MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, July 3rd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Mets @ Nationals
Matz is 2-1, 2.67 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Strasburg is 2-0, 5.19 in his last three starts; Washington scored 21 runs in those games. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Nationals are 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7

New York won four of last five games; they’re 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Washington lost three of last four games, is 9-5 in home series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Pirates @ Phillies
Nova is 3-1, 3.24 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Pirates are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-1

Nola is 2-0, 1.88 in his last two starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three home starts. Phillies are 2-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-4

Pirates lost their last thee games, are 5-8 in road series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Phillies lost five of last six home games, are 2-10 in home series openers. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Marlins @ Cardinals
Locke is 0-4, 5.83 in six starts for Miami (over 3-3). Miami’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Wainwright is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts; over is 9-5 in his last 14 starts. St Louis is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-3

Marlins lost four of last five games, are 5-8 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. St Louis won four of last five games; they’re 7-8 in home series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.

Reds @ Rockies
Castillo is 0-0, 3.37 in two MLB starts (over 1-1); he struck out 14 guys in 10.2 IP. Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0

Hoffman is 1-1, 8.36 in three home starts (3-0, 1.67 on road). Over is 5-2 in his starts. Colorado is 2-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2

Reds are 2-14 in last 16 road games, 6-8 in road series openers. Over is 13-4 in their last 17 road tilts. Colorado lost nine of last ten games, is 9-3 in home series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.

American League

Blue Jays @ New York
Stroman is 1-2, 4.82 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Tanaka is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. New York is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2

Toronto lost eight of last ten games, is 7-6 in road series openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. New York is 4-7 in its last 11 games, 7-5 in home series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

Red Sox @ Rangers
Porcello is 1-3, 7.63 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Boston is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-13

Perez is 2-1, 6.89 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Texas is 5-5 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-2

Boston won its last four games, is 6-8 in road series openers. Over is 4-1 in their last five road games. Texas lost five of last seven games; they’re 7-6 in home series openers. Over is 14-2-1 in their last 17 home games.

Angels @ Twins
Meyer is 1-2, 2.53 in his last six starts (under 4-1-1). Angels are 1-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-1

Mejia is 2-0, 0.00 (10.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Twins are 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-3

Angels lost three of last four games; they’re 7-7 in road series openers. Angels’ last four road games stayed under. Minnesota lost six of last eight games; they’re 6-7 in home series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

White Sox @ A’s
Rodon allowed three runs in five IP (94 PT) in his first ’17 start. Chicago’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Cotton is 2-0, 2.38 in his last two starts but has been having blister issues; under is 3-1-2 in his last six starts. A’s are 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1

White Sox won three of last four games, are 4-9 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. A’s lost their last seven home games; they’re 6-7 in home series openers. Under is 7-2 in his last seven home games.

Royals @ Mariners
Kennedy is 2-0, 3.57 in his last three starts; Royals won his last four road outings. Over is 9-1 in his last ten starts. Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-9-2

Moore allowed three runs in seven IP (100 PT) in his only ’17 start. Seattle’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Royals are 15-6 in their last 21 games, 5-7 in road series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Seattle lost five of its last seven games, is 11-3 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Interleague

Orioles @ Brewers
Miley is 0-2, 7.20 in his last two starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Baltimore is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Suter allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (87 PT) in his only ’17 start; Brewers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Baltimore is 5-3 in last eight games, 4-9 in road series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee won three of last four games; they’re 7-7 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
NY-Wash: Matz 2-2; Strasburg 12-4
Pitt-Phil: Nova 9-7; Nola 5-6
Mia-StL: Locke 0-6; Wainwright 9-7
Cin-Colo: Castillo 1-1; Hoffman 5-2

American League
Tor-NY: Stroman 10-6; Tanaka 8-8
Bos-Tex: Porcello 7-10; Perez 6-9
LA-Min: Meyer 4-7; Mejia 5-6
Chi-A’s: Rodon 0-1; Cotton 5-8
KC-Sea: Kennedy 6-8 (4-0 last 4); Moore 1-0

Interleague
Blt-Mil: Miley 8-8; Suter 0-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Wash: Matz 0-4; Strasburg 3-16
Pitt-Phil: Nova 5-16; Nola 3-11
Mia-StL: Locke 3-6; Wainwright 4-16
Cin-Colo: Castillo 1-2; Hoffman 0-7

American League
Tor-NY: Stroman 3-16; Tanaka 8-16
Bos-Tex: Porcello 6-17; Perez 6-15
LA-Min: Meyer 5-11; Mejia 3-11
Chi-A’s: Rodon 1-1; Cotton 5-13
KC-Sea: Kennedy 3-14; Moore 0-1

Interleague
Blt-Mil: Miley 6-16; Suter 0-1

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 41-28 AL, favorites -$607
AL @ NL– 40-40, favorites -$1,010
Total: 81-68 AL, favorites -$1,617

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-30-2
AL @ NL: Over 43-32-2
Total: Over 85-62-4

Armadillosports.com

Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Red Sox (4-0 past four games, 6-1 past seven overall)

The Red Sox were extremely rude guests of the Blue Jays over the weekend, sweeping the home team by a combined 29-6. The Jays likely offered to drive the Red Sox to Pearson Int'l Airport personally for their trip to Texas, just to make sure they left town. Boston has opened up a three-game lead on the Yankees in the American League East thanks to a 6-1 run over the past seven outings. Their hot play will be put to the test, as Rick Porcello takes the hill. Last season he was the American League Cy Young Award winner. This season he was the first pitcher in the majors to lose 10 games. Perhaps he'll have a better fate against a Rangers team with problems of their own, losing seven of their past 10 at home vs. right-handed starting pitchers and 6-15 in their past 21 against AL East foes.

Coldest team: Rockies (1-10 past 11 games)

The Rockies have fallen seven games off the pace in the National League West thanks to a 1-11 stretch over their past 12 outings. Colorado's offense has dried up, as they're averaging just 2.9 runs per game over their past 10 contests. Perhaps the Rockies will be able to turn things around against a pitcher making just his second major league start since his recall from Double-A Pensacola (Fla.). The Reds are also 6-16 over their past 22 games, 5-21 over their past 26 road outings and 6-18 in their past 24 road games vs. RHP. Colorado rolls out Jeff Hoffman to quiet the Cincinnati bats. The Rockies are 5-2 over his past seven outings, 7-2 in their past nine at home and 19-8 in their past 27 in Game 1 of a new series.

Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (8-5, 3.08 ERA)

Nova hits the road for the City of Brotherly Love looking to keep the struggling Phillies down. It's a favorite matchup for the Bucs even though they have had their own issues lately. The Pirates are 2-5 over their past seven outings, 1-4 in their past five vs. RHP and 5-11 in their past 16 in the first game of a new series. However, the Phillies have won just 16 of their past 60 games overall, they're a dismal 1-5 in their past six home games and they're just 4-10 in Aaron Nola's past 14 assignments at 'The Vault'. The Bucs are an impressive 17-7 in the past 24 meetings with their Keystone State brethren, another good sign for Nova.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (4-10, 5.06 ERA)

Porcello has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in the matter of two-plus months. He was the AL Cy Young winner last season in Boston, but now he is the first pitcher to 10 losses. He has been extremely hittable this season, allowing 17 homers, 138 hits and 21 walks over 105 innings while the opposition is hitting .312 against him through 17 starts. In his 22-win campaign from a season ago, he posted a 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and the opponents were hitting just .230 against him, by far a career best. Porcello has basically reverted back to his 2012 form, as his numbers this season mirror that campaign with the Detroit Tigers almost exactly.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (5-1 past six overall)

The 'under' has been the play for the Bucs lately, going 5-1 over their past six games overall. They have the right pitcher on the hill, too, as the under has cashed in each of Nova's past four showings. In addition, the under is 6-2-1 in Pittsburgh's past nine against teams with a winning percentage under .400, 9-4 in their past 13 vs. RHP and a perfect 8-0 in their past eight games following a loss. The Phillies should cooperate, too, as the under is 5-1-1 in their past seven vs. RHP, 3-1-1 in their past five at home and 13-6-4 in their past 23 games overall.

Biggest OVER run: White Sox (4-1 past five overall)

The White Sox have been hitting the 'over' a lot lately, mostly due to some pitching woes and some decent offensive production. The over is 4-1 in their past five overall, 4-1 in their past five against sub-.500 squads and 8-3 in their past 11 on the road against teams with a losing overall record. They turn to Carlos Rodon, a former No. 1 pick, and he could keep the over train rolling. The over has cashed in each of his past eight starts against teams with a losing overall mark, five of his past seven starts overall and the over is 7-3-1 in his past 11 outings on the road. A meeting with the Athletics will put that over run to the test, as the under has hit in seven of the past eight meetings between these two clubs.

Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Royals

In the only game set for 10pm ET or later, the Mariners will host the Royals at Safeco Field in Seattle. Both teams are fairly interchangeable, as Kansas City is one game over .500, while Seattle checks in one game under. The Royals have been the hotter team lately, however, winning 15 of their past 21 games overall, including an impressive 8-3 over their past 11 games on the road. Ian Kennedy has also turned things around after a rocky start to the season, as Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 over his past four outings, and 4-0 over his past four on the road. The Mariners have won six straight on Mondays, and they're 4-0 in their past four against AL Central foes. However, Seattle has dropped four in a row at home, and five of their past seven overall.

Betcha didn’t know: The Twins are looking to turn things around at Target Field, as they're back from a long road trip with very mixed results. Things started out swimmingly with a three-game sweep in Cleveland, but they went 2-6 over their final eight excursions. If history repeats itself, they might get off to a sluggish start in Monday's game, too. Minnesota is a dismal 2-8 in their past 10 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. They have also won just four of their past 15 games at Target Field, actually posting a much better record on the road (25-15) than at home (16-25).

Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-175) vs. Nationals

Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+110) at Phillies

Biggest line move: Yankees (-110 to -130) vs. Blue Jays

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Boston Red Sox -114

The Red Sox and Rangers are going to be playing in Arlington Sunday night with Rick Porcello and Martin Perez starting for the Red Sox and Rangers respectively. Rick Porcello is not going to be winning the Cy Young this season, but the Red Sox also don’t need him to. And while the Rangers looked to be dead in the water early in the season, they are making a push towards relevance, and maybe even a wild card spot.

Martin Perez has been in the MLB with the Rangers for a few years now. It seems that his role with the team has been established as a back end starter who pitches to contact. He does not strike out batters at a high rate, but unfortunately he also walks batters at a slightly above average rate. The main reason that I’m interested in this game is his pitch to contact style does not bode well against a team like Boston whose lineup is built around making quality contact. The Red Sox don’t strikeout at a high rate, so I have some concerns for Perez’s ability. I’m also surprised by the line in this game, which makes me a bit concerned. But ultimately I’m not going to try to see the tricks that may exist in the line, it seems favorable to me, so I like the game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Los Angeles Angels +113

The Angels and the Twins are playing Monday night in Los Angeles. The Twins are going to be starting Adalberto Mejia against Alex Meyer for the Angels. Surprisingly the Angels have been playing better since the injury of the best player in the MLB in Mike Trout. I’m not convinced that it will last much longer, but it doesn’t need to, because Trout may be back and the end of July.

Adalberto Mejia is going to be starting for the Twins. While Mejia technically appeared in the MLB last season, this is in essence his first career MLB season, as he’s pitched 51 innings so far. Mejia has had a number of problems this season, but his ERA is still pretty good at 4.38. His peripherals are quite a bit worse though with an xFIP of 5.40. He’s had quite a bit of luck with the volume of players that he has left on base, with almost 80% of runners getting stranded on base. His biggest problem has been with walks as he’s been walking almost 5 batters per nine innings. This is extraordinarily high, especially considering how much he has pitched.

Alex Meyer is starting for the Angels. Much like Mejia, he has had a real problem with walking batters, even given his limited time in the majors. In 55 innings, Meyer has walked over 6 batters per nine innings. This is among the highest in the MLB, and while he has compensated those problems with a very high rate of strikeouts. Ultimately I don’t have a lot of interest in either pitcher, and the primary I like this game is because of value. The Angels are at home, and there are 2 subpar starters from two mediocre teams. In that situation, I tend to prefer the underdog. I don’t have any totals picks. I considered the under 12 between Colorado and Cincinnati, but it’s impossible to feel great about that in Coors Field.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Baltimore at Milwaukee (-105); Total: 9.5

The Orioles and Brewers play some interleague action at Miller Park on Monday afternoon. It’ll be Wade Miley for the Orioles and Brent Suter for the Brewers. Both of these gents are left-handed hurlers. The Brewers are 14th in wOBA at .320 and the Orioles are 17th in wOBA at .311, so there aren’t any big platoon edges to speak of with either side.

The Wade Miley Regression Tour makes its first stop at Miller Park in a few years. Miley used to pitch for the Diamondbacks, but has been with the Red Sox, Mariners, and Orioles over the last three years. He’s got a 4.54 ERA with a 4.97 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP. Remember when Miley had a 2.45 ERA with a 3.82 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP after his first seven starts. That took him through May 10. Since May 10, Miley ha a 5.98 ERA with a 5.68 FIP and a 4.80 xFIP in 10 starts. He’s got a 36/27 K/BB ratio, so the K% has gone down dramatically, but the BB% hasn’t followed suit. He has a .341 BABIP against and a 22 percent HR/FB%. Basically, Miley has been awful. He’s allowed four or more runs in each of his last five starts. The Brewers offense has been inconsistent and hasn’t had the success that it had against lefties early in the season, but Miley isn’t fooling anybody right now.

While Milwaukee looks like an attractive side, Brent Suter isn’t going to inspire a ton of confidence. Suter came up through the system mostly working as a starter, but he’s made 19 relief appearances and three starts as a Major Leaguer. Suter’s lone start came back on June 13 when he worked 4.2 innings. He last pitched June 27, so the Brewers have been trying to stretch him out in side sessions and bullpens. It’s hard to bet into a situation like that, when you know that over half of the outs will likely come from the bullpen.

Junior Guerra didn’t pitch well yesterday, so the long men for the Brewers threw 58, 34, and 35 pitches, respectively, so we’ll have to see who will follow Suter in the pitching plans. Unfortunately, to me, that also makes it tough to bet the total. Seeing a different pitcher every time through the lineup, and an unfamiliar one at that, will make it tricky for the Orioles.

I’ll be avoiding the day game.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-110); Total: 8.5

Money has come in against the Phillies lately when they’ve been +200 or higher, so it only makes sense that money would come in against the Phillies when the market makes them a rare favorite. Aaron Nola was a few cents higher on the overnights, but the market is taking the road team in the Battle of Pennsylvania. It’ll be Ivan Nova for the visitors.

Nova has a 3.08 ERA with a 3.82 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP. He’s still not missing a ton of bats, but his strikeout rate has gradually climbed over his last few outings. He’s still not walking anybody and has a good home run rate at 11.3 percent. Nova has only walked 13 batters in 108 innings of work. He certainly seems to be about as trustworthy as it gets outside of the aces in the new MLB run-scoring environment.

Aaron Nola looks pretty good. Nola has a 4.13 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 3.77 xFIP. He’s only made 11 starts because the LSU product hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but he’s found a nice groove over his last two outings with three runs allowed on nine hits across 14.1 innings with 17 K and six BB. Nola is probably the best starter the Phillies have by 35 or 40 cents, if not more. He’s certainly priced like it here, but he deserves to be. The stuff is pretty good.

I do understand the hesitance in laying numbers with the Phillies, especially against somebody like Nova. There probably isn’t a great edge to be had in this game, but if I had to do anything, I’m a believer in Nola.

Toronto at New York (-125); Total: 9

Last Thursday on The Bettor’s Box, I talked about the Toronto Blue Jays being a team to back before the Break. I previewed the series against Boston at the end and talked about how the pitching matchups did not favor the Blue Jays. Well, Toronto got swept and it was ugly, with a 15-1 beatdown on Sunday. Statistically, the Blue Jays are still a decent team to look to back because they have some positive regression coming in key offensive situations, but I don’t know where the team is mentally. That was a devastating series to give up three games to Boston and one to the Yankees.

Marcus Stroman is on the hill tonight, so the Blue Jays have the right guy on the mound to stop the bleeding. Stroman has a 3.41 ERA with a 3.96 FIP and a 3.45 xFIP. The only problem for Stroman this year has been a high number of home runs per fly ball. Nearly 61 percent of balls put in play have been on the ground, but 13 fly balls have left the park. Stroman has done a great job of stranding runners with an 80.3 percent LOB%. Yankee Stadium is obviously a tough park for anybody, but Stroman’s batted ball distribution should somewhat neutralize that.

Masahiro Tanaka’s full-season numbers still aren’t great, with a 5.56 ERA, a 5.12 FIP, and a 3.87 xFIP, but he’s starting to throw the ball a bit better. Tanaka has a 23.6 percent HR/FB%, so regression was definitely coming in terms of that metric. Over his last two starts, Tanaka has worked 14 innings of two-run ball with nine hits allowed and a 14/4 K/BB ratio. He struck out 10 in four innings on June 17, but gave up three home runs. He struck out eight before that. The stuff is getting better, but Tanaka’s home run rate is still concerning. The Blue Jays haven’t done much as an offense this season, though, and have had some injuries.

The Yankees lost on Sunday, but deserve a ton of credit for how they played in that series. A bullpen collapse on Saturday kept the Yankees from winning a series in Houston under suboptimal conditions. The bullpen was gassed and the position player depth was limited. A blowout loss on Sunday allowed the key members of the bullpen to catch another rest. Tyler Clippard wasn’t used at all in the series. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were each used once, though they struggled badly.

I really want to back the Blue Jays here and stay true to what I discussed, but things change. Sometimes the threat of regression isn’t enough to make it happen. On the other hand, could we see a letdown from the Yankees returning home after an emotionally draining series? I’m not sure.

Miami at St. Louis (-145); Total: 9.5

No big thoughts from me on this game, but we can reasonably assume the price will come down, so if you’re a believer in the Marlins, grab it before it moves any further. It’s already gone down a few cents.

Boston (-115) at Texas; Total: 11

I don’t get the line move for this matchup between Rick Porcello and Martin Perez. Porcello is a guy that we isolated before the season as a fade candidate and that has certainly come to fruition. Porcello has given up a ton of hard contact and has some pretty ugly numbers. But, the market generally fades Martin Perez, so line movement on him is surprising.

As bad as Porcello has been, I’m a bit surprised that we don’t see more interest in backing him. Porcello has a 5.06 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 4.26 xFIP. Normally an ERA/xFIP discrepancy like that will incite a little bit of action. Porcello also has a .367 BABIP against and a 66.8 percent LOB% with a declining ground ball rate. Generally, the higher the fly ball rate, the better the BABIP. It’s all about command. Porcello doesn’t have much right now and the market clearly isn’t in favor of him making a start in Arlington.

Still, there’s no way I can back Perez here. For starters, he’s coming off of the DL, which is a no go for me. Second, he has a 4.70 ERA with a 4.28 FIP and a 4.55 xFIP, so it’s not like he’s having a great season. The Rangers are swinging and missing a ton this season. If there’s one thing that Porcello has done pretty well, it is strike out opposing hitters. The Rangers bullpen is also a mess.

I’m not sure what the deal is with this line move, but I don’t agree with it. I’ll be rolling with the Red Sox today. Maybe there’s an expectation of regression or something coming off of the Toronto sweep, but I’m not seeing it.

Chicago at Oakland (-125); Total: 9

Here’s another line move I don’t really understand. The White Sox were shut down by Jharel Cotton just a couple weekends ago and the market has faded them against every right-handed pitcher with a pulse, but the White Sox have taken on a little bit of steam on the overnights. Carlos Rodon, who made some awful minor league rehab appearances and then struggled in his first start back in the bigs, will get the nod for the Pale Hose, who are making the long trip out west to Oakland.

As we’ve discussed, going out to Oakland isn’t real exciting for teams that only go there once a year. A trip out west prior to the All-Star Break isn’t exciting for anybody. Teams are looking ahead to that time off, especially a White Sox team that has not had a very good first half. Add in the Rodon thing and I just don’t get this line move. Rodon only gave up three unearned runs in his first start, but he walked six and only struck out two. The A’s lineup isn’t exactly the Yankees lineup, but still. It’s pretty clear that the control profile wasn’t there for Rodon.

I’ll say this – one silver lining about Rodon’s awful MiLB rehab starts is that he only allowed one home run in 17 innings. He’s given up 34 in 309.1 MLB innings. I do wonder if the market has him rated a little bit higher than I do in this spot given that he has the ability to keep the ball in the park and that’s largely how Oakland scores runs. That’s not to say Rodon has great command, since he’s got a .320 career BABIP against and it was .330 last season, but that may be a factor.

This could just be a fade of Jharel Cotton. Cotton has a 5.02 ERA with a 5.15 FIP and a 5.23 xFIP on the season. He made five really impressive starts last year and then couldn’t stick at the big league level this year. Cotton went down and made two starts in the minors to get right and get healthy and then got the call back. Since his recall on May 27, Cotton has a 4.28 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 5.51 xFIP. It isn’t a pretty profile by any means, but the way that the market has approached the White Sox this season, plus the situational spots of Rodon’s second start and a long trip west has me leaning Oakland in this situation.

Monday's Best Bet
By BetOnline.ag

Toronto vs. New York Yankees

Odds: Toronto (+108), New York (-118); Total set at 9

With Fourth of July preparations in their final hours across the country, it's the MLB team from up north that wished their countries holiday weekend went much better than it did. The Toronto Blue Jays were swept at home by Boston during Canada Day weekend, as the entire Blue Jays pitching staff got lit up from start to finish.

The Blue Jays bats didn't pull their weight either, but when you are outscored 29-6 over the course of a three-game series, there is plenty of blame to go around. Toronto is hoping that a brief trip down south to New York to start the week can help get them out of this current funk (2-8 SU last 10).

The Yankees haven't been playing up to their standards either with a 3-6 SU record over their last nine and not winning a single series in their last six tries. The huge string of losses this team has endured the past few weeks has put them three games behind the Boston Red Sox in the East and from the outside it appears as though the All-Star break can't come soon enough for the Bronx Bombers.

For many bettors this game may be one they prefer to stay away from given the struggles both sides are experiencing, but the early line move going Toronto's way can't be ignored. Often times when you've got two teams going through rough stretches (or conversely hot stretches), taking the plus-money odds with the underdog is a good place to start and that appears to be the case in this game tonight.

VegasInsider.com's betting percentage charts show about a 60/40 split in favor of the Yankees, but their price has dropped to it's current number after opening in the -135 range. A move like that may not seem like much, but it's significant all the same.

Toronto leaving town after a festive, but very disappointing weekend is likely what this team needs at the moment too. The Jays are in the midst of a critical three-to-four week stretch where they've got to either run off a bunch of wins or make that tough decision to punt on the 2017 campaign.

Injuries and poor play have plagued them all year, but they are actually quite healthy at the moment and just failing to produce. That's not something you want to hear when considering backing a team in any spot, but after dealing with all the national holiday celebrations/distractions themselves the last few days, they've got a solid understanding of potential distractions the Yankees are going to have to deal with over the next 48 hours.

Furthermore, Toronto sends their ace Marcus Stroman to the bump tonight and after a rough start two outings ago, Stroman was able to bounce back with a dominant performance in a 4-0 victory last time out. Toronto will need him to be at his best again tonight with Masahiro Tanaka on the other side of the bump, but Tanaka has been much more inconsistent this year for the Yankees, even with him appearing to turn the corner lately.

All of Tanaka's recent success has come against non-division opponents which does stand out a bit, because the more you see this guy as a hitter, the better understanding you have of how is stuff moves and the best ways to attack him. In Tanaka's last 10 starts, only three of come against AL East rivals and he never pitched more than 5.2 innings in any one of them.

The scorelines weren't pretty either as New York went 0-3 SU in 5-4, 10-4, and 9-5 defeats. Toronto's lineup is just as capable as anyone of putting up some crooked numbers on Tanaka if they are seeing the ball well and with Canada Day distractions having come and gone, bettors should expect a more focused approach at the plate from the Jays tonight.

Finally, we can't forget about the fact that Toronto is 8-2 SU in Stroman's last 10 starts overall and he's been a great losing streak stopper of late too. The Jays are 6-0 SU with Stroman on the hill after they scored two runs or less last time out, and with the Yankees a brutal 2-11 SU in their last 13 against a team with a losing record, taking the visiting Blue Jays here at the underdog price tag is definitely the way to go.

Best Bet: Toronto +108

Red-hot Red Sox face Rangers
By: StatFox.com

The Rangers will be hoping to inch closer to the .500 mark with a win over the Red Sox on Monday.

Boston is absolutely rolling heading into Monday’s game, as the Sox have won four straight and six of their past seven. Texas, meanwhile, is struggling coming into this one, as the team has lost five of its past six. The Rangers now find themselves two games under .500, which is not where they wanted to be at this point in the season. Fortunately for the Rangers, they do have an advantage on the mound in this one. That’s because the struggling RHP Rick Porcello (4-10, 5.06 ERA, 99 K) is going to be starting for Boston here, and he’ll be going up against Texas ace RHP Yu Darvish (6-6, 3.11 ERA, 115 K). Still, the game isn’t won on paper and it’s not like Porcello isn’t capable of turning in an excellent start. He’s having a poor season this year, but he is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. One trend that favors Boston in this game is the fact that the Rangers are a lousy 7-18 against the money line in home games after having lost five or six of their past seven games over the past three seasons. Texas is, however, 42-30 against the money line after four or more consecutive road games over the past two seasons.

The Red Sox will be hoping to build on their 15-1 victory from Sunday, and one guy that will be feeling great coming into this game is OF Mookie Betts (.286 BA, 15 HR, 51 RBI). Betts had one of the best games of his career on Sunday, going 4-for-6 with two homers and a ridiculous eight RBI. Betts now has five multi-hit games in the past seven contests. He is seeing the ball extremely well and is finally looking like the All-Star he was a year ago. The Sox will, however, need a lot more from Rick Porcello in this game. Porcello has been awful this season, as he has already lost 10 games after dropping just four all season a year ago. It is, however, worth noting that Porcello has allowed just seven earned runs in his past 12.1 innings of work. While that might not seem great, it is an improvement for the righty. He had allowed 17 earned runs total in his previous three starts, so perhaps he is starting to figure some things out.

The Rangers are really struggling right now, but they do have Yu Darvish heading to the mound on Monday. Texas is hoping that its ace can step up and deliver a victory in this one. In Darvish’s past two starts, the righty has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings of work. He struck out 16 batters in those games, and he walked just one. If his stuff is working like that on Monday then it’s very likely that the Rangers will find a way to win this game. Darvish will, however, need some help from his offense. One guy that could definitely provide that is 3B Adrian Beltre (.274 BA, 5 HR, 22 RBI). Beltre has played only 29 games this season, but he has looked pretty good thus far. It’s only a matter of time before he puts together a serious hot streak, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the best of Porcello here.