MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Braves
Gsellman is 0-2, 8.71 in four starts this year (over 4-0).
Teheran is 2-1, 3.99 in five starts this year (over 3-1 in last four).
Mets lost seven of their last nine games; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten games- they’re 3-0 in road series openers. Atlanta won four of its last five games (over 4-1); they’re 3-5 in series openers.
Pirates @ Reds
Cole is 1-2, 2.37 in his last three starts (under 4-1).
Garrett is 0-2, 10.45 in his last two starts (over 2-2).
Pirates won three of last four games; they’re 4-5 in series openers. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Cincinnati lost eight of its last ten games- their last eight games went over. Reds are 3-5 in series openers.
Phillies @ Cubs
Velasquez is 1-2, 6.33 in four starts this year (over 4-0).
Anderson is 2-0, 4.43 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Cubs played in Boston last nite: they lost three of last four games, are 3-5 in series openers. Over is 10-1 in their last 11 gams. Phillies lost last three games; they’re 4-4 in in series openers. Over is 4-0-3 in their last seven road games.
Brewers @ St Louis
Davies is 2-0, 3.60 in his last two starts (over 5-0).
Wacha is 2-1, 2.92 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Brewers won four of last six games; they’re 6-3 on road, 6-2 in series openers. Over is 13-3 in their last sixteen games. St Louis is 9-3 in its last 12 games, 6-2 in last eight at home. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games.
Giants @ Dodgers
Cueto is 3-1, 5.70 in five starts this year (over 4-0-1).
Kershaw is 3-0, 1.61 in his last three starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 games, 3-9 on road, 4-4 in series openers. Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Dodgers won their last four games; under is 4-1-1 in their last seven home games- they’re 3-5 in series openers.
American League
Blue Jays @ Bronx
Estrada is 0-0, 0.95 in his last three starts (under 3-2).
Severino is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts (under 3-1).
Toronto won its last two games; they’re 1-6 in game following a win—over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road tilts. Jays are 3-5 in series openers. Bronx won 14 of last 18 games, is 10-2 at home- over is 6-1 in their last seven home tilts. New York is 4-0 in home series openers.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Bundy is 3-1, 1.65 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Porcello is 2-1, 4.15 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Orioles are 7-5 on road; over is 5-1 in their last six games- they’re 5-3 in series openers. Boston lost five of its last eight games; eight of their last ten games stayed under. Red Sox are 5-4 in series openers.
Indians @ Tigers
Bauer is 2-2, 6.26 in four starts this year (over 3-0-1).
Norris is 0-2, 9.35 in his last two starts (over 3-0-1).
Cleveland won nine of last 12 games; seven of their last nine games stayed under. Tribe is 4-4 in series openers. Detroit lost four of its last five games; over is 8-1-2 in their last eleven games overall. Tigers are 5-3 in series openers.
Rangers @ Astros
Cashner 0-2, 3.52 in three starts this year (under 2-0-1).
McCullers is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in last four).
Texas lost four of last six games overall, five of last six on road- they’re 3-5 in series openers. Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. Houston won six of last eight home tilts; under is 10-4 in their home games. Astros are 6-2 in series openers.
While Sox @ Royals
Covey is 0-1, 6.91 in his three starts this month (over 2-1).
Vargas is 3-1, 1.75 in four starts this year (under 3-1).
Chicago won six of its last seven games; they’re 3-5 in series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Kansas City lost its last nine games; they’re 5-5 at home, 2-6 in series openers. Over is 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Interleague
Rays @ Marlins
Odorizzi is making first start since April 15; he is 1-1, 4.15 in three starts (under 2-1).
Chen is 1-1, 6.00 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-10 on road, 4-4 in series openers. Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games. Miami lost four of last five games; they’re 2-6 in series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Atl: Gsellman 2-2; Teheran 2-3
Pitt-Cin: Cole 2-3; Garrett 2-2
Phil-Chi: Velasquez 1-3; Anderson 3-1
Mil-StL: Davies 2-3; Wacha 2-2
SF-LA: Cueto 4-1; Kershaw 4-1
American League
Tor-NY: Estrada 2-3; Severino 2-2
Balt-Bos: Bundy 4-1; Porcello 2-3
Clev-Det: Bauer 2-2; Norris 1-3
Tex-Hst: Cashner 1-2; McCullers 4-1
Chi-KC: Covey 2-1; Vargas 3-1
Interleague
TB-Mia: Odorizzi 1-2; Chen 2-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Atl: Gsellman 3-4; Teheran 1-5
Pitt-Cin: Cole 1-5; Garrett 1-4
Phil-Chi: Velasquez 3-4; Anderson 2-4
Mil-StL: Davies 1-5; Wacha 1-4
SF-LA: Cueto 0-5; Kershaw 3-5
American League
Tor-NY: Estrada 1-5; Severino 1-4
Balt-Bos: Bundy 0-5; Porcello 1-5
Clev-Det: Bauer 0-4; Norris 1-4
Tex-Hst: Cashner 1-3; McCullers 1-5
Chi-KC: Covey 2-3; Vargas 0-4
Interleague
TB-Mia: Odorizzi 1-3; Chen 1-4
Armadillosports.com
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 8.5)
The Brewers and Cardinals kick off their four-game rivalry series with a Monday evening matchup of righty starters - Zack Davies and Michael Wacha.
This first pick of the new week comes down to two major factors: the Brewers' starting pitcher and the weather.
Davies is not an acceptable major league starting pitcher. Somehow, he managed to spin five shutout innings in his last start at home against the Cincinnati Reds, but despite that effort his season ERA is still a puffy 6.57. All five of his starts this season, and nine of his last 10 overall dating back to last season, have gone Over the closing total. Davies' last start against the Cards was two weeks ago when he allowed four runs over 5.1 innings of work - he'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that mediocre effort tonight.
Never place a totals wager without checking the weather report! The wind for Monday night in St. Louis is expected to be blowing straight out to center field at 13-15 miles per hour.
Pick: Over 8.5
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5)
Revenge is a dish best served...pretty warm...perhaps even hot.
One week ago in Chicago, Kansas City Royals' lefty Jason Vargas swaggered his way into Guaranteed Rate Field on the city's South Side as the best pitcher in baseball (3-0, 0.44 ERA). By the end of that evening the White Sox had taught him a valuable lesson about being too confident, with the final result (mostly because of the Royals' bullpen) being a 12-1 Kansas City loss.
Exactly seven days later, Vargas will straddle the rubber atop his home field mound at Kauffman Stadium loaded with just the right amount of "fear and ignorance" (or is it "fear and arrogance"?), and he will spite his evil enemy with a might revenge performance.
Pick: Royals -155
Yesterday: 1-1
Season: 17-16-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (3-1, 1.65 ERA, $300)
The Orioles send Dylan Bundy to the mound at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox in a game that should carry with it some playoff intensity after the events of last week between these two teams.
Bundy is finally looking like the prospect who was so highly touted for all those years in the Orioles organization. The 24-year-old right hander is 3-1 in his five starts this season (Team W/L 4-1), pitching to a 1.65 ERA and a .980 WHIP
Slumping: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (1-3, 3.60 ERA, $-51)
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates today in Cincinnati against the Reds. The "Slumping Starting Pitcher" section for today is not reserved for a starter who is off to a terrible start to 2017 (Team W/L of 2-3 and a 3.60 ERA could certainly be worse), but instead for a starting pitcher who is slumping, and has always slumped, against one particular opponent.
The Pirates have been a very competitive team in the National League Central for most of Cole's career (this is his fifth season) but for some strange reason they can not beat the Reds when he pitches. Today will be his ninth career start against Cincinnati and the Pirates are 0-8 in his previous eight outings.
He has never allowed any more than five earned runs against the Reds in any start, but for some reason his team just can't seem to win those games. Snake-bitten.
Monday's Top Trends
* Over is 10-0 in Trevor Bauer's last 10 starts vs. the Detroit Tigers. Total today @ Detroit is set at 9.
* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-8 in Gerrit Cole's eight career starts vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Pirates -125 faves @ Cincy.
* The Miami Marlins are 8-1 in Wei-Yin Chen's last nine starts at home. -130 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 10-1 in Jason Vargas' last 11 starts. Total today vs. White Sox set at 8.5.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
There is a 40-50 percent chance of rain all day on the North Side of Chicago where the Cubs will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town. If this game happens it will feature a 17-20 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field at Wrigley. The total was late arriving, but has been set at 10.5.
One other notable hitter's wind will happen at Busch Stadium in St. Louis where the Cards and Brewers hitters will be enjoying a 13-15 miles per hour breeze blowing straight out to center. The total for that one is currently at 8.5.
Dodgers host struggling rival Giants
By: Brad Kallet
StatFox.com
The Dodgers and the division-rival Giants kick off a three-game series at Dodger Stadium on Monday night.
Neither the Dodgers (14-12) nor the Giants (9-17) have lived up to expectations in the first month of the season, though the former has been far better than the latter. The Dodgers come into the game in third place, .5 games behind the second-place Diamondback and two games behind the first-place Rockies. The Giants are in the cellar in the National League West, sitting seven games behind Colorado. In a battle of the teams’ aces, RHP Johnny Cueto (3-1, 5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) opposes Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 2.29 ERA, 0.79 WHIP). Los Angeles has been hot of late, winning four in a row—including a three-game sweep of the Phillies this past weekend. San Francisco dropped two of three to the Padres this past weekend. These two clubs met last week at AT&T Park, in their first series of 2017, and split a four-game set. Notable Dodgers on the disabled list include 2B Logan Forsythe and CF Joc Pederson. Giants position players on the DL include SS Brandon Crawford and CF Denard Span.
Bruce Bochy’s team has really struggled to score this season. It’s last in the NL in runs (87), last in homers (16), third-to-last in average (.230), second-to-last in OBP (.289) and last in slugging (.342). San Francisco’s most consistent hitter thus far has been C Buster Posey (.354, HR, 3 RBI), though he’s hardly been a run producer. 2B Joe Panik (.301, HR, 8 RBI) is the only other Giants regular hitting over .300. RF Hunter Pence (.266, HR, 10 RBI), 1B Brandon Belt (.250, 4 HR, 11 RBI) and LF Eduardo Nunez (.250, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7 SB) are all hitting below .270, with very limited power. Don’t expect them to break out against Kershaw, who they’ve had plenty of issues with in the past. In 14 career starts against the Dodgers, Cueto is 5-6 with a 2.86 ERA. He earned a no-decision against LA last week, surrendering three earned runs in six innings.
Dave Roberts’ offense is buoyed by his left side of the infield. 3B Justin Turner (.404, HR, 12 RBI, .465 OBP) is second in the NL in hitting and tied for fourth in WAR, and SS Corey Seager (.319, 5 HR, 17 RBI) is one of the most talented young players in the sport. After them, however, this offense falls off dramatically. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.259, 0 HR, 10 RBI) isn’t nearly the threat that he once was, and RF Yasiel Puig (.236, 5 HR, 13 RBI) is essentially an all-or-nothing hitter. Seager (8-for-20, HR, 2B) has hit Cueto hard in the past, as has Turner (9-for-24, HR, 2 2B). 2B Chase Utley (.122, 0 HR, RBI) has been brutal so far in 2017, but he’s had great success against Cueto (12-for-37, HR, 2B, 3 RBI). Kershaw has utterly dominated the Giants in his career, going 19-8 against them with a miniscule 1.57 ERA. His team’s record in those starts is 23-13, and the total has gone under 26 times (over in eight). Kershaw was brilliant in a win over the Giants last week, allowing one earned run in seven innings and recording seven strikeouts to one walk.