National League
Phillies @ Marlins
Hellickson is 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts; Phillies split his eight road starts. Hellickson's last six starts stayed under the total.
Cosart was 0-1, 8.59 in his three starts (over 3-0), last of which was April 22.
Phillies lost six of last eight games; over is 18-7 in their last 24 road games. Marlins are 8-3 in last 11 home games; under is 10-5 in their last fifteen games. Marlins are 8-8 in home series openers. Phillies are 6-10 in road series openers.
Cardinals @ Mets
Martinez is 5-1, 1.50 in his last nine starts; under is 6-0-1 in his last seven starts. Cardinals are 5-2 in his road starts.
Syndergaard is 1-1, 2.60 in his last three starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. New York is 6-4 in his home starts.
St Louis won five of last seven games but lost last two; they're 5-9 in road series openers. Three of their last four games went over. Mets are 5-7 in last 12 games, 2-4 in last six home games; they're 12-3 in home series openers. Under is 11-1 in their last twelve games.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Shipley makes his MLB debut here; he was 8-5, 3.70 in 19 starts at hitter-friendly Reno.
Anderson is 0-4, 9.51 in his last six starts (over 5-0-1). Brewers are 3-5 in his home starts.
Arizona lost 17 of its last 22 games, is 9-6 in road series openers; four of their last five road games stayed under. Milwaukee lost eight of last 11 games; under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Miller Park. Brewers are 3-14 in home series openers.
Reds @ Giants
DeSclafani is 5-0, 2.59 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-2 in his last five.
Peavy is 1-2, 6.20 in his last four starts; eight of his last ten stayed under. Giants won his last five home starts.
Cincinnati won six of its last nine games, is 9-8 in road series openers. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. San Francisco is off a 1-7 road trip; they won five of last six at home- they're 8-7 in home series openers. Last three Giant games stayed under the total.
American League
Tigers @ Red Sox
Verlander is 2-0, 2.28 in his last four starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11. Detroit is 5-4 when he starts on the road.
Pomeranz is 3-0, 2.50 in his last five starts; six of his last eight stayed under. He allowed three runs in five IP (80 PT) in his Boston debut.
Boston won 12 of last 16 home games; seven of last 11 Red Sox games stayed under the total. Sox won their last five home series openers. Detroit is 4-7 in its last 11 road games, 6-11 in road series openers. Under is 11-2-1 in Tigers' last 14 games.
A's @ Rangers
Mengden is 1-5, 5.93 in eight starts this year; four of his last five went over.
Perez is 0-3, 13.79 in his last three starts; six of his last seven home starts stayed under the total. Texas won his last five home starts.
Oakland won seven of last ten games; five of last six stayed under the total. A's are 10-5 in road series openers. Texas lost 15 of last 21 games but won last two; they're 8-6 in road series openers. Seven of last eight Ranger home games went over.
Bronx @ Astros
Pineda is 1-2, 5.29 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under. Bronx ix 3-5 when he starts on the road.
Keuchel is 3-0, 3.29 in his last six starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Houston is 4-4 in his home starts, but won last three.
Houston won eight of its last ten home games; they're 10-6 in home series openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games. New York won six of its last eight games, is 7-8 in home series openers. Over is 11-2 in last thirteen Bronx road games- on the homestand they just finished, under was 10-0.
Angels @ Royals
Santiago is 4-0, 1.44 in his last four starts; over is 11-4 in his last 15. Halos are 7-3 when he starts on the road.
Kennedy is 0-2, 5.66 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under. Royals won five of his seven home starts.
Home side won Angels' last 11 games; they've lost last five road games, are 7-9 in road series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Royals lost seven of last ten games; five of KC's last seven home games went over the total.
Interleague
Rockies @ Orioles
De la Rosa is 1-3, 6.00 in his last four starts (over 9-4). Colorado split his eight road starts.
Gallardo is 0-1, 5.57 in his last four starts; six of his last eight stayed under. Orioles won all four of his home starts.
Colorado won seven of last ten games, is 9-7 in road series openers. Seven of their last nine Rockies games stayed under. Baltimore won its last four games; their last 12 games stayed under the total. Orioles are 9-7 in home series openers.
Padres @ Blue Jays
Rea is 2-2, 6.98 in his last six starts; over is 12-3 in his last fifteen. San Diego won five of his seven road starts.
Sanchez is 4-0, 2.03 in his last six starts; seven of his last nine stayed under. Toronto won five of his last six home starts.
Padres lost eight of last ten road games; six of their last nine road games stayed under total. San Diego is 11-5 in road series openers. Toronto won nine of last 12 home games, is 5-11 in home series openers. Seven of last eight games in SkyDome stayed under.
Cubs @ White Sox
Arrieta is 0-2, 5.40 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Cubs are 8-2 in his road starts, but lost last two.
Gonzalez is 1-2, 3.46 in his last four starts (under 3-1). White Sox are 2-3 in his home starts.
Cubs won seven of last ten games, are 4-7 in last 11 road series openers. Eight of Cubs' last nine games stayed under. White Sox lost eight of last 11 games but won last two; they're 8-8 in home series openers.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Phil-Mia-- Hellickson 10-10; Cosart 1-2
StL-NY-- Martinez 9-9; Syndergaard 12-6
Az-Mil-- Shipley 0-0; Anderson 6-12
Cin-SF-- DeSclafani 6-2; Peavy 10-9
Det-Bos-- Verlander 11-9; Pomeranz 1-0/9-8
A's-Tex-- Mengden 2-6; Perez 10-10 (0-3 last 3)
NY-Hst-- Pineda 9-10; Keuchel 9-11
LAA-KC-- Santiago 14-6 (5-0 last 5); Kennedy 9-10 (2-7 last 9)
Col-Balt-- De la Rosa 6-7; Gallardo 7-4
SD-Tor-- Rea 10-7; Sanchez 12-7
Cubs-CWS-- Arrieta 13-6 (3-6 last 9); Gonzalez 6-8
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Phil-Mia-- Hellickson 6-20; Cosart 2-3
StL-NY-- Martinez 1-18; Syndergaard 4-18
Az-Mil-- Shipley 0-0; Anderson 7-18
Cin-SF-- DeSclafani 4-8; Peavy 4-19
Det-Bos-- Verlander 8-20; Pomeranz 3-18
A's-Tex-- Mengden 1-8; Perez 7-20
NY-Hst-- Pineda 7-19; Keuchel 4-20
LAA-KC-- Santiago 8-20; Kennedy 7-19
Col-Balt-- De la Rosa 5-13; Gallardo 6-11
SD-Tor-- Rea 9-17; Sanchez 4-19
Cubs-CWS-- Arrieta 3-19; Gonzalez 6-14
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Power Sports
Covers.com
Interleague Play Takes Center Stage
Of the 15 series that take place in the first half of the week, seven will be of the Interleague variety. The headliner will be the “battle for Chicago” with two games taking place on both the North and South side of the city. There will also be four, short two-game series taking place Tuesday-Wednesday. Those are Seattle-Pittsburgh, Washington-Cleveland, Atlanta-Minnesota (yuck!) and Tampa Bay-Los Angeles. For the record, the American League holds a 106-87 edge in Interleague Games this year. Seattle could be a team to watch in Pittsburgh as the Mariners are 9-3 vs. the National League in 2016. The A.L. has won Interleague Play every year since 2004. The current .549 win percentage is right in line with the average percentage, year to year, over the last decade.
Rocky Road
On paper, you would seem to heavily favor Baltimore this week against Colorado. The Rockies’ offensive numbers (predictably) dip dramatically outside of Coors Field (they do add a designated hitter here) and the Orioles are now a very-strong 36-14 at Camden Yards after an impressive sweep of Cleveland over the weekend. That’s the best home record in all of baseball. But there is one interesting note that I’d like to pass along here. Factoring in only road games, the ERA of the much maligned Colorado staff is 3.83, which is actually seventh best overall! The ERA’s of the respective two starting rotations overall are not that different as Baltimore ranks 25th (4.95) while Colorado ranks 28th (5.04). A big deal here though could be that the Orioles best starter (Chris Tillman) will go Tuesday while the Rockies best starter (Tyler Anderson) won’t be going at all in this series.
Going North
The Blue Jays could use a big boost right now. They just dropped two of three at home to Seattle over the weekend are three games out in the American League East. Still though, they are in Wild Card position. Personally, I think the team is better than its overall record, but its Interleague record (11-6) remains strong. Those 11 Interleague victories are the most of any team in baseball right now. Were it not for a poor record in one-run games (9-18), this team would probably be winning its division. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Jays hammer the Padres this week even though San Diego has been shockingly competitive against San Francisco, St. Louis and Washington since the All-Star Break (5-5 overall).
Pitching Notes
One of the biggest stories making the rounds right now is the Chris Sale saga in Chicago. The White Sox ace has been suspended for five games due to apparently tearing up a team uniform that he did not wish to wear Saturday. As a result, he will miss the entire series against the Cubs. Some are saying this could be the final nail in the White Sox coffin, which is too bad for a season that started with so much promise (team was 26-13 at one point!). The Sox will be an underdog in every game in this series.
In the Rockies-Orioles writeup, I mentioned Chris Tillman being Baltimore’s best pitcher. This statement is not up for debate. Tillman has an 18-3 team start record, making him the best pitcher to have bet on in 2016 (+16.2 units) by a fairly comfortable margin. He’s been especially dominant of late by giving up just one run in seven innings in four straight starts (all wins) with only 16 hits allowed.
Hitter Notes
Now isn’t the best time to talking about Cleveland’s exploits as they just got swept in Baltimore. They scored only six runs total in the three-game series. Looking ahead, the Indians’ 28th place ranking in batting average (.238) and 30th place ranking in on base percentage (.297) in road games doesn’t bode well for them. Thankfully then (for them), they are at home this week against Washington. The Tribe offense is fifth in runs scored at home.
Teams whose overall offensive numbers could decline this week are Seattle and Tampa Bay as both head to National League Parks and thus will be losing the designated hitter from the lineup. Of those two teams, the Mariners are clearly more likely to absorb the loss of the DH as the Rays are only 25th in runs scored to begin with.
Totals Trend
The Over is 9-2 for San Diego in Interleague Play. Incredibly, those games have averaged 15.3 runs per game.
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Cubs (7-3 past 10)
The Cubs managed a 5-15 record from May 20 to July 9 to rustle up that old doubt in the minds of even the most faithful north sider supporter. However, order has been restored since the All-Star break, as the Cubs are 7-3 over their past 10 games after taking two of three in Milwaukee this past weekend. The Cubs meet their rivals from the south side, and that usually means good things. The Cubbies are 6-1 in their past seven interleague games, and 10-2 in their past 12 interleague road battles against a team with a losing record. Plus, it's good to have Jake Arrieta on the bump, as the Cubs are 23-4 in his past 27 assignments away from home while going 22-8 in his past 30 against a team with a losing overall mark.
Coldest team: Brewers (3-8 past 11)
The Brewers lost two of three from the Cubs, and they have now dropped six of their past seven series going 7-13 over the past 20 games. Milwaukee might catch a break with Arizona visiting, as the Diamondbacks have been equally inept lately. The Snakes turn to their top pitching prospect, Braden Shipley, to try and stem the the tide of losing. Arizona as dropped seven of their past eight road games, and they're just 3-15 in their past eight 18 vs. RHP. Milwaukee is 1-4 in their past five at home, 1-6 in their past seven against right-handed starters and 1-5 in Chase Anderson's past six outings. Something's gotta give between Arizona and Milwaukee.
Hottest pitcher: Justin Verlander, Tigers (9-6, 3.74 ERA)
Verlander's overall numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he is making up for lost time. He is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and just eight walks over the past 20 2/3 innings. The Tigers are 6-2 in Verlander's past eight starts against a team with a winning overall record, and 5-2 in hisp ast seven road outings against winning teams. While the Tigers are 7-3 in their past 10 against the American League East, the Tigers are only 3-10 in Verlander's past 13 assignments against AL East foes.
Coldest pitcher: Martin Perez, Texas (7-7, 4.37 ERA)
Perez has been horrid in the month of July, going 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in four starts in the month, allowing five or more earned runs in each of his past three outings, all losses. Perez posted quality starts in six of seven outings from May 8 to June 9, but he has managed just two over his past seven assignments since. The Rangers have been terrible lately, winning just 3-8 in their past 11 games, and Perez doesn't figure to stem the tide of losing. While the Rangers are a surprising 8-3 in his past 11 outings, they're 0-5 in his past five against teams with a losing overall record.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (12-0 past 12)
The 'under' run for Baltimore has been amazing, one of a handful of impressive streaks. The 'under' is also 10-0 in the past 10 for the Yankees, 1-10-1 in the past 12 for the Mets and 2-8 over the past 10 for the Giants. Suddenly the offense has dried up for a lot of teams. Strong pitching has been the key to Baltimore's amazing under run, as they have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their past four games, and nine of the past 12 outings. They face a Colorado team which has seen the under go 12-4 in their past 16 against right-handed starting pitching, and 7-2 in their past nine road outings.
Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (5-3 past 8 )
Offense has been at a premium lately in the majors, as teams appear to have a hangover after the All-Star break. The Cardinals have bucked that trend somewhat, as the 'over' is 5-3 in their past eight games, 5-1 in their past six against National League East teams and 3-1-5 in Martinez's past nine outings against NL East teams. The under is the predominant trend for the Mets, but the over is 4-1 in Noah Syndergaard's past five home outings and 7-2 in his past nine games overall.
Matchup to watch: Yankees vs. Astros
It's a tale of two teams when the Yankees host the Astros at Minute Maid Park for the series opener Monday. The Yankees took two of three from the contending Giants in interleague play over the weekend, but the Bronx Bombers are still just two games over .500 and expected to be sellers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Astros have won four in a row, and they're 11-5 over the past 16 outings to find themselves right in the wild-card mix. New York enters 6-2 in their past eight games overall, but 6-13 in their past 19 road outings against a team with a winning record and 5-12 in their past 17 against a left-handed starter. The Astros are 24-6 in Dallas Keuchel's past 30 home starts, and the Astros are 7-1 in their past eight home games against a team with a winning overall record.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros have picked on the weak to get where they are in the standings, going 4-0 in their past four home games against a team with a losing road record. However, they have also handled their business against winning teams, too, especially at home. They're 7-1 in their past eight at Minute Maid Park against winning teams while going 54-23 in their past 77 games overall. The Astros face Michael Pineda, and the Yankes are just 1-5 in his past six road outings against a team with a winning overall record.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-255) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Diamondbacks (+125) at Brewers
Biggest line move: Blue Jays (-230 to -255) vs. Padres
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs open a four game home-home series on the South Side starting Monday. One of the more unusual dichotomies MLB bettors need to take note of, is the atypical home/road splits in this series. Since 2012, backing the club playing in the opposing park has been the correct choice. Pale Hose have won seven of ten at Wrigley Field, the Cubbies have won seven of ten at U.S. Cellular Field.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are slumpin', the nosedive has reached a woeful 1-7 stretch in which the club has platted just 2.9 runs/game while the pitching staff has given up a whopping 5.0 per/contest. Giants must now try to solve one of the leagues hottest pitchers, Cinci's Anthony DeSclafani. The righthander is undefeated (5-0, 2.50 ERA) and has spun six consecutive quality starts with an eye-opening 36-3 KW ratio.
Tigers travel to Boston
By Sportsbook.ag
DETROIT TIGERS (51-46) at BOSTON RED SOX (54-41)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Detroit +125, Boston -135, Total: 9.5
The Tigers will be looking to avoid a third straight loss when they face the Red Sox in Boston on Monday.
The Tigers have playoff hopes, but the team is really struggling right now. Detroit comes into this game after having lost two straight contests and four of its past six. It will need to find a way to turn things around and earn a victory or two in this series in Boston.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, are coming off of an 8-7 victory over the Twins on Sunday. They did, however, lose two games in that three-game set, but it’s not too bad considering they have won six of their past nine. One thing this Boston team has been doing all season is scoring, as the team has put up eight or more runs in four of its past five games. These teams have not yet met this season, but Detroit is 4-2 when playing Boston at Fenway Park over the past three seasons.
The starters in this one are set to be RHP Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.74 ERA, 139 K) for the Tigers and LHP Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.83 ERA, 119 K) for the Red Sox. It’s worth noting that the Sox are 3-11 against the money line after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games this season. OF Mookie Betts (Knee) is listed as questionable for Boston in this game as well.
The Tigers can use a victory on Monday and Justin Verlander will be the guy tasked with shutting down an explosive Red Sox lineup. Verlander might just be up to the task, as he has pitched extremely well recently. The righty just pitched a brilliant game against the Twins, allowing just one earned run in eight innings of work on Jul. 20. He struck out nine batters in that game and has now fanned eight or more batters in three of the past four starts he has made. Verlander has also been solid against Boston over the years, as he has a 2.37 ERA in his past three starts against the team.
Offensively, two Tigers that have had some success against Pomeranz are OFs Cameron Maybin (.325, 2 HR, 26 RBI) and Justin Upton (.235, 11 HR, 40 RBI). The two of them are a combined 4-for-9 with Pomeranz and it’d be big if they could provide something on Monday. A few hits from each of them would come a long way in helping the Tigers win this game, as the rest of Detroit’s lineup would surely be able to drive them in.
Drew Pomeranz was awful in his first start with the Red Sox, allowing five earned runs in just three innings of work against the Giants on Jul. 20. He’ll be hoping to rebound on Monday, but it won’t be easy against the Tigers. One thing Pomeranz is going to need to do is stay poised. He walked two batters in his three innings that game and must locate his pitchers better. He should, however, be just fine moving forward, as he was really pitching well before the deal.
On offense, the Red Sox will be counting on guys like DH David Ortiz (.332, 24 HR, 81 RBI), SS Xander Bogaerts (.333, 11 HR, 61 RBI) and 3B Aaron Hill (.272, 8 HR, 31 RBI). Ortiz has dominated Verlander in the past, going 11-for-29 with four doubles, two homers and four RBI against the pitcher in his career. Bogaerts and Hill, meanwhile, have combined to go 7-for-22 with three doubles and two RBI against him. It’d be big if all three can get it going on Monday, but it should be expected that Ortiz will produce in some way in this one.