MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 31st, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Foltynewicz is 5-0, 2.95 in his last six starts; his last three starts went over. Braves won his last four road outings— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-5

Pivetta is 1-2, 9.37 in his last three starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Phillies are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-2

Braves lost seven of last eight games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. Philly is 8-3 in its last 11 games; under is 3-0 in their last three games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Gonzalez is 1-4, 2.48 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Washington is 7-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-4

Urena is 3-1, 6.00 in his last five starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Miami is 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2

Nationals are 5-3 in last eight games, 11-6 in road series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Miami won four of last five games; over is 6-1 in their last seven. Marlins are 7-3 in last ten home series openers.

American League

Royals @ Orioles
Duffy is 2-1, 2.75 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-3

Jimenez is 0-3, 8.40 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Orioles are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

Royals are 10-1 in last 11 games, 5-2 in last seven road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Baltimore is 8-5 in last 13 games, 1-5 in last six home series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

Detroit @ New York
Fulmer is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five road starts. Tigers are 1-4 in his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Severino is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. New York is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-3

Tigers are 4-7 in last 11 games, 3-6 in last nine road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. New York is 8-2 in last ten games, 10-6 in home series openers- their last three games all stayed under.

Indians @ Red Sox
Clevinger is 2-0, 2.86 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Indians are 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2

Fister is 0-3, 8.53 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Red Sox lost both his Fenway starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-4

Cleveland won nine of its last ten games; over is 7-4 in their last 11. Indians are 8-10 in road series openers. Boston lost six of last eight games; under is 13-3-1 in last 17 games at Fenway Park. Red Sox are 11-6 in home series openers.

Mariners @ Rangers
Hernandez is 2-1, 3.04 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Seattle is 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1

Hamels is 3-1, 3.51 in his last five starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Texas won his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-0-2

Mariners won six of last seven road games; they’re 7-4 in last 11 road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Texas lost five of last seven home games; they’re 9-8 in home series openers. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.

Rays @ Astros
Cobb is 3-0, 1.48 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Tampa Bay is 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-3

Morton is 3-1, 3.41 in his last five starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts. Houston is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-2

Rays lost four of last five road games, are 5-1 in last six road series openers. Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. Houston lost three of last four games, is 1-6 in last seven home series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Blue Jays @ White Sox
Estrada is 0-2, 6.75 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 5-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-12-3

Shields is 0-2, 9.00 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-2

Toronto won five of last seven games; they’re 4-7 in last 11 road series openers. Three of their last four games went over. White Sox are 2-13 since All-Star Game; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Chicago is 5-11 in home series openers.

Interleague

Giants @ A’s
Cain is 0-4, 7.47 in his last six starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten. Giants lost his last five starts on road— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-13-1

Gray is 3-1, 2.96 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Oakland is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6

Giants lost their last five road games; they’re 8-9 in road series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. Oakland lost nine of last 12 games, but won last two; under is 4-2-1 in their last six. A’s are 7-10 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Foltynewicz 12-7 (9-0 last 9); Pivetta 4-10
Wsh-Mia: Gonzalez 11-10; Urena 11-5

American League
KC-Balt: Duffy 8-8; Jimenez 8-8
Det-NYY: Fulmer 11-9; Severino 11-9
Clev-Bos: Clevinger 7-6; Fister 1-3

Sea-Tex: Hernandez 6-6; Hamels 6-5
TB-Hst: Cobb 11-10; Morton 9-5
Tor-Chi: Estrada 9-12; Shields 3-7

Interleague
SF-A’s: Cain 8-11; Gray 8-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Foltynewicz 4-19; Pivetta 5-14
Wsh-Mia: Gonzalez 7-21; Urena 3-16

American League
KC-Balt: Duffy 3-16; Jimenez 5-16
Det-NYY: Fulmer 7-20; Severino 4-20
Clev-Bos: Clevinger 1-13; Fister 2-4

Sea-Tex: Hernandez 6-12; Hamels 5-11
TB-Hst: Cobb 4-21; Morton 2-14
Tor-Chi: Estrada 8-21; Shields 3-10

Interleague
SF-A’s: Cain 7-19; Gray 2-16

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 53-42 AL, favorites -$756
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 102-98 AL, favorites -$1,122

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 49-46-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 109-88-6

Armadillosports.com

Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Marlins (4-1 past five games, 7-3 past 10 overall)

The Marlins welcome the first-place Nationals to town, as Miami looks to chip away at Washington's lead. The Nats have a 13-game cushion over the second-place Fish, and the Marlins are still two games under .500 at home this season. However, they're playing much better lately, going 4-1 over the past five games overall. They're also 4-0 over Jose Urena's past four starts with four days of rest, although they're 5-13 over his past 18 home outings and 1-7 across his past eight starts against the National League East. Still, they're always dangerous as long as they have the major league's leading homer hitter, Giancarlo Stanton. He has 10 homers and 26 RBI in 140 at-bats against Washington since the start of the 2014 season.

Coldest team: Giants (2-5 past seven overall, 18-39 past 57 road games)

The Giants played the Dodgers tough on Sunday Night Baseball, likely raising some eyebrows that they're so far out of contention. They lost 3-2 in 11 innings, their second straight one-run loss to the first-place Dodgers. Now, the Giants will return home to the Bay Area. Well, sort of. They'll cross the Oakland Bay Bridge and play two at O.co Coliseum before heading back across the bay to face the A's at home for two more. July 31 is the non-waiver trade deadline in Major League Baseball, but it's unlikely either of the starting pitchers are affected in this one. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see some offensive assets shipped off, so keep an eye on that.

Hottest pitcher: Michael Fulmer, Tigers (10-8, 3.35 ERA) and Luis Severino, Yankees (7-4, 3.03 ERA)

There haven't been a lot of bright spots in Motown this season, as they have endured uncharacteristic struggles and find themselves as sellers at the deadline. However, the All-Star Fulmer's pitching has been a highlight, as he ranks 16th in the majors in ERA at 3.35, winning 10 of his 18 decisions over 20 starts with a sparkling 1.10 WHIP over 134 1/3 innings. He'll be matched up against Severino in an attractive and underrated pitching matchup on Monday night, especially for such an abbreviated card. The Tigers have won 10 of Fulmer's past 13 against the American League East, but they're just 1-4 over his past five on the road. The Yankees are 7-1 in their past eight against right-handed pitching, 6-1 over the past seven overall and 5-1 in their past six at home. But, while they're 4-0 over Severino's past four starts, they're just 1-4 in his past five vs. AL Central foes and 3-10 over his past 13 on four days of rest. And it's rather inexplicable, but the Yankees are 2-9 across his past 11 starts against a team with a losing overall mark.

Coldest pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles (4-7, 6.93 ERA)

Jimenez enters Monday's start with an ERA just south of seven, with only Minnesota's Bartolo Colon (7.70 ERA) ahead of him among eligible starting pitchers. Not good. U has shown no signs of improvement, and, in fact, he might be getting worse. He enters with a 1-4 record, 8.28 ERA and a .324 opponent batting average over 25 innings across five starts in the month of July. Despite Jimenez's shakiness, the O's are an impressive 28-9 over his past 37 starts at Camden Yards. However, they're 1-4 over his past five, 1-5 over his past six outings against teams with a winning overall record and 1-6 over his past seven on four days of rest.

Biggest UNDER run: Royals (6-2 past eight overall)

The 'under' has been a frequent result during Kansas City's red-hot run of late. The under is 6-2 over their past eight games overall, 6-2-1 over their past nine road outings and 6-2-1 in their past nine away from home against a team with a winning overall home record. The under is also 9-4 across Kansas City's past 13 games against teams from the American League East. The under has cashed in six of Danny Duffy's past seven starts against American League East opponents while hitting in eight of Duffy's past 11 starts overall. The under has also hit in four of K.C.'s past five against a right-handed starting pitcher.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (12-5 past 17 vs. Mariners)

The Rangers welcome the Mariners to Arlington, and that has meant plenty of runs lately. The over has cashed in five of the past six meetings in Arlington while going 12-5 over the past 17 overall in the series. The over is also 4-0 in the past four outings by Cole Hamels against Seattle. In Hamels' past 10 at home, the over is 7-1-2, and the over is 7-1-1 in his past nine outings against divisional foes. The over is also 35-14-4 in the past 53 overall for Hamels. The under is 3-0-1 in the past four divisional games for the Rangers, and 5-0-1 in their past six series openers.

Matchup to watch: Marlins vs. Nationals

The Nationals are a case of the rich getting richer, as they have been stockpiling pieces to improve their club, while the Marlins are stuck in neutral. Washington has won 11 of its past 16 games overall, and they're 8-2 in their past 10 on the road. They're also 6-1 in their past seven on the road against teams with a losing overall mark, while winning 59 of their past 88 games (.670 winning percentage) against divisional foes. Miami has won four straight series openers, but they're 3-7 in their past 10 games against a left-handed starter, including 1-5 over their past six tries at home vs. LHP. Total bettors will be interested in the fact the under has hit in 20 of the past 28 meetings between the divisional rivals.

Betcha didn’t know: Many bettors and baseball fans will not be shocked to know the Dodgers lead the league with 31 comeback victories and nine walk-off wins. However, the Athletics are tied with Los Angeles for the most wins in their final at-bat, posting nine walk-off wins themselves. That includes a bomb by All-Star Yonder Alonso in the 12th inning against the Twins in Sunday's series finale. Sonny Gray is scheduled to pitch Monday's series opener with the Giants, but he might be walking off to another organization at the trade deadline, if Oakland can garner a solid package of prospects in return.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-180) vs. Tigers

Biggest public underdog: Braves (+105) at Phillies

Biggest line move: Blue Jays (+160 to +145) at White Sox

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-105); Total: 8.5

Oddsmakers are letting the market decide on today’s matinee between the Braves and the Phillies. It will be Mike Foltynewicz for the Braves and Nick Pivetta for the Phillies. These are two teams without many irons in the fire for the Trade Deadline, so an early start doesn’t affect much of anything.

Foltynewicz had a really strong start last time out to lower his ERA to 3.82 on the season. He has a 4.54 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP, but his 79.9 percent LOB% has allowed him to carry a sub-4.00 ERA in spite of those peripherals. Folty struck out nine last time out and is up to a 20.8 percent K%. His walk rate is elevated a bit this season and so is his home run rate, but he fits the definition of an average pitcher. That’s a good thing in today’s MLB, where so many pitchers are decidedly below average.

Nick Pivetta has struggled a bit. Despite more than a strikeout per inning with 78 punchouts in 75.1 innings of work, Pivetta has had some big command problems. He’s allowed 16 home runs in those 75.1 innings of work, leading to an 18.4 percent HR/FB%. He has a 5.73 ERA with a 5.23 FIP, but his 4.53 xFIP is right on par with Foltynewicz’s mark. Pivetta’s walk rate is a bit too high for my liking, with 33 free passes on the season. He’s creating some of his own problems and then exacerbating them by giving up the long ball.

If I had to fire on today’s matinee, though, I would look at the Phillies. I see regression coming in that LOB% metric for Foltynewicz, whose strikeout rate is basically league average. High fly ball guys and high strikeout guys can carry well above average LOB% marks. Foltynewicz is neither. He’s basically neutral on his batted ball splits and average in his K%. Pivetta has a little bit of positive regression coming if he can keep the ball in the yard. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Phillies have some decent young position players and should get some more up soon, so they may be a good buy team over the last two months of the regular season.

Kansas City (-140) at Baltimore; Total: 10

Why wouldn’t the red-hot Royals stay red-hot facing a bum like Ubaldo Jimenez? It doesn’t hurt that staff ace Danny Duffy will take the mound for the surging Royals. Duffman now has a 3.56 ERA with a 3.44 FIP and a 4.67 xFIP on the season. Duffy’s 5.8 percent HR/FB% is among the best in the league and has been a big reason why he has been able to maintain good numbers despite a massive drop in strikeouts. Duffy did work 16 times in relief last season, so you would expect higher strikeout numbers, but he still struck out over a batter per inning as a starter last year.

The Orioles lineup has been very inconsistent this season and relies on hitting for power. Duffy doesn’t give up dingers. It’s a bad matchup for Baltimore. What makes it worse is that Ubaldo Jimenez is starting and he needs all the help he can get. The maddening thing about Jimenez is that he’s so bad, but he has these lucky starts from time to time like his last outing against the Rays. Jimenez worked six strong with nine strikeouts. He had one of those on June 29 with eight shutout innings against the Jays. In between, he allowed 21 runs over a four-start span.

You still have to play the percentages and assume that he’ll be bad, because he usually is. I don’t have much interest in backing Jimenez in any context. The Orioles have said that Mychal Givens is off limits, but Brad Brach and Zach Britton could definitely be on the move. The strength of the Orioles right now is their bullpen. We’ll see the market move quickly if they weaken that area of the club. We’ve already seen some KC movement and I would expect more.

Washington (-130) at Miami; Total: 9

It seems like the Miami Marlins are going to get through the Trade Deadline mostly unscathed. AJ Ramos and David Phelps have been traded, but it doesn’t appear that Dan Straily will get moved and none of the position players have been traded. The Marlins are like this every season with notoriously cheap owner Jeffrey Loria at the helm. With the lineup in tact, the Marlins will take their hacks against Gio Gonzalez. Jose Urena will go for the Marlins.

This annoys me because I really wanted to fade Gio Gonzalez. I’m going to anyway, but I’m not going to like it. I’d much rather see somebody other than Jose Urena, but there’s not much we can do about how the rotations set up. Let’s look at the regression signs for Gonzalez. First, he has an 84.5 percent LOB%. That is almost 11 percent above his career mark and well above the league average, which usually falls between 72 and 73 percent. Next, his 2.81 ERA comes with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP. Next, his .251 BABIP is 43 points below his career average. He’s not giving up an insane number of home runs, so his BABIP should not be as low as it is. His K% is slightly up from last season, but his BB% is the highest it has been since 2011. These are all concerning signs and all signs of impending regression in my mind. We got some two starts ago in Anaheim, but he bounced back really well against Milwaukee. I’m looking for some rough outings in the days ahead.

Jose Urena has a 4.04 ERA with a 5.19 FIP and a 5.49 xFIP, so it’s not easy to back him in any context. Urena has a 76.3 percent LOB%, hence the low ERA, but he’s also lowered his HR/FB% from last season. That’s not because his command has gotten better, it’s just because he’s inducing more fly balls. He’s been a valuable piece for the Marlins in that he’s spared their young arms from pitching out of necessity in the rotation, but he’s still a below average piece.

The Marlins have been steamed a ton this season, but he’s the one guy that the market hasn’t really backed. I think there’s some room for doing it today. He has some of the same regression signs as Gonzalez, with a .249 BABIP and a high LOB%, so I’m looking at the over in this game as well, but I think making the play with the Marlins at plus money is also reasonable. At the very least, I’d look to play the Marlins team total over and hope that Gonzalez’s regression does come to the forefront.

Cleveland (-135) at Boston; Total: 10.5

Mike Clevinger and the Indians are favored on the road against the Boston Red Sox and Doug Fister. Normally, I look to fade a team coming off of a long winning streak. Once that balloon pops, it can be hard to re-inflate it and get back in the win column, but the Indians are being pushed by the Royals and start up a series at Fenway Park against another likely division winner.

Clevinger is a very interesting pitcher. He has a 3.20 ERA with a 4.17 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP. As a result, I think we’ll start to see some money come in against him in future outings, maybe as early as today. He has a .252 BABIP against with an 80.7 percent LOB%. The key distinction to make here is that Clevinger allows a ton of weak contact. The hard contact he does allow seems to leave the ballpark. He’s struck out 78 in 70.2 innings of work, but has also walked 35. It’s a really hard profile to buy into, yet the weak contact element plays such a huge role. More often than not, I don’t know what we’re going to get from Clevinger, so I generally stay away.

Doug Fister has been throwing batting practice for the Red Sox. In four starts and three relief outings covering 25.1 innings, Fister has a 7.46 ERA with a 5.79 FIP and a 5.92 xFIP. He’s struck out 21 and walked 17, while also allowing four home runs. Fister waited until June to sign with somebody and only made three starts for Anaheim’s Triple-A team before they cut the cord. The Red Sox snagged him up for back end of the rotation help and he hasn’t been a whole lot of help.

For these to be two pretty good teams, this is a pretty ugly game and an ugly handicap. If both offenses were more consistent, I’d say that we could see some runs today. Overall, though, I have no idea. My initial thought was that this line was a little bit high, so there may be value on the Red Sox, but Fister has also been awful, so that’s a hard bet to make at just about any price.

Seattle at Texas (-120); Total: 10.5

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker got caught with their pants down hanging a really bad number on Texas today. The Rangers opened -140 with Cole Hamels on the hill, but that number is now down below -120. Felix Hernandez is on the hill for the Mariners.

There’s a lot to unpack about this game. Let’s start with King Felix. Since returning from the DL on June 23, Felix has been a lot better. He has a 3.67 ERA with a 4.85 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. The high FIP is because eight of the 34 hits he has allowed have been home runs, but he has 42 strikeouts in 41.2 innings of work, so the swing and miss is back. He allowed five of the eight home runs in his first three starts back and has allowed one home run in each of his last three starts, so he’s only allowed three in his last four outings. He has only walked four over his last 17.2 innings of work after walking 11 in his first four starts over 24 innings.

The weak contact profile may have returned with a .245 BABIP against in those seven starts. Keep in mind that he has allowed eight home runs, which don’t count towards BABIP. I look at Hernandez and see an asset gaining some value. We’ll see if his HR/FB% regresses and it should because it’s at 23.3 percent. Even with a natural decline for age and workload, it shouldn’t be 12 percent above his career mark. Hernandez has a 3.81 xFIP, which is a sign of what could be possible if the HR/FB% starts to regress.

Cole Hamels has a 3.97 ERA with a 4.88 FIP and a 4.97 xFIP. Hamels is carrying around a .234 BABIP against, but his K% is way down this season. It seems to me like he has been very fortunate on batted balls in play. He’s given up a few home runs this year and also had a DL stint of his own. Hamels missed two months and returned June 26. He has a 4.78/4.53/4.55 pitcher slash in that span. The K% is up a bit and the BB% is down a bit, but he still hasn’t been all that effective.

I also think there’s a natural letdown coming for Texas. Adrian Beltre got his 3,000th hit yesterday. That was a big moment for all involved. It was a silver lining to a pretty poor weekend of baseball for the Rangers against the Orioles. I don’t see the Rangers as a team to buy going forward. A Yu Darvish trade today would seal their season fate.

I’m looking at the Mariners today. The drop in price overnight makes sense. There’s a little bit of meat left on the bone at the current price, but it would not surprise me to see this number go down a little more.

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Houston Astros -154

The Astros and the Rays are going to be playing in Houston tonight with Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb starting. The Rays looked like a really safe bet to make the playoffs, but the Royals have recently caught fire, and their playoff odds have been dropping pretty quickly. The Astros have also cooled off a little bit, but I think even they would concede that it’s more important to stay healthy at this point in the season than to get into some sort of a hot streak.

Charlie Morton has been one of the more fascinating pitchers to me since I read Travis Sawchik’s book Big Data Baseball. I think the biggest concern most people had with Morton coming into the season was largely with health. He’s 33 years old, and has had a pretty injury riddled career. What’s really strange though is that Morton doesn’t have an extraordinarily high groundball rate like he did in his peak with Pittsburgh. He has instead been relying on getting a lot of strikeouts. Right now, Morton is striking out a little over 10 batters per nine innings, and his peak in Pittsburgh he hovered around 7 strikeouts per nine innings. This has also coincided with him using a lot more cutters. Ultimately, I think Morton is a pretty safe pitcher, but still very valuable for the Astros.

Alex Cobb is going to be starting for the Rays. Cobb has been a pretty good pitcher this season, with an ERA of 3.46, but he’s also had quite a bit of luck. He doesn’t strike batters out too often, and while he’s never had a very high strikeout rate, it’s especially low this season at 5.87 per nine innings. He has also had luck with regards to BABIP at .268, which is much lower than what would be expected given his batted ball stats. With the Astros having some of the best quality of contact stats in the majors, this may not be a great matchup for Cobb.

MLB Underdog of the day: Detroit Tigers +167

The Tigers and the Yankees are going to be playing at Yankee Stadium with Luis Severino and Michael Fulmer starting. The Yankees have overtaken the Red Sox in the division, and at this point may even be the favorites to win the division given the Red Sox significant struggles. Meanwhile, the Tigers haven’t sold as fast as most people expected them to, but chances are is there will be some trades from them throughout the day.

Luis Severino has gone under the radar in a lot of ways, but he has also been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. Severino was also really good in 2015, but the success seemed unsustainable in a lot of ways. Critics’ fears were proven correct during 2016, as the fastball began to get hit hard by about everybody. That has changed this season, as Severino has an ERA of 3.03, and xFIP of 3.09. His fastball has also improved dramatically, last season it had a pitch value of -7.0, and this season has a pitch value of 5.9. There was always potential in the pitch given the velocity, but it moved as straight as an arrow. To be honest, it doesn’t look aesthetically different to me, and I can’t find much different from pitch fx data, but clearly something has changed.

Michael Fulmer is probably the only untouchable player on the Tigers roster right now. He is only 24 years old, and in both of his MLB seasons, he has been terrific. This season he has an ERA of 3.35, and an xFIP of 4.09. He also gets a high volume of groundballs, at 50% of batted balls. Fulmer isn’t a flamethrower, but he throws a lot of sinkers, so his velocity isn’t the most important things in the world. Playing on the road makes me a bit nervous for the Tigers, but as a value play with Fulmer starting, I would feel good about the value in this game.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Under 10.5

The Blue Jays and the White Sox are going to be playing in Chicago on trade deadline day. Marco Estrada and James Shields are going to be starting, but the White Sox don’t have much less in the field. The White Sox have been rapidly selling their present value, in exchange for prospects, starting in the offseason when they traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.

James Shields has been a really disappointing player this season. He has an ERA of 5.86, and an xFIP of 6.23, and only 2 quality starts out of 10. The decline of Shields isn’t too surprising given his age, but what surprises me the most is the fact that his groundball rate is about 10% higher than his career average. Pitchers who lose the ability to strike batters out generally move forward by getting more movement in their pitchers, and forcing a higher rate of groundballs. If Shields doesn’t find a way to accomplish that, I’m not confident that he will be on an MLB roster next season.

Marco Estrada has probably been even more disappointing that James Shields this season. Unlike Shields, Estrada came into the season with a lot of expectations, but has an ERA of 5.43, and an xFIP of 4.80. I actually do have a lot of concerns about the success of Estrada, but to be honest, I don’t like this bet because of the quality of either starter. The White Sox’s offense is filled with sub replacement players at this point, as Chicago is following Houston’s model of rebuilding. I think there is a pretty strong possibility will get 100 losses, and struggle to score runs in a pretty serious way. I just don’t think that the White Sox have enough offensive firepower to push this game over 10.5 runs, even given the low quality of the pitchers in this game.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (+100, 10.5)

The Indians travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox in Monday's opening game of a very important three-game series for both clubs.

The Indians are rolling, having won nine of their last 10 games, but they must continue to win in order to fend off the streaking Royals in the American League Central. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just 2-6 in their last eight games and sit a half game behind the first place New York Yankees in the American League East - oh yeah, and they've lost starting pitcher David Price for what could be an extended period of time.

The Indians send young right-hander Mike Clevinger to the mound for Game 1. Clevinger had a bit of a rough outing in his last start, but prior to that he had four consecutive All-Star worthy outings, allowing only two earned runs (0.75 ERA) and 10 total hits (0.875 WHIP) over 24 innings of work. He has never pitched at Fenway Park (or faced the Red Sox) but Indians' manager Terry Francona will certainly offer up plenty of advice on how to deal with the very short porch in left field, which can sometimes be intimidating and cause visiting pitchers to alter their approach on the mound.

The Red Sox will counter with veteran right-hander Doug Fister and that is...well...terrible news for Red Sox backers. In four starts since joining the Red Sox, Fister has lost three of the four outings and owns an ERA of 7.58 and a WHIP of 1.895. Fister's last start at Fenway was an ugly 4.1 innings, allowing six earned runs in an eventual 8-6 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.

This could be a bit of a weird game. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field so there is the potential for plenty of offense, but we trust Clevinger's abilities much more than those of Mr. Fister.

Pick: Indians -120

San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics (-145, 9.5)

The A's will welcome the Giants for the opening game of their four-game home-and-home Bay Bridge Series. The A's took three out of four games in this series last season, and will be looking to, at least, repeat that performance in 2017.

Oakland will open the series with rookie right-hander Paul Blackburn in Game 1. Blackburn has been very good in his five starts at the major league level (1-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and his last start was a gem in Toronto where he allowed only two hits over seven shutout innings of work against the Jays.

The Giants will counter with veteran Matt Cain who has been absolutely beat up on the road this season. In games started away from AT&T Park, Cain owns an 0-6 win/loss record with an 8.14 ERA and a WHIP of 1.985. His last two road starts were absolute dumpster-fires against not great teams in Atlanta and Detroit.

The Giants are the only team in Major League Baseball without 100 home runs on the season. Their 82 home runs sits them a whopping 20 dingers behind the Pittsburgh Pirates at the bottom of the team home runs standings. If Blackburn can keep his sinker down in the zone (or below the zone) the Giants shouldn't put up much resistance.

The Giants' bullpen gave away a tremendous start by Madison Bumgarner late last night in Los Angeles against the hated Dodgers - nothing is going right for the Giants in 2017.

Pick: A's -145

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Luis Severino, New York Yankees (7-4, 3.03 ERA, $-144)

As the Yankees continue to add pieces to their pitching staff in an attempt to hold off the Red Sox in the AL East, current starter Luis Severino continues to be a very pleasant surprise in their rotation.

Over his last three starts, the Yankees are 3-0 and Severino owns a very tidy 0.43 ERA to go along with a WHIP of 0.95.

Severino and the Yankees are big -205 favorites tonight at home against the Detroit Tigers.

Slumping: James Shields, Chicago White Sox (2-3, 5.86 ERA, $-302)

"Big Game" James Shields must not be pitching in many big games as of late. Who is he kidding with that nickname? He has never been good in big games either.

Shields is having a rough season with a rebuilding ball club but his last four starts have been particularly ugly with a team win/loss of 0-4, and ERA of 9.00, and a WHIP of 2.053.

"Big Game" James and the Sox are +155 home dogs tonight against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays.

Monday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians are 7-0 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. -120 today @ Red Sox (Fister).
* The Texas Rangers are 22-5 in Cole Hamels' last 27 home starts. -122 today vs. Mariners.
* Over is 9-0 in Alex Cobb's last nine road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Rays/Astros Total: 9.
* The Chicago White Sox are 1-11 in James Shields' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. +155 today vs. Blue Jays.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of thunderstorms for most of the day in South Florida, so the roof at Marlins Park will, most likely, be closed tonight when the Marlins welcome the Washington Nationals to town.

There will be a 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field tonight at the Oakland Coliseum where the A's and Giants will get together for the opening game of the Bay Bridge Series. The total is set at 9.5.

Indians face Red Sox
By: StatFox.com

The Indians will be going for their 10th win in 11 games when they face the Red Sox in Boston on Monday.

Cleveland is absolutely scorching right now, as the team had won nine straight games before losing 3-1 against the White Sox on Sunday. Still, the Indians have now won each of their past three series. They’ll now look to stretch their lead in the AL Central a bit more, but it won’t be easy against the Red Sox. Boston has lost seven of its past 10, but this is still a talented team. The Sox are right in the thick of things at the top of the AL East, and they’ll do what they can to get back on track in this series. The starters on Monday are set to be RHP Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.20 ERA, 78 K) for Cleveland and RHP Doug Fister (0-5, 7.46 ERA, 21 K) for Boston. Clevinger has been as solid as they come for the Indians this season, but the opposite can be said for Fister and the Red Sox. Boston has lost all but one game that Fister has pitched in this season, and he’ll need to be better soon. The Sox know that they can’t continue to send him to the hill the way he has been pitching. One thing that does, however, favor the Sox in this game is the fact that the Indians are a lousy 14-18 against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season.

The Indians are coming off of a loss, but this team is still very hot right now. They had won nine straight before dropping Sunday’s game and Clevinger will be tasked with getting them right back into the win column on Monday. The righty really struggled in his most recent trip to the mound, allowing five earned runs in 4.1 innings of work against the Angels. Cleveland did, however, win that game and Clevinger had allowed two or fewer earned runs in his previous six starts. Offensively, DH Edwin Encarnacion (.256 BA, 21 HR, 60 RBI) is somebody to keep an eye on for the Indians. After a very slow start to the season, the slugger has really come on strong for Cleveland. He has also been a bit cold the past five contests, so he should be due for a nice performance. SS Francisco Lindor (.271 BA, 16 HR, 49 RBI) is also worth mentioning, as he is on fire coming into this one. Lindor is on a 10-game hitting streak entering this game, and he should be excited to face a struggling pitcher like Fister.

The Red Sox can really use a victory on Monday, but they’ll need Doug Fister to find his game fast. The righty has been absolutely miserable this season, but he does have history on his side. Fister has been a very solid starting pitcher throughout his entire career, and the Red Sox believe in the veteran to get himself going at some point. He is not that far removed from being a productive starter, but he needs to turn it around fast. Offensively, one guy that has not yet gotten it going for Boston is OF Hanley Ramirez (.256 BA, 17 HR, 40 RBI). He was, however, 2-for-4 last game and it’s possible that he will get hot soon. That would be big for Boston, as he is one of their most dangerous hitters and can really help them moving forward.

Monday's Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Tampa Bay vs. Houston

Odds: Tampa Bay (+144), Houston (-154); Total set at 9

Today is the non-waiver trade deadline day in MLB and by the time the first pitch is thrown when the evening games start, plenty of big names will likely be on a plane to a new home and a contending team. That makes handicapping a rather small MLB card a little tougher given no one really knows who's on the move yet, and what current odd prices will see significant changes should somebody of significance move.

That is especially the case with starting pitchers as we've already seen Oakland scratch Sonny Gray from his scheduled start prior to almost certainly being moved, and there might be a few more names added to that list tonight, most notably Marco Estrada of the Toronto Blue Jays. Bettors can always look to fade these teams based on the idea those pitchers won't start because of being traded, but making sure to select the “action” option is critical there so that it doesn't matter who starts, you get that price.

Honestly, I strongly considered an “action” play on the White Sox at +151 vs. Toronto for this piece, but reports out of Toronto suggest that Estrada may not be a lock to be moved anymore given his disastrous past six weeks or so.

Instead, my focus tonight shifted to two teams who have already established themselves as “buyers” this year, with Tampa Bay in Houston to open up a four-game set tonight.

Tampa Bay had a rough go of it in New York over the weekend as they dropped three of four to the Yankees. The Rays are now 2.5 games out of the final Wildcard spot in the AL, and 3.5 games back of New York for the AL East crown, knowing that this will be the first year in a few that they are actually going to be making a playoff push again.

It's been since the 2013 season since the Rays had a winning year and made the playoffs and for a guy like Evan Longoria who's been there through it all, it's got to feel good. But back-to-back four-game sets vs. New York and now Houston is far from ideal for any potential playoff contender, and the Rays are really going to have to step up their play real fast (they've got series' against Milwaukee, Boston, and Cleveland on tap after – all playoff contenders) if they want to avoid a brutal free fall in the standings in early August.

The Astros have been on cruise control since June started, but getting outscored 18-4 in the final two games in Detroit over the weekend can't sit well. The Astros are definitely going to be out shopping for starting pitching help today, and given they've allowed 4+ runs in nine of their last 10 games, that's an area of concern that has to be fixed come October. But it's still July at the moment and that means we can hopefully use those pitching struggles to our advantage as MLB bettors.

Houston has definitely struggled to keep their opponents off the scoresheet of late, but the same can be said for the Rays too. Tampa has allowed 4+ in eight of their last 10 games and with Houston's number being similar, a 4-4 game here gets us a 'push' at worst. In fact the 'over' is 6-0 the last six times these two teams have met, and Houston is on a 12-3-2 O/U run when opening up a new series.

Furthermore, the pitching matchup of Alex Cobb vs. Charlie Morton is not exactly stellar, even with both guys coming off quality starts in their last outing. Morton has seen nine of his past 11 starts (7-2-2 O/U) finish on or above the posted total, while Tampa is 11-2 O/U the last 13 times Cobb has started vs a winning team – including 9-0 O/U in that scenario and on the road.

Houston's top tier offense has to be disappointed with their effort of late as they scored just 10 total runs over their past four games. This is a team that averages 5.86 runs/game on the year, and to score 2.5/game over their last four – with the bulk of that coming in one game – is not how this team is built.

However, that was the end of an extended road trip for the Astros and fatigue can play a part there. They still went 5-4 SU on that road trip (7-2 O/U) which tells you just how explosive this team is when they are playing quality baseball.

Best Bet: Over 9