National League
Dodgers @ Pirates
Kazmir is 2-0, 3.38 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
Liriano is 0-4, 8.31 in his last four starts; three of his last four home starts went over.
Pirates won their last three games; over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 home games. Dodgers lost their last three games; under is 18-7-1 in Dodgers' last 26 games.
Mets @ Nationals
Syndergaard is 3-0, 3.29 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five.
Ross is 3-0, 3.6 2 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
Mets are 5-7 in last 12 road games, 7-5 in road series openers. Under is 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Washington lost seven of last eight games; they're 7-3 in home series openers. Seven of Nationals' last nine home games went over.
Cubs @ Reds
Arrieta is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts; over is 12-3 in his starts.
Straily is 2-3, 5.06 in his last six starts; six of his last eight starts went over.
Cubs lost six of last seven games, are 7-5 in road series openers. Under is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Cincinnati lost six of last eight games, is 6-7 in home series openers. Six of Reds' last eight home games stayed under.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Velasquez was 0-1, 8.10 in his last four starts before the DL; all four starts went over.
Ray is 2-2, 4.30 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine.
Phillies lost 14 of last 17 games; they're 4-9 in road series openers. Over is 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Arizona is 4-7 in its last 11 home games, 3-9 in home series openers. Last four Diamondback games went over.
American League
Rangers @ Bronx
CGonzalez is making first '16 start; he is 4-6, 3.90 in 14 MLB games (10 starts), 3-6, 5.04 in 14 AAA starts this season.
Nova is 0-2, 11.00 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his home starts. .
Rangers won 10 of last 12 games; they're 6-5 in road series openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. New York won three of last four games, they're 7-5 in home series openers. Six of their last eight hme games stayed under.
Red Sox @ Rays
Rodriguez is 0-2, 7.64 in his last four starts (under 3-2).
Snell is 0-2, 5.40 in his three starts (under 2-1).
Red Sox lost five of last seven games; they're 8-4 in road series openers. Four of last five Boston road games went over total. Tampa Bay lost its last 11 games; they're 4-8 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in last ten games at the Trop.
Astros @ Angels
McHugh is 0-0, 1.98 in his last two starts; five of his last seven stayed under.
Shoemaker is 0-3, 2.75 in his last five starts, which all stayed under; Angels scored 10 runs total in those five games.
Houston won nine of last 11 games; they're 5-8 in road series openers. Under is 13-4 in Astros' last 17 games. Angels are 6-14 in their last 20 games; nine of their last ten home games went over. Halos are 5-8 in home series openers.
Interleague
Indians @ Braves
Bauer is 2-0, 1.71 in his last four starts, which all stayed under.
Gant is 1-2, 3.24 in three MLB starts (under 2-1).
Indians won their last nine games, they're 7-6 in road series openers. Three of last four Cleveland road games went over. Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 games, 5-8 in home series openers. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games.
Cardinals @ Royals
Wainwright is 1-0, 2.29 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under.
Duffy is 2-1, 3.54 in his last five starts (under 4-3-1).
Cardinals are 9-2 in last 11 road games, 5-7 in road series openers. Over is 11-7 in their last 18 road games. Kansas City lost four of last five games, is 10-2 in home series openers. Six of Royals' last eight home games went over.
Blue Jays @ Rockies
Estrada is 4-1, 2.81 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Gray is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Blue Jays lost five of last seven games, are 9-4 in road series openers. Four of their last five games stayed under. Colorado won six of last eight home games, is 5-7 in first game of a home series. Five of last six games at Coors Field went over.
A's @ Giants
Mengden is 0-3, 3.50 in his three starts, which all stayed under. Oakland scored total of four runs in those three games.
Samardzija is 1-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.
A's won three of last four games, are 7-5 in road series openers- their last four games all went over the total. San Francisco won 13 of last 16 home games- they're 6-6 in home series openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their home openers.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
LA-Pitt-- Kazmir 7-8; Liriano 6-8 (1-7 last 8)
NY-Wsh-- Syndergaard 10-4; Ross 9-5
Chi-Cin-- Arreita 12-3 (2-3 last 5); Straily 6-7
Phil-Az-- Velasquez 7-5; Ray 5-10
Tex-NY-- CGonzalez 0-0; Nova 4-5
Bos-TB-- Rodriguez 2-3; Snell 0-3
Hst-LA-- McHugh 9-6; Shoemaker 4-10
Cle-Atl-- Bauer 6-5; Gant 1-2
StL-KC-- Wainwright 10-5; Duffy 5-3
Tor-Col-- Estrada 8-6; Gray 5-7
A's-SF-- Mendgen 0-3; Samardzija 10-5
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
LA-Pitt-- Kazmir 8-15; Liriano 4-14
NY-Wsh-- Syndergaard 3-14; Ross 4-14
Chi-Cin-- Arreita 1-15; Straily 2-13
Phil-Az-- Velasquez 3-11; Ray 3-15
Tex-NY-- CGonzalez 0-0; Nova 2-9
Bos-TB-- Rodriguez 2-5; Snell 2-3
Hst-LA-- McHugh 8-15; Shoemaker 3-14
Cle-Atl-- Bauer 3-11; Gant 2-3
StL-KC-- Wainwright 5-15; Duffy 0-8
Tor-Col-- Estrada 3-14; Gray 4-12
A's-SF-- Mendgen 0-3; Samardzija 3-15
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds (29-47) are a complete mess with a losing record in just about every way imaginable. The club is 18-22 at Great American Ball Park, 11-25 in an opposing park, 15-35 under the light's, 10-15 opening a series, 11-17 after a win, 10-18 vs the division, 8-19 as home dogs. Doubt you want to take flyer on Cincinnati when they host Cubbies and Jake Arrieta. Reds carry into the contest a 1-9 skid vs their division rival, the Cubs have a 9-0 streak as road chalk opening a series w/Arrieta and 8-0 streak as road chalk vs a division opponent with their ace hurler.
Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies
Colorado and Toronto open a three-game interleague series at Coors Field Monday night with Rockies counting on Jon Gray and Blue Jays countering with Marco Estrada. Colorado’s thin air and its famously hitter-friendly ballpark, oddsmakers have noted the possibility of a high-scoring affair setting the total at 12.0 to 12.5 runs.
Might be a tad high, Toronto's Marco Estrada has shown that he can keep the score low. In his sixteen starts this season, the game has gone 'Under' 13 times with 3 'Over'. He also knows how to keep the Jays in a game after a loss, with 11 'Under' and 1 'Over' in twelve starts following a Blue Jay loss. The Blue Jays have also shown a habit of playing 'Under' in an opposing park. In 41 games the result has been 26 'Under', 13 'Over' and 2 'Push'. Well to note, Colorado is 3-0-1 'Under' starting a new series with Gray, 6-2 'Under' vs. a team with a winning record.
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Indians (9-0 past 9)
Cleveland looks for its 10th consecutive victory in an interleague series opener at Atlanta Monday. Trevor Bauer is on the bump for the Indians, and he hasn't suffered a loss in six starts dating back to May 21. Bauer has been solid overall with a 3.20 ERA this season in 17 appearances (11 starts), and he is even better on the road with a 2.84 ERA in eight outings (five starts). The Indians are 5-0 in their past five game against a right-handed starter, and they're also 4-1 in Bauer's past five outings. On the flip side, the Braves have won just two of their past 11 interleague games against a team with a winning record.
Coldest team: Rays (0-11 past 11)
The Tampa Bay Rays have been struggling tremendously, losers of 11 straight, including four in a row at home and five consecutive setbacks within the division. Perhaps they can get well against the Boston Red Sox, as they pay a visit to St. Petersburg. The Red Sox have won just once in their past six trips to Tropicana Field. Last time out it was Blake Snell spinning a quality start by allowing three runs - two earned - with seven hits over 6 2/3 innings in Cleveland last Tuesday. Tampa won two of three from Boston at Fenway Park in the first meeting between these rivals April 19-21.
Hottest pitcher: Marco Estrada, Blue Jays (5-3, 2.70 ERA)
Estrada and the Jays head to Coors Field to open up an interleague series in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. Estrada has the temperament to withstand the power bats of the Rockies and the rarified air in Denver. Over the past month Estrada has a 3-1 record with a 2.60 ERA in five starts, holding the opposition to a .128 batting average over 34 2/3 innings with a sparkling 0.84 WHIP. The Rockies strike out 7.96 times per game, and Estrada has whiffed 26 batters over the past 26 2/3 innings in four June starts.
Coldest pitcher: Francisco Liriano, Pirates (4-7, 5.17 ERA)
The Bucs have been hovering around the .500 mark, and they would likely be well above if Liriano was hitting his averages. Liriano has lost four straight decisions, and he has won just one of his past eight starts dating back to May 6. The Pirates have lost five straight starts with Liriano on the bull, and the Pirates have won just five of their past 18 games overall. They're also 0-5 in Liriano's past five outings against teams with a winning overall record.
Biggest UNDER run: Braves (8-1 past nine)
The Braves open up an interleague series against the red-hot Indians Monday night at Turner Field. The under has cashed in eight of the past nine games for the Braves. The under has also cashed in four straight interleague games while going 6-0 in their past six against right-handed starting pitching. The under is also 4-0 in the past four outings by Indians SP Trevor Bauer, the opposing pitcher. In the past six meetings in Atlanta between these interleague clubs, the under is a perfect 6-0 and the under is 8-0-1 in the past nine meetings overall.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (5-1 past six)
Philadelphia has the worst run differential in the National League at minus-105, scoring 3.3 runs per game while allowing 4.7 runs per outing. On their current road trip they have picked up the pace offensively, averaging 6.0 runs per game while allowing 6.4 runs per outing. That has helped the over routinely cash. Vince Velasquez comes off the 15-day disabled list to start Monday's game in Arizona. He has allowed a total of 20 runs over the past 30 1/3 innings, so another over might be just around the corner.
Matchup to watch: Angels vs. Astros
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim host the Houston Astros Monday night as they look to turn things around. The Halos have won just one of their past seven games, and they're 1-4 in their past five against right-handed starting pitching. The Astros have been red hot, winning seven of their past eight games overall while posting a 4-1 record in their past five road outings against right-handed starting pitching. They turn to Collin McHugh to stay hot. The Astros are 5-1 in his past six outings, and 20-6 in his past 26 starts against American League West foes. Houston is also 5-0 in McHugh's past five assignments against the Angels, altthough Houston is just 7-15 in their past 22 trips to the Big A.
Betcha didn’t know: Oakland and San Francisco might only be separated by 12 miles, but they're extremely far apart when they get together on the diamond. The Giants have dominated the series, winning five of the past six meetings while going 16-5 in their past 21 home dates against the Athletics. The A's are also just 2-7 in their past nine interleague games, and 1-4 in their past five interleague road outings while the Giants are 4-0 in their past four interleague games while posting a stellar 48-21 record in their past 69 interleague home games.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-205) at Reds
Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+130) at Yankees
Biggest line move: Angels (+115 to -105) vs. Astros
Dave's MLB Monday
By Dave Essler
Mets/Nats: So we know that Mets aren't hitting, nor are the Nats - who has lost seven straight games before squeaking out a 3-2 win on Sunday. That means it'd be tough to take the over here, for sure. They've split the season series so far, each winning two of three in the others' park. It's the first game back from a long (to the West Coast) road trip, which puts them at a slight disadvantage, looking at the situation. The Mets rested Granderson and Cabrera Sunday - possibly thinking they'd beat Atlanta without them, which obviously didn't happen. So, both teams come in limping. Ross has been very, very good - and Syndergaard is who he is - I worry somewhat about the short leash after leaving the last game with an elbow injury. This has all the earmarks of a low scoring, one run game, that comes down to the bullpens - and I see no clear advantage there, either. So, fundamentals - if Ross has a weakness it's against left handed hitters - which the Mets have plenty of. The Nats rested Zimmerman, Espinosa, and Ramos on Sunday. In the end, at -110 or even better, it's hard not to take Washington here at home.
Arizona/Philadelphia: We like Velasquez, but we like him much better in Philadelphia and not coming off the DL, albeit a short stint. The D-backs haven't seen him (much) but neither had Miami or Atlanta and they both put up runs, and his inability to pitch deep most likely bring the Philadelphia bullpen into play sooner rather than later. The Phillies DID hit Cueto hard on Sunday but their bullpen let them down, and with a 6.33 ERA over the last week it makes it very tough to take them on the road. You can paint almost an identical picture of Arizona, losing late at Colorado but managing to score runs. Arizona has been playing real well the last two weeks (for them) but they are 13-25 at home, and swept the Phillies in a four-game series in Philadelphia last week, which could clearly motivate the Phillies. Ray has not been very good at home, and he held the Philles to two runs in the aforementioned series - so a very recent look at him by the Phillies - and three straight 100+ pitch count games for Ray. Phillies and/or over, especially if we can get 8.5.
Texas/Yankees: As well as the Rangers are playing, I was a little surprised to see Bookmaker open the Yankees at -115, which is now -130 in most places - especially with Chi Chi Rodriguez being recalled from AAA to start this game for Texas. He hadn't been great at Round Rock, a 1.40 WHIP in 80 +/- innings. But, of course the Yankees haven't seen him, and the Rangers pen has been great the last ten days or so, and much, much better on the road this season. But, if the Yankees let Tyler Duffy two-hit them through eight innings, at home - it surely makes it tough to take them. Nova has been very pedestrian, or worse, for the last month - but, nobody in the Rangers' lineup has done anything with him with any amount of at bats. For all the bitching I've done about the New York bullpen, at home they've been pretty solid. New York lost two of three at Texas earlier this season, and for as abysmal as they appear to be, in the AL East they are only six game out of first place. I haven't looked at the weather and don't know the umpire crew, but at 9.5 I might consider the under here. Probably better games.
Boston/Tampa Bay: Boston clearly comes in limping to face a division opponent - and it'd be real easy to fade the Rays, losers of eleven straight and allowing five or more runs in every single one of them. They turn to Blake Snell, who pitched well in April at Yankee Stadium, was recalled and was hammered by Seattle, but only one of those runs was earned, something to keep in mind seeing as how in his next outing he pitched well enough to win at Cleveland, and still hasn't allowed a home run this season. I know, only three starts. I get it. What I worry about is the fact that he hasn't pitched very deep and we know the Rays' pen has an ERA in the double-digits in the last stretch of games. That makes me think that the early bettors taking under 8.5 might be wrong, so at 8 I may look at the over. The same can be said about E-Rod in terms of not pitching deep and having a less-than-great bullpen behind him. The Rays have seen E-Rod - but with so many good players on the DL it might still make them a "stay away" for the time being, and at some point a play on when they start to get these guys back. Boston has just been getting murdered by Texas and the White Sox - giving up a ton of hits and a ton of long balls - which also makes it tough to back them. Let's see what the lineups look like, first.
Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (39-35) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (39-35)
Sportsbook.ag Line: St. Louis +100, Kansas City -110, Total: 8.5
The Cardinals will be looking to earn a big road victory when they face the Royals on Monday.
St. Louis is coming off of an 11-6 victory on Sunday, but the team had lost its previous two contests. The Cardinals had struggled offensively in those two defeats, scoring just seven total runs.
Putting up 11 on Sunday will, however, give them some confidence and the team will be looking to carry its momentum into this meeting with Kansas City.
The Royals had also been struggling before picking up a 6-1 victory on Sunday. They had lost four straight heading into that one and were performing poorly in every aspect of the game.
The starters in this one are set to be RHP Adam Wainwright (6-4, 4.73 ERA, 65 K) for St. Louis and LHP Danny Duffy (2-1, 3.38 ERA, 71 K) for Kansas City.
One trend that favors the Cardinals in this game is the fact that they are 11-4 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The Royals, however, are 38-14 against the money line in home games versus a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the past two seasons.
Adam Wainwright got off to a miserable start to the season, but he has bounced back nicely and has now allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Even more importantly, the Cardinals have emerged victorious in eight of his past 10 appearances.
One key for Wainwright will be avoiding walks in this one. He has walked six batters over his past two outings and it’d be big if he can keep that number under two on Monday. Offensively, it’d be huge for the Cardinals if OF Stephen Piscotty (.292, 8 HR, 39 RBI) can find his groove again.
Piscotty is St. Louis’ best hitter, but he has seen his average drop from .303 to .292 over the past 10 contests. He would really be helping to spark his team if he can get on base a couple of times in this one.
Another guy to keep an eye on for St. Louis is 3B Matt Carpenter (.300, 13 HR, 47 RBI). Carpenter has been hitting the cover off the ball lately. He had two homers in Sunday’s win over the Mariners and has seen his average rise from .288 to .300 over the past 10 games.
Danny Duffy has transitioned nicely into his role as a starter for Kansas City, but his past two outings have been a bit rough. He has allowed six earned runs over the past two games, but has only pitched 9.2 innings total.
If the Royals are going to come away with a victory on Monday then they’ll really need him to work a bit deeper into this game. If Duffy is not able to pitch at least six innings in this one then it’s important that he allows something like two runs or less.
Offensively, SS Alcides Escobar (.255, 1 HR, 19 RBI) is a guy to keep an eye on in this game. He is 8-for-26 with a double and an RBI against Wainwright in his career and it’d be big if he can find his way onto the bases in this one.
1B Eric Hosmer (.310, 12 HR, 46 RBI) will, however, need to figure it out against the Cardinals pitcher. He is just 1-for-13 against Wainwright in his career and the Royals will need him to change that on Monday. He is the best hitter on their team and likely can’t afford to struggle in this one.
HOUSTON ASTROS (39-37) at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (32-44)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston +103, Los Angeles -113, Total: 7.5
Houston will be looking to win its tenth game in its past twelve when the team goes to Los Angeles to play the Angels on Monday.
The Astros got their seven-game win steak snapped yesterday in Kansas City. Their win streak that just ended included a three-game-sweep of the Angels last week. That sweep pushed them to 5-1 in the season series against Los Angeles.
Houston was scoring runs in bunches over the weekend, when in two out of the three games they team scored thirteen runs. Despite the Astros’ current surge, they are still ten games back of Texas in the AL West.
Tonight Houston will have RHP Collin McHugh (5-5, 4.70 ERA, 79 K) on the mound. The Angels also ended a streak on Sunday, but theirs was a six-game losing streak.
This season has not gone Los Angeles’ way. They have a 32-44 record and are last in the AL West standings. Even though Houston has the edge in the season series this year, over the past three seasons the Angels have gone 15-8 at home against the Astros. Tonight, with RHP Matt Shoemaker (3-8, 4.43 ERA, 84 K) starting, the Angels look to make it two wins in a row.
Houston, as a team, has been hot at the plate over the last seven days (.303). The hitting has been led by 2B Jose Altuve (.347, 13 HR, 44 RBI), who is hitting .395 in June. Altuve also has great stats against LA this season (.455, 2 HR, 4 RBI) and against Shoemaker for his career (.429, 2 HR, 2 RBI). OF Colby Rasmus (.246, 10 HR, 39 RBI) has been hot over the last seven days as well, hitting .455 with one homer and three RBI. Rasmus is also hitting .455 against the Angels this year.
SS Carlos Correa (.261, 12 HR, 42 RBI) has collected nine RBIs in the last six games. He also has 11 RBIs in the six games against Los Angeles this year.
Houston’s starter tonight, Collin McHugh, has been throwing well recently, but has not had much run support to get him wins. His last two outings he gave up two or less runs, but still didn’t come away with a victory. One of those games was last week when he pitched against the Angels and he threw seven innings and gave up just two runs. The team did go on to win the game. McHugh has a 4-2 record with a 2.82 ERA in his career against Los Angeles.
The Angels’ starter, Matt Shoemaker, has struggled this season and will be hoping to turn it around on Monday. Recently he has been having good outings, but he hasn’t picked up wins. In his last three starts he is 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA. In last week’s series with Houston, he threw 7.1 innings and gave up three runs. The team has not played well behind Shoemaker this season, going 4-10 in games that he has started. This game may be settled between the bullpens because both starters have had strings of no-decisions lately.
Look for OF Mike Trout (.313, 16 HR, 52 RBI) to have a big night because he has been hot lately, hitting .414 with two homers and five RBI over the last seven days. He also leads the team in BA, HR, RBI, and OBP for the year. DH Albert Pujols (.239, 14 HR, 48 RBI) has also been hot over the last seven days, hitting .318 with two homers and four RBI. Look to see if 1B C.J. Cron (.261, 6 HR, 32 RBI) has a good night at the plate because in last week’s game when McHugh pitched he hit a bomb.