MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, June 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Reds
Martinez is 4-1, 2.23 in his last six starts; his last three stayed under. Cardinals are 1-3 in his road starts.
Wojciechowski allowed four runs in four IP (64 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Toronto.
Cardinals lost in Chicago last night; they’ve lost six of last eight games, are 2-6 in road series openers. Under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Reds lost five of last six games, are 5-5 in home series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Phillies @ Braves
Pivetta is 0-3, 5.12 in four starts this season (over 2-1-1).
Colon is 0-2, 13.89 in his last three starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Atlanta split his four home starts.
Phillies lost five of last seven games, are 4-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine road games. Braves are 3-5 in last eight games, 4-3 in home series openers. Over is 10-3-2 in their last 15 home games.
Giants @ Brewers
Samardzija is 1-3, 4.13 in his last five starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. SF is 2-6 in his road outings.
Guerra is 1-0, 1.84 in three starts this season (over 2-1).
Giants lost five of last six road games, are 5-5 in road series openers (won last three). Over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Brewers lost six of last nine home games, are 5-5 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Marlins @ Cubs
Straily 3-0, 4.08 in his last three starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Marlins are 2-2 in his road starts.
Butler is 2-1, 4.42 in four starts this season (under 2-1-1).
Marlins won seven of last eight games, are 3-6 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Cubs won their last six home games, are 3-6 in home series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Nationals @ Dodgers
Gonzalez is 1-1, 4.80 in his last five starts; Washington is 3-2 in his road starts (over 4-1).
Ryu is 1-0, 2.38 in his last two starts (under 5-2-1). Dodgers are 2-1 in his home starts.
Nationals won seven of last nine games; they’re 7-3 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. Dodgers won five of last six home games, are 7-2 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
American League
Astros @ Royals
Fiers is 1-1, 4.84 in his last four starts; Houston is 5-1 in his road starts (over 3-2-1).
Kennedy is 0-3, 11.93 in his last four starts; his last five went over. Royals are 1-4 in his home outings.
Astros won their last ten games, are 8-1 in road series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Royals are 5-3 in last eight games, 5-5 in home series openers. Under is 13-6 in their last 19 home games.
Blue Jays @ A’s
Happ is 0-3, 4.50 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Manaea is 3-0, 1.89 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his home starts.
Toronto is 10-3 in its last 13 games, 6-3 in road series openers. Over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. Oakland lost seven of last nine games, is 4-5 in home series openers. Over is 12-4 in their last 12 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Cin: Martinez 6-5; Wolciechowski 0-1
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 0-4; Colon 5-6
SF-Mil: Samardzija 4-7; Guerra 1-2
Mia-Chi: Straily 6-5; Butler 2-2
Wash-LA: Gonzalez 6-5; Ryu 2-6
American League
Hst-KC: Fiers 6-4; Kennedy 2-7
Tor-A’s: Happ Manaea 4-5 (3-0 last 3)
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Cin: Martinez 2-11; Wolciechowski 0-1
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 2-4; Colon 3-11
SF-Mil: Samardzija 5-11; Guerra 0-3
Mia-Chi: Straily 1-11; Butler 2-4
Wash-LA: Gonzalez 5-11; Ryu 5-8
American League
Hst-KC: Fiers 6-10; Kennedy 2-9
Tor-A’s: Happ Manaea 1-9
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 30-15 AL, favorites +$40
AL @ NL– 29-25 AL, favorites +$302
Total: 59-40 AL, favorites +$342
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 26-23-1
AL @ NL: Over 31-19-1
Total: Over 57-42-2
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Astros (10-0 past four games, 21-5 past 26 overall)
The Astros went without a loss last week, exorcising their demons in Arlington with a convincing three-game sweep of the Rangers. They outscored Texas 20-8, and they have posted 82 runs to just 36 during their 10-game run. They turn to Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96 ERA) to keep the streak rolling in Kansas City on Monday. Fiers has served up 18 homers across 52 2/3 innings this season, although he has cut down on his long balls recently. He has allowed just two clouts across the past 16 2/3 innings over his past three outings. Houston was outscored 16-6 in their early-season three-game series against the Royals at Minute Maid Park back on April 7-9, so the Astros will have revenge on their minds.
Coldest team Cardinals (2-6 past eight games, 5-13 past 18 overall)
The Cardinals were swept by their rivals at Wrigley Field, as the defending champion Cubs got well at home. St. Louis will turn to ace Carlos Martinez to try and stem the tide of losing in Cincinnati. The last time Martinez was on the hill the Cards pushed aside the Dodgers by a 2-1 score at home on May 31. However, the last time Martinez worked on the road the Cardinals were clubbed by a 10-0 score in Denver by the red-hot Rockies. St. Louis has managed just one win over their past seven against a right-handed starter, and they're 0-7 in their past seven series openers. The good news is the Cardinals are 13-3 in Martinez's past 16 road outings against a team with a losing record.
Hottest pitcher: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (4-1, 3.03 ERA)
Gonzalez has posted a .245 batting average and 1.40 WHIP across 68 1/3 innings over 11 starts this season, tasting defeat just once. He'll look to stay hot in a road outing in L.A. opposition Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-5, 3.91 ERA) and the Dodgers. The Nationals have been hot, winning six of their past seven road outings, and they're 4-0 in Gonzo's past five outings against National League West opponents. The Nats are also 5-1 over his past six outings against teams with an overall winning record. On the flip side, the Dodgers have dropped nine of Ryu's past 11 starts, while going 0-7 in his past seven attempts against teams with an overall winning record.
Coldest pitcher: Bartolo Colon, Braves (2-6, 6.99 ERA)
Colon is tied with Yankees SP Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 6.34 ERA) for the most earned runs allowed this season, 43. The 44-year-old veteran is no longer fooling anyone, as the opposition is hitting .325 against Colon while he has an awful 1.66 WHIP. Colon has given up 77 hits over just 55 1/3 innings and he has won just once over his past eight starts dating back to April 16. He'll face the Phillies at SunTrust Park on Monday, and he has not endeared himself to the home fans yet. He is 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA over 20 1/3 innings across four starts. He also allowed four runs and a season-high 11 hits over seven innings in a loss April 21 at Philadelphia.
Biggest UNDER run: Dodgers (4-1 past five games, 9-4 past 13 overall)
The Dodgers have had some difficulty scoring runs lately, posting two or fewer runs in four of their past five outings. It's no surprise the 'under' is 4-1 during the span. They'll try to turn things around at home against the visiting Nationals, but as mentioned above, Washington SP Gio Gonzalez ranks 17th in the majors with a 3.03 ERA. The 'under' is 8-2 in Ryu's past 10 starts overall, including 4-1 in his past five against teams with a winning overall record. The under is also 6-2-1 over his past nine starts at home against teams with a winning overall mark while going 3-1-1 in Ryu's past five assignments against NL East foes.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (5-2-1 past eight games, 8-3-1 past 12 overall)
The Braves return home where they allowed 26 runs over the final three games of their previous homestand. The 'over' is 8-3-1 over their past 12 outings, and 6-1 over the past seven outings for Colon. The over is also 4-1 across his past five starts in a series opener while going 33-16-2 over Atlanta's past 51 home games overall. The over is also 35-17-1 in Atlanta's past 53 divisional games, although the 'under' has hit in four straight meetings against Philadelphia.
Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Astros
The Royals will host the red-hot Astros, looking to cool them off, or at least slow them down a little. It could be a high-scoring game at Kauffman Stadium on Monday, as Ian Kennedy of the Royals has served up nine homers over 45 2/3 innings across nine starts while going 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA this season. Astros SP Mike Fiers has allowed an American League-worst 18 home runs over 52 2/3 innings over 10 outings while the opposition is hitting .280 against him. Fiers has been terrible on the road, too, posting a 5.70 ERA over 30 innings across six starts. The 'over' has hit in Kennedy's past five outings while going 3-1-2 in the past six road assignments for Fiers. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Kansas City, too.
Betcha didn’t know: The third baseman for the Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson, has launched four home runs over his past five games. He returns to where it all started, as Toronto meets Oakland in the Bay Area to kick off a new series. Donaldson could find continued success against an Athletics pitching staff serving up 10.3 runs per game over their past four losses. Blue Jays DH Kendrys Morales has posted five games with two or more hits over his past 10 appearances, too, while Justin Smoak of the Jays has already racked up as many home runs (14) as he posted during the entire 2016 campaign.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-140) vs. Marlins
Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+130) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Giants (+115 to -105) at Brewers
Red-hot Nats and Dodgers meet Monday
By: StatFox.com
Both the Nationals and Dodgers will be looking to keep up their excellent play when the teams meet in Los Angeles on Monday.
The Nationals have won five of their past six games heading into Monday night’s game, but the Dodgers are similarly hot. Los Angeles has lost three of its past five games, but the team had won six straight before that five-game stint. Both of these teams also happen to be some of the more dominant teams in the league, as Washington has a run differential of +70 this season and Los Angeles has a run differential of +84. It’ll be interesting to see if these offenses can get going on Monday, though. There is a pair of southpaws on the mound, so things will be a bit different for most of these hitters. The starters that will be giving it a go in this game are LHP Gio Gonzalez (4-1, 3.03 ERA, 60 K) for Washington and LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-5, 3.91 ERA, 42 K) for Los Angeles. One trend that favors the Nationals in this game is the fact that the team is 15-4 against the money line when playing against teams with a winning percentage between 54% and 62% over the past two seasons when Gonzalez is on the mound. The Dodgers, however, are an impressive 21-4 against the money line at home when the total is between 8 and 8.5 over the past two seasons.
The Nationals have a very nice lead in the NL East, and Gio Gonzalez has been a big part of the team’s success this season. Gonzalez has started 11 games for Washington this season, and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of those starts. He most recently faced the Giants on May 30 and allowed just three earned runs in 6.1 innings of work. One thing he does, however, need to do is lower his walks. He has put 35 runners on this season, and that is truly a terrible number. Offensively, the Nationals will be hoping for a jolt from OF Bryce Harper (.324 BA, 15 HR, 43 RBI). Harper played in his first game back from a suspension on Sunday. He went 0-for-2, but he did draw three walks and score twice. He should be feeling very well rested right now, and the Nationals need him to get right back to producing at the plate. Washington can also use something from 2B Daniel Murphy (.340 BA, 10 HR, 40 RBI) in this one. Murphy is 3-for-9 against Ryu in his career, so he will definitely be confident on Monday.
Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn’t necessarily been eating innings this season, but he has been very productive in his time on the mound. Over his past two starts, Ryu has allowed just one earned run in 10 innings of work. While those are impressive results, Los Angeles can really use a lengthy outing from him on Monday. It’d be big if he can work into the sixth or seventh inning, but the team would also prefer quality over quantity. Offensively, 2B Logan Forsythe (.215 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBI) is one guy that might be able to help the Dodgers in this one. Forsythe has struggled to stay healthy this season, but he is 4-for-6 with two RBI against Gio Gonzalez in his career. The Dodgers will also be hoping that SS Corey Seager (.271 BA, 7 HR, 24 RBI) can get it going. He has really struggled recently, but he is a great hitter and should figure it out soon.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (+100, 8.5)
The Giants and Brewers open a four-game series Monday evening in Milwaukee with a very interesting pitching matchup and a curious betting line.
The Giants come to town losers of five of their last six games, including losing two out of three to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Brewers also lost two out of three over the weekend but they were all very competitive battles against a very good Los Angeles Dodgers team.
For Game 1 of this series the Giants are sending veteran Jeff Samardzija to the mound - a guy who makes a lot of money to throw baseballs but is, in all honesty, a better wide receiver than he is a pitcher. "Shark" has a very rocky history pitching at Miller Park, and against the Brewers in general. Samardzija has made 10 career starts against the Brewers and his teams are 1-9 in those outings, including losses in eight straight. His teams have lost his last five starts at Miller Park where he owns a 6.15 ERA for his career.
The Brewers will be sending their ace Junior Guerra to the bump. Guerra will be making his third start since missing seven weeks with a calf injury. He has an electric arm and looked great while allowing only one run over 11.2 innings (0.77 ERA) since returning from the disabled list.
The Giants are a dismal 10-21 on the road this season, so them being favored by oddsmakers over a pretty good team who will be starting their ace tonight doesn't make a lot of sense. The conspiracy theorist gamblers would say, "There's something fishy about that line."
One aspect of the Brewers that we don't trust tonight is their bullpen. They possess one of the worst bullpens in baseball over the first two months of the season with an ERA of 4.05, 11 blown saves (second most in MLB), and a major league high 16 losses.
All of this info wrapped up together is screaming for a five-inning wager on the Milwaukee Brewers.
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 innings (-105)
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (+120, 9.5)
The Astros and Royals open their four-game series Monday night with a matchup of hittable right-handed starting pitchers.
Mike Friers (4.96 ERA) gets the ball for the Astros on the road tonight where he has been much more comfortable this season. Friers is 2-0 away from home thus far in 2017 and over his last three starts he owns a fairly reasonable 3.24 ERA. Home runs have certainly been his Achilles heel, with 18 big flies allowed in 10 starts, but a light hitting Royals lineup with a slight breeze blowing in from center should help his cause in that regard.
Ian Kennedy will get Monday's start for the Royals and he is having a terrible season in 2017 at 0-5 (team win/loss 2-7) and an ERA of 5.12. Over his last three outings it has been even worse with a 12.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and only 10 total innings pitched in those three starts.
The Houston Astros are the best team in baseball and have been incredible in the road this season at 21-6. Their league-leading road performance over the first two months of the season has profited bettors $1497 (based on a $100 wager for every road game). They have almost as many road wins this season (21) as the Royals have overall wins this season (24).
You give us this kind of value on this Houston Astros team and we'll take it every day.
Pick: Astros -135
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 54-43-5
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (4-4, 3.08 ERA, $-63)
The St. Louis Cardinals' starting rotation has been rolling over the last few weeks and their Opening Day starter Carlos Martinez is no exception. The wins haven't been there to the level that he would like, but if he continues to pitch the way he's been tossing over his last three outings the wins will certainly come.
Over his last three assignments, Martinez owns a 1.48 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and an opponent's on base percentage of only .207 in three quality starts.
Martinez gets the ball today in Cincinnati against the Reds and the Cards are favored at -140.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Atlanta Braves (2-6, 6.99 ERA, $114)
Bartolo Colon's struggles have continued as a member of the Atlanta Braves. This is three or four times that "Big Sexy" has been featured in our "Slumping Starting Pitchers" section.
It's tough to hide when you are Bartolo Colon - and it's even tougher to hide when you are 2-6 with a 6.99 ERA and you have allowed 16 runs over your last two starts (7.1 innings of work).
This Colon experiment in Atlanta can't last much longer if this continues. The Braves are slight favorites at -120 at home against the Phillies tonight.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 1-12 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. +110 today @ Braves.
* Jeff Samardzija's teams have lost his last eight starts against the Milwaukee Brewers. -115 today @ Brewers.
* Under is 8-1 in the Chicago Cubs' last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins (Straily)/Cubs Total: 7.5.
* Under is 8-0 in the Kansas City Royals' last eight games vs. American League West. Astros/Royals Total: 9.5.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter. -125 vs. Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is some rain in the forecast today for Atlanta (50-60 percent chance) where the Braves are scheduled to host the Philadelphia Phillies. There will also be thunderstorms in the Atlanta area all day, so we'll have to wait and see what they decide to do with that contest.
The Wrigley Field wind today will be a stiff 15 miles per hour blowing straight in from the left field bleachers. The total for tonight's game between the Cubs and Marlins has been set at 7.5.
There will also be a 12-15 mile per hour breeze blowing out to center tonight in Oakland where the Blue Jays and A's will be facing a betting total of 8.