National League
Cubs @ Phillies
Lester is 2-0, 1.76 in his last two starts; four of his last six starts went over.
Morgan is 0-4, 9.61 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Cubs are 10-2 in last 12 games, 15-3 in series openers. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Philly is 4-12 in last 16 games, 2-7 in home series openers; four of their last five games went over.
Mets @ Pirates
Matz is 7-0, 1.51 in his last eight starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Niese is 2-0, 2.25 in his last four starts (over 7-4).
Mets are 4-6 in last ten road games, 6-3 in road series openers. Over is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Pittsburgh lost seven of last nine games; 5-4 in home series openers; their last seven home games went over.
Braves @ Padres
Perez is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts (over 5-3).
Friedrich is 2-1, 2.95 in four starts, last three of which went over.
Atlanta is 10-17 on the road; four of their last five road games stayed under. Braves are 2-7 in road series openers. Padres lost ten of last 14 games; nine of their last twelve games went over. San Diego is 7-3 in home series openers.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Chatwood is 2-1, 3.51 in his last four starts (under 10-1).
Bolsinger is 1-2, 4.20 in his three starts (over 2-1).
Dodgers won ten of last thirteen games; five of their last six games stayed under total. LA is 4-5 in home series openers. Colorado lost ten of its last 13 games (over 9-4); they're 6-4 in road series openers.
American League
Angels @ New York
Shoemaker is 1-1, 1.99 in his last three starts (under 5-4-1).
Tanaka is 2-1, 1.35 in his last three starts, which all stayed under.
Bronx lost eight of last 12 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. NY is 4-4 in home series openers. Angels are 8-4 in last 12 road games, with last four going over the total. Halos are 6-3 in road series openers.
Royals @ Orioles
Duffy is 1-0, 3.86 in his four starts (over 2-2).
Wright is 0-0, 9.24 in his last three starts; his last six starts went over.
Royals lost their last four games; over is 9-2-2 in their last 13. KC is 3-6 in road series openers. Baltimore won four of its last five games (over 4-1)- Orioles are 6-4 in home series openers.
Blue Jays @ Tigers
Happ is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Fulmer is 3-0, 0.40 in his last three starts (over 5-2).
Toronto won nine of its last 11 games; under is 7-3 in its last ten road games. Jays are 7-2 in road series openers. Detroit won four of last five games; over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games. Tigers are 4-5 in home series openers.
Astros @ Rangers
Fiers is 0-2, 5.40 in his last three starts (over 5-1-1 in last seven).
Lewis is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Astros are 11-2 in last 13 games, 3-6 in road series openers; six of their last eight tilts went over. Texas is 12-3 in its last 15 games, 6-4 in home series openers- five of their last six games went over the total.
Indians @ Mariners
Bauer is 0-2, 4.74 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Paxton allowed eight runs in 3.2 IP (103 PT) in his first '16 start.
Indians won their last five games; they're 4-5 in road series openers. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Seattle lost seven of its last ten games- over is 11-1 in its last 12 games. Mariners are 4-5 in home series openers.
Interleague
Rays @ Diamondbacks
Archer is 0-3, 7.94 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over. .
Ray is 0-2, 6.14 in his last three starts (over 4-0-1 in last five).
Tampa Bay won its last three games; over is 14-2-1 in their last 17 road games. Rays are 4-6 in road series openers. Arizona.lost five of last seven games; they're 2-7 in home series openers. Last four Diamondback games stayed under the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Chi-Phil-- Lester 8-3; Morgan 2-5
NY-Pitt-- Matz 7-2; Niese 7-4
Atl-SD-- Perez 6-2; Friedrich 3-1
Col-LA-- Chatwood 7-4; Bolsinger 1-2
LA-NY-- Shoemaker 3-7; Tanaka 7-4
KC-Balt-- Duffy 4-0; Wright 6-3
Tor-Det-- Happ 7-4; Fulmer 6-1
Hst-Tex-- Fiers 5-5; Lewis 7-4
Cle-Sea-- Bauer 3-4; Paxton 0-1
TB-Az-- Archer 4-8; Ray 3-8
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Chi-Phil-- Lester 2-11; Morgan 2-7
NY-Pitt-- Matz 1-9; Niese 2-11
Atl-SD-- Perez 2-8; Friedrich 2-4
Col-LA-- Chatwood 3-11; Bolsinger 1-3
LA-NY-- Shoemaker 3-10; Tanaka 1-11
KC-Balt-- Duffy 0-4; Wright 2-9
Tor-Det-- Happ 4-11; Fulmer 2-7
Hst-Tex-- Fiers 2-10; Lewis 6-11
Cle-Sea-- Bauer 3-7; Paxton 1-1
TB-Az-- Archer 6-12; Ray 1-11
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MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
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Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park with each team coming at it from opposite ends of the spectrum.
The Cubs obviously having a tremendous season at a Major League leading best 39-16 (+$1014) head into the contest ridding a 10-2 streak outscoring opponents 62-30. The Phillies a surprising 28-29 (+$392) on the campaign have hit a rough spot and will be looking to improve a 2-8 skid in which they've been outscored 41-29.
Chicago will send out lefthander Jon Lester, who currently sports a 6-3 record, 2.29 ERA. In his last outing, Lester went the distance vs Dodgers allowing 4 hits, 1 run with 10 K's, no walks. Lester brings a perfect 5-0 record, 1.71 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia with his teams (Chi, Oak, Bos) 6-1 in those games.
The Phillies have southpaw Adam Morgan tasked with starting duties. Morgan saddled with a four game losing streak tagged for 6 long-ball, 21 runs is 1-4 over seven starts with a whopping 7.07 ERA. Morgan has faced Cubs twice in his career dropping both games surrendering 15 hits, 3 yardball, 10 runs over 9 innings of work.
Looking at those team/pitcher numbers, it's no surprise to see the Chicago Cubs pegged a hefty -$2.75 moneyline road favorite at Sports Interaction.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
When the Texas Rangers host Houston Astros at Globe Life Park in Arlington Monday night's they'll look to continue a solid trend against their in-state rival. The Rangers have won six straight vs Stros this season and have won 14 of the past 16 meetings including a sparkling 10-0 streak hosting Astros. Rangers handing the ball to Colby Lewis bodes well for the club extending the dominance. The Ranger righthander is 10-1 with a 2.50 ERA in 13 starts vs. the Astros (10-3 TSR).
Dave's MLB Monday
By Dave Essler
Arizona/Rays: So the D-Backs have a happy flight back from Chicago and the Rays have a happy flight from Minnesota. I guess we could think that with no familiarity here that Archer is the better pitcher, but I'm not sure with that bullpen and no DH (meaning unless the Rays are winning he IS getting PH for) that I can go there. This could be a F5 under - and although the D-Backs pen found themselves Sunday in Chicago, one has to wonder if that's an anomaly or the new norm. Arizona and/or under at this point.
Seattle/Cleveland: There's a reason why Paxton is only -110 and that's because he's been got hammered by the Padres and seems to be slowly regressing since his 2014 season which showed so much promise. Cleveland has been hot at the plate, but did have to use more bullpen that I thought with the long rain delay Sunday - but, being hot and as opposed to prior years, hitting LHP, it's probably the Indians or nothing.
Houston/Texas: People are probably STILL going to try to fade Lewis, but they're doing so against a team that HAS struggled to put up runs lately and benefited from playing some weaker competition. Texas has won seven of eight and leads the NL West. Fiers appears to be on the decline a bit, so I do like Texas. My only reservation is that Lewis shut out the Astros not that long ago and we do like the "adjustments" to be made. However, Texas or nothing.
Toronto/Detroit: At some point the value will transfer to the Blue Jays, and as well as Happ has pitched to get them in an underdog role might be something to look at. However, we know the Tigers are on fire at the plate again - and it's their bats that are going to both win and lose games. They just have not won many pitchers' duels and likely won't with that bullpen. Fulmer clearly on a "bettors high" with two straight shutouts - but against Oakland and at the time, the slumping Angels. I like this game to stay under, at least the F5 -
Yankees/Angels: So now we get a team who's bats woke up in Pittsburgh against the Yankees who just can't score and are staying in Baltimore through a lengthy rain delay. The situation almost screams for the Angels here, but Shoemaker has burned me on more than one occasion and has throw a lot of pitches lately. At least this game appears to have under written on it for the first five innings, and I don't really trust either bullpen - but could see taking that flyer on the Angels.
Colorado/Dodgers: I've been behind Chatwood a far bit this season and was the other night when the Reds lit him up and started their own little hitting streak. However, I can't let one game dictate policy - and Bolsinger has just not ever shown much ability to get beyond 5-6 innings. Were it not for the Dodgers often-maligned offense I'd consider the over here, but truly any final verdict has to wait until the Rockies play late Sunday in San Diego. That's travel, and it's not far, but it's late.
Braves/Padres: I know most people don't like when I lean or bet the Braves and don't just blindly take the Cubs or the Cubs RL every day - but oh well. Last year, Perez was shelled. This season he's got a very respectable WHIP and kept the ball in the park so I would hardly rule out the Braves. Sooner or later the Padres bats will regress. And if you want your money behind Friedrich against almost anyone as a favorite, I wish you luck.
Mets/Pirates: Pittsburgh hit the skids over the weekend so I wonder where their confidence level is at, the Mets can't score and face a former Met in Jonathon Niese. It's been my experience that pitchers' going against former teams have tended to fare well, the Mets pen is somewhat in disarray, but the Pirates haven't seen Matz - this one has under written on it in my opinion - and if you made me take a side it'd have to be the Pirates, but not yet with a ton of conviction. We'll need to see lineups for that one, especially Cespedes. He may not be a one man wrecking crew but he is someone many teams will pitch around.
Cubs/Phillies: I suppose the Cubs will get back on track, but I always have a hard time backing teams that might run on Lester, and some of the Phillies individually have been able to get on base. Morgan was just crushed by the Cubs a couple of starts ago, but I'm not sure he's good enough to make that many adjustments. However - I do think the Phillies can get some, so lean to the over but of course don't know the HP umpire yet nor have I looked at the weather pattern.
Cubs visit Phillies
By Sportsbook.ag
CHICAGO CUBS (39-16) at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (28-29)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Chicago -260, Philadelphia +220, Total: 8.0
Jon Lester and the league-best Cubs kick off a three-game series against Adam Morgan and the Phillies in a battle of lefties at Citizens Bank Park.
The Cubs (39-16) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. Still, the best team in baseball holds a comfortable 9 ½-game lead over the second-place Pirates in the National League Central.
LHP Jon Lester (6-3, 2.29 ERA, 69 SO, 17 BB, 7 HR in 70 2/3 IP) will take the hill for Chicago as it begins a nine-game road trip in Philadelphia. Lester is coming off the best start of his season, a complete-game masterpiece against the Dodgers in which he allowed one run on four hits and recorded 10 strikeouts to no walks.
On the mound for the fourth-place Phillies (28-29) will be LHP Adam Morgan (1-4, 7.07 ERA, 24 SO, 10 BB, 7 HR in 35 2/3 IP). Morgan has really struggled of late, allowing 21 earned runs in his last 19 2/3 innings of work. The Phillies had lost seven in a row before finally beating the Brewers on Friday, and then again on Sunday.
The Cubs hosted the Phillies at Wrigley Field from May 27-29 and swept them, outscoring Philadelphia 17-5. Chicago has played great on the road this season, posting a 17-8 mark. The Phillies have gone 15-14 in their home park.
Joe Maddon’s squad just keeps on rolling. The Cubs are second in the National League in runs (297) and first in ERA (2.57), a lethal combination. Dominant pitching and an imposing lineup have the Cubs playing .709 ball. Chicago’s best hitter in 2016 has been 2B Ben Zobrist (.326, 7 HR, 35 RBI, .438 OBP), who has shined in his first season with the club.
CF Dexter Fowler (.303, 7 HR, 25 RBI, .421 OBP) has been a consistent spark out of the leadoff spot and 3B Kris Bryant (.274, 13 HR, 40 RBI, .358 OBP) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (.251, 13 HR, 40 RBI, .390 OBP) lead the club with 13 dingers. Bryant, backup C David Ross (.238, 4 HR, 17 RBI, .340 OBP) and LF Jorge Soler (.211, 5 HR, 13 RBI, .313 OBP) have all homered off Morgan, and the Cubs’ roster as a whole has gone 15-for-36 (.417) against him. The 26-year-old faced the Cubs on May 27 and was lit up for six earned runs on eight hits in just four innings. Lester has dominated the Phillies in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA.
The Phillies have had problems scoring runs all season. They’re second-to-last in the National League in runs (184), tied for 13th in homers (48), 13th in average (.233) and last in on-base percentage (.289). The brightest spot in Pete Mackanin’s lineup has been CF Odubel Herrera (.317, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .426 OBP, 7 SB).
3B Maikel Franco (.250, 10 HR, 31 RBI, .299 OBP) leads the club in homers, while 1B Ryan Howard (.151, 8 HR, 19 RBI, .211 OBP)—once one of the most feared sluggers in baseball—has been relegated to the bench in favor of 1B Tommy Joseph (.298, 4 HR, 7 RBI, .300 OBP). The Phils haven’t had much success against Lester. Howard is 2-for-11 against him with six strikeouts and backup C Carlos Ruiz (.226, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .301 OBP) is 0-for-14 with four strikeouts.
SS Freddy Galvis has gone 3-for-11 with a homer against the three-time All-Star and backup OF Peter Bourjos is 5-for-13 against Lester with a double. Lester beat the Phillies on May 27, allowing one earned run on six hits in 6 1/3 innings.