National League
Brewers @ Nationals
Guerra is 3-0, 3.00 in his last five starts; five of his last seven stayed under.
Scherzer is 4-1, 1.96 in his last six starts; six of his last eight went over. .
Brewers lost 11 of last 13 road games; they're 4-9 in road series openers. Over is 9-6-2 in their last 17 road games. Washington won seven of last eight games; they're 9-3 in home series openers. 10 of Nationals' last 15 home games went over.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Niese is 0-4, 10.13 in his last four starts; five of his last six starts stayed under. .
Martinez is 3-0, 1.06 in his last six starts, five of which stayed under. .
Pirates won their last four games; they're 9-6 in road series openers. Five of their last seven games went over. St Louis won its last three games, is 5-9 in home series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.
Reds @ Cubs
Reed is 0-2, 9.00 in three MLB starts, which all went over.
Hendricks is 2-0, 3.57 in his last three starts, which all went over.
Reds lost 10 of last 12 games, are 4-9 in road series openers. Over is 15-5 in their last 20 road games. Chicago lost its last four games; they're 10-2 in home series openers. Over is 8-1-1 in Cubs' last ten games.
Braves @ Phillies
De la Cruz allowed three runs in six IP (85 PT) in his first MLB start.
Eickhoff is 3-1, 2.43 in his last five starts; seven of his last eight stayed under.
Braves lost seven of last ten games, are 4-8 in road series openers. Last seven Atlanta road games stayed under. Philly won five of its last six games; they're 3-10 in home series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Philly home games.
Rockies @ Giants
Anderson is 0-2, 3.04 in four MLB starts, three of which stayed under.
Peavy is 3-1, 4.03 in his last four starts; five of his last seven starts stayed under.
Colorado lost seven of last nine road games, is 8-6 in road series openers. Under is 11-4 in rockies' last 15 road games. Giants won three of their last four games; they're 6-7 in home series openers. over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Marlins @ Mets
Koehler is 0-1, 9.00 in his last two starts; five of his last seven starts went over.
Harvey is 0-2, 2.83 in his last five starts; his last six starts stayed under.
Marlins lost five of last seven road games, are 8-5 in road series openers. Over is 14-2 in Marlins' last 16 road games. New York won its last six games, is 10-3 in home series openers. Under is 11-4-1 in their last sixteen games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Perdomo is 1-2, 7.61 in his five starts, four of which went over.
Bradley is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Padres are 8-5 in last 13 games, 8-4 in road series openers. Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. Arizona lost seven of last eight home games; they're 3-11 in home series openers. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Diamondback games.
American League
Angels @ Rays
Tropeano 2-0, 2.66 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Moore is 2-1, 2.36 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Angels lost 11 of last 13 games, are 6-7 in road series openers. Seven of their last ten games went over. Tampa Bay lost 16 of its last 18 games; they're 5-9 in home series openers. Six of Rays' last nine games went over the total.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Martinez is 0-0, 5.23 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
Porcello is 2-0, 3.71 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Rangers lost four of their last five games; they're 8-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas road games. Boston won three of its last four home games; they're 7-7 in home series openers. Four of last five Boston home games went over.
Mariners @ Astros
Miley is 0-2, 8.00 in his last two starts; over is 7-0-2 in his last nine.
McCullers is 3-1, 4.08 in his last six starts, last four of which stayed under.
Mariners won seven of last nine games, but lost six in row on road; they're 7-6 in road series openers. Five of last six Seattle road games stayed under. Houston won 13 of last 17 games; they're 8-5 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in Astros' last ten home tilts.
A's @ Twins
Graveman is 1-0, 3.57 in his last four starts; three of his last four road starts went over.
Nolasco is 0-2, 6.05 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over.
Oakland lost its last four games, is 8-5 in road series openers. Last seven Oakland road games went over. Minnesota won five of its last seven home games; they're 6-8 in home series openers. Over is 19-4 in Twins' lst 23 home games.
Bronx @ White Sox
Sabathia is 0-1, 9.53 in his last two starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Shields is 1-0, 3.09 in his last two starts; all five of his Chicago starts went over.
New York is 5-10 in its last 15 road games, 6-7 in road series openers. Five of last six Bronx road games went over total. White Sox are 9-4 in last 13 games, 7-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-3 in Chicago's last nine home series openers.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Volquez is 2-3, 7.31 in his last six starts (under 4-2).
Sanchez is 4-0, 2.95 in his last six starts (under 11-5).
Royals are 5-13 in last 18 road games, 4-9 in road series openers. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine KC road games. Toronto is 12-6 in last 18 home games, but lost last four home series openers- they're 3-10 in home series openers. Four of Blue Jays' last six home games stayed under the total.
Tigers @ Indians
Norris is 1-0, 4.50 in two starts this season (over 1-1).
Salazar is 6-0, 2.08 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
Tigers won their last six games, are 5-9 in road series openers. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total. Cleveland lost its last two games, after winning 14 in a row before that; Tribe is 8-4 in home series openers. Under is 6-2-1 in Cleveland's last nine home games.
Interleague
Gallardo is 2-0, 4.41 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Urias is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Orioles lost last four games, allowing 30 runs; they're 7-6 in road series openers. Five of last seven Baltimore games went over. Los Angeles won its last nine home games; they are 6-7 in home series openers. Last seven games at Dodger Stadium stayed under.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Mil-Wsh-- Guerra 9-2; Scherzer 10-7
Pitt-StL-- Niese 8-8 (0-4 last 4); Martinez 7-8
Cin-Chi-- Reed 0-3; Hendricks 8-7
Atl-Phil-- de la Cruz 0-1; Eickhoff 7-9
Col-SF-- Anderson 1-3; Peavy 8-8
Mia-NY-- Koehler 6-10; Harvey 5-11
SD-Az-- Perdomo 3-2; Bradley 5-4
LA-TB-- Tropeano 5-5; Moore 6-10
Tex-Bos-- Martinez 1-2; Porcello 3-10
Sea-Hst-- Miley 9-5; McCullers 5-3
A's-Min-- Graveman 6-9 (4-0 last 4); Nolasco 6-10
NY-Chi-- Sabathia 7-6; Shields 2-3/2-9
KC-Tor-- Volquez 10-7; Sanchez 10-6
Det-Clev-- Norris 2-0; Salazar 10-5 (6-0 last 6)
Blt-LA-- Gallardo 5-2; Urias 4-3
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Mil-Wsh-- Guerra 2-11; Scherzer 7-17
Pitt-StL-- Niese 3-16; Martinez 1-15
Cin-Chi-- Reed 3-3; Hendricks 4-15
Atl-Phil-- de la Cruz 0-1; Eickhoff 5-16
Col-SF-- Anderson 1-4; Peavy 4-16
Mia-NY-- Koehler 6-10; Harvey 3-16
SD-Az-- Perdomo 3-5; Bradley 3-9
LA-TB-- Tropeano 2-10; Moore 3-16
Tex-Bos-- Martinez 0-3; Porcello 7-13
Sea-Hst-- Miley 6-14; McCullers 3-8
A's-Min-- Graveman 4-15; Nolasco 7-16
NY-Chi-- Sabathia 1-13; Shields 8-16 (4 of last 5)
KC-Tor-- Volquez 4-17; Sanchez 3-16
Det-Clev-- Norris 0-2; Salazar 1-15
Blt-LA-- Gallardo 4-7; Urias 1-7
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Philles (6-2 past 8.)
The Philadelphia Phillies have been surprisingly effective lately, winning seven of their past 10 games overall. They host an Atlanta Braves squad with Jose De La Cruz making his second career start in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park. The Braves and Phillies have split six games 3-3 this season, with each team going 1-2 at home in the respective three-game sets. Philly had lost seven in a row at home until handing the Royals a 2-1 series loss in the recently completed series Sunday in interleague play.
Coldest team: Rockies (3-8 past 11)
With the lineup the Rockies roll out every night there is no reason this team should be ice cold, but they managed a total of two runs in their three-game sweep in Los Angeles over the weekend. Things go from bad to worse as they head to San Francisco to face a Giants team which has posted wins in three of the past four. San Francisco and Colorado have split their previous 10 games this season. The Rockies have dropped five straight games, and for those who enjoy betting totals the 'under' is 4-0 in Colorado's past four outings.
Hottest pitcher: Danny Salazar, Indians (10-3, 2.22 ERA)
Salazar has been phenomenal this season, going 10-3 with a 2.2 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts overall. He has recorded 107 strikeouts over 93 1/3 innings while keeping the opposition down with a .185 opponent batting average. Salazar has quality starts in five of the past six while winning each of his past six outings. The Indians are also 6-1 in their past seven against left-handed starting pitching, and 6-1 in the past seven against the Tigers at home. Cleveland has dominated Detroit lately, winning 14 of the past 16 meetings overall.
Coldest pitcher: Jonathon Niese, Pittsburgh (6-6, 5.07 ERA)
Niese started the season off fine, but he has since fallen on hard times. The southpaw has allowed four or more runs in each of his past four starts, all losses. He looks to get better against the Cardinals Monday. He is 0-1 wth a 10.45 ERA in two starts against St. Louis this season, giving up 13 runs - 12 earned - over 10 1/3 innings with a .356 opponent batting average. Until the veteran left-handed finds a way to contain the St. Louis Cardinals, avoid taking the Bucs with Niese on the bump.
Biggest UNDER run: Astros (5-2 past 7)
The 'under' has cashed in five of the past seven for Houston, and their pitching has been a large part of that success. Houston has allowed 3.0 runs per game during the past six outings, and while the 'under' has hit in five of the past seven overall. Look for the 'under' to continue for the Astros. Houston faces a Seattle team which has seen the under hit in five of their past six road, including 4-0 in their past four road outings against teams with a winning overall record. The under is also 5-0 in Lance McCullers' past five home starts, and 4-1 in his past six home outings against a team with a winning overall record.
Biggest OVER run: Athletics (9-1-1 past 11)
The offense has been flowing for the Oakland Athletics lately, and the 'over' has been a frequent result. The over is 9-1-1 in Oakland's past 11 games overall, and 5-1-1 in their past seven agianst right-handed starting pitching. While the under is 10-4-1 in Kendall Graveman's past 15 against a team with a losing overall record, the 'over' is 4-1 in Graveman's past five outings on the road.
Matchup to watch: Mets vs. Marlins
The Miami Marlins have managed to win just two of their past seven road outings, and they're 0-4 in their past four on the road against temas with a winning home record. The Marlins are also 1-4 in Tommy Koehler's past five road outings against a team with a winning record, while the Mets are 6-0 in their past six home games and 22-4 in their past 26 games played on a Monday, for whatever it's worth.
Betcha didn’t know: The Padres head to the desert looking to vanquish the Diamondbacks. San Diego is just 2-11 in their past 13 road games against a right-handed starter, while going 8-22 in their past 30 vs. RHP. Arizona has dropped seven of eight games in a row. Arizona turns to Archie Bradley to stem the tide. The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their past eight at home, and seven of the past eight overall.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-260) vs. Nationals
Biggest public underdog: Orioles (+145) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Nationals (-225 to -240) vs. Brewers
Toronto vs Kansas City Series Preview
Sportspic.com
Toronto and Kansas City square off in a three game series at Rogers Center north of the border. This will be the first meeting of the season between these clubs since since Jays fell short in the American League Championship Series last October. With that October setback, got to think Jays are going to show up and give it their best. Looking at probables for the series and the fact Royals are a brutal 13-25 on the road a series sweep for Jays is not out of the question.
Aaron Sanchez gets the nod for the Blue Jays in the opener. Sanchez off a fantastic outing tossing eight innings of one run ball has won his last seven decisions and will carry an 8-1 record, 3.08 ERA to the hill. Sanchez trades pitches with Edinson Volquez (7-7, 4.80 ERA) who is also off a strong 6 2/3 inning start of shutout ball. Jays ridding a 4-0, 6-2 home streak with Sanchez have the edge over Royals who are 3-4 in an opposing park with Volquez and have lost his last two starts in Toronto.
The second pitching matchup features knuckelballer Dickey vs Chris Young. Toronto handing the ball to Dickey does serve as an alarm, since the Blue Jays are 0-8 in Dickey's home starts this season, 1-10 his last eleven in front of the home audience. Then again, Young hasn't been a peg to hang your hopes on in road games going 0-5 over six starts with Royals 1-5 over those games. Young tagged for a long-ball in twelve of his fourteen starts, 22 total for the campaign Jays should give their fans something to cheer about while providing hard-luck Dickey a rare team win at home.
In the finale, Marcus Stroman gets the call for Toronto after spinning one of his finest outings of the season last time out pitching 6 2/3 innings allowing one run on five hits while striking out six. His counter part, Ian Kennedy is off his seventh loss of the season and of those seven six have been on the road. Look for Jays to make it 3-0 vs Royals with Stroman.
MLB betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.COM
Tigers Roaring Back
Once again, we start this column with the Cleveland Indians. But this time, it’s not all about them. The Detroit Tigers have now won six in a row and are just 5.5 games back of the Tribe in the American League Central. Problem is that the Motor City contingent is 0-9 vs. the Indians this season! The two division rivals meet again this week, in Cleveland. Their win streak finally halted at 14 games, the Tribe were humiliated Sunday, losing 17-1 to the Blue Jays (second straight loss). They do have the luxury of sending out Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco in the first two games of this series. But is Detroit really going to lose every game to them this season? Probably not.
Nothing Brewin’
One team you’ll probably want to stay away from this week is Milwaukee. The underdog prices might be tempting at Washington, and they did beat the Nationals two of three at home last week, but beware that this team is 0-10 this season as a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. They figure to be in that price range in every game this series, certainly on Monday vs. Max Scherzer, even though their own starter (Junior Guerra) has a 0.787 WHIP his last three starts. The Brew Crew just got swept in St. Louis over the weekend, so they’re not exactly in good form. This is the second straight bad team from the NL Central that the Nats welcome in. They just took three of four from the Reds, including a 12-1 win Sunday.
Lone Rangers
Texas has been the #1 money-earning team this season and it’s not even close. They are up 27.6 units and the #2 earner (San Francisco) is at +14.9. The oddsmakers figure to have them as underdogs against Boston this week and while that sounds tempting, I’m not entirely sold on the Rangers. While it may be true that they currently own the biggest division lead in all of baseball (yes, even bigger than the Cubs!), Texas has dropped two in a row (to Minnesota) and I’d be concerned that an 18-7 record in one-run games is due to regress. Their run differential is actually bested by four other AL teams, the Red Sox being one of them. There won’t be any Cole Hamels (lost Sunday) in this next series either.
Hitting Notes
Mike Trout has been hitting really well of late, going 13 of 24 at the plate over the past week with nine runs scored and two home runs. Interestingly, he’s batted only three runners in.
I was interested to find out what player had the best batting average in road games this season (had to have at least 130 AB’s). The answer, following a 3 for 5 night at the plate on Sunday, is the Marlins’ Martin Prado. He is now at .408 outside of Miami.
Pitching Notes
Colorado’s Tyler Chatwood is set to return from the disabled list and looks to likely start Tuesday in San Francisco. Chatwood has been the Rockies best pitcher this season – clearly – and he’s probably loving the fact his first start back will be on the road. That’s because he’s yet to lose outside of Coors Field this year (5-0) thanks to a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP.
Prior to wins by Johnny Cueto and Stephen Strasburg over the weekend, Baltimore’s Chris Tillman had been the most profitable starter to bet on in 2016 MLB. But, like the team, I’m not a real believer here. Tillman has a 3.71 ERA and 1.248 WHIP, not bad numbers per se, but certainly not indicative of someone that has a 14-3 team start record. Consider fading him Tuesday at Dodger Stadium.
Totals Trend
The Over is 8-0-2 in Cubs-Reds games this season. Those two teams begin a three-game series Monday at Wrigley Field.
Monday's Weather Report
Nearly a 100 percent chance of rain in D.C. today for the early Independence Day matchup between the Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers. There is a chance of a thunder shower later in the afternoon and will be a 5-10 mph wind blowing out to left field. The total today is set at 7.0.
There is a chance of thunderstorms and a 50 percent chance of rain this afternoon in St. Louis where the Cards will host the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates. This game will also feature a 5-10 mph wind blowing out to right field. The total is set at 8.5.
There is a 60 percent chance of rain this afternoon in Philadelphia for the game between the Phillies and the Atlants Braves. There may be a rogue thunderstorm late in the afternoon and a 10-15 mph wind blowing straight out to center field is in the forecast. The total is set at 8.5.
Expect a nice hitter's wind in Queens this afternoon for the game between the Mets and the Miami Marlins. The forecast is calling for a 15 mph wind blowing directly out to center at Citi Field. The total is currently set at 7.5.