MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Phillies @ Marlins
Hellickson is 1-2, 7.66 in his last five starts (under 6-2-2).
Volquez is 0-6, 5.81 in his last six starts (under 6-2-1).
Phillies lost seven of last nine games, are 4-4 in road series openers. Three of their last four games stayed under. Miami is 5-14 in its last 19 games, 2-6 in home series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
Hill is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts (under 4-0).
Leake is 2-1, 2.38 in his last five starts (under 5-3-1).
Dodgers won five of last six games; they’re 1-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. St Louis lost seven of last ten games; they’re 3-6 in home series openers. Four of their last six games stayed under.
Nationals @ Giants
Roark is 1-2, 5.65 in his last five starts (over 7-2-1).
Moore is 1-1, 3.20 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Nationals won five of last seven games; they’re 5-3 in road series openers. Last five Washington games stayed under. San Francisco won seven of last nine home games; they’re 4-3 in home series openers. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Delgado allowed two runs in four IP (61 PT) in his first ’17 start, against the White Sox.
Williams is 1-2, 7.23 in four starts this season (over 2-1-1).
Arizona won its last five road series openers but is 2-9 in other games in those series, so they’re 7-9 in last 16 road games. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost three of last four games; they’re 3-5 in home series openers. Last six Pirate games went over the total.
Brewers @ Mets
Garza is 1-1, 3.65 in his last four starts (over 3-3).
Gsellman is 2-2, 8.63 in his last five starts (over 8-0).
Brewers Mets played in Pittsburgh last night; they’re 7-5 in last 12 home games, 5-4 in home series openers. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Cubs @ Padres
Hendricks is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his road starts.
Cosart is 0-1, 4.70 in four starts this season (over 2-2).
Cubs lost their last five road games; they’re 3-5 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight road tilts. San Diego lost five of last six home games; they’re 5-3 in home series openers. Last four Padre games stayed under the total.
American League
A’s @ Indians
Mengden is making his first ’17 start; he was 2-9, 6.50 in 14 big league starts LY. He is 2-1, 2.21 in four AAA starts this season.
Indians won last four Carrasco starts (2-0, 4.30). Under is 7-2 in his starts.
A’s lost four of last six games; they’re 2-6 in road series openers. Three of their last four games stayed under. Cleveland lost five of last six home games; they’re 2-6 in home series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Red Sox @ White Sox
Price is making his ’17 debut; he was 17-9, 3.99 in 35 starts LY, is 0-0, 9.53 in two AAA rehab starts (5.2 IP total) this month.
Holmberg is making his first ’17 start- he is 3-6, 5.47 in 12 big league starts, mostly with Cincy (last one in 2015). He is 3-0, 1.76 in six AAA games (1 start) this season.
Boston won six of last seven games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Last four Red Sox games stayed under. Chicago won five of last six home games; they’re 2-5 in home series openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games.
New York @ Baltimore
Montgomery is 0-2, 5.09 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
Bundy is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts (under 6-4).
New York won five of last seven games; they’re 4-1 in last five road series openers. Under is 6-1 in last seven Bronx games. Baltimore lost its last seven games; they’re 7-1 in home series openers. Four of last five Oriole games stayed under.
Rays @ Rangers
Ramirez pitched in relief in 15th inning yesterday, will still start here. He is 2-0, 2.76 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
Perez is 1-0, 3.20 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts went over.
Tampa Bay won four of last five games; they’re 5-3 in road series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Texas lost five of last six games; they’re 5-3 in home series openers. Four of Rangers’ last five home games stayed under.
Tigers @ Royals
Norris is 0-1, 5.64 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Hammel is 0-3, 7.11 in his last three starts (under 5-4).
Detroit lost seven of last nine games; they’re 5-4 in road series openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. Kansas City is 5-7 in its last 12 games, 4-4 in home series openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
Astros @ Twins
Peacock blanked the Tigers for 4.1 innings (70 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Santana is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
Astros won six of last seven games; they’re 6-1 in road series openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Minnesota won five of last seven games; they’re 5-4 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Rockies
Gaviglio is 0-1, 4.09 in two starts this year (under 1-0-1).
Chatwood is 2-2, 3.09 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1).
Seattle lost seven of last nine games; they’re 2-7 in road series openers. Last five Mariner games stayed under. Colorado won six of last eight games; they’re 6-2 in home series openers. Under is 9-4 in last 13 games at Coors Field.
Reds @ Blue Jays
Bonilla is 0-2, 5.89 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
Stroman is 3-0, 2.31 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six.
Reds won three of last four games; they’re 5-3 in road series openers. Three of their last four games stayed under. Toronto won five of last six games; they’re 3-5 in home series openers. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Braves @ Angels
Teheran is 1-3, 7.62 in his last five starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Nolasco is 0-2, 4.91 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven.
Atlanta lost four of last five games; they won five of last six road series openers. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Angels lost four of last five games; they’re 4-3 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Phil-Mia: Hellickson 8-2; Volquez 1-8
LA-StL: Hill 1-3; Leake 5-4
Wsh-SF: Roark 7-3; Moore 3-7
Az-Pitt: Delgado 1-0; Williams 2-2
Mil-NY: Garza 4-2; Gsellman 4-4
Chi-SD: Hendricks 5-4; Cosart 2-2
American League
A’s-Clev: Mengden 0-0; Carrasco 7-2
Bos-Chi: Price 0-0; Holmberg 0-0
NY-Balt: Montgomery 3-5; Bundy 6-4 (0-3 last 3)
TB-Tex: Ramirez 3-0; Perez 3-7
Det-KC: Norris 4-5; Hammel 1-8
Hst-Minn: Peacock 1-0; Santana 7-3
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Gaviglio 1-1; Chatwood 4-6
Cin-Tor: Bonilla 1-2; Stroman 6-4 (4-0 last 4)
Atl-LAA: Teheran 3-7; Nolasco 3-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Phil-Mia: Hellickson 4-10; Volquez 5-9
LA-StL: Hill 0-4; Leake 1-9
Wsh-SF: Roark 5-10; Moore 3-10
Az-Pitt: Delgado 0-1; Williams 1-4
Mil-NY: Garza 1-6; Gsellman 5-8
Chi-SD: Hendricks 4-9; Cosart 0-4
American League
A’s-Clev: Mengden 0-0; Carrasco 2-9
Bos-Chi: Price 0-0; Holmberg 0-0
NY-Balt: Montgomery 2-8; Bundy 1-10
TB-Tex: Ramirez 3-3; Perez 4-10
Det-KC: Norris 1-9; Hammel 1-9
Hst-Minn: Peacock 0-1; Santana 2-10
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Gaviglio 1-2; Chatwood 1-10
Cin-Tor: Bonilla 2-3; Stroman 1-10
Atl-LAA: Teheran 4-10; Nolasco 4-10
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 24-11 AL, favorites -$57
AL @ NL– 26-25 AL, favorites +$472
Total: 50-36 AL, favorites +$415
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 18-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 30-19
Total: Over 48-39-1
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Astros (4-0 past four games, 15-5 past 20 overall)
The Astros enter Memorial Day with league's best winning percentage (.686), going 35-16 over the first 51 games with a 10-game lead in the American League West Division. They also lead the AL with a plus-66 run differential, second only to the Dodgers in the majors. The Astros might be even better if they didn't have to face the American League Central. They're just 5-8 against AL Central foes, and on Monday they open a set with division leader Minnesota at Target Field. We'll see if they can stay hot against Ervin Santana, the league leader in ERA at 1.80. The Astros counter with Brad Peacock, who is 2-5 in their past seven road outings against a team with a winning overall mark.
Coldest team Orioles (0-7 past seven games, 3-13 past 16 overall)
The Orioles were jockeying for first place in the American League East, but they have fallen on hard times. They're coming off a three-game sweep in Houston, totally outclassed by the Astros, and they're in the midst of a seven-game losing skid. The O's have averaged just 2.4 runs per game during the losing streak while allowing 5.92 runs per game over the past 13. Baltimore turns to Dylan Bundy to try and end the skid. They're 4-0 in Bundy's past four outings against divisional foes, 5-1 in his past six home starts and 5-2 in his past seven against teams with a winning overall record.
Hottest pitcher: Ervin Santana, Twins (7-2, 1.80 ERA)
Santana checks into Monday's game with the best ERA in the majors at 1.80, edging out Astros' Dallas Keuchel (1.81). The key to his success has been his ability to limit his hits allowed, giving up just 31 hits with 27 walks and 50 strikeouts over 70 innings. Opponents are hitting just .134 against Santana while he has posted an impressive 0.83 WHIP. He'll look to hold down the Astros, who rank seventh in the majors with 252 runs scored. He has yielded seven homers, and the Astros rank third in MLB with 72 clouts. It will be Santana's biggest test to date.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (2-5, 5.28 ERA)
Moore is trending in the right direction with quality starts over his past three outings, but he still has just one win to show for his efforts and he has the highest ERA of any pitcher starting on Memorial Day. He'll also be facing a Washington Nationals offense ranking fourth in the majors with a plus-57 run differential while leading the National League East by 8 1/2 games. Conversely, the Nationals are 24-10 in Tanner Roark's past 34 outings, while going 11-5 over his past 16 road starts. While he has been pitching better, the Giants are still just 2-6 over Moore's past eight starts, and 0-4 over his past four assignments against teams with a winning percentage over .600.
Biggest UNDER run: Rays (7-1 past eight games overall)
The Rays erupted for eight runs in a win Sunday in Minnesota, snapping a seven-game under streak. It was a rare showing of offense, as they entered Sunday's game averaging just 3.0 runs per game during their seven-game under run. While the under is 7-1 over their past eight outings, the 'over' is 6-1 in Erasmo Ramirez's past seven road outings and 4-1 in his past five outings. The 'under' is 4-0 in their past four against AL West foes and 4-0 in their past four road games against a team with a losing record. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five home games for Texas, but the under is 5-1-1 in Martin Perez's past seven home starts and 11-2 in the past 13 series openers for the Rangers.
Biggest OVER run: Marlins (6-2-1 past nine games overall)
The 'over' has been the play for Miami lately, although it's a mix of their offense and poor pitching. Their offense has been a bit erratic, recording run totals of 10, three, 11, one, eight, two and nine over the past seven outings. The Marlins are allowing 6.08 runs per game over the past 12 outings. The under is 22-9 in Miami's past 31 games against teams with a winning percentage under .400, and the over is 15-5-2 in the past 22 series openers for the Marlins. However, the 'under' is 4-1 in Edinson Volquez's past five starts and 7-2-2 in Jeremy Hellickson's past 11 starts overall for the Phillies. The under is also 6-0-1 in Hellickson's past seven starts against Miami, so the over streak will be put to the test.
Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Tigers
The Royals and Tigers do battle at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City in a battle between two of the more disappointing teams in baseball. Each club entered the season with high hopes in the American League Central, but it hasn't gone according to plan. It might get worse for the Royals, who roll out Jason Hammel to face the Tigers. He has an abysmal 7.98 career ERA in nine appearances (six starts) against Detroit, posting a 2-2 record. Meanwhile, Daniel Norris enters with a 0-1 record and 3.47 ERA in four career outings against K.C. The Tigers enter just 1-4 over their past five overall, 0-4 in their past four road games agaisnt a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their past four vs. RHP. The Royals are just 1-8 over Hammel's past nine outings, 1-4 in their past five home starts and 4-10 in their past 14 games against teams with a losing overall record.
Betcha didn’t know: The Opening Day starter for the Angels, Ricky Nolasco, has faced Atlanta plenty over his career. He enters with a 6-10 record and a 5.11 ERA in 23 starts and one relief appearance in his career against the Braves. Meanwhile, Julio Teheran hasn't been much better, going 3-9 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 career interleague starts. The Braves are 1-4 over Teheran's past five outings, 0-5 in their past five against AL West foes and 12-26 in their past 38 interleague outings. On the flip side, the Halos are 4-0 in their past four at home and 4-0 in their past four home games against a right-handed starter. The Anges are also 4-1 in Nolasco's past five home starts against a team with a losing record.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-250) vs. Athletics
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+115) at Royals
Biggest line move: Indians (-210 to -250) vs. Athletics
Tigers, Royals meet Monday night
By: StatFox.com
The Royals will be looking to earn a big victory over the Tigers on Monday night.
Both Detroit and Kansas City are not off to the starts that they were hoping for this season. Both teams find themselves behind in the AL Central standings, but there is still time for that to change. The Twins are currently up near the top, but it’s very possible that they are going to slide at some point. Minnesota has plenty of young talent, but the team was not supposed to be ready for the postseason just yet. Cleveland, meanwhile, is not performing up to expectations. That makes this a wide-open race for the division, and both the Tigers and Royals know that. They just need to start playing to their potential. The starters for this Monday showdown are going to be LHP Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.38 ERA, 44 K) for Detroit and RHP Jason Hammel (1-6, 5.98 ERA, 38 K) for Kansas City. Both guys are capable of having some poor outings, so do not be surprised if this thing goes Over the total.
The Tigers can really use a win in Kansas City on Monday, but that means that Daniel Norris will need to pitch a good game for Detroit. Norris is coming off of one of his best starts of the season for the Tigers, as he allowed just one earned run in 6.1 innings of work against the Astros in Houston on May 24. That is one of the most potent lineups in baseball, so Norris’ confidence should be high when he takes the mound on Monday. He will, however, need to do his best to limit his walks. The lefty has walked two or more batters in all of his starts this season, and it’d be huge if he can avoid putting guys on easily here. Offensively, 3B Miguel Cabrera is somebody that is going to need to step his game up in this one. He has done pretty well against Jason Hammel in his career, going 5-for-13 with two doubles against the righty. He’ll need to find a way to get to him here as well. OF J.D. Martinez and 2B Ian Kinsler can also do some damage here. Both have homered off of Hammel and it’d be huge if they do it again on Monday.
Jason Hammel has really struggled this season, but he is coming off of one of his best starts of the season for the Royals. Hammel pitched six innings against the Yankees in that start on May 24, allowing just three earned runs and striking out seven batters. His teammates did not provide any run support for him, and that can’t be the case again on Monday. Offensively, a few guys are going to need to come ready to hit in this game. One guy that might be able to provide a spark is SS Alcides Escobar. Escobar has been downright awful for Kansas City this season, but he is 4-for-9 with a homer and three RBI against Norris in his career. This matchup could be just what the doctor ordered for the struggling 30-year-old. Another guy that should be able to play well here is OF Lorenzo Cain. It’s a small sample size, but Cain is 3-for-5 with a double against Norris in their limited matchups. Cain has also struggled this year, so he’ll definitely be looking forward to this one.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (-150, 11)
The Rockies welcome the Mariners to Denver for the first two games of this four-game home-and-home series, before the scene shifts to Seattle for the final two games.
Today's game features a starting pitching matchup involving a solid young arm against an established veteran looking to put it all together once again - we're siding with the veteran on Memorial Day.
Sam Gaviglio has made two starts for the Mariners and has been pretty good, allowing only one earned run (five total runs) in two starts. However, there are three major factors in fading the Mariners today: making your first start at Coors Field has a way of rattling even the coolest of customers on the mound, Gaviglio has only three strikeouts in two major league starts and not being able to miss bats in Denver can be deadly, the M's can only expect to get five or six innings out of their starter which will bring their awful bullpen into play in the later innings (4.97 ERA - 27th in MLB).
Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for the Rockies and he has been a bit sketchy to start the season, but he is coming off his best start of 2017. On Wednesday in Philadelphia, Chatwood held the Phillies to just one hit over seven shutout innings in the Rockies' 7-2 road victory. Walks continue to be an issue for the right-hander, but it shouldn't matter at home against the struggling Mariners.
The Rockies lead the very strong National League West at 33-19 while the Mariners have lost eight of their last 10 road games and are last in the American League West at 22-29.
Pick: Rockies -150
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (-110, 9)
The Phillies travel to Miami to take on the Marlins in the opening game of this three-game series. Today's game features a very interesting pitching matchup with MLB's top betting money starter (Jeremy Hellickson $789) taking on MLB's second worst betting money starter (Edinson Volquez $-701). It's also very interesting that the Marlins are fairly large -155 favorites with their underachieving starter on the hill.
We, however, are going to focus on the total for this evening's contest. Hellickson has been rock solid for the Phillies in 2017. He was beat around a bit by the Rockies in his last start (seven earned runs over five innings) but over the last three seasons he has not allowed more than three runs in his nine starts against the Marlins, and dominated them over six strong innings earlier this season. In those last nine starts for Hellickson against Miami the Under is 9-0-1.
While Volquez hasn't been winning games for the Marlins, and winning is certainly what they pay him to do, he hasn't really been pitching as poorly as his 0-7 record would indicate. He's been the victim of some bullpen blown games and a lack of run support (2.11 runs per game this season and only 1.67 runs per game at home). For selfish reasons we certainly hope this lack of run support continues Monday night.
It's also worth noting that Under has cashed in Volquez's last seven starts against the Phillies and all three of his home starts this season.
Pick: Under 9
Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season to Date: 46-38-4
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins (7-2, 1.80 ERA, $435)
Despite a couple of rough starts over the last three weeks against the Rockies and Red Sox, Ervin Santana's full body of work this season will still qualify him as a streaking starter. His 7-2 win/loss record and tidy 1.80 ERA certainly put him among the top five starters in the American League over the first two months of the season.
Santana's last trip to the hill was a brilliant complete game, two-hit shutout against the Baltimore Orioles. Ervin will look to continue his winning ways as a home underdog (+110) this afternoon against the visiting Houston Astros
Slumping: Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals (1-6, 5.98 ERA, $-701)
This isn't exactly what the Kansas City Royals were hoping for when the brought Jason Hammel into their rotation for the 2017 season. The 2016 World Series Champion is only 1-6 with an ERA of 5.98 in 2017 and over his last three starts he is 0-3 with a rather bulbous ERA of 6.63.
Hammel and the Royals are a Pick 'Em this evening against Daniel Norris and the visiting Detroit Tigers.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Chicago White Sox are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. +160 today vs. Red Sox.
* Under is 10-1-2 in Rich Hill's last 13 starts overall. Dodgers/Cardinals Total: 8.5.
* Over is 10-1 in Robert Gsellman's last 11 starts overall. Brewers/Mets Total: 8.
* The Miami Marlins are 3-11 in their last 14 home games. -150 tonight vs. Phillies.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Rain shouldn't be much of a factor on this Memorial Day Monday across the league. There is a slight change of a thunderstorm developing in Baltimore where the Orioles will welcome the New York Yankees this afternoon and there is a 30 percent chance of a rain shower in Minneapolis for the contest between the Twins and the visiting Houston Astros.
That same game between the Astros and Twins will feature a stiff 15-10 mile per hour breeze blowing out to right-center field and there will also be hitter's winds in Chicago, where the Red Sox will be in town to take on the White Sox (15-20 MPH), and in San Francisco for the game between the Giants and the Washington Nationals (20 MPH).
Monday MLB Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Tampa Bay (+134), Texas (-144); Total set at 9.5
Memorial Day is always a great one for baseball bettors as there are games going on throughout the day, and this year we've got the series opener between the Rays and Rangers in Arlington as some night action.
Both teams have been playing some good baseball at times recently, but as of now, the Rays come in having won four of five, while Texas snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 win in Toronto yesterday.
Texas has been the team attracting all the early money so far, but will those bettors finish today with a winning ticket in their hands?
The Rangers are playing that dreaded “first game at home after a long road trip” tonight and given how they played on that road trip (3-6 SU) and having a struggling Martin Perez on the hill tonight, all of the support for Texas is a bit strange.
This line opened up in the -110/115 range for the Rangers and despite about a 60/40 split according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, the line has jumped all the way to it's current price.
That's quite a few big bets placed on a Rangers team who is just 3-7 SU in Perez's 10 starts this season, and for a pitcher who has been tattooed to the tune of 5 runs allowed/game and 18 hits over 19.2 innings of work in his last three starts.
Perez was also 0-2 SU against this Rays team last year and neither outing was particularly good with 8-4 and 6-4 final scores. So if the bulk of bettors are going to give more value on the Tampa side of this line in a game that likely should be priced where it opened up, I'll happily take the extra value.
Tampa has won four of five and send Erasmo Ramirez to the hill and there is no question that his career reputation has something to do with the flood of Texas supporters.
Ramirez has never been more than a 4th or 5th starter for the Rays, but in three starts this year he's actually pitched very well.
Ramirez enters tonight with a 2.92 ERA in those three starts and as only allowed 2.3 runs/game in those outings. Holding down the opposition to that kind of spread will always give your team a chance to win the game, and thanks to the 6 runs/game in support Ramirez gets, the Rays are a perfect 3-0 SU in his starts so far.
Right now, Tampa is the team that's playing better baseball, had the better travel schedule heading into this game, and get to face a pitcher that the majority of their roster has had success against in the past.
Add in the notion that the Rangers are getting overvalued by many tonight, and the price is definitely right to back a Rays team looking to continue their winning ways.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay +134