Monday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-123, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Nats starter Dan Haren is coming off his best start of the year against the Miami Marlins his last time out. He tossed six shutout innings and surrendered three hits, but the Nats managed to lose 2-1.
Hot batting stat: The Pirates have knocked six homers in the previous three games after hitting just seven during a 13-game stretch from June 30 to July 14.
Weather: There will be a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-80s and wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The Pirates are 3-13 in starter Charlie Morton's last 16 starts versus the National League East.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+108, 8)
Cold pitching stat: Mets starter Dillon Gee is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in two starts versus the Braves this year. He has given up 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings of work.
Cold batting stat: Braves 2B Dan Uggla is 4-for-24 in his career versus Gee.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 Monday games.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-127, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Tom Gorzelanny has not given up an earned run over 12 innings of work in his last two starts.
Hot batting stat: Padres 1B Yonder Alonso owns a 12-game road hitting streak. He is 16-for-48 (.333) during the stretch.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 8-2 in Padres SP Andrew Cashner's last 10 starts overall.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-166, 10.5)
Cold pitching stat: Rockies starter Drew Pomeranz has been rocked in all three of his 2013 starts. The lefty has an ERA of 8.76 and WHIP of 2.68 in those outings this year.
Cold batting stat: Rockies All-Star Carlos Gonzalez owns a career batting average of .238 versus the Marlins. That average is Gonzalez's second lowest only to the Giants (.231) among NL ball clubs.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (-131, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Matt Garza is 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last five outings.
Cold batting stat: DBacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 0-for-6 in his career versus Garza.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 21-8 in Garza's last 29 road starts.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (-115, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Giants starter Tim Lincecum is coming off a no-hitter against the Padres his last time out. He struck out 13 and walked four in the 148-pitch effort.
Cold batting stat: Reds OF Ryan Ludwick is 3-for-23 (.130) in his career versus Lincecum.
Weather: Temperatures in the high-50s and cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 versus the National League Central.
Monday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet and Tips
By Covers.com
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-175, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: The Rangers have lost seven of Yu Darvish's previous 10 starts coming into this game.
Hot batting stat: Yankees OF Ichiro Suzuki is 7-for-14 in his career versus Darvish.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 13 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 10-3-1 in the Yankees last 14 versus the American League West.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (Off, Off)
Hot pitching stat: Rays starter Matt Moore is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month.
Hot batting stat: Sox DH David Ortiz is 5-for-10 with a homer and four RBIs in his career versus Moore.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Key betting note: The under is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+110, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Tigers starter Max Scherzer went six innings and gave up four earned runs on eight hits against the Texas Rangers en route to his first loss of the season his last time on the bump.
Cold batting stat: Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-13 (.154) in his career versus Sox starter Chris Sale.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The White Sox are 11-3 in Sale's last 14 home starts.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (+100, 9)
Cold pitching stat: O's starter Scott Feldman has given up 20 hits in 18 2/3 innings of work and owns a 5.79 ERA in three starts since joining Baltimore.
Cold batting stat: Baltimore OF Nick Markakis is .212 lifetime against Royals starter Wade Davis.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s and there is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow out to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Oakland A's at Houston Astros (+147, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel owns a 6.00 ERA in three July starts. Houston is 1-2 in his 3 starts this month.
Hot batting stat: The A's roster is batting a collective .333 against Keuchel.
Weather: The roof at Minute Maid Park may be closed due a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the mid-90s. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: The Athletics are 8-0 in the last eight meetings in Houston.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-154, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Angels starter Joe Blanton is winless in nine home starts thus far in 2013. He is 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA.
Hot batting stat: Opponents have hammered Blanton for 23 home runs this season. It ties him with the Jays R.A. Dickey for the MLB lead in dingers allowed.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (-102, 8)
Hot pitching stat: The Indians are 7-2 in starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez's previous nine starts.
Cold batting stat: Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Drew Stubbs are a combined 1-for-9 against Mariners starter Aaron Harang.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 versus the American League West.
Interleague
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (-118, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Josh Johnson is on a personal three-game losing streak and the Jays have lost his last four outings.
Hot batting stat: The current Dodgers roster is batting a collective .370 versus Johnson.
Weather: The roof may be closed in Toronto due to a 20 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s and win will blow from right field to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The Dodgers are 4-0 in SP Hyun-Jin Ryu's last 4 starts.
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Top spot in the AL East is at stake when division leading Red Sox and second place Rays collide in a four-game set at Fenway Park. The expected pitching matchup Monday features Brandon Workman (0-0, 5.40 ERA) and southpaw Matt Moore (13-3, 3.44 ERA). Workman making his second start of the season was tagged with a no-decision in his first start going 6 1/3 of 2 hit, 2 run-ball in a Boston loss at Oakland. As for Moore, the hurler heads to the bump on a five game win streak along with a smart 6-1 mark on the road that has seen Rays win eight of his nine highway starts. From a team perspective, Red Sox have posted a 2-3 mark last five, 10-6 record for the month. Meanwhile, Rays the hottest team in baseball have reeled off 17 wins the past 19 on the diamond. Rays will be tested in the opener, Red Sox are 14-2 opening a series at Fenway, 12-4 at home vs a left-handed starter, 9-3 vs Tampa this season including 5-1 playing in Beantown.
Oakland at Houston: Preview & Pick
Sportspic.com
Southpaws will be the order of the evening in tonight’s baseball betting offering as the Oakland Athletics travel to face the team’s new divisional rival, the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
Given the disparity in talent, it was a given in the baseball betting world that Oakland would be favored, which they are at -165, according to the current betting odds at Bovada. The run total is listed at nine.
The Athletics will have lefty Tommy Milone on the bump, sporting an 8-8 mark and 4.24 ERA. Milone’s home/road splits are noteworthy this season, at least pertaining to the ERA, since he’s allowing slightly over three earned runs per game in friendly surroundings in Oakland. In contrast, the ERA jumps to 5.05 when playing before opposing crowds.
Houston will counter will fellow portsider Dallas Keuchel, who has a 4-5 record and 4.62 on the season. In his last five starts at Minute Maid, the Over is 4-1.
Keuchel is looking for his first victory since June 16, and is looking for a better home performance than his last effort, when he allowed five runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a 12-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Astros’ pitching staff was pounded yesterday in a 12-5 home loss to the Mariners, which triggers this baseball betting fact: in six of the last eight games in which a team has allowed 10 or more runs, the Over has been the correct call.
This season, the Over is 20-13-1 when Oakland has played a road night game, with the Athletics winning two of the three games this year when the team has been a road favorite of more than -150—all of the games coming against the Astros.
In three of the last four games (and four of the last six) in which the run total has been 9 or above for an Oakland game, the Over has cashed. Those numbers are reinforced by the fact that in 2013, the Over is 13-3 when the Athletics are starting a road series.
Finally, another wordy fact that covers all of major league baseball is offered: the Over has won four of six times this year when a road favorite of more than -150 is playing the first game of a series with a run total of 9 or over.
Another steep price on the favorite is too much to invest for such little return, and the Astros offer no incentive after yesterday’s battering, so the free MLB pick today is
Play Houston-Oakland Over 9
MLB Monday Stuff
By Dave Essler
Pirates at Nationals: Either cheap for Washington or a trap. Haren has been terrible and not backable, really, at any price. People will want to fade Morton, but the Pirates won a huge game on Sunday in Cincinnati. The drawback here is the Pirates used a lot of arms. There's part of me that says this goes over (because of bullpens) and at 8 I might, but not 8.5
Atlanta-Mets: Teheran is by far the Braves liability and has benefited from Turner Field. I do like the Mets against RHP much better, but Atlanta used NONE of their bullpen in the loss to the White Sox. If the Braves are all healthy and have the right lineup, I think they win this one late, if not sooner.
Padres-Brewers: Milwaukee just used way too many pitchers to back again here, and the Padres do far better against LHP. They're playing well and no reason not to back them, other than Gorzellany gets me more often than not.
Miami-Colorado: Again, the Fish used a ton of arms and Keohler isn't typically someone that's going to pitch deep, and I simply don't trust Pomeranz yet, at least not at -160. Just hasn't has enough experience, and actually pitched a minor league game over the AS break to keep his routine, which COULD be a plus. At 10 I could consider the over, but not 10.5 and would have to pass the side or take Fish RL.
Cubs-D-backs: Skaggs also pitched in Visaloia over the break, but simply cannot be trusted here. We've got a known entity in Garza facing a team that comes home after a brutal series with the Giants. Cubs or nothing, and lean under.
Reds at Giants: Not betting a Reds game! I would take the Giants simply because Arroyo is not that great against RHP's, but really think the play here is on the under. Giants not hitting and Lincecum should do just enough to keep the Giants in this game. I don't fade a good team that plays sound (except when Sandoval tries to score on a WP) with a good bullpen at home.
New York-Texas: Very obvious rest factor here since Texas has been home and NY won't get to Arlington till about when the sun rises. Pretty steep price for Darvish here and some of that likely based on the travel factor, because the Rangers haven't been hitting. Might consider the Yankees RL and the under here.
Baltimore-Kansas City: Two teams that cannot be trusted and two pitchers that cannot be trusted. Because it's still Feldman I almost always expect some regression which never seems to come, and because Davis is a flyball pitcher I have to lean Orioles here. But, they've got some travel to do as well. When I take the Royals they are the Royals, so probably better games, but not sure this doesn't go over.
Oakland-Houston: I would dearly love to find a way to take the Astros at this number, but could only do it with the RL. One has to wonder if Oakland isn't a little fat after having beaten up on the Angels and then travelling, but it's still Houston. Facing Milone should seem like BP after facing Felix, and that's an awful bit total, even in Houston, for teams than CAN go into slumps. Could be tough here with the Astros using so many arms against Seattle, but if and when I do fade the A's it's typically against LHP. We'll see who does and doesn't play first.
Detroit at Chicago: I suppose if we were ever to bet on the White Sox again it would be with Sale on the mound. With a manager perhaps going and players on the trading block, they're a dicey proposition, but they've got a hated division rival coming in, and although Max is an all-star, he's not unhittable. Have to lean White Sox and under.
Minnesota-LA Angels: Because it's Joe Blanton and because most of the Twins have hit him hard, I can't take the Angels. Good luck. If Deduno is on, he is a groundball pitcher in a big park going against a team that lost badly to a division rival Sunday. This could well be the disaster play of the day.
Seattle-Cleveland: I suspect everyone will want to back Harang after his early season success at home as well as the beating Seattle has been giving people lately. Ubaldo simply isn't (usually) going to pitch deep, and at -110 they're seemingly begging for people to bet on the Mariners. Lean over at 8, but think it may go up.
Dodgers at Blue Jays: Probably the most interesting game of the day. We love the Jays against LHP, we love the Dodgers with their full (most of it) lineup back, we love the Dodgers bullpen, we love the Dodgers not having to have Ryu bat. And, we love the fact that the Dodgers have seen plenty of Johnson when he was with the Fish. So, we should take Toronto.
MLB Odds and Picks -- Picking a winner between struggling Bucs, Nats
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
One of the toughest lines to decipher when combing through today's baseball prices is finding out why Charlie Morton and the Pirates are underdogs at Washington tonight against Dan Haren. Sure, the Pirates have been struggling lately, losing seven of their last 11 games, and Morton has only one win in six starts since returning from elbow surgery. But take a look at the Nationals, and especially the feats of Haren. What's going on with this line?
Washington had lost five of its last seven before the All-Star break, and then promptly got swept at home by the Dodgers. The Nats, who are now two games under .500, were just 2-for-26 with runners in scoring position against the Dodgers, which led to only five runs for their entire weekend series.
The Nats' case for getting a win tonight gets severely worse when factoring in Haren's impact. We could mention all kinds of numbers to make him look bad, but the team losing 10 straight starts behind him stands alone as the most convincing argument. He's gone 0-7 with a 5.93 ERA in that span, which is the longest losing streak of his career.
While we don't have many positives regarding Haren tonight, we do find plenty to like about Morton, who comes off his best start of the season, allowing only two runs in seven innings in 3-2 win against the Mets. The Pirates are 4-2 behind Morton, and he appears to be getting more comfortable with every start.
Rays on fire
That figure getting closer in the Red Sox's rearview mirror is Tampa Bay charging hard. The Rays have outscored their opponents 94-44 since June 29, while going 17-2 in that span, and have pulled within 1.5 games of frontrunner Boston in the AL East.
Boston has won nine of 12 against Tampa this season, but this is a different Rays team right now. Matt Moore takes the mound tonight looking for his 14th win and No. 2 against the Sox.
Boston is playing great ball right now, but the Rays are on a completely different momentum plateau. Tampa Bay will be going for a sixth straight win with the red-hot Moore going against rookie Brandon Workman, who is making his second career start. Best of all, the Rays' price is only -125.
Monday's selections:
Pirates (Morton) +126 at Nationals
Rays (Moore) -125 at Red Sox
Mariners (Aaron Harang) -110 vs. Indians
Second-half record: 9-6 (+399)