National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Fernandez is 0-2, 10.03 in his last two road starts; four of his last five road starts went over the total. Miami is 4-3 in his road starts.
Nola is 0-4, 15.00 in his last five starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Phillies are 2-6 when he starts at home.
Marlins won five of last six games; they're 9-6 in road series openers. Over is 17-5 in their last 22 true road games. Philly won 11 of last 16 games, under is 9-2-1 in its last 12 at home. Phillies are 4-11 in home series openers.
Braves @ Reds
Wisler is 1-1, 5.32 in his last four starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Atlanta split his six road starts this season.
Finnegan is 1-3, 9.47 in his last four starts; five of his last seven home starts went over total. Reds lost six of his last seven home starts.
Atlanta is 4-7 in its last 11 games; they're 6-9 in road series openers. Under is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Cincinnati lost eight of last 11 home games, over is 14-7-1 in Reds' last 22 games. Reds are 7-8 in home series openers.
Mets @ Cubs
Matz is 0-4, 5.05 in his last eight starts; nine of his last 11 stayed under. Mets are 5-2 in his road starts.
Lester is 0-1, 7.58 in his last four starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13. Cubs are 6-2 when Lester starts at home.
Mets lost eight of last 12 road games; they're 8-6 in road series openers. Under is 14-4 in New York's last 18 road games. Chicago won three of last four games; they're 12-3 in home series openers. Last five games at Wrigley Field stayed under.
Padres @ Cardinals
Friedrich is 0-3, 8.40 in his last three starts; eight of his last ten went over. Padres lost four of his six road starts.
Leake is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Cardnals lost six of his eight home starts.
Padres won their last three games; three of their last four road games stayed under. San Diego is 10-4 in road series openers. St Louis lost five of last seven home games; they're 5-11 in home series openers. Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 home games.
American League
Orioles @ New York
Gausman is 1-3, 5.74 in his last five start; eight of his last ten stayed under. Orioles lost five of his last six road starts.
Nova is 1-2, 7.30 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over. Bronx split his six home starts.
Orioles won six of last eight games, their last five games stayed under. Baltimore is 8-7 in road series openers. New York lost five of last eight home games, seven of last 11Bronx games went over the total- they're 7-7 in home series openers.
Twins @ Tigers
Nolasco is 1-3, 6.66 in his last four starts; over is 15-2 in his last 17 starts. Minnesota is 4-5 in his road starts.
Boyd is 0-3, 6.67 in six starts this year (over 3-2-1).
Minnesota won eight of last 12 games; they're 5-9 in road series openers. Twins' last six road games went over. Detroit won four of last five home games, nine of its last 12 games stayed under the total.
Indians @ Royals
Kluber is 3-1, 2.54 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over. Cleveland split his eight home starts, winning last three.
Volquez is 1-1, 3.38 in his last three starts; six of his last eight stayed under. Royals are 8-3 in his home starts.
Indians won 10 of last 13 road games; they're 10-6 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in Tribe's last eight road games. Kansas City lost eight of last 11 games; they're 12-2 in home series openers. Six of last eight KC stayed under the total.
Astros @ A's
Fiers is 3-0, 3.08 in his last five starts; over is 8-4-1 in his last 13. Houston is 2-4 when he starts on foreign soil.
Graveman is 3-0, 2.89 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Oakland is 2-4 in his home starts.
Astros won nine of last 11 road games; they're 7-8 in road series openers. Three of their last four road games went over. Oakland is 9-1 in last ten series openers, but 14-23 in last 37 games overall, 5-11 in last 16 at home. Five of their last seven at home went over.
Rangers @ Angels
Lohse allowed six runs in five IP (109 PT) in his first '16 start.
Tropeano is 2-0, 2.43 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under. Angels are 2-3 in his home starts.
Texas lost 11 of last 15 games; they're 8-7 in road series openers- over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. Angels won seven of last nine games, four of their last five stayed under the total. Halos are 6-9 in home series openers.
White Sox @ Mariners
Sale is 5-2, 5.44 in his last seven starts; over is 10-4 in his last 14. White Sox are 7-1 when he starts on the road.
LeBlanc is 1-0, 4.11 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
White Sox lost their last four games, scoring one run; they're 1-6 in last seven road series openers. Three of their last four games stayed under. Seattle lost seven of last ten games; they're 8-7 in home series openers- four of their last five home games went over.
Interleague
Rays @ Rockies
Smyly is 0-3, 12.06 in his last three starts; over is 11-1 in his last 12. Tampa Bay lost five of his last six road starts. .
Anderson is 1-3, 3.68 in his last five starts (under 5-1).
Tampa Bay lost its last ten road games; they're 5-9 in road series openers. Rays' last five games stayed under total. Colorado is 9-6 in last 15 home games, 7-7 in home series openers. Eight of last 11 games at Coors Field went over the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Mia-Phil-- Fernandez 12-5; Nola 7-10 (0-5 last 5)
Atl-Cin-- Wisler 5-12; Finneran 5-13
NY-Chi-- Matz 9-7; Lester 12-6
SD-StL-- Friedrich 5-6 (1-5 last 6); Leake 8-10
Balt-NY-- Gausman 6-9; Nova 6-6
Min-Det-- Nolasco 7-11; Boyd 2-4
Cle-KC-- Kluber 9-9; Volquez 11-8
Hst-A's-- Fiers 10-6 (5-0 last 5); Graveman
Tex-LAA-- Lohse 0-1; Tropeano 5-7
Chi-Sea-- Sale 14-4 (5-1 last 6); Leblanc 2-1
TB-Colo-- Smyly 6-11; Anderson 2-4
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Mia-Phil-- Fernandez 4-17; Nola 8-17
Atl-Cin-- Wisler 9-17; Finneran 5-18
NY-Chi-- Matz 4-16; Lester 5-18
SD-StL-- Friedrich 4-11; Leake 7-18 (4 of last 5)
Balt-NY-- Gausman 6-15; Nova 3-12
Min-Det-- Nolasco 7-18; Boyd 0-6
Cle-KC-- Kluber 5-18; Volquez 5-19
Hst-A's-- Fiers 3-16; Graveman
Tex-LAA-- Lohse 0-1; Tropeano 2-12
Chi-Sea-- Sale 6-18; Leblanc 1-3
TB-Colo-- Smyly 4-17; Anderson 1-6
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Astros (20-7 last 27, 7-1-1 last nine series)
After suffering a frustrating 1-0 loss on Saturday, Houston rebounded behind Collin McHugh and a grand slam from a resurgent Carlos Gomez, beating Seattle to pull within one game of Toronto for the AL’s second Wild Card with 70 games still remaining. That may not sound all that impressive, but considering the Astros have reached 50 wins and are a season-high eight games over .500 after losing 15 of their first 21 games, you can see they’ve definitely been putting in work. At its worse, Houston was 17-28 on May 22, but over the past 15 series, it has won 11 outright, sweeping six and splitting a four-game set against the A’s team it will face tonight just before the All-Star break. The Astros have won each of the last five games Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.35 ERA) has started, supplying 7.4 runs per game to support the cause. Fiers worked seven innings in Oakland back on April 29, surrendering just two runs and taking a no-decision in a 7-4 loss. Houston has beaten the A’s in six of 10 meetings this season but managed just two runs over eight innings against Monday’s starter Kendall Graveman (5-6, 4.37) in a 3-2 loss on July 9.
Coldest team: White Sox (1-5 last six)
Since the Rays snapped their eight-game losing streak against the Orioles on Sunday, Chicago’s play of late makes them a great fit for this category. The White Sox ended a scoreless run dating back to the Saturday before the All-Star break in an 8-1 loss in Anaheim, but were outscored 16-1 and find themselves back under .500 again. Chicago owned the AL’s best record in early May, but has been unable to consistently get its bats going and has been shut out in five of its 12 July contests to date. Chris Sale (14-3, 3.38) has managed to maintain his major-league lead in wins despite his team’s struggles over the past few months, but his ERA is over 3.00 for the first time since April 9 after his worst outing of the season. The lowly Braves, who have hit lefties as poorly as any team in history to this point, managed to belt out three home runs, scoring eight times over five innings against Chicago's ace to pull off a shocking 11-8 upset. Sale will be facing Seattle for the first time this season and is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA on the road in 2016 and has never lost a decision at Safeco Field, so it's not surprising to see the White Sox (-145) favored despite their poor form.
Hottest pitcher: Jose Fernandez (11-4, 2.52 ERA)
Fernandez has won 10 of his last 12 decisions and has allowed one run or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts, a stretch dating back to May 9. Fernandez hasn’t been as dominant on the road as he has been at Marlins Park, where he’s 25-1 over his career, so he’ll be looking to snap a two-game losing streak in opposing stadiums as he takes the mound to face the Phillies for the first time in 2016. Current hitters on the Philadelphia roster are a combined 6-for-37 (.162) against Fernandez, but you should expect to see Ryan Howard, who is 2-for-12. Both hits have been home runs. Miami (-200) is a heavy road favorite at the Phillies (+180), who counter with Aaron Nola (5-8, 4.69).
Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman (1-6, 4.15 ERA)
Gausman truly earned his only victory this season, blanking the Rays on four hits over 7.2 innings at home on June 25. He’s been hit much harder since that start and finds himself back on the road for the eighth time in 11 outings. Although he’s shined against the Yankees this season (0.64 ERA over 14 innings), both showings came at Camden Yards, where he’s pitched considerably better than he has on the road (0-5, 5.25). Gausman is 1-1 with a 3.05 in the Bronx over the course of his short career and has surprisingly struggled with Alex Rodriguez, who has been benched against most righties but may be utilized tonight since he’s 5-for-11 with a pair of homers against the Orioles’ young gun. Baltimore is a slight road favorite (-120). New York (+110) will send Ivan Nova (6-5, 5.18) to the mound.
Biggest UNDER run: Rays (5-0 last five, 9-2-1 last 12)
The Rays matched their highest scoring output of the month with their five runs against the Orioles, belting out four homers. Evan Longoria hit a pair, so maybe Tampa Bay will finally start breaking out offensively again. Kevin Kiermaier has returned to the lineup and should provide a boost, but he’s just 1-for-8 since coming back from a wrist injury. The Rays have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last eight games, so they’re hoping a rare trip to Denver will help rejuvenate the offense. Tampa won two of three last time it visited Coors Field back in 2013 and will square off against rookie lefty Tyler Anderson (1-3, 3.03). Drew Smyly (2-10, 5.47) has lost six consecutive decisions and has seen his ERA balloon by over two full runs over the past two months, so Colorado (-135) has been established as the favorite and the total has been set at 11.5. Some 12s are still floating out there.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (24-12-4, last 40)
The ‘over’ clearly prevailed in only three Sunday contests, so there isn’t anyone streaking since action reconvened following the All-Star break. That makes it easy to default to Minnesota in this category despite the fact it comes off managing just one run at home against Cleveland. The Twins hit the road for three games against baseball’s 10th highest-scoring team in Detroit prior to visiting Boston, which leads MLB with 501 runs scored. Since May 23, Minnesota has been involved in more ‘overs’ than any other team and will send Ricky Nolasco (4-7, 5.22) out there against Matt Boyd (0-2, 5.77), so it’s no surprise to see this total set at 10.
Matchup to watch: Mets at Cubs
No team will ever surpass the Cardinals as the Cubs most hated rival, but I’d bet these Mets are currently coming as close as any team ever has. Despite a fantastic season where it has held baseball’s best record longer than anyone else, Chicago was powerless to stop New York from pulling off an emphatic four-game sweep in Queens from June 30-July 3. The Mets outscored the Cubs 32-11. Since the memory of being swept out of the NLCS last October is still fresh, it’s fair to say that New York is in the heads of Joe Maddon’s Cubbies as the teams meet for the final time this regular-season in a three-game set at Wrigley. Monday’s opener will be televised nationally on ESPN and features the day’s top pitching matchup as lefties Steven Matz (7-5, 3.38) and Jon Lester (9-4, 3.01) duel. The Mets are tied with the Marlins for possession of the second NL Wild Card, while the Cubs have the largest divisional lead of anyone in baseball, spaced out at eight games over Pittsburgh. New York’s Yoenis Cespedes returned from a quad injury on Sunday and went 0-for-3 in his first action since July 8. Chicago’s Dexter Fowler (hamstring) is close to a return from the disabled list, but isn’t expected back at all this series. Oddsmakers favor the Cubs (-165), offering roughly +150 to back the visiting Mets. The total will be set after wind conditions can be better determined.
Betcha didn’t know: The Padres unexpectedly come off a sweep of the Giants, who still boast MLB's best record. That's no secret, especially since they beat each of San Francisco's top starters. You may have heard it was their first series sweep this season, or that it's the first time Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto have lost consecutive starts, but you're likely not aware that the Padres haven't had a four-game winning streak all season. Although San Diego has managed to win three straight on three separate occasions, it has been shut out in two of its three attempts at a fourth win in a row, outscored by a collective margin of 11-2 in its failures. Lefty Christian Friedrich has dropped his last three decisions, so it's no surprise the Padres are a heavy underdog at St. Louis (-180), who counter with San Diego native Mike Leake.
Biggest public favorite: Tigers (-140) vs. Twins
Biggest public underdog: Braves (+128) at Reds
Biggest line move: Phillies (+200 to +180) vs. Marlins
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
When a series of baseball betting trends point in one direction, the baseball handicapping industry takes notice. And, that's the case Monday night when Minnesota Twins visit the Detroit Tigers. Twins sporting the worst road record in the majors at 13-29 have lost six consecutive vs Tigers and own a dreadful 3-10 record last thirteen visits to Comerica Park. Another obsticle for Minnesota, the Twins have lost 8 of their last 9 vs the division with Nolasco doing their bidding, lost 6 of their last 7 with Nolasco after a team loss the previous effort.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals get it on for the eleventh time this season when the clubs open a three-game series at Kaufman Stadium. As a team, the Indians are a mediocre 5-7 since their 14-game win streak was snapped back on July 2nd. The Royals have had their own issues of late with just four wins, nine losses during July.
Cleveland holding a 6-4 edge in series play sends out righthander Corey Kluber. In his last start, Kluber spun eight innings of one-run ball in the win over the Yankees bringing his record to 9-8 on the campaign with a 3.61 ERA. Tribe are 1-1 vs Royals this season handing the ball to Kluber but remain just 3-7 last ten vs their division rival with the hurler handling starting duties and that includes a horrid 0-5 that Kluber has started in Kansas City.
The Royals' Edinson Volquez toes the rubber in the series opener. The righthander picking up a win in his last outing tossing 6.0 innings of 3-run ball carries an 8-8 record, 4.85 ERA to the hill. Royals have lost two of three Volquez starts vs Cleveland in 2016 with the lone win coming at Kaufman Stadium. Kansas City is 3-4 in Volquez's seven starts vs Tribe as a Royal including 2-1 on home field.
The fact this series is in Kansas City bodes well for Royals, since they swept Indians at this venue back in June. However, the most compelling numbers in Royals’ favor is that Ned Yost's squad is a sparkling 11-3 opening a home series. Matching that, Royals have a sparkling 5-0 streak at home vs the division w/Volquez and have won 4 of his last 5 in front of the home audience.
Dave's MLB Monday
By Dave Essler
I'm not sure I trust Jose Fernandez at -210 on the road, even at Philadelphia (he's no surprise to them) - but because he's not prone to pitching deep, and because we get Fernandez (who can hit) this might be another "over" bet.
There is no point IMO in even considering the Reds and Finnegan as a favorite. IMO that could well be the public disaster of the day. We'll see.
Lester had fallen on hard times before the break - and we faded him big. Might do that again. It's not like the Mets totally suck - and the Cubs hit him hard earlier this season (one reason the line is so high) - we do look for the pitcher to adjust - but will also be very interested to see that total.
Mike Leake is not worth -170 to anyone in baseball, IMO. Padres RL is perhaps the way to go - but I can't get past Friedrich at all. I'd love to see that total come down to 8 and then take the over - doubt that it does, however.
The Orioles have simply had their way with Nova and on more than one occasion. But, here's the downside - Gausman is 0-5 on the road with a .310 batting average against for the season - allowed 10 jacks in 48 innings. It's hard not to like the over in this one, albeit square - interesting that the vig on the total suggests under 9 - not a chance I could fire that.
Kluber has owned (for the most part) the Royals while the Indians (for the most part) have hit Volquez, (at least the LHH's) and in 2 of his last 13 starts was he able to finish the 7th inning. What I think is the deal here is that this one stays under. I thought I'd love Cleveland, and fade the Royals in their first game back - but I need to see the Indians (and the Royals, for that matter) lineup.
Fiers is one of those "feast or famine" pitchers, and he's had almost two weeks to dwell on his last outing where he lasted 3.1 innings. And he's given up 16 home runs in less than 100 innings. But, this IS a big park (FML for thinking Oakland would score YESTERDAY) and the A's have pretty much done nothing against him. Graveman has also been feast or famine, and CAN induce a ton of ground balls. He doesn't usually pitch deep, however. The A's pen has been better lately, but since Hill left so early they've got nothing left, so it's probably Houston and under, IMHO. If they push that total to 8.5 that's a done deal.
I have no feel for the Angels and am typically wrong when I do have a feel for the Angels. Tropeano is yet another "five inning pitcher" that Texas hasn't done a lot against, albeit in limited exposure. The Angels pen has been solid, but they're still well under .500 at home. A long flight for Texas coming from Chicago last night - but their terrible bullpen is at least rested. Griffin is yet another all-or-nothing, five inning pitcher - so in this bigger park I lean under and slightly to the Angels.
Not a ton of love for Chris Sale only being -145 on the road, to Wade LeBlanc. Inasmuch as he started the All Star game - he really hasn't been as dominant as in years' past, but he's actually been better on the road than at home. Cruz and Cano have had some success against him, but that's it. But, the White Sox have scored exactly one run in their last four games, making it difficult to not think "under" - given that their bullpen has been pretty solid lately. LeBlanc's two home starts were beast-like but he was crushed at Houston right before the break. The White Sox aren't the Astros - and they have no exposure to LeBlanc. Since Seattle's bullpen has been on "WTF" mode (giving up runs) I can see this one as a Seattle F5 bet only, and perhaps the White Sox win late.
I'm a bit surprised to see Tyler Anderson a -140 favorite here since he's going to give way to the pen at the latest, the 7th inning. He's a ground ball pitcher, which is great in THIS park, and he has SLOWLY regressed a little since his first start against the Padres. Smyly is a flyball pitcher which is clearly BAD in this park - and obviously the Rockies haven't seem HIM, either. The Rays aren't hitting well but their bullpen has picked up the slack -but they are a .500 team against LHP's. In the end, this game has pass written on it for me, unless some line move occurs that's tips it later.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Power Sports
Covers.com
Cub Pride
Since taking all seven regular season meetings in 2015, the Cubs have lost eight in a row to the Mets. That obviously includes getting swept in last year’s National League Championship Series. It also includes a sweep at Citi Field that took place earlier this month. But the revenge angle could be strong here at Wrigley this week. In Friday’s column, I stated that I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the NL Central leaders win their series against Texas (took 2 of 3) and I’m of the same mindset here. Not only is this series contested at the Friendly Confines, but the Cubs get to trot out Lester and Arrieta in the first two games. The Mets offense (28th in runs scored) has fallen off dramatically this season.
First Time for Everything
In one of the real “stunners” of the weekend, San Diego swept San Francisco. Believe it or not, but that was the first sweep for the Padres all season! It’s just their fourth three-game win streak of 2016 and so far they are 0-3 in this spot, having been shut out twice. Their opponent starting Monday is St. Louis, who shockingly has the third worst home record in the entire National League (20-28). The Padres have actually played the Cardinals tough over the last three seasons, going 8-9 against them.
National Importance
Sticking with the National League, there’s a big series starting Tuesday as the Nationals host the Dodgers. In my eyes, Washington has emerged as the second best team in all of baseball (Cubs) and they have the edge at home as Los Angeles has been a losing proposition (-5.7 units) on the road. It is still unknown as to when Clayton Kershaw will be making his return to the mound, but it doesn’t seem like it will be in the Nation’s Capital. This is also a revenge situation for the Nats as they were swept at Dodger Stadium back in June.
Pitching Notes
The White Sox desperately need a quality start from Chris Sale on Monday. Their left-handed ace was shockingly shelled by Atlanta in his last start before the All-Star Break (allowed eight runs!), not to mention the team has scored a grand total of one run its last four games. Sale still has a 14-4 TSR though (3.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and will be facing a team (Seattle) that scored only two runs in its last two games.
Tyler Anderson is a name to potentially keep an eye on. A rookie southpaw for Colorado, he’s obviously at a disadvantage having to regularly pitch at Coors Field. But the Rockies finally might have a pitcher who can consistently strike batters out (so key with that thin air). He has a 32-6 KW rate thus far (six starts) and has allowed three earned runs or less every time out.
Hitter Notes
So much for sacrifice. A day after the Indians did a well-publicized “sacrifice” (google it, if interested) on catcher Yan Gomes (in the hopes of getting him out of a season-long slump), he injured his shoulder and now may possibly miss the remainder of the regular season. While catcher is a tough position to have an injury, what is Cleveland really going to be missing here? Gomes was hitting only .165 for the year, including a 0 for 27 stretch heading into Sunday.
Cleveland will be facing Kansas City starting Monday. The Royals have a hitter of their own who has been in a season-long funk, that being Alex Gordon, who is hitting just .207 for the year with a .692 OPS. Gordon is just a .188 career hitter against Corey Kluber, whom KC will face in Monday’s opener.
Totals Trend
The Over has cashed in each of the last six starts made by Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola. He faces off against Jose Fernandez on Monday, at home.
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW YORK METS (49-42) at CHICAGO CUBS (55-36)
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York +137, Chicago -152, Total: 7.5
The Mets will be looking to win their third game in four nights when they face the Cubs in Chicago on Monday.
The Mets are coming off of a 5-0 victory in a game that Jacob deGrom absolutely dominated. The Mets starter threw a complete game one-hitter and New York will be hoping to carry some of the momentum from that solid victory into Monday night’s meeting with Chicago.
The Cubs are coming off of a 4-1 loss to the Rangers on Sunday, but they had won three straight games heading into that one. The Mets will, however, be the more confident team in this game. They are 4-0 against the Cubs on the season, but Chicago is 7-2 when hosting New York over the past three seasons.
This game features an exciting set of starters as LHP Jon Lester (9-4, 3.01 ERA, 108 K) will be on the mound for the Cubs and LHP Steven Matz (7-5, 3.38 ERA, 90 K) will give it a go for the Mets.
One interesting trend worth pointing out is that the Mets are 23-4 against the money line when playing on Monday over the past two seasons. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 62-28 against the money line as a favorite of -125 go -175 over the past two seasons. They have also been very good at home this season, going 28-15 at Wrigley.
The Mets will be looking to continue their dominance over the Cubs this season and Steven Matz will be the guy on the hill in this one. Matz has pitched pretty well recently, allowing just five earned runs in his past 14 innings of work. One thing he will need to do is keep his walks down. Matz walked three batters the last time he faced Chicago and that was part of the reason he allowed three earned runs on seven hits in just 5.1 innings of work in that outing. He needs to be on point with his control, as it’ll allow him to work deeper into this game.
Offensively, two guys worth keeping an eye on in this game are OF Curtis Granderson (.240, 16 HR, 28 RBI) and 3B Wilmer Flores (.254, 8 HR, 24 RBI). Granderson has crushed Lester over the years, going 14-for-46 with three homers and six RBI against him in his career.
Flores, meanwhile, is no guarantee to be in the lineup on Monday, but he has been very good against Lester in his career. Flores is 3-for-7 with two homers and three RBI against him and the Mets would be wise to tap into that unexpected power boost in this one.
The Cubs will be hoping to earn their first victory of the season over the Mets on Monday. Jon Lester is going to be on the mound for Chicago in this game and the team desperately needs him to get his head right. Lester has been miserable over his past two starts, allowing 13 earned runs over 4.1 innings of work. He had been one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout the entire first half of the season, but badly struggled in those two starts and needs to get back to what he was doing well early in the year.
It also isn’t a great sign that his most recent start against this Mets team was when he allowed eight earned runs in 1.1 innings of work on Jul. 3.
Offensively, two guys to watch out for on the Cubs are 3B Kris Bryant (.282, 25 HR, 65 RBI) and IF Javier Baez (.277, 9 HR, 32 RBI). Bryant is 1-for-3 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Matz and Baez is 2-for-3 with a homer. Both guys will be hoping to produce at the plate and their familiarity with Matz could help them do that. Chicago will certainly be in need of runs, as Lester might need all the support he can get if he does not turn things around on Monday.
CLEVELAND INDIANS (54-37) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (46-45)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -155, Kansas City +140, Total: 8
The Royals will be looking to get back on track with a home victory over the Indians on Monday.
Kansas City has really been struggling recently, losing three of its past four games and seven of its past 10 as well. The Royals were the World Series champions a year ago and now find themselves in a real dogfight just to get back into the playoffs this season. They’ll need to turn things around in the second half of the season, but it won’t be easy with the Indians in town.
Cleveland took two of its three games in a set with the Twins last series, and the team currently sits atop the AL Central. The Indians should be feeling confident coming into this one, as they have been almost as good on the road as they have at home this season. They are 28-21 when playing away from home on the year and will be hoping to make a statement against a Royals team that is outstanding at Kauffman Stadium.
One trend worth keeping an eye on in this game is the fact that the Indians are 31-11 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
The starting pitching matchup in this game should be a good one to watch, as RHP Corey Kluber (9-8, 3.61 ERA, 122 K) is on the mound for Cleveland and RHP Edinson Volquez (8-8, 4.85 ERA, 85 K) is taking the ball for Kansas City.
The Indians have been one of the best teams in baseball this season and they’ll be hoping to continue to play well in the second half of the season. A road victory in this series over the Royals would certainly be a good start for the team and Kluber will be the guy that is tasked with shutting down Kansas City on Monday.
The former Cy Young winner was dominant in his last outing, allowing just one earned run in eight innings against the Yankees on Jul. 8. He struck out eight batters in that game and walked just one. He did struggle in his last start against Kansas City, allowing five earned runs in five innings of work. He’ll need to be a lot better than that this time around.
Offensively, three guys to watch out for are OF Lonnie Chisenhall (.299, 6 HR, 29 RBI), 2B Jason Kipnis (.280, 15 HR, 51 RBI) and DH Carlos Santana (.257, 20 HR, 51 RBI). Chisenhall and Kipnis have done some solid hitting against Volquez in their careers, going 13-for-33 with four doubles and four RBI against the starter. Santana, meanwhile, doesn’t have many hits against Volquez, but he does have two homers against the starter. He’ll be hoping to go yard again in this one.
After a string of lousy performances in the middle of June, Edinson Volquez has settled in and performed admirably in his past three starts. In those outings, Volquez has allowed just seven earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. The Royals desperately need him to pitch like that the rest of the way and he should be able to come out and perform at a high level on Monday.
The last time Volquez faced the Indians, he allowed no earned runs in seven innings of work. He did, however, walk four batters in that game and he would be doing himself a great favor if he can keep his control in check on Monday.
The guys to keep an eye on in this lineup are 1B Eric Hosmer (.299, 13 HR, 51 RBI) and C Salvador Perez (.282, 14 HR, 42 RBI). Hosmer is one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball and has also done pretty well against Kluber in his career, going 13-for-45 with six doubles, three homers and 13 RBI against the pitcher.
Perez, meanwhile, is just 5-for-28 versus Kluber, but he does have a homer and five RBI in the matchup. He is another guy with some serious pop and can change the game with one swing of the bat on any given night.