MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, June 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Nationals
Foltynewicz is 4-1, 2.41 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Braves are 1-5 in his road starts. Atlanta’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-2
Strasburg is 4-1, 2.41 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 4-1 in his home starts. Nationals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6 (led last five).
Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring 1-1-1 runs- they’re 6-2 in last eight road series openers. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Washington lost its last three games; they’re 8-3 in home series openers. Under is 8-0 in their last eight home games.
Rockies @ Pirates
Freeland is 4-1, 3.90 in his last five starts (under 9-3). Colorado is 6-0 in his road starts, has an 8-3-1 1st 5-inning record with him.
Taillon is pitching for first time in five weeks after treatment for testicular cancer; he is 2-1, 3.57 in six starts this year- his last three went over. 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2-2.
Colorado won seven of last eight games; they’re 6-5 in road series openers. Over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Pirates are 4-7 in last 11 games, but won last two. Seven of their last ten games went over. Bucs are 4-6 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Mets
Lackey is 0-3, 6.65 in his last four starts (over 8-4). Cubs are 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-9-1
deGrom is 0-2, 16.88 in his last two starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Mets are 2-3 in his home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Chicago lost four of last five overall; they lost eight in a row on the road, are 3-6 in road series openers. Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Mets won four of last five games, are 5-1 in last six home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Reds @ Padres
Arroyo is 0-2, 6.84 in his last five starts (over 8-4). Reds are 2-3 in his road starts, their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-9.
Perdomo is 0-3, 7.65 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his home starts. San Diego split his six home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4-3
Reds lost their last six road games; they’re 5-5 in road series openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games. San Diego lost seven of last eight games; they’re 8-3 in home series openers. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games.
American League
Rangers @ Astros
Darvish is 0-2, 4.42 in his last three starts; his last seven starts stayed under. Texas split his six road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-4 (0-3 last 3).
Musgrove is 3-1, 4.15 in his last four starts; Astros are 2-5 in his home starts (under 4-2-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-7
Rangers won their last four road games; their last five road tilts stayed under. Rangers are 4-6 in road openers. Houston lost four of last six games; they’re 7-3 in home series openers. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
Mariners @ Twins
Gallardo is 0-3, 10.89 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Seattle is 2-3 in his road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-7-2
Mejia is 0-0, 3.18 in his last three starts (under 4-2-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1-3
Seattle won six of last eight games, is 3-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games. Minnesota lost its last four home games (over 3-0-1), is 5-5 in home series openers.
Orioles @ White Sox
Miley is 1-2, 4.98 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Orioles are 4-2 in his road outings. 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Pelfrey is 2-1, 2.53 in his last four starts; White Sox are 1-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2
Orioles lost their last nine road games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Baltimore is 3-7 in road series openers. White Sox are 2-9 in last 11 games, 3-5 in home series openers. Over is 9-4-2 in their last 15 home games.
New York @ LA Angels
Tanaka is 0-5, 10.72 in his last five starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. New York is 2-4 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Meyer is 1-2, 2.82 in his last four starts (under 3-1) 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4
New York won its last five games, scoring 55 runs- their last four games went over. Bronx is 5-2 in last seven road series openers. Angels won four of last six games, are 2-5 in last seven home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.
Interleague
Phillies @ Red Sox
Eickhoff is 0-4, 6.84 in his last five starts; Philly is 0-6 in his road outings. Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Porcello is 0-3, 5.21 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Boston is 1-5 in his last six home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-10
Phillies lost their last five games, are 5-6 in road series openers. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Boston won seven of last nine games, is 7-4 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Col-Pitt: Freeland 8-4; Taillon 2-4
Chi-NY: Lackey 6-6; deGrom 6-6
Cin-SD: Arroyo 7-5; Perdomo 3-7
American League
Tex-Hst: Darvish 7-6; Musgrove 5-5
Sea-Min: Gallardo 4-8; Mejia 3-4
Balt-Chi: Miley 7-5; Pelfrey 3-6
NY-LA: Tanaka 5-7; Meyer 2-5
Interleague
Phil-Bos: Eickhoff 2-10; Porcello 5-8
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Atl-Wsh: Foltynewicz 1-11; Strasburg 1-12
Col-Pitt: Freeland 2-12; Taillon 1-6
Chi-NY: Lackey 8-12; deGrom 5-12
Cin-SD: Arroyo 5-12; Perdomo 4-10
American League
Tex-Hst: Darvish 2-13; Musgrove 2-10
Sea-Min: Gallardo 5-12; Mejia 2-7
Balt-Chi: Miley 4-11; Pelfrey 2-7
NY-LA: Tanaka 6-12; Meyer 4-7
Interleague
Phil-Bos: Eickhoff 4-12; Porcello 3-13
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 33-16 AL, favorites -$49
AL @ NL– 35-31 AL, favorites -$396
Total: 66-46 AL, favorites -$445
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 29-24-1
AL @ NL: Over 37-25-1
Total: Over 66-49-2
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rockies (7-1 past eight games)
The Rockies were unable to cap off a four-game road series sweep against the defending champion Cubs on Sunday, but they did put up a good fight in the 7-5 setback against Jake Arrieta. The loss snapped a seven-game win streak, including five in a row against both of the team's that played in last season's World Series. The Rockies hand left-hander Kyle Freeland the ball as they continue their road trip in Pittsburgh on Monday. Road has been a good place for Freeland and the Rockies, as they're 6-0 over his past six outings away from home. The Rockies are also 4-0 in his past four starts to kick off a new series while going 8-2 over his past 10 outings overall.
Coldest team Orioles (0-4 past four games, 2-6 past eight overall)
The Orioles have to be glad they're out of the Bronx, as they were absolutely tattooed by the first-place Yankees over the weekend. Baltimore was outscored 38-8 during the three-game sweep, much to the dismay of their fans. 'Over' bettors enjoyed it, however, but that's another story. Perhaps a trip to Chicago is just what the doctor ordered for Baltimore, as they swept the White Sox in the most recent series between the teams back on May 5-7. It was Baltimore doing the outscoring then, besting the White Sox 4-2, 6-5 and 4-0. The landscape is a lot different for the O's these days, however, and they're just 3-13 in their past 16 road games against a right-handed starter while going a dismal 7-19 in their past 26 road games overall.
Hottest pitcher: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (7-2, 2.80 ERA)
Strasburg looks to keep the Nationals rolling along. He was a hard-luck loser last time out, allowing two runs - one earned - and just three hits over six innings in a loss at L.A. Dodgers on Wednesday in a showdown with Clayton Kershaw. Despite the loss he has five consecutive quality starts, going 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA while striking out 41 batters over 27 2/3 innings across his past four showings. The Braves had proven to offer little resistance to Strasburg, as he is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over two outings with three walks and 21 strikeouts across 14 2/3 innings this season. Atlanta is hitting just .204 against him this season. In fact, Atlanta is just 3-23 in their past 26 trips overall to D.C., and the Braves are a dismal 1-8 in their past nine tries when Strasburg is on the hill.
Coldest pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (5-6, 6.55 ERA)
Boston Red Sox television commentator Jerry Remy drew plenty of fire on his comments that Tanaka shouldn't be allowed to have his translator come to the mound. The way Tanaka has been pitching, he probably doesn't want to understand all of the comments and jeers from the Yankees faithful. Tanaka has lost five straight starts, posting a dismal 10.72 ERA during the losing streak. On Monday he'll take his show on the road, and he has been even worse there. He is 2-3 with a 7.24 ERA over six outings on the road this season with a .328 opponent batting average. He has also walked 12 and struck out just 25 across 32 1/3 innings away from home.
Biggest UNDER run: Mets (5-0 past five games, 8-4-1 past 13 overall)
The 'under' has cashed in five consecutive for the Mets. They allowed just one run in each of their three games at SunTrust Park in Atlanta to help 'under' bettors cash tickets. That streak will be put to the test with Jacob deGrom on the hill, as the 'over' is 6-1-1 over his past eight outings. The under is 3-1-1 over his past five home outings, however, while the under is 5-0 in his past five against teams with a losing overall mark. The Cubs have been cooperating for under bettors lately, cashing in six of the past seven road games while going 12-2 in their past 14 against a right-handed starter. The under is also 12-4 in Chicago's past 16 games overall.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (6-0 past six games, 8-1 past nine overall)
The 'over' has been connecting on a frequent basis for San Diego lately, hitting in each of their three games against Kansas City over the weekend, and the previous three in Arizona. The over run is mostly due to their awful pitching, allowing an average of 8.5 runs per game over the past eight outings, including four games with 10 or more runs allowed. The over is also 5-2 over Luis Perdomo's past seven home outings while cashing in four of their past five games at Petco Park overall.
Matchup to watch: Angels vs. Yankees
The Angels welcome the red-hot Yankees to town. New York is looking to maintain its grip on first place in the ultra-competitive American League East while the Halos are simply trying to win to get back to .500. New York has won five in a row while going 4-0 over their past four games against a right-handed starter. While the Yankees are 21-5 over Tanaka's past 26 starts against a team with a losing record, they're 8-0 in his past eight road outings against a team with a losing overall record. New York has dropped each of his past five outings, however, and rest hasn't done him very good. The Yankees are 0-4 over his past four starts with five days of rest. The Angels are just 2-5 in Alex Meyer's past seven starts, but they're 5-0 in his past five with four days of rest.
Betcha didn’t know: As mentioned above, the Orioles were punished over the weekend in New York and it seems like they've had an extended losing streak. However, they're still one game over .500. They were missing Manny Machado over the weekend after he was spiked on the hand inadvertently by Andrew McCutchen on a slide into third base last week. He is hopeful of playing in Monday's series opener in Chicago, and that's good news for the O's flagging offense. The O's will face a tough task of trying to take down Mike Pelfrey, as he has a 1.69 ERA over his psat four outings while limiting the opposition to a .225 batting average.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-245) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+140) at Pirates
Biggest line move: Pirates (-120 to -140) vs. Rockies
Monday MLB Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
New York Yankees vs. L.A Angels
Sportsbook.ag Odds: New York (-140), L.A (+130); Total set at 8.5
The New York Yankees absolutely mashed the cover off the ball over the weekend as they beat the Baltimore Orioles by scores of 8-2, 16-3, and 14-3.
The exit velocity and distance of phenom Aaron Judge's HR's during the series made many headlines, but the entire lineup took advantage of sub-par Baltimore pitching in hot and humid conditions to earn those three blowout victories.
The Yankees hit the road to California after the game to start series' with the Angels and A's this week, so will their offensive continue to mash the ball in non-hitter friendly venues?
This weekend's offensive barrage by the Yankees was impressive to say the least, as it's now been five straight contests that New York has scored 8 or more runs.
Not only has the Yankees offense been tearing the cover off the ball, but their pitching has been solid for the most part as well as no opponent during that five-game stretch has scored more than three runs vs. New York.
Those two runs make for an interesting dynamic in tonight's game, but sometimes it's as simple as a change of scenery that's needed to cool an offense down.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers already show that the majority of bettors aren't soon forgetting about New York's offensive barrage this weekend.
90% of the money on tonight's total has come on the high side of the number, and I'm sure having a struggling Masahiro Tanaka on the hill looks welcoming to them as well. Tanaka has a 6.5) ERA over his last three starts and 9 of his 12 starts this year have cashed 'over' tickets.
However, even with all that money on the 'over' and seemingly good scenarios setting up for a high-scoring game, sportsbooks have dropped this total to 8.5 after opening up at 9. A move like that is always significant, but given the parameters coming into tonight, that move simply can't be ignored.
Tanaka is more than capable of turning things around in a heartbeat, and while the Angels offense did plenty of damage themselves this weekend, they didn't hit well vs. Tanaka last year in two starts (Yankees won both games by scores of 7-0 and 5-2). Oh, and Mike Trout is still on the DL.
Finally, we can't ignore the fact that the totals in Angels/Yankees games are on a 1-8-2 O/U run regardless of venue, but with that cool West Coast air likely making it tougher for Judge and company to leave the yard, I've got no problem siding with the reverse line move here and being on the side of the books.
New York is just 1-2 O/U this year in road games against non-AL East American League opponents, and their last 14 games against AL West foes at any stadium have produced a 4-10 O/U mark.
The key do being successful at MLB betting is to not get caught up and overreact to recent results and to stay ahead of the curve. Backing the 'under' tonight in this game fits that profile as runs will be a lot harder to come by for both teams than they've experienced in recent days.
Best Bet: Under 8.5