 7.42 in his last six starts (over 10-4-1). Mets are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1
Cardinals are 6-12 in last 18 road games, 4-9 in road series openers; under is 5-0 in their last five games. New York won five of last seven home games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Mets are 8-2 in last ten home series openers.
Phillies @ Marlins
Eickhoff is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten starts. Phillies are 0-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1
Koehler is 0-3, 16.76 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Miami is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6
Phillies lost seven of last nine games; under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. Phils are 7-9 in road series openers. Miami lost its last five home games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine home games. Marlins are 6-9 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Braves
Lester is 0-2, 13.11 in his last three starts; over is 10-6 in his last 16 starts. Cubs are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-3
Teheran is 1-0, 1.35 in his last two starts; over is 9-4-1 in his last 14. Atlanta is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-2
Cubs won their last four road games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games. Chicago is 7-8 in road series openers. Atlanta is 5-2 in its last seven games; six of their last nine games went over. Braves are 8-6 in home series openers.
Padres @ Rockies
Perdomo is 3-0, 3.31 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Padres are 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-3
Marquez is 1-1, 4.76 in his last four starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13. Colorado is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3
San Diego won seven of last ten games; under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games. Padres are 4-10 in road series openers. Rockies are 3-13 in last 16 road games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. Colorado is 11-3 in home series openers.
American League
Rangers @ Orioles
Cashner is 2-2, 4.70 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Rangers are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-3
Tillman is 0-5, 10.26 in his last eight starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. orioles are 3-4 in his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-7-3
Rangers won five of last seven games (under 6-0-1). Texas is 6-9 in road series openers. Baltimore lost 8 of last 10 games- they lost last four home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Stroman is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Toronto is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-1
Rodriguez comes off the DL here, is making his first start since June 1; he is 3-1, 4.56 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Boston is 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4
Blue Jays lost three of last four games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Toronto is 8-7 in road series openers. Boston lost six of last nine games; they’re 11-4 in home series openers. Under is 6-1-2 in their last nine games.
New York @ Minnesota
Mitchell is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-6, 4.63 in 40 MLB games (81.2 IP, 8 starts). He is 2-2, 3.60 in nine AAA starts this year.
Mejia is 3-1, 2.59 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Twins are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3
New York lost six of last nine games; they’re 8-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Twins lost lost four of last five games; they’re 8-7 in home series openers- under is 9-6 in their last 15 games.
Mariners @ Astros
Miranda is 1-2, 5.34 in his last five starts; his last three starts went over. Seattle is 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-1
McCullers is 1-1, 5.19 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Houston is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-3
Mariners won their last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five. Seattle is 6-8 in road series openers. Houston is 8-3 in its last eleven games; over is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Astros are 1-5 in last six home series openers.
Tigers @ Royals
Zimmerman is 0-3, 5.27 in his last five starts; over is 11-4-1 in his last 16. Detroit is 1-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9
Vargas is 7-0, 2.96 in his last eight starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Royals are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-2
Detroit won three of last four games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Tigers are 6-8 in road series openers. Kansas City lost five of its last six games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Royals are 10-5 in home series openers.
Rays @ A’s
Odorizzi is 1-1, 7.62 in his last five starts; his last seven starts went over. Rays are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-4
Gossett is 0-2, 8.16 in his last three starts (over 3-3). A’s are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Rays won four of last five games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in road series openers. Oakland won seven of last nine games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. A’s are 7-8 in home series openers.
Interleague
Indians @ Giants
Tomlin is 1-1, 6.14 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Cleveland is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-2
Moore is 0-2, 7.43 in his last three starts (over 8-8-2). Giants are 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-14-2
Indians lost their last four games; they’re 6-9 in road series openers. Under is 8-5-2 in their last 13 games. Giants lost six of last seven games; they’re 5-8 in home series openers. Over is 4-0-1 in their last five games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Cin: Strasburg 13-4; Feldman 8-10
Mil-Pitt: Suter 1-2; Kuhl 6-12
StL-NY: Wainwright 11-7; Wheeler 6-9
Phil-Mia: Eickhoff 3-12; Koehler 3-7
Chi-Atl: Lester 10-9; Teheran 9-9
SD-Col: Perdomo 7-8; Marquez 8-6
American League
Tex-Balt: Cashner 6-8; Tillman 5-7
Tor-Bos: Stroman 11-7; Rodriguez 7-3
NY-Min: Mitchell 0-0; Mejia 6-7
Sea-Hst: Miranda 10-8; McCullers 12-4
Det-KC: Zimmerman 6-11; Vargas 13-4
TB-A’s: Odorizzi 6-10; Gossett 2-4
Interleague
Clev-SF: Tomlin 6-11; Moore 5-13
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Wsh-Cin: Strasburg 3-17; Feldman 3-18
Mil-Pitt: Suter 0-3; Kuhl 4-18
StL-NY: Wainwright 4-18; Wheeler 6-15
Phil-Mia: Eickhoff 4-15; Koehler 6-10
Chi-Atl: Lester 9-19; Teheran 6-18
SD-Col: Perdomo 5-15; Marquez 4-14
American League
Tex-Balt: Cashner 4-14; Tillman 5-12
Tor-Bos: Stroman 4-18; Rodriguez 3-10
NY-Min: Mitchell 0-0; Mejia 3-13
Sea-Hst: Miranda 7-18; McCullers 3-16
Det-KC: Zimmerman 7-17; Vargas 4-17
TB-A’s: Odorizzi 5-16; Gossett 0-6
Interleague
Clev-SF: Tomlin 6-17; Moore 7-18
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 45-35 AL, favorites -$793
AL @ NL– 47-44 NL, favorites -$390
Total: 88-80 AL, favorites -$1,183
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 46-37-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-37-3
Total: Over 94-74-5
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mariners (4-0 past four overall, 6-1 past seven road games)
The Mariners find themselves 16 1/2 games behind the Astros for second place in the American League West, but this is still an important series for them. They cannot afford to lose ground to the likes of the Angels and Rangers in their division, as well as the Twins, Rays and Royals, for their chance at a wild card. The Mariners have rolled to four straight wins, including three in a row at Chicago White Sox, pulling even in the run differential department. They're trending in the right direction, but that could all potentially fall apart in Houston. The M's are just 2-5 over their past seven against teams with a winning record, although they're 5-2 in Ariel Miranda's past seven road outings and 9-4 in his past 13 against teams with a winning overall mark. Seattle might also have a difficult time against Lance McCullers Jr., as he is 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA overall this season, posting 106 strikeouts over 91 1/3 innings. That includes in his most recent meeting with the M's on June 24 at Safeco Field.
Coldest team: Indians (0-4 past four games overall)
The Indians have stumbled out of the gate in the second half, as they were swept by the Athletics in Oakland by a combined score of 17-6. That includes a loss by All-Star Corey Kluber and fireballer Carlos Carrasco, so things aren't exactly trending in the right direction at the moment for the defending American League champions. However, the lack of travel for their next interleague series, a quick jaunt across the Oakland Bay Bridge, should help them feel better and a little rested. They are just 2-10 over their past 12 games against the National League West and 3-14 in the past 17 interleague battles. They're also a dismal 1-7 across their past eight interleague road outings.
Hottest pitcher: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays (9-5, 3.28 ERA)
Stroman takes the hill Monday night in Fenway Park against the Red Sox in an important series. The Blue Jays are in the basement ofthe American League East, but they're just nine games back of first place. If they're able to make some noise, they might just be buyers and not sellers at the non-waiver trade deadline. Stroman looked great in his last outing against the Astros on July 8, allowing just one run and six hits with three walks and six strikeouts over seven innings to win his ninth game. He will be well rested and ready to go. That's good, too, because he was rocked in his first appearance against the Red Sox back on April 18. He gave up six earned runs and 11 hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a loss.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-9, 6.04 ERA)
The Giants send the left-hander Moore to the hill on Monday to face the ice-cold Indians. Perhaps that will get him untracked, or perhaps facing Moore is the elixir to cure Cleveland's offensive ills. He has served up 15 home runs over 98 1/3 innings across 18 starts this season and the opposition is hitting a robust .307 against him while he has an unsavory 1.69 WHIP overall. Moore has been a little more respectable at home, posting a 2-5 record with a 4.44 ERA over 48 2/3 innings across eight home outings. However, he is a dismal 1-6 with an 8.39 ERA in 10 starts under the lights this season.
Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (5-1 past six, 13-2-1 past 16 overall)
The Pirates have been a total bettors' dream lately, as the 'under' has been nearly automatic for them lately. The under is 4-0-1 in their past five at home against left-handed starting pitchers, 16-5-2 in their past 23 at home and 22-6-2 over the past 30 games overall. In addition, the Bucs have started out slowly in series openers, posting a 6-1 under mark in their past seven Game 1s. The Brewers have been on an under tear lately, too, going 4-1 in their past five and 5-2-1 in their past eight on the road vs. RHP. In addition, Brent Suter has fit right in, with the under going 4-0 over his past four assignments. In addition, the under is 15-4-2 over the past 21 meetings in this series.
Biggest OVER run: Athletics (7-3 past 10 overall)
'Over' and Oakland are two things that generally do not come to mind immediately, but the Athletics have been doing a good job hitting the over lately. They averaged 6.0 runs per game over their final two outings against the Indians to hit the over, and it has hit in seven of the past 10 overall. The over is also 5-1 in Oakland's past six at home, and 6-1 in their past seven at O.co Coliseum against American League clubs. They'll be facing a Rays squad which has posted an 8-3-2 mark against the under over the past 13 road outings. However, Tampa Bay has a perfect 7-0 'over' mark in Jake Odorizzi's past seven outings, including 4-1 in his past five road assignments.
Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Padres
The Rockies host the Padres, looking to get back on track after an ice-cold stretch lately. Colorado has won just six times over their past 21 games overall, and they're 1-10 in their past 11 divisional games. However, the Rockies are 4-0 in German Marquez's past four home starts, and 8-3 in his past 11 overall. The Rox are also an impressive 11-5 over their past 16 home games and 21-9 in their past 30 to kick off a new series. Conversely, the Padres have won just once over the past six road assignments for Luis Perdomo, and they're 0-4 in his past four inside the division. San Diego is also 2-6 in their past eight trips to Coors Field with the 'under' cashing in each of the past five.
Betcha didn’t know: The biggest reason for the failures of the Tigers this season has been their inability to win inside the divsion, as well as on the road. Detroit is just 2-8 over their past 10 road outings and 1-4 in their past five road games against teams with a winning home mark. Jordan Zimmermann hasn't been much help in turning those kind of numbers around, as the Tigers are just 1-5 over his past six outings, 1-9 in his past 10 road starts and 2-7 across his past nine assignments against divisional foes. On the flip side, the Royals are an impressive 11-1 over Jason Vargas' past 12 starts against a club with a losing record and 21-6 across his past 27 outings overall.
Biggest public favorite: Astros (-215) vs. Mariners
Biggest public underdog: Rays (+110) at Athletics
Biggest line move: Astros (-200 to -215) vs. Mariners
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Washington Nationals -140
The Nationals and Reds are playing in Great American Ballpark early in the afternoon Monday. Scott Feldman and Stephen Strasburg are going to be starting after the Nationals traded for two new relief pitchers from Oakland in an effort to fix by far their biggest flaw as a team. Ultimately, I think the Nationals will probably make at least one more move to acquire some more bullpen depth, but the urgency has certainly dropped.
The Cincinnati Reds started off the season looking like they could be an interesting team to keep an eye on, and maybe even have the type of seasons that the Brewers are having now. It seems pretty clear that the Reds pitching was too bad to have any sustainable success, after starting Bronson Arroyo for the first two months of the season. Scott Feldman however has been by far the best starter for the Reds, with reasonable stats all around. He has an ERA of 3.94, with an xFIP of 4.00. His strikeout rates have been a fair amount better than the average, with almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings. He was projected to only have about 6.5-7 strikeouts per nine innings though, but ultimately that’s not such a massive difference that it’s impossible to believe that Feldman could really have developed a better strikeout rate. What’s tough to see with Feldman though, is what changed? Prior to this season it looked like he would provide rotation depth for an average team, but now he suddenly like an actually good pitcher. This is despite the fact that he’s lost almost 2 miles on his fastball, and his breaking pitches don’t look especially different. I don’t have much faith that Feldman is going to continue his success for much longer this season, so I like the Nationals quite a bit in this game, especially with Strasburg going for the Nationals.
MLB Underdog of the day: Philadelphia Phillies +140
The Phillies and Marlins are going to be playing tonight in Miami with Jared Eickhoff and Tom Koehler starting. I think that it’s a fair assessment to say that both starters aren’t especially great, and that both teams are filled with flaws, and limited upside. I ultimately think that the Phillies are much better than they have performed to this point in the season, and while the Marlins are probably as good as their performance in my opinion, I don’t like much of their upside.
I want to start by saying that I understand that Koehler is not nearly as bad as his numbers indicate, but they really don’t inspire any confidence. He has an ERA of 8, which is really shocking for a pitcher who has 45 innings of work. Of course the peripherals are much better, with an xFIP of 5.70, but it’s not as if that inspires any confidence either. Granted, this is largely only because of two very bad starts, including one where he was moved to the DL afterwards. But even with this being the case, it’s tough to see why there is any reason to make the Marlins such heavy favorites with him starting, even if the Phillies are the opposition.
The Phillies are a really bad team, and they are not as far along in their rebuild as myself and many others expected them to be this season. I certainly didn’t expect the Phillies to make the playoffs this season, but I did expect with them to flirt with .500 for a part of the season, and maybe even inspire enough confidence to get the Phillies to spend this offseason to push for the playoffs next year. Some people even think that they will be an important player in the 2019 offseason where there are so many great players coming into free agency, including Bryce Harper. Eickhoff is probably not one of the most disappointing players on the roster, but he has been somewhat disappointing still. His ERA is 4.63, with an xFIP of 4.69, while projections had him looking like a player with a high 3s ERA. The biggest problem that Eickhoff has seen is a higher walk rate than in his previous seasons, his zone rate has not changed much at all. For this reason, I think that it’s likely that Eickhoff’s numbers will start to improve for the rest of the season, and part of the reason that I like the Phillies to win this game. I don’t like any totals tonight, so these are going to be my only two picks for the day.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (-150, 9)
The Phillies and Marlins meet Monday night for the opening tilt of a three-game series in Miami and both teams are sending out starting pitchers that are severely struggling.
Jerad Eickhoff will be getting the ball tonight for Philly and he is having a horrible season. His team win/loss record on the year is 3-12 and on the road things have been even worse at 0-7 (0-9 if you go back to late last season). His road ERA in 2017 is 5.05 and the Phillies have allowed an average of 6.14 runs per game in his seven road starts this season.
Eickhoff will be facing a Miami offense that ranks fourth in baseball with a .268 batting average.
On the other side, the Marlins will send out a starter who has been even worse than Eickhoff. Right-hander Tom Koehler is one of the more hittable starting pitchers in all of baseball. He owns an ERA of 8.00 and a WHIP of 1.73 overall in 2017 (10 starts) and at home he has been even worse at 8.84 and 1.75.
If you think perhaps he's been pitching well recently and that's why Marlins' manager Don Mattingly keeps running him out there, think again. Over Koehler's last three starts his ERA is 16.76, his WHIP is 2.69, and he owns an opponent's on base percentage of .474.
With two terrible starting pitchers hitting the hill tonight it's tough to back either side - sounds like a good time for an Over play.
Pick: Over 9
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (-120, 10)
Two teams with different goals moving forward in the season meet in Kansas City tonight for the first of a four-game series. The Royals still have their eyes on a playoff spot with a .500 record, while the Tigers are six games out in the AL Central and are doing more scouting of other team's minor league prospects than upcoming opponents in preparation for their trade deadline sell-off.
The Tigers will be hoping to unload tonight's starter Jordan Zimmermann, but who is going to want him and the three years remaining on his five-year, $110 million contract. Zimmermann owns a team win/loss of 1-8 on the road this season with a road ERA of 6.99 and a WHIP of 1.70. Over his last three starts his ERA is 9.95 with a WHIP of 1.89 and an opponent's on base percentage of .403.
Royals' starting pitcher Jason Vargas is coming off one of his worst starts of the season when he allowed six earned runs over five innings in a 9-6 Royals win in Seattle against the Mariners. Normally this would be a spot to be cautious in his first full season back from major arm surgery, but that start was 12 days ago. Vargas should be well rested and ready to go tonight at home and you can't ignore the fact that the Royals have won 13 of his 17 starts this season, including his last eight outings in a row. At home he has been tremendous with a 7-1 record and an ERA of 1.84.
Have oddsmakers really soured on Vargas after just one below average start (which was actually a Royals' win)?
Pick: Royals -120
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 90-78-8
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays (9-5, 3.28 ERA, $18)
The Blue Jays are on that buy/sell/hold bubble where they could, potentially, get back in the playoff chase if they can put together a two-week-long run. But is this something that can realistically happen with their current roster? The Jays will likely be mild sellers at the deadline, but one chip they won't be selling is Marcus Stroman.
Stroman isn't the staff ace they though he might be (he is a very good No. 2 or No. 3 guy in the rotation) but he is certainly pitching like one over his last three outings. Over his last three starts he owns an ERA of 1.37 with a WHIP of 1.12. He's also keeping the ball in the ballpark with zero home runs allowed over those last three starts, which seems to be the key to his success - keep the ball down in the zone.
Stroman starts on the road in Boston tonight against the first place Red Sox and is a slight favorite at -115.
Slumping: Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (1-5, 7.90 ERA, $-243)
The Baltimore Orioles just continue to run garbage starting pitchers out to the mound night after night (except Dylan Bundy...he's decent). Chris Tillman gets the ball Monday and we shouldn't even have to go through this routine with him every time.
He is 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA and an opponent's on base percentage of .429 in 2017. Over his last five starts, Tillman's ERA is 11.25 with a WHIP of 2.60. Just horrible numbers.
Tillman and the Orioles are actually slight favorites at home against Andrew Cashner and the Texas Rangers tonight at -115.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Atlanta Braves are 6-0 in Julio Teheran's last six starts vs. the Chicago Cubs. Braves +145 tonight at home.
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 0-9 in Jerad Eickhoff's last nine road starts. +135 tonight @ Marlins.
* The Kansas City Royals are 11-1 in Jason Vargas' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -120 tonight vs Tigers.
* Under is 9-1 in the San Diego Padres' last 10 road games. Padres/Rockies Total: 11.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of a thunderstorm and a 30 percent chance of rain early in tonight's game between the Brewers and Pirates in Pittsburgh. There is also a very slight chance of a quick thunderstorm developing in the Atlanta area where the Braves will be hosting the Cubs.
There will be hitter's winds in four ballparks tonight:
* Blue Jays at Red Sox (Total: 9) - 9-12 mile per hour wind blowing toward the Green Monster in left field.
* Cardinals at Mets (Total: 9) - 10-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field.
* Rays at Athletics (Total: 9) - 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to right center field.
* Indians at Giants (Total: 8.5) - 15-17 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center.
Yankees, Twins clash
By: StatFox.com
The Yankees will be looking to win their third in four games when they take on the Twins in Minnesota on Monday.
New York split a doubleheader with Boston on Sunday, winning the afternoon game 3-0 and then losing 3-0 on Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees are now 3.5 games back in the AL East, but they would be in the Wild Card Game if the season ended today. The Twins are 1.5 games back from the Yankees, but they are certainly hoping to close the gap in this three-game series. The starters in this Monday night game are set to be RHP Bryan Mitchell (1-1, 5.06 ERA, 10 K) for New York and LHP Adalberto Mejia (4-4, 4.43 ERA, 54 K) for Minnesota. Mitchell has not yet started a game for the Yankees this season, but he did pitch three innings of one-run ball in relief against the Astros on Jun. 30. He also has been a starter for most of his career, so his mentality won’t need to be changed too much. One trend favoring the Yankees in this game is the fact that they are 13-3 against the money line over the past three seasons after scoring and allowing four runs or less in their past three games. The Twins, meanwhile, are 25-15 against the money line over the past three seasons after a game where they stranded three or fewer runners.
The Yankees split a four-game set with the Red Sox, but that honestly isn’t good enough for New York. This team was at the top of the AL East for quite some time, but a slide before the All-Star break has it in danger of missing the postseason. The Yankees need to get hot soon, and they’ll be counting on Bryan Mitchell to give them a good outing on Monday. Mitchell is coming off of a solid relief performance against Houston on Jun. 30, but this is not the same. He must find a way to answer the bell in this start, and it’d be big if he can give the Yankees five good innings. This is important for Mitchell individually, as he can earn himself a spot in the rotation moving forward. Offensively, OF Aaron Judge (.313 BA, 30 HR, 66 RBI) is just 1-for-18 since coming out of the All-Star break. The Yankees need their superstar to get himself going soon. One guy who has been good since the break is C Gary Sanchez (.276 BA, 14 HR, 44 RBI). Sanchez is 5-for-19 with a homer and four RBI over the past four games, and it’d be huge for New York if he can start hitting homers more consistently.
The Twins are really struggling heading into this game, as they have lost four of their past five games. Minnesota was one of the more surprising teams of the first half of the year, but the Twins want to prove that they are no fluke. A big series win against the Yankees would go a long way in doing that, but they’ll need a nice performance from Mejia in this one. The lefty has been solid recently, allowing only nine earned runs in his past 29 innings of work. The Twins would certainly sign up for a quality start from him here. If Minnesota is going to win this game, the team will, however, need a good game out of 3B Miguel Sano (.270 BA, 21 HR, 62 RBI). Sano is just 1-for-10 since the break, and that is not acceptable. He is a superstar and needs to start playing more like one. If he can’t then this offense will continue to struggle.